Articles | Volume 24, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10717-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10717-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Sep 2024
Research article |
| 25 Sep 2024
| 25 Sep 2024
The co-benefits of a low-carbon future for PM2.5 and O3 air pollution in Europe
Institute of Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Woodhouse, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
Daniel R. Marsh
School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Leeds, Woodhouse, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
Steven T. Turnock
Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Met Office Strategic (LUMOS) Research Group, University of Leeds, Woodhouse, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
Ailish M. Graham
Institute of Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Woodhouse, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
Kirsty J. Pringle
Sustainable Software Institute, University of Edinburgh, Old College, South Bridge, Edinburgh, EH8 9YL, United Kingdom
Carly L. Reddington
Institute of Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Woodhouse, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
Rajesh Kumar
National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Dr, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
James B. McQuaid
Institute of Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Woodhouse, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
Related authors
No articles found.
Worapop Thongsame, Daven Henze, Gabriele Pfister, Rajesh Kumar, and Mary Barth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2309, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2309, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Air pollution from nitrogen oxides threatens human health in Thailand. We used a brand new geostationary satellite (GEMS) to measure air pollution and update emissions for modeling in Thailand. Our updated emissions improve model performance compared to other satellites. Additionally, our work reveals data inconsistencies in North Thailand between two satellites. This shows the potential of geostationary satellites and the requirement for calibration and bias correction.
Dylan B. A. Jones, Lucas Prates, Zhen Qu, William Y. Y. Cheng, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Takashi Sekiya, Antje Inness, Rajesh Kumar, Xiao Tang, Helen Worden, Gerbrand Koren, and Vincent Huijnen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 6655–6682, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6655-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6655-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate five chemical reanalysis products to assess their potential to provide useful information on tropospheric ozone variability. We find that the reanalyses produce consistent information on ozone variations in the free troposphere, but have large discrepancies at the surface. The results suggests that improvements in the reanalyses are needed to better exploit the assimilated observations to enhance the utility of the reanalysis products at the surface.
Joseph Robinson, Martin I. Daily, Polly B. Foster, Jack P. Macklin, James B. McQuaid, Mark D. Tarn, and Benjamin J. Murray
Aerosol Research Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-2026-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-2026-17, 2026
Preprint under review for AR
Short summary
Short summary
Ice formation in many clouds is initiated by airborne particles, which are often measured by collecting them on a filter and washing them into water for analysis. Using controlled laboratory experiments, we show that some of these particles adhere strongly to the filter and are not recovered. As a result, this common method can underestimate how many ice-forming particles are present in the atmosphere.
Stephanie Fiedler, Fiona M. O'Connor, Duncan Watson-Parris, Robert J. Allen, William J. Collins, Paul T. Griffiths, Matthew Kasoar, Jarmo Kikstra, Jasper F. Kok, Lee T. Murray, Fabien Paulot, Maria Sand, Steven T. Turnock, James Weber, Laura J. Wilcox, and Vaishali Naik
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 3477–3508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3477-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3477-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project phase two (AerChemMIP2) allows the community to compare results from contemporary Earth system models. AerChemMIP2 is asking modelling centres to perform experiments following the same protocol. It includes experiments for enabling new science and for tracking progress. Model output will be used for addressing research and policy questions about anthropogenic and natural drivers of climate change, and the impacts on air quality.
Leandro C. Segado-Moreno, Juan Pedro Montávez, Ginés Garnés-Morales, Eloisa Raluy-López, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, and Rajesh Kumar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2127, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on improving models that simulate how mineral dust is emitted and transported in the atmosphere. We created two new, more detailed maps of soils and terrain to better represent where dust is generated. As a case study, we use dust events coming from North Africa affecting Spain. Results show that the improved data helps the model match observed air pollution better, especially during dust episodes in inland areas.
Tim Butler, Tabish Ansari, Claudio A. Belis, Elisa Bergas-Masso, Willem van Caspel, Hilde Fagerli, Johannes Flemming, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Paul Griffiths, Douglas S. Hamilton, Coralina Hernandez Trujillo, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Vincent Huijnen, Matthew Kasoar, Johannes W. Kaiser, Gerbrand Koren, Zbigniew Klimont, Florian Lindl, Aura Lupascu, Mariano Mertens, Martijn Schaap, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Philipp Weiss, Jacek Kaminski, Rosa Wu, and Terry Keating
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1367, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1367, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Air pollution travels across continents, meaning emissions in one region can affect air quality far away. To better understand this, scientists from many groups are planning to run coordinated computer simulations of the atmosphere. By comparing results across models and emission scenarios, the planned study will show how pollution moves between regions and which sources matter most, helping governments design more effective air quality policies.
Rajmal Jat, Akash Sagar Vispute, Sachin D. Ghude, Rajesh Kumar, Vinayak Sinha, Baerbel Sinha, Gaurav Govardhan, Zhining Tao, Prafull P. Yadav, Sandeep Wagh, Sreyashi Debnath, Aditi Rathore, and Madhavan Rajeevan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1302, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a simplified and computationally efficient secondary organic aerosol parameterization in the MOZART–GOCART scheme within WRF-Chem using volatile organic compound observations in Delhi. This parameterization was evaluated for a period with severe pollution influenced by crop residue burning. Results show that the approach improves the model’s ability to reproduce organic aerosols and fine particulate matter while remaining much faster than more complex chemical schemes.
Gregory Cooke, Dan Marsh, Catherine Walsh, Felix Sainsbury-Martinez, and Marrick Braam
Clim. Past, 22, 483–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-483-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-483-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
During the Archean eon (4–2.4 Gyr ago), Earth's atmosphere lacked oxygen (O2) but contained nitrogen, carbon dioxide, and methane. As cyanobacteria evolved, they produced O2, while hydrogen (H) escaped, making Earth more oxidized. Around 2.4 billion years ago, O2 levels rose, limiting hydrogen loss. Using 3D computer simulations, we found that atmospheric O2 concentrations affect the upward diffusion of water vapor (H2O). We therefore quantify the rate of hydrogen escape as O2 changes.
Maria P. Velásquez-García, Richard J. Pope, Steven T. Turnock, Chetan Deva, David P. Moore, Guilherme Mataveli, Steve R. Arnold, Ruth M. Doherty, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Biogeosciences, 23, 1341–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-1341-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-1341-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Incorporating fire simulation into climate models is crucial for accurately representing interactions between fires, ecosystems, and climate, thereby enhancing climate projections. In South America, the INFERNO (Interactive Fires and Emissions algorithm for Natural Environments) fire model broadly captures CO emissions in active fire zones, e.g., the Amazon Arc of Deforestation. Still, it tends to overestimate emissions in tree-rich ecosystems, where INFERNO is too sensitive to low soil moisture, and to underestimate emissions in less tree-abundant ecosystems.
Jie Zhang, Kalli Furtado, Steven T. Turnock, Yixiong Lu, Tongwen Wu, Fang Zhang, Xiaoge Xin, and Yuyun Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 2175–2189, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-2175-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-2175-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol cooling has been identified as a key driver of the cold biases in CMIP6 (sixth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project) models. We demonstrate the critical role of sulfate burden anomaly and the contribution of sulfur removal processes. Faster sulfate deposition directly lowers atmospheric sulfate levels, while enhanced SO₂ deposition reduces the precursor for sulfate formation. The systematically short sulfate lifetime implies that model improvements should focus on SO₂ deposition processes, rather than sulfate deposition.
Ruth M. Doherty, Zhenze Liu, Massimo Vieno, Oliver Wild, Fiona M. O'Connor, Steven T. Turnock, Christina M. Hood, Jenny R. Stocker, Mathew R. Heal, Dwayne E. Heard, Emma G. Sands, David J. Carruthers, and Lisa K. Whalley
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6407, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a coupled model approach to investigate key processes determining how climate change impacts 21st-century air quality. Elevated isoprene emissions drive summer ozone and fine particulate matter increases over continental Europe; but their response to climate change is uncertain. Unabated climate change, without emission reductions, poses a challenge for achieving ozone, fine particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide long-term air quality guidelines over much of Europe by 2100.
Zhenze Liu, Ke Li, Oliver Wild, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O’Connor, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 16969–16981, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16969-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16969-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Chemistry-climate models have advanced substantially over the decades, yet they still exhibit substantial systematic biases in simulating atmospheric composition due to gaps in our understanding of underlying processes. We improve the predictions of an Earth system model using deep learning, and evaluate the performance of difference types of statistical models. We find that simulations of future surface ozone are likely to become less accurate under a warmer climate.
Antonio G. Bruno, David P. Moore, Jeremy J. Harrison, Ailish Graham, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5109, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Indonesian peatlands store vast carbon reserves, but can release large quantities of greenhouse gases and other species with significant environmental impacts, including HCN, when fires occur. Analyzing three major El Niño years with satellites and models, we found that emissions depend on local hydrological conditions, not just El Niño strength. Including soil moisture and burn depth can improve emission estimates and climate strategies.
Miriam Sinnhuber, Christina Arras, Stefan Bender, Bernd Funke, Hanli Liu, Daniel R. Marsh, Thomas Reddmann, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Monika E. Szelag, and Jan Maik Wissing
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 14719–14734, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-14719-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-14719-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Nitric oxide in the upper atmosphere varies with solar activity. Observations show that this starts a chain of processes affecting the ozone layer and climate system. This is often underestimated in models. We compare five models which show large differences in simulated NO. Analysis of these discrepancies identify two processes which interact with each other: the balance between atomic and molecular oxygen in the thermosphere, and a poleward - downward transport in the winter thermosphere.
Naoki Mizukami, Samar Minallah, Cenlin He, Chayan Roychoudhury, William Y.Y. Cheng, and Rajesh Kumar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4586, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We examined how air pollution particles that darken snow affect water resources in High Mountain Asia, a region that supplies rivers vital to millions of populations. Using computer models, we found that these particles cause snow to melt two weeks to a month earlier, shifting when water becomes available. This leads to more runoff at first but less later in the year, slightly reducing annual river flow. The findings highlight the need to link air pollution control with water management.
Kirsty J. Pringle, Richard Rigby, Steven T. Turnock, Carly L. Reddington, Meruyert Shayakhmetova, Malcolm Illingworth, Denis Barclay, Neil Chue Hong, Ed Hawkins, Douglas S. Hamilton, Ethan Brain, and James B. McQuaid
Geosci. Commun., 8, 229–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-8-229-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-8-229-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Air Quality Stripes images visualise historical changes in particulate matter air pollution in over 150 cities worldwide. The project celebrates significant improvements in air quality in regions like Europe, North America, and China while highlighting the urgent need for action in areas such as central Asia. Designed to raise awareness, the images aim to inspire discussions about the critical impact of air pollution and the global inequalities it causes.
Chayan Roychoudhury, Rajesh Kumar, Cenlin He, William Y. Y. Cheng, Kirpa Ram, Naoki Mizukami, and Avelino F. Arellano
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-275, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-275, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We present a 17-year, 12 km regional dataset for Asia that uniquely captures aerosol–weather–snow interactions. By assimilating satellite data into a chemistry–climate model, it provides hourly to three-hourly fields of meteorology, air quality, and snow-related variables. Evaluations show good agreement with observations, and source attribution of black carbon is also provided to quantify pollution pathways to Asia’s glaciers, major freshwater source for over a billion people.
Chayan Roychoudhury, Cenlin He, Rajesh Kumar, and Avelino F. Arellano Jr.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1237–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1237-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1237-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel data-driven approach to understand how pollution and weather processes interact to influence snowmelt in Asian glaciers and how these interactions are represented in three climate models. Our findings show where models need improvement in predicting snowmelt, particularly dust and its transport. This method can support future model development for reliable predictions in climate-vulnerable regions.
Paul T. Griffiths, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Michael Prather, Alex Archibald, Florence Brown, Makoto Deushi, William Collins, Stephanie Fiedler, Naga Oshima, Lee T. Murray, Bjørn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Steven Turnock, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Paul J. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8289–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) aimed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. We review its contribution to AR6 (Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and the wider understanding of the role of these species in climate and climate change. We identify challenges and provide recommendations to improve the utility and uptake of climate model data, detailed summary tables of CMIP6 models, experiments, and emergent diagnostics.
Steven T. Turnock, Dimitris Akritidis, Larry Horowitz, Mariano Mertens, Andrea Pozzer, Carly L. Reddington, Hantao Wang, Putian Zhou, and Fiona O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7111–7136, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7111-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7111-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the drivers behind changes in peak-season surface ozone concentrations and risks to human health between 1850 and 2014. Substantial increases in surface ozone have occurred over this period, resulting in an increased risk to human health, driven mainly by increases in anthropogenic NOx emissions and global CH4 concentrations. Fixing anthropogenic NOx emissions at 1850 values in the near-present-day period can eliminate the risk to human health associated with exposure to surface ozone.
Rajesh Kumar, Piyush Bhardwaj, Cenlin He, Jennifer Boehnert, Forrest Lacey, Stefano Alessandrini, Kevin Sampson, Matthew Casali, Scott Swerdlin, Olga Wilhelmi, Gabriele G. Pfister, Benjamin Gaubert, and Helen Worden
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1807–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1807-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1807-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We have created a 14-year hourly air quality dataset at 12 km resolution by combining satellite observations of atmospheric composition with air quality models over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The dataset has been found to reproduce key observed features of air quality over the CONUS. To enable easy visualization and interpretation of county-level air quality measures and trends by stakeholders, an ArcGIS air quality dashboard has also been developed.
Aishah I. Shittu, Kirsty J. Pringle, Stephen R. Arnold, Richard J. Pope, Ailish M. Graham, Carly Reddington, Richard Rigby, and James B. McQuaid
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 817–828, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-817-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-817-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study highlighted the performance of Atmotube PRO sensor particulate matter (PM) data. The result showed inter-sensor variability among the Atmotube PRO sensor data. This study showed 62.5 % of the sensors used for the study exhibited greater precision in their PM2.5 measurements. The overall performance showed that sensors passed the base testing using 1 h averaged data and that a multiple linear regression model using relative humidity values improved the performance of the PM2.5 data.
Weiyu Zhang, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Cyril J. Morcrette, Wuhu Feng, Kalli Furtado, Paul R. Field, Chih-Chieh Chen, Andrew Gettelman, Piers M. Forster, Daniel R. Marsh, and Alexandru Rap
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 473–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-473-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-473-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Contrail cirrus is the largest, but also most uncertain, contribution of aviation to global warming. We evaluate, for the first time, the impact of the host climate model on contrail cirrus properties. Substantial differences exist between contrail cirrus formation, persistence, and radiative effects in the host climate models. Reliable contrail cirrus simulations require advanced representation of cloud optical properties and microphysics, which should be better constrained by observations.
Ross J. Herbert, Alberto Sanchez-Marroquin, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Kirsty J. Pringle, Stephen R. Arnold, Benjamin J. Murray, and Kenneth S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 291–325, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-291-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-291-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol particles that help form ice in clouds vary in number and type around the world and with time. However, in many weather and climate models cloud ice is not linked to aerosols that are known to nucleate ice. Here we report the first steps towards representing ice-nucleating particles within the UK Earth System Model. We conclude that in addition to ice nucleation by sea spray and mineral components of soil dust, we also need to represent ice nucleation by the organic components of soils.
Erin N. Raif, Sarah L. Barr, Mark D. Tarn, James B. McQuaid, Martin I. Daily, Steven J. Abel, Paul A. Barrett, Keith N. Bower, Paul R. Field, Kenneth S. Carslaw, and Benjamin J. Murray
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 14045–14072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) allow ice to form in clouds at temperatures warmer than −35°C. We measured INP concentrations over the Norwegian and Barents seas in weather events where cold air is ejected from the Arctic. These concentrations were among the highest measured in the Arctic. It is likely that the INPs were transported to the Arctic from distant regions. These results show it is important to consider hemispheric-scale INP processes to understand INP concentrations in the Arctic.
Flossie Brown, Gerd Folberth, Stephen Sitch, Paulo Artaxo, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, Alexander W. Cheesman, Matteo Detto, Ninong Komala, Luciana Rizzo, Nestor Rojas, Ines dos Santos Vieira, Steven Turnock, Hans Verbeeck, and Alfonso Zambrano
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12537–12555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone is a pollutant that is detrimental to human and plant health. Ozone monitoring sites in the tropics are limited, so models are often used to understand ozone exposure. We use measurements from the tropics to evaluate ozone from the UK Earth system model, UKESM1. UKESM1 is able to capture the pattern of ozone in the tropics, except in southeast Asia, although it systematically overestimates it at all sites. This work highlights that UKESM1 can capture seasonal and hourly variability.
Jianfei Wu, Wuhu Feng, Xianghui Xue, Daniel Robert Marsh, and John Maurice Campbell Plane
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12133–12141, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Metal layers occur in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region 80–120 km from the ablation of cosmic dust. Nonmigrating diurnal tides are persistent global oscillations. We investigate nonmigrating diurnal tidal variations in metal layers using satellite observations and global climate model simulations; these have not been studied previously due to the limitations of measurements. The nonmigrating diurnal tides in temperature are strongly linked to the corresponding change in metal layers.
Matthew S. Johnson, Sajeev Philip, Scott Meech, Rajesh Kumar, Meytar Sorek-Hamer, Yoichi P. Shiga, and Jia Jung
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10363–10384, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10363-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10363-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Satellites, like the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), retrieve proxy species of ozone (O3) formation (formaldehyde and nitrogen dioxide) and the ratios (FNRs) which can define O3 production sensitivity regimes. Here we investigate trends of OMI FNRs from 2005 to 2021, and they have increased in major cities, suggesting a transition from radical- to NOx-limited regimes. OMI also observed the impact of reduced emissions during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown that resulted in increased FNRs.
Andrew O. Langford, Raul J. Alvarez II, Kenneth C. Aikin, Sunil Baidar, W. Alan Brewer, Steven S. Brown, Matthew M. Coggan, Patrick D. Cullis, Jessica Gilman, Georgios I. Gkatzelis, Detlev Helmig, Bryan J. Johnson, K. Emma Knowland, Rajesh Kumar, Aaron D. Lamplugh, Audra McClure-Begley, Brandi J. McCarty, Ann M. Middlebrook, Gabriele Pfister, Jeff Peischl, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Pamela S. Rickley, Andrew W. Rollins, Scott P. Sandberg, Christoph J. Senff, and Carsten Warneke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1938, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
High ozone (O3) formed by reactions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) can harm human health and welfare. High O3 is usually associated with hot summer days, but under certain conditions, high O3 can also form under winter conditions. In this study, we describe a high O3 event that occurred in Colorado during the COVID-19 quarantine that was caused in part by the decrease in traffic, and in part by a shallow inversion created by descent of stratospheric air.
Pierluigi Renan Guaita, Riccardo Marzuoli, Leiming Zhang, Steven Turnock, Gerbrand Koren, Oliver Wild, Paola Crippa, and Giacomo Alessandro Gerosa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2573, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2573, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the global impact of tropospheric ozone on wheat crops in the 21st century under various climate scenarios. The research highlights that ozone damage to wheat varies by region and depends on both ozone levels and climate. Vulnerable regions include East Asia, Northern Europe, and the Southern and Eastern edges of the Tibetan Plateau. Our results emphasize the need of policies to reduce ozone levels and mitigate climate change to protect global food security.
Fangxuan Ren, Jintai Lin, Chenghao Xu, Jamiu A. Adeniran, Jingxu Wang, Randall V. Martin, Aaron van Donkelaar, Melanie S. Hammer, Larry W. Horowitz, Steven T. Turnock, Naga Oshima, Jie Zhang, Susanne Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Gary Strand, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, and Toshihiko Takemura
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4821–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the performance of 14 CMIP6 ESMs in simulating total PM2.5 and its 5 components over China during 2000–2014. PM2.5 and its components are underestimated in almost all models, except that black carbon (BC) and sulfate are overestimated in two models, respectively. The underestimation is the largest for organic carbon (OC) and the smallest for BC. Models reproduce the observed spatial pattern for OC, sulfate, nitrate and ammonium well, yet the agreement is poorer for BC.
Chandrakala Bharali, Mary Barth, Rajesh Kumar, Sachin D. Ghude, Vinayak Sinha, and Baerbel Sinha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6635–6662, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the role of atmospheric aerosols in winter fog over the Indo-Gangetic Plains of India using WRF-Chem. The increase in RH with aerosol–radiation feedback (ARF) is found to be important for fog formation as it promotes the growth of aerosols in the polluted environment. Aqueous-phase chemistry in the fog increases PM2.5 concentration, further affecting ARF. ARF and aqueous-phase chemistry affect the fog intensity and the timing of fog formation by ~1–2 h.
Manuel López-Puertas, Federico Fabiano, Victor Fomichev, Bernd Funke, and Daniel R. Marsh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4401–4432, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The radiative infrared cooling of CO2 in the middle atmosphere is crucial for computing its thermal structure. It requires one however to include non-local thermodynamic equilibrium processes which are computationally very expensive, which cannot be afforded by climate models. In this work, we present an updated, efficient, accurate and very fast (~50 µs) parameterization of that cooling able to cope with CO2 abundances from half the pre-industrial values to 10 times the current abundance.
Yafang Guo, Chayan Roychoudhury, Mohammad Amin Mirrezaei, Rajesh Kumar, Armin Sorooshian, and Avelino F. Arellano
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4331–4353, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research focuses on surface ozone (O3) pollution in Arizona, a historically air-quality-challenged arid and semi-arid region in the US. The unique characteristics of this kind of region, e.g., intense heat, minimal moisture, and persistent desert shrubs, play a vital role in comprehending O3 exceedances. Using the WRF-Chem model, we analyzed O3 levels in the pre-monsoon month, revealing the model's skill in capturing diurnal and MDA8 O3 levels.
Declan L. Finney, Alan M. Blyth, Martin Gallagher, Huihui Wu, Graeme J. Nott, Michael I. Biggerstaff, Richard G. Sonnenfeld, Martin Daily, Dan Walker, David Dufton, Keith Bower, Steven Böing, Thomas Choularton, Jonathan Crosier, James Groves, Paul R. Field, Hugh Coe, Benjamin J. Murray, Gary Lloyd, Nicholas A. Marsden, Michael Flynn, Kezhen Hu, Navaneeth M. Thamban, Paul I. Williams, Paul J. Connolly, James B. McQuaid, Joseph Robinson, Zhiqiang Cui, Ralph R. Burton, Gordon Carrie, Robert Moore, Steven J. Abel, Dave Tiddeman, and Graydon Aulich
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2141–2163, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The DCMEX (Deep Convective Microphysics Experiment) project undertook an aircraft- and ground-based measurement campaign of New Mexico deep convective clouds during July–August 2022. The campaign coordinated a broad range of instrumentation measuring aerosol, cloud physics, radar signals, thermodynamics, dynamics, electric fields, and weather. The project's objectives included the utilisation of these data with satellite observations to study the anvil cloud radiative effect.
Gaurav Govardhan, Sachin D. Ghude, Rajesh Kumar, Sumit Sharma, Preeti Gunwani, Chinmay Jena, Prafull Yadav, Shubhangi Ingle, Sreyashi Debnath, Pooja Pawar, Prodip Acharja, Rajmal Jat, Gayatry Kalita, Rupal Ambulkar, Santosh Kulkarni, Akshara Kaginalkar, Vijay K. Soni, Ravi S. Nanjundiah, and Madhavan Rajeevan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2617–2640, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2617-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A newly developed air quality forecasting framework, Decision Support System (DSS), for air quality management in Delhi, India, provides source attribution with numerous emission reduction scenarios besides forecasts. DSS shows that during post-monsoon and winter seasons, Delhi and its neighboring districts contribute to 30 %–40 % each to pollution in Delhi. On average, a 40 % reduction in the emissions in Delhi and the surrounding districts would result in a 24 % reduction in Delhi's pollution.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Bernd Funke, Thierry Dudok de Wit, Ilaria Ermolli, Margit Haberreiter, Doug Kinnison, Daniel Marsh, Hilde Nesse, Annika Seppälä, Miriam Sinnhuber, and Ilya Usoskin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1217–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We outline a road map for the preparation of a solar forcing dataset for the upcoming Phase 7 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7), considering the latest scientific advances made in the reconstruction of solar forcing and in the understanding of climate response while also addressing the issues that were raised during CMIP6.
Victoria A. Flood, Kimberly Strong, Cynthia H. Whaley, Kaley A. Walker, Thomas Blumenstock, James W. Hannigan, Johan Mellqvist, Justus Notholt, Mathias Palm, Amelie N. Röhling, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Makoto Deushi, Srdjan Dobricic, Xinyi Dong, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Wanmin Gong, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, David A. Plummer, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Manu A. Thomas, Svetlana Tsyro, and Steven Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1079–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
It is important to understand the composition of the Arctic atmosphere and how it is changing. Atmospheric models provide simulations that can inform policy. This study examines simulations of CH4, CO, and O3 by 11 models. Model performance is assessed by comparing results matched in space and time to measurements from five high-latitude ground-based infrared spectrometers. This work finds that models generally underpredict the concentrations of these gases in the Arctic troposphere.
Ailish M. Graham, Richard J. Pope, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip S. Dhomse, Matilda Pimlott, Wuhu Feng, Vikas Singh, Ying Chen, Oliver Wild, Ranjeet Sokhi, and Gufran Beig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 789–806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper uses novel satellite datasets and high-resolution emissions datasets alongside a back-trajectory model to investigate the balance of local and external sources influencing NOx air pollution changes in Delhi. We find in the post-monsoon season that NOx from local and non-local transport emissions contributes most to poor air quality in Delhi. Therefore, air quality mitigation strategies in Delhi and surrounding regions are used to control this issue.
