Articles | Volume 13, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5163-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5163-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 May 2013
Research article |
| 22 May 2013
Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models
S. D. Outten
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Thormhlensgt. 47, 5006 Bergen, Norway
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Thormhlensgt. 47, 5006 Bergen, Norway
Related authors
Lise Seland Graff, Jerry Tjiputra, Ada Gjermundsen, Andreas Born, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Heiko Goelzer, Yan-Chun He, Petra Margaretha Langebroek, Aleksi Nummelin, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Trude Storelvmo, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Andrea Rosendahl, Dandan Tao, Thomas Toniazzo, Camille Li, Stephen Outten, and Michael Schulz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-472, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
The magnitude of future Arctic amplification is highly uncertain. Using the Norwegian Earth system model, we explore the effect of improving the representation of clouds, ocean eddies, the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice, and ozone on the projected Arctic winter warming in a coordinated experiment set. These improvements all lead to enhanced projected Arctic warming, with the largest changes found in the sea-ice retreat regions and the largest uncertainty on the Atlantic side.
Stephen Outten and Richard Davy
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 753–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to wintertime weather events over Europe. One feature often overlooked is how much the climate variability explained by the NAO has changed over time. We show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage variance explained by the NAO over the 20th century and that this is not reproduced by 50 CMIP6 climate models, which are generally biased too high. This has implications for projections and prediction of weather events in the region.
Stephen Outten, Camille Li, Martin P. King, Lingling Suo, Peter Y. F. Siew, Hoffman Cheung, Richard Davy, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Tore Furevik, Shengping He, Erica Madonna, Stefan Sobolowski, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 95–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Strong disagreement exists in the scientific community over the role of Arctic sea ice in shaping wintertime Eurasian cooling. The observed Eurasian cooling can arise naturally without sea-ice loss but is expected to be a rare event. We propose a framework that incorporates sea-ice retreat and natural variability as contributing factors. A helpful analogy is of a dice roll that may result in cooling, warming, or anything in between, with sea-ice loss acting to load the dice in favour of cooling.
Clio Michel, Erica Madonna, Clemens Spensberger, Camille Li, and Stephen Outten
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1131–1148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models still struggle to correctly represent blocking frequency over the North Atlantic–European domain. This study makes use of five large ensembles of climate simulations and the ERA-Interim reanalyses to investigate the Greenland blocking frequency and one of its drivers, namely cyclonic Rossby wave breaking. We particularly try to understand the discrepancies between two specific models, out of the five, that behave differently.
Emily Gleeson, Stephen Outten, Bjørg Jenny Kokkvoll Engdahl, Eoin Whelan, Ulf Andrae, and Laura Rontu
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 255–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-255-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-255-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The single-column version of the shared ALADIN-HIRLAM numerical weather prediction system, called MUSC, was developed by Météo-France in the 2000s and has a growing user-base. Tools to derive the required input, to run experiments and to handle outputs have been developed within the HARMONIE-AROME configuration of the ALADIN-HIRLAM system. We also illustrate the usefulness of MUSC for testing and developing physical parametrizations related to cloud microphysics and radiative transfer.
I. Esau, R. Davy, S. Outten, S. Tyuryakov, and S. Zilitinkevich
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 589–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-589-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-589-2013, 2013
Lihong Zhou and Igor Esau
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-25, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-25, 2025
Preprint under review for WES
Short summary
Short summary
This study tackles a key wind energy challenge: how much hourly wind data is needed for accurate resource assessment. One year of data recommended by guidelines is unable to capture year-to-year variations. The study finds basic stats stabilize quickly, but complex patterns need up to 88 years. Randomly sampled data can match continuous records, offering cost-effective solutions. These insights optimize data collection, balancing accuracy and costs, advancing renewable energy planning.
Lise Seland Graff, Jerry Tjiputra, Ada Gjermundsen, Andreas Born, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Heiko Goelzer, Yan-Chun He, Petra Margaretha Langebroek, Aleksi Nummelin, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Trude Storelvmo, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Andrea Rosendahl, Dandan Tao, Thomas Toniazzo, Camille Li, Stephen Outten, and Michael Schulz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-472, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
The magnitude of future Arctic amplification is highly uncertain. Using the Norwegian Earth system model, we explore the effect of improving the representation of clouds, ocean eddies, the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice, and ozone on the projected Arctic winter warming in a coordinated experiment set. These improvements all lead to enhanced projected Arctic warming, with the largest changes found in the sea-ice retreat regions and the largest uncertainty on the Atlantic side.
Petra Bauerová, Josef Keder, Adriana Šindelářová, Ondřej Vlček, William Patiño, Jaroslav Resler, Pavel Krč, Jan Geletič, Hynek Řezníček, Martin Bureš, Kryštof Eben, Michal Belda, Jelena Radović, Vladimír Fuka, Radek Jareš, and Igor Ezau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1222, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We implemented an observation campaign focused on street-level air quality and vertical meteorological profile measurement in Prague using low-cost sensors and remote sensing devices. Low-cost sensors have undergone long-term field testing, own data correction and drift evaluation procedures. A high level of NO2 pollution was confirmed due to the traffic load in streets, peaks of aerosol pollution appeared more under inversion conditions. The data will be further used for PALM model validation.
Stephen Outten and Richard Davy
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 753–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to wintertime weather events over Europe. One feature often overlooked is how much the climate variability explained by the NAO has changed over time. We show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage variance explained by the NAO over the 20th century and that this is not reproduced by 50 CMIP6 climate models, which are generally biased too high. This has implications for projections and prediction of weather events in the region.
Stephen Outten, Camille Li, Martin P. King, Lingling Suo, Peter Y. F. Siew, Hoffman Cheung, Richard Davy, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Tore Furevik, Shengping He, Erica Madonna, Stefan Sobolowski, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 95–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Strong disagreement exists in the scientific community over the role of Arctic sea ice in shaping wintertime Eurasian cooling. The observed Eurasian cooling can arise naturally without sea-ice loss but is expected to be a rare event. We propose a framework that incorporates sea-ice retreat and natural variability as contributing factors. A helpful analogy is of a dice roll that may result in cooling, warming, or anything in between, with sea-ice loss acting to load the dice in favour of cooling.
Hanna K. Lappalainen, Tuukka Petäjä, Timo Vihma, Jouni Räisänen, Alexander Baklanov, Sergey Chalov, Igor Esau, Ekaterina Ezhova, Matti Leppäranta, Dmitry Pozdnyakov, Jukka Pumpanen, Meinrat O. Andreae, Mikhail Arshinov, Eija Asmi, Jianhui Bai, Igor Bashmachnikov, Boris Belan, Federico Bianchi, Boris Biskaborn, Michael Boy, Jaana Bäck, Bin Cheng, Natalia Chubarova, Jonathan Duplissy, Egor Dyukarev, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Martin Forsius, Martin Heimann, Sirkku Juhola, Vladimir Konovalov, Igor Konovalov, Pavel Konstantinov, Kajar Köster, Elena Lapshina, Anna Lintunen, Alexander Mahura, Risto Makkonen, Svetlana Malkhazova, Ivan Mammarella, Stefano Mammola, Stephany Buenrostro Mazon, Outi Meinander, Eugene Mikhailov, Victoria Miles, Stanislav Myslenkov, Dmitry Orlov, Jean-Daniel Paris, Roberta Pirazzini, Olga Popovicheva, Jouni Pulliainen, Kimmo Rautiainen, Torsten Sachs, Vladimir Shevchenko, Andrey Skorokhod, Andreas Stohl, Elli Suhonen, Erik S. Thomson, Marina Tsidilina, Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen, Petteri Uotila, Aki Virkkula, Nadezhda Voropay, Tobias Wolf, Sayaka Yasunaka, Jiahua Zhang, Yubao Qiu, Aijun Ding, Huadong Guo, Valery Bondur, Nikolay Kasimov, Sergej Zilitinkevich, Veli-Matti Kerminen, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4413–4469, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We summarize results during the last 5 years in the northern Eurasian region, especially from Russia, and introduce recent observations of the air quality in the urban environments in China. Although the scientific knowledge in these regions has increased, there are still gaps in our understanding of large-scale climate–Earth surface interactions and feedbacks. This arises from limitations in research infrastructures and integrative data analyses, hindering a comprehensive system analysis.
Clio Michel, Erica Madonna, Clemens Spensberger, Camille Li, and Stephen Outten
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1131–1148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models still struggle to correctly represent blocking frequency over the North Atlantic–European domain. This study makes use of five large ensembles of climate simulations and the ERA-Interim reanalyses to investigate the Greenland blocking frequency and one of its drivers, namely cyclonic Rossby wave breaking. We particularly try to understand the discrepancies between two specific models, out of the five, that behave differently.
Tobias Wolf, Lasse H. Pettersson, and Igor Esau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12463–12477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12463-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12463-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
House heating by wood-burning stoves is cozy and needed in boreal cities, e.g., Bergen, Norway. But smoke (aerosols) from stoves may reduce urban air quality. It can be transported over long distance excessively polluting some neighborhoods. Who will suffer the most? Our modelling study looks at urban pollution in unprecedented meter-sized details tracing smoke pathways and turbulent dispersion in a typical city. We prototype effective policy scenarios to mitigate urban air quality problems.
Igor Esau, Victoria Miles, Andrey Soromotin, Oleg Sizov, Mikhail Varentsov, and Pavel Konstantinov
Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 51–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-51-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-51-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Persistent warm urban temperature anomalies – urban heat islands – significantly enhance already amplified climate warming in the Arctic. This study presents the surface urban heat islands in all circum-Arctic settlements with more than 3000 inhabitants. It reveals strong and persistent urban temperature anomalies during both summer and winter seasons that vary in different cities from 0.5 °C to more than 6.0 °C.
Emily Gleeson, Stephen Outten, Bjørg Jenny Kokkvoll Engdahl, Eoin Whelan, Ulf Andrae, and Laura Rontu
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 255–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-255-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-255-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The single-column version of the shared ALADIN-HIRLAM numerical weather prediction system, called MUSC, was developed by Météo-France in the 2000s and has a growing user-base. Tools to derive the required input, to run experiments and to handle outputs have been developed within the HARMONIE-AROME configuration of the ALADIN-HIRLAM system. We also illustrate the usefulness of MUSC for testing and developing physical parametrizations related to cloud microphysics and radiative transfer.
Tobias Wolf, Lasse H. Pettersson, and Igor Esau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 625–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-625-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-625-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Exceedances of legal thresholds for urban air pollution are of wide concern. We demonstrate the usefulness of very high-resolution modelling for the assessment of air pollution in the urban space on the example of Bergen, Norway. Vulnerability maps highlight areas with high pollutant loading and pathways for pollutant dispersion. This supports the understanding of urban air pollution beyond existing, scarce monitoring networks and possibly the mitigation of impacts on the local population.
Mikhail Varentsov, Pavel Konstantinov, Alexander Baklanov, Igor Esau, Victoria Miles, and Richard Davy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17573–17587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17573-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17573-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study reports on the urban heat island (UHI) in a typical Arctic city in winter. Using in situ observations, remote sensing data and modeling, we show that the urban temperature anomaly reaches up to 11 K with a mean value of 1.9 K. At least 50 % of this anomaly is caused by the UHI effect, driven mostly by heating. The rest is created by natural microclimatic variability over the hilly terrain. This is a strong argument in support of energy efficiency measures in the Arctic cities.
Tobias Wolf-Grosse, Igor Esau, and Joachim Reuder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7261–7276, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7261-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7261-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this publication we used a number of very high (10 m) resolution simulations in order to assess the circulation in a coastal mountain city under high-air-pollution conditions. We found that forcings of the valley circulation through local surface inhomogeneities can have a distinct impact on the pollution distribution in the urban area. The work serves as a proof of concept for the applied high-resolution simulations to assess pollution conditions in the urban area under the given conditions.
Hanna K. Lappalainen, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Tuukka Petäjä, Theo Kurten, Aleksander Baklanov, Anatoly Shvidenko, Jaana Bäck, Timo Vihma, Pavel Alekseychik, Meinrat O. Andreae, Stephen R. Arnold, Mikhail Arshinov, Eija Asmi, Boris Belan, Leonid Bobylev, Sergey Chalov, Yafang Cheng, Natalia Chubarova, Gerrit de Leeuw, Aijun Ding, Sergey Dobrolyubov, Sergei Dubtsov, Egor Dyukarev, Nikolai Elansky, Kostas Eleftheriadis, Igor Esau, Nikolay Filatov, Mikhail Flint, Congbin Fu, Olga Glezer, Aleksander Gliko, Martin Heimann, Albert A. M. Holtslag, Urmas Hõrrak, Juha Janhunen, Sirkku Juhola, Leena Järvi, Heikki Järvinen, Anna Kanukhina, Pavel Konstantinov, Vladimir Kotlyakov, Antti-Jussi Kieloaho, Alexander S. Komarov, Joni Kujansuu, Ilmo Kukkonen, Ella-Maria Duplissy, Ari Laaksonen, Tuomas Laurila, Heikki Lihavainen, Alexander Lisitzin, Alexsander Mahura, Alexander Makshtas, Evgeny Mareev, Stephany Mazon, Dmitry Matishov, Vladimir Melnikov, Eugene Mikhailov, Dmitri Moisseev, Robert Nigmatulin, Steffen M. Noe, Anne Ojala, Mari Pihlatie, Olga Popovicheva, Jukka Pumpanen, Tatjana Regerand, Irina Repina, Aleksei Shcherbinin, Vladimir Shevchenko, Mikko Sipilä, Andrey Skorokhod, Dominick V. Spracklen, Hang Su, Dmitry A. Subetto, Junying Sun, Arkady Y. Terzhevik, Yuri Timofeyev, Yuliya Troitskaya, Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen, Viacheslav I. Kharuk, Nina Zaytseva, Jiahua Zhang, Yrjö Viisanen, Timo Vesala, Pertti Hari, Hans Christen Hansson, Gennady G. Matvienko, Nikolai S. Kasimov, Huadong Guo, Valery Bondur, Sergej Zilitinkevich, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14421–14461, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14421-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14421-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
After kick off in 2012, the Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) program has expanded fast and today the multi-disciplinary research community covers ca. 80 institutes and a network of ca. 500 scientists from Europe, Russia, and China. Here we introduce scientific topics relevant in this context. This is one of the first multi-disciplinary overviews crossing scientific boundaries, from atmospheric sciences to socio-economics and social sciences.
