Articles | Volume 18, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4597-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4597-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Apr 2018
Research article |
| 05 Apr 2018
Nonlinear response of tropical lower-stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO
Chaim I. Garfinkel
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Amit Gordon
The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Luke D. Oman
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Feng Li
Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, USA
Sean Davis
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Steven Pawson
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 977–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, 2022
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Forecast models that are used to predict weather often struggle to represent the Earth’s stratosphere. This may impact their ability to predict surface weather weeks in advance, on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. We use data from many S2S forecast systems to characterize and compare the stratospheric biases present in such forecast models. These models have many similar stratospheric biases, but they tend to be worse in systems with low model tops located within the stratosphere.
Peter Hitchcock, Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Tim Stockdale, James Anstey, Dann Mitchell, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Daniele Mastrangelo, Piero Malguzzi, Hai Lin, Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield, Michael Sigmond, Baoqiang Xiang, Liwei Jia, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Jiyoung Oh, Damien Specq, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Cory Barton, Jeff Knight, Eun-Pa Lim, and Harry Hendon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5073–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, 2022
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This paper describes an experimental protocol focused on sudden stratospheric warmings to be carried out by subseasonal forecast modeling centers. These will allow for inter-model comparisons of these major disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex and their impacts on the near-surface flow. The protocol will lead to new insights into the contribution of the stratosphere to subseasonal forecast skill and new approaches to the dynamical attribution of extreme events.
Chen Schwartz, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Priyanka Yadav, Wen Chen, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 679–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-679-2022, 2022
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Eleven operational forecast models that run on subseasonal timescales (up to 2 months) are examined to assess errors in their simulated large-scale stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere winter. We found that models with a more finely resolved stratosphere generally do better in simulating the waves in both the stratosphere (10–50 km) and troposphere below. Moreover, a connection exists between errors in simulated time-mean convection in tropical regions and errors in the simulated waves.
Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Sean Davis, and Antara Banerjee
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Adam A. Scaife, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun-Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok-Woo Son, and David W. J. Thompson
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Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate, and here we review its role in long-range predictions and projections from weeks to decades ahead.
Jerald R. Ziemke, Gordon J. Labow, Natalya A. Kramarova, Richard D. McPeters, Pawan K. Bhartia, Luke D. Oman, Stacey M. Frith, and David P. Haffner
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Seasonal and interannual ozone profile climatologies are produced from combined MLS and MERRA-2 GMI ozone for the general public. Both climatologies extend from pole to pole at altitudes of 0–80 km (1 km spacing) for the time record from 1970 to 2018. These climatologies are important for use as a priori information in satellite ozone retrieval algorithms, as validation of other measured and model-simulated ozone, and in radiative transfer studies of the atmosphere.
Sampa Das, Peter R. Colarco, Luke D. Oman, Ghassan Taha, and Omar Torres
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12069–12090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12069-2021, 2021
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Interactions of extreme fires with weather systems can produce towering smoke plumes that inject aerosols at very high altitudes (> 10 km). Three such major injections, largest at the time in terms of emitted aerosol mass, took place over British Columbia, Canada, in August 2017. We model the transport and impacts of injected aerosols on the radiation balance of the atmosphere. Our model results match the satellite-observed plume transport and residence time at these high altitudes very closely.
Lars E. Kalnajs, Sean M. Davis, J. Douglas Goetz, Terry Deshler, Sergey Khaykin, Alex St. Clair, Albert Hertzog, Jerome Bordereau, and Alexey Lykov
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 2635–2648, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-2635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-2635-2021, 2021
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This work introduces a novel instrument system for high-resolution atmospheric profiling, which lowers and retracts a suspended instrument package beneath drifting long-duration balloons. During a 100 d circumtropical flight, the instrument collected over a hundred 2 km profiles of temperature, water vapor, clouds, and aerosol at 1 m resolution, yielding unprecedented geographic sampling and vertical resolution measurements of the tropical tropopause layer.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
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Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ohad Harari, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Jian Rao, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Fiona M. O'Connor, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3725–3740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and El Niño is the dominant mode of variability in the ocean–atmosphere system. The connection between El Niño and water vapor above ~ 17 km is unclear, with single-model studies reaching a range of conclusions. This study examines this connection in 12 different models. While there are substantial differences among the models, all models appear to capture the fundamental physical processes correctly.
Youhua Tang, Huisheng Bian, Zhining Tao, Luke D. Oman, Daniel Tong, Pius Lee, Patrick C. Campbell, Barry Baker, Cheng-Hsuan Lu, Li Pan, Jun Wang, Jeffery McQueen, and Ivanka Stajner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2527–2550, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2527-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2527-2021, 2021
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Chemical lateral boundary condition (CLBC) impact is essential for regional air quality prediction during intrusion events. We present a model mapping Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) to Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) CB05–AERO6 (Carbon Bond 5; version 6 of the aerosol module) species. Influence depends on distance from the inflow boundary and species and their regional characteristics. We use aerosol optical thickness to derive CLBCs, achieving reasonable prediction.
Stephanie Evan, Jerome Brioude, Karen Rosenlof, Sean M. Davis, Holger Vömel, Damien Héron, Françoise Posny, Jean-Marc Metzger, Valentin Duflot, Guillaume Payen, Hélène Vérèmes, Philippe Keckhut, and Jean-Pierre Cammas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10565–10586, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10565-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10565-2020, 2020
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The role of deep convection in the southwest Indian Ocean (the 3rd most active tropical cyclone basin) on the composition of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) and the climate system is less understood due to scarce observations. Balloon-borne lidar and satellite measurements in the southwest Indian Ocean were used to study tropical cyclones' influence on TTL composition. This study compares the impact of a tropical storm and cyclone on the humidification of the TTL over the SW Indian Ocean.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Vincenzo Rizi, Marco Iarlori, Irene Cionni, Ilaria Quaglia, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando Garcia, Patrick Joeckel, Douglas Kinnison, Jean-François Lamarque, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Tatsuya Nagashima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David Plummer, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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In this work we analyse the trend in ozone profiles taken at L'Aquila (Italy, 42.4° N) for seventeen years, between 2000 and 2016 and compare them against already available measured ozone trends. We try to understand and explain the observed trends at various heights in light of the simulations from seventeen different model, highlighting the contribution of changes in circulation and chemical ozone loss during this time period.
Monika E. Szeląg, Viktoria F. Sofieva, Doug Degenstein, Chris Roth, Sean Davis, and Lucien Froidevaux
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7035–7047, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7035-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7035-2020, 2020
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We analyze seasonal dependence of stratospheric ozone trends over 2000–2018. We demonstrate that the mid-latitude upper stratospheric ozone recovery maximizes during local winters and equinoxes. In the tropics, a very strong seasonal dependence of ozone trends is observed at all altitudes. We found hemispheric asymmetry of summertime ozone trend patterns below 35 km. The seasonal dependence of ozone trends and stratospheric temperature trends shows a clear inter-relation of the trend patterns.
Marta Abalos, Clara Orbe, Douglas E. Kinnison, David Plummer, Luke D. Oman, Patrick Jöckel, Olaf Morgenstern, Rolando R. Garcia, Guang Zeng, Kane A. Stone, and Martin Dameris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6883–6901, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020, 2020
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A set of state-of-the art chemistry–climate models is used to examine future changes in downward transport from the stratosphere, a key contributor to tropospheric ozone. The acceleration of the stratospheric circulation results in increased stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. In the subtropics, downward advection into the troposphere is enhanced due to climate change. At higher latitudes, the ozone reservoir above the tropopause is enlarged due to the stronger circulation and ozone recovery.