Leon Kuhn, Steffen Beirle, Vinod Kumar, Sergey Osipov, Andrea Pozzer, Tim Bösch, Rajesh Kumar, and Thomas Wagner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 185–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-185-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
NO₂ is an important air pollutant. It was observed that the WRF-Chem model shows significant deviations in NO₂ abundance when compared to measurements. We use a 1-month simulation over central Europe to show that these deviations can be mostly resolved by reparameterization of the vertical mixing routine. In order to validate our results, they are compared to in situ, satellite, and MAX-DOAS measurements.
Alberto Sanchez-Marroquin, Sarah L. Barr, Ian T. Burke, James B. McQuaid, and Benjamin J. Murray
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13819–13834, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13819-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13819-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The sources and concentrations of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in the Arctic are still poorly understood. Here we report aircraft-based INP concentrations and aerosol composition in the western North American Arctic. The concentrations of INPs and all aerosol particles were low. The aerosol samples contained mostly sea salt and dust particles. Dust particles were more relevant for the INP concentrations than sea salt. However, dust alone cannot account for all of the measured INPs.
Zhenze Liu, Oliver Wild, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13755–13768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of net-zero policies on surface ozone pollution in China. A chemistry–climate model is used to simulate ozone changes driven by local and external emissions, methane, and warmer climates. A deep learning model is applied to generate more robust ozone projection, and we find that the benefits of net-zero policies may be overestimated with the chemistry–climate model. Nevertheless, it is clear that the policies can still substantially reduce ozone pollution in future.
Wenfu Tang, Louisa K. Emmons, Helen M. Worden, Rajesh Kumar, Cenlin He, Benjamin Gaubert, Zhonghua Zheng, Simone Tilmes, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Sara-Eva Martinez-Alonso, Claire Granier, Antonin Soulie, Kathryn McKain, Bruce C. Daube, Jeff Peischl, Chelsea Thompson, and Pieternel Levelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6001–6028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The new MUSICAv0 model enables the study of atmospheric chemistry across all relevant scales. We develop a MUSICAv0 grid for Africa. We evaluate MUSICAv0 with observations and compare it with a previously used model – WRF-Chem. Overall, the performance of MUSICAv0 is comparable to WRF-Chem. Based on model–satellite discrepancies, we find that future field campaigns in an eastern African region (30°E–45°E, 5°S–5°N) could substantially improve the predictive skill of air quality models.
John M. C. Plane, Jörg Gumbel, Konstantinos S. Kalogerakis, Daniel R. Marsh, and Christian von Savigny
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13255–13282, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13255-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The mesosphere or lower thermosphere region of the atmosphere borders the edge of space. It is subject to extreme ultraviolet photons and charged particles from the Sun and atmospheric gravity waves from below, which tend to break in this region. The pressure is very low, which facilitates chemistry involving species in excited states, and this is also the region where cosmic dust ablates and injects various metals. The result is a unique and exotic chemistry.
Richard J. Pope, Brian J. Kerridge, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Richard Siddans, Barry G. Latter, Lucy J. Ventress, Matilda A. Pimlott, Wuhu Feng, Edward Comyn-Platt, Garry D. Hayman, Stephen R. Arnold, and Ailish M. Graham
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13235–13253, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the summer of 2018, Europe experienced several persistent large-scale ozone (O3) pollution episodes. Satellite tropospheric O3 and surface O3 data recorded substantial enhancements in 2018 relative to other years. Targeted model simulations showed that meteorological processes and emissions controlled the elevated surface O3, while mid-tropospheric O3 enhancements were dominated by stratospheric O3 intrusion and advection of North Atlantic O3-rich air masses into Europe.
Manu Goudar, Juliëtte C. S. Anema, Rajesh Kumar, Tobias Borsdorff, and Jochen Landgraf
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4835–4852, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4835-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A framework was developed to automatically detect plumes and compute emission estimates with cross-sectional flux method (CFM) for biomass burning events in TROPOMI CO datasets using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire data. The emissions were more reliable when changing plume height in downwind direction was used instead of constant injection height. The CFM had uncertainty even when the meteorological conditions were accurate; thus there is a need for better inversion models.
Leighton A. Regayre, Lucia Deaconu, Daniel P. Grosvenor, David M. H. Sexton, Christopher Symonds, Tom Langton, Duncan Watson-Paris, Jane P. Mulcahy, Kirsty J. Pringle, Mark Richardson, Jill S. Johnson, John W. Rostron, Hamish Gordon, Grenville Lister, Philip Stier, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8749–8768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol forcing of Earth’s energy balance has persisted as a major cause of uncertainty in climate simulations over generations of climate model development. We show that structural deficiencies in a climate model are exposed by comprehensively exploring parametric uncertainty and that these deficiencies limit how much the model uncertainty can be reduced through observational constraint. This provides a future pathway towards building models with greater physical realism and lower uncertainty.
Matthew S. Johnson, Amir H. Souri, Sajeev Philip, Rajesh Kumar, Aaron Naeger, Jeffrey Geddes, Laura Judd, Scott Janz, Heesung Chong, and John Sullivan
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2431–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2431-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2431-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Satellites provide vital information for studying the processes controlling ozone formation. Based on the abundance of particular gases in the atmosphere, ozone formation is sensitive to specific human-induced and natural emission sources. However, errors and biases in satellite retrievals hinder this data source’s application for studying ozone formation sensitivity. We conducted a thorough statistical evaluation of two commonly applied satellites for investigating ozone formation sensitivity.
Zixuan Jia, Carlos Ordóñez, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Steven T. Turnock, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2829–2842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2829-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2829-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the influence of the winter large-scale circulation on daily concentrations of PM2.5 and their sensitivity to emissions. The new proposed circulation index can effectively distinguish different levels of air pollution and explain changes in PM2.5 sensitivity to emissions from local and surrounding regions. We then project future changes in PM2.5 concentrations using this index and find an increase in PM2.5 concentrations over the region due to climate change.
Prajjwal Rawat, Manish Naja, Evan Fishbein, Pradeep K. Thapliyal, Rajesh Kumar, Piyush Bhardwaj, Aditya Jaiswal, Sugriva N. Tiwari, Sethuraman Venkataramani, and Shyam Lal
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 889–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-889-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-889-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite-based ozone observations have gained importance due to their global coverage. However, satellite-retrieved products are indirect and need to be validated, particularly over mountains. Ozonesondes launched from a Himalayan site are used to assess the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) ozone retrieval. AIRS is shown to overestimate ozone in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, while the differences from ozonesondes are more minor in the middle troposphere and stratosphere.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Kathy S. Law, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Henrik Skov, Stephen R. Arnold, Joakim Langner, Jakob Boyd Pernov, Garance Bergeron, Ilann Bourgeois, Jesper H. Christensen, Rong-You Chien, Makoto Deushi, Xinyi Dong, Peter Effertz, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Greg Huey, Ulas Im, Rigel Kivi, Louis Marelle, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Jeff Peischl, David A. Plummer, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Tom Ryerson, Ragnhild Skeie, Sverre Solberg, Manu A. Thomas, Chelsea Thompson, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven T. Turnock, Knut von Salzen, and David W. Tarasick
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 637–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-637-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study summarizes recent research on ozone in the Arctic, a sensitive and rapidly warming region. We find that the seasonal cycles of near-surface atmospheric ozone are variable depending on whether they are near the coast, inland, or at high altitude. Several global model simulations were evaluated, and we found that because models lack some of the ozone chemistry that is important for the coastal Arctic locations, they do not accurately simulate ozone there.
Pooja V. Pawar, Sachin D. Ghude, Gaurav Govardhan, Prodip Acharja, Rachana Kulkarni, Rajesh Kumar, Baerbel Sinha, Vinayak Sinha, Chinmay Jena, Preeti Gunwani, Tapan Kumar Adhya, Eiko Nemitz, and Mark A. Sutton
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 41–59, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-41-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-41-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, for the first time in South Asia we compare simulated ammonia, ammonium, and total ammonia using the WRF-Chem model and MARGA measurements during winter in the Indo-Gangetic Plain region. Since observations show HCl promotes the fraction of high chlorides in Delhi, we added HCl / Cl emissions to the model. We conducted three sensitivity experiments with changes in HCl emissions, and improvements are reported in accurately simulating ammonia, ammonium, and total ammonia.
Zhenze Liu, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12543–12557, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Weaknesses in process representation in chemistry–climate models lead to biases in simulating surface ozone and to uncertainty in projections of future ozone change. We develop a deep learning model to demonstrate the feasibility of ozone bias correction and show its capability in providing improved assessments of the impacts of climate and emission changes on future air quality, along with valuable information to guide future model development.
