Articles | Volume 24, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12259-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12259-2024
Research article
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06 Nov 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 06 Nov 2024

Tropospheric links to uncertainty in stratospheric subseasonal predictions

Rachel W.-Y. Wu, Gabriel Chiodo, Inna Polichtchouk, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1652', Anonymous Referee #1, 20 Jun 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1652', Anonymous Referee #2, 30 Jun 2024
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1652', Anonymous Referee #3, 02 Jul 2024
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1652', Rachel Wai-Ying Wu, 29 Aug 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Rachel Wai-Ying Wu on behalf of the Authors (29 Aug 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (04 Sep 2024) by Petr Šácha
AR by Rachel Wai-Ying Wu on behalf of the Authors (11 Sep 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (17 Sep 2024) by Petr Šácha
AR by Rachel Wai-Ying Wu on behalf of the Authors (20 Sep 2024)
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Executive editor
There has been much emphasis on the increased predictability of the extratropical tropospheric circulation after stratospheric sudden warmings and the potential value of this to weather forecasting. But it remains the case that the sudden warmings themselves, which are significantly (but not exclusively) driven by variabiliity in the troposphere, have limited predictability. This paper uses ensemble forecasts to identify tropospheric circulation features that, if poorly predicted in the period prior to a sudden warming, lead to a poor prediction of the warming itself and hence provides a potentially useful focus for future improvements to forecast models.
Short summary
Strong variations in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex can profoundly affect surface weather extremes; therefore, accurately predicting the stratosphere can improve surface weather forecasts. The research reveals how uncertainty in the stratosphere is linked to the troposphere. The findings suggest that refining models to better represent the identified sources and impact regions in the troposphere is likely to improve the prediction of the stratosphere and its surface impacts.
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