Articles | Volume 24, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12259-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12259-2024
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
06 Nov 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 06 Nov 2024

Tropospheric links to uncertainty in stratospheric subseasonal predictions

Rachel W.-Y. Wu, Gabriel Chiodo, Inna Polichtchouk, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen

Related authors

A process-based evaluation of biases in extratropical stratosphere-troposphere coupling in subseasonal forecast systems
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Zachary D. Lawrence, Amy H. Butler, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Irene Erner, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Gerbrand Koren, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzaguena, David Barriopedro, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Judah Cohen, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Javier García-Serrano, Neil P. Hindley, Martin Jucker, Hera Kim, Robert W. Lee, Simon H. Lee, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Inna Polichtchouk, Jian Rao, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1762,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1762, 2024
Short summary
Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems
Zachary D. Lawrence, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Amy H. Butler, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Javier García-Serrano, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Neil P. Hindley, Liwei Jia, Martin Jucker, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Hera Kim, Andrea L. Lang, Simon H. Lee, Pu Lin, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Judith Perlwitz, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Irene Erner, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 977–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, 2022
Short summary
Differences in the sub-seasonal predictability of extreme stratospheric events
Rachel Wai-Ying Wu, Zheng Wu, and Daniela I.V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 755–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-755-2022, 2022
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Age of air from in situ trace gas measurements: insights from a new technique
Eric A. Ray, Fred L. Moore, Hella Garny, Eric J. Hintsa, Bradley D. Hall, Geoff S. Dutton, David Nance, James W. Elkins, Steven C. Wofsy, Jasna Pittman, Bruce Daube, Bianca C. Baier, Jianghanyang Li, and Colm Sweeney
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12425–12445, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12425-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12425-2024, 2024
Short summary
The impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the total column ozone over the Tibetan Plateau
Yang Li, Wuhu Feng, Xin Zhou, Yajuan Li, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8277–8293, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8277-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8277-2024, 2024
Short summary
Exploring ozone variability in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using dynamical coordinates
Luis F. Millán, Peter Hoor, Michaela I. Hegglin, Gloria L. Manney, Harald Boenisch, Paul Jeffery, Daniel Kunkel, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Hao Ye, Thierry Leblanc, and Kaley Walker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7927–7959, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7927-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7927-2024, 2024
Short summary
Climatology of the terms and variables of transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) equations from multiple reanalyses: MERRA-2, JRA-55, ERA-Interim, and CFSR
Masatomo Fujiwara, Patrick Martineau, Jonathon S. Wright, Marta Abalos, Petr Šácha, Yoshio Kawatani, Sean M. Davis, Thomas Birner, and Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7873–7898, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Quasi-biennial oscillation modulation of stratospheric water vapour in the Asian monsoon
Cristina Peña-Ortiz, Nuria Pilar Plaza, David Gallego, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5457–5478, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5457-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5457-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Afargan-Gerstman, H. and Domeisen, D. I. V.: Pacific Modulation of the North Atlantic Storm Track Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085007, 2020. a
Afargan-Gerstman, H., Büeler, D., Wulff, C. O., Sprenger, M., and Domeisen, D. I. V.: Stratospheric influence on the winter North Atlantic storm track in subseasonal reforecasts, Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-231-2024, 2024. a
Albers, J. R. and Birner, T.: Vortex preconditioning due to planetary and gravity waves prior to sudden stratospheric warmings, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 4028–4054, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0026.1, 2014. a, b
Ayarzagüena, B., Barriopedro, D., Garrido-Perez, J. M., Abalos, M., de la Cámara, A., García-Herrera, R., Calvo, N., and Ordóñez, C.: Stratospheric Connection to the Abrupt End of the 2016/2017 Iberian Drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12639–12646, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079802, 2018. a
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes, Science, 294, 581–584, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1063315, 2001. a
Download
Executive editor
There has been much emphasis on the increased predictability of the extratropical tropospheric circulation after stratospheric sudden warmings and the potential value of this to weather forecasting. But it remains the case that the sudden warmings themselves, which are significantly (but not exclusively) driven by variabiliity in the troposphere, have limited predictability. This paper uses ensemble forecasts to identify tropospheric circulation features that, if poorly predicted in the period prior to a sudden warming, lead to a poor prediction of the warming itself and hence provides a potentially useful focus for future improvements to forecast models.
Short summary
Strong variations in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex can profoundly affect surface weather extremes; therefore, accurately predicting the stratosphere can improve surface weather forecasts. The research reveals how uncertainty in the stratosphere is linked to the troposphere. The findings suggest that refining models to better represent the identified sources and impact regions in the troposphere is likely to improve the prediction of the stratosphere and its surface impacts.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint