Articles | Volume 23, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13883-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13883-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Nov 2023
Research article |
| 08 Nov 2023
| 08 Nov 2023
Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone forecasts and analysis using the ECMWF ensemble forecasting system with physical parameterization perturbations
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy
Lorenzo Silvestri
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy
Peter Bechtold
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Bonn, Germany
Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini
Department of Physics and Geology, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy
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Short summary
This study focuses on three medicanes, tropical-like cyclones that form in the Mediterranean Sea, studied by ensemble forecasting. This involved multiple simulations of the same event by varying initial conditions and model physics parameters, especially related to convection, which showed comparable results. It is found that medicane development is influenced by the model's ability to predict precursor events and the interaction between upper and lower atmosphere dynamics and thermodynamics.
This study focuses on three medicanes, tropical-like cyclones that form in the Mediterranean...
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