Articles | Volume 18, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9975-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9975-2018
Research article
 | 
13 Jul 2018
Research article |  | 13 Jul 2018

Aerosol and physical atmosphere model parameters are both important sources of uncertainty in aerosol ERF

Leighton A. Regayre, Jill S. Johnson, Masaru Yoshioka, Kirsty J. Pringle, David M. H. Sexton, Ben B. B. Booth, Lindsay A. Lee, Nicolas Bellouin, and Kenneth S. Carslaw

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Cited articles

Allen, R. J., Norris, J. R., and Kovilakam, M.: Influence of anthropogenic aerosols and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on tropical belt width, Nat. Geosci., 7, 270–274, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2091, 2014. a, b
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Andrianakis, I., Vernon, I., McCreesh, N., McKinley, T. J., Oakley, J. E., Nsubuga, R. N., Goldstein, M., and White, R. G.: History matching of a complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus transmission by using variance emulation, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. C-App., 66, 717–740, https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12198, 2017. a
Barker, H. W. and Räisänen, P.: Radiative sensitivities for cloud structural properties that are unresolved by conventional GCMs, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 3103–3122, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.174, 2005. a
Barrett, T. J., Brattström, S., Sharma, S., Worthy, D. E. J., and Novelli, P.: The role of scavenging in the seasonal transport of black carbon and sulfate to the Arctic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16805, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048221, 2011. a
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We sample uncertainty in one climate model by perturbing aerosol and physical atmosphere parameters. Our uncertainty is comparable to multi-model studies. Atmospheric parameters cause most of the top-of-atmosphere flux uncertainty; uncertainty in aerosol forcing is mostly caused by aerosols: both are important. The strongest aerosol forcings are inconsistent with top-of-atmosphere flux observations. Better constraint requires observations that share causes of uncertainty with aerosol forcing.
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