Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone forecasts and analysis using the ECMWF ensemble forecasting system with physical parameterization perturbations

Saraceni, Miriam; Silvestri, Lorenzo; Bechtold, Peter; Bongioannini Cerlini, Paolina

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13883-2023

Articles | Volume 23, issue 21

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13883-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13883-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 23, issue 21

Research article

|

08 Nov 2023

Research article |

| 08 Nov 2023

Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone forecasts and analysis using the ECMWF ensemble forecasting system with physical parameterization perturbations

Miriam Saraceni, Lorenzo Silvestri, Peter Bechtold, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13883-2023-supplement

Data sets

SPP ensemble simulations ECMWF https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/ecmwf-research-experiments

IMERG Late Run NASA https://gpm.nasa.gov/data/imerg

Model code and software

Codes for "Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones forecasts and analysis using the ECMWF Ensemble Forecasting System (IFS) with physical parameterizations perturbations" Miriam Saraceni, Lorenzo Silvestri, Peter Bechtold, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7912957

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Short summary

This study focuses on three medicanes, tropical-like cyclones that form in the Mediterranean Sea, studied by ensemble forecasting. This involved multiple simulations of the same event by varying initial conditions and model physics parameters, especially related to convection, which showed comparable results. It is found that medicane development is influenced by the model's ability to predict precursor events and the interaction between upper and lower atmosphere dynamics and thermodynamics.