Articles | Volume 24, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12259-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12259-2024
Research article
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06 Nov 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 06 Nov 2024

Tropospheric links to uncertainty in stratospheric subseasonal predictions

Rachel W.-Y. Wu, Gabriel Chiodo, Inna Polichtchouk, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen

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There has been much emphasis on the increased predictability of the extratropical tropospheric circulation after stratospheric sudden warmings and the potential value of this to weather forecasting. But it remains the case that the sudden warmings themselves, which are significantly (but not exclusively) driven by variabiliity in the troposphere, have limited predictability. This paper uses ensemble forecasts to identify tropospheric circulation features that, if poorly predicted in the period prior to a sudden warming, lead to a poor prediction of the warming itself and hence provides a potentially useful focus for future improvements to forecast models.
Short summary
Strong variations in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex can profoundly affect surface weather extremes; therefore, accurately predicting the stratosphere can improve surface weather forecasts. The research reveals how uncertainty in the stratosphere is linked to the troposphere. The findings suggest that refining models to better represent the identified sources and impact regions in the troposphere is likely to improve the prediction of the stratosphere and its surface impacts.
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