Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Apr 2025
Research article |
| 23 Apr 2025
| 23 Apr 2025
Surface temperature effects of recent reductions in shipping SO2 emissions are within internal variability
Duncan Watson-Parris
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Scripps Institution of Oceanography and Halıcıoğlu Data Science Institute, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
Laura J. Wilcox
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Camilla W. Stjern
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Robert J. Allen
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA, USA
Geeta Persad
Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
Massimo A. Bollasina
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Annica M. L. Ekman
Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Carley E. Iles
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Manoj Joshi
Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
Marianne T. Lund
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Daniel McCoy
Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, USA
Daniel M. Westervelt
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Climate School, New York, NY, USA
Andrew I. L. Williams
Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
Bjørn H. Samset
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
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Mariya Petrenko, Ralph Kahn, Mian Chin, Susanne E. Bauer, Tommi Bergman, Huisheng Bian, Gabriele Curci, Ben Johnson, Johannes W. Kaiser, Zak Kipling, Harri Kokkola, Xiaohong Liu, Keren Mezuman, Tero Mielonen, Gunnar Myhre, Xiaohua Pan, Anna Protonotariou, Samuel Remy, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Hailong Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Kai Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1545–1567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1545-2025, 2025
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We compared smoke plume simulations from 11 global models to each other and to satellite smoke amount observations aimed at constraining smoke source strength. In regions where plumes are thick and background aerosol is low, models and satellites compare well. However, the input emission inventory tends to underestimate in many places, and particle property and loss rate assumptions vary enormously among models, causing uncertainties that require systematic in situ measurements to resolve.
Maria R. Russo, Sadie L. Bartholomew, David Hassell, Alex M. Mason, Erica Neininger, A. James Perman, David A. J. Sproson, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Nathan Luke Abraham
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 181–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, 2025
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Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12545–12555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12545-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12545-2023, 2023
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8749–8768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8749-2023, 2023
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1330, 2022
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We show that potential structural deficiencies in a climate model can be exposed by comprehensively exploring its parametric uncertainty, and that these deficiencies limit how much the model uncertainty can be reduced through observational constraint. Combined consideration of parametric and structural uncertainties provides a future pathway towards building models that have greater physical realism and lower uncertainty.
Haochi Che, Philip Stier, Duncan Watson-Parris, Hamish Gordon, and Lucia Deaconu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10789–10807, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10789-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10789-2022, 2022
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Cynthia H. Whaley, Rashed Mahmood, Knut von Salzen, Barbara Winter, Sabine Eckhardt, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Silvia Becagli, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Sujay Manish Damani, Xinyi Dong, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Fabio Giardi, Wanmin Gong, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Lin Huang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Srinath Krishnan, Zbigniew Klimont, Thomas Kühn, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Andreas Massling, Dirk Olivié, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Yiran Peng, David A. Plummer, Olga Popovicheva, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Maria Sand, Laura N. Saunders, Julia Schmale, Sangeeta Sharma, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Henrik Skov, Fumikazu Taketani, Manu A. Thomas, Rita Traversi, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven Turnock, Vito Vitale, Kaley A. Walker, Minqi Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Tahya Weiss-Gibbons
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5775–5828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022, 2022
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Matthew W. Christensen, Andrew Gettelman, Jan Cermak, Guy Dagan, Michael Diamond, Alyson Douglas, Graham Feingold, Franziska Glassmeier, Tom Goren, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Edward Gryspeerdt, Ralph Kahn, Zhanqing Li, Po-Lun Ma, Florent Malavelle, Isabel L. McCoy, Daniel T. McCoy, Greg McFarquhar, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Sandip Pal, Anna Possner, Adam Povey, Johannes Quaas, Daniel Rosenfeld, Anja Schmidt, Roland Schrödner, Armin Sorooshian, Philip Stier, Velle Toll, Duncan Watson-Parris, Robert Wood, Mingxi Yang, and Tianle Yuan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 641–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-641-2022, 2022
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Duncan Watson-Parris, Andrew Williams, Lucia Deaconu, and Philip Stier
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7659–7672, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7659-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7659-2021, 2021
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Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Jonas Gliß, Susanne E. Bauer, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Paul Ginoux, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne T. Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Twan van Noije, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Remy, Michael Schulz, Philip Stier, Camilla W. Stjern, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15929–15947, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, 2021
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Absorption of shortwave radiation by aerosols can modify precipitation and clouds but is poorly constrained in models. A total of 15 different aerosol models from AeroCom phase III have reported total aerosol absorption, and for the first time, 11 of these models have reported in a consistent experiment the contributions to absorption from black carbon, dust, and organic aerosol. Here, we document the model diversity in aerosol absorption.
Shipeng Zhang, Philip Stier, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10179–10197, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10179-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10179-2021, 2021
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The relationship between aerosol-induced changes in atmospheric energetics and precipitation responses across different scales is studied in terms of fast (radiatively or microphysically mediated) and slow (temperature-mediated) responses. We introduced a method to decompose rainfall changes into contributions from clouds, aerosols, and clear–clean sky from an energetic perspective. It provides a way to better interpret and quantify the precipitation changes caused by aerosol perturbations.
Jim M. Haywood, Steven J. Abel, Paul A. Barrett, Nicolas Bellouin, Alan Blyth, Keith N. Bower, Melissa Brooks, Ken Carslaw, Haochi Che, Hugh Coe, Michael I. Cotterell, Ian Crawford, Zhiqiang Cui, Nicholas Davies, Beth Dingley, Paul Field, Paola Formenti, Hamish Gordon, Martin de Graaf, Ross Herbert, Ben Johnson, Anthony C. Jones, Justin M. Langridge, Florent Malavelle, Daniel G. Partridge, Fanny Peers, Jens Redemann, Philip Stier, Kate Szpek, Jonathan W. Taylor, Duncan Watson-Parris, Robert Wood, Huihui Wu, and Paquita Zuidema
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1049–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1049-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1049-2021, 2021
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Every year, the seasonal cycle of biomass burning from agricultural practices in Africa creates a huge plume of smoke that travels many thousands of kilometres over the Atlantic Ocean. This study provides an overview of a measurement campaign called the cloud–aerosol–radiation interaction and forcing for year 2017 (CLARIFY-2017) and documents the rationale, deployment strategy, observations, and key results from the campaign which utilized the heavily equipped FAAM atmospheric research aircraft.
Haochi Che, Philip Stier, Hamish Gordon, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Lucia Deaconu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17-2021, 2021
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The south-eastern Atlantic is semi-permanently covered by some of the largest stratocumulus clouds and is influenced by one-third of the biomass burning emissions from African fires. A UKEMS1 model simulation shows that the absorption effect of biomass burning aerosols is the most significant on clouds and radiation. The dominate cooling and rapid adjustments induced by the radiative effects of biomass burning aerosols result in an overall cooling in the south-eastern Atlantic.
Max Heikenfeld, Peter J. Marinescu, Matthew Christensen, Duncan Watson-Parris, Fabian Senf, Susan C. van den Heever, and Philip Stier
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4551–4570, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4551-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4551-2019, 2019
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We present tobac (Tracking and Object-Based Analysis of Clouds), a newly developed framework for tracking and analysing clouds in different types of datasets. It provides a flexible new way to include the evolution of individual clouds in a wide range of analyses. It is developed as a community project to provide a common basis for the inclusion of existing tracking algorithms and the development of new analyses that involve tracking clouds and other features in geoscientific research.
Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Bjørn H. Samset, Kari Alterskjær, Timothy Andrews, Olivier Boucher, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Piers M. Forster, Matthew Kasoar, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas B. Richardson, Dilshad Shawki, Drew Shindell, Keith P. Shine, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12887–12899, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, 2019
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Different greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2) and aerosols (e.g. black carbon) impact the Earth’s water cycle differently. Here we investigate how various gases and particles impact atmospheric water vapour and its lifetime, i.e., the average number of days that water vapour stays in the atmosphere after evaporation and before precipitation. We find that this lifetime could increase substantially by the end of this century, indicating that important changes in precipitation patterns are excepted.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Nick Schutgens, Carly Reddington, Kirsty J. Pringle, Dantong Liu, James D. Allan, Hugh Coe, Ken S. Carslaw, and Philip Stier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11765–11790, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11765-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11765-2019, 2019
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The vertical distribution of aerosol in the atmosphere affects its ability to act as cloud condensation nuclei and changes the amount of sunlight it absorbs or reflects. Common global measurements of aerosol provide no information about this vertical distribution. Using a global collection of in situ aircraft measurements to compare with an aerosol–climate model (ECHAM-HAM), we explore the key processes controlling this distribution and find that wet removal plays a key role.
George S. Fanourgakis, Maria Kanakidou, Athanasios Nenes, Susanne E. Bauer, Tommi Bergman, Ken S. Carslaw, Alf Grini, Douglas S. Hamilton, Jill S. Johnson, Vlassis A. Karydis, Alf Kirkevåg, John K. Kodros, Ulrike Lohmann, Gan Luo, Risto Makkonen, Hitoshi Matsui, David Neubauer, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Julia Schmale, Philip Stier, Kostas Tsigaridis, Twan van Noije, Hailong Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Yang Yang, Masaru Yoshioka, Nikos Daskalakis, Stefano Decesari, Martin Gysel-Beer, Nikos Kalivitis, Xiaohong Liu, Natalie M. Mahowald, Stelios Myriokefalitakis, Roland Schrödner, Maria Sfakianaki, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Mingxuan Wu, and Fangqun Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8591–8617, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8591-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8591-2019, 2019
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Effects of aerosols on clouds are important for climate studies but are among the largest uncertainties in climate projections. This study evaluates the skill of global models to simulate aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNCs). Model results show reduced spread in CDNC compared to CCN due to the negative correlation between the sensitivities of CDNC to aerosol number concentration (air pollution) and updraft velocity (atmospheric dynamics).
Ina Tegen, David Neubauer, Sylvaine Ferrachat, Colombe Siegenthaler-Le Drian, Isabelle Bey, Nick Schutgens, Philip Stier, Duncan Watson-Parris, Tanja Stanelle, Hauke Schmidt, Sebastian Rast, Harri Kokkola, Martin Schultz, Sabine Schroeder, Nikos Daskalakis, Stefan Barthel, Bernd Heinold, and Ulrike Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1643–1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1643-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1643-2019, 2019
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We describe a new version of the aerosol–climate model ECHAM–HAM and show tests of the model performance by comparing different aspects of the aerosol distribution with different datasets. The updated version of HAM contains improved descriptions of aerosol processes, including updated emission fields and cloud processes. While there are regional deviations between the model and observations, the model performs well overall.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Nick Schutgens, Nicholas Cook, Zak Kipling, Philip Kershaw, Edward Gryspeerdt, Bryan Lawrence, and Philip Stier
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3093–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3093-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3093-2016, 2016
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In this paper we describe CIS, a new command line tool for the easy visualization, analysis and comparison of a wide variety of gridded and ungridded data sets used in Earth sciences. Users can now use a single tool to not only view plots of satellite, aircraft, station or model data, but also bring them onto the same spatio-temporal sampling. This allows robust, quantitative comparisons to be made easily. CIS is an open-source project and welcomes input from the community.
Paul T. Griffiths, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Michael Prather, Alex Archibald, Florence Brown, Makoto Deushi, William Collins, Stephanie Fiedler, Naga Oshima, Lee T. Murray, Bjørn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Steven Turnock, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Paul J. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8289–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, 2025
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The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) aimed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. We review its contribution to AR6 (Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and the wider understanding of the role of these species in climate and climate change. We identify challenges and provide recommendations to improve the utility and uptake of climate model data, detailed summary tables of CMIP6 models, experiments, and emergent diagnostics.
Tuomas Naakka, Daniel Köhler, Kalle Nordling, Petri Räisänen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Bjørn H. Samset, Victoria A. Sinclair, Jennie L. Thomas, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8127–8145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, 2025
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The effects of warmer sea surface temperatures and decreasing sea ice cover on polar climates have been studied using four climate models with identical prescribed changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover. The models predict similar changes in air temperature and precipitation in the polar regions in a warmer climate with less sea ice. However, the models disagree on how the atmospheric circulation, i.e. the large-scale winds, will change with warmer temperatures and less sea ice.
Ross J. Herbert, Andrew I. L. Williams, Philipp Weiss, Duncan Watson-Parris, Elisabeth Dingley, Daniel Klocke, and Philip Stier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7789–7814, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7789-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7789-2025, 2025
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Clouds exist at scales that climate models struggle to represent, limiting our knowledge of how climate change may impact clouds. Here we use a new kilometer-scale global model representing an important step towards the necessary scale. We focus on how aerosol particles modify clouds, radiation, and precipitation. We find the magnitude and manner of responses tend to vary from region to region, highlighting the potential of global kilometer-scale simulations and a need to represent aerosols in climate models.
Feifei Luo, Bjørn H. Samset, Camilla W. Stjern, Manoj Joshi, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Wei Hua, and Shuanglin Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7647–7667, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7647-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7647-2025, 2025
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Black carbon (BC) aerosol is emitted from the incomplete combustion of biomass and fossil fuels. We found that Asian BC leads to strong local cooling and drying. Reductions in precipitation primarily depend on the thermodynamic effects due to solar radiation absorption by BC. The combined thermodynamic and dynamic effects shape the spatial pattern of precipitation responses to Asian BC. These results help us further understand the impact of emissions of anthropogenic aerosols on Asian climate.
Nina Schuhen, Carley E. Iles, Marit Sandstad, Viktor Ananiev, and Jana Sillmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3331, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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As climate changes, extremes are becoming increasingly frequent. We investigate the time of emergence for a large range of different extremes, meaning the earliest time when a significant change in these extremes can be detected beyond natural variability, whether in the past or in the future. The results based on 21 global climate models show considerable differences between regions, types of indices and emissions scenarios, as well as between temperature and precipitation extremes.
Beth Dingley, James A. Anstey, Marta Abalos, Carsten Abraham, Tommi Bergman, Lisa Bock, Sonya Fiddes, Birgit Hassler, Ryan J. Kramer, Fei Luo, Fiona M. O'Connor, Petr Šácha, Isla R. Simpson, Laura J. Wilcox, and Mark D. Zelinka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3189, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3189, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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This manuscript defines as a list of variables and scientific opportunities which are requested from the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track to address open atmospheric science questions. The list reflects the output of a large public community engagement effort, coordinated across autumn 2025 through to summer 2025.
Wah Kin Michael Lai, Jon Robson, Laura Wilcox, Nick Dunstone, and Rowan Sutton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2598, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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In a climate model at two different resolutions, anthropogenic aerosols induce a fast cooling followed by a delayed warming in the subpolar North Atlantic. The delayed warming is stronger at higher resolution due to a stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) response. This difference is due to the lower resolution model having more sea ice which insulates the ocean. This result show that the North Atlantic response to external forcing is sensitive to regional differences.
Yusuf Bhatti, Duncan Watson-Parris, Leighton Regayre, Hailing Jia, David Neubauer, Ulas Im, Carl Svenhag, Nick Schutgens, Athanasios Tsikerdekis, Athanasios Nenes, Irfan Muhammed, Bastiaan van Diedenhoven, Ardit Arifi, Guangliang Fu, and Otto Hasekamp
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2848, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2848, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Aerosols (small airborne particles) impact Earth's climate, but their extent is unknown. By running climate model simulations and emulating millions of additional variants with different settings, we found that natural emissions like sea spray and sulfur are key sources of uncertainty in climate predictions. Our work shows that understanding these natural processes better can help improve climate models and make future climate projections more accurate.
Yann Cohen, Didier Hauglustaine, Nicolas Bellouin, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Sigrun Matthes, Agnieszka Skowron, Robin Thor, Ulrich Bundke, Andreas Petzold, Susanne Rohs, Valérie Thouret, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5793–5836, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5793-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5793-2025, 2025
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The chemical composition of the atmosphere near the tropopause is a key parameter for evaluating the climate impact of subsonic aviation pollutants. This study uses in situ data collected aboard passenger aircraft to assess the ability of four chemistry–climate models to reproduce (bi-)decadal climatologies of ozone, carbon monoxide, water vapour, and reactive nitrogen in this region. The models reproduce the very distinct ozone seasonality in the upper troposphere and in the lower stratosphere well.
Ci Song, Daniel T. McCoy, Isabel L. McCoy, Hunter Brown, Andrew Gettelman, Trude Eidhammer, and Donifan Barahona
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2009, 2025
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This study examines how aerosols from human activities alter cloud microphysical properties. Airborne observations from a field campaign are used to constrain an ensemble of global model configurations and their associated cloud property changes. Results show that airborne in-situ measurements of aerosol and cloud properties do provide insight into global changes in cloud microphysics but are sensitive to uncertainties in both airborne measurements and Earth system model emulators.
Gopalakrishna Pillai Gopikrishnan, Daniel M. Westervelt, and Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1056, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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This study examines the inverse effect of aerosol surface area and particulate matter (PM) reduction on air quality and atmospheric chemistry, particularly on surface ozone levels. Aerosols act as surfaces for the uptake of hydroxyl radicals (HO2), which are essential for controlling ozone formation. Reducing aerosols and PM may enhance surface ozone formation, thus worsening air quality. However, further efforts to decrease NOx emissions could mitigate this rise in surface ozone levels.
Rahul Ranjan, Liine Heikkinen, Lauri R. Ahonen, Krista Luoma, Paul Bowen, Tuukka Petäjä, Annica M. L. Ekman, Daniel G. Partridge, and Ilona Riipinen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1602, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1602, 2025
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We use multi-year measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) at a boreal forest site to inversely infer size-resolved aerosol chemical composition. We find that inorganic species are more enriched in the larger end (accumulation mode) of the sub-micron aerosol population while organics dominate the smaller end (Aitken mode). Our approach demonstrates the potential of long-term CCN measurements to infer size-resolved chemical composition of sub-micron aerosol.
August Mikkelsen, Daniel T. McCoy, Trude Eidhammer, Andrew Gettelman, Ci Song, Hamish Gordon, and Isabel L. McCoy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4547–4570, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4547-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4547-2025, 2025
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Whether increased aerosol increases or decreases liquid cloud mass has been a longstanding question. Observed correlations suggest that aerosols thin liquid cloud, but we are able to show that observations were consistent with an increase in liquid cloud in response to aerosols by leveraging a model where causality could be traced.
Robert James Allen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-32, 2025
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CMIP6 models are analyzed to quantify the biogeophysical (non-carbon cycle) and biogeochemical (enhanced carbon storage) effects of carbon fertilization at the time of CO2 quadrupling. The biogeophysical effects lead to relatively weak warming (0.16 ± 0.09 K ) largely due to decreases in surface latent heat flux associated with reduced canopy transpiration. Biogeochemical cooling associated with enhanced land carbon storage dominates at -1.38 K (-1.92 to -0.84 K).
Sini Talvinen, Paul Kim, Emanuele Tovazzi, Eemeli Holopainen, Roxana Cremer, Thomas Kühn, Harri Kokkola, Zak Kipling, David Neubauer, João C. Teixeira, Alistair Sellar, Duncan Watson-Parris, Yang Yang, Jialei Zhu, Srinath Krishnan, Annele Virtanen, and Daniel G. Partridge
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-721, 2025
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Climate models struggle to predict how clouds and aerosols interact, affecting Earth’s energy balance. This study compares models to observations to see how they describe effects of clouds and rain on aerosols. While both models show similar overall trends, seasonal differences emerged. These, however, align with differences in key variables participating in cloud formation. The study provides tools to improve the representation of aerosol-cloud interactions in climate models.
Joe Adabouk Amooli, Marianne T. Lund, Sourangsu Chowdhury, Gunnar Myhre, Ane N. Johansen, Bjørn H. Samset, and Daniel M. Westervelt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-948, 2025
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We analyze various projections of African aerosol emissions and their potential impacts on climate and public health. We find that future emissions vary widely across emission projections, with differences in sectoral emission distributions. Using the Oslo chemical transport model, we show that air pollution exposure in some regions of Africa could increase significantly by 2050, increasing pollution-related deaths, with most scenarios projecting aerosol-induced warming over sub-Saharan Africa.
Dominic Heslin-Rees, Peter Tunved, Diego Aliaga, Janne Lampilahti, Ilona Riipinen, Annica Ekman, Ki-Tae Park, Martina Mazzini, Stefania Gilardoni, Roseline Thakur, Kihong Park, Young Jun Yoon, Kitack Lee, Mikko Sipilä, Mauro Mazzola, and Radovan Krejci
Aerosol Research Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-2025-11, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-2025-11, 2025
Preprint under review for AR
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New particles form in the atmosphere and can influence the climate. We studied Arctic new particle formation (NPF) from 2022 to 2024 at the Zeppelin Observatory, on Svalbard. NPF occurs from April to November, peaking in late spring as sunlight increases. Some particles measured on-site grow large enough to seed clouds. Sunlight and existing aerosol particles strongly impact the likelihood of NPF, which mainly originates from marine regions, particularly the Greenland Sea.
Siyu Meng, Xun Gong, Benjamin Webber, Manoj Joshi, Xiaokun Ding, Xiang Gong, Mingliang Gu, and Huiwang Gao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-13, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-13, 2025
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The North Pacific Ocean Desert (NPOD), with low phytoplankton biomass, covers about 40 % of the North Pacific. The variations in NPOD seasonal cycle, which have a greater impact than its annual mean changes, are influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation from 1998 to 2021. However, from 2021 to 2100, a weakened NPOD seasonal cycle is expected due to climate change. These changes in NPOD seasonal cycle could affect fisheries and marine ecosystems.
George Jordan, Florent Malavelle, Jim Haywood, Ying Chen, Ben Johnson, Daniel Partridge, Amy Peace, Eliza Duncan, Duncan Watson-Parris, David Neubauer, Anton Laakso, Martine Michou, and Pierre Nabat
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-835, 2025
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The 2014–15 Holuhraun eruption created a vast aerosol plume that acted as a natural experiment to assess how well climate models capture changes in cloud properties due to increased aerosol. We find that the models accurately represent the observed shift to smaller, more numerous cloud droplets. However, the models diverge in their aerosol induced changes to large-scale cloud properties, particularly cloud liquid water content. Our study shows that Holuhraun had a cooling effect on the Earth.
Peer Nowack and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2365–2384, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2365-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2365-2025, 2025
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In our article, we review uncertainties in global climate change projections and current methods using Earth observations as constraints, which is crucial for climate risk assessments and for informing society. We then discuss how machine learning can advance the field, discussing recent work that provides potentially stronger and more robust links between observed data and future climate projections. We further discuss the challenges of applying machine learning to climate science.
Mingxuan Wu, Hailong Wang, Zheng Lu, Xiaohong Liu, Huisheng Bian, David Cohen, Yan Feng, Mian Chin, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Vlassis A. Karydis, Marianne T. Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Andrea Pozzer, Michael Schulz, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Shaocheng Xie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-235, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-235, 2025
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A key challenge in simulating the lifecycle of nitrate aerosol in global climate models is to accurately represent mass size distribution of nitrate aerosol, which lacks sufficient observational constraints. We found that most climate models underestimate the mass fraction of fine-mode nitrate at surface in all regions. Our study highlights the importance of gas-aerosol partitioning parameterization and simulation of dust and sea salt in correctly simulating mass size distribution of nitrate.
Kalle Nordling, Nora L. S. Fahrenbach, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1659–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025, 2025
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People experience daily weather, not changes in monthly averages. We investigate the likelihood of events, which occurred once every 10 years in the pre-industrial era. We analyze how summertime precipitation and daily maximum temperature events evolve. Our focus is on understanding the role of day-to-day variability in the change in the number of extreme weather days. We find that in most regions, a change in variability is the primary driver for change in summertime extreme precipitation.
Mariya Petrenko, Ralph Kahn, Mian Chin, Susanne E. Bauer, Tommi Bergman, Huisheng Bian, Gabriele Curci, Ben Johnson, Johannes W. Kaiser, Zak Kipling, Harri Kokkola, Xiaohong Liu, Keren Mezuman, Tero Mielonen, Gunnar Myhre, Xiaohua Pan, Anna Protonotariou, Samuel Remy, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Hailong Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Kai Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1545–1567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1545-2025, 2025
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We compared smoke plume simulations from 11 global models to each other and to satellite smoke amount observations aimed at constraining smoke source strength. In regions where plumes are thick and background aerosol is low, models and satellites compare well. However, the input emission inventory tends to underestimate in many places, and particle property and loss rate assumptions vary enormously among models, causing uncertainties that require systematic in situ measurements to resolve.
Maria R. Russo, Sadie L. Bartholomew, David Hassell, Alex M. Mason, Erica Neininger, A. James Perman, David A. J. Sproson, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Nathan Luke Abraham
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 181–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, 2025
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Observational data and modelling capabilities have expanded in recent years, but there are still barriers preventing these two data sources from being used in synergy. Proper comparison requires generating, storing, and handling a large amount of data. This work describes the first step in the development of a new set of software tools, the VISION toolkit, which can enable the easy and efficient integration of observational and model data required for model evaluation.
Ci Song, Daniel McCoy, Andrea Molod, and Donifan Barahona
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4108, 2025
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The uncertainty in how clouds respond to aerosols limits our ability to predict future warming. This study uses a global reanalysis data, GiOcean, which includes a detailed treatment of cloud microphysics to represent interactions between aerosols and clouds. We evaluate the response of warm clouds to aerosols in GiOcean by comparing variables important for cloud properties from GiOcean with available spaceborne remote sensing observations.
Luís Filipe Escusa dos Santos, Hannah C. Frostenberg, Alejandro Baró Pérez, Annica M. L. Ekman, Luisa Ickes, and Erik S. Thomson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 119–142, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-119-2025, 2025
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The Arctic is experiencing enhanced surface warming. The observed decline in Arctic sea-ice extent is projected to lead to an increase in Arctic shipping activity, which may lead to further climatic feedbacks. Using an atmospheric model and results from marine engine experiments that focused on fuel sulfur content reduction and exhaust wet scrubbing, we investigate how ship exhaust particles influence the properties of Arctic clouds. Implications for radiative surface processes are discussed.
Alcide Zhao, Laura J. Wilcox, and Claire L. Ryder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13385–13402, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13385-2024, 2024
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Climate models include desert dust aerosols, which cause atmospheric heating and can change circulation patterns. We assess the effect of dust on the Indian and east Asian summer monsoons through multi-model experiments isolating the effect of dust in current climate models for the first time. Dust atmospheric heating results in a southward shift of western Pacific equatorial rainfall and an enhanced Indian summer monsoon. This shows the importance of accurate dust representation in models.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
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We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Trude Eidhammer, Andrew Gettelman, Katherine Thayer-Calder, Duncan Watson-Parris, Gregory Elsaesser, Hugh Morrison, Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Ci Song, and Daniel McCoy
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7835–7853, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, 2024
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We describe a dataset where 45 parameters related to cloud processes in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) are perturbed. Three sets of perturbed parameter ensembles (263 members) were created: current climate, preindustrial aerosol loading and future climate with sea surface temperature increased by 4 K.
Catherine Anne Toolan, Joe Adabouk Amooli, Laura J. Wilcox, Bjørn H. Samset, Andrew G. Turner, and Daniel M. Westervelt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3057, 2024
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Our research explores how well air pollution and rainfall patterns in Africa are represented in current climate models, by comparing model data to observations from 1981 to 2023. While most models capture seasonal air quality changes well, they struggle to replicate the distribution of non-dust pollutants and certain rainfall patterns, especially over east Africa. Improving these models is crucial for better climate predictions and preparing for future risks.
Robert J. Allen, Xueying Zhao, Cynthia A. Randles, Ryan J. Kramer, Bjørn H. Samset, and Christopher J. Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11207–11226, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024, 2024
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Present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes 28% (7–55%) of the surface warming associated with its longwave absorption. The precipitation increase associated with the longwave radiative effects of the present-day methane perturbation is also muted by shortwave absorption but not significantly so. Methane shortwave absorption also impacts the magnitude of its climate feedback parameter, largely through the cloud feedback.
Zixuan Jia, Massimo A. Bollasina, Wenjun Zhang, and Ying Xiang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2770, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2770, 2024
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Using multi-model mean data from regional aerosol perturbation experiments, we find that increased Asian sulfate aerosols strengthen the link between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon. In coupled simulations, aerosol-induced broad cooling increases ENSO amplitude by affecting the tropical Pacific mean state, contributing to increase monsoon interannual variability. These results provide important implications to reduce uncertainties in future projections of regional extreme variability.
Marit Sandstad, Borgar Aamaas, Ane Nordlie Johansen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Glen Philip Peters, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Benjamin Mark Sanderson, and Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6589–6625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, 2024
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The CICERO-SCM has existed as a Fortran model since 1999 that calculates the radiative forcing and concentrations from emissions and is an upwelling diffusion energy balance model of the ocean that calculates temperature change. In this paper, we describe an updated version ported to Python and publicly available at https://github.com/ciceroOslo/ciceroscm (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10548720). This version contains functionality for parallel runs and automatic calibration.
Alkiviadis Kalisoras, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Dimitris Akritidis, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Chaincy Kuo, Sophie Szopa, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, David Neubauer, Naga Oshima, Jane Mulcahy, Larry W. Horowitz, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7837–7872, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024, 2024
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Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a metric for estimating how human activities and natural agents change the energy flow into and out of the Earth’s climate system. We investigate the anthropogenic aerosol ERF, and we estimate the contribution of individual processes to the total ERF using simulations from Earth system models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our findings highlight that aerosol–cloud interactions drive ERF variability during the last 150 years.
Zhen Liu, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Laura J. Wilcox
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7227–7252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, 2024
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The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model-simulated spatio-temporal variability in the climatological monsoon precipitation across Asia, which critically modulates the efficacy of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, the predominant driver of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South Asia and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response.
James L. Gomez, Robert J. Allen, and King-Fai Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6937–6963, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6937-2024, 2024
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Wildfires in California (CA) have grown very large during the past 20 years. These fires emit sunlight-absorbing aerosols. Analyzing observational data, our study finds that aerosols emitted from large fires in northern CA spread throughout CA and Nevada and heat the atmosphere. This heating is consistent with larger-than-normal temperatures and dry conditions. Further study is needed to determine how much the aerosols heat the atmosphere and whether they are drying the atmosphere as well.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
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The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Alejandro Baró Pérez, Michael S. Diamond, Frida A.-M. Bender, Abhay Devasthale, Matthias Schwarz, Julien Savre, Juha Tonttila, Harri Kokkola, Hyunho Lee, David Painemal, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4591–4610, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4591-2024, 2024
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We use a numerical model to study interactions between humid light-absorbing aerosol plumes, clouds, and radiation over the southeast Atlantic. We find that the warming produced by the aerosols reduces cloud cover, especially in highly polluted situations. Aerosol impacts on drizzle play a minor role. However, aerosol effects on cloud reflectivity and moisture-induced changes in cloud cover dominate the climatic response and lead to an overall cooling by the biomass burning plumes.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
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Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
William J. Dow, Christine M. McKenna, Manoj M. Joshi, Adam T. Blaker, Richard Rigby, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 357–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-357-2024, 2024
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Changes to sea surface temperatures in the extratropical North Pacific are driven partly by patterns of local atmospheric circulation, such as the Aleutian Low. We show that an intensification of the Aleutian Low could contribute to small changes in temperatures across the equatorial Pacific via the initiation of two mechanisms. The effect, although significant, is unlikely to explain fully the recently observed multi-year shift of a pattern of climate variability across the wider Pacific.
Hauke Schmidt, Sebastian Rast, Jiawei Bao, Amrit Cassim, Shih-Wei Fang, Diego Jimenez-de la Cuesta, Paul Keil, Lukas Kluft, Clarissa Kroll, Theresa Lang, Ulrike Niemeier, Andrea Schneidereit, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1563–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1563-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1563-2024, 2024
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A recent development in numerical simulations of the global atmosphere is the increase in horizontal resolution to grid spacings of a few kilometers. However, the vertical grid spacing of these models has not been reduced at the same rate as the horizontal grid spacing. Here, we assess the effects of much finer vertical grid spacings, in particular the impacts on cloud quantities and the atmospheric energy balance.
Dominic Heslin-Rees, Peter Tunved, Johan Ström, Roxana Cremer, Paul Zieger, Ilona Riipinen, Annica M. L. Ekman, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, and Radovan Krejci
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2059–2075, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2059-2024, 2024
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Light-absorbing atmospheric particles (e.g. black carbon – BC) exert a warming effect on the Arctic climate. We show that the amount of particle light absorption decreased from 2002 to 2023. We conclude that in addition to reductions in emissions of BC, wet removal plays a role in the long-term reduction of BC in the Arctic, given the increase in surface precipitation experienced by air masses arriving at the site. The potential impact of biomass burning events is shown to have increased.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
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Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
George Jordan, Florent Malavelle, Ying Chen, Amy Peace, Eliza Duncan, Daniel G. Partridge, Paul Kim, Duncan Watson-Parris, Toshihiko Takemura, David Neubauer, Gunnar Myhre, Ragnhild Skeie, Anton Laakso, and James Haywood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1939–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1939-2024, 2024
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The 2014–15 Holuhraun eruption caused a huge aerosol plume in an otherwise unpolluted region, providing a chance to study how aerosol alters cloud properties. This two-part study uses observations and models to quantify this relationship’s impact on the Earth’s energy budget. Part 1 suggests the models capture the observed spatial and chemical evolution of the plume, yet no model plume is exact. Understanding these differences is key for Part 2, where changes to cloud properties are explored.
Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Peter R. Colarco, Eric C. Apel, Donald R. Blake, Karl Froyd, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, Jose Jimenez, Pedro Campuzano Jost, Michael Lawler, Mingxu Liu, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Benjamin A. Nault, Joyce E. Penner, Andrew W. Rollins, Gregory Schill, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Hailong Wang, Lu Xu, Kai Zhang, and Jialei Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1717–1741, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1717-2024, 2024
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This work studies sulfur in the remote troposphere at global and seasonal scales using aircraft measurements and multi-model simulations. The goal is to understand the sulfur cycle over remote oceans, spread of model simulations, and observation–model discrepancies. Such an understanding and comparison with real observations are crucial to narrow down the uncertainties in model sulfur simulations and improve understanding of the sulfur cycle in atmospheric air quality, climate, and ecosystems.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
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Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Thomas Wilder, Xiaoming Zhai, David Munday, and Manoj Joshi
Ocean Sci., 19, 1669–1686, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1669-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1669-2023, 2023
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The dissipation rate of eddy energy in current energy budget-based eddy parameterisations is still relatively unconstrained, leading to uncertainties in ocean transport and ocean heat uptake. Here, we derive a dissipation rate due to the interaction of surface winds and eddy currents, a process known to significantly damp ocean eddies. The dissipation rate is quantified using seasonal climatology and displays wide spatial variability, with some of the largest values found in the Southern Ocean.
Peter Manshausen, Duncan Watson-Parris, Matthew W. Christensen, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, and Philip Stier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12545–12555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12545-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12545-2023, 2023
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Aerosol from burning fuel changes cloud properties, e.g., the number of droplets and the content of water. Here, we study how clouds respond to different amounts of shipping aerosol. Droplet numbers increase linearly with increasing aerosol over a broad range until they stop increasing, while the amount of liquid water always increases, independently of emission amount. These changes in cloud properties can make them reflect more or less sunlight, which is important for the earth's climate.
Saroj Kumar Sahu, Poonam Mangaraj, Gufran Beig, Marianne T. Lund, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Pallavi Sahoo, and Ashirbad Mishra
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-310, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-310, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Elevated emission of particulate matter is not limited to urban areas, led to poor air quality across the country. Emission Inventory is the first line of defensive tools for air quality management and understanding and identification of the source of pollutants. The present work is an attempt to develop a high-resolution (~10 km) national inventory of particulate pollutants in India for 2020 using IPCC methodology. The developed dataset is vital piece of information for mitigation strategies.
Leighton A. Regayre, Lucia Deaconu, Daniel P. Grosvenor, David M. H. Sexton, Christopher Symonds, Tom Langton, Duncan Watson-Paris, Jane P. Mulcahy, Kirsty J. Pringle, Mark Richardson, Jill S. Johnson, John W. Rostron, Hamish Gordon, Grenville Lister, Philip Stier, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8749–8768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8749-2023, 2023
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Aerosol forcing of Earth’s energy balance has persisted as a major cause of uncertainty in climate simulations over generations of climate model development. We show that structural deficiencies in a climate model are exposed by comprehensively exploring parametric uncertainty and that these deficiencies limit how much the model uncertainty can be reduced through observational constraint. This provides a future pathway towards building models with greater physical realism and lower uncertainty.
Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Massimo A. Bollasina, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Marianne T. Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O'Donnell, David J. Paynter, Geeta G. Persad, Steven T. Rumbold, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sabine Undorf, and Daniel M. Westervelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4451–4479, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, 2023
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Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional climate change. However, the size of these regional impacts and the way they arise are still uncertain. With large changes in aerosol emissions a possibility over the next few decades, it is important to better quantify the potential role of aerosol in future regional climate change. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project will deliver experiments designed to facilitate this.
Ines Bulatovic, Julien Savre, Michael Tjernström, Caroline Leck, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7033–7055, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7033-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7033-2023, 2023
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We use numerical modeling with detailed cloud microphysics to investigate a low-altitude cloud system consisting of two cloud layers – a type of cloud situation which was commonly observed during the summer of 2018 in the central Arctic (north of 80° N). The model generally reproduces the observed cloud layers and the thermodynamic structure of the lower atmosphere well. The cloud system is maintained unless there are low aerosol number concentrations or high large-scale wind speeds.
Marianne Tronstad Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, and Zbigniew Klimont
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6647–6662, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6647-2023, 2023
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Here we show that differences, in magnitude and trend, between recent global anthropogenic emission inventories have a notable influence on simulated regional abundances of anthropogenic aerosol over the 1990–2019 period. This, in turn, affects estimates of radiative forcing. Our findings form a basis for comparing existing and upcoming studies on anthropogenic aerosols using different emission inventories.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
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We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Manoj Joshi, Robert A. Hall, David P. Stevens, and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 443–455, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-443-2023, 2023
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The 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle arises from variations in the angle of the Moon's orbital plane and affects ocean tides. In this work we use a climate model to examine the effect of this cycle on the ocean, surface, and atmosphere. The timing of anomalies is consistent with the so-called slowdown in global warming and has implications for when global temperatures will exceed 1.5 ℃ above pre-industrial levels. Regional anomalies have implications for seasonal climate areas such as Europe.
Forwood Wiser, Bryan K. Place, Siddhartha Sen, Havala O. T. Pye, Benjamin Yang, Daniel M. Westervelt, Daven K. Henze, Arlene M. Fiore, and V. Faye McNeill
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1801–1821, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1801-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1801-2023, 2023
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We developed a reduced model of atmospheric isoprene oxidation, AMORE-Isoprene 1.0. It was created using a new Automated Model Reduction (AMORE) method designed to simplify complex chemical mechanisms with minimal manual adjustments to the output. AMORE-Isoprene 1.0 has improved accuracy and similar size to other reduced isoprene mechanisms. When included in the CRACMM mechanism, it improved the accuracy of EPA’s CMAQ model predictions for the northeastern USA compared to observations.
Geeta G. Persad
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3435–3452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3435-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3435-2023, 2023
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Human-induced aerosol pollution has major impacts on both local and global precipitation. This study demonstrates using a global climate model that both the strength and localization of aerosols' precipitation impacts are highly dependent on which region the aerosols are emitted from. The findings highlight that the geographic distribution of human-induced aerosol emissions must be accounted for when quantifying their influence on global precipitation.
Nora L. S. Fahrenbach and Massimo A. Bollasina
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 877–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023, 2023
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We studied the monthly-scale climate response to COVID-19 aerosol emission reductions during January–May 2020 using climate models. Our results show global temperature and rainfall anomalies driven by circulation changes. The climate patterns reverse polarity from JF to MAM due to a shift in the main SO2 reduction region from China to India. This real-life example of rapid climate adjustments to abrupt, regional aerosol emission reduction has large implications for future climate projections.
Jarmo S. Kikstra, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Christopher J. Smith, Jared Lewis, Robin D. Lamboll, Edward Byers, Marit Sandstad, Malte Meinshausen, Matthew J. Gidden, Joeri Rogelj, Elmar Kriegler, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura Wienpahl, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Piers M. Forster, Andy Reisinger, Roberto Schaeffer, and Keywan Riahi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9075–9109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, 2022
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Assessing hundreds or thousands of emission scenarios in terms of their global mean temperature implications requires standardised procedures of infilling, harmonisation, and probabilistic temperature assessments. We here present the open-source
climate-assessmentworkflow that was used in the IPCC AR6 Working Group III report. The paper provides key insight for anyone wishing to understand the assessment of climate outcomes of mitigation pathways in the context of the Paris Agreement.
Leighton A. Regayre, Lucia Deaconu, Daniel P. Grosvenor, David Sexton, Christopher C. Symonds, Tom Langton, Duncan Watson-Paris, Jane P. Mulcahy, Kirsty J. Pringle, Mark Richardson, Jill S. Johnson, John Rostron, Hamish Gordon, Grenville Lister, Philip Stier, and Ken S. Carslaw
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1330, 2022
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We show that potential structural deficiencies in a climate model can be exposed by comprehensively exploring its parametric uncertainty, and that these deficiencies limit how much the model uncertainty can be reduced through observational constraint. Combined consideration of parametric and structural uncertainties provides a future pathway towards building models that have greater physical realism and lower uncertainty.
Haochi Che, Philip Stier, Duncan Watson-Parris, Hamish Gordon, and Lucia Deaconu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10789–10807, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10789-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10789-2022, 2022
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Extensive stratocumulus clouds over the south-eastern Atlantic (SEA) can lead to a cooling effect on the climate. A key pathway by which aerosols affect cloud properties is by acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Here, we investigated the source attribution of CCN in the SEA as well as the cloud responses. Our results show that aerosol nucleation contributes most to CCN in the marine boundary layer. In terms of emissions, anthropogenic sources contribute most to the CCN and cloud droplets.
Edward Gryspeerdt, Daniel T. McCoy, Ewan Crosbie, Richard H. Moore, Graeme J. Nott, David Painemal, Jennifer Small-Griswold, Armin Sorooshian, and Luke Ziemba
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3875–3892, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3875-2022, 2022
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Droplet number concentration is a key property of clouds, influencing a variety of cloud processes. It is also used for estimating the cloud response to aerosols. The satellite retrieval depends on a number of assumptions – different sampling strategies are used to select cases where these assumptions are most likely to hold. Here we investigate the impact of these strategies on the agreement with in situ data, the droplet number climatology and estimates of the indirect radiative forcing.
Anne Sophie Daloz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Priscilla Mooney, Susanna Strada, Diana Rechid, Edouard L. Davin, Eleni Katragkou, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Michal Belda, Tomas Halenka, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Peter Hoffmann, Daniela C. A. Lima, Ronny Meier, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Toelle, and Marianne T. Lund
The Cryosphere, 16, 2403–2419, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2403-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2403-2022, 2022
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Snow plays a major role in the regulation of the Earth's surface temperature. Together with climate change, rising temperatures are already altering snow in many ways. In this context, it is crucial to better understand the ability of climate models to represent snow and snow processes. This work focuses on Europe and shows that the melting season in spring still represents a challenge for climate models and that more work is needed to accurately simulate snow–atmosphere interactions.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Rashed Mahmood, Knut von Salzen, Barbara Winter, Sabine Eckhardt, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Silvia Becagli, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Sujay Manish Damani, Xinyi Dong, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Fabio Giardi, Wanmin Gong, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Lin Huang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Srinath Krishnan, Zbigniew Klimont, Thomas Kühn, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Andreas Massling, Dirk Olivié, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Yiran Peng, David A. Plummer, Olga Popovicheva, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Maria Sand, Laura N. Saunders, Julia Schmale, Sangeeta Sharma, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Henrik Skov, Fumikazu Taketani, Manu A. Thomas, Rita Traversi, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven Turnock, Vito Vitale, Kaley A. Walker, Minqi Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Tahya Weiss-Gibbons
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5775–5828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022, 2022
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Air pollutants, like ozone and soot, play a role in both global warming and air quality. Atmospheric models are often used to provide information to policy makers about current and future conditions under different emissions scenarios. In order to have confidence in those simulations, in this study we compare simulated air pollution from 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric models to measured air pollution in order to assess how well the models perform.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
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The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Priscilla A. Mooney, Diana Rechid, Edouard L. Davin, Eleni Katragkou, Natalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Anne Sophie Daloz, Peter Hoffmann, Daniela C. A. Lima, Ronny Meier, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Susanna Strada, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Toelle, and Marianne T. Lund
The Cryosphere, 16, 1383–1397, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1383-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1383-2022, 2022
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We use multiple regional climate models to show that afforestation in sub-polar and alpine regions reduces the radiative impact of snow albedo on the atmosphere, reduces snow cover, and delays the start of the snowmelt season. This is important for local communities that are highly reliant on snowpack for water resources and winter tourism. However, models disagree on the amount of change particularly when snow is melting. This shows that more research is needed on snow–vegetation interactions.
Mathew Sebastian, Sobhan Kumar Kompalli, Vasudevan Anil Kumar, Sandhya Jose, S. Suresh Babu, Govindan Pandithurai, Sachchidanand Singh, Rakesh K. Hooda, Vijay K. Soni, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Ville Vakkari, Eija Asmi, Daniel M. Westervelt, Antti-Pekka Hyvärinen, and Vijay P. Kanawade
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4491–4508, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4491-2022, 2022
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Characteristics of particle number size distributions and new particle formation in six locations in India were analyzed. New particle formation occurred frequently during the pre-monsoon (spring) season and it significantly modulates the shape of the particle number size distributions. The contribution of newly formed particles to cloud condensation nuclei concentrations was ~3 times higher in urban locations than in mountain background locations.
Alcide Zhao, Claire L. Ryder, and Laura J. Wilcox
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2095–2119, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2095-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2095-2022, 2022
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The CMIP6 models' simulated dust processes are getting more uncertain as models become more sophisticated. Of particular challenge are the links between dust cycles and optical properties, and we recommend more detailed output relating to dust cycles in future intercomparison projects to constrain such links. Also, models struggle to capture certain key regional dust processes such as dust accumulation along the slope of the Himalayas and dust seasonal cycles in North China and North America.
Matthew W. Christensen, Andrew Gettelman, Jan Cermak, Guy Dagan, Michael Diamond, Alyson Douglas, Graham Feingold, Franziska Glassmeier, Tom Goren, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Edward Gryspeerdt, Ralph Kahn, Zhanqing Li, Po-Lun Ma, Florent Malavelle, Isabel L. McCoy, Daniel T. McCoy, Greg McFarquhar, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Sandip Pal, Anna Possner, Adam Povey, Johannes Quaas, Daniel Rosenfeld, Anja Schmidt, Roland Schrödner, Armin Sorooshian, Philip Stier, Velle Toll, Duncan Watson-Parris, Robert Wood, Mingxi Yang, and Tianle Yuan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 641–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-641-2022, 2022
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Trace gases and aerosols (tiny airborne particles) are released from a variety of point sources around the globe. Examples include volcanoes, industrial chimneys, forest fires, and ship stacks. These sources provide opportunistic experiments with which to quantify the role of aerosols in modifying cloud properties. We review the current state of understanding on the influence of aerosol on climate built from the wide range of natural and anthropogenic laboratories investigated in recent decades.
Jie Zhang, Kalli Furtado, Steven T. Turnock, Jane P. Mulcahy, Laura J. Wilcox, Ben B. Booth, David Sexton, Tongwen Wu, Fang Zhang, and Qianxia Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18609–18627, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18609-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18609-2021, 2021
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The CMIP6 ESMs systematically underestimate TAS anomalies in the NH midlatitudes, especially from 1960 to 1990. The anomalous cooling is concurrent in time and space with anthropogenic SO2 emissions. The spurious drop in TAS is attributed to the overestimated aerosol concentrations. The aerosol forcing sensitivity cannot well explain the inter-model spread of PHC biases. And the cloud-amount term accounts for most of the inter-model spread in aerosol forcing sensitivity.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Andrew Williams, Lucia Deaconu, and Philip Stier
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7659–7672, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7659-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7659-2021, 2021
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The Earth System Emulator (ESEm) provides a fast and flexible framework for emulating a wide variety of Earth science datasets and tools for constraining (or tuning) models of any complexity. Three distinct use cases are presented that demonstrate the utility of ESEm and provide some insight into the use of machine learning for emulation in these different settings. The open-source Python package is freely available so that it might become a valuable tool for the community.
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Jonas Gliß, Susanne E. Bauer, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Paul Ginoux, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne T. Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Twan van Noije, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Remy, Michael Schulz, Philip Stier, Camilla W. Stjern, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15929–15947, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, 2021
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Absorption of shortwave radiation by aerosols can modify precipitation and clouds but is poorly constrained in models. A total of 15 different aerosol models from AeroCom phase III have reported total aerosol absorption, and for the first time, 11 of these models have reported in a consistent experiment the contributions to absorption from black carbon, dust, and organic aerosol. Here, we document the model diversity in aerosol absorption.
Liang Guo, Laura J. Wilcox, Massimo Bollasina, Steven T. Turnock, Marianne T. Lund, and Lixia Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15299–15308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, 2021
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Severe haze remains serious over Beijing despite emissions decreasing since 2008. Future haze changes in four scenarios are studied. The pattern conducive to haze weather increases with the atmospheric warming caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. However, the actual haze intensity, measured by either PM2.5 or optical depth, decreases with aerosol emissions. We show that only using the weather pattern index to predict the future change of Beijing haze is insufficient.
Kalle Nordling, Hannele Korhonen, Jouni Räisänen, Antti-Ilari Partanen, Bjørn H. Samset, and Joonas Merikanto
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14941–14958, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14941-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14941-2021, 2021
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Understanding the temperature responses to different climate forcing agents, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, is crucial for understanding future regional climate changes. In climate models, the regional temperature responses vary for all forcing agents, but the causes of this variability are poorly understood. For all forcing agents, the main component contributing to variance in regional surface temperature responses between the climate models is the clear-sky longwave emissivity.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Yuqiang Zhang, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gunnar Myhre, Gregory Faluvegi, Bjørn H. Samset, Timothy Andrews, Dirk Olivié, Toshihiko Takemura, and Xuhui Lee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13797–13809, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13797-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13797-2021, 2021
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Previous studies showed that black carbon (BC) could warm the surface with decreased incoming radiation. With climate models, we found that the surface energy redistribution plays a more crucial role in surface temperature compared with other forcing agents. Though BC could reduce the surface heating, the energy dissipates less efficiently, which is manifested by reduced convective and evaporative cooling, thereby warming the surface.
Shipeng Zhang, Philip Stier, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10179–10197, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10179-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10179-2021, 2021
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The relationship between aerosol-induced changes in atmospheric energetics and precipitation responses across different scales is studied in terms of fast (radiatively or microphysically mediated) and slow (temperature-mediated) responses. We introduced a method to decompose rainfall changes into contributions from clouds, aerosols, and clear–clean sky from an energetic perspective. It provides a way to better interpret and quantify the precipitation changes caused by aerosol perturbations.
Jack Giddings, Karen J. Heywood, Adrian J. Matthews, Manoj M. Joshi, Benjamin G. M. Webber, Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, Brian A. King, and Puthenveettil N. Vinayachandran
Ocean Sci., 17, 871–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-871-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-871-2021, 2021
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Little is known about the impact of chlorophyll on SST in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Solar irradiance measured by an ocean glider and three Argo floats is used to determine the effect of chlorophyll on BoB SST during the 2016 summer monsoon. The Southwest Monsoon Current has high chlorophyll concentrations (∼0.5 mg m−3) and shallow solar penetration depths (∼14 m). Ocean mixed layer model simulations show that SST increases by 0.35°C per month, with the potential to influence monsoon rainfall.
Erik Johansson, Abhay Devasthale, Michael Tjernström, Annica M. L. Ekman, Klaus Wyser, and Tristan L'Ecuyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4087–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4087-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4087-2021, 2021
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Understanding the coupling of clouds to large-scale circulation is a grand challenge for the climate community. Cloud radiative heating (CRH) is a key parameter in this coupling and is therefore essential to model realistically. We, therefore, evaluate a climate model against satellite observations. Our findings indicate good agreement in the seasonal pattern of CRH even if the magnitude differs. We also find that increasing the horizontal resolution in the model has little effect on the CRH.
Ryan M. Bright and Marianne T. Lund
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9887–9907, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9887-2021, 2021
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Humans affect the reflective properties (albedo) of Earth's surface and the amount of solar energy that it absorbs, in turn affecting climate. In recent years, a variety of climate metrics have been applied to characterize albedo perturbations in terms of their
CO2-equivalenteffects, despite the lack of scientific consensus surrounding the methods behind them. We review these metrics, evaluate their (de)merits, provide guidance for future application, and suggest avenues for future research.
Georgia Sotiropoulou, Luisa Ickes, Athanasios Nenes, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9741–9760, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9741-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9741-2021, 2021
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Mixed-phase clouds are a large source of uncertainty in projections of the Arctic climate. This is partly due to the poor representation of the cloud ice formation processes. Implementing a parameterization for ice multiplication due to mechanical breakup upon collision of two ice particles in a high-resolution model improves cloud ice phase representation; however, cloud liquid remains overestimated.
Robin D. Lamboll, Chris D. Jones, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Stephanie Fiedler, Bjørn H. Samset, Nathan P. Gillett, Joeri Rogelj, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3683–3695, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021, 2021
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Lockdowns to avoid the spread of COVID-19 have created an unprecedented reduction in human emissions. We can estimate the changes in emissions at a country level, but to make predictions about how this will affect our climate, we need more precise information about where the emissions happen. Here we combine older estimates of where emissions normally occur with very recent estimates of sector activity levels to enable different groups to make simulations of the climatic effects of lockdown.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
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Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Na Zhao, Xinyi Dong, Kan Huang, Joshua S. Fu, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Kengo Sudo, Daven Henze, Tom Kucsera, Yun Fat Lam, Mian Chin, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8637–8654, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8637-2021, 2021
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Black carbon acts as a strong climate forcer, especially in vulnerable pristine regions such as the Arctic. This work utilizes ensemble modeling results from the task force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 to investigate the responses of Arctic black carbon and surface temperature to various source emission reductions. East Asia contributed the most to Arctic black carbon. The response of Arctic temperature to black carbon was substantially more sensitive than the global average.
Lixia Zhang, Laura J. Wilcox, Nick J. Dunstone, David J. Paynter, Shuai Hu, Massimo Bollasina, Donghuan Li, Jonathan K. P. Shonk, and Liwei Zou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7499–7514, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7499-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7499-2021, 2021
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The projected frequency of circulation patterns associated with haze events and global warming increases significantly due to weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon. Rapid reduction in anthropogenic aerosol further increases the frequency of circulation patterns, but haze events are less dangerous. We revealed competing effects of aerosol emission reductions on future haze events through their direct contribution to haze intensity and their influence on the atmospheric circulation patterns.
Daniel M. Westervelt, Arlene M. Fiore, Colleen B. Baublitz, and Gustavo Correa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6799–6810, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6799-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6799-2021, 2021
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Particulate air pollution in the atmosphere can impact the availability of gas-phase chemical constituents, which can then have feedbacks on gas-phase air pollutants. We use a chemistry–climate computer model to simulate the impact of particulate pollution from three major world regions on gas-phase chemical constituents. We find that surface-level ozone air pollution decreases by up to 5 ppbv over China in response to Chinese particulate air pollution, which has implications for policy.
Alejandro Baró Pérez, Abhay Devasthale, Frida A.-M. Bender, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6053–6077, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6053-2021, 2021
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We study the impacts of above-cloud biomass burning plumes on radiation and clouds over the southeast Atlantic using data derived from satellite observations and data-constrained model simulations. A substantial amount of the aerosol within the plumes is not classified as smoke by the satellite. The atmosphere warms more with increasing smoke aerosol loading. No clear influence of aerosol type, loading, or moisture within the overlying aerosol plumes is detected on the cloud top cooling rates.
Taufiq Hassan, Robert J. Allen, Wei Liu, and Cynthia A. Randles
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5821–5846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5821-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5821-2021, 2021
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State-of-the-art climate models yield robust, externally forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the bulk of which are due to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations to net surface shortwave radiation and sea surface temperature. AMOC-related feedbacks act to reinforce this aerosol-forced response, largely due to changes in sea surface salinity (and hence sea surface density), with temperature- and cloud-related feedbacks acting to mute the initial response.
Ines Bulatovic, Adele L. Igel, Caroline Leck, Jost Heintzenberg, Ilona Riipinen, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3871–3897, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3871-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3871-2021, 2021
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We use detailed numerical modelling to show that small aerosol particles (diameters ~25–80 nm; so-called Aitken mode particles) significantly influence low-level cloud properties in the clean summertime high Arctic. The small particles can help sustain clouds when the concentration of larger particles is low (<10–20 cm-3). Measurements from four different observational campaigns in the high Arctic support the modelling results as they indicate that Aitken mode aerosols are frequently activated.
Jim M. Haywood, Steven J. Abel, Paul A. Barrett, Nicolas Bellouin, Alan Blyth, Keith N. Bower, Melissa Brooks, Ken Carslaw, Haochi Che, Hugh Coe, Michael I. Cotterell, Ian Crawford, Zhiqiang Cui, Nicholas Davies, Beth Dingley, Paul Field, Paola Formenti, Hamish Gordon, Martin de Graaf, Ross Herbert, Ben Johnson, Anthony C. Jones, Justin M. Langridge, Florent Malavelle, Daniel G. Partridge, Fanny Peers, Jens Redemann, Philip Stier, Kate Szpek, Jonathan W. Taylor, Duncan Watson-Parris, Robert Wood, Huihui Wu, and Paquita Zuidema
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1049–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1049-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1049-2021, 2021
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Every year, the seasonal cycle of biomass burning from agricultural practices in Africa creates a huge plume of smoke that travels many thousands of kilometres over the Atlantic Ocean. This study provides an overview of a measurement campaign called the cloud–aerosol–radiation interaction and forcing for year 2017 (CLARIFY-2017) and documents the rationale, deployment strategy, observations, and key results from the campaign which utilized the heavily equipped FAAM atmospheric research aircraft.
Adam T. Blaker, Manoj Joshi, Bablu Sinha, David P. Stevens, Robin S. Smith, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 275–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-275-2021, 2021
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FORTE 2.0 is a flexible coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model that can be run on modest hardware. We present two 2000-year simulations which show that FORTE 2.0 is capable of producing a stable climate. Earlier versions of FORTE were used for a wide range of studies, ranging from aquaplanet configurations to investigating the cold European winters of 2009–2010. This paper introduces the updated model for which the code and configuration are now publicly available.
Jonas Gliß, Augustin Mortier, Michael Schulz, Elisabeth Andrews, Yves Balkanski, Susanne E. Bauer, Anna M. K. Benedictow, Huisheng Bian, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Mian Chin, Paul Ginoux, Jan J. Griesfeller, Andreas Heckel, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Paolo Laj, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Gunnar Myhre, David Neubauer, Twan van Noije, Peter North, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Rémy, Larisa Sogacheva, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Svetlana G. Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 87–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-87-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-87-2021, 2021
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Simulated aerosol optical properties as well as the aerosol life cycle are investigated for 14 global models participating in the AeroCom initiative. Considerable diversity is found in the simulated aerosol species emissions and lifetimes, also resulting in a large diversity in the simulated aerosol mass, composition, and optical properties. A comparison with observations suggests that, on average, current models underestimate the direct effect of aerosol on the atmosphere radiation budget.
Haochi Che, Philip Stier, Hamish Gordon, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Lucia Deaconu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17-2021, 2021
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The south-eastern Atlantic is semi-permanently covered by some of the largest stratocumulus clouds and is influenced by one-third of the biomass burning emissions from African fires. A UKEMS1 model simulation shows that the absorption effect of biomass burning aerosols is the most significant on clouds and radiation. The dominate cooling and rapid adjustments induced by the radiative effects of biomass burning aerosols result in an overall cooling in the south-eastern Atlantic.
Johannes Quaas, Antti Arola, Brian Cairns, Matthew Christensen, Hartwig Deneke, Annica M. L. Ekman, Graham Feingold, Ann Fridlind, Edward Gryspeerdt, Otto Hasekamp, Zhanqing Li, Antti Lipponen, Po-Lun Ma, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Athanasios Nenes, Joyce E. Penner, Daniel Rosenfeld, Roland Schrödner, Kenneth Sinclair, Odran Sourdeval, Philip Stier, Matthias Tesche, Bastiaan van Diedenhoven, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15079–15099, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15079-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15079-2020, 2020
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Anthropogenic pollution particles – aerosols – serve as cloud condensation nuclei and thus increase cloud droplet concentration and the clouds' reflection of sunlight (a cooling effect on climate). This Twomey effect is poorly constrained by models and requires satellite data for better quantification. The review summarizes the challenges in properly doing so and outlines avenues for progress towards a better use of aerosol retrievals and better retrievals of droplet concentrations.
Jonathan K. P. Shonk, Andrew G. Turner, Amulya Chevuturi, Laura J. Wilcox, Andrea J. Dittus, and Ed Hawkins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14903–14915, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14903-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14903-2020, 2020
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We use a set of model simulations of the 20th century to demonstrate that the uncertainty in the cooling effect of man-made aerosol emissions has a wide range of impacts on global monsoons. For the weakest cooling, the impact of aerosol is overpowered by greenhouse gas (GHG) warming and monsoon rainfall increases in the late 20th century. For the strongest cooling, aerosol impact dominates over GHG warming, leading to reduced monsoon rainfall, particularly from 1950 to 1980.
Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020
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A first assessment is made of the historical and future changes in air pollutants from models participating in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Substantial benefits to future air quality can be achieved in future scenarios that implement measures to mitigate climate and involve reductions in air pollutant emissions, particularly methane. However, important differences are shown between models in the future regional projection of air pollutants under the same scenario.
Carley E. Iles, Robert Vautard, Jane Strachan, Sylvie Joussaume, Bernd R. Eggen, and Chris D. Hewitt
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5583–5607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5583-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5583-2020, 2020
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We investigate how increased resolution affects the simulation of European climate extremes for global and regional climate models to inform modelling strategies. Precipitation extremes become heavier with higher resolution, especially over mountains, wind extremes become somewhat stronger, and for temperature extremes warm biases are reduced over mountains. Differences with resolution for the global model appear to come from downscaling effects rather than improved large-scale circulation.
Camilla W. Stjern, Bjørn H. Samset, Olivier Boucher, Trond Iversen, Jean-François Lamarque, Gunnar Myhre, Drew Shindell, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13467–13480, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13467-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13467-2020, 2020
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The span between the warmest and coldest temperatures over a day is a climate parameter that influences both agriculture and human health. Using data from 10 models, we show how individual climate drivers such as greenhouse gases and aerosols produce distinctly different responses in this parameter in high-emission regions. Given the high uncertainty in future aerosol emissions, this improved understanding of the temperature responses may ultimately help these regions prepare for future changes.
Marianne T. Lund, Borgar Aamaas, Camilla W. Stjern, Zbigniew Klimont, Terje K. Berntsen, and Bjørn H. Samset
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020, 2020
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Achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals requires both near-zero levels of long-lived greenhouse gases and deep cuts in emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs). Here we quantify the near- and long-term global temperature impacts of emissions of individual SLCFs and CO2 from 7 economic sectors in 13 regions in order to provide the detailed knowledge needed to design efficient mitigation strategies at the sectoral and regional levels.
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Jared Lewis, Robert Gieseke, Dietmar Dommenget, Kalyn Dorheim, Chen-Shuo Fan, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Thomas Gasser, Ulrich Golüke, Philip Goodwin, Corinne Hartin, Austin P. Hope, Elmar Kriegler, Nicholas J. Leach, Davide Marchegiani, Laura A. McBride, Yann Quilcaille, Joeri Rogelj, Ross J. Salawitch, Bjørn H. Samset, Marit Sandstad, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Christopher J. Smith, Steve Smith, Katsumasa Tanaka, Junichi Tsutsui, and Zhiang Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5175–5190, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, 2020
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Computational limits mean that we cannot run our most comprehensive climate models for all applications of interest. In such cases, reduced complexity models (RCMs) are used. Here, researchers working on 15 different models present the first systematic community effort to evaluate and compare RCMs: the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). Our research ensures that users of RCMs can more easily evaluate the strengths, weaknesses and limitations of their tools.
Laura J. Wilcox, Zhen Liu, Bjørn H. Samset, Ed Hawkins, Marianne T. Lund, Kalle Nordling, Sabine Undorf, Massimo Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Srinath Krishnan, Joonas Merikanto, and Andrew G. Turner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11955–11977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, 2020
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Projected changes in man-made aerosol range from large reductions to moderate increases in emissions until 2050. Rapid reductions between the present and the 2050s lead to enhanced increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation relative to scenarios with continued increases in aerosol. Relative magnitude and spatial distribution of aerosol changes are particularly important for South Asian summer monsoon precipitation changes, affecting the sign of the trend in the coming decades.
Jack Giddings, Adrian J. Matthews, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Karen J. Heywood, Manoj Joshi, and Benjamin G. M. Webber
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 635–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-635-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-635-2020, 2020
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The impact of chlorophyll on the southwest monsoon is unknown. Here, seasonally varying chlorophyll in the Bay of Bengal was imposed in a general circulation model coupled to an ocean mixed layer model. The SST increases by 0.5 °C in response to chlorophyll forcing and shallow mixed layer depths in coastal regions during the inter-monsoon. Precipitation increases significantly to 3 mm d-1 across Myanmar during June and over northeast India and Bangladesh during October, decreasing model bias.
Luisa Ickes, Grace C. E. Porter, Robert Wagner, Michael P. Adams, Sascha Bierbauer, Allan K. Bertram, Merete Bilde, Sigurd Christiansen, Annica M. L. Ekman, Elena Gorokhova, Kristina Höhler, Alexei A. Kiselev, Caroline Leck, Ottmar Möhler, Benjamin J. Murray, Thea Schiebel, Romy Ullrich, and Matthew E. Salter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11089–11117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11089-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11089-2020, 2020
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The Arctic is a region where aerosols are scarce. Sea spray might be a potential source of aerosols acting as ice-nucleating particles. We investigate two common phytoplankton species (Melosira arctica and Skeletonema marinoi) and present their ice nucleation activity in comparison with Arctic seawater microlayer samples from different field campaigns. We also aim to understand the aerosolization process of marine biological samples and the potential effect on the ice nucleation activity.
Anne Sophie Daloz, Marian Mateling, Tristan L'Ecuyer, Mark Kulie, Norm B. Wood, Mikael Durand, Melissa Wrzesien, Camilla W. Stjern, and Ashok P. Dimri
The Cryosphere, 14, 3195–3207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3195-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3195-2020, 2020
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The total of snow that falls globally is a critical factor governing freshwater availability. To better understand how this resource is impacted by climate change, we need to know how reliable the current observational datasets for snow are. Here, we compare five datasets looking at the snow falling over the mountains versus the other continents. We show that there is a large consensus when looking at fractional contributions but strong dissimilarities when comparing magnitudes.
