Articles | Volume 24, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6071-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6071-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 May 2024
Research article |
| 27 May 2024
| 27 May 2024
Global aviation contrail climate effects from 2019 to 2021
Roger Teoh
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
Zebediah Engberg
Breakthrough Energy, 4110 Carillon Point, Kirkland, WA 98033, United States
Ulrich Schumann
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, 82234 Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Christiane Voigt
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, 82234 Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, University Mainz, 55099 Mainz, Germany
Marc Shapiro
Breakthrough Energy, 4110 Carillon Point, Kirkland, WA 98033, United States
Susanne Rohs
IEK-8 Troposphäre, Institut für Energie and Klimaforschung, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany
Marc E. J. Stettler
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
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Cited
68 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Regional and seasonal impact of hydrogen propulsion systems on potential contrail cirrus cover S. Kaufmann et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeaoa.2024.100298
- The Hitchhiker’s Guide to challenges in transport policy research: Towards ANSWERing questions regarding life, mobility, and everything S. Wandelt et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2025.104650
- Sustainable Aviation Fuel Deployment Strategies in Europe: Supply Chain Implications and Climate Benefits E. Woeldgen et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c02364
- Zero-dimensional contrail models could underpredict lifetime optical depth C. Akhtar Martínez et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12875-2025
- Modeling and verifying ice supersaturated regions in the ARPEGE model for persistent contrail forecast S. Arriolabengoa et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18051-2025
- Evaluating soft and hard contrail avoidance strategies in commercial flight planning: Implementation and effectiveness analysis A. Martin Frias et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2026.103089
- The subtleties of three-dimensional radiative effects in contrails and cirrus clouds J. Carles et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13953-2025
- Cutting aircraft soot emissions is not enough to curb contrail clouds https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-026-00931-z
- A combined observational and modelling approach to evaluate aerosol–cirrus interactions at high and mid-latitudes E. De La Torre Castro et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5879-2026
- Directional detail modeling and fusion for fine segmentation of aircraft contrails in FY-4B/AGRI visible imagery P. Hao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2026.102114
- An updated microphysical model for particle activation in contrails: the role of volatile plume particles J. Ponsonby et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18617-2025
- Forecasting contrail climate forcing for flight planning and air traffic management applications: the CocipGrid model in pycontrails 0.51.0 Z. Engberg et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025
- Technical note: Hybrid machine learning model for bias correction of UTLS relative humidity against IAGOS observations in ERA5 reanalysis M. Antonopoulos et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4771-2026
- Speed reduction in aviation: A double dividend for decarbonization J. Jarin https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2026.102095
- Private aviation is making a growing contribution to climate change S. Gössling et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01775-z
- Fluid-structure interaction in turbine blade under different sustainable aviation fuel: a featured study of mechanical behavior W. Faizal et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2025.137027
- Machine learning for improvement of upper-tropospheric relative humidity in ERA5 weather model data Z. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2845-2025
- Trade-offs in aviation impacts on climate favour non-CO2 mitigation M. Prather et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09198-2
- Measurements of particle emissions of an A350-941 burning 100 % sustainable aviation fuels in cruise R. Dischl et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11255-2024
- What role for aviation in climate policy? S. Proost https://doi.org/10.1186/s41072-026-00230-w
- Improving reanalysis weather for contrail validation by incorporating satellite observations S. Geraedts et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/jecats-1-2-2026
- The Intersection of Civil Aviation and the Tourism Industry: A Bibliometric Analysis M. Kınıklı & Ç. Kızılgeçi https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1772203
- AIRTRAC v2.0: a Lagrangian aerosol tagging submodel for the analysis of aviation SO4 transport patterns J. Maruhashi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2747-2026
- Ground-based contrail observations: comparisons with reanalysis weather data and contrail model simulations J. Low et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-37-2025
- Satellite-based estimation of high-altitude ice cloud radiative forcing derived through a Rapid Contrail-RF Estimation Approach E. Dimitropoulou et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-437-2026
- Concept of risk-aware contrail avoidance strategies A. Borella et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/jecats-1-3-2026
- Quantification of the radiative forcing of contrails embedded in cirrus clouds T. Seelig et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66231-8
- Most long-lived contrails form within cirrus clouds with uncertain climate impact A. Petzold et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65532-2
- Continued global warming from aviation even under high-ambition mitigation scenarios B. Aamaas et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101451
- Modelling contrail cirrus using a double-moment cloud microphysics scheme in the UK Met Office Unified Model W. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-14153-2025
- Targeted use of paraffinic kerosene: Potentials and implications G. Quante et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeaoa.2024.100279
- Solving aviation’s climate-action conundrum C. Voigt https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-02129-1
- Lightweight climate models could be useful for assessing aviation mitigation strategies and moving beyond the CO2-equivalence metrics debate S. Arriolabengoa et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01888-5
- Virtual Reality as a Green Tourism Alternative: Social Acceptance and Perception K. Stecuła & M. Naramski https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177722
- Description and evaluation of a new contrail cirrus parameterization in the ARPEGE-Climat atmospheric model M. Perini et al. https://doi.org/10.5802/crgeos.312
- Substantial aircraft contrail formation at low soot emission levels C. Voigt et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10286-0
- Using novel methods to model non-carbon dioxide (non-CO2) emissions and associated climate response of real-world flights C. Gallagher et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.148791
- On the Weather Impact of Contrails: New Insights from Coupled ICON–CoCiP Simulations U. Schumann & A. Seifert https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18571-2025
- OBSERVATIONS AND MULTIVARIATE ANALYSES OF AVIATION CONTRAILS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS CONDUCTED BY LATMOS, OPGC AND LAMP IN FRANCE F. Mandija et al. https://doi.org/10.67537/ajnts3102020
- Identification of Dihydropentalenes as Products of the Molecular-Weight Growth Reaction of Cyclopentadienyl Plus Propargyl N. Hansen et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jpca.4c06549
- Drivers of global tourism carbon emissions Y. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54582-7
- An adaptive segmentation approach for contrail detection in meteosat second generation satellite imagery V. Santos Gabriel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-3271-2026
- Influence of temperature and humidity on contrail formation regions in the general circulation model EMAC: a spring case study P. Peter et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5911-2025
- Investigating the limiting aircraft-design-dependent and environmental factors of persistent contrail formation L. Megill & V. Grewe https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4131-2025
- Bio jet fuel potentials in Europe from perennial grasses from abandoned cropland C. Iordan & M. Morales https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2026.109073
- Comparison of Identified Ice Supersaturated Regions for Contrail Avoidance Using Three Standard Weather Forecast Databases A. Rose-Tejwani et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16020149
- Factors limiting contrail detection in satellite imagery O. Driver et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-1115-2025
- The Prospects and Challenges of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) for Clean Combustion in Gas Turbine Engines: A Review S. Dey et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.5c05223
- The social costs of aviation CO2 and contrail cirrus D. Johansson et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64355-5
- Investigating the development of persistent contrails in ice supersaturated regions with cloudy backgrounds using ICON-LEM S. Marjani et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-10695-2026
- Observing long-lived longwave contrail forcing A. Sonabend-W et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1951-2026
- An integrated framework for the economic and environmental assessment of retrofitted hydrogen-powered aircraft S. Rostami et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2025.104947
- Global Impact of Aviation Contrails O. Pleter & C. Constantinescu https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace13040324
- A manually labeled contrail dataset from MSG/SEVIRI V. Santos Gabriel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2397-2026
- Fuel sulfur content can modulate contrail ice crystal numbers R. Dischl et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02951-5
- A Contrail Life Cycle Model with Interaction of Overlapping Contrails J. Rosenow & M. Luo https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace13020164
- Aligning the Aviation Industry with Global Climate Goals: The Role of Pricing Mechanisms V. Bernardo et al. https://doi.org/10.1086/742030
- Insights and innovations to mitigate aviation climate impact by 2030 K. Tait et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44172-024-00290-5
- GVCCS: a dataset for contrail identification and tracking on visible whole sky camera sequences G. Jarry et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-1037-2026
- Predicting ice supersaturation for contrail avoidance: ensemble forecasting using ICON with two-moment ice microphysics M. Hanst et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17253-2025
- Advancing regulatory aircraft nvPM sampling and measurement practices: Uncertainty quantification and recommendations E. Durand et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaerosci.2026.106789
- Pathways for including non-carbon dioxide aviation climate effects in the European Emission Trading System V. Grewe et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03265-w
- The ice supersaturation biases limiting contrail modelling are structured around extratropical depressions O. Driver et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16411-2025
- Segregated supply of Sustainable Aviation Fuel to reduce contrail energy forcing – demonstration and potentials G. Quante et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jatrs.2024.100049
- Facilitating Climate-Friendly Aviation: Spatial-Frequency Synergy for Contrail Detection in Remote Sensing Imagery R. Tang et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2025.3638952
- Large carbon dioxide emissions avoidance potential in improved commercial air transport efficiency S. Gössling et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03069-4
- Aviation passenger carbon footprint calculator with comprehensive emissions, life cycle coverage, and historical adjustment F. McFall et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02847-4