Outi Meinander, Pavla Dagsson-Waldhauserova, Pavel Amosov, Elena Aseyeva, Cliff Atkins, Alexander Baklanov, Clarissa Baldo, Sarah L. Barr, Barbara Barzycka, Liane G. Benning, Bojan Cvetkovic, Polina Enchilik, Denis Frolov, Santiago Gassó, Konrad Kandler, Nikolay Kasimov, Jan Kavan, James King, Tatyana Koroleva, Viktoria Krupskaya, Markku Kulmala, Monika Kusiak, Hanna K. Lappalainen, Michał Laska, Jerome Lasne, Marek Lewandowski, Bartłomiej Luks, James B. McQuaid, Beatrice Moroni, Benjamin Murray, Ottmar Möhler, Adam Nawrot, Slobodan Nickovic, Norman T. O’Neill, Goran Pejanovic, Olga Popovicheva, Keyvan Ranjbar, Manolis Romanias, Olga Samonova, Alberto Sanchez-Marroquin, Kerstin Schepanski, Ivan Semenkov, Anna Sharapova, Elena Shevnina, Zongbo Shi, Mikhail Sofiev, Frédéric Thevenet, Throstur Thorsteinsson, Mikhail Timofeev, Nsikanabasi Silas Umo, Andreas Uppstu, Darya Urupina, György Varga, Tomasz Werner, Olafur Arnalds, and Ana Vukovic Vimic
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11889–11930, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11889-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11889-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
High-latitude dust (HLD) is a short-lived climate forcer, air pollutant, and nutrient source. Our results suggest a northern HLD belt at 50–58° N in Eurasia and 50–55° N in Canada and at >60° N in Eurasia and >58° N in Canada. Our addition to the previously identified global dust belt (GDB) provides crucially needed information on the extent of active HLD sources with both direct and indirect impacts on climate and environment in remote regions, which are often poorly understood and predicted.
Bingkun Yu, Xianghui Xue, Christopher J. Scott, Mingjiao Jia, Wuhu Feng, John M. C. Plane, Daniel R. Marsh, Jonas Hedin, Jörg Gumbel, and Xiankang Dou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11485–11504, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11485-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11485-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a study on the climatology of the metal sodium layer in the upper atmosphere from the ground-based measurements obtained from a lidar network, the Odin satellite measurements, and a global model of meteoric sodium in the atmosphere. Comprehensively, comparisons show good agreement and some discrepancies between ground-based observations, satellite measurements, and global model simulations.
Chaman Gul, Shichang Kang, Siva Praveen Puppala, Xiaokang Wu, Cenlin He, Yangyang Xu, Inka Koch, Sher Muhammad, Rajesh Kumar, and Getachew Dubache
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8725–8737, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8725-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to understand concentrations, spatial variability, and potential source regions of light-absorbing impurities (black carbon aerosols, dust particles, and organic carbon) in the surface snow of central and western Himalayan glaciers and their impact on snow albedo and radiative forcing.
Shipra Jain, Ruth M. Doherty, David Sexton, Steven Turnock, Chaofan Li, Zixuan Jia, Zongbo Shi, and Lin Pei
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7443–7460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7443-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7443-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a range of future projections of winter haze and clear conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) using multiple simulations from a climate model for the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). The frequency of haze conducive weather is likely to increase whereas the frequency of clear weather is likely to decrease in future. The total number of hazy days for a given winter can be as much as ˜3.5 times higher than the number of clear days over the NCP.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Rashed Mahmood, Knut von Salzen, Barbara Winter, Sabine Eckhardt, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Silvia Becagli, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Sujay Manish Damani, Xinyi Dong, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Fabio Giardi, Wanmin Gong, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Lin Huang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Srinath Krishnan, Zbigniew Klimont, Thomas Kühn, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Andreas Massling, Dirk Olivié, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Yiran Peng, David A. Plummer, Olga Popovicheva, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Maria Sand, Laura N. Saunders, Julia Schmale, Sangeeta Sharma, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Henrik Skov, Fumikazu Taketani, Manu A. Thomas, Rita Traversi, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven Turnock, Vito Vitale, Kaley A. Walker, Minqi Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Tahya Weiss-Gibbons
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5775–5828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Air pollutants, like ozone and soot, play a role in both global warming and air quality. Atmospheric models are often used to provide information to policy makers about current and future conditions under different emissions scenarios. In order to have confidence in those simulations, in this study we compare simulated air pollution from 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric models to measured air pollution in order to assess how well the models perform.
Richard J. Pope, Rebecca Kelly, Eloise A. Marais, Ailish M. Graham, Chris Wilson, Jeremy J. Harrison, Savio J. A. Moniz, Mohamed Ghalaieny, Steve R. Arnold, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4323–4338, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4323-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are potent air pollutants which directly impact on human health. In this study, we use satellite nitrogen dioxide (NO2) data to evaluate the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the UK official NOx emissions inventory, with reasonable agreement. We also derived satellite-based NOx emissions for several UK cities. In the case of London and Birmingham, the NAEI NOx emissions are potentially too low by >50%.
Henry Bowman, Steven Turnock, Susanne E. Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Makoto Deushi, Naga Oshima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Larry Horowitz, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Dagmar Kubistin, and David D. Parrish
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3507–3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3507-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A full understanding of ozone in the troposphere requires investigation of its temporal variability over all timescales. Model simulations show that the northern midlatitude ozone seasonal cycle shifted with industrial development (1850–2014), with an increasing magnitude and a later summer peak. That shift reached a maximum in the mid-1980s, followed by a reversal toward the preindustrial cycle. The few available observations, beginning in the 1970s, are consistent with the model simulations.
Zhenze Liu, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1209–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1209-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1209-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tropospheric ozone is important to future air quality and climate, and changing emissions and climate influence ozone. We investigate the evolution of ozone and ozone sensitivity from the present day (2004–2014) to the future (2045–2055) and explore the main drivers of ozone changes from global and regional perspectives. This helps guide suitable emission control strategies to mitigate ozone pollution.
Jie Zhang, Kalli Furtado, Steven T. Turnock, Jane P. Mulcahy, Laura J. Wilcox, Ben B. Booth, David Sexton, Tongwen Wu, Fang Zhang, and Qianxia Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18609–18627, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18609-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18609-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6 ESMs systematically underestimate TAS anomalies in the NH midlatitudes, especially from 1960 to 1990. The anomalous cooling is concurrent in time and space with anthropogenic SO2 emissions. The spurious drop in TAS is attributed to the overestimated aerosol concentrations. The aerosol forcing sensitivity cannot well explain the inter-model spread of PHC biases. And the cloud-amount term accounts for most of the inter-model spread in aerosol forcing sensitivity.
Catherine Hardacre, Jane P. Mulcahy, Richard J. Pope, Colin G. Jones, Steven T. Rumbold, Can Li, Colin Johnson, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18465–18497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18465-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18465-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate UKESM1's ability to represent the sulfur (S) cycle in the recent historical period. The S cycle is a key driver of historical radiative forcing. Earth system models such as UKESM1 should represent the S cycle well so that we can have confidence in their projections of future climate. We compare UKESM1 to observations of sulfur compounds, finding that the model generally performs well. We also identify areas for UKESM1’s development, focussing on how SO2 is removed from the air.
Ioannis A. Daglis, Loren C. Chang, Sergio Dasso, Nat Gopalswamy, Olga V. Khabarova, Emilia Kilpua, Ramon Lopez, Daniel Marsh, Katja Matthes, Dibyendu Nandy, Annika Seppälä, Kazuo Shiokawa, Rémi Thiéblemont, and Qiugang Zong
Ann. Geophys., 39, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-1013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-1013-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a detailed account of the science programme PRESTO (PREdictability of the variable Solar–Terrestrial cOupling), covering the period 2020 to 2024. PRESTO was defined by a dedicated committee established by SCOSTEP (Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics). We review the current state of the art and discuss future studies required for the most effective development of solar–terrestrial physics.
Anthony C. Jones, Adrian Hill, Samuel Remy, N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, Catherine Hardacre, Alan J. Hewitt, Ben Johnson, Jane P. Mulcahy, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15901–15927, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15901-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15901-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ammonium nitrate is hard to model because it forms and evaporates rapidly. One approach is to relate its equilibrium concentration to temperature, humidity, and the amount of nitric acid and ammonia gases. Using this approach, we limit the rate at which equilibrium is reached using various condensation rates in a climate model. We show that ammonium nitrate concentrations are highly sensitive to the condensation rate. Our results will help improve the representation of nitrate in climate models.
Jianfei Wu, Wuhu Feng, Han-Li Liu, Xianghui Xue, Daniel Robert Marsh, and John Maurice Campbell Plane
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15619–15630, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15619-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15619-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Metal layers occur in the MLT region (80–120 km) from the ablation of cosmic dust. The latest lidar observations show these metals can reach a height approaching 200 km, which is challenging to explain. We have developed the first global simulation incorporating the full life cycle of metal atoms and ions. The model results compare well with lidar and satellite observations of the seasonal and diurnal variation of the metals and demonstrate the importance of ion mass and ion-neutral coupling.
