Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2813-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2813-2023
Research article
 | 
02 Mar 2023
Research article |  | 02 Mar 2023

Why do inverse models disagree? A case study with two European CO2 inversions

Saqr Munassar, Guillaume Monteil, Marko Scholze, Ute Karstens, Christian Rödenbeck, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, and Christoph Gerbig

Related authors

The suitability of atmospheric oxygen measurements to constrain western European fossil-fuel CO2 emissions and their trends
Christian Rödenbeck, Karina E. Adcock, Markus Eritt, Maksym Gachkivskyi, Christoph Gerbig, Samuel Hammer, Armin Jordan, Ralph F. Keeling, Ingeborg Levin, Fabian Maier, Andrew C. Manning, Heiko Moossen, Saqr Munassar, Penelope A. Pickers, Michael Rothe, Yasunori Tohjima, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15767–15782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15767-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15767-2023, 2023
Short summary
The consolidated European synthesis of CO2 emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990–2020
Matthew J. McGrath, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Philippe Peylin, Robbie M. Andrew, Bradley Matthews, Frank Dentener, Juraj Balkovič, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Gregoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Giacomo Grassi, Ian Harris, Matthew Jones, Jürgen Knauer, Matthias Kuhnert, Guillaume Monteil, Saqr Munassar, Paul I. Palmer, Glen P. Peters, Chunjing Qiu, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Oksana Tarasova, Matteo Vizzarri, Karina Winkler, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Antoine Berchet, Peter Briggs, Patrick Brockmann, Frédéric Chevallier, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Sara Filipek, Pierre Friedlingstein, Richard Fuchs, Michael Gauss, Christoph Gerbig, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Richard A. Houghton, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ronny Lauerwald, Bas Lerink, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Géraud Moulas, Marilena Muntean, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Aurélie Paquirissamy, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, Roberto Pilli, Julia Pongratz, Pierre Regnier, Marko Scholze, Yusuf Serengil, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Rona L. Thompson, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, and Sophia Walther
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4295–4370, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) estimates 2006–2019 over Europe from a pre-operational ensemble-inversion system
Saqr Munassar, Christian Rödenbeck, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, Michał Gałkowski, Sophia Walther, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7875–7892, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7875-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7875-2022, 2022
Short summary
The consolidated European synthesis of CO2 emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990–2018
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Matthew J. McGrath, Robbie M. Andrew, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Francesco N. Tubiello, Christoph Gerbig, Julia Pongratz, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Giacomo Grassi, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, Matthias Kuhnert, Juraj Balkovič, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Efisio Solazzo, Chunjing Qiu, Roberto Pilli, Igor B. Konovalov, Richard A. Houghton, Dirk Günther, Lucia Perugini, Monica Crippa, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Pete Smith, Saqr Munassar, Rona L. Thompson, Giulia Conchedda, Guillaume Monteil, Marko Scholze, Ute Karstens, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2363–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2363-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2363-2021, 2021
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Biosphere Interactions | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) estimates 2006–2019 over Europe from a pre-operational ensemble-inversion system
Saqr Munassar, Christian Rödenbeck, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, Michał Gałkowski, Sophia Walther, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7875–7892, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7875-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7875-2022, 2022
Short summary
Interpreting machine learning prediction of fire emissions and comparison with FireMIP process-based models
Sally S.-C. Wang, Yun Qian, L. Ruby Leung, and Yang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3445–3468, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3445-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3445-2022, 2022
Short summary
Distinguishing the impacts of natural and anthropogenic aerosols on global gross primary productivity through diffuse fertilization effect
Hao Zhou, Xu Yue, Yadong Lei, Chenguang Tian, Jun Zhu, Yimian Ma, Yang Cao, Xixi Yin, and Zhiding Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 693–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-693-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-693-2022, 2022
Short summary
Was Australia a sink or source of CO2 in 2015? Data assimilation using OCO-2 satellite measurements
Yohanna Villalobos, Peter J. Rayner, Jeremy D. Silver, Steven Thomas, Vanessa Haverd, Jürgen Knauer, Zoë M. Loh, Nicholas M. Deutscher, David W. T. Griffith, and David F. Pollard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17453–17494, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17453-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17453-2021, 2021
Short summary
CO2-equivalence metrics for surface albedo change based on the radiative forcing concept: a critical review
Ryan M. Bright and Marianne T. Lund
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9887–9907, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9887-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9887-2021, 2021
Short summary

Cited articles

Babenhauserheide, A., Basu, S., Houweling, S., Peters, W., and Butz, A.: Comparing the CarbonTracker and TM5-4DVar data assimilation systems for CO2 surface flux inversions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9747–9763, 10.5194/acp-15-9747-2015, 2015. 
Baker, D. F., Law, R. M., Gurney, K. R., Rayner, P., Peylin, P., Denning, A. S., Bousquet, P., Bruhwiler, L., Chen, Y. H., Ciais, P., Fung, I. Y., Heimann, M., John, J., Maki, T., Maksyutov, S., Masarie, K., Prather, M., Pak, B., Taguchi, S., and Zhu, Z.: TransCom 3 inversion intercomparison: Impact of transport model errors on the interannual variability of regional CO2 fluxes, 1988–2003, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 20, Gb1002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gb002439, 2006. 
Bousquet, P., Ciais, P., Peylin, P., Ramonet, M., and Monfray, P.: Inverse modeling of annual atmospheric CO2 sources and sinks: 1. Method and control inversion, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104, 26161–26178, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900342, 1999. 
Broquet, G., Chevallier, F., Breon, F. M., Kadygrov, N., Alemanno, M., Apadula, F., Hammer, S., Haszpra, L., Meinhardt, F., Morgui, J. A., Necki, J., Piacentino, S., Ramonet, M., Schmidt, M., Thompson, R. L., Vermeulen, A. T., Yver, C., and Ciais, P.: Regional inversion of CO2 ecosystem fluxes from atmospheric measurements: reliability of the uncertainty estimates, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9039–9056, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9039-2013, 2013. 
Download
Short summary
Using different transport models results in large errors in optimized fluxes in the atmospheric inversions. Boundary conditions and inversion system configurations lead to a smaller but non-negligible impact. The findings highlight the importance to validate transport models for further developments but also to properly account for such errors in inverse modelling. This will help narrow the convergence of gas estimates reported in the scientific literature from different inversion frameworks.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint