Articles | Volume 23, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13883-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13883-2023
Research article
 | 
08 Nov 2023
Research article |  | 08 Nov 2023

Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone forecasts and analysis using the ECMWF ensemble forecasting system with physical parameterization perturbations

Miriam Saraceni, Lorenzo Silvestri, Peter Bechtold, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini

Related authors

Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over Central Mediterranean toward groundwater management
Lorenzo Silvestri, Miriam Saraceni, Giulia Passadore, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-889,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-889, 2024
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Technical note: Exploring parameter and meteorological uncertainty via emulation in volcanic ash atmospheric dispersion modelling
James M. Salter, Helen N. Webster, and Cameron Saint
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6251–6274, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6251-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6251-2024, 2024
Short summary
Role of the Indian Ocean basin mode in driving the interdecadal variations of summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon boundary zone
Jing Wang, Yanju Liu, Fei Cheng, Chengyu Song, Qiaoping Li, Yihui Ding, and Xiangde Xu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5099–5115, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5099-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Extreme ozone episodes in a major Mediterranean urban area
Jordi Massagué, Eduardo Torre-Pascual, Cristina Carnerero, Miguel Escudero, Andrés Alastuey, Marco Pandolfi, Xavier Querol, and Gotzon Gangoiti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4827–4850, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4827-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4827-2024, 2024
Short summary
Wintertime extreme warming events in the high Arctic: characteristics, drivers, trends, and the role of atmospheric rivers
Weiming Ma, Hailong Wang, Gang Chen, Yun Qian, Ian Baxter, Yiling Huo, and Mark W. Seefeldt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4451–4472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4451-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4451-2024, 2024
Short summary
Influence of lower-tropospheric moisture on local soil moisture–precipitation feedback over the US Southern Great Plains
Gaoyun Wang, Rong Fu, Yizhou Zhuang, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Joseph A. Santanello, Guiling Wang, Kun Yang, and Kaighin McColl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3857–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3857-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3857-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Baker, L. H., Rudd, A. C., Migliorini, S., and Bannister, R. N.: Representation of model error in a convective-scale ensemble prediction system, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 19–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-19-2014, 2014. a
Bechtold, P., Köhler, M., Jung, T., Doblas-Reyes, F., Leutbecher, M., Rodwell, M. J., Vitart, F., and Balsamo, G.: Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 1337–1351, 2008. a
Beljaars, A. C., Brown, A. R., and Wood, N.: A new parametrization of turbulent orographic form drag, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 1327–1347, 2004. a
Buizza, R.: The value of probabilistic prediction, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 9, 36–42, 2008. a
Buizza, R. and Hollingsworth, A.: Storm prediction over Europe using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, Meteorol. Appl., 9, 289–305, 2002. a
Download
Short summary
This study focuses on three medicanes, tropical-like cyclones that form in the Mediterranean Sea, studied by ensemble forecasting. This involved multiple simulations of the same event by varying initial conditions and model physics parameters, especially related to convection, which showed comparable results. It is found that medicane development is influenced by the model's ability to predict precursor events and the interaction between upper and lower atmosphere dynamics and thermodynamics.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint