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An inversion method is tested in a forecasting setting for constraining ash dispersion by satellite observations. The sensitivity of a priori and satellite uncertainties is tested for the a posteriori term. The a posteriori is also tested with four different assumptions affecting the retrieved ash satellite data. In forecasting mode, the a posteriori changes after only 12 h of satellite observations and produces better forecasts than a priori.
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Articles | Volume 17, issue 14
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9205–9222, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9205-2017
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9205–9222, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9205-2017

Research article 31 Jul 2017

Research article | 31 Jul 2017

Uncertainty assessment and applicability of an inversion method for volcanic ash forecasting

Birthe Marie Steensen et al.

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Arason, P., Petersen, G. N., and Bjornsson, H.: Plume-top altitude time-series during 2010 volcanic eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavik, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.760690, 2011.
Boichu, M., Menut, L., Khvorostyanov, D., Clarisse, L., Clerbaux, C., Turquety, S., and Coheur, P.-F.: Inverting for volcanic SO2 flux at high temporal resolution using spaceborne plume imagery and chemistry-transport modelling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption case study, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 8569–8584, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8569-2013, 2013.
Casadevall, T.: The 1989–1990 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska: Impacts on aircraft operations, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 62, 301–316, https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(94)90038-8, 1994.
Clarisse, L., Prata, F., Lacour, J. L., Hurtmans, D., Clerbaux, C., and Coheur, P. F.: A correlation method for volcanic ash detection using hyperspectral infrared measurements, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044828, 2010.
Corradini, S., Spinette, C., Carboni, E., Tirelli, C., Buongiorno, M. F., Pugnaghi, S., and Gangale, G.: Mt. Etna tropospheric ash retrieval and sensitivity analysis using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Measurements, J. Appl. Remote Sens., 2, 023550, https://doi.org/10.1117/1.3046674 674, 2008.
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Short summary
An inversion method is tested in a forecasting setting for constraining ash dispersion by satellite observations. The sensitivity of a priori and satellite uncertainties is tested for the a posteriori term. The a posteriori is also tested with four different assumptions affecting the retrieved ash satellite data. In forecasting mode, the a posteriori changes after only 12 h of satellite observations and produces better forecasts than a priori.
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