Articles | Volume 18, issue 13
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9975–10006, 2018
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9975–10006, 2018

Research article 13 Jul 2018

Research article | 13 Jul 2018

Aerosol and physical atmosphere model parameters are both important sources of uncertainty in aerosol ERF

Leighton A. Regayre et al.

Related authors

The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty
Leighton A. Regayre, Julia Schmale, Jill S. Johnson, Christian Tatzelt, Andrea Baccarini, Silvia Henning, Masaru Yoshioka, Frank Stratmann, Martin Gysel-Beer, Daniel P. Grosvenor, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10063–10072,,, 2020
Short summary
Robust observational constraint of uncertain aerosol processes and emissions in a climate model and the effect on aerosol radiative forcing
Jill S. Johnson, Leighton A. Regayre, Masaru Yoshioka, Kirsty J. Pringle, Steven T. Turnock, Jo Browse, David M. H. Sexton, John W. Rostron, Nick A. J. Schutgens, Daniel G. Partridge, Dantong Liu, James D. Allan, Hugh Coe, Aijun Ding, David D. Cohen, Armand Atanacio, Ville Vakkari, Eija Asmi, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9491–9524,,, 2020
Short summary
Radiative forcing of climate change from the Copernicus reanalysis of atmospheric composition
Nicolas Bellouin, Will Davies, Keith P. Shine, Johannes Quaas, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Lindsay Lee, Leighton Regayre, Guy Brasseur, Natalia Sudarchikova, Idir Bouarar, Olivier Boucher, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1649–1677,,, 2020
Short summary
The importance of comprehensive parameter sampling and multiple observations for robust constraint of aerosol radiative forcing
Jill S. Johnson, Leighton A. Regayre, Masaru Yoshioka, Kirsty J. Pringle, Lindsay A. Lee, David M. H. Sexton, John W. Rostron, Ben B. B. Booth, and Kenneth S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13031–13053,,, 2018
Short summary
FAIR v1.3: a simple emissions-based impulse response and carbon cycle model
Christopher J. Smith, Piers M. Forster, Myles Allen, Nicholas Leach, Richard J. Millar, Giovanni A. Passerello, and Leighton A. Regayre
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2273–2297,,, 2018
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Aerosols | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Characteristics of surface energy balance and atmospheric circulation during hot-and-polluted episodes and their synergistic relationships with urban heat islands over the Pearl River Delta region
Ifeanyichukwu C. Nduka, Chi-Yung Tam, Jianping Guo, and Steve Hung Lam Yim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13443–13454,,, 2021
Short summary
Influence of sea salt aerosols on the development of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones
Enrique Pravia-Sarabia, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, and Juan Pedro Montávez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13353–13368,,, 2021
Short summary
Quantification of uncertainties in the assessment of an atmospheric release source applied to the autumn 2017 106Ru event
Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Marc Bocquet, Olivier Saunier, and Yelva Roustan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13247–13267,,, 2021
Short summary
Forecasting and identifying the meteorological and hydrological conditions favoring the occurrence of severe hazes in Beijing and Shanghai using deep learning
Chien Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13149–13166,,, 2021
Short summary
Improving prediction of trans-boundary biomass burning plume dispersion: from northern peninsular Southeast Asia to downwind western North Pacific Ocean
Maggie Chel-Gee Ooi, Ming-Tung Chuang, Joshua S. Fu, Steven S. Kong, Wei-Syun Huang, Sheng-Hsiang Wang, Sittichai Pimonsree, Andy Chan, Shantanu Kumar Pani, and Neng-Huei Lin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12521–12541,,, 2021
Short summary

Cited articles

Allen, R. J., Norris, J. R., and Kovilakam, M.: Influence of anthropogenic aerosols and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on tropical belt width, Nat. Geosci., 7, 270–274,, 2014. a, b
Andreae, M. O., Jones, C. D., and Cox, P. M.: Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future, Nature, 435, 1187–1190,, 2005. a
Andrianakis, I., Vernon, I., McCreesh, N., McKinley, T. J., Oakley, J. E., Nsubuga, R. N., Goldstein, M., and White, R. G.: History matching of a complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus transmission by using variance emulation, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. C-App., 66, 717–740,, 2017. a
Barker, H. W. and Räisänen, P.: Radiative sensitivities for cloud structural properties that are unresolved by conventional GCMs, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 3103–3122,, 2005. a
Barrett, T. J., Brattström, S., Sharma, S., Worthy, D. E. J., and Novelli, P.: The role of scavenging in the seasonal transport of black carbon and sulfate to the Arctic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16805,, 2011. a
Short summary
We sample uncertainty in one climate model by perturbing aerosol and physical atmosphere parameters. Our uncertainty is comparable to multi-model studies. Atmospheric parameters cause most of the top-of-atmosphere flux uncertainty; uncertainty in aerosol forcing is mostly caused by aerosols: both are important. The strongest aerosol forcings are inconsistent with top-of-atmosphere flux observations. Better constraint requires observations that share causes of uncertainty with aerosol forcing.
Final-revised paper