Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
Research article
08 Mar 2018
Research article |  | 08 Mar 2018

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

Pavle Arsenovic, Eugene Rozanov, Julien Anet, Andrea Stenke, Werner Schmutz, and Thomas Peter

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Cited articles

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Anet, J. G., Muthers, S., Rozanov, E. V., Raible, C. C., Stenke, A., Shapiro, A. I., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Brugnara, Y., Beer, J., Steinhilber, F., Schmutz, W., and Peter, T.: Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum, Clim. Past, 10, 921–938,, 2014.
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Arsenovic, P.: CCM SOCOL3-MPOIM model output, available at:, last access: 8 March 2018.
Short summary
Global warming will persist in the 21st century, even if the solar activity undergoes an unusually strong and long decline. Decreased ozone production caused by reduction of solar activity and change of atmospheric dynamics due to the global warming might result in further thinning of the tropical ozone layer. Globally, total ozone would not recover to the pre-ozone hole values as long as the decline of solar activity lasts. This may let more ultra-violet radiation reach the Earth's surface.
Final-revised paper