- Nighttime Contrail Characterization from Multisource Lidar and Meteorological Observations F. Mandija et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18020210
68 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Regional and seasonal impact of hydrogen propulsion systems on potential contrail cirrus cover S. Kaufmann et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeaoa.2024.100298
- The Hitchhiker’s Guide to challenges in transport policy research: Towards ANSWERing questions regarding life, mobility, and everything S. Wandelt et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2025.104650
- Sustainable Aviation Fuel Deployment Strategies in Europe: Supply Chain Implications and Climate Benefits E. Woeldgen et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c02364
- Zero-dimensional contrail models could underpredict lifetime optical depth C. Akhtar Martínez et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12875-2025
- Modeling and verifying ice supersaturated regions in the ARPEGE model for persistent contrail forecast S. Arriolabengoa et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18051-2025
- Evaluating soft and hard contrail avoidance strategies in commercial flight planning: Implementation and effectiveness analysis A. Martin Frias et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2026.103089
- The subtleties of three-dimensional radiative effects in contrails and cirrus clouds J. Carles et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13953-2025
- Cutting aircraft soot emissions is not enough to curb contrail clouds https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-026-00931-z
- A combined observational and modelling approach to evaluate aerosol–cirrus interactions at high and mid-latitudes E. De La Torre Castro et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5879-2026
- Directional detail modeling and fusion for fine segmentation of aircraft contrails in FY-4B/AGRI visible imagery P. Hao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2026.102114
- An updated microphysical model for particle activation in contrails: the role of volatile plume particles J. Ponsonby et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18617-2025
- Forecasting contrail climate forcing for flight planning and air traffic management applications: the CocipGrid model in pycontrails 0.51.0 Z. Engberg et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025
- Technical note: Hybrid machine learning model for bias correction of UTLS relative humidity against IAGOS observations in ERA5 reanalysis M. Antonopoulos et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4771-2026
- Speed reduction in aviation: A double dividend for decarbonization J. Jarin https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2026.102095
- Private aviation is making a growing contribution to climate change S. Gössling et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01775-z
- Fluid-structure interaction in turbine blade under different sustainable aviation fuel: a featured study of mechanical behavior W. Faizal et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2025.137027
- Machine learning for improvement of upper-tropospheric relative humidity in ERA5 weather model data Z. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2845-2025
- Trade-offs in aviation impacts on climate favour non-CO2 mitigation M. Prather et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09198-2
- Measurements of particle emissions of an A350-941 burning 100 % sustainable aviation fuels in cruise R. Dischl et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11255-2024
- What role for aviation in climate policy? S. Proost https://doi.org/10.1186/s41072-026-00230-w
- Improving reanalysis weather for contrail validation by incorporating satellite observations S. Geraedts et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/jecats-1-2-2026
- The Intersection of Civil Aviation and the Tourism Industry: A Bibliometric Analysis M. Kınıklı & Ç. Kızılgeçi https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1772203
- AIRTRAC v2.0: a Lagrangian aerosol tagging submodel for the analysis of aviation SO4 transport patterns J. Maruhashi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2747-2026
- Ground-based contrail observations: comparisons with reanalysis weather data and contrail model simulations J. Low et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-37-2025
- Satellite-based estimation of high-altitude ice cloud radiative forcing derived through a Rapid Contrail-RF Estimation Approach E. Dimitropoulou et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-437-2026
- Concept of risk-aware contrail avoidance strategies A. Borella et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/jecats-1-3-2026
- Quantification of the radiative forcing of contrails embedded in cirrus clouds T. Seelig et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66231-8
- Most long-lived contrails form within cirrus clouds with uncertain climate impact A. Petzold et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65532-2
- Continued global warming from aviation even under high-ambition mitigation scenarios B. Aamaas et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101451
- Modelling contrail cirrus using a double-moment cloud microphysics scheme in the UK Met Office Unified Model W. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-14153-2025
- Targeted use of paraffinic kerosene: Potentials and implications G. Quante et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeaoa.2024.100279
- Solving aviation’s climate-action conundrum C. Voigt https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-02129-1
- Lightweight climate models could be useful for assessing aviation mitigation strategies and moving beyond the CO2-equivalence metrics debate S. Arriolabengoa et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01888-5
- Virtual Reality as a Green Tourism Alternative: Social Acceptance and Perception K. Stecuła & M. Naramski https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177722
- Description and evaluation of a new contrail cirrus parameterization in the ARPEGE-Climat atmospheric model M. Perini et al. https://doi.org/10.5802/crgeos.312
- Substantial aircraft contrail formation at low soot emission levels C. Voigt et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10286-0
- Using novel methods to model non-carbon dioxide (non-CO2) emissions and associated climate response of real-world flights C. Gallagher et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.148791
- On the Weather Impact of Contrails: New Insights from Coupled ICON–CoCiP Simulations U. Schumann & A. Seifert https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18571-2025
- OBSERVATIONS AND MULTIVARIATE ANALYSES OF AVIATION CONTRAILS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS CONDUCTED BY LATMOS, OPGC AND LAMP IN FRANCE F. Mandija et al. https://doi.org/10.67537/ajnts3102020
- Identification of Dihydropentalenes as Products of the Molecular-Weight Growth Reaction of Cyclopentadienyl Plus Propargyl N. Hansen et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jpca.4c06549
- Drivers of global tourism carbon emissions Y. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54582-7
- An adaptive segmentation approach for contrail detection in meteosat second generation satellite imagery V. Santos Gabriel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-3271-2026
- Influence of temperature and humidity on contrail formation regions in the general circulation model EMAC: a spring case study P. Peter et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5911-2025
- Investigating the limiting aircraft-design-dependent and environmental factors of persistent contrail formation L. Megill & V. Grewe https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4131-2025
- Bio jet fuel potentials in Europe from perennial grasses from abandoned cropland C. Iordan & M. Morales https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2026.109073
- Comparison of Identified Ice Supersaturated Regions for Contrail Avoidance Using Three Standard Weather Forecast Databases A. Rose-Tejwani et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16020149
- Factors limiting contrail detection in satellite imagery O. Driver et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-1115-2025
- The Prospects and Challenges of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) for Clean Combustion in Gas Turbine Engines: A Review S. Dey et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.5c05223
- The social costs of aviation CO2 and contrail cirrus D. Johansson et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64355-5
- Investigating the development of persistent contrails in ice supersaturated regions with cloudy backgrounds using ICON-LEM S. Marjani et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-10695-2026
- Observing long-lived longwave contrail forcing A. Sonabend-W et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1951-2026
- An integrated framework for the economic and environmental assessment of retrofitted hydrogen-powered aircraft S. Rostami et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2025.104947
- Global Impact of Aviation Contrails O. Pleter & C. Constantinescu https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace13040324
- A manually labeled contrail dataset from MSG/SEVIRI V. Santos Gabriel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2397-2026
- Fuel sulfur content can modulate contrail ice crystal numbers R. Dischl et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02951-5
- A Contrail Life Cycle Model with Interaction of Overlapping Contrails J. Rosenow & M. Luo https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace13020164
- Aligning the Aviation Industry with Global Climate Goals: The Role of Pricing Mechanisms V. Bernardo et al. https://doi.org/10.1086/742030
- Insights and innovations to mitigate aviation climate impact by 2030 K. Tait et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44172-024-00290-5
- GVCCS: a dataset for contrail identification and tracking on visible whole sky camera sequences G. Jarry et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-1037-2026
- Predicting ice supersaturation for contrail avoidance: ensemble forecasting using ICON with two-moment ice microphysics M. Hanst et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17253-2025
- Advancing regulatory aircraft nvPM sampling and measurement practices: Uncertainty quantification and recommendations E. Durand et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaerosci.2026.106789
- Pathways for including non-carbon dioxide aviation climate effects in the European Emission Trading System V. Grewe et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03265-w
- The ice supersaturation biases limiting contrail modelling are structured around extratropical depressions O. Driver et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16411-2025
- Segregated supply of Sustainable Aviation Fuel to reduce contrail energy forcing – demonstration and potentials G. Quante et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jatrs.2024.100049
- Facilitating Climate-Friendly Aviation: Spatial-Frequency Synergy for Contrail Detection in Remote Sensing Imagery R. Tang et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2025.3638952
- Large carbon dioxide emissions avoidance potential in improved commercial air transport efficiency S. Gössling et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03069-4
- Aviation passenger carbon footprint calculator with comprehensive emissions, life cycle coverage, and historical adjustment F. McFall et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02847-4
- Nighttime Contrail Characterization from Multisource Lidar and Meteorological Observations F. Mandija et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18020210
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 02 Aug 2026
Short summary
The radiative forcing (RF) due to aviation contrails is comparable to that caused by CO2. We estimate that global contrail net RF in 2019 was 62.1 mW m−2. This is ~1/2 the previous best estimate for 2018. Contrail RF varies regionally due to differences in conditions required for persistent contrails. COVID-19 reduced contrail RF by 54% in 2020 relative to 2019. Globally, 2 % of all flights account for 80 % of the annual contrail energy forcing, suggesting a opportunity to mitigate contrail RF.
The radiative forcing (RF) due to aviation contrails is comparable to that caused by CO2. We...
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