Igor Esau, Victoria V. Miles, Richard Davy, Martin W. Miles, and Anna Kurchatova
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9563–9577, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9563-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9563-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation cover in the remote and cold areas of northern West Siberia is rapidly changing. Analysis of summer maximum vegetation productivity index collected over 15 years (2000–2014) by Terra/Aqua satellites revealed “greening” over the northern (tundra/tundra-forest) and widespread “browning” over the southern (taiga) parts of the region. The vegetation changes around 28 urbanized areas were different. Many Siberian cities become greener even against wider browning trends at the background.
I. Esau, R. Davy, S. Outten, S. Tyuryakov, and S. Zilitinkevich
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 589–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-589-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-589-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Valley floor inclination affecting valley winds and transport of passive tracers in idealised simulations
To what extent is the description of streets important in estimating local air quality: a case study over Paris
Variability and trends in the potential vorticity (PV)-gradient dynamical tropopause
Country and species-dependent parameters for the Heating Degree Day method to distribute NOx and PM emissions from residential heating in the EU-27: application to air quality modelling and multi-year emission projections
The marinada fall wind in the eastern Ebro sub-basin: physical mechanisms and role of the sea, orography and irrigation
The influences of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on tropospheric ozone in CMIP6 models
Technical note: Exploring parameter and meteorological uncertainty via emulation in volcanic ash atmospheric dispersion modelling
Role of the Indian Ocean basin mode in driving the interdecadal variations of summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon boundary zone
Extreme ozone episodes in a major Mediterranean urban area
Wintertime extreme warming events in the high Arctic: characteristics, drivers, trends, and the role of atmospheric rivers
Influence of lower-tropospheric moisture on local soil moisture–precipitation feedback over the US Southern Great Plains
The Lagrangian Atmospheric Radionuclide Transport Model (ARTM) – sensitivity studies and evaluation using airborne measurements of power plant emissions
Large-eddy-model closure and simulation of turbulent flux patterns over oasis surface
Impact of the Guinea coast upwelling on atmospheric dynamics, precipitation and pollutant transport over southern West Africa
Investigating multiscale meteorological controls and impact of soil moisture heterogeneity on radiation fog in complex terrain using semi-idealised simulations
Effect of the boundary layer low-level jet on fast fog spatial propagation
Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone forecasts and analysis using the ECMWF ensemble forecasting system with physical parameterization perturbations
Using synthetic case studies to explore the spread and calibration of ensemble atmospheric dispersion forecasts
Meteorological modeling sensitivity to parameterizations and satellite-derived surface datasets during the 2017 Lake Michigan Ozone Study
Trajectory enhancement of low-earth orbiter thermodynamic retrievals to predict convection: a simulation experiment
Lagrangian transport simulations using the extreme convection parameterization: an assessment for the ECMWF reanalyses
Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates
Determination of the chemical equator from GEOS-Chem model simulation: a focus on the tropical western Pacific region
Uncertainty in parameterized convection remains a key obstacle for estimating surface fluxes of carbon dioxide
Antarctic atmospheric Richardson number from radiosonde measurements and AMPS
Divergent convective outflow in large-eddy simulations
Modulation of daily PM2.5 concentrations over China in winter by large-scale circulation and climate change
Modeling of street-scale pollutant dispersion by coupled simulation of chemical reaction, aerosol dynamics, and CFD
Daytime along-valley winds in the Himalayas as simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Evolution of squall line variability and error growth in an ensemble of large eddy simulations
Climatology and variability of air mass transport from the boundary layer to the Asian monsoon anticyclone
Evaluation and bias correction of probabilistic volcanic ash forecasts
The representation of the trade winds in ECMWF forecasts and reanalyses during EUREC4A
Modeling approaches for atmospheric ion–dipole collisions: all-atom trajectory simulations and central field methods
Parameterizing the aerodynamic effect of trees in street canyons for the street network model MUNICH using the CFD model Code_Saturne
Quantifying the impact of meteorological uncertainty on emission estimates and the risk to aviation using source inversion for the Raikoke 2019 eruption
Acceleration of the southern African easterly jet driven by the radiative effect of biomass burning aerosols and its impact on transport during AEROCLO-sA
The Sun's role in decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic
Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble
Refining an ensemble of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite retrievals: Raikoke 2019
Ship-based estimates of momentum transfer coefficient over sea ice and recommendations for its parameterization
Revising the definition of anthropogenic heat flux from buildings: role of human activities and building storage heat flux
An assessment of tropopause characteristics of the ERA5 and ERA-Interim meteorological reanalyses
Distinct evolutions of haze pollution from winter to the following spring over the North China Plain: role of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies
The foehn effect during easterly flow over Svalbard
Effect of rainfall-induced diabatic heating over southern China on the formation of wintertime haze on the North China Plain
Anthropogenic aerosol effects on tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (1980–2020): separating the role of zonally asymmetric forcings
Lightning-ignited wildfires and long continuing current lightning in the Mediterranean Basin: preferential meteorological conditions
Identifying source regions of air masses sampled at the tropical high-altitude site of Chacaltaya using WRF-FLEXPART and cluster analysis
Modelling spatiotemporal variations of the canopy layer urban heat island in Beijing at the neighbourhood scale
Johannes Mikkola, Alexander Gohm, Victoria A. Sinclair, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 511–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-511-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-511-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the influence of valley floor inclination on diurnal winds and passive tracer transport within idealised mountain valleys using numerical simulations. The valley inclination strengthens the daytime up-valley winds but only up to a certain point. Beyond that critical angle, the winds weaken again. The inclined valleys transport the tracers higher up in the free troposphere, which would, for example, lead to higher potential for long-range transport.
Alexis Squarcioni, Yelva Roustan, Myrto Valari, Youngseob Kim, Karine Sartelet, Lya Lugon, Fabrice Dugay, and Robin Voitot
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 93–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-93-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-93-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study highlights the interest of using a street-network model to estimate pollutant concentrations of NOx, NO2, and PM2.5 in heterogeneous urban areas, particularly those adjacent to highways, compared with the subgrid-scale approach embedded in the 3D Eulerian model CHIMERE. However, the study also reveals comparable performances between the two approaches for the aforementioned pollutants in areas near the city center, where urban characteristics are more uniform.
Katharina Turhal, Felix Plöger, Jan Clemens, Thomas Birner, Franziska Weyland, Paul Konopka, and Peter Hoor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13653–13679, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The tropopause separates the troposphere, where many greenhouse gases originate, from the stratosphere. This study examines a tropopause defined by potential vorticity – an analogue for angular momentum that changes sharply in the subtropics, creating a transport barrier. Between 1980 and 2017, this tropopause shifted poleward at lower altitudes and equatorward above, suggesting height-dependent changes in atmospheric circulation that may affect greenhouse gas distribution and global warming.
Antoine Guion, Florian Couvidat, Marc Guevara, and Augustin Colette
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2911, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2911, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The residential sector can cause high background levels of pollutants and pollution peaks in winter. Its emissions are dominated by space heating and show strong daily variations linked to changes in outside temperature. Using Heating Degree Days, we provide country- and species-dependent parameters for the distribution of these emissions, improving the performance of the CHIMERE air quality model. This approach also allows to project annual residential emissions before official publications.
Tanguy Lunel, Maria Antonia Jimenez, Joan Cuxart, Daniel Martinez-Villagrasa, Aaron Boone, and Patrick Le Moigne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7637–7666, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7637-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7637-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During the summer in Catalonia, a cool wind, the marinada, blows into the eastern Ebro basin in the afternoon. This study investigates its previously unclear dynamics using observations and a meteorological model. It is found to be driven by a cool marine air mass that flows over the mountains into the basin. The study shows how the sea breeze, upslope winds, larger weather patterns and irrigation play a prominent role in the formation and characteristics of the marinada.
Thanh Le, Seon-Ho Kim, Jae-Yeong Heo, and Deg-Hyo Bae
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6555–6566, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the links between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropospheric ozone (O3) using model data. Our results show that ENSO impacts on tropospheric O3 are mainly found over oceans, while the signature of ENSO over continents is largely unclear. These impacts in the midlatitude regions over the Southern Hemisphere may be more significant than previously known. The responses of O3 to ENSO are weak in the middle troposphere and stronger in the upper and lower troposphere.
James M. Salter, Helen N. Webster, and Cameron Saint
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6251–6274, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6251-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Models are used to make forecasts of volcanic ash dispersion during eruptions. These models have unknown inputs relating to the eruption itself, physical processes, and meteorological conditions. We use statistical models to predict the output of the expensive physical model and show we can account for the effects of the different inputs. We compare the model to real-world observations and show that accounting for all sources of uncertainty may lead to different conclusions about the inputs.
Jing Wang, Yanju Liu, Fei Cheng, Chengyu Song, Qiaoping Li, Yihui Ding, and Xiangde Xu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5099–5115, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Based on long-term observational, reanalysis, and numerical model simulation datasets from 1901 through 2014, this study shows that precipitation over the East Asian monsoon boundary zone featured prominent interdecadal changes, with dry summers during the periods preceding 1927, 1939–1945, 1968–1982, and 1998–2010 and wet summers during 1928–1938, 1946–1967, and 2011 onwards. The Indian Ocean basin mode is an important oceanic modulator responsible for its interdecadal variations.
Jordi Massagué, Eduardo Torre-Pascual, Cristina Carnerero, Miguel Escudero, Andrés Alastuey, Marco Pandolfi, Xavier Querol, and Gotzon Gangoiti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4827–4850, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4827-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4827-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses three acute ozone episodes in Barcelona (NE Spain) which have occurred only in recent years and are of particular concern due to the city's significant population. The findings uncover a complex interplay of factors, notably shared among episodes, including pollution transport at different scales and specific weather and emission patterns. These insights significantly enhance our understanding of these occurrences and improve predictive capabilities.
Weiming Ma, Hailong Wang, Gang Chen, Yun Qian, Ian Baxter, Yiling Huo, and Mark W. Seefeldt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4451–4472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4451-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4451-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme warming events with surface temperature going above 0°C can occur in the high-Arctic winter. Although reanalysis data show that these events were short-lived and occurred rarely during 1980–2021, they have become more frequent, stronger, and longer lasting latterly. A dipole pattern, comprising high- and low-pressure systems, is found to be the key in driving them. These findings have implications for the recent changes in sea ice, hydrological cycle, and ecosystem over the Arctic.
Gaoyun Wang, Rong Fu, Yizhou Zhuang, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Joseph A. Santanello, Guiling Wang, Kun Yang, and Kaighin McColl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3857–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3857-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the influence of lower-tropospheric humidity on land–atmosphere coupling (LAC) during warm seasons in the US Southern Great Plains. Using radiosonde data and a buoyancy model, we find that elevated LT humidity is crucial for generating afternoon precipitation events under dry soil conditions not accounted for by conventional LAC indices. This underscores the importance of considering LT humidity in understanding LAC over dry soil during droughts in the SGP.
Robert Hanfland, Dominik Brunner, Christiane Voigt, Alina Fiehn, Anke Roiger, and Margit Pattantyús-Ábrahám
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2511–2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To show that the three-dimensional dispersion of plumes simulated by the Atmospheric Radionuclide Transport Model within the planetary boundary layer agrees with real plumes, we identify the most important input parameters and analyse the turbulence properties of five different turbulence models in very unstable stratification conditions using their deviation from the well-mixed state. Simulations show that one model agrees slightly better in unstable stratification conditions.
Bangjun Cao, Yaping Shao, Xianyu Yang, Xin Yin, and Shaofeng Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 275–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-275-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our novel scheme enhances large-eddy simulations (LESs) for atmosphere–land interactions. It couples LES subgrid closure with Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST), overcoming MOST's limitations. Validated over diverse land surfaces, our approach outperforms existing methods, aligning well with field measurements. Robustness is demonstrated across varying model resolutions. MOST's influence strengthens with decreasing grid spacing, particularly for sensible heat flux.
Gaëlle de Coëtlogon, Adrien Deroubaix, Cyrille Flamant, Laurent Menut, and Marco Gaetani
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15507–15521, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a numerical atmospheric model, we found that cooling sea surface temperatures along the southern coast of West Africa in July cause the “little dry season”. This effect reduces humidity and pollutant transport inland, potentially enhancing West Africa's synoptic and seasonal forecasting.
Dongqi Lin, Marwan Katurji, Laura E. Revell, Basit Khan, and Andrew Sturman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14451–14479, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate fog forecasting is difficult in a complex environment. Spatial variations in soil moisture could impact fog. Here, we carried out fog simulations with spatially different soil moisture in complex topography. The soil moisture was calculated using satellite observations. The results show that the spatial variations in soil moisture do not have a significant impact on where fog occurs but do impact how long fog lasts. This finding could improve fog forecasts in the future.
Shuqi Yan, Hongbin Wang, Xiaohui Liu, Fan Zu, and Duanyang Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13987–14002, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13987-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we quantitatively study the effect of the boundary layer low-level jet (BLLJ) on fast fog spatial propagation; i.e., the fog area expands very fast along a certain direction. The wind speed (10 m s−1) and direction (southeast) of the BLLJ core are consistent with fog propagation (9.6 m s−1). The BLLJ-induced temperature and moisture advections are possible reasons for fast fog propagation. The propagation speed would decrease by 6.4 m s−1 if these advections were turned off.
Miriam Saraceni, Lorenzo Silvestri, Peter Bechtold, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13883–13909, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13883-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on three medicanes, tropical-like cyclones that form in the Mediterranean Sea, studied by ensemble forecasting. This involved multiple simulations of the same event by varying initial conditions and model physics parameters, especially related to convection, which showed comparable results. It is found that medicane development is influenced by the model's ability to predict precursor events and the interaction between upper and lower atmosphere dynamics and thermodynamics.
Andrew R. Jones, Susan J. Leadbetter, and Matthew C. Hort
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12477–12503, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12477-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper explores spread and calibration properties of ensemble atmospheric dispersion forecasts for hypothetical release events. Real-time forecasts from an ensemble weather prediction system were used to generate an ensemble of dispersion predictions and assessed against simulations produced using analysis meteorology. Results demonstrate good performance overall but highlight more skilful predictions for material released in the upper air compared with releases near the surface.
Jason A. Otkin, Lee M. Cronce, Jonathan L. Case, R. Bradley Pierce, Monica Harkey, Allen Lenzen, David S. Henderson, Zac Adelman, Tsengel Nergui, and Christopher R. Hain
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7935–7954, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7935-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7935-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We performed model simulations to assess the impact of different parameterization schemes, surface initialization datasets, and analysis nudging on lower-tropospheric conditions near Lake Michigan. Simulations were run with high-resolution, real-time datasets depicting lake surface temperatures, green vegetation fraction, and soil moisture. The most accurate results were obtained when using high-resolution sea surface temperature and soil datasets to constrain the model simulations.
Mark T. Richardson, Brian H. Kahn, and Peter Kalmus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7699–7717, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection over land often triggers hours after a satellite last passed overhead and measured the state of the atmosphere, and during those hours the atmosphere can change greatly. Here we show that it is possible to reconstruct most of those changes by using weather forecast winds to predict where warm and moist air parcels will travel. The results can be used to better predict where precipitation is likely to happen in the hours after satellite measurements.
Lars Hoffmann, Paul Konopka, Jan Clemens, and Bärbel Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7589–7609, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7589-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7589-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric convection plays a key role in tracer transport in the troposphere. Global meteorological forecasts and reanalyses typically have a coarse spatiotemporal resolution that does not adequately resolve the dynamics, transport, and mixing of air associated with storm systems or deep convection. We discuss the application of the extreme convection parameterization in a Lagrangian transport model to improve simulations of tracer transport from the boundary layer into the free troposphere.
Angshuman Modak and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7535–7549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an improved estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) constrained based on the instrumental temperature record including the corrections for the pattern effect. The improved estimate factors in the uncertainty caused by the underlying sea-surface temperature datasets used in the estimates of pattern effect. This together with the inter-model spread lifts the corresponding IPCC AR6 estimate to 3.2 K [1.8 to 11.0], which is lower and better constrained than in past studies.
Xiaoyu Sun, Mathias Palm, Katrin Müller, Jonas Hachmeister, and Justus Notholt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7075–7090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7075-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The tropical western Pacific (TWP) is an active interhemispheric transport region contributing significantly to the global climate. A method to determine the chemical equator was developed by model simulations of a virtual passive tracer to analyze transport in the tropics, with a focus on the TWP region. We compare the chemical equator with tropical rain belts and wind fields and obtain a vertical pattern of interhemispheric transport processes which shows tilt structure in certain seasons.
Andrew E. Schuh and Andrew R. Jacobson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6285–6297, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6285-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6285-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A comparison of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations resulting from two different atmospheric transport models showed large differences in predicted concentrations with significant space–time correlations. The vertical mixing of long-lived trace gases by convection was determined to be the main driver of these differences. The resulting uncertainty was deemed significant to the application of using atmospheric gradients of carbon dioxide to estimate surface fluxes of carbon dioxide.
Qike Yang, Xiaoqing Wu, Xiaodan Hu, Zhiyuan Wang, Chun Qing, Tao Luo, Pengfei Wu, Xianmei Qian, and Yiming Guo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6339–6355, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6339-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6339-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The AMPS-forecasted Richardson number was first comprehensively validated over the Antarctic continent. Some potential underlying reasons for the discrepancies between the forecasts and observations were analyzed. The underlying physical processes of triggering atmospheric turbulence in Antarctica were investigated. Our results suggest that the estimated Richardson number by the AMPS is reasonable and the turbulence conditions in Antarctica are well revealed.
Edward Groot and Holger Tost
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6065–6081, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is shown that the outflow from cumulonimbus clouds or thunderstorms in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in idealized high-resolution simulations (LESs) depends linearly on the net amount of latent heat released by the cloud for fixed geometry of the clouds. However, it is shown that, in more realistic situations, convective organization and aggregation (collecting mechanisms of cumulonimbus clouds) affect the amount of outflow non-linearly through non-idealized geometry.
Zixuan Jia, Carlos Ordóñez, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Steven T. Turnock, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2829–2842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2829-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2829-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the influence of the winter large-scale circulation on daily concentrations of PM2.5 and their sensitivity to emissions. The new proposed circulation index can effectively distinguish different levels of air pollution and explain changes in PM2.5 sensitivity to emissions from local and surrounding regions. We then project future changes in PM2.5 concentrations using this index and find an increase in PM2.5 concentrations over the region due to climate change.
Chao Lin, Yunyi Wang, Ryozo Ooka, Cédric Flageul, Youngseob Kim, Hideki Kikumoto, Zhizhao Wang, and Karine Sartelet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1421–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1421-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1421-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, SSH-aerosol, a modular box model that simulates the evolution of gas, primary, and secondary aerosols, is coupled with the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software, OpenFOAM and Code_Saturne. The transient dispersion of pollutants emitted from traffic in a street canyon of Greater Paris is simulated. The coupled model achieved better agreement in NO2 and PM10 with measurement data than the conventional CFD simulation which regards pollutants as passive scalars.
Johannes Mikkola, Victoria A. Sinclair, Marja Bister, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 821–842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Local winds in four valleys located in the Nepal Himalayas are studied by means of high-resolution meteorological modelling. Well-defined daytime up-valley winds are simulated in all of the valleys with some variation in the flow depth and strength among the valleys and their parts. Parts of the valleys with a steep valley floor inclination (2–5°) are associated with weaker and shallower daytime up-valley winds compared with the parts that have nearly flat valley floors (< 1°).
Edward Groot and Holger Tost
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 565–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-565-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-565-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Thunderstorm systems play an important role in the dynamics of the Earth’s atmosphere, and some of them form a well-organised line: squall lines. Simulations of such squall lines with very small initial perturbations are compared to a reference simulation. The evolution of perturbations and processes amplifying them are analysed. It is shown that the formation of new secondary thunderstorm cells (after the initial primary cells) directly ahead of the line affects the spread strongly.
Matthias Nützel, Sabine Brinkop, Martin Dameris, Hella Garny, Patrick Jöckel, Laura L. Pan, and Mijeong Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15659–15683, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15659-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
During the Asian summer monsoon season, a large high-pressure system is present at levels close to the tropopause above Asia. We analyse how air masses are transported from surface levels to this high-pressure system, which shows distinct features from the surrounding air masses. To this end, we employ multiannual data from two complementary models that allow us to analyse the climatology as well as the interannual and intraseasonal variability of these transport pathways.
Alice Crawford, Tianfeng Chai, Binyu Wang, Allison Ring, Barbara Stunder, Christopher P. Loughner, Michael Pavolonis, and Justin Sieglaff
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13967–13996, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13967-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13967-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study describes the development of a workflow which produces probabilistic and quantitative forecasts of volcanic ash in the atmosphere. The workflow includes methods of incorporating satellite observations of the ash cloud into a modeling framework as well as verification statistics that can be used to guide further model development and provide information for risk-based approaches to flight planning.
Alessandro Carlo Maria Savazzi, Louise Nuijens, Irina Sandu, Geet George, and Peter Bechtold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13049–13066, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13049-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13049-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Winds are of great importance for the transport of energy and moisture in the atmosphere. In this study we use measurements from the EUREC4A field campaign and several model experiments to understand the wind bias in the forecasts produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We are able to link the model errors to heights above 2 km and to the representation of the diurnal cycle of winds: the model makes the winds too slow in the morning and too strong in the evening.
Ivo Neefjes, Roope Halonen, Hanna Vehkamäki, and Bernhard Reischl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11155–11172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11155-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11155-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Collisions between ionic and dipolar molecules and clusters facilitate the formation of atmospheric aerosol particles, which affect global climate and air quality. We compared often-used classical approaches for calculating ion–dipole collision rates with robust atomistic computer simulations. While classical approaches work for simple ions and dipoles only, our modeling approach can also efficiently calculate reasonable collision properties for more complex systems.
Alice Maison, Cédric Flageul, Bertrand Carissimo, Yunyi Wang, Andrée Tuzet, and Karine Sartelet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9369–9388, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9369-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9369-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a parameterization of the tree crown effect on air flow and pollutant dispersion in a street network model used to simulate air quality at the street level. The new parameterization is built using a finer-scale model (computational fluid dynamics). The tree effect increases with the leaf area index and the crown volume fraction of the trees; the street horizontal velocity is reduced by up to 68 % and the vertical transfer into or out of the street by up to 23 %.
Natalie J. Harvey, Helen F. Dacre, Cameron Saint, Andrew T. Prata, Helen N. Webster, and Roy G. Grainger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8529–8545, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8529-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8529-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the event of a volcanic eruption, airlines need to make decisions about which routes are safe to operate and ensure that airborne aircraft land safely. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the application of a statistical technique that best combines ash information from satellites and a suite of computer forecasts of ash concentration to provide a range of plausible estimates of how much volcanic ash emitted from a volcano is available to undergo long-range transport.
Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Laurent Labbouz, Cyrille Flamant, and Alma Hodzic
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8639–8658, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8639-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8639-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ground-based, spaceborne and rare airborne observations of biomass burning aerosols (BBAs) during the AEROCLO-sA field campaign in 2017 are complemented with convection-permitting simulations with online trajectories. The results show that the radiative effect of the BBA accelerates the southern African easterly jet and generates upward motions that transport the BBAs to higher altitudes and farther southwest.
Annika Drews, Wenjuan Huo, Katja Matthes, Kunihiko Kodera, and Tim Kruschke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7893–7904, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Solar irradiance varies with a period of approximately 11 years. Using a unique large chemistry–climate model dataset, we investigate the solar surface signal in the North Atlantic and European region and find that it changes over time, depending on the strength of the solar cycle. For the first time, we estimate the potential predictability associated with including realistic solar forcing in a model. These results may improve seasonal to decadal predictions of European climate.
Shipra Jain, Ruth M. Doherty, David Sexton, Steven Turnock, Chaofan Li, Zixuan Jia, Zongbo Shi, and Lin Pei
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7443–7460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7443-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7443-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a range of future projections of winter haze and clear conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) using multiple simulations from a climate model for the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). The frequency of haze conducive weather is likely to increase whereas the frequency of clear weather is likely to decrease in future. The total number of hazy days for a given winter can be as much as ˜3.5 times higher than the number of clear days over the NCP.
Antonio Capponi, Natalie J. Harvey, Helen F. Dacre, Keith Beven, Cameron Saint, Cathie Wells, and Mike R. James
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6115–6134, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts of the dispersal of volcanic ash in the atmosphere are hampered by uncertainties in parameters describing the characteristics of volcanic plumes. Uncertainty quantification is vital for making robust flight-planning decisions. We present a method using satellite data to refine a series of volcanic ash dispersion forecasts and quantify these uncertainties. We show how we can improve forecast accuracy and potentially reduce the regions of high risk of volcanic ash relevant to aviation.
Piyush Srivastava, Ian M. Brooks, John Prytherch, Dominic J. Salisbury, Andrew D. Elvidge, Ian A. Renfrew, and Margaret J. Yelland
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4763–4778, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4763-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4763-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The parameterization of surface turbulent fluxes over sea ice remains a weak point in weather forecast and climate models. Recent theoretical developments have introduced more extensive physics but these descriptions are poorly constrained due to a lack of observation data. Here we utilize a large dataset of measurements of turbulent fluxes over sea ice to tune the state-of-the-art parameterization of wind stress, and compare it with a previous scheme.
Yiqing Liu, Zhiwen Luo, and Sue Grimmond
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4721–4735, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4721-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic heat emission from buildings is important for atmospheric modelling in cities. The current building anthropogenic heat flux is simplified by building energy consumption. Our research proposes a novel approach to determine ‘real’ building anthropogenic heat emission from the changes in energy balance fluxes between occupied and unoccupied buildings. We hope to provide new insights into future parameterisations of building anthropogenic heat flux in urban climate models.
Lars Hoffmann and Reinhold Spang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4019–4046, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4019-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present an intercomparison of 2009–2018 lapse rate tropopause characteristics as derived from ECMWF's ERA5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. Large-scale features are similar, but ERA5 shows notably larger variability, which we mainly attribute to UTLS temperature fluctuations due to gravity waves being better resolved by ECMWF's IFS forecast model. Following evaluation with radiosondes and GPS data, we conclude ERA5 will be a more suitable asset for tropopause-related studies in future work.
Linye Song, Shangfeng Chen, Wen Chen, Jianping Guo, Conglan Cheng, and Yong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1669–1688, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1669-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1669-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that in most years when haze pollution (HP) over the North China Plain (NCP) is more (less) serious in winter, air conditions in the following spring are also worse (better) than normal. Conversely, there are some years when HP in the following spring is opposed to that in winter. It is found that North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies play important roles in HP evolution over the NCP. Thus North Atlantic SST is an important preceding signal for NCP HP evolution.
Anna A. Shestakova, Dmitry G. Chechin, Christof Lüpkes, Jörg Hartmann, and Marion Maturilli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1529–1548, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1529-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1529-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the easterly orographic wind episode which occurred over Svalbard on 30–31 May 2017. This wind caused a significant temperature rise on the lee side of the mountains and greatly intensified the snowmelt. This episode was investigated on the basis of measurements collected during the ACLOUD/PASCAL field campaigns with the help of numerical modeling.
Xiadong An, Lifang Sheng, Chun Li, Wen Chen, Yulian Tang, and Jingliang Huangfu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 725–738, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-725-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The North China Plain (NCP) suffered many periods of haze in winter during 1985–2015, related to the rainfall-induced diabatic heating over southern China. The haze over the NCP is modulated by an anomalous anticyclone caused by the Rossby wave and a north–south circulation (NSC) induced mainly by diabatic heating. As a Rossby wave source, rainfall-induced diabatic heating supports waves and finally strengthens the anticyclone over the NCP. These changes favor haze over the NCP.
Chenrui Diao, Yangyang Xu, and Shang-Ping Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18499–18518, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18499-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18499-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic aerosol (AA) emission has shown a zonal redistribution since the 1980s, with a decline in the Western Hemisphere (WH) high latitudes and an increase in the Eastern Hemisphere (EH) low latitudes. This study compares the role of zonally asymmetric forcings affecting the climate. The WH aerosol reduction dominates the poleward shift of the Hadley cell and the North Pacific warming, while the EH AA forcing is largely confined to the emission domain and induces local cooling responses.
Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Heidi Huntrieser, Sergio Soler, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Nicolau Pineda, Javier Navarro-González, Víctor Reglero, Joan Montanyà, Oscar van der Velde, and Nikos Koutsias
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17529–17557, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17529-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning-ignited fires tend to occur in remote areas and can spread significantly before suppression. Long continuing current (LCC) lightning, preferably taking place in dry thunderstorms, is believed to be the main precursor of lightning-ignited fires. We analyze fire databases of lightning-ignited fires in the Mediterranean basin and report the shared meteorological conditions of fire- and LCC-lightning-producing thunderstorms. These results can be useful to improve fire forecasting methods.
Diego Aliaga, Victoria A. Sinclair, Marcos Andrade, Paulo Artaxo, Samara Carbone, Evgeny Kadantsev, Paolo Laj, Alfred Wiedensohler, Radovan Krejci, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16453–16477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16453-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the origin of air masses sampled at Mount Chacaltaya, Bolivia. Three-quarters of the measured air has not been influenced by the surface in the previous 4 d. However, it is rare that, at any given time, the sampled air has not been influenced at all by the surface, and often the sampled air has multiple origins. The influence of the surface is more prevalent during day than night. Furthermore, during the 6-month study, one-third of the air masses originated from Amazonia.
Michael Biggart, Jenny Stocker, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, David Carruthers, Sue Grimmond, Yiqun Han, Pingqing Fu, and Simone Kotthaus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13687–13711, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13687-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13687-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Heat-related illnesses are of increasing concern in China given its rapid urbanisation and our ever-warming climate. We examine the relative impacts that land surface properties and anthropogenic heat have on the urban heat island (UHI) in Beijing using ADMS-Urban. Air temperature measurements and satellite-derived land surface temperatures provide valuable means of evaluating modelled spatiotemporal variations. This work provides critical information for urban planners and UHI mitigation.
Cited articles
Balkema, A. A. and de Hann, L.: Residual lifetime at great age, Annals of Prob., 2, 792–804, 1974.
Beniston, M.: The 2003 heat wave in Europe: a shape of things to come?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L02202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018857, 2004.
Beniston, M., Stephenson, D. B., Christensen, O. B., Ferro, C. A. T., Frei, C., Goyette, S., Halsnaes, K., Holt, T., Jylha, K., Kofli, B., Palutikof, J., Scholl, R., Semmler, T., and Woth, K.: Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections, Climatic Change 81, 71–95, 2007.
Christensen, O. B., Drews, M., Christensen, J. H., Dethloff, K., Ketelsen, K., Hebestadt, I., and Rinke, A.: The HIRHAM Regional Climate Model Version 5 ($\beta )$, Tech Rep 06-17, ISSN 1399-1388, DMI, Copenhagen, 2006.
Coles, S.: An introduction to statistical modelling of extreme values, Springer, London, 208 pp., 2001.
Della-Marta, P. M., Mathis, H., Frei, C., Liniger, M., Kleinn, J., and Appenzeller, C.: The return period of wind storms over Europe, Int. J. Climatol., 29, 437–459, 2009.
Donat, M. G., Leckebusch, G. C., Wild, S., and Ulbrich, U.: Future changes in European winter storm losses and extreme wind speeds inferred from GCM and RCM multi-model simulations, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1351–1370, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1351-2011, 2011a.
Donat, M. G., Renggli, D., Wild, S., Alexander, L. V., Leckebusch, G. C., and Ulbrich, U.: Reanalysis suggests long-term upward trends in European storminess since 1871, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047995, 2011b.
Fisher, R. A. and Tippett, L. H. C.: Limiting forms of the frequency distribution of the largest or smallest member of a sample, P. Camb. Philos. Soc., 24, 180–190, 1928.
Foley, A. M.: Uncertainty in regional climate modelling: A review, Prog. Phys. Geo., 34, 647–670, 2010.
