Articles | Volume 23, issue 21
Research article
08 Nov 2023
Research article |  | 08 Nov 2023

Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone forecasts and analysis using the ECMWF ensemble forecasting system with physical parameterization perturbations

Miriam Saraceni, Lorenzo Silvestri, Peter Bechtold, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini

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Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
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Cited articles

Baker, L. H., Rudd, A. C., Migliorini, S., and Bannister, R. N.: Representation of model error in a convective-scale ensemble prediction system, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 19–39,, 2014. a
Bechtold, P., Köhler, M., Jung, T., Doblas-Reyes, F., Leutbecher, M., Rodwell, M. J., Vitart, F., and Balsamo, G.: Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 1337–1351, 2008. a
Beljaars, A. C., Brown, A. R., and Wood, N.: A new parametrization of turbulent orographic form drag, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 1327–1347, 2004. a
Buizza, R.: The value of probabilistic prediction, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 9, 36–42, 2008. a
Buizza, R. and Hollingsworth, A.: Storm prediction over Europe using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, Meteorol. Appl., 9, 289–305, 2002. a
Short summary
This study focuses on three medicanes, tropical-like cyclones that form in the Mediterranean Sea, studied by ensemble forecasting. This involved multiple simulations of the same event by varying initial conditions and model physics parameters, especially related to convection, which showed comparable results. It is found that medicane development is influenced by the model's ability to predict precursor events and the interaction between upper and lower atmosphere dynamics and thermodynamics.
Final-revised paper