Liang Guo, Laura J. Wilcox, Massimo Bollasina, Steven T. Turnock, Marianne T. Lund, and Lixia Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15299–15308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Severe haze remains serious over Beijing despite emissions decreasing since 2008. Future haze changes in four scenarios are studied. The pattern conducive to haze weather increases with the atmospheric warming caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. However, the actual haze intensity, measured by either PM2.5 or optical depth, decreases with aerosol emissions. We show that only using the weather pattern index to predict the future change of Beijing haze is insufficient.
Xinxin Ye, Pargoal Arab, Ravan Ahmadov, Eric James, Georg A. Grell, Bradley Pierce, Aditya Kumar, Paul Makar, Jack Chen, Didier Davignon, Greg R. Carmichael, Gonzalo Ferrada, Jeff McQueen, Jianping Huang, Rajesh Kumar, Louisa Emmons, Farren L. Herron-Thorpe, Mark Parrington, Richard Engelen, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Arlindo da Silva, Amber Soja, Emily Gargulinski, Elizabeth Wiggins, Johnathan W. Hair, Marta Fenn, Taylor Shingler, Shobha Kondragunta, Alexei Lyapustin, Yujie Wang, Brent Holben, David M. Giles, and Pablo E. Saide
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14427–14469, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14427-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire smoke has crucial impacts on air quality, while uncertainties in the numerical forecasts remain significant. We present an evaluation of 12 real-time forecasting systems. Comparison of predicted smoke emissions suggests a large spread in magnitudes, with temporal patterns deviating from satellite detections. The performance for AOD and surface PM2.5 and their discrepancies highlighted the role of accurately represented spatiotemporal emission profiles in improving smoke forecasts.
Ville Maliniemi, Hilde Nesse Tyssøy, Christine Smith-Johnsen, Pavle Arsenovic, and Daniel R. Marsh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11041–11052, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate ozone variability over the 21st century with different greenhouse gas scenarios. Our results highlight a novel mechanism of additional reactive nitrogen species descending to the Antarctic stratosphere from the thermosphere/upper mesosphere due to the accelerated residual circulation under climate change. This excess descending NOx can potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the Antarctic upper stratosphere.
David D. Parrish, Richard G. Derwent, Steven T. Turnock, Fiona M. O'Connor, Johannes Staehelin, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Naga Oshima, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9669–9679, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9669-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9669-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The few ozone measurements made before the 1980s indicate that industrial development increased ozone concentrations by a factor of ~ 2 at northern midlatitudes, which are now larger than at southern midlatitudes. This difference was much smaller, and likely reversed, in the pre-industrial atmosphere. Earth system models find similar increases, but not higher pre-industrial ozone in the south. This disagreement may indicate that modeled natural ozone sources and/or deposition loss are inadequate.
Michael Kiefer, Thomas von Clarmann, Bernd Funke, Maya García-Comas, Norbert Glatthor, Udo Grabowski, Sylvia Kellmann, Anne Kleinert, Alexandra Laeng, Andrea Linden, Manuel López-Puertas, Daniel R. Marsh, and Gabriele P. Stiller
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 4111–4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
An improved dataset of vertical temperature profiles of the Earth's atmosphere in the altitude range 5–70 km is presented. These profiles are derived from measurements of the MIPAS instrument onboard ESA's Envisat satellite. The overall improvements are based on upgrades in the input data and several improvements in the data processing approach. Both of these are discussed, and an extensive error discussion is included. Enhancements of the new dataset are demonstrated by means of examples.
Cited articles
Abdul Shakor, A. S. A., Pahrol, M. A., and Mazeli, M. I.: Effects of Population Weighting on PM10 Concentration Estimation, Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2020, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/1561823, 2020. a
Adedeji, A. R., Dagar, L., Petra, M. I., De Silva, L. C., and Tao, Z.: Sensitivity of WRF-Chem model resolution in simulating particulate matter in South-East Asia, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-692, 2020. a
Archibald, A. T., Turnock, S. T., Griffiths, P. T., Cox, T., Derwent, R. G., Knote, C., and Shin, M.: On the changes in surface ozone over the twenty-first century: sensitivity to changes in surface temperature and chemical mechanisms, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 378, 20190329, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0329, 2020. a
Balzarini, A., Pirovano, G., Honzak, L., Zabkar, R., Curci, G., Forkel, R., Hirtl, M., San Jose, R., Tuccella, P., and Grell, G. A: WRF-Chem model sensitivity to chemical mechanisms choice in reconstructing aerosol optical properties, Atmos. Environ., 115, 604–619, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.12.033, 2015 a
Ban, J. L., K; Wang, Q; Li, T: Climate change will amplify the inequitable exposure to compound heatwave and ozone pollution, One Earth, 5, 2022.
Butt, E. W., Turnock, S. T., Rigby, R., Reddington, C. L., Yoshioka, M., Johnson, J. S., Regayre, L. A., Pringle, K. J., Mann, G. W., and Spracklen, D. V.: Global and regional trends in particulate air pollution and attributable health burden over the past 50 years, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 104017, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa87be, 2017. a
Chemel, C., Fisher, B. E. A., Kong, X., Francis, X. V., Sokhi, R. S., Good, N., Collins, W. J., and Folberth, G. A.: Application of chemical transport model CMAQ to policy decisions regarding PM2.5 in the UK, Atmos. Environ., 82, 410–417, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.10.001, 2014. a
Cheng, J., Tong, D., Liu, Y., Yu, S., Yan, L., Zheng, B., Geng, G., He, K., and Zhang, Q.: Comparison of Current and Future PM2.5 Air Quality in China Under CMIP6 and DPEC Emission Scenarios, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL093197, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl093197, 2021. a, b, c, d
Chin, M., Savoie, D. L., Huebert, B. J., Bandy, A. R., Thornton, D. C., Bates, T. S., Quinn, P. K., Saltzman, E. S., and De Bruyn, W. J.: Atmospheric sulfur cycle simulated in the global model GOCART: Comparison with field observations and regional budgets, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 105, 24689–24712, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000jd900385, 2000. a
Chowdhury, S., Dey, S., and Smith, K. R.: Ambient PM2.5 exposure and expected premature mortality to 2100 in India under climate change scenarios, Nat. Commun., 9, 318, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02755-y, 2018. a, b
Clappier, A., Thunis, P., Beekman, M., Putaud, J. P., and de Meij, A.: Impact of SOx, NOx and NH3 emission reductions on PM2.5 concentrations across Europe: Hints for future measure development, Environ. Int., 156, 106699, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2021.106699, 2021. a, b, c
Clayton, C.: Cclayton_WRFChem_SSP_pres, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10781398, 2024.