Furevik, T., Bentesen, M., Drange, H., Kindem, I. K. T., and Kvamstø, N. G., and Sorteberg, A.: Description and evaluation of the Bergen climate model: ARPEGE coupled with MICOM, Clim. Dynam. 21, 27–51, 2003.
Grumm, R. H.: The central European and Russian heat event of July-August 2010, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 1285–1296, 2011.
Gumbel, E. J.: Statistics of Extremes, Columbia University Press, New York, 1958.
Höglund, A., Meier, H. E. M., Broman, M., and Kriezi, E.: Validation and correction of regionalised ERA-40 wind fields over the Baltic Sea using the Rossby Centre Atmosphere model RCA3.0, Oceanographi. 97, SMHI, Stockholm, 2009.
Jones, R. N.: Managing uncertainty in climate change projections – Issues for impact assessment – An editorial comment, Climatic Change, 45, 403–419, 2000.
Kharin, V. V., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X., and Hegerl, G. C.,: Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations, J. Climate, 20, 1419–1444, 2007.
Koh, T.-Y., Djamil, Y. S., and Teo, C.-K.: Statistical dynamics of tropical wind in radiosonde data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4177–4189, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4177-2011, 2011.
Kunz, M., Mohr, S., Rauthe, M., Lux, R., and Kottmeier, Ch.: Assessment of extreme wind speeds from Regional Climate Models – Part 1: Estimation of return values and their evaluation, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 907–922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-907-2010, 2010.
Lagarias, J. C., Reeds, J. A., Wright, M. H., and Wright, P. E.: Convergence Properties of the Nelder-Mead Simplex Method in Low Dimensions, SIAM J. Optimiz., 9, 112–147, 1998.
Larsen, X. G. and Mann J.: The effects of disjunct sampling and averaging time on maximum mean wind speeds, J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerod., 94, 581–602, 2006.
Lun, I. Y. F. and Lam, J. C.: A study of Weibull parameters using long-term wind observations, Renew. Energ., 20, 145–153, 2000.
Marsland, S. J., Haak, H., Jungclaus, J. H., Latif, M., and Röske, F.: The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates, Ocean Model. 5, 91–127, 2003.
Munich Re: Topics GEO, Natural catastrophes 2011 analyses assessments positions, Munich Reinsurance Company Publications, Munich, 49 pp., 2011.
Naess, A. and Gaidai, O.: Estimation of extreme values from sampled time series, Struct. Saf., 31, 325–334, 2009.
Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R. (Eds.): IPCC 2000, Emission Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, UK, 570 pp., 2000.
Nikulin, G., Kjellström, E., Hansson, U., Strandberg, G., and Ullerstig, A.: Evaluation and future projections of temperature, precipitation and wind extremes over Europe in an ensemble of regional climate simulations, Tellus A, 63, 41–55, 2011.
Outten, S. D., Renfrew, I. A., and Petersen G. N.: An easterly tip jet off Cape Farewell, Greenland. Part II: simulations and dynamics, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 1934–1949, 2009.
Palutikof, J. P., Brabson, B. B., Lister D. H., and Adcock, S. T.: A review of methods to calculate extreme wind speeds, Meteorol. Appl., 6, 119–132, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482799001103, 1999.
Perrin, O., Rootzen, H., and Taesler, R.: A discussion of statistical methods used to estimate extreme wind speeds, Theor. Appl. Climatol. 85, 203–215, 2006.
Pickands, J.: Statistical inference using extreme order statistics, Ann. Stat., 3, 119–131, 1975.
Pryor, S. C., Barthelmie, R. J., Clausen, N. E., Drews, M., MacKellar, N., and Kjellström, E.: Analyses of possible changes in intense and extreme wind speeds over Northern Europe under climate change scenarios, Clim. Dynam. 38, 189–208, 2012a.
Pryor, S. C., Nikulin, G., and Jones, C.: Influence of sptial resolution on regional climate model derived wind climates, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D03117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016822, 2012b.
Quine, C. P.: Estimation of mean wind climate and probability of strong winds for wind risk assessment, Forestry, 73, 247–258, 2000.
Renfrew, I. A., Outten, S. D., and Moore, G. W. K.: An easterly tip jet off Cape Farewell, Greenland. Part I: Aircraft observations, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 1919–1933, 2009.
Robine, J. M., Cheung, S. L. K., Sophie, L. R., Oyen, H. V., Griffiths, C., Michel, J. P., and Hermann, F. R.: Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003, C. R. Biol., 331, 171–178, 2008.
Rockel, B. and Woth, K.: Extremes of near-surface wind speed over Europe and their future changes as estimated from an ensemble of RCM simulations, Climatic Change, 81, 267–280, 2007.
Roeckner, E., Bäuml, G., Bonaventura, L., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kirchner, I., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Rhodin, A., Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U., and Tompkins, A.: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. Part I: Model description, MPI-Report, 349, 1–127, 2003.
Rummukainen, M.: State-of-the-art with regional climate models, Wiley Interdisciplinary Rev., Climatic Change, 1, 82–96, 2010.
Samuelsson, P., Jones, C., Willén, U., Gollvik, S., Hansson, U., Kjellström, E., Nikulin, G., Ullerstig, A., and Wyser, K.: The Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3: model description and performance, Tellus A, 63, 4–23, https://doi.org/10.1111/j/1600-0870.2010.00478.x, 2011.
Schwierz, C., Kollner-Heck, P., Mutter, E., Bresch, D., Vidale, P., Wild, M., and Schär, C.: Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate, Climatic Change 101, 485–514, 2010.
Smith, R. B.: Synoptic observations and theory of orographically disturbed wind and pressure, J. Atmos. Sci. 39, 60–70, 1982.
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L. (Eds.): Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp., 2007.
Van de Vyver, H. and Delcloo, A. W.: Stable estimations for extreme wind speeds. An application to Belgium, Theor. Appl. Climatol. 105, 417–429, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0365-9, 2011.
Van den Eynde, D., De Sutter, R., and Haerens, P.: Evolution of marine storminess in the Belgian part of the North Sea, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 305–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-305-2012, 2012.
van der Linden, P. and Mitchell, J. F. B. (Eds.): ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and its Impacts: Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project, Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK, 160 pp., 2009.
Wang, X. L., Wan, H., Zwiers, F. W., Swail, V. R., Compo, G. P., Allan, R. J., Vose, R. S., Jourdain, S., and Yin, X.: Trends and low-frequency variability of storminess over western Europe 1878–2007, Clim. Dynam. 37, 2355–2371, 2011.
WMO: Cold spell in Europe and Asia in late winter 2011/2012 2012, https://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/news/documents/dwd_2012_report.pdf, (last access: 10 January 2013), 2012.
Zwiers, F. W. and V. Kharin V. V.: Changes in the extremes of the climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO2 doubling, J. Climate, 11, 2200–2222, 1998.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint