Uncertainty assessment and applicability of an inversion method for volcanic ash forecasting

Steensen, Birthe Marie; Kylling, Arve; Kristiansen, Nina Iren; Schulz, Michael

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9205-2017

Articles | Volume 17, issue 14

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9205-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9205-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 14

Research article

|

31 Jul 2017

Research article |

| 31 Jul 2017

Uncertainty assessment and applicability of an inversion method for volcanic ash forecasting

Birthe Marie Steensen, Arve Kylling, Nina Iren Kristiansen, and Michael Schulz

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Final revised paper (published on 31 Jul 2017)
Preprint (discussion started on 27 Jan 2017)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Mar 2017
- AC1: 'Response to referee review #2', Birthe Marie Steensen, 26 May 2017
SC1: 'Short comment on “Uncertainty assessment and applicability of an inversion method for volcanic ash forecasting” by Birthe Marie Steensen et al.', Sara Barsotti, 30 Mar 2017
- AC2: 'Response to short comment #1', Birthe Marie Steensen, 26 May 2017
RC2: 'review of ms', Roger Denlinger, 01 Apr 2017
- AC3: 'Response to referee review #1', Birthe Marie Steensen, 26 May 2017

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by Birthe Marie Steensen on behalf of the Authors (02 Jun 2017) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (09 Jun 2017) by Thomas von Clarmann (deceased)

AR by Birthe Marie Steensen on behalf of the Authors (12 Jun 2017)

Short summary

An inversion method is tested in a forecasting setting for constraining ash dispersion by satellite observations. The sensitivity of a priori and satellite uncertainties is tested for the a posteriori term. The a posteriori is also tested with four different assumptions affecting the retrieved ash satellite data. In forecasting mode, the a posteriori changes after only 12 h of satellite observations and produces better forecasts than a priori.