Junhua Liu, Jose M. Rodriguez, Luke D. Oman, Anne R. Douglass, Mark A. Olsen, and Lu Hu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6417–6433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6417-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6417-2020, 2020
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Our paper quantifies and identifies the importance of stratospheric ozone influence on the tropospheric ozone IAV in Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitudes. Our analysis provides an in-depth understanding of how 3-D dynamics influences the O3 redistribution in the troposphere. These findings are particularly important considering the potential changes in these dynamical conditions in the future as a result of climate change
Stacey M. Frith, Pawan K. Bhartia, Luke D. Oman, Natalya A. Kramarova, Richard D. McPeters, and Gordon J. Labow
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 2733–2749, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2733-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2733-2020, 2020
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We use the NASA GEOS-GMI chemistry climate model to construct a climatology of stratospheric ozone diurnal variations as a function of latitude, pressure and month, which can be used in a variety of data analysis tasks involving ozone observations made at different times of the day. The climatology compares well with previous modeling simulations and available observations, and to the authors' knowledge is the first characterization of the diurnal cycle available for general ozone data analyses.
Kevin M. Grise and Sean M. Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5249–5268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5249-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5249-2020, 2020
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As Earth's climate warms, the tropical overturning circulation (Hadley circulation) is projected to expand, potentially pushing subtropical dry zones further poleward. This study examines projections of the Hadley circulation from the latest generation of computer models and finds several notable differences from older models. For example, the Northern Hemisphere circulation has expanded northward at a greater rate in recent decades than would be expected from increasing greenhouse gases alone.
Nicholas A. Davis, Sean M. Davis, Robert W. Portmann, Eric Ray, Karen H. Rosenlof, and Pengfei Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 717–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-717-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-717-2020, 2020
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Large-scale waves drive upward motion in the tropical stratosphere, with major impacts on stratospheric chemistry and climate. However, some of the modeling methods which attempt to simulate the past evolution of the stratosphere do not seem to be able to recreate important trends. We believe this is due to disagreements between the basic climate of the model and observations, but if the method is constructed more carefully, the disagreement becomes smaller and the trends become more realistic.
Julie M. Nicely, Bryan N. Duncan, Thomas F. Hanisco, Glenn M. Wolfe, Ross J. Salawitch, Makoto Deushi, Amund S. Haslerud, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas E. Kinnison, Andrew Klekociuk, Michael E. Manyin, Virginie Marécal, Olaf Morgenstern, Lee T. Murray, Gunnar Myhre, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, Andrea Pozzer, Ilaria Quaglia, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Susan Strahan, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Daniel M. Westervelt, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1341–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, 2020
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Differences in methane lifetime among global models are large and poorly understood. We use a neural network method and simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative to quantify the factors influencing methane lifetime spread among models and variations over time. UV photolysis, tropospheric ozone, and nitrogen oxides drive large model differences, while the same factors plus specific humidity contribute to a decreasing trend in methane lifetime between 1980 and 2015.
Susann Tegtmeier, James Anstey, Sean Davis, Rossana Dragani, Yayoi Harada, Ioana Ivanciu, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Kirstin Krüger, Bernard Legras, Craig Long, James S. Wang, Krzysztof Wargan, and Jonathon S. Wright
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 753–770, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-753-2020, 2020
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The tropical tropopause layer is an important atmospheric region right in between the troposphere and the stratosphere. We evaluate the representation of this layer in reanalyses data sets, which create a complete picture of the state of Earth's atmosphere using atmospheric modeling and available observations. The recent reanalyses show realistic temperatures in the tropical tropopause layer. However, where the temperature is lowest, the so-called cold point, the reanalyses are too cold.
Le Kuai, Kevin W. Bowman, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Makoto Deushi, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Fabien Paulot, Sarah Strode, Andrew Conley, Jean-François Lamarque, Patrick Jöckel, David A. Plummer, Luke D. Oman, Helen Worden, Susan Kulawik, David Paynter, Andrea Stenke, and Markus Kunze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 281–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-281-2020, 2020
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The tropospheric ozone increase from pre-industrial to the present day leads to a radiative forcing. The top-of-atmosphere outgoing fluxes at the ozone band are controlled by ozone, water vapor, and temperature. We demonstrate a method to attribute the models’ flux biases to these key players using satellite-constrained instantaneous radiative kernels. The largest spread between models is found in the tropics, mainly driven by ozone and then water vapor.
William T. Ball, Justin Alsing, Johannes Staehelin, Sean M. Davis, Lucien Froidevaux, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12731–12748, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12731-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12731-2019, 2019
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We analyse long-term stratospheric ozone (60° S–60° N) trends over the 1985–2018 period. Previous work has suggested that lower stratosphere ozone declined over 1998–2016. We demonstrate that a large ozone upsurge in 2017 is likely related to QBO variability, but that lower stratospheric ozone trends likely remain lower in 2018 than in 1998. Tropical stratospheric ozone (30° S–30° N) shows highly probable decreases in both the lower stratosphere and in the integrated stratospheric ozone layer.
Kévin Lamy, Thierry Portafaix, Béatrice Josse, Colette Brogniez, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Hassan Bencherif, Laura Revell, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Ben Liley, Virginie Marecal, Olaf Morgenstern, Andrea Stenke, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Neil Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Glauco Di Genova, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rong-Ming Hu, Douglas Kinnison, Michael Kotkamp, Richard McKenzie, Martine Michou, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10087–10110, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, 2019
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In this study, we simulate the ultraviolet radiation evolution during the 21st century on Earth's surface using the output from several numerical models which participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative. We present four possible futures which depend on greenhouse gases emissions. The role of ozone-depleting substances, greenhouse gases and aerosols are investigated. Our results emphasize the important role of aerosols for future ultraviolet radiation in the Northern Hemisphere.
Ohad Harari, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9253–9268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019, 2019
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Ozone depletion in the Antarctic has been shown to influence surface conditions, but the effects of ozone depletion in the Arctic on surface climate are unclear. We show that Arctic ozone does influence surface climate in both polar regions and tropical regions, though the proximate cause of these surface impacts is not yet clear.
Jerry R. Ziemke, Luke D. Oman, Sarah A. Strode, Anne R. Douglass, Mark A. Olsen, Richard D. McPeters, Pawan K. Bhartia, Lucien Froidevaux, Gordon J. Labow, Jacquie C. Witte, Anne M. Thompson, David P. Haffner, Natalya A. Kramarova, Stacey M. Frith, Liang-Kang Huang, Glen R. Jaross, Colin J. Seftor, Mathew T. Deland, and Steven L. Taylor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3257–3269, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3257-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3257-2019, 2019
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Both a 38-year merged satellite record of tropospheric ozone from TOMS/OMI/MLS/OMPS and a MERRA-2 GMI model simulation show large increases of 6–7 Dobson units from the Near East to India–East Asia and eastward over the Pacific. These increases in tropospheric ozone are attributed to increases in pollution over the region over the last several decades. Secondary 38-year increases of 4–5 Dobson units with both GMI model and satellite measurements occur over central African–tropical Atlantic.
Roland Eichinger, Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Petr Šácha, Thomas Birner, Harald Bönisch, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Eugene Rozanov, Laura Revell, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 921–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, 2019
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To shed more light upon the changes in stratospheric circulation in the 21st century, climate projection simulations of 10 state-of-the-art global climate models, spanning from 1960 to 2100, are analyzed. The study shows that in addition to changes in transport, mixing also plays an important role in stratospheric circulation and that the properties of mixing vary over time. Furthermore, the influence of mixing is quantified and a dynamical framework is provided to understand the changes.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Fiona Tummon, Aryeh Feinberg, Eugene Rozanov, Thomas Peter, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Robyn Schofield, Kane Stone, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16155–16172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, 2018
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Global models such as those participating in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) consistently simulate biases in tropospheric ozone compared with observations. We performed an advanced statistical analysis with one of the CCMI models to understand the cause of the bias. We found that emissions of ozone precursor gases are the dominant driver of the bias, implying either that the emissions are too large, or that the way in which the model handles emissions needs to be improved.
Ori Adam, Kevin M. Grise, Paul Staten, Isla R. Simpson, Sean M. Davis, Nicholas A. Davis, Darryn W. Waugh, Thomas Birner, and Alison Ming
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4339–4357, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4339-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4339-2018, 2018
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Due to incoherent methodologies, estimates of tropical width variations differ significantly across studies. Here, methods for eight commonly-used metrics of the tropical width are implemented in the Tropical-width Diagnostics (TropD) code package. The method compilation and analysis provide tools and information which help reduce the methodological component of the uncertainty associated with calculations of the tropical width.
Birgit Hassler, Stefanie Kremser, Greg E. Bodeker, Jared Lewis, Kage Nesbit, Sean M. Davis, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip S. Dhomse, and Martin Dameris
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1473–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1473-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1473-2018, 2018
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Ulrike Langematz, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Steven C. Hardiman, Patrick Jöckel, Andrew Klekociuk, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11277–11287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, 2018
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Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are natural major disruptions of the polar stratospheric circulation that also affect surface weather. In the literature there are conflicting claims as to whether SSWs will change in the future. The confusion comes from studies using different models and methods. Here we settle the question by analysing 12 models with a consistent methodology, to show that no robust changes in frequency and other features are expected over the 21st century.
Sandip S. Dhomse, Douglas Kinnison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Ross J. Salawitch, Irene Cionni, Michaela I. Hegglin, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alex T. Archibald, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Peter Braesicke, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Stacey Frith, Steven C. Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, Rong-Ming Hu, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Oliver Kirner, Stefanie Kremser, Ulrike Langematz, Jared Lewis, Marion Marchand, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8409–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, 2018
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We analyse simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion by anthropogenic chlorine and bromine. The simulations from 20 models project that global column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (uncertainty range 2042–2052). Return dates in other regions vary depending on factors related to climate change and importance of chlorine and bromine. Column ozone in the tropics may continue to decline.
Clara Orbe, Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, John F. Scinocca, Beatrice Josse, Virginie Marecal, Patrick Jöckel, Luke D. Oman, Susan E. Strahan, Makoto Deushi, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Kohei Yoshida, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Andreas Stenke, Laura Revell, Timofei Sukhodolov, Eugene Rozanov, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7217–7235, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, 2018
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In this study we compare a few atmospheric transport properties among several numerical models that are used to study the influence of atmospheric chemistry on climate. We show that there are large differences among models in terms of the timescales that connect the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, where greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances are emitted, to the Southern Hemisphere. Our results may have important implications for how models represent atmospheric composition.
Simone Dietmüller, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Birner, Harald Boenisch, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Shibata Kiyotaka, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6699–6720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, 2018
William T. Ball, Justin Alsing, Daniel J. Mortlock, Johannes Staehelin, Joanna D. Haigh, Thomas Peter, Fiona Tummon, Rene Stübi, Andrea Stenke, John Anderson, Adam Bourassa, Sean M. Davis, Doug Degenstein, Stacey Frith, Lucien Froidevaux, Chris Roth, Viktoria Sofieva, Ray Wang, Jeannette Wild, Pengfei Yu, Jerald R. Ziemke, and Eugene V. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1379–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1379-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1379-2018, 2018
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Using a robust analysis, with artefact-corrected ozone data, we confirm upper stratospheric ozone is recovering following the Montreal Protocol, but that lower stratospheric ozone (50° S–50° N) has continued to decrease since 1998, and the ozone layer as a whole (60° S–60° N) may be lower today than in 1998. No change in total column ozone may be due to increasing tropospheric ozone. State-of-the-art models do not reproduce lower stratospheric ozone decreases.
Olaf Morgenstern, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando R. Garcia, Kengo Sudo, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Luke D. Oman, Michael E. Manyin, Guang Zeng, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Laura E. Revell, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Glauco Di Genova, Daniele Visioni, Sandip S. Dhomse, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1091–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, 2018
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We assess how ozone as simulated by a group of chemistry–climate models responds to variations in man-made climate gases and ozone-depleting substances. We find some agreement, particularly in the middle and upper stratosphere, but also considerable disagreement elsewhere. Such disagreement affects the reliability of future ozone projections based on these models, and also constitutes a source of uncertainty in climate projections using prescribed ozone derived from these simulations.
Craig S. Long, Masatomo Fujiwara, Sean Davis, Daniel M. Mitchell, and Corwin J. Wright
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14593–14629, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14593-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14593-2017, 2017
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As part of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, we evaluate the temperature and wind structure of all the recent and past reanalyses with 2.5-degree monthly zonal mean data sets from 1979–2014. There is a distinct change in the temperature structure in the stratosphere in 1998. Zonal winds are in greater agreement than temperatures. All reanalyses have issues analysing the tropical stratospheric winds. Caution is advised for using reanalysis temperatures for trend detection.
Jerald R. Ziemke, Sarah A. Strode, Anne R. Douglass, Joanna Joiner, Alexander Vasilkov, Luke D. Oman, Junhua Liu, Susan E. Strahan, Pawan K. Bhartia, and David P. Haffner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 4067–4078, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4067-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4067-2017, 2017
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We combine satellite measurements of ozone and cloud properties from the Aura OMI and MLS instruments for 2004–2016 to measure ozone in the mid–upper levels of deep convective clouds. Our results ascribe upward injection of low boundary layer ozone (varying from low to high amounts) as a major driver of the measured concentrations of ozone in thick clouds. Our OMI/MLS generated ozone product is made available to the public for use in science applications.
Sean M. Davis, Michaela I. Hegglin, Masatomo Fujiwara, Rossana Dragani, Yayoi Harada, Chiaki Kobayashi, Craig Long, Gloria L. Manney, Eric R. Nash, Gerald L. Potter, Susann Tegtmeier, Tao Wang, Krzysztof Wargan, and Jonathon S. Wright
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12743–12778, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12743-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12743-2017, 2017
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Ozone and water vapor in the stratosphere are important gases that affect surface climate and absorb incoming solar ultraviolet radiation. These gases are represented in reanalyses, which create a complete picture of the state of Earth's atmosphere using limited observations. We evaluate reanalysis water vapor and ozone fidelity by intercomparing them, and comparing them to independent observations. Generally reanalyses do a good job at representing ozone, but have problems with water vapor.
Anne R. Douglass, Susan E. Strahan, Luke D. Oman, and Richard S. Stolarski
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12081–12096, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12081-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12081-2017, 2017
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Data records from instruments on satellites and on the ground are compared with a simulation for 1980–2016 that is made using winds and temperatures that are derived from measurements. The simulation tracks the observations faithfully after about 2000, but there are systematic errors for earlier years. Scientists must take this into account when trying to detect and quantify changes in the stratospheric circulation that are caused by climate change.
Gloria L. Manney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Zachary D. Lawrence, Krzysztof Wargan, Luis F. Millán, Michael J. Schwartz, Michelle L. Santee, Alyn Lambert, Steven Pawson, Brian W. Knosp, Ryan A. Fuller, and William H. Daffer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11541–11566, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11541-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11541-2017, 2017
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The upper tropospheric–lower stratospheric (UTLS) jet stream and multiple tropopause distributions are compared among five state-of-the-art reanalyses. The reanalyses show very similar global distributions of UTLS jets, reflecting their overall high quality; slightly larger differences are seen in tropopause characteristics. Regional and seasonal differences, albeit small, may have implications for using these reanalyses for quantitative dynamical and transport studies focusing on the UTLS.
Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Lucien Froidevaux, Ryan Fuller, Ray Wang, John Anderson, Chris Roth, Adam Bourassa, Doug Degenstein, Robert Damadeo, Joe Zawodny, Stacey Frith, Richard McPeters, Pawan Bhartia, Jeannette Wild, Craig Long, Sean Davis, Karen Rosenlof, Viktoria Sofieva, Kaley Walker, Nabiz Rahpoe, Alexei Rozanov, Mark Weber, Alexandra Laeng, Thomas von Clarmann, Gabriele Stiller, Natalya Kramarova, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Thierry Leblanc, Richard Querel, Daan Swart, Ian Boyd, Klemens Hocke, Niklaus Kämpfer, Eliane Maillard Barras, Lorena Moreira, Gerald Nedoluha, Corinne Vigouroux, Thomas Blumenstock, Matthias Schneider, Omaira García, Nicholas Jones, Emmanuel Mahieu, Dan Smale, Michael Kotkamp, John Robinson, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Neil Harris, Birgit Hassler, Daan Hubert, and Fiona Tummon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10675–10690, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10675-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10675-2017, 2017
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Thanks to the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its amendments, ozone-depleting chlorine (and bromine) in the stratosphere has declined slowly since the late 1990s. Improved and extended long-term ozone profile observations from satellites and ground-based stations confirm that ozone is responding as expected and has increased by about 2 % per decade since 2000 in the upper stratosphere, around 40 km altitude. At lower altitudes, however, ozone has not changed significantly since 2000.
