Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3469-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3469-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Mar 2018
Research article |
| 08 Mar 2018
| 08 Mar 2018
Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate
Pavle Arsenovic
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zürich, Switzerland
Eugene Rozanov
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zürich, Switzerland
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland
Julien Anet
Zürich University of Applied Sciences, Winterthur, Switzerland
Andrea Stenke
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zürich, Switzerland
Werner Schmutz
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland
Thomas Peter
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zürich, Switzerland
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Total article views: 5,068 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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Cited
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Ozone—climate interactions and effects on solar ultraviolet radiation A. Bais et al. 10.1039/c8pp90059k
- No severe ozone depletion in the tropical stratosphere in recent decades J. Kuttippurath et al. 10.5194/acp-24-6743-2024
- Stratospheric ozone, UV radiation, and climate interactions G. Bernhard et al. 10.1007/s43630-023-00371-y
- Depletion of ozone layer: Review in reference to galactic radiations G. Kumar & M. Kumar 10.36953/ECJ.29342926
- Earth System Model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Acadeny of Sciences: Structure and Major Results A. Eliseev et al. 10.1134/S0001433825700069
- The historical ozone trends simulated with the SOCOLv4 and their comparison with observations and reanalyses A. Karagodin-Doyennel et al. 10.5194/acp-22-15333-2022
- Ozone Layer Evolution in the Early 20th Century T. Egorova et al. 10.3390/atmos11020169
- Global impacts of an extreme solar particle event under different geomagnetic field strengths P. Arsenović et al. 10.1073/pnas.2321770121
- The future ozone trends in changing climate simulated with SOCOLv4 A. Karagodin-Doyennel et al. 10.5194/acp-23-4801-2023
- Insignificant Impact of the “Stay-At-Home” Order on Ambient Air Quality in the Memphis Metropolitan Area, U.S.A. C. Jia et al. 10.3390/atmos11060630
- Investigation of the Vertical Influence of the 11-Year Solar Cycle on Ozone Using SBUV and Antarctic Ground-Based Measurements and CMIP6 Forcing Data A. Grytsai et al. 10.3390/atmos11080873
- Atmosphere–ocean–aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOLv4.0: description and evaluation T. Sukhodolov et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-5525-2021
- Contribution of Solar Irradiance Variations to Surface Air Temperature Trends at Different Latitudes Estimated from Long-term Data I. Mokhov & D. Smirnov 10.1007/s00024-023-03317-8
- Historical Review of Research on Fisheries vs. Climate Changes and Proposals for the Future in a Global Warming Context J. Pérez-Rubín & E. Pérez-Rubín 10.3390/jmse13020260
- Equilibrium Climate after Spectral and Bolometric Irradiance Reduction in Grand Solar Minimum Simulations N. Tartaglione et al. 10.3390/cli12010001
- Twenty-First-Century Climate Change Hot Spots in the Light of a Weakening Sun T. Spiegl & U. Langematz 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0059.1
- UVSQ-SAT, a Pathfinder CubeSat Mission for Observing Essential Climate Variables M. Meftah et al. 10.3390/rs12010092
- Future Climate Under CMIP6 Solar Activity Scenarios J. Sedlacek et al. 10.1029/2022EA002783
- A global environmental crisis 42,000 years ago A. Cooper et al. 10.1126/science.abb8677
- Climate implications of the sun transition to higher activity mode T. Egorova et al. 10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106020
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Ozone—climate interactions and effects on solar ultraviolet radiation A. Bais et al. 10.1039/c8pp90059k
- No severe ozone depletion in the tropical stratosphere in recent decades J. Kuttippurath et al. 10.5194/acp-24-6743-2024
- Stratospheric ozone, UV radiation, and climate interactions G. Bernhard et al. 10.1007/s43630-023-00371-y
- Depletion of ozone layer: Review in reference to galactic radiations G. Kumar & M. Kumar 10.36953/ECJ.29342926
- Earth System Model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Acadeny of Sciences: Structure and Major Results A. Eliseev et al. 10.1134/S0001433825700069
- The historical ozone trends simulated with the SOCOLv4 and their comparison with observations and reanalyses A. Karagodin-Doyennel et al. 10.5194/acp-22-15333-2022
- Ozone Layer Evolution in the Early 20th Century T. Egorova et al. 10.3390/atmos11020169
- Global impacts of an extreme solar particle event under different geomagnetic field strengths P. Arsenović et al. 10.1073/pnas.2321770121
- The future ozone trends in changing climate simulated with SOCOLv4 A. Karagodin-Doyennel et al. 10.5194/acp-23-4801-2023
- Insignificant Impact of the “Stay-At-Home” Order on Ambient Air Quality in the Memphis Metropolitan Area, U.S.A. C. Jia et al. 10.3390/atmos11060630
- Investigation of the Vertical Influence of the 11-Year Solar Cycle on Ozone Using SBUV and Antarctic Ground-Based Measurements and CMIP6 Forcing Data A. Grytsai et al. 10.3390/atmos11080873
- Atmosphere–ocean–aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOLv4.0: description and evaluation T. Sukhodolov et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-5525-2021
- Contribution of Solar Irradiance Variations to Surface Air Temperature Trends at Different Latitudes Estimated from Long-term Data I. Mokhov & D. Smirnov 10.1007/s00024-023-03317-8
- Historical Review of Research on Fisheries vs. Climate Changes and Proposals for the Future in a Global Warming Context J. Pérez-Rubín & E. Pérez-Rubín 10.3390/jmse13020260
- Equilibrium Climate after Spectral and Bolometric Irradiance Reduction in Grand Solar Minimum Simulations N. Tartaglione et al. 10.3390/cli12010001
- Twenty-First-Century Climate Change Hot Spots in the Light of a Weakening Sun T. Spiegl & U. Langematz 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0059.1
- UVSQ-SAT, a Pathfinder CubeSat Mission for Observing Essential Climate Variables M. Meftah et al. 10.3390/rs12010092
- Future Climate Under CMIP6 Solar Activity Scenarios J. Sedlacek et al. 10.1029/2022EA002783
- A global environmental crisis 42,000 years ago A. Cooper et al. 10.1126/science.abb8677
- Climate implications of the sun transition to higher activity mode T. Egorova et al. 10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106020
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 31 Oct 2025
Short summary
Global warming will persist in the 21st century, even if the solar activity undergoes an unusually strong and long decline. Decreased ozone production caused by reduction of solar activity and change of atmospheric dynamics due to the global warming might result in further thinning of the tropical ozone layer. Globally, total ozone would not recover to the pre-ozone hole values as long as the decline of solar activity lasts. This may let more ultra-violet radiation reach the Earth's surface.
Global warming will persist in the 21st century, even if the solar activity undergoes an...
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Final-revised paper
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