María A. Burgos, Elisabeth Andrews, Gloria Titos, Angela Benedetti, Huisheng Bian, Virginie Buchard, Gabriele Curci, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Anton Laakso, Julie Letertre-Danczak, Marianne T. Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Gunnar Myhre, Cynthia Randles, Michael Schulz, Twan van Noije, Kai Zhang, Lucas Alados-Arboledas, Urs Baltensperger, Anne Jefferson, James Sherman, Junying Sun, Ernest Weingartner, and Paul Zieger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10231–10258, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10231-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10231-2020, 2020
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We investigate how well models represent the enhancement in scattering coefficients due to particle water uptake, and perform an evaluation of several implementation schemes used in ten Earth system models. Our results show the importance of the parameterization of hygroscopicity and model chemistry as drivers of some of the observed diversity amongst model estimates. The definition of dry conditions and the phenomena taking place in this relative humidity range also impact the model evaluation.
Robert J. Allen, Steven Turnock, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Ulrike Lohmann, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Martine Michou, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Toshihiko Takemura, Michael Schulz, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Louisa Emmons, Larry Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Prodromos Zanis, Ina Tegen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Philippe Le Sager, Peter Good, Sungbo Shim, Fiona O'Connor, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Makoto Deushi, Lori T. Sentman, Jasmin G. John, Shinichiro Fujimori, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9641–9663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, 2020
Gunnar Myhre, Bjørn H. Samset, Christian W. Mohr, Kari Alterskjær, Yves Balkanski, Nicolas Bellouin, Mian Chin, James Haywood, Øivind Hodnebrog, Stefan Kinne, Guangxing Lin, Marianne T. Lund, Joyce E. Penner, Michael Schulz, Nick Schutgens, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, and Kai Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8855–8865, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8855-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8855-2020, 2020
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The radiative forcing of the direct aerosol effects can be decomposed into clear-sky and cloudy-sky portions. In this study we use observational methods and two sets of multi-model global aerosol simulations over the industrial era to show that the contribution from cloudy-sky regions is likely weak.
Prodromos Zanis, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Robert J. Allen, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Jason Cole, Ben Johnson, Makoto Deushi, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Adriana Sima, Michael Schulz, Toshihiko Takemura, and Konstantinos Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8381–8404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020, 2020
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In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014.
Carl Malings, Daniel M. Westervelt, Aliaksei Hauryliuk, Albert A. Presto, Andrew Grieshop, Ashley Bittner, Matthias Beekmann, and R. Subramanian
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 3873–3892, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3873-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3873-2020, 2020
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Most air quality information comes from accurate but expensive instruments. These can be supplemented by lower-cost sensors to increase the density of ground data and expand monitoring into less well-instrumented areas, like sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we look at how low-cost sensor data can be combined with satellite information on air quality (which requires ground data to properly calibrate measurements) and assess the benefits these low-cost sensors provide in this context.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Yuqiang Zhang, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gunnar Myhre, Camilla W. Stjern, Gregory Faluvegi, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8251–8266, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8251-2020, 2020
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By using climate simulations, we found that both CO2 and black carbon aerosols could reduce low-level cloud cover, which is mainly due to changes in relative humidity, cloud water, dynamics, and stability. Because the impact of cloud on solar radiation is in effect only during daytime, such cloud reduction could enhance solar heating, thereby raising the daily maximum temperature by 10–50 %, varying by region, which has great implications for extreme climate events and socioeconomic activity.
Daniel T. McCoy, Paul Field, Hamish Gordon, Gregory S. Elsaesser, and Daniel P. Grosvenor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4085–4103, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4085-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4085-2020, 2020
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Incomplete understanding of how aerosol affects clouds degrades our ability to predict future climate. In particular, it is unclear how aerosol affects the lifetime of clouds. Does it increase or decrease it? This confusion is partially because causality flows from aerosol to clouds and clouds to aerosol, and it is hard to tell what is happening in observations. Here, we use simulations to tell us about how clouds affect aerosol and use this to interpret observations, showing increased lifetime.
Maria Sand, Terje K. Berntsen, Annica M. L. Ekman, Hans-Christen Hansson, and Anna Lewinschal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3079–3089, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3079-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3079-2020, 2020
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There has been a growing interest in reducing emissions of soot particles to slow global warming and improve air quality. However, estimating the effect of reduced emissions is complex, as soot particles absorb solar radiation and influence heating rates, clouds, and humidity and can influence climate far outside their emission region. Here we investigate the impact of soot emitted in four major emissions areas, using different emissions rates, to see whether location and magnitude matter.
Daniel M. Westervelt, Nora R. Mascioli, Arlene M. Fiore, Andrew J. Conley, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, Greg Faluvegi, Michael Previdi, Gustavo Correa, and Larry W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3009–3027, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3009-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3009-2020, 2020
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We use three Earth system models to estimate the impact of regional air pollutant emissions reductions on global and regional surface temperature. We find that removing human-caused air pollutant emissions from certain world regions (such as the USA) results in warming of up to 0.15 °C. We use our model output to calculate simple climate metrics that will allow for regional-scale climate impact estimates without the use of computationally demanding computer models.
Julie M. Nicely, Bryan N. Duncan, Thomas F. Hanisco, Glenn M. Wolfe, Ross J. Salawitch, Makoto Deushi, Amund S. Haslerud, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas E. Kinnison, Andrew Klekociuk, Michael E. Manyin, Virginie Marécal, Olaf Morgenstern, Lee T. Murray, Gunnar Myhre, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, Andrea Pozzer, Ilaria Quaglia, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Susan Strahan, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Daniel M. Westervelt, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1341–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, 2020
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Differences in methane lifetime among global models are large and poorly understood. We use a neural network method and simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative to quantify the factors influencing methane lifetime spread among models and variations over time. UV photolysis, tropospheric ozone, and nitrogen oxides drive large model differences, while the same factors plus specific humidity contribute to a decreasing trend in methane lifetime between 1980 and 2015.
Georgia Sotiropoulou, Sylvia Sullivan, Julien Savre, Gary Lloyd, Thomas Lachlan-Cope, Annica M. L. Ekman, and Athanasios Nenes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1301–1316, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1301-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1301-2020, 2020
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Arctic clouds constitute a large source of uncertainty in predictions of future climate. Observations indicate that the number concentration of cloud ice crystals exceeds the concentration of aerosols that can act as ice-nucleating particles (INPs). We show that ice multiplication due to mechanical break-up upon collisions between the few primary ice crystals (formed from INPs) can explain the discrepancy. Including a description of the process in climate models can improve cloud representation.
Zhen Liu, Yi Ming, Chun Zhao, Ngar Cheung Lau, Jianping Guo, Massimo Bollasina, and Steve Hung Lam Yim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 223–241, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-223-2020, 2020
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OH and HO2 radicals are important trace constituents of the atmosphere that are closely coupled via several types of reaction. This paper describes a new laboratory method to simultaneously determine OH kinetics and HO2 yields from chemical processes. The instrument also provides some time resolution on HO2 detection allowing one to separate HO2 produced from the target reaction from HO2 arising from secondary chemistry. Examples of applications are presented.
Borgar Aamaas, Terje Koren Berntsen, and Bjørn Hallvard Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15235–15245, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019, 2019
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Cutting short-lived pollutants can help keep cool the climate – but only if we are clever. We investigate how regional temperatures may change in response to different packages of air quality measures. One package consists of mitigation measures that mainly target emissions that are known to result in a cooler climate, while in the other, emissions are cut as much as technically possible in response to air quality concerns. We estimate the different contributions from various sectors and region.
Alcide Zhao, Massimo A. Bollasina, Monica Crippa, and David S. Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14517–14533, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14517-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14517-2019, 2019
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Emissions of aerosols over the recent past have been regulated largely by two policy-relevant drivers: energy-use growth and technology advances. These generate large and competing impacts on global radiation balance and climate, particularly over Asia, Europe, and the Arctic. This may help better assess and interpret future climate projections, and hence inform future climate change impact reduction strategies. Yet, it is pressing to better constrain various uncertainties related to aerosols.
Marianne T. Lund, Gunnar Myhre, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13827–13839, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13827-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13827-2019, 2019
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Atmospheric aerosols play an integral role in shaping local and global climate by modifying the energy balance, clouds and precipitation. They are also a leading cause of premature mortality in many areas. New scenarios provide projections of emissions until 2100 given strong, medium or weak air pollution control stringency. We quantify the consequent regional and global aerosol loading and radiative forcing, showing a large spread at the end of the century and regional differences in trends.
Max Heikenfeld, Peter J. Marinescu, Matthew Christensen, Duncan Watson-Parris, Fabian Senf, Susan C. van den Heever, and Philip Stier
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4551–4570, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4551-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4551-2019, 2019
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We present tobac (Tracking and Object-Based Analysis of Clouds), a newly developed framework for tracking and analysing clouds in different types of datasets. It provides a flexible new way to include the evolution of individual clouds in a wide range of analyses. It is developed as a community project to provide a common basis for the inclusion of existing tracking algorithms and the development of new analyses that involve tracking clouds and other features in geoscientific research.
Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Bjørn H. Samset, Kari Alterskjær, Timothy Andrews, Olivier Boucher, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Piers M. Forster, Matthew Kasoar, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas B. Richardson, Dilshad Shawki, Drew Shindell, Keith P. Shine, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12887–12899, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, 2019
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Different greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2) and aerosols (e.g. black carbon) impact the Earth’s water cycle differently. Here we investigate how various gases and particles impact atmospheric water vapour and its lifetime, i.e., the average number of days that water vapour stays in the atmosphere after evaporation and before precipitation. We find that this lifetime could increase substantially by the end of this century, indicating that important changes in precipitation patterns are excepted.
Satyaban B. Ratna, Timothy J. Osborn, Manoj Joshi, Bao Yang, and Jianglin Wang
Clim. Past, 15, 1825–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1825-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1825-2019, 2019
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We examine the relationships in models and reconstructions between multidecadal variability of East Asian temperature and two extratropical modes of variability. The relationship between East Asian temperature and Pacific multidecadal variability is largely driven by internal variability, whereas with Atlantic multidecadal variability it is more strongly influenced by the presence or absence of external forcing. We discuss the implications for diagnosing teleconnections from reconstructions.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Nick Schutgens, Carly Reddington, Kirsty J. Pringle, Dantong Liu, James D. Allan, Hugh Coe, Ken S. Carslaw, and Philip Stier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11765–11790, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11765-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11765-2019, 2019
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The vertical distribution of aerosol in the atmosphere affects its ability to act as cloud condensation nuclei and changes the amount of sunlight it absorbs or reflects. Common global measurements of aerosol provide no information about this vertical distribution. Using a global collection of in situ aircraft measurements to compare with an aerosol–climate model (ECHAM-HAM), we explore the key processes controlling this distribution and find that wet removal plays a key role.
Laura J. Wilcox, Nick Dunstone, Anna Lewinschal, Massimo Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, and Eleanor J. Highwood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9081–9095, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9081-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9081-2019, 2019
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Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions have increased rapidly since 1980. In winter, this has resulted in warming over China and cooling over India. Using models of different levels of complexity, we show that Asian-aerosol-induced heating anomalies in the western and northern North Pacific establish a circulation pattern that causes cooling in North America and Europe. This connection makes these regions potentially sensitive to any reductions of Asian aerosol emissions in the near future.
George S. Fanourgakis, Maria Kanakidou, Athanasios Nenes, Susanne E. Bauer, Tommi Bergman, Ken S. Carslaw, Alf Grini, Douglas S. Hamilton, Jill S. Johnson, Vlassis A. Karydis, Alf Kirkevåg, John K. Kodros, Ulrike Lohmann, Gan Luo, Risto Makkonen, Hitoshi Matsui, David Neubauer, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Julia Schmale, Philip Stier, Kostas Tsigaridis, Twan van Noije, Hailong Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Yang Yang, Masaru Yoshioka, Nikos Daskalakis, Stefano Decesari, Martin Gysel-Beer, Nikos Kalivitis, Xiaohong Liu, Natalie M. Mahowald, Stelios Myriokefalitakis, Roland Schrödner, Maria Sfakianaki, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Mingxuan Wu, and Fangqun Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8591–8617, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8591-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8591-2019, 2019
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Effects of aerosols on clouds are important for climate studies but are among the largest uncertainties in climate projections. This study evaluates the skill of global models to simulate aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNCs). Model results show reduced spread in CDNC compared to CCN due to the negative correlation between the sensitivities of CDNC to aerosol number concentration (air pollution) and updraft velocity (atmospheric dynamics).
Ina Tegen, David Neubauer, Sylvaine Ferrachat, Colombe Siegenthaler-Le Drian, Isabelle Bey, Nick Schutgens, Philip Stier, Duncan Watson-Parris, Tanja Stanelle, Hauke Schmidt, Sebastian Rast, Harri Kokkola, Martin Schultz, Sabine Schroeder, Nikos Daskalakis, Stefan Barthel, Bernd Heinold, and Ulrike Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1643–1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1643-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1643-2019, 2019
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We describe a new version of the aerosol–climate model ECHAM–HAM and show tests of the model performance by comparing different aspects of the aerosol distribution with different datasets. The updated version of HAM contains improved descriptions of aerosol processes, including updated emission fields and cloud processes. While there are regional deviations between the model and observations, the model performs well overall.
Anna Lewinschal, Annica M. L. Ekman, Hans-Christen Hansson, Maria Sand, Terje K. Berntsen, and Joakim Langner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2385–2403, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2385-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2385-2019, 2019
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We use a global climate model to study how anthropogenic emissions of short-lived atmospheric particles in different parts of the world influence the global temperature distribution. We find that the global mean temperature change per unit emission is similar for all emission regions, and the largest temperature response is found in the Arctic no matter where the emissions occur. However, for European emissions, the temperature change per unit emission is found to depend on emission strength.
Michael Boy, Erik S. Thomson, Juan-C. Acosta Navarro, Olafur Arnalds, Ekaterina Batchvarova, Jaana Bäck, Frank Berninger, Merete Bilde, Zoé Brasseur, Pavla Dagsson-Waldhauserova, Dimitri Castarède, Maryam Dalirian, Gerrit de Leeuw, Monika Dragosics, Ella-Maria Duplissy, Jonathan Duplissy, Annica M. L. Ekman, Keyan Fang, Jean-Charles Gallet, Marianne Glasius, Sven-Erik Gryning, Henrik Grythe, Hans-Christen Hansson, Margareta Hansson, Elisabeth Isaksson, Trond Iversen, Ingibjorg Jonsdottir, Ville Kasurinen, Alf Kirkevåg, Atte Korhola, Radovan Krejci, Jon Egill Kristjansson, Hanna K. Lappalainen, Antti Lauri, Matti Leppäranta, Heikki Lihavainen, Risto Makkonen, Andreas Massling, Outi Meinander, E. Douglas Nilsson, Haraldur Olafsson, Jan B. C. Pettersson, Nønne L. Prisle, Ilona Riipinen, Pontus Roldin, Meri Ruppel, Matthew Salter, Maria Sand, Øyvind Seland, Heikki Seppä, Henrik Skov, Joana Soares, Andreas Stohl, Johan Ström, Jonas Svensson, Erik Swietlicki, Ksenia Tabakova, Throstur Thorsteinsson, Aki Virkkula, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Yusheng Wu, Paul Zieger, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2015–2061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2015-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2015-2019, 2019
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The Nordic Centre of Excellence CRAICC (Cryosphere–Atmosphere Interactions in a Changing Arctic Climate), funded by NordForsk in the years 2011–2016, is the largest joint Nordic research and innovation initiative to date and aimed to strengthen research and innovation regarding climate change issues in the Nordic region. The paper presents an overview of the main scientific topics investigated and provides a state-of-the-art comprehensive summary of what has been achieved in CRAICC.
Daniel T. McCoy, Paul R. Field, Gregory S. Elsaesser, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Brian H. Kahn, Mark D. Zelinka, Chihiro Kodama, Thorsten Mauritsen, Benoit Vanniere, Malcolm Roberts, Pier L. Vidale, David Saint-Martin, Aurore Voldoire, Rein Haarsma, Adrian Hill, Ben Shipway, and Jonathan Wilkinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1147–1172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1147-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1147-2019, 2019
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The largest single source of uncertainty in the climate sensitivity predicted by global climate models is how much low-altitude clouds change as the climate warms. Models predict that the amount of liquid within and the brightness of low-altitude clouds increase in the extratropics with warming. We show that increased fluxes of moisture into extratropical storms in the midlatitudes explain the majority of the observed trend and the modeled increase in liquid water within these storms.
Marianne Tronstad Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Amund Søvde Haslerud, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Jan Griesfeller, Stephen Matthew Platt, Rajesh Kumar, Cathrine Lund Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4909–4931, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4909-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4909-2018, 2018
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Atmospheric aerosols play a key role in the climate system, but their exact impact on the energy balance remains uncertain. Accurate representation of the geographical distribution and properties of aerosols in global models is key to reduce this uncertainty. Here we use a new emission inventory and a range of observations to carefully validate a state-of-the-art model and present an updated estimate of the net direct effect of anthropogenic aerosols since the preindustrial era.
Jan Eiof Jonson, Michael Schulz, Louisa Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Daven Henze, Kengo Sudo, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Meiyun Lin, Anna Benedictow, Brigitte Koffi, Frank Dentener, Terry Keating, Rigel Kivi, and Yanko Davila
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13655–13672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13655-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13655-2018, 2018
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Focusing on Europe, this HTAP 2 study computes ozone in several global models when reducing anthropogenic emissions by 20 % in different world regions. The differences in model results are explored
by use of a novel stepwise approach combining a tracer, CO and ozone. For ozone the contributions from the rest of the world are larger than from Europe, with the largest contributions from North America and eastern Asia. Contributions do, however, depend on the choice of ozone metric.
Daniel M. Westervelt, Andrew J. Conley, Arlene M. Fiore, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, Michael Previdi, Nora R. Mascioli, Greg Faluvegi, Gustavo Correa, and Larry W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12461–12475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12461-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12461-2018, 2018
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Small particles in Earth's atmosphere (also referred to as atmospheric aerosols) emitted by human activities impact Earth's climate in complex ways and play an important role in Earth's water cycle. We use a climate modeling approach and find that aerosols from the United States and Europe can have substantial effects on rainfall in far-away regions such as Africa's Sahel or the Mediterranean. Air pollution controls in these regions may help reduce the likelihood and severity of Sahel drought.
Robin G. Stevens, Katharina Loewe, Christopher Dearden, Antonios Dimitrelos, Anna Possner, Gesa K. Eirund, Tomi Raatikainen, Adrian A. Hill, Benjamin J. Shipway, Jonathan Wilkinson, Sami Romakkaniemi, Juha Tonttila, Ari Laaksonen, Hannele Korhonen, Paul Connolly, Ulrike Lohmann, Corinna Hoose, Annica M. L. Ekman, Ken S. Carslaw, and Paul R. Field
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11041–11071, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11041-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11041-2018, 2018
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We perform a model intercomparison of summertime high Arctic clouds. Observed concentrations of aerosol particles necessary for cloud formation fell to extremely low values, coincident with a transition from cloudy to nearly cloud-free conditions. Previous analyses have suggested that at these low concentrations, the radiative properties of the clouds are determined primarily by these particle concentrations. The model results strongly support this hypothesis.
Ciao-Kai Liang, J. Jason West, Raquel A. Silva, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Yanko Davila, Frank J. Dentener, Louisa Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Gerd Folberth, Daven Henze, Ulas Im, Jan Eiof Jonson, Terry J. Keating, Tom Kucsera, Allen Lenzen, Meiyun Lin, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Xiaohua Pan, Rokjin J. Park, R. Bradley Pierce, Takashi Sekiya, Kengo Sudo, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10497–10520, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10497-2018, 2018
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Emissions from one continent affect air quality and health elsewhere. Here we quantify the effects of intercontinental PM2.5 and ozone transport on human health using a new multi-model ensemble, evaluating the health effects of emissions from six world regions and three emission source sectors. Emissions from one region have significant health impacts outside of that source region; similarly, foreign emissions contribute significantly to air-pollution-related deaths in several world regions.
Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Frank J. Dentener, Yanko Davila, Louisa K. Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Gerd A. Folberth, Daven K. Henze, Jan E. Jonson, Terry J. Keating, Sudo Kengo, Meiyun Lin, Marianne Lund, Simone Tilmes, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8953–8978, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8953-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8953-2018, 2018
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A simple parameterisation was developed in this study to provide a rapid assessment of the impacts and uncertainties associated with future emission control strategies by predicting changes to surface ozone air quality and near-term climate forcing of ozone. Future emissions scenarios based on currently implemented legislation are shown to worsen surface ozone air quality and enhance near-term climate warming, with changes in methane becoming increasingly important in the future.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Bjørn H. Samset, Oliviér Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Jana Sillmann, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Timothy Andrews, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Trond Iversen, Matthew Kasoar, Viatcheslav Kharin, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Richardson, Camilla W. Stjern, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8439–8452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018, 2018
Quentin Bourgeois, Annica M. L. Ekman, Jean-Baptiste Renard, Radovan Krejci, Abhay Devasthale, Frida A.-M. Bender, Ilona Riipinen, Gwenaël Berthet, and Jason L. Tackett
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7709–7720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7709-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7709-2018, 2018
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The altitude of aerosols is crucial as they can impact cloud formation and radiation. In this study, satellite observations have been used to characterize the global aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the boundary layer and the free troposphere. The free troposphere contributes 39 % to the global AOD during daytime. Overall, the results have implications for the description of budgets, sources, sinks and transport of aerosol particles as presently described in the atmospheric model.
Daniel T. McCoy, Paul R. Field, Anja Schmidt, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Frida A.-M. Bender, Ben J. Shipway, Adrian A. Hill, Jonathan M. Wilkinson, and Gregory S. Elsaesser
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5821–5846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5821-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5821-2018, 2018
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Here we use a combination of global convection-permitting models, satellite observations and the Holuhraun volcanic eruption to demonstrate that aerosol enhances the cloud liquid content and brightness of midlatitude cyclones. This is important because the strength of anthropogenic radiative forcing is uncertain, leading to uncertainty in the climate sensitivity consistent with observed temperature record.
Daniel T. McCoy, Frida A.-M. Bender, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Johannes K. Mohrmann, Dennis L. Hartmann, Robert Wood, and Paul R. Field
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2035–2047, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2035-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2035-2018, 2018
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The interaction between clouds and aerosols represents the largest source of uncertainty in the anthropogenic radiative forcing. Cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) is the state variable that moderates the interaction between aerosol and clouds. Here we show that CDNC decreases off the coasts of East Asia and North America due to controls on emissions. We support this analysis through an examination of volcanism in Hawaii and Vanuatu.
Camilla W. Stjern, Helene Muri, Lars Ahlm, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Jim Haywood, Ben Kravitz, Andrew Lenton, John C. Moore, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven J. Phipps, Hauke Schmidt, Shingo Watanabe, and Jón Egill Kristjánsson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-621-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-621-2018, 2018
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Marine cloud brightening (MCB) has been proposed to help limit global warming. We present here the first multi-model assessment of idealized MCB simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. While all models predict a global cooling as intended, there is considerable spread between the models both in terms of radiative forcing and the climate response, largely linked to the substantial differences in the models' representation of clouds.
Lars Ahlm, Andy Jones, Camilla W. Stjern, Helene Muri, Ben Kravitz, and Jón Egill Kristjánsson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13071–13087, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13071-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13071-2017, 2017
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We present results from coordinated simulations with three Earth system models focusing on the response of Earth’s radiation balance to the injection of sea salt particles. We find that in most regions the effective radiative forcing by the injected particles is equally large in cloudy and clear-sky conditions, suggesting a more important role of the aerosol direct effect in sea spray climate engineering than previously thought.
Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, Susanne E. Bauer, Marianne T. Lund, Vlassis A. Karydis, Tom L. Kucsera, Xiaohua Pan, Andrea Pozzer, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Stephen D. Steenrod, Kengo Sudo, Kostas Tsigaridis, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, and Svetlana G. Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12911–12940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12911-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12911-2017, 2017
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Atmospheric nitrate contributes notably to total aerosol mass in the present day and is likely to be more important over the next century, with a projected decline in SO2 and NOx emissions and increase in NH3 emissions. This paper investigates atmospheric nitrate using multiple global models and measurements. The study is part of the AeroCom phase III activity. The study is the first attempt to look at global atmospheric nitrate simulation at physical and chemical process levels.
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Yves Balkanski, Susanne Bauer, Nicolas Bellouin, Terje K. Berntsen, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Thomas Diehl, Richard Easter, Steven J. Ghan, Trond Iversen, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-François Lamarque, Guangxing Lin, Xiaohong Liu, Gan Luo, Gunnar Myhre, Twan van Noije, Joyce E. Penner, Michael Schulz, Øyvind Seland, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Fangqun Yu, Kai Zhang, and Hua Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12197–12218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12197-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12197-2017, 2017
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The role of aerosols in the changing polar climate is not well understood and the aerosols are poorly constrained in the models. In this study we have compared output from 16 different aerosol models with available observations at both poles. We show that the model median is representative of the observations, but the model spread is large. The Arctic direct aerosol radiative effect over the industrial area is positive during spring due to black carbon and negative during summer due to sulfate.
Marianne T. Lund, Borgar Aamaas, Terje Berntsen, Lisa Bock, Ulrike Burkhardt, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, and Keith P. Shine
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 547–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-547-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-547-2017, 2017
Katharina Loewe, Annica M. L. Ekman, Marco Paukert, Joseph Sedlar, Michael Tjernström, and Corinna Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6693–6704, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6693-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6693-2017, 2017
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Processes that affect Arctic mixed-phase cloud life cycle are extremely important for the surface energy budget. Three different sensitivity experiments mimic changes in the advection of air masses with different thermodynamic profiles and aerosol properties to find the potential mechanisms leading to the dissipation of the cloud. We found that the reduction of the cloud droplet number concentration was likely the primary contributor to the dissipation of the observed Arctic mixed-phase cloud.
Anahita Amiri-Farahani, Robert J. Allen, David Neubauer, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6305–6322, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6305-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6305-2017, 2017
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We use observations from 2004 to 2012 to obtain estimates of the aerosol–cloud radiative effect, including its uncertainty, for dust aerosol influencing Atlantic marine stratocumulus clouds (MSc) off the coast of north Africa. Saharan dust modifies MSc in a way that acts to cool the planet. There is a strong seasonal variation, with the aerosol–cloud radiative effect switching from significantly negative during the boreal summer to weakly positive during boreal winter.
Marianne T. Lund, Terje K. Berntsen, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6003–6022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6003-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6003-2017, 2017
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This study investigates possibilities for improving the representation of black carbon (BC) distribution in a global atmospheric chemistry-transport model by exploring uncertainties in key processes controlling the removal of aerosols from the atmosphere. Our results provide an increased understanding of the processes contributing to uncertainties in the BC abundance and climate impact and underline the importance of more observations and experimental data further constrain models.
Elisabeth Andrews, John A. Ogren, Stefan Kinne, and Bjorn Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6041–6072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6041-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6041-2017, 2017
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We compare absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA) from AERONET retrievals with AAOD and SSA obtained from in situ vertical profiling flights over two rural sites in North America. The direct comparisons of in situ derived to AERONET-retrieved AAOD (or SSA) reveal that AERONET retrievals yield higher aerosol absorption than obtained from the in situ profiles. This has implications for models using AERONET to evaluate or scale their simulated absorption values.
Gunnar Myhre, Wenche Aas, Ribu Cherian, William Collins, Greg Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Piers Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Zbigniew Klimont, Marianne T. Lund, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Dirk Olivié, Michael Prather, Johannes Quaas, Bjørn H. Samset, Jordan L. Schnell, Michael Schulz, Drew Shindell, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Svetlana Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2709–2720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, 2017
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Over the past decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The global mean radiative forcing is more strongly positive than reported in IPCC AR5.
Nicolas Bellouin, Laura Baker, Øivind Hodnebrog, Dirk Olivié, Ribu Cherian, Claire Macintosh, Bjørn Samset, Anna Esteve, Borgar Aamaas, Johannes Quaas, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13885–13910, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13885-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13885-2016, 2016
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This study uses global climate models to quantify how strongly man-made emissions of selected pollutants modify the energy budget of the Earth. The pollutants studied interact directly and indirectly with sunlight and terrestrial radiation and remain a relatively short time in the atmosphere, leading to regional and seasonal variations in their impacts. This new data set is useful to compare the potential climate impacts of different pollutants in support of policies to reduce climate change.
Camilla Weum Stjern, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Yanko Davila, Frank Dentener, Louisa Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Amund Søvde Haslerud, Daven Henze, Jan Eiof Jonson, Tom Kucsera, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Michael Schulz, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13579–13599, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13579-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13579-2016, 2016
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Air pollution can reach distant regions through intercontinental transport. Here we first present results from the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 exercise, where many models performed the same set of coordinated emission-reduction experiments. We find that mitigations have considerable extra-regional effects, and show that this is particularly true for black carbon emissions, as long-range transport elevates aerosols to higher levels where their radiative influence is stronger.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Nick Schutgens, Nicholas Cook, Zak Kipling, Philip Kershaw, Edward Gryspeerdt, Bryan Lawrence, and Philip Stier
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3093–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3093-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3093-2016, 2016
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In this paper we describe CIS, a new command line tool for the easy visualization, analysis and comparison of a wide variety of gridded and ungridded data sets used in Earth sciences. Users can now use a single tool to not only view plots of satellite, aircraft, station or model data, but also bring them onto the same spatio-temporal sampling. This allows robust, quantitative comparisons to be made easily. CIS is an open-source project and welcomes input from the community.
B. Quennehen, J.-C. Raut, K. S. Law, N. Daskalakis, G. Ancellet, C. Clerbaux, S.-W. Kim, M. T. Lund, G. Myhre, D. J. L. Olivié, S. Safieddine, R. B. Skeie, J. L. Thomas, S. Tsyro, A. Bazureau, N. Bellouin, M. Hu, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, S. Myriokefalitakis, J. Quaas, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, R. Cherian, A. Shimizu, J. Wang, S.-C. Yoon, and T. Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10765–10792, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10765-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10765-2016, 2016
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This paper evaluates the ability of six global models and one regional model in reproducing short-lived pollutants (defined here as ozone and its precursors, aerosols and black carbon) concentrations over Asia using satellite, ground-based and airborne observations.
Key findings are that models homogeneously reproduce the trace gas observations although nitrous oxides are underestimated, whereas the aerosol distributions are heterogeneously reproduced, implicating important uncertainties.
F. Höpner, F. A.-M. Bender, A. M. L. Ekman, P. S. Praveen, C. Bosch, J. A. Ogren, A. Andersson, Ö. Gustafsson, and V. Ramanathan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1045–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1045-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1045-2016, 2016
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The paper presents aerosol properties measured during the Cloud Aerosol Radiative Forcing Experiment (CARDEX) on the Maldives Islands in winter 2012. The vertical distribution of absorbing aerosol which is very relevant to the radiative forcing in that region, is investigated. A method for determining particle absorption and equivalent black carbon concentration from lidar extinction coefficients, characteristic single scattering albedo and mass absorption efficiency, is presented and evaluated.
D. M. Westervelt, L. W. Horowitz, V. Naik, J.-C. Golaz, and D. L. Mauzerall
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12681–12703, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12681-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12681-2015, 2015
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Decreases in aerosols over the 21st century as projected by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) lead to increases up to 0.5 - 1 ºC in global temperature and up to 0.05 - 0.1 mm/day in global precipitation, depending strongly on present-day aerosol radiative forcing. In East Asia, future aerosol decreases could be responsible for 10-20% of the total temperature increase (30-40% with strong present-day aerosol forcing), even under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5).
E. Johansson, A. Devasthale, T. L'Ecuyer, A. M. L. Ekman, and M. Tjernström
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11557–11570, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11557-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11557-2015, 2015
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Both radiative and latent heat components of total diabatic heating influence Indian monsoon dynamics. This study investigates radiative component in detail, focusing on various cloud types that have largest radiative impact during summer monsoon over the Indian subcontinent. The vertical structure of radiative heating and its intra-seasonal variability is investigated with particular emphasis on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region.
A. Stohl, B. Aamaas, M. Amann, L. H. Baker, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, O. Boucher, R. Cherian, W. Collins, N. Daskalakis, M. Dusinska, S. Eckhardt, J. S. Fuglestvedt, M. Harju, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, J. Hao, U. Im, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Maas, C. R. MacIntosh, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, D. Olivié, J. Quaas, B. Quennehen, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, B. H. Samset, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, K. P. Shine, R. B. Skeie, S. Wang, K. E. Yttri, and T. Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10529–10566, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, 2015
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This paper presents a summary of the findings of the ECLIPSE EU project. The project has investigated the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived climate pollutants (especially methane, ozone, aerosols) and has designed a global mitigation strategy that maximizes co-benefits between air quality and climate policy. Transient climate model simulations allowed quantifying the impacts on temperature (e.g., reduction in global warming by 0.22K for the decade 2041-2050) and precipitation.
L. H. Baker, W. J. Collins, D. J. L. Olivié, R. Cherian, Ø. Hodnebrog, G. Myhre, and J. Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8201–8216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015, 2015
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We investigate the impact of removing land-based anthropogenic emissions of three aerosol species, using four fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Removing SO2 emissions leads to warming globally, strongest in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and an increase in NH precipitation. Organic and black carbon (OC, BC) have a weaker impact, and less certainty on the response; OC (BC) removal shows a weak overall warming (cooling), and both show small increases in precipitation globally.
M. Joshi, M. Stringer, K. van der Wiel, A. O'Callaghan, and S. Fueglistaler
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1157–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1157-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1157-2015, 2015
G. Myhre and B. H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2883–2888, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2883-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2883-2015, 2015
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Radiative forcing (RF) of black carbon (BC) in the atmosphere is estimated using radiative transfer codes of various complexities. Here we show that the two-stream radiative transfer codes used most in climate models give overly strong forward scattering, leading to enhanced absorption at the surface and overly weak absorption by BC. Such calculations are found to underestimate RF in all sky conditions by 10% for global mean, relative to the more sophisticated multi-stream model.
B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, A. Herber, Y. Kondo, S.-M. Li, N. Moteki, M. Koike, N. Oshima, J. P. Schwarz, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, M. Chin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, J. E. Penner, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12465–12477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12465-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12465-2014, 2014
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Far from black carbon (BC) emission sources, present climate models are unable to reproduce flight measurements. By comparing recent models with data, we find that the atmospheric lifetime of BC may be overestimated in models. By adjusting modeled BC concentrations to measurements in remote regions - over oceans and at high altitudes - we arrive at a reduced estimate for BC radiative forcing over the industrial era.
N. Rastak, S. Silvergren, P. Zieger, U. Wideqvist, J. Ström, B. Svenningsson, M. Maturilli, M. Tesche, A. M. L. Ekman, P. Tunved, and I. Riipinen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7445–7460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7445-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7445-2014, 2014
C. Wesslén, M. Tjernström, D. H. Bromwich, G. de Boer, A. M. L. Ekman, L.-S. Bai, and S.-H. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2605–2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2605-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2605-2014, 2014
S. D. D'Andrea, S. A. K. Häkkinen, D. M. Westervelt, C. Kuang, E. J. T. Levin, V. P. Kanawade, W. R. Leaitch, D. V. Spracklen, I. Riipinen, and J. R. Pierce
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11519–11534, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11519-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11519-2013, 2013
D. M. Westervelt, J. R. Pierce, I. Riipinen, W. Trivitayanurak, A. Hamed, M. Kulmala, A. Laaksonen, S. Decesari, and P. J. Adams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7645–7663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7645-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7645-2013, 2013
J. Zábori, R. Krejci, J. Ström, P. Vaattovaara, A. M. L. Ekman, M. E. Salter, E. M. Mårtensson, and E. D. Nilsson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4783–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4783-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4783-2013, 2013
M. S. Eide, S. B. Dalsøren, Ø. Endresen, B. Samset, G. Myhre, J. Fuglestvedt, and T. Berntsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4183–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4183-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4183-2013, 2013
P. Stier, N. A. J. Schutgens, N. Bellouin, H. Bian, O. Boucher, M. Chin, S. Ghan, N. Huneeus, S. Kinne, G. Lin, X. Ma, G. Myhre, J. E. Penner, C. A. Randles, B. Samset, M. Schulz, T. Takemura, F. Yu, H. Yu, and C. Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3245–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3245-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3245-2013, 2013
B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, M. Schulz, Y. Balkanski, S. Bauer, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, N. Bellouin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, S. Kinne, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, J. E. Penner, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2423–2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2423-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2423-2013, 2013
S. B. Dalsøren, B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, J. J. Corbett, R. Minjares, D. Lack, and J. S. Fuglestvedt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1941–1955, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1941-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1941-2013, 2013
G. Myhre, B. H. Samset, M. Schulz, Y. Balkanski, S. Bauer, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, N. Bellouin, M. Chin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, J. Feichter, S. J. Ghan, D. Hauglustaine, T. Iversen, S. Kinne, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, M. T. Lund, G. Luo, X. Ma, T. van Noije, J. E. Penner, P. J. Rasch, A. Ruiz, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, P. Wang, Z. Wang, L. Xu, H. Yu, F. Yu, J.-H. Yoon, K. Zhang, H. Zhang, and C. Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1853–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1853-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1853-2013, 2013
A. Kirkevåg, T. Iversen, Ø. Seland, C. Hoose, J. E. Kristjánsson, H. Struthers, A. M. L. Ekman, S. Ghan, J. Griesfeller, E. D. Nilsson, and M. Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 207–244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-207-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-207-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate and Earth System | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Polar winter climate change: strong local effects from sea ice loss, widespread consequences from warming seas
Limitations in the use of atmospheric CO2 observations to directly infer changes in the length of the biospheric carbon uptake period
Volcanic emission estimates from the inversion of ACTRIS lidar observations and their use for quantitative dispersion modeling
Emission inventory development for spatiotemporal release of vanadium from anthropogenic sources in China
Highly resolved satellite-remote-sensing-based land-use-change inventory yields weaker surface-albedo-induced global cooling
Investigating the limiting aircraft-design-dependent and environmental factors of persistent contrail formation
Measurement report: Can zenith wet delay from GNSS “see” atmospheric turbulence? Insights from case studies across diverse climate zones
Effects of 2010–2045 climate change on ozone levels in China under a carbon neutrality scenario: key meteorological parameters and processes
Cloud-radiation interactions amplify ozone pollution in a warming climate
Comment on "Can uncertainty in climate sensitivity be narrowed further?" by Sherwood and Forest (2024)
The Biogeophysical Effects of Carbon Fertilization of the Terrestrial Biosphere
Too cold, too saturated? Evaluating climate models at the gateway to the Arctic
Modelled surface climate response to effusive Icelandic volcanic eruptions: sensitivity to season and size
Contrasting the roles of regional anthropogenic aerosols from the western and eastern hemispheres in driving the 1980–2020 Pacific multi-decadal variations
A new method for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions in climate models
Climate variability can outweigh the influence of climate mean changes for extreme precipitation under global warming
Using a region-specific ice-nucleating particle parameterization improves the representation of Arctic clouds in a global climate model
Small emission sources in aggregate disproportionately account for a large majority of total methane emissions from the US oil and gas sector
Technical note: Recommendations for diagnosing cloud feedbacks and rapid cloud adjustments using cloud radiative kernels
The importance of stratocumulus clouds for projected warming patterns and circulation changes
Influence of modes of climate variability on stratospheric gravity waves in the tropics using Radio Occultation and Reanalysis Data
Satellite quantification of methane emissions from South American countries: a high-resolution inversion of TROPOMI and GOSAT observations
To what extent does the CO2 diurnal cycle impact flux estimates derived from global and regional inversions?
Can general circulation models (GCMs) represent cloud liquid water path adjustments to aerosol–cloud interactions?
Quantifying cloud masking in a single column
Constraining net long-term climate feedback from satellite-observed internal variability possible by the mid-2030s
Investigation of the characteristics of low-level jets over North America in a convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting simulation
Impacts of tropical cyclone–heat wave compound events on surface ozone in eastern China: comparison between the Yangtze River and Pearl River deltas
The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes surface warming relative to preindustrial conditions
A novel method for detecting tropopause structures based on the bi-Gaussian function
Unraveling the discrepancies between Eulerian and Lagrangian moisture tracking models in monsoon- and westerly-dominated basins of the Tibetan Plateau
Increasing aerosol direct effect despite declining global emissions in MPI-ESM1.2
Multi-scale variability of southeastern Australian wind resources
Parameterizations for global thundercloud corona discharge distributions
The importance of an informed choice of CO2-equivalence metrics for contrail avoidance
Relative humidity over ice as a key variable for Northern Hemisphere midlatitude tropopause inversion layers
Technical note: Posterior uncertainty estimation via a Monte Carlo procedure specialized for 4D-Var data assimilation
Understanding the role of contrails and contrail cirrus in climate change: a global perspective
Interannual variations in Siberian carbon uptake and carbon release period
Using historical temperature to constrain the climate sensitivity, the transient climate response, and aerosol-induced cooling
Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming
General circulation models simulate negative liquid water path–droplet number correlations, but anthropogenic aerosols still increase simulated liquid water path
Global scenarios of anthropogenic mercury emissions
Impact of Asian aerosols on the summer monsoon strongly modulated by regional precipitation biases
Opinion: Optimizing climate models with process knowledge, resolution, and artificial intelligence
Assessing methane emissions from collapsing Venezuelan oil production using TROPOMI
Simulation of ozone–vegetation coupling and feedback in China using multiple ozone damage schemes
Opinion: Can uncertainty in climate sensitivity be narrowed further?
Significant human health co-benefits of mitigating African emissions
Tuomas Naakka, Daniel Köhler, Kalle Nordling, Petri Räisänen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Bjørn H. Samset, Victoria A. Sinclair, Jennie L. Thomas, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8127–8145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025, 2025
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The effects of warmer sea surface temperatures and decreasing sea ice cover on polar climates have been studied using four climate models with identical prescribed changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover. The models predict similar changes in air temperature and precipitation in the polar regions in a warmer climate with less sea ice. However, the models disagree on how the atmospheric circulation, i.e. the large-scale winds, will change with warmer temperatures and less sea ice.
Theertha Kariyathan, Ana Bastos, Markus Reichstein, Wouter Peters, and Julia Marshall
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7863–7878, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7863-2025, 2025
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The carbon uptake period (CUP) is the time period when land absorbs more CO2 than it emits. While atmospheric CO2 mole fraction measurements can be used to assess CUP changes, atmospheric transport and asynchronous timing across regions reduce the accuracy of the estimates. Forward model experiments show that only ~ 50 % of prescribed shifts in CUP timing applied to surface fluxes (ΔCUPNEE) are captured in simulated CO2 mole fraction data at monitoring sites like the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory.
Anna Kampouri, Vassilis Amiridis, Thanasis Georgiou, Stavros Solomos, Anna Gialitaki, Maria Tsichla, Michael Rennie, Simona Scollo, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7343–7368, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7343-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7343-2025, 2025
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This study proposes a novel inverse modeling framework coupled with remote sensing data for improving volcanic ash dispersion forecasts, essential for aviation safety. By integrating FLEXPART dispersion model outputs with ground-based ACTRIS lidar observations, the approach estimates Etna's volcanic particle emissions and highlights a significant enhancement in the forecast accuracy.
Han Zhang, Baogang Zhang, Bo Jiang, Qimin Li, Xuewen Hu, and Yi Xing
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5577–5589, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5577-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5577-2025, 2025
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We developed vanadium emission inventories of anthropogenic sources in China for 2015–2019. We identified five major emission sources: coal combustion, oil burning, transportation, industrial manufacture, and waste handling. Emission outputs were calculated by integrating the emission factors and activity levels of vanadium-related processes. Our results identified the key emitters and highlighted the spatial and temporal patterns of vanadium release.
Xiaohu Jian, Xiaodong Zhang, Xinrui Liu, Kaijie Chen, Tao Huang, Shu Tao, Junfeng Liu, Hong Gao, Yuan Zhao, Ruiyu Zhugu, and Jianmin Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4251–4268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4251-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4251-2025, 2025
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We implemented a new global land-use-change (LUC) dataset from 1982 to 2010 into a compact earth system model and carried out extensive multiple model scenario simulations. Our result reveals that the global radiative forcing (RF) induced by LUC driving surface albedo change is −0.12 W m−2, 20 % lower than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and vegetation changes play a key role in RF evolution, which provides an important reference for the assessment of earth energy balance.
Liam Megill and Volker Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4131–4149, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4131-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4131-2025, 2025
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This study uses ERA5 data to better understand the relative importance of the factors limiting persistent contrail formation. We develop climatological relationships to estimate potential persistent contrail formation for existing as well as future aircraft and propulsion system designs. We identify latitudes and pressure levels where the introduction of novel aircraft designs would result in significant changes in potential persistent contrail formation compared to existing conventional aircraft.
Gaël Kermarrec, Xavier Calbet, Zhiguo Deng, and Cintia Carbajal Henken
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3567–3581, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3567-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3567-2025, 2025
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Atmospheric delays affect global navigation satellite system (GNSS) signals. This study analyses the wet delay, a variable component caused by atmospheric water vapor, using a novel filtering method to examine small-scale turbulent variations. Case studies at five global stations revealed daily and seasonal turbulence patterns. This research will improve water vapour and cloud models, enhance nowcasting, and refine stochastic modelling for GNSS and very long baseline interferometry.
Ling Kang, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Xu Yue, Yang Yang, and Ye Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3603–3621, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3603-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3603-2025, 2025
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Using the model of Global Change and Air Pollution version 2.0, climate change over 2010–2045 under a carbon neutrality scenario is simulated to increase summertime maximum daily 8 h average ozone (O3) levels in eastern China, the North China Plain, and the Yangtze River Delta by 2.3, 4.7, and 3.0 ppbv, respectively. Temperature, radiation, and relative humidity are the key meteorological parameters and net chemical production is the key process in climate-driven O3 increases in eastern China.
Shuyu Zhao, Tian Feng, Xuexi Tie, Biao Tian, Xiao Hu, Bo Hu, Dong Yang, Sinan Gu, and Minghu Ding
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-682, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-682, 2025
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This study investigated how cloud-radiation interactions influence ozone formation in a warming climate. Using measurements, reanalysis data and models, we found that cloud-radiation interactions can worsen O3 pollution and climate warming will amplify the influence. We highlight that climate change will pose greater challenges for China’s O3 pollution prevention and control, and actions such as reducing O3 precursors emissions and mitigating climate change are urgently needed.
Nicholas Lewis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1179, 2025
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The Opinion article that this Comment concerns challenged a 2022 study by this Comment's author that found a narrower and lower ECS level than a very influential 2020 study that had the same lead author as the Opinion article. This Comment shows that claims made in the Opinion article about that 2022 study are not true, explains why the Subjective Bayesian statistical methods favoured in the Opinion article are unreliable, and discusses structural uncertainties in climate models.
Robert James Allen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-32, 2025
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CMIP6 models are analyzed to quantify the biogeophysical (non-carbon cycle) and biogeochemical (enhanced carbon storage) effects of carbon fertilization at the time of CO2 quadrupling. The biogeophysical effects lead to relatively weak warming (0.16 ± 0.09 K ) largely due to decreases in surface latent heat flux associated with reduced canopy transpiration. Biogeochemical cooling associated with enhanced land carbon storage dominates at -1.38 K (-1.92 to -0.84 K).
Felix Pithan, Ann Kristin Naumann, and Marion Maturilli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3269–3285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3269-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3269-2025, 2025
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Representing the exchange of air masses between the Arctic and mid-latitudes and the associated cloud formation is difficult for climate models. We compare climate model output to temperature and humidity measurements from weather balloons to provide suggestions for model improvements. Cold biases mostly occur in air that is exported from the Arctic. Models that compute the number of ice particles in a cloud better represent humidity than models that assume a fixed number of ice particles.
Tómas Zoëga, Trude Storelvmo, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2989–3010, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2989-2025, 2025
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We use an Earth system model to systematically investigate the climate response to high-latitude effusive volcanic eruptions as a function of eruption season and size, with a focus on the Arctic. We find that different seasons strongly modulate the climate response, with Arctic surface warming observed in winter and cooling in summer. Additionally, as eruptions increase in terms of sulfur dioxide emissions, the climate response becomes increasingly insensitive to variations in emission strength.
Chenrui Diao, Yangyang Xu, Aixue Hu, and Zhili Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2167–2180, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2167-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2167-2025, 2025
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Industrial aerosol increases in Asia and reductions in North America and Europe in 1980–2020 influenced climate changes over the Pacific Ocean differently. Asian aerosols caused El Niño-like temperature patterns and slightly weakened the natural variation in the North Pacific, while reduced emissions of western countries led to extensive warming in middle–high latitudes of the North Pacific. Human impacts on the Pacific climate may change when emission reduction occurs over Asia in the future.
Brandon M. Duran, Casey J. Wall, Nicholas J. Lutsko, Takuro Michibata, Po-Lun Ma, Yi Qin, Margaret L. Duffy, Brian Medeiros, and Matvey Debolskiy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2123–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2123-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2123-2025, 2025
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We use satellite simulator data generated by global climate models to investigate how aerosol particles impact the radiative properties of liquid clouds. Specifically, we quantify the radiative perturbations arising from aerosol-driven changes in the number density of cloud droplets, the vertically integrated cloud water mass, and the cloud amount. Our results show that, in models, aerosol effects on the number density of cloud droplets contribute the most to anthropogenic climate forcing.
Kalle Nordling, Nora L. S. Fahrenbach, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1659–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025, 2025
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People experience daily weather, not changes in monthly averages. We investigate the likelihood of events, which occurred once every 10 years in the pre-industrial era. We analyze how summertime precipitation and daily maximum temperature events evolve. Our focus is on understanding the role of day-to-day variability in the change in the number of extreme weather days. We find that in most regions, a change in variability is the primary driver for change in summertime extreme precipitation.
Astrid B. Gjelsvik, Robert O. David, Tim Carlsen, Franziska Hellmuth, Stefan Hofer, Zachary McGraw, Harald Sodemann, and Trude Storelvmo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1617–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1617-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1617-2025, 2025
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Ice formation in clouds has a substantial impact on radiation and precipitation and must be realistically simulated in order to understand present and future Arctic climate. Rare aerosols known as ice-nucleating particles can play an important role in cloud ice formation, but their representation in global climate models is not well suited for the Arctic. In this study, the simulation of cloud phase is improved when the representation of these particles is constrained by Arctic observations.
James P. Williams, Mark Omara, Anthony Himmelberger, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Katlyn MacKay, Joshua Benmergui, Maryann Sargent, Steven C. Wofsy, Steven P. Hamburg, and Ritesh Gautam
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1513–1532, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1513-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1513-2025, 2025
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We utilize peer-reviewed facility-level oil and gas methane emission rate data gathered in prior work to estimate the relative contributions of methane sources emitting at different emission rates in the United States. We find that the majority of total methane emissions in the US oil and gas sector stem from a large number of small sources emitting in aggregate, corroborating findings from several other studies.
Mark D. Zelinka, Li-Wei Chao, Timothy A. Myers, Yi Qin, and Stephen A. Klein
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1477–1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1477-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1477-2025, 2025
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Clouds lie at the heart of uncertainty in both climate sensitivity and radiative forcing, making it imperative to properly diagnose their radiative effects. Here we provide a recommended methodology and code base for the community to use in performing such diagnoses using cloud radiative kernels. We show that properly accounting for changes in obscuration of lower-level clouds by upper-level clouds is important for accurate diagnosis and attribution of cloud feedbacks and adjustments.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Peer Nowack
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-221, 2025
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We explore how Pacific low-level clouds influence projections of regional climate change by adjusting a climate model to enhance low cloud response to surface temperatures. We find significant changes in projected warming patterns and circulation changes, under increased CO2 conditions. Our findings are supported by similar relationships across state-of-the-art climate models. These results highlight the importance of accurately representing clouds for predicting regional climate change impacts.
Toyese Tunde Ayorinde, Cristiano Max Wrasse, Hisao Takahashi, Luiz Fernando Sapucci, Cosme Alexandre Oliveira Barros Figueiredo, Diego Barros, Ligia Alves da Silva, Patrick Essien, and Anderson Vestena Bilibio
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4083, 2025
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We studied how the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) interacts with atmospheric gravity waves high in the sky and how global climate patterns like El Niño affect them. Using RO, ERA5, and NCEP reanalysis data, we found that the ITCZ shifts with seasons but stays strong year-round, influencing weather and energy flow. Our findings show how climate patterns shape weather systems and help predict changes, improving understanding of the atmosphere and its effects on global climate.
Sarah E. Hancock, Daniel J. Jacob, Zichong Chen, Hannah Nesser, Aaron Davitt, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Nicholas Balasus, Lucas A. Estrada, María Cazorla, Laura Dawidowski, Sebastián Diez, James D. East, Elise Penn, Cynthia A. Randles, John Worden, Ilse Aben, Robert J. Parker, and Joannes D. Maasakkers
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 797–817, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-797-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-797-2025, 2025
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We quantify 2021 methane emissions in South America at up to 25 km × 25 km resolution using satellite methane observations. We find a 55 % upward adjustment to anthropogenic emission inventories, including those reported to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change under the Paris Agreement. Our estimates match inventories for Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay but are much higher for other countries. Livestock emissions (65 % of anthropogenic emissions) show the largest discrepancies.
Saqr Munassar, Christian Rödenbeck, Michał Gałkowski, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, Santiago Botía, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 639–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, 2025
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CO2 mole fractions simulated over a global set of stations showed an overestimation of CO2 if the diurnal cycle is missing in biogenic fluxes. This leads to biases in the estimated fluxes derived from the regional-scale inversions. Interannual variability of estimated biogenic fluxes is also affected by the exclusion of the CO2 diurnal cycle. The findings point to the importance of including the diurnal variations of CO2 in the biogenic fluxes used as priors in global and regional inversions.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Meng Huang, Po-Lun Ma, Naser Mahfouz, Susanne E. Bauer, Susannah M. Burrows, Matthew W. Christensen, Sudhakar Dipu, Andrew Gettelman, L. Ruby Leung, Florian Tornow, Johannes Quaas, Adam C. Varble, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, and Youtong Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13633–13652, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13633-2024, 2024
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Stratocumulus clouds play a large role in Earth's climate by reflecting incoming solar energy back to space. Turbulence at stratocumulus cloud top mixes in dry, warm air, which can lead to cloud dissipation. This process is challenging for coarse-resolution global models to represent. We show that global models nevertheless agree well with our process understanding. Global models also think the process is less important for the climate than other lines of evidence have led us to conclude.
Lukas Kluft, Bjorn Stevens, Manfred Brath, and Stefan A. Buehler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3829, 2024
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Using a single column model, we investigate the effect of the vertical distribution of clouds on climate sensitivity. We show that, depending on their height, clouds can mask or unmask the radiative response of the clear-sky atmosphere. Our single column model yields an all-sky climate sensitivity of 2.2 K, slightly less than the clear-sky value. This value can be interpreted as a baseline to which changes in surface albedo and an assumed reduction in cloud albedo would add.
Alejandro Uribe, Frida A.-M. Bender, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13371–13384, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024, 2024
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Our study explores climate feedbacks, vital for understanding global warming. It links them to shifts in Earth's energy balance at the atmosphere's top due to natural temperature variations. It takes roughly 50 years to establish this connection. Combined satellite observations and reanalysis suggest that Earth cools more than expected under carbon dioxide influence. However, continuous satellite data until at least the mid-2030s are crucial for refining our understanding of climate feedbacks.
Xiao Ma, Yanping Li, Zhenhua Li, and Fei Huo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12013–12030, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12013-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12013-2024, 2024
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This study uses 4 km Weather Research and Forecasting simulations to investigate the features of low-level jets (LLJs) in North America. It identifies significant LLJ systems, such as the Great Plains LLJ. It also provides insight into LLJs poorly captured in coarser models, such as the northerly Quebec LLJ and the small-scale, low-level wind maxima around the Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, the study examines different physical mechanisms of forming three distinct types of LLJs.
Cuini Qi, Pinya Wang, Yang Yang, Huimin Li, Hui Zhang, Lili Ren, Xipeng Jin, Chenchao Zhan, Jianping Tang, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11775–11789, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11775-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11775-2024, 2024
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We investigate extremely hot weather impacts on surface ozone over the southeastern coast of China with and without tropical cyclones. Compared to hot days alone, ozone concentration decreased notably in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) but increased in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) during tropical cyclones and hot days. The YRD benefited from strong and clean sea winds aiding ozone elimination. In contrast, the PRD experienced strong northeasterly winds that potentially transport ozone pollution.
Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, Brian Soden, Amy Clement, Gabriel Vecchi, Sofia Menemenlis, and Wenchang Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11275–11283, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024, 2024
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The rapid global warming of 2023 has led to concerns that it could be externally driven. Here we show that climate models subject only to internal variability predict such warming spikes but rarely (p~1.6 %). However, when a prolonged La Niña immediately precedes an El Niño, as occurred leading up to 2023, such spikes are not uncommon (p~10.3 %). Virtually all of the spikes occur during an El Niño, strongly suggesting that internal variability drove the 2023 warming.
Robert J. Allen, Xueying Zhao, Cynthia A. Randles, Ryan J. Kramer, Bjørn H. Samset, and Christopher J. Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11207–11226, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024, 2024
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Present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes 28% (7–55%) of the surface warming associated with its longwave absorption. The precipitation increase associated with the longwave radiative effects of the present-day methane perturbation is also muted by shortwave absorption but not significantly so. Methane shortwave absorption also impacts the magnitude of its climate feedback parameter, largely through the cloud feedback.
Kun Zhang, Tao Luo, Xuebin Li, Shengcheng Cui, Ningquan Weng, Yinbo Huang, and Yingjian Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11157–11173, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11157-2024, 2024
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In order to deeply understand the formation mechanisms and evolution processes associated with vertical tropopause structures, this study proposes a new method for identifying the multiple characteristic parameters of vertical tropopause structures by fitting temperature profiles using the bi-Gaussian function. The identification results from the bi-Gaussian method are more reasonable and more consistent with the evolution process of atmospheric thermal stratifications.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Qiuhong Tang, Shibo Yao, Bo Sun, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10741–10758, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10741-2024, 2024
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For moisture tracking over the Tibetan Plateau, we recommend using high-resolution forcing datasets, prioritizing temporal resolution over spatial resolution for WAM2layers, while for FLEXPART coupled with WaterSip, we suggest applying bias corrections to optimize the filtering of precipitation particles and adjust evaporation estimates.
Antoine Hermant, Linnea Huusko, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10707–10715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10707-2024, 2024
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Aerosol particles, from natural and human sources, have a cooling effect on the climate, partially offsetting global warming. They do this through direct (sunlight reflection) and indirect (cloud property alteration) mechanisms. Using a global climate model, we found that, despite declining emissions, the direct effect of human aerosols has increased while the indirect effect has decreased, which is attributed to the shift in emissions from North America and Europe to Southeast Asia.
Claire L. Vincent and Andrew J. Dowdy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10209–10223, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10209-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10209-2024, 2024
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We investigate how wind speed at the height of a wind turbine changes during El Niño and La Niña years and with season and time of day in southeastern Australia. We found that El Niño and La Niña can cause average wind speed differences of around 1 m s-1 in some regions. The highest wind speeds occur in the afternoon or evening around mountains or the coast and during the night for inland areas. The results help show how placement of wind turbines can help balance electricity generation.
Sergio Soler, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Patrick Jöckel, Torsten Neubert, Olivier Chanrion, Victor Reglero, and Nikolai Østgaard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10225–10243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10225-2024, 2024
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Sudden local ozone (O3) enhancements have been reported in different regions of the world since the 1970s. While the hot channel of lightning strokes directly produce significant amounts of nitrogen oxide, no direct emission of O3 is expected. Corona discharges in convective active regions could explain local O3 increases, which remains unexplained. We present the first mathematical functions that relate the global annual frequency of in-cloud coronas with four sets of meteorological variables.
Audran Borella, Olivier Boucher, Keith P. Shine, Marc Stettler, Katsumasa Tanaka, Roger Teoh, and Nicolas Bellouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9401–9417, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, 2024
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This work studies how to compare the climate impact of the CO2 emitted and contrails formed by a flight. This is applied to contrail avoidance strategies that would decrease climate impact of flights by changing the trajectory of aircraft to avoid persistent contrail formation, at the risk of increasing CO2 emissions. We find that different comparison methods lead to different quantification of the total climate impact of a flight but lead to similar decisions of whether to reroute an aircraft.
Daniel Köhler, Philipp Reutter, and Peter Spichtinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10055–10072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10055-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10055-2024, 2024
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In this work, the influence of humidity on the properties of the tropopause is studied. The tropopause is the interface between the troposphere and the stratosphere and represents a barrier for the transport of air masses between the troposphere and the stratosphere. We consider not only the tropopause itself, but also a layer around it called the tropopause inversion layer (TIL). It is shown that the moister the underlying atmosphere is, the more this layer acts as a barrier.
Michael Stanley, Mikael Kuusela, Brendan Byrne, and Junjie Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9419–9433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9419-2024, 2024
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To serve the uncertainty quantification (UQ) needs of 4D-Var data assimilation (DA) practitioners, we describe and justify a UQ algorithm from carbon flux inversion and incorporate its sampling uncertainty into the final reported UQ. The algorithm is mathematically proved, and its performance is shown for a carbon flux observing system simulation experiment. These results legitimize and generalize this algorithm's current use and make available this effective algorithm to new DA domains.
Dharmendra Kumar Singh, Swarnali Sanyal, and Donald J. Wuebbles
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9219–9262, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9219-2024, 2024
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Radiative forcing of contrails could triple by 2050 due to increased air traffic and potential changes in flight altitudes. Factors like air traffic patterns, fuel efficiency, alternative fuels, and climate change further influence this impact. By highlighting gaps in knowledge and uncertainties, this research helps set priorities for future studies and assess strategies to mitigate the environmental impact of aviation emissions.
Dieu Anh Tran, Christoph Gerbig, Christian Rödenbeck, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8413–8440, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, 2024
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The analysis of the atmospheric CO2 record from the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO) in central Siberia shows significant increases in the length and amplitude of the CO2 uptake and release in the 2010–2021 period. The trend shows a stronger increase in carbon release amplitude compared to the uptake, suggesting that, despite enhanced growing season uptake, during this period climate warming did not elevate the annual net CO2 uptake as cold-season respirations also responded to the warming.
Olaf Morgenstern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8105–8123, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024, 2024
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I use errors in climate model simulations to derive correction factors for the impacts of greenhouse gases and particles that bring these simulated temperature fields into agreement with an observational reconstruction of the Earth's temperature. On average across eight models, a reduction by about one-half of the particle-induced cooling would be required, causing only 0.24 K of cooling since 1850–1899. The greenhouse gas warming simulated by several highly sensitive models would also reduce.
Donghuan Li, Tianjun Zhou, Youcun Qi, Liwei Zou, Chao Li, Wenxia Zhang, and Xiaolong Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7347–7358, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024, 2024
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Two sets of climate model simulations are used to investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic factors of future change in cold extremes in East Asia. Dynamic factor accounted for over 80 % of cold-month temperature anomalies in past 50 years. The intensity of cold extreme is expected to decrease by 5 ℃, with thermodynamic factor contributing ~ 75 % by the end of the 21st century. Changes in dynamic factor are driven by an upward trend of positive Arctic Oscillation-like sea level pressure pattern.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Edward Gryspeerdt, Sudhakar Dipu, Johannes Quaas, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Florian Tornow, Susanne E. Bauer, Andrew Gettelman, Yi Ming, Youtong Zheng, Po-Lun Ma, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Matthew W. Christensen, Adam C. Varble, L. Ruby Leung, Xiaohong Liu, David Neubauer, Daniel G. Partridge, Philip Stier, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7331–7345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, 2024
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Human activities release copious amounts of small particles called aerosols into the atmosphere. These particles change how much sunlight clouds reflect to space, an important human perturbation of the climate, whose magnitude is highly uncertain. We found that the latest climate models show a negative correlation but a positive causal relationship between aerosols and cloud water. This means we need to be very careful when we interpret observational studies that can only see correlation.
Flora Maria Brocza, Peter Rafaj, Robert Sander, Fabian Wagner, and Jenny Marie Jones
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7385–7404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7385-2024, 2024
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To understand how atmospheric mercury levels will change in the future, we model how anthropogenic Hg releases will change following developments in human energy use and mercury use and efforts to reduce pollution and battle climate change. Overall, the findings emphasize that it will be necessary to implement targeted Hg control measures in addition to stringent climate and clean air policies to achieve significant reductions in Hg emissions.
Zhen Liu, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Laura J. Wilcox
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7227–7252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, 2024
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The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model-simulated spatio-temporal variability in the climatological monsoon precipitation across Asia, which critically modulates the efficacy of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, the predominant driver of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South Asia and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response.
Tapio Schneider, L. Ruby Leung, and Robert C. J. Wills
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7041–7062, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7041-2024, 2024
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Climate models are crucial for predicting climate change in detail. This paper proposes a balanced approach to improving their accuracy by combining traditional process-based methods with modern artificial intelligence (AI) techniques while maximizing the resolution to allow for ensemble simulations. The authors propose using AI to learn from both observational and simulated data while incorporating existing physical knowledge to reduce data demands and improve climate prediction reliability.
Brian Nathan, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Stijn Naus, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Lucas A. Estrada, Alba Lorente, Tobias Borsdorff, Robert J. Parker, and Ilse Aben
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6845–6863, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6845-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6845-2024, 2024
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Venezuela's Lake Maracaibo region is notoriously hard to observe from space and features intensive oil exploitation, although production has strongly decreased in recent years. We estimate methane emissions using 2018–2020 TROPOMI satellite observations with national and regional transport models. Despite the production decrease, we find relatively constant emissions from Lake Maracaibo between 2018 and 2020, indicating that there could be large emissions from abandoned infrastructure.
Jiachen Cao, Xu Yue, and Mingrui Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3973–3987, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, 2024
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We implemented two widely used ozone damage schemes into a same regional model. Although the two schemes yielded distinct ozone vegetation damages, they predicted similar feedbacks to surface air temperature and ozone air quality in China. Our results highlighted the significance of ozone pollution control given its detrimental impacts on ecosystem functions, contributions to global warming, and amplifications of ozone pollution through ozone–vegetation coupling.
Steven C. Sherwood and Chris E. Forest
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2679–2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2679-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2679-2024, 2024
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The most fundamental parameter used to gauge the severity of future climate change is the so-called equilibrium climate sensitivity, which measures the warming that would ultimately occur due to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Due to recent advances it is now thought to probably lie in the range 2.5–4 °C. We discuss this and the issues involved in evaluating and using the number, pointing to some pitfalls in current efforts but also possibilities for further progress.
Christopher D. Wells, Matthew Kasoar, Majid Ezzati, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1025–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1025-2024, 2024
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Human-driven emissions of air pollutants, mostly caused by burning fossil fuels, impact both the climate and human health. Millions of deaths each year are caused by air pollution globally, and the future trends are uncertain. Here, we use a global climate model to study the effect of African pollutant emissions on surface level air pollution, and resultant impacts on human health, in several future emission scenarios. We find much lower health impacts under cleaner, lower-emission futures.
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Short summary
In 2020, regulations by the International Maritime Organization aimed to reduce aerosol emissions from ships. These aerosols previously had a cooling effect, which the regulations might reduce, revealing more greenhouse gas warming. Here we find that, while there is regional warming, the global 2020–2040 temperature rise is only +0.03 °C. This small change is difficult to distinguish from natural climate variability, indicating the regulations have had a limited effect on observed warming to date.
In 2020, regulations by the International Maritime Organization aimed to reduce aerosol...
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