Articles | Volume 24, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6071-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6071-2024
Research article
 | 
27 May 2024
Research article |  | 27 May 2024

Global aviation contrail climate effects from 2019 to 2021

Roger Teoh, Zebediah Engberg, Ulrich Schumann, Christiane Voigt, Marc Shapiro, Susanne Rohs, and Marc E. J. Stettler

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Cited articles

Agarwal, A., Meijer, V. R., Eastham, S. D., Speth, R. L., and Barrett, S. R. H.: Reanalysis-driven simulations may overestimate persistent contrail formation by 100–250 %, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/AC38D9, 2022. 
Bickel, M.: Climate Impact of Contrail Cirrus, PhD thesis/dissertation, Faculty of Physics, LMU Munich, https://doi.org/10.57676/MZMG-R403, 2023.​​​​​​​ 
Bickel, M., Ponater, M., Bock, L., Burkhardt, U., and Reineke, S.: Estimating the Effective Radiative Forcing of Contrail Cirrus, J. Climate, 33, 1991–2005, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0467.1, 2019. 
Bier, A. and Burkhardt, U.: Impact of Parametrizing Microphysical Processes in the Jet and Vortex Phase on Contrail Cirrus Properties and Radiative Forcing, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 127, e2022JD036677, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036677, 2022.​​​​​​​ 
Bock, L. and Burkhardt, U.: Reassessing properties and radiative forcing of contrail cirrus using a climate model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 9717–9736, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025112, 2016a. 
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Short summary
The radiative forcing (RF) due to aviation contrails is comparable to that caused by CO2. We estimate that global contrail net RF in 2019 was 62.1 mW m−2. This is ~1/2 the previous best estimate for 2018. Contrail RF varies regionally due to differences in conditions required for persistent contrails. COVID-19 reduced contrail RF by 54% in 2020 relative to 2019. Globally, 2 % of all flights account for 80 % of the annual contrail energy forcing, suggesting a opportunity to mitigate contrail RF.
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