Olaf Morgenstern, Michaela I. Hegglin, Eugene Rozanov, Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando R. Garcia, Steven C. Hardiman, Larry W. Horowitz, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Michael E. Manyin, Marion Marchand, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 639–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, 2017
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We present a review of the make-up of 20 models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). In comparison to earlier such activities, most of these models comprise a whole-atmosphere chemistry, and several of them include an interactive ocean module. This makes them suitable for studying the interactions of tropospheric air quality, stratospheric ozone, and climate. The paper lays the foundation for other studies using the CCMI simulations for scientific analysis.
Masatomo Fujiwara, Jonathon S. Wright, Gloria L. Manney, Lesley J. Gray, James Anstey, Thomas Birner, Sean Davis, Edwin P. Gerber, V. Lynn Harvey, Michaela I. Hegglin, Cameron R. Homeyer, John A. Knox, Kirstin Krüger, Alyn Lambert, Craig S. Long, Patrick Martineau, Andrea Molod, Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz, Michelle L. Santee, Susann Tegtmeier, Simon Chabrillat, David G. H. Tan, David R. Jackson, Saroja Polavarapu, Gilbert P. Compo, Rossana Dragani, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Yayoi Harada, Chiaki Kobayashi, Will McCarty, Kazutoshi Onogi, Steven Pawson, Adrian Simmons, Krzysztof Wargan, Jeffrey S. Whitaker, and Cheng-Zhi Zou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1417–1452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1417-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1417-2017, 2017
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We introduce the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP), review key concepts and elements of atmospheric reanalysis systems, and summarize the technical details of and differences among 11 of these systems. This work supports scientific studies and intercomparisons of reanalysis products by collecting these background materials and technical details into a single reference. We also address several common misunderstandings and points of confusion regarding reanalyses.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Valentina Aquila, Darryn W. Waugh, and Luke D. Oman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1313–1327, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1313-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1313-2017, 2017
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Previous work has noted a discrepancy between models and observations in trends of the large-scale overturning circulation in the stratosphere. Here, we show that a model can simulate trends that are reminiscent of those observed, including space- and time-varying trends in different regions of the stratosphere. We therefore clarify that the statement that is often made that models simulate an accelerated circulation only applies over long time periods and is not true for the past 25 years.
Michael R. Giordano, Lars E. Kalnajs, Anita Avery, J. Douglas Goetz, Sean M. Davis, and Peter F. DeCarlo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1-2017, 2017
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This paper summarizes two field measurements of particles and gases made in coastal Antarctica and represents the first real-time composition measurements of particles in this understudied area of the world. Using the combined data from both field measurements, we find that there is a constant background of particles in coastal Antarctica and that they are mostly sulfate. Seasonal transitions from winter to spring add additional particles, and that from spring to summer adds additional sulfate.
Sean M. Davis, Karen H. Rosenlof, Birgit Hassler, Dale F. Hurst, William G. Read, Holger Vömel, Henry Selkirk, Masatomo Fujiwara, and Robert Damadeo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 461–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-461-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-461-2016, 2016
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This paper describes the construction of the Stratospheric Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) database, whose main feature is a combined data product created by homogenizing multiple satellite records. This motivation for SWOOSH is that in order to study multiyear to decadal variability in ozone and water vapor concentrations, it is necessary to have a continuous and smooth record without artificial jumps in the data.
Dale F. Hurst, William G. Read, Holger Vömel, Henry B. Selkirk, Karen H. Rosenlof, Sean M. Davis, Emrys G. Hall, Allen F. Jordan, and Samuel J. Oltmans
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 4447–4457, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4447-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4447-2016, 2016
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This study compares stratospheric water vapor measurements by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and balloon-borne frost point hygrometers (FPs) at five sites that launch two different types of FPs. The results demonstrate that FP and MLS measurements have been diverging at statistically significant rates of 0.6 to 1.5 % per year since approximately 2010. Similarities in the divergences at different sites suggest a positive drift in MLS retrievals since approximately 2010.
Nicholas A. Davis, Dian J. Seidel, Thomas Birner, Sean M. Davis, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10083–10095, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10083-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10083-2016, 2016
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In the Hadley cells, air rises at the Equator and sinks over the subtropics, drying the air and creating deserts on land. We investigated simple climate model experiments and found that the Hadley cells expand in response to increasing carbon dioxide. The climate of some models warms more than others, and these models also have greater Hadley cell expansion. This expansion could shift deserts toward more populated areas, with potentially major impacts on water resources and surface climate.
Mark A. Olsen, Krzysztof Wargan, and Steven Pawson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7091–7103, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7091-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7091-2016, 2016
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Ozone observations from instruments on NASA’s Aura satellite are used to investigate the ENSO impact on tropospheric column ozone (TCO). This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence in the mid-latitudes and shows coherent patterns and connections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The TCO response to ENSO is large enough over some midlatitude regions that it must be considered when attributing the sources of variability and trends in TCO.
Sarah A. Strode, Helen M. Worden, Megan Damon, Anne R. Douglass, Bryan N. Duncan, Louisa K. Emmons, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael Manyin, Luke D. Oman, Jose M. Rodriguez, Susan E. Strahan, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7285–7294, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7285-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7285-2016, 2016
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We use global models to interpret trends in MOPITT observations of CO. Simulations with time-dependent emissions reproduce the observed trends over the eastern USA and Europe, suggesting that the emissions are reasonable for these regions. The simulations produce a positive trend over eastern China, contrary to the observed negative trend. This may indicate that the assumed emission trend over China is too positive. However, large variability in the overhead ozone column also contributes.
N. R. P. Harris, B. Hassler, F. Tummon, G. E. Bodeker, D. Hubert, I. Petropavlovskikh, W. Steinbrecht, J. Anderson, P. K. Bhartia, C. D. Boone, A. Bourassa, S. M. Davis, D. Degenstein, A. Delcloo, S. M. Frith, L. Froidevaux, S. Godin-Beekmann, N. Jones, M. J. Kurylo, E. Kyrölä, M. Laine, S. T. Leblanc, J.-C. Lambert, B. Liley, E. Mahieu, A. Maycock, M. de Mazière, A. Parrish, R. Querel, K. H. Rosenlof, C. Roth, C. Sioris, J. Staehelin, R. S. Stolarski, R. Stübi, J. Tamminen, C. Vigouroux, K. A. Walker, H. J. Wang, J. Wild, and J. M. Zawodny
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9965–9982, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9965-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9965-2015, 2015
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Trends in the vertical distribution of ozone are reported for new and recently revised data sets. The amount of ozone-depleting compounds in the stratosphere peaked in the second half of the 1990s. We examine the trends before and after that peak to see if any change in trend is discernible. The previously reported decreases are confirmed. Furthermore, the downward trend in upper stratospheric ozone has not continued. The possible significance of any increase is discussed in detail.
J. R. Ziemke, A. R. Douglass, L. D. Oman, S. E. Strahan, and B. N. Duncan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8037–8049, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8037-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8037-2015, 2015
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Aura OMI and MLS measurements are combined to produce daily maps of tropospheric ozone beginning October 2004. We show that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related inter-annual change in tropospheric ozone in the tropics is small compared to combined intra-seasonal/Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and shorter timescale variability. Outgoing Longwave Radiation indicates that deep convection is the primary driver of the observed ozone variability on all timescales.
E. L. McGrath-Spangler, A. Molod, L. E. Ott, and S. Pawson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7269–7286, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7269-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7269-2015, 2015
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PBL processes are important for weather, climate, and tracer transport and concentration. In the GEOS-5 AGCM, the PBL depth is used in the calculation of turbulent mixing. This study analyzes the impact of using different PBL depth definitions in this calculation. Near surface wind speed differences modify Saharan dust on the order of 1e-4kg m-2. CO surface concentrations are modified by up to 20 ppb over biomass burning regions. Instantaneous CO2 differences are on the order of 10 ppm.
F. Tummon, B. Hassler, N. R. P. Harris, J. Staehelin, W. Steinbrecht, J. Anderson, G. E. Bodeker, A. Bourassa, S. M. Davis, D. Degenstein, S. M. Frith, L. Froidevaux, E. Kyrölä, M. Laine, C. Long, A. A. Penckwitt, C. E. Sioris, K. H. Rosenlof, C. Roth, H.-J. Wang, and J. Wild
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3021–3043, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3021-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3021-2015, 2015
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Understanding ozone trends in the vertical is vital in terms of assessing the success of the Montreal Protocol. This paper compares and analyses the long-term trends in stratospheric ozone from seven new merged satellite data sets. The data sets largely agree well with each other, particularly for the negative trends seen in the early period 1984-1997. For the 1998-2011 period there is less agreement, but a clear shift from negative to mostly positive trends.
M. S. Long, R. Yantosca, J. E. Nielsen, C. A. Keller, A. da Silva, M. P. Sulprizio, S. Pawson, and D. J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 595–602, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-595-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-595-2015, 2015
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This paper presents results from the modularization of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, and its coupling as the chemical operator within the NASA-GMAO GEOS-5 Earth system model (ESM). The key findings are that chemistry within the modular GEOS-Chem system shows consistent, high strong-scaling properties across the range of distributed processors, transport is the limiting component prohibiting efficient scalability, and GEOS-Chem is able to generate suitable chemical results in an ESM.
D. W. Fahey, R.-S. Gao, O. Möhler, H. Saathoff, C. Schiller, V. Ebert, M. Krämer, T. Peter, N. Amarouche, L. M. Avallone, R. Bauer, Z. Bozóki, L. E. Christensen, S. M. Davis, G. Durry, C. Dyroff, R. L. Herman, S. Hunsmann, S. M. Khaykin, P. Mackrodt, J. Meyer, J. B. Smith, N. Spelten, R. F. Troy, H. Vömel, S. Wagner, and F. G. Wienhold
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3177–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3177-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3177-2014, 2014
C. A. Keller, M. S. Long, R. M. Yantosca, A. M. Da Silva, S. Pawson, and D. J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1409–1417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1409-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1409-2014, 2014
M. M. Hurwitz, L. D. Oman, P. A. Newman, and I.-S. Song
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 12187–12197, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-12187-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-12187-2013, 2013
P. I. Palmer, M. Parrington, J. D. Lee, A. C. Lewis, A. R. Rickard, P. F. Bernath, T. J. Duck, D. L. Waugh, D. W. Tarasick, S. Andrews, E. Aruffo, L. J. Bailey, E. Barrett, S. J.-B. Bauguitte, K. R. Curry, P. Di Carlo, L. Chisholm, L. Dan, G. Forster, J. E. Franklin, M. D. Gibson, D. Griffin, D. Helmig, J. R. Hopkins, J. T. Hopper, M. E. Jenkin, D. Kindred, J. Kliever, M. Le Breton, S. Matthiesen, M. Maurice, S. Moller, D. P. Moore, D. E. Oram, S. J. O'Shea, R. C. Owen, C. M. L. S. Pagniello, S. Pawson, C. J. Percival, J. R. Pierce, S. Punjabi, R. M. Purvis, J. J. Remedios, K. M. Rotermund, K. M. Sakamoto, A. M. da Silva, K. B. Strawbridge, K. Strong, J. Taylor, R. Trigwell, K. A. Tereszchuk, K. A. Walker, D. Weaver, C. Whaley, and J. C. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6239–6261, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6239-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6239-2013, 2013
A. Tangborn, L. L. Strow, B. Imbiriba, L. Ott, and S. Pawson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4487–4500, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4487-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4487-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Crucial role of obliquely propagating gravity waves in the quasi-biennial oscillation dynamics
Technical note: Multi-year changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation from Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) methane
Exploring the ENSO modulation of the QBO periods with GISS E2.2 models
The impact of ENSO and NAO initial conditions and anomalies on the modeled response to Pinatubo-sized volcanic forcing
Stratospherically induced circulation changes under the extreme conditions of the no-Montreal-Protocol scenario
Vortex preconditioning of the 2021 sudden stratospheric warming: barotropic–baroclinic instability associated with the double westerly jets
On the pattern of interannual polar vortex–ozone co-variability during northern hemispheric winter
A mountain ridge model for quantifying oblique mountain wave propagation and distribution
QBO modulation of the Asian Monsoon water vapour
Weakening of the tropical tropopause layer cold trap with global warming
On the magnitude and sensitivity of the quasi-biennial oscillation response to a tropical volcanic eruption
The response of the North Pacific jet and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of ozone over western North America to RCP8.5 climate forcing
The Holton–Tan mechanism under stratospheric aerosol intervention
Very-long-period oscillations in the atmosphere (0–110 km) – Part 2: Latitude– longitude comparisons and trends
Driving mechanisms for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation impact on stratospheric ozone
Exploring the link between austral stratospheric polar vortex anomalies and surface climate in chemistry-climate models
The impact of improved spatial and temporal resolution of reanalysis data on Lagrangian studies of the tropical tropopause layer
Dynamics of ENSO-driven stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of ozone over North America
Ozone–gravity wave interaction in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere
How can Brewer–Dobson circulation trends be estimated from changes in stratospheric water vapour and methane?
The semi-annual oscillation (SAO) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS)
Interactions between the stratospheric polar vortex and Atlantic circulation on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales
Impacts of three types of solar geoengineering on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Enhanced upward motion through the troposphere over the tropical western Pacific and its implications for the transport of trace gases from the troposphere to the stratosphere
Evolution of the intensity and duration of the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex edge for the period 1979–2020
Characterization of transport from the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone into the UTLS via shedding of low potential vorticity cutoffs
Long-range prediction and the stratosphere
Weakening of Antarctic stratospheric planetary wave activities in early austral spring since the early 2000s: a response to sea surface temperature trends
The impact of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) sinks on age of air climatologies and trends
Specified dynamics scheme impacts on wave-mean flow dynamics, convection, and tracer transport in CESM2 (WACCM6)
Propagation paths and source distributions of resolved gravity waves in ECMWF-IFS analysis fields around the southern polar night jet
Observation and modeling of high-7Be concentration events at the surface in northern Europe associated with the instability of the Arctic polar vortex in early 2003
Eastward-propagating planetary waves in the polar middle atmosphere
The Brewer–Dobson circulation in CMIP6
Climate impact of volcanic eruptions: the sensitivity to eruption season and latitude in MPI-ESM ensemble experiments
Contributions of equatorial waves and small-scale convective gravity waves to the 2019/20 quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) disruption
Differences in the quasi-biennial oscillation response to stratospheric aerosol modification depending on injection strategy and species
The advective Brewer–Dobson circulation in the ERA5 reanalysis: climatology, variability, and trends
Is our dynamical understanding of the circulation changes associated with the Antarctic ozone hole sensitive to the choice of reanalysis dataset?
The impact of increasing stratospheric radiative damping on the quasi-biennial oscillation period
Analysis of recent lower-stratospheric ozone trends in chemistry climate models
Asymmetry and pathways of inter-hemispheric transport in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere
Effects of prescribed CMIP6 ozone on simulating the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation response to ozone depletion
Reanalysis intercomparison of potential vorticity and potential-vorticity-based diagnostics
Influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on entry stratospheric water vapor in coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models
Reappraising the appropriate calculation of a common meteorological quantity: potential temperature
Impact of Lagrangian transport on lower-stratospheric transport timescales in a climate model
Role of equatorial waves and convective gravity waves in the 2015/16 quasi-biennial oscillation disruption
Sensitivity of the Southern Hemisphere circumpolar jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: prescribed versus interactive chemistry
Characterizing quasi-biweekly variability of the Asian monsoon anticyclone using potential vorticity and large-scale geopotential height field
Young-Ha Kim, Georg Sebastian Voelker, Gergely Bölöni, Günther Zängl, and Ulrich Achatz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3297–3308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3297-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3297-2024, 2024
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The quasi-biennial oscillation, which governs the tropical stratospheric circulation, is driven primarily by small-scale wave processes. We employ a novel method to realistically represent these wave processes in a global model, thereby revealing an aspect of the oscillation that has not been identified before. We find that the oblique propagation of waves, a process neglected by existing climate models, plays a pivotal role in the stratospheric circulation and its oscillation.
Ellis Remsberg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1691–1697, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1691-2024, 2024
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CH4 data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment show clear changes in the deep and shallow branches of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) from 1992 to 2005. CH4 decreased in the upper stratosphere in the early 1990s following the Pinatubo eruption. There was also meridional transport of CH4 from the tropics to mid-latitudes in both hemispheres in the late 1990s. CH4 trends in the shallow branch agree with the tropospheric CH4 trends from 1996 to 2005.
Tiehan Zhou, Kevin J. DallaSanta, Clara Orbe, David H. Rind, Jeffrey A. Jonas, Larissa Nazarenko, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Gary Russell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 509–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-509-2024, 2024
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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tends to speed up and slow down the phase speed of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) during El Niño and La Niña, respectively. The ENSO modulation of the QBO does not show up in the climate models with parameterized but temporally constant gravity wave sources. We show that the GISS E2.2 models can capture the observed ENSO modulation of the QBO period with a horizontal resolution of 2° by 2.5° and its gravity wave sources parameterized interactively.
Helen Weierbach, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Kostas Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15491–15505, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15491-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15491-2023, 2023
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Volcanic aerosols impact global and regional climate conditions but can vary depending on pre-existing initial climate conditions. We ran an ensemble of volcanic aerosol simulations under varying ENSO and NAO initial conditions to understand how initial climate states impact the modeled response to volcanic forcing. Overall we found that initial NAO conditions can impact the strength of the first winter post-eruptive response but are also affected by the choice of anomaly and sampling routine.
Franziska Zilker, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Marina Friedel, Tatiana Egorova, Eugene Rozanov, Jan Sedlacek, Svenja Seeber, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13387–13411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13387-2023, 2023
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The Montreal Protocol (MP) has successfully reduced the Antarctic ozone hole by banning chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that destroy the ozone layer. Moreover, CFCs are strong greenhouse gases (GHGs) that would have strengthened global warming. In this study, we investigate the surface weather and climate in a world without the MP at the end of the 21st century, disentangling ozone-mediated and GHG impacts of CFCs. Overall, we avoided 1.7 K global surface warming and a poleward shift in storm tracks.
Ji-Hee Yoo, Hye-Yeong Chun, and Min-Jee Kang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10869–10881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10869-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10869-2023, 2023
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The January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming was preceded by unusual double westerly jets with polar stratospheric and subtropical mesospheric cores. This wind structure promotes anomalous dissipation of tropospheric planetary waves between the two maxima, leading to unusually strong shear instability. Shear instability generates the westward-propagating planetary waves with zonal wavenumber 2 in situ, thereby splitting the polar vortex just before the onset.
Frederik Harzer, Hella Garny, Felix Ploeger, Harald Bönisch, Peter Hoor, and Thomas Birner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10661–10675, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10661-2023, 2023
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We study the statistical relation between year-by-year fluctuations in winter-mean ozone and the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. In the latitude–pressure plane, regression analysis shows that anomalously weak polar vortex years are associated with three pronounced local ozone maxima over the polar cap relative to the winter climatology. These response maxima primarily reflect the non-trivial combination of different ozone transport processes with varying relative contributions.
Sebastian Rhode, Peter Preusse, Manfred Ern, Jörn Ungermann, Lukas Krasauskas, Julio Bacmeister, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7901–7934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7901-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7901-2023, 2023
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Gravity waves (GWs) transport energy vertically and horizontally within the atmosphere and thereby affect wind speeds far from their sources. Here, we present a model that identifies orographic GW sources and predicts the pathways of the excited GWs through the atmosphere for a better understanding of horizontal GW propagation. We use this model to explain physical patterns in satellite observations (e.g., low GW activity above the Himalaya) and predict seasonal patterns of GW propagation.
Cristina Peña-Ortiz, Nurial Pilar Plaza, David Gallego, and Felix Plöger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1432, 2023
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Although water vapour (H2O) in the lower stratosphere is only a few molecules among 1 million air molecules, atmospheric radiative forcing and surface temperature are particularly sensible to small changes in its concentration. Monsoon regions play a key role in H2O transport and in its concentration in the lower stratosphere. We show how the QBO has a major impact on H2O over the Asian monsoon during August through changes in temperature caused by the QBO modulation of convection.
Stephen Bourguet and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7447–7460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7447-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7447-2023, 2023
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Here, we show how projected changes to tropical circulation will impact the water vapor concentration in the lower stratosphere, which has implications for surface climate and stratospheric chemistry. In our transport scenarios with slower east–west winds, air parcels ascending into the stratosphere do not experience the same cold temperatures that they would today. This effect could act in concert with previously modeled changes to stratospheric water vapor to amplify surface warming.
Flossie Brown, Lauren Marshall, Peter H. Haynes, Rolando R. Garcia, Thomas Birner, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5335–5353, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, 2023
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Large-magnitude volcanic eruptions have the potential to alter large-scale circulation patterns, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO is an oscillation of the tropical stratospheric zonal winds between easterly and westerly directions. Using a climate model, we show that large-magnitude eruptions can delay the progression of the QBO, with a much longer delay when the shear is easterly than when it is westerly. Such delays may affect weather and transport of atmospheric gases.
Dillon Elsbury, Amy H. Butler, John R. Albers, Melissa L. Breeden, and Andrew O'Neil Langford
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5101–5117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5101-2023, 2023
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One of the global hotspots where stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) of ozone takes place is over Pacific North America (PNA). However, we do not know how or if STT over PNA will change in response to climate change. Using climate model experiments forced with
worst-casescenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change, we find that changes in net chemical production and transport of ozone in the lower stratosphere increase STT of ozone over PNA in the future.
Khalil Karami, Rolando Garcia, Christoph Jacobi, Jadwiga H. Richter, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3799–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, 2023
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Alongside mitigation and adaptation efforts, stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) is increasingly considered a third pillar to combat dangerous climate change. We investigate the teleconnection between the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere and the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex under a warmer climate and an SAI scenario. We show that the Holton–Tan relationship weakens under both scenarios and discuss the physical mechanisms responsible for such changes.
Dirk Offermann, Christoph Kalicinsky, Ralf Koppmann, and Johannes Wintel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3267–3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3267-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric oscillations with periods between 5 and more than 200 years are believed to be self-excited (internal) in the atmosphere, i.e. non-anthropogenic. They are found at all altitudes up to 110 km and at four very different geographical locations (75° N, 70° E; 75° N, 280° E; 50° N, 7° E; 50° S, 7° E). Therefore, they hint at a global-oscillation mode. Their amplitudes are on the order of present-day climate trends, and it is therefore difficult to disentangle them.
Samuel Benito-Barca, Natalia Calvo, and Marta Abalos
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15729–15745, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15729-2022, 2022
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The impact of different El Niño flavors (eastern (EP) and central (CP) Pacific El Niño) and La Niña on the stratospheric ozone is studied in a state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model. Ozone reduces in the tropics and increases in the extratropics when an EP El Niño event occurs, the opposite of La Niña. However, CP El Niño has no impact on extratropical ozone. These ozone variations are driven by changes in the stratospheric transport circulation, with an important contribution of mixing.
Nora Bergner, Marina Friedel, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Darryn Waugh, and Gabriel Chiodo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13915–13934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, 2022
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Polar vortex extremes, particularly situations with an unusually weak cyclonic circulation in the stratosphere, can influence the surface climate in the spring–summer time in the Southern Hemisphere. Using chemistry-climate models and observations, we evaluate the robustness of the surface impacts. While models capture the general surface response, they do not show the observed climate patterns in midlatitude regions, which we trace back to biases in the models' circulations.
Stephen Bourguet and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13325–13339, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13325-2022, 2022
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Here, we tested the impact of spatial and temporal resolution on Lagrangian trajectory studies in a key region of interest for climate feedbacks and stratospheric chemistry. Our analysis shows that new higher-resolution input data provide an opportunity for a better understanding of physical processes that control how air moves from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Future studies of how these processes will change in a warming climate will benefit from these results.
John R. Albers, Amy H. Butler, Andrew O. Langford, Dillon Elsbury, and Melissa L. Breeden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13035–13048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13035-2022, 2022
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Ozone transported from the stratosphere contributes to background ozone concentrations in the free troposphere and to surface ozone exceedance events that affect human health. The physical processes whereby the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates North American stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone transport during spring are documented, and the usefulness of ENSO for predicting ozone events that may cause exceedances in surface air quality standards are assessed.
Axel Gabriel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10425–10441, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10425-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10425-2022, 2022
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Recent measurements show some evidence that the amplitudes of atmospheric gravity waves (horizontal wavelengths of 100–2000 km), which propagate from the troposphere (0–10 km) to the stratosphere and mesosphere (10–100 km), increase more strongly with height during daytime than during nighttime. This study shows that ozone–temperature coupling in the upper stratosphere can principally produce such an amplification. The results will help to improve atmospheric circulation models.
Liubov Poshyvailo-Strube, Rolf Müller, Stephan Fueglistaler, Michaela I. Hegglin, Johannes C. Laube, C. Michael Volk, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9895–9914, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9895-2022, 2022
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Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) controls the composition of the stratosphere, which in turn affects radiation and climate. As the BDC cannot be measured directly, it is necessary to infer its strength and trends indirectly. In this study, we test in the
model worlddifferent methods for estimating the mean age of air trends based on a combination of stratospheric water vapour and methane data. We also provide simple practical advice of a more reliable estimation of the mean age of air trends.
Ming Shangguan and Wuke Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9499–9511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9499-2022, 2022
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Skilful predictions of weather and climate on subseasonal to seasonal scales are valuable for decision makers. Here we show the global spatiotemporal variation of the temperature SAO in the UTLS with GNSS RO and reanalysis data. The formation of the SAO is explained by an energy budget analysis. The results show that the SAO in the UTLS is partly modified by the SSTs according to model simulations. The results may provide an important source for seasonal predictions of the surface weather.
Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, Scott Osprey, Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton, and Bablu Sinha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4867–4893, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, 2022
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This study examines interactions between variations in the strength of polar stratospheric winds and circulation in the North Atlantic in a climate model simulation. It finds that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) responds with oscillations to sets of consecutive Northern Hemisphere winters, which show all strong or all weak polar vortex conditions. The study also shows that a set of strong vortex winters in the 1990s contributed to the recent slowdown in the observed AMOC.
Mengdie Xie, John C. Moore, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4581–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4581-2022, 2022
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We use data from six Earth system models to estimate Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) changes and its drivers under four different solar geoengineering methods. Solar dimming seems relatively more effective than marine cloud brightening or stratospheric aerosol injection at reversing greenhouse-gas-driven declines in AMOC. Geoengineering-induced AMOC amelioration is due to better maintenance of air–sea temperature differences and reduced loss of Arctic summer sea ice.
Kai Qie, Wuke Wang, Wenshou Tian, Rui Huang, Mian Xu, Tao Wang, and Yifeng Peng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4393–4411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4393-2022, 2022
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We identify a significantly intensified upward motion over the tropical western Pacific (TWP) and an enhanced tropical upwelling in boreal winter during 1958–2017 due to the warming of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Our results suggest that more tropospheric trace gases over the TWP could be elevated to the lower stratosphere, which implies that the emission from the maritime continent plays a more important role in the stratospheric processes and the global climate.
Audrey Lecouffe, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Andrea Pazmiño, and Alain Hauchecorne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4187–4200, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4187-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4187-2022, 2022
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This study uses a model developped at LATMOS (France) to analyze the behavior of the Antarctic polar vortex from 1979 to 2020 at 675 K, 550 K, and 475 K isentropic levels. We found that the vortex edge intensity is stronger during the September–October–November period, while its edge position is less extended during this period. The polar vortex is stronger and lasts longer during solar minimum years. Breakup dates of the polar vortex are linked to the ozone hole and maximum wind speed.
Jan Clemens, Felix Ploeger, Paul Konopka, Raphael Portmann, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3841–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, 2022
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Highly polluted air flows from the surface to higher levels of the atmosphere during the Asian summer monsoon. At high levels, the air is trapped within eddies. Here, we study how air masses can leave the eddy within its cutoff, how they distribute, and how their chemical composition changes. We found evidence for transport from the eddy to higher latitudes over the North Pacific and even Alaska. During transport, trace gas concentrations within cutoffs changed gradually, showing steady mixing.
Adam A. Scaife, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun-Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok-Woo Son, and David W. J. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2601–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, 2022
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Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate, and here we review its role in long-range predictions and projections from weeks to decades ahead.
Yihang Hu, Wenshou Tian, Jiankai Zhang, Tao Wang, and Mian Xu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1575–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1575-2022, 2022
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Antarctic stratospheric wave activities in September have been weakening significantly since the 2000s. Further analysis supports the finding that sea surface temperature (SST) trends over 20° N–70° S lead to the weakening of stratospheric wave activities, while the response of stratospheric wave activities to ozone recovery is weak. Thus, the SST trend should be taken into consideration when exploring the mechanism for the climate transition in the southern hemispheric stratosphere around 2000.
Sheena Loeffel, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Reddmann, Frauke Fritsch, Stefan Versick, Gabriele Stiller, and Florian Haenel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1175–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1175-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1175-2022, 2022
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SF6-derived trends of stratospheric AoA from observations and model simulations disagree in sign. SF6 experiences chemical degradation, which we explicitly integrate in a global climate model. In our simulations, the AoA trend changes sign when SF6 sinks are considered; thus, the process has the potential to reconcile simulated with observed AoA trends. We show that the positive AoA trend is due to the SF6 sinks themselves and provide a first approach for a correction to account for SF6 loss.
Nicholas A. Davis, Patrick Callaghan, Isla R. Simpson, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 197–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-197-2022, 2022
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Specified dynamics schemes attempt to constrain the atmospheric circulation in a climate model to isolate the role of transport in chemical variability, evaluate model physics, and interpret field campaign observations. We show that the specified dynamics scheme in CESM2 erroneously suppresses convection and induces circulation errors that project onto errors in tracers, even using the most optimal settings. Development of a more sophisticated scheme is necessary for future progress.
Cornelia Strube, Peter Preusse, Manfred Ern, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18641–18668, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18641-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18641-2021, 2021
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High gravity wave (GW) momentum fluxes in the lower stratospheric southern polar vortex around 60° S are still poorly understood. Few GW sources are found at these latitudes. We present a ray tracing case study on waves resolved in high-resolution global model temperatures southeast of New Zealand. We show that lateral propagation of more than 1000 km takes place below 20 km altitude, and a variety of orographic and non-orographic sources located north of 50° S generate the wave field.
Erika Brattich, Hongyu Liu, Bo Zhang, Miguel Ángel Hernández-Ceballos, Jussi Paatero, Darko Sarvan, Vladimir Djurdjevic, Laura Tositti, and Jelena Ajtić
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17927–17951, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17927-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17927-2021, 2021
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In this study we analyse the output of a chemistry and transport model together with observations of different meteorological and compositional variables to demonstrate the link between sudden stratospheric warming and transport of stratospheric air to the surface in the subpolar regions of Europe during the cold season. Our findings have particular implications for atmospheric composition since climate projections indicate more frequent sudden stratospheric warming under a warmer climate.
Liang Tang, Sheng-Yang Gu, and Xian-Kang Dou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17495–17512, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17495-2021, 2021
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Our study explores the variation in the occurrence date, peak amplitude and wave period for eastward waves and the role of instability, background wind structure and the critical layer in eastward wave propagation and amplification.
Marta Abalos, Natalia Calvo, Samuel Benito-Barca, Hella Garny, Steven C. Hardiman, Pu Lin, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Rolando Garcia, Clara Orbe, David Saint-Martin, Shingo Watanabe, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13571–13591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, 2021
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The stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), responsible for transporting mass, tracers and heat globally in the stratosphere, is evaluated in a set of state-of-the-art climate models. The acceleration of the BDC in response to increasing greenhouse gases is most robust in the lower stratosphere. At higher levels, the well-known inconsistency between model and observational BDC trends can be partly reconciled by accounting for limited sampling and large uncertainties in the observations.
Zhihong Zhuo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13425–13442, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, 2021
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The impact of volcanic eruptions varies with eruption season and latitude. This study simulated eruptions at different latitudes and in different seasons with a fully coupled climate model. The climate impacts of northern and southern hemispheric eruptions are reversed but are insensitive to eruption season. Results suggest that the regional climate impacts are due to the dynamical response of the climate system to radiative effects of volcanic aerosols and the subsequent regional feedbacks.
Min-Jee Kang and Hye-Yeong Chun
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9839–9857, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9839-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9839-2021, 2021
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In winter 2019/20, the westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase was disrupted again by easterly winds. It is found that strong Rossby waves from the Southern Hemisphere weaken the jet core in early stages, and strong mixed Rossby–gravity waves reverse the wind in later stages. Inertia–gravity waves and small-scale convective gravity waves also provide negative forcing. These strong waves are attributed to an anomalous wind profile, barotropic instability, and slightly strong convection.
Henning Franke, Ulrike Niemeier, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8615–8635, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8615-2021, 2021
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Stratospheric aerosol modification (SAM) can alter the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Our simulations with two different models show that the characteristics of the QBO response are primarily determined by the meridional structure of the aerosol-induced heating. Therefore, the QBO response to SAM depends primarily on the location of injection, while injection type and rate act to scale the specific response. Our results have important implications for evaluating adverse side effects of SAM.
Mohamadou Diallo, Manfred Ern, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7515–7544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7515-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7515-2021, 2021
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Despite good agreement in the spatial structure, there are substantial differences in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) and its modulations in the UTLS and upper stratosphere. The tropical upwelling is generally weaker in ERA5 than in ERAI due to weaker planetary and gravity wave breaking in the UTLS. Analysis of the BDC trend shows an acceleration of the BDC of about 1.5 % decade-1 due to the long-term intensification in wave breaking, consistent with climate predictions.
Andrew Orr, Hua Lu, Patrick Martineau, Edwin P. Gerber, Gareth J. Marshall, and Thomas J. Bracegirdle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7451–7472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7451-2021, 2021
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Reanalysis datasets combine observations and weather forecast simulations to create our best estimate of the state of the atmosphere and are important for climate monitoring. Differences in the technical details of these products mean that they may give different results. This study therefore examined how changes associated with the so-called Antarctic ozone hole are represented, which is one of the most important climate changes in recent decades, and showed that they were broadly consistent.
Tiehan Zhou, Kevin DallaSanta, Larissa Nazarenko, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Zhonghai Jin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7395–7407, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7395-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7395-2021, 2021
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Stratospheric radiative damping increases with rising CO2. Sensitivity experiments using the one-dimensional mechanistic models of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) indicate a shortening of the simulated QBO period due to the enhancing of the radiative damping. This result suggests that increasing radiative damping may play a role in determining the QBO period in a warming climate along with wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and tropical vertical residual velocity.
Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Roland Eichinger, and William T. Ball
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6811–6837, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6811-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6811-2021, 2021
Xiaolu Yan, Paul Konopka, Marius Hauck, Aurélien Podglajen, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6627–6645, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6627-2021, 2021
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Inter-hemispheric transport is important for understanding atmospheric tracers because of the asymmetry in emissions between the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH). This study finds that the air masses from the NH extratropics to the atmosphere are about 5 times larger than those from the SH extratropics. The interplay between the Asian summer monsoon and westerly ducts triggers the cross-Equator transport from the NH to the SH in boreal summer and fall.
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Sebastian Wahl, Jan Harlaß, and Arne Biastoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5777–5806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, 2021
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The Antarctic ozone hole has driven substantial dynamical changes in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere over the past decades. This study separates the historical impacts of ozone depletion from those of rising levels of greenhouse gases and investigates how these impacts are captured in two types of climate models: one using interactive atmospheric chemistry and one prescribing the CMIP6 ozone field. The effects of ozone depletion are more pronounced in the model with interactive chemistry.
Luis F. Millán, Gloria L. Manney, and Zachary D. Lawrence
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5355–5376, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5355-2021, 2021
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We assess how consistently reanalyses represent potential vorticity (PV) among each other. PV helps describe dynamical processes in the stratosphere because it acts approximately as a tracer of the movement of air parcels; it is extensively used to identify the location of the tropopause and to identify and characterize the stratospheric polar vortex. Overall, PV from all reanalyses agrees well with the reanalysis ensemble mean.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ohad Harari, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Jian Rao, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Fiona M. O'Connor, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3725–3740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, 2021
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Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and El Niño is the dominant mode of variability in the ocean–atmosphere system. The connection between El Niño and water vapor above ~ 17 km is unclear, with single-model studies reaching a range of conclusions. This study examines this connection in 12 different models. While there are substantial differences among the models, all models appear to capture the fundamental physical processes correctly.
Manuel Baumgartner, Ralf Weigel, Allan H. Harvey, Felix Plöger, Ulrich Achatz, and Peter Spichtinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15585–15616, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15585-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15585-2020, 2020
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The potential temperature is routinely used in atmospheric science. We review its derivation and suggest a new potential temperature, based on a temperature-dependent parameterization of the dry air's specific heat capacity. Moreover, we compare the new potential temperature to the common one and discuss the differences which become more important at higher altitudes. Finally, we indicate some consequences of using the new potential temperature in typical applications.
Edward J. Charlesworth, Ann-Kristin Dugstad, Frauke Fritsch, Patrick Jöckel, and Felix Plöger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15227–15245, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15227-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15227-2020, 2020
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Modeling the stratosphere requires models with good representations of chemical transport. To do this, nearly all models divide the atmosphere into boxes. This creates some unwanted problems. However, the only other option is to divide the atmosphere into balloons, and this method is very complicated. Here, we use a model which uses this balloon-like method to estimate the impacts of this method on chemical transport. We find significant differences in sensitive regions of the stratosphere.
Min-Jee Kang, Hye-Yeong Chun, and Rolando R. Garcia
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14669–14693, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14669-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14669-2020, 2020
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In winter 2015/16, the descent of the westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) jet was interrupted by easterly winds. We find that Rossby–gravity and inertia–gravity waves weaken the jet core in early stages, and small-scale convective gravity waves, as well as horizontal and vertical components of Rossby waves, reverse the wind sign in later stages. The strong negative wave forcing in the tropics results from the enhanced convection, an anomalous wind profile, and barotropic instability.
Sabine Haase, Jaika Fricke, Tim Kruschke, Sebastian Wahl, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14043–14061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14043-2020, 2020
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Ozone depletion over Antarctica was shown to influence the tropospheric jet in the Southern Hemisphere. We investigate the atmospheric response to ozone depletion comparing climate model ensembles with interactive and prescribed ozone fields. We show that allowing feedbacks between ozone chemistry and model physics as well as including asymmetries in ozone leads to a strengthened ozone depletion signature in the stratosphere but does not significantly affect the tropospheric jet position.
Arata Amemiya and Kaoru Sato
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13857–13876, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13857-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13857-2020, 2020
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The spatial pattern of subseasonal variability of the Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA) is analyzed using long-term reanalysis data, integrating two different views using potential vorticity and the geopotential height anomaly. This study provides a link between two existing description of the Asian monsoon anticyclone, which is important for the understanding of the whole life cycle of its characteristic subseasonal variability pattern.
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Short summary
The impact of El Niño in the lower stratosphere is nonlinear in spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region,
strong El Niño events appear to lead to warming, and hence the water vapor response is nonlinear too. The net effect is that strong
El Nino events, such as in 1997/1998 and 2015/2016, lead to qualitatively different water vapor impacts as compared to moderate
El Nino events.
The impact of El Niño in the lower stratosphere is nonlinear in spring. While moderate El Niño...
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