Coelho, S., Rafael, S., Fernades, A. P., Lopes, M., and Carvalho, D.: How the New Climate Scenarios Will Affect Air Quality Trends: An Exploratory Research, Urban Climate, 49, 101479, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101479, 2023. a
Colette, A., Bessagnet, B., Vautard, R., Szopa, S., Rao, S., Schucht, S., Klimont, Z., Menut, L., Clain, G., Meleux, F., Curci, G., and Rouïl, L.: European atmosphere in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7451–7471, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7451-2013, 2013. a
Conibear, L., Reddington, C. L., Silver, B. J., Arnold, S. R., Turnock, S. T., Klimont, Z., and Spracklen, D. V.: The contribution of emission sources to the future air pollution disease burden in China, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 064027, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6f6f, 2022. a
Crippa, M., Guizzardi, D., Butler, T., Keating, T., Wu, R., Kaminski, J., Kuenen, J., Kurokawa, J., Chatani, S., Morikawa, T., Pouliot, G., Racine, J., Moran, M. D., Klimont, Z., Manseau, P. M., Mashayekhi, R., Henderson, B. H., Smith, S. J., Suchyta, H., Muntean, M., Solazzo, E., Banja, M., Schaaf, E., Pagani, F., Woo, J.-H., Kim, J., Monforti-Ferrario, F., Pisoni, E., Zhang, J., Niemi, D., Sassi, M., Ansari, T., and Foley, K.: The HTAP_v3 emission mosaic: merging regional and global monthly emissions (2000–2018) to support air quality modelling and policies, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2667–2694, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2667-2023, 2023. a
Danabasoglu, G.: NCAR CESM2-WACCM model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10026, 2019. a, b
Doherty, R. M., Heal, M. R., and O’Connor, F. M.: Climate change impacts on human health over Europe through its effect on air quality, Environ. Health, 16, 118, https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-017-0325-2, 2017. a
Emmons, L. K., Walters, S., Hess, P. G., Lamarque, J.-F., Pfister, G. G., Fillmore, D., Granier, C., Guenther, A., Kinnison, D., Laepple, T., Orlando, J., Tie, X., Tyndall, G., Wiedinmyer, C., Baughcum, S. L., and Kloster, S.: Description and evaluation of the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 43–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-43-2010, 2010. a
European Environment Agency: Air Quality in Europe https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/air-quality-in-europe-2022 (last access: 15 February 2024), 2022. a
Fenech, S., Doherty, R. M., Heaviside, C., Vardoulakis, S., Macintyre, H. L., and O'Connor, F. M.: The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessments, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5765–5784, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5765-2018, 2018. a
Fenech, S., Doherty, R. M., O’Connor, F. M., Heaviside, C., Macintyre, H. L., Vardoulakis, S., Agnew, P., and Neal, L. S.: Future air pollution related health burdens associated with RCP emission changes in the UK, Sci. Total Environ., 773, 145635, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145635, 2021. a, b, c, d, e
Feng, L., Smith, S. J., Braun, C., Crippa, M., Gidden, M. J., Hoesly, R., Klimont, Z., van Marle, M., van den Berg, M., and van der Werf, G. R.: The generation of gridded emissions data for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 461–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-461-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Finch, D. and Palmer, P. P. I.: Increasing ambient surface ozone levels over the UK accompanied by fewer extreme events, Atmos. Environ., 237, 117627, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117627, 2020. a
Georgiou, G. K., Christoudias, T., Proestos, Y., Kushta, J., Hadjinicolaou, P., and Lelieveld, J.: Air quality modelling in the summer over the eastern Mediterranean using WRF-Chem: chemistry and aerosol mechanism intercomparison, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1555–1571, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1555-2018, 2018. a
Ginoux, P., Chin, M., Tegen, I., Prospero, J. M., Holben, B., Dubovik, O., and Lin, S. J.: Sources and distributions of dust aerosols simulated with the GOCART model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106, 20255–20273, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000jd000053, 2001. a
Giovannini, L., Ferrero, E., Karl, T., Rotach, M. W., Staquet, C., Trini Castelli, S., and Zardi, D.: Atmospheric Pollutant Dispersion over Complex Terrain: Challenges and Needs for Improving Air Quality Measurements and Modeling, Atmosphere, 11, 646, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11060646, 2020. a
Goto, D., Ueda, K., Ng, C. F. S., Takami, A., Ariga, T., Matsuhashi, K., and Nakajima, T.: Estimation of excess mortality due to long-term exposure to PM2.5 in Japan using a high-resolution model for present and future scenarios, Atmos. Environ., 140, 320–332, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.06.015, 2016. a
Graham, A. M., Pringle, K. J., Arnold, S. R., Pope, R. J., Vieno, M., Butt, E. W., Conibear, L., Stirling, E. L., and McQuaid, J. B.: Impact of weather types on UK ambient particulate matter concentrations, Atmos. Environ. X, 5, 100061, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeaoa.2019.100061, 2020. a
Grell, G. A., Peckham, S. E., Schmitz, R., McKeen, S. A., Frost, G., Skamarock, W. C., and Eder, B.: Fully coupled “online” chemistry within the WRF model, Atmos. Environ., 39, 6957–6975, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2005.04.027, 2005. a
Guenther, A., Karl, T., Harley, P., Wiedinmyer, C., Palmer, P. I., and Geron, C.: Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3181–3210, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-3181-2006, 2006. a
Guerreiro, C. B. B., Foltescu, V., and De Leeuw, F.: Air quality status and trends in Europe, Atmos. Environ., 98, 376–384, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.09.017, 2014. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz‐Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J. N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a, b
Hoesly, R. M., Smith, S. J., Feng, L., Klimont, Z., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Pitkanen, T., Seibert, J. J., Vu, L., Andres, R. J., Bolt, R. M., Bond, T. C., Dawidowski, L., Kholod, N., Kurokawa, J.-I., Li, M., Liu, L., Lu, Z., Moura, M. C. P., O'Rourke, P. R., and Zhang, Q.: Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 369–408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-369-2018, 2018. a, b, c, d
Huang, G., Brook, R., Crippa, M., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Schieberle, C., Dore, C., Guizzardi, D., Muntean, M., Schaaf, E., and Friedrich, R.: Speciation of anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds: a global gridded data set for 1970–2012, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7683–7701, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7683-2017, 2017. a
Im, U., Biancone, R., Solazzo, E., Kioutsioukis, I., Badia, A., Balzarini, A., Baro, R., Bellasio, R., Brunner, D., Chemel, C., Curci, G., Denier van der Gon, H., Flemming, J., Forkel, R., Giordano, L., Jimenez-Guerrero, P., Hirtl, M., Hodzic, A., Honzak, L., Jorba, O., Knote, C., Makar, P.A., Manders-Groot, A., Neal, L., Perez, J.L., Pirovano, G., Pouliot, G., San Jose, R., Savage, N., Schroder, W., Sokhi, R.S., Syrakov, D., Torian, A., Tuccella, P., Wang, K., Werhahn, J., Wolker, R., Zabkar, R., Zhang, Y., Zhang, J., Hogrefe, C., and Galmarini, S.: Evaluation of operational online-coupled regional air quality models over Europe and North America in the context of AQMEII phase 2. Part II: Particulate Matter, Atmos. Environ., 115, 421–441, 2014.
Janssens-Maenhout, G., Crippa, M., Guizzardi, D., Dentener, F., Muntean, M., Pouliot, G., Keating, T., Zhang, Q., Kurokawa, J., Wankmüller, R., Denier van der Gon, H., Kuenen, J. J. P., Klimont, Z., Frost, G., Darras, S., Koffi, B., and Li, M.: HTAP_v2.2: a mosaic of regional and global emission grid maps for 2008 and 2010 to study hemispheric transport of air pollution, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11411–11432, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11411-2015, 2015. a
Jephcote, C., Hansell, A. L., Adams, K., and Gulliver, J.: Changes in air quality during COVID-19 “lockdown” in the United Kingdom, Environ. Pollutt., 272, 116011, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2020.116011, 2021. a, b
Jones, B. and O'Neill, B. C.: Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 084003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003, 2016. a
Juginović, A., Vuković, M., Aranza, I., and Biloš, V.: Health impacts of air pollution exposure from 1990 to 2019 in 43 European countries, Sci. Rep., 11, 22516, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01802-5, 2021. a
Kumar, R., Barth, M. C., Pfister, G. G., Delle Monache, L., Lamarque, J. F., Archer‐Nicholls, S., Tilmes, S., Ghude, S. D., Wiedinmyer, C., Naja, M., and Walters, S.: How Will Air Quality Change in South Asia by 2050?, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 1840–1864, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017jd027357, 2018. a, b, c, d
Lee, J. D., Drysdale, W. S., Finch, D. P., Wilde, S. E., and Palmer, P. I.: UK surface NO2 levels dropped by 42 % during the COVID-19 lockdown: impact on surface O3, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15743–15759, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15743-2020, 2020. a
Lelieveld, J., Pozzer, A., Pöschl, U., Fnais, M., Haines, A., and Münzel, T.: Loss of life expectancy from air pollution compared to other risk factors: a worldwide perspective, Cardiovasc. Res., 116, 1910–1917, https://doi.org/10.1093/cvr/cvaa025, 2020. a
Liu, Z., Doherty, R. M., Wild, O., O'Connor, F. M., and Turnock, S. T.: Tropospheric ozone changes and ozone sensitivity from the present day to the future under shared socio-economic pathways, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1209–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1209-2022, 2022. a
Lobell, D. B., Di Tommaso, S., and Burney, J. A.: Globally ubiquitous negative effects of nitrogen dioxide on crop growth, Science Advances, 8, eabm9909, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abm9909, 2022. a
Manders, A. M. M., Schaap, M., Querol, X., Albert, M. F. M. A., Vercauteren, J., Kuhlbusch, T. A. J., and Hoogerbrugge, R.: Sea salt concentrations across the European continent, Atmos. Environ., 44, 2434–2442, 2010. a
Miyazaki, K., Bowman, K., Sekiya, T., Takigawa, M., Neu, J. L., Sudo, K., Osterman, G., and Eskes, H.: Global tropospheric ozone responses to reduced NOx emissions linked to the COVID-19 worldwide lockdowns, Science Advances, 7, eabf7460, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf7460, 2021. a, b, c
Monks, P. S., Archibald, A. T., Colette, A., Cooper, O., Coyle, M., Derwent, R., Fowler, D., Granier, C., Law, K. S., Mills, G. E., Stevenson, D. S., Tarasova, O., Thouret, V., von Schneidemesser, E., Sommariva, R., Wild, O., and Williams, M. L.: Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8889–8973, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8889-2015, 2015. a
O’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D. S., Van Ruijven, B. J., Van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., Levy, M., and Solecki, W.: The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century, Global Environ. Chang., 42, 169–180, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004, 2017. a
Peace, A. H., Carslaw, K. S., Lee, L. A., Regayre, L. A., Booth, B. B. B., Johnson, J. S., and Bernie, D.: Effect of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on projected exceedance year of a 1.5 °C global temperature rise, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 0940a0946, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba20c, 2020. a
Pusede, S. E., Duffey, K. C., Shusterman, A. A., Saleh, A., Laughner, J. L., Wooldridge, P. J., Zhang, Q., Parworth, C. L., Kim, H., Capps, S. L., Valin, L. C., Cappa, C. D., Fried, A., Walega, J., Nowak, J. B., Weinheimer, A. J., Hoff, R. M., Berkoff, T. A., Beyersdorf, A. J., Olson, J., Crawford, J. H., and Cohen, R. C.: On the effectiveness of nitrogen oxide reductions as a control over ammonium nitrate aerosol, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2575–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2575-2016, 2016. a
Putaud, J.-P., Pisoni, E., Mangold, A., Hueglin, C., Sciare, J., Pikridas, M., Savvides, C., Ondracek, J., Mbengue, S., Wiedensohler, A., Weinhold, K., Merkel, M., Poulain, L., van Pinxteren, D., Herrmann, H., Massling, A., Nordstroem, C., Alastuey, A., Reche, C., Pérez, N., Castillo, S., Sorribas, M., Adame, J. A., Petaja, T., Lehtipalo, K., Niemi, J., Riffault, V., de Brito, J. F., Colette, A., Favez, O., Petit, J.-E., Gros, V., Gini, M. I., Vratolis, S., Eleftheriadis, K., Diapouli, E., Denier van der Gon, H., Yttri, K. E., and Aas, W.: Impact of 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns on particulate air pollution across Europe, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10145–10161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10145-2023, 2023. a
Raes, F., Liao, H., Chen, W.-T., and Seinfeld, J. H.: Atmospheric chemistry-climate feedbacks, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D12121, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009jd013300, 2010. a
Rao, S., Klimont, Z., Smith, S. J., Van Dingenen, R., Dentener, F., Bouwman, L., Riahi, K., Amann, M., Bodirsky, B. L., Van Vuuren, D. P., Aleluia Reis, L., Calvin, K., Drouet, L., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Gernaat, D., Havlik, P., Harmsen, M., Hasegawa, T., Heyes, C., Hilaire, J., Luderer, G., Masui, T., Stehfest, E., Strefler, J., Van Der Sluis, S., and Tavoni, M.: Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways, Global Environ. Chang., 42, 346–358, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.012, 2017. a, b, c, d
Reddington, C. L., Turnock, S. T., Conibear, L., Forster, P. M., Lowe, J. A., Ford, L. B., Weaver, C., Van Bavel, B., Dong, H., Alizadeh, M. R., and Arnold, S. R.: Inequalities in Air Pollution Exposure and Attributable Mortality in a Low Carbon Future, Earths Future, 11, e2023EF003697, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003697, 2023. a, b, c
Sa, E., Martins, H., Ferreira, J., Marta-Almeida, M., Rocha, A., Carvalho, A., Freitas, S., and Borrego, C.: Climate change and pollutant emissions impacts on air quality in 2050 over Portugal, Atmos. Environ., 131, 209–224, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.01.040, 2016. a
Scott, C. E., Arnold, S. R., Monks, S. A., Asmi, A., Paasonen, P., and Spracklen, D. V.: Substantial large-scale feedbacks between natural aerosols and climate, Nat. Geosci., 11, 44–48, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0020-5, 2018. a
Silva, R. A., West, J. J., Lamarque, J.-F., Shindell, D. T., Collins, W. J., Dalsoren, S., Faluvegi, G., Folberth, G., Horowitz, L. W., Nagashima, T., Naik, V., Rumbold, S. T., Sudo, K., Takemura, T., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Cionni, I., Doherty, R. M., Eyring, V., Josse, B., MacKenzie, I. A., Plummer, D., Righi, M., Stevenson, D. S., Strode, S., Szopa, S., and Zengast, G.: The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9847–9862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, 2016. a
Tainio, M., Juda-Rezler, K., Reizer, M., Warchałowski, A., Trapp, W., and Skotak, K.: Future climate and adverse health effects caused by fine particulate matter air pollution: case study for Poland, Reg. Environ. Change, 13, 705–715, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0366-6, 2013. a
Tarín-Carrasco, P., Morales-Suárez-Varela, M., Im, U., Brandt, J., Palacios-Peña, L., and Jiménez-Guerrero, P.: Isolating the climate change impacts on air-pollution-related-pathologies over central and southern Europe – a modelling approach on cases and costs, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9385–9398, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9385-2019, 2019. a
Turnock, S. T., Allen, R. J., Andrews, M., Bauer, S. E., Deushi, M., Emmons, L., Good, P., Horowitz, L., John, J. G., Michou, M., Nabat, P., Naik, V., Neubauer, D., O'Connor, F. M., Olivié, D., Oshima, N., Schulz, M., Sellar, A., Shim, S., Takemura, T., Tilmes, S., Tsigaridis, K., Wu, T., and Zhang, J.: Historical and future changes in air pollutants from CMIP6 models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m
Turnock, S. T., Reddington, C. L., West, J. J., and O’Connor, F. M.: The Air Pollution Human Health Burden in Different Future Scenarios That Involve the Mitigation of Near‐Term Climate Forcers, Climate and Land‐Use, GeoHealth, 7, e2023GH000812, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gh000812, 2023. a, b
Van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., and Rose, S. K.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic Change, 109, 5–31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011. a
Vandyck, T., Keramidas, K., Tchung-Ming, S., Weitzel, M., and Van Dingenen, R.: Quantifying air quality co-benefits of climate policy across sectors and regions, Climatic Change, 163, 1501–1517, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02685-7, 2020. a, b
Venter, Z. S., Aunan, K., Chowdhury, S., and Lelieveld, J.: Air pollution declines during COVID-19 lockdowns mitigate the global health burden, Environ. Res., 192, 110403, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.110403, 2021. a
Von Schneidemesser, E., Monks, P. S., Allan, J. D., Bruhwiler, L., Forster, P., Fowler, D., Lauer, A., Morgan, W. T., Paasonen, P., Righi, M., Sindelarova, K., and Sutton, M. A.: Chemistry and the Linkages between Air Quality and Climate Change, Chem. Rev., 115, 3856–3897, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.chemrev.5b00089, 2015. a
Von Schneidemesser, E., Driscoll, C., Rieder, H. E., and Schiferl, L. D.: How will air quality effects on human health, crops and ecosystems change in the future?, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 378, 20190330, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0330, 2020. a, b, c
Wiedinmyer, C., Akagi, S. K., Yokelson, R. J., Emmons, L. K., Al-Saadi, J. A., Orlando, J. J., and Soja, A. J.: The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN): a high resolution global model to estimate the emissions from open burning, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 625–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-625-2011, 2011.
World Climate Research Programme (WCRP): WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6), ESGF [data set], https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/, last access: 16 September 2024.
World Health Organisation: WHO Ambient Air Quality Factsheet, https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ambient-(outdoor)-air-quality-and-health, last access: 24 January 2024.
Wu, X., Xu, Y., Kumar, R., and Barth, M.: Separating Emission and Meteorological Drivers of Mid‐21st‐Century Air Quality Changes in India Based on Multiyear Global‐RegionalChemistry‐Climate Simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 13420–13438, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd030988, 2019. a
Zanis, P., Akritidis, D., Turnock, S. T., Naik, V., Szopa, S., Georgoulias, A. K., Bauer, S. E., Deushi, M., Horowitz, L. W., Keeble, J., Le Sager, P., O'Connor, F. M., Oshima, N., Tsigaridis, K., and Van Noije, T.: Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 024014, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a34, 2022. a
Zauli-Sajani, S., Thunis, P., Pisoni, E., Bessagnet, B., Monforti-Ferrario, F., De Meij, A., Pekar, F., and Vignati, E.: Reducing biomass burning is key to decrease PM2.5 exposure in European cities, Sci. Rep., 14, 10210, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-60946-2, 2024. a, b
Zaveri, R. A., Easter, R. C., Fast, J. D., and Peters, L. K.: Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D13204, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007jd008782, 2008. a
Zhang, Y., Smith, S. J., Bowden, J. H., Adelman, Z., and West, J. J.: Co-benefits of global, domestic, and sectoral greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality and human health in 2050, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 114033, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8f76, 2017. a
Short summary
We demonstrate that strong climate mitigation could improve air quality in Europe; however, less ambitious mitigation does not result in these co-benefits. We use a high-resolution atmospheric chemistry model. This allows us to demonstrate how this varies across European countries and analyse the underlying chemistry. This may help policy-facing researchers understand which sectors and regions need to be prioritised to achieve strong air quality co-benefits of climate mitigation.
We demonstrate that strong climate mitigation could improve air quality in Europe; however, less...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint