Articles | Volume 21, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11423-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11423-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
ACP Letters
| Highlight paper
| 
30 Jul 2021
ACP Letters | Highlight paper |
| 30 Jul 2021
| 30 Jul 2021
Better representation of dust can improve climate models with too weak an African monsoon
Yves Balkanski
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,
CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Rémy Bonnet
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université-CNRS, Paris,
France
Olivier Boucher
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université-CNRS, Paris,
France
Ramiro Checa-Garcia
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,
CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Jérôme Servonnat
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,
CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Related authors
Siqing Xu, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Yves Balkanski, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Liang Wan, and Jean Sciare
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3382, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Prescribing a fixed maximum grass density in the ORCHIDEE model limits its ability to capture grassland dynamics, leading to unrealistic mortality, especially in semi-arid grasslands. We proposed a dynamic density approach where a positive density-precipitation relationship emerges. This method significantly reduces mortality, sustains productivity, and raises the aridity threshold above which frequent mortality events occur in grasslands.
Nikolaos Evangeliou, Ondřej Tichý, Marit Svendby Otervik, Sabine Eckhardt, Yves Balkanski, and Didier A. Hauglustaine
Aerosol Research, 3, 155–174, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-3-155-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-3-155-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The COVID-19 lockdown measures in 2020 reduced emissions of various substances, improving air quality. However, PM2.5 stayed unchanged due to NH3 and related chemical transformations. Higher humidity favoured more SO42- production, as did the accumulated NH3. Excess NH3 reacted with HNO3 to make NO3-. In high-NH3 conditions such as those in 2020, a small reduction in NOx levels drove faster oxidation of NO3- and slower deposition of total inorganic NO3-, causing high secondary PM2.5.
Ondřej Tichý, Sabine Eckhardt, Yves Balkanski, Didier Hauglustaine, and Nikolaos Evangeliou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15235–15252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We show declining trends in NH3 emissions over Europe for 2013–2020 using advanced dispersion and inverse modelling and satellite measurements from CrIS. Emissions decreased by −26% since 2013, showing that the abatement strategies adopted by the European Union have been very efficient. Ammonia emissions are low in winter and peak in summer due to temperature-dependent soil volatilization. The largest decreases were observed in central and western Europe in countries with high emissions.
María Gonçalves Ageitos, Vincenzo Obiso, Ron L. Miller, Oriol Jorba, Martina Klose, Matt Dawson, Yves Balkanski, Jan Perlwitz, Sara Basart, Enza Di Tomaso, Jerónimo Escribano, Francesca Macchia, Gilbert Montané, Natalie M. Mahowald, Robert O. Green, David R. Thompson, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8623–8657, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8623-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Dust aerosols affect our climate differently depending on their mineral composition. We include dust mineralogy in an atmospheric model considering two existing soil maps, which still have large associated uncertainties. The soil data and the distribution of the minerals in different aerosol sizes are key to our model performance. We find significant regional variations in climate-relevant variables, which supports including mineralogy in our current models and the need for improved soil maps.
Adrian Chappell, Nicholas Webb, Mark Hennen, Charles Zender, Philippe Ciais, Kerstin Schepanski, Brandon Edwards, Nancy Ziegler, Sandra Jones, Yves Balkanski, Daniel Tong, John Leys, Stephan Heidenreich, Robert Hynes, David Fuchs, Zhenzhong Zeng, Marie Ekström, Matthew Baddock, Jeffrey Lee, and Tarek Kandakji
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-337, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-337, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Dust emissions influence global climate while simultaneously reducing the productive potential and resilience of landscapes to climate stressors, together impacting food security and human health. Our results indicate that tuning dust emission models to dust in the atmosphere has hidden dust emission modelling weaknesses and its poor performance. Our new approach will reduce uncertainty and driven by prognostic albedo improve Earth System Models of aerosol effects on future environmental change.
Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Yves Balkanski, Samuel Albani, Tommi Bergman, Ken Carslaw, Anne Cozic, Chris Dearden, Beatrice Marticorena, Martine Michou, Twan van Noije, Pierre Nabat, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Joseph M. Prospero, Philippe Le Sager, Michael Schulz, and Catherine Scott
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10295–10335, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Thousands of tons of dust are emitted into the atmosphere every year, producing important impacts on the Earth system. However, current global climate models are not yet able to reproduce dust emissions, transport and depositions with the desirable accuracy. Our study analyses five different Earth system models to report aspects to be improved to reproduce better available observations, increase the consistency between models and therefore decrease the current uncertainties.
Jasper F. Kok, Adeyemi A. Adebiyi, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Mian Chin, Peter R. Colarco, Douglas S. Hamilton, Yue Huang, Akinori Ito, Martina Klose, Danny M. Leung, Longlei Li, Natalie M. Mahowald, Ron L. Miller, Vincenzo Obiso, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Adriana Rocha-Lima, Jessica S. Wan, and Chloe A. Whicker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8127–8167, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8127-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8127-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust interacts with virtually every component of the Earth system, including the climate system. We develop a new methodology to represent the global dust cycle that integrates observational constraints on the properties and abundance of desert dust with global atmospheric model simulations. We show that the resulting representation of the global dust cycle is more accurate than what can be obtained from a large number of current climate global atmospheric models.
Jasper F. Kok, Adeyemi A. Adebiyi, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Mian Chin, Peter R. Colarco, Douglas S. Hamilton, Yue Huang, Akinori Ito, Martina Klose, Longlei Li, Natalie M. Mahowald, Ron L. Miller, Vincenzo Obiso, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Adriana Rocha-Lima, and Jessica S. Wan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8169–8193, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8169-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The many impacts of dust on the Earth system depend on dust mineralogy, which varies between dust source regions. We constrain the contribution of the world’s main dust source regions by integrating dust observations with global model simulations. We find that Asian dust contributes more and that North African dust contributes less than models account for. We obtain a dataset of each source region’s contribution to the dust cycle that can be used to constrain dust impacts on the Earth system.
Pascale Braconnot, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Anne Cozic, Masa Kageyama, Adriana Sima, Olivier Marti, and Jean-Yves Peterschmitt
Clim. Past, 17, 1091–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how mid-Holocene dust reduction affects the Earth’s energetics from a suite of climate simulations. Our analyses confirm the peculiar role of the dust radiative effect over bright surfaces such as African deserts. We highlight a strong dependence on the dust pattern. The relative dust forcing between West Africa and the Middle East impacts the relative response of Indian and African monsoons and between the western tropical Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional circulation.
Wei Min Hao, Matthew C. Reeves, L. Scott Baggett, Yves Balkanski, Philippe Ciais, Bryce L. Nordgren, Alexander Petkov, Rachel E. Corley, Florent Mouillot, Shawn P. Urbanski, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 18, 2559–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2559-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the trends in the spatial and temporal distribution of the area burned in northern Eurasia from 2002 to 2016. The annual area burned in this region declined by 53 % during the 15-year period under analysis. Grassland fires in Kazakhstan dominated the fire activity, comprising 47 % of the area burned but accounting for 84 % of the decline. A wetter climate and the increase in grazing livestock in Kazakhstan are the major factors contributing to the decline in the area burned.
Nikolaos Evangeliou, Yves Balkanski, Sabine Eckhardt, Anne Cozic, Martin Van Damme, Pierre-François Coheur, Lieven Clarisse, Mark W. Shephard, Karen E. Cady-Pereira, and Didier Hauglustaine
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4431–4451, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4431-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4431-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ammonia, a substance that has played a key role in sustaining life, has been increasing in the atmosphere, affecting climate and humans. Understanding the reasons for this increase is important for the beneficial use of ammonia. The evolution of satellite products gives us the opportunity to calculate ammonia emissions easier. We calculated global ammonia emissions over the last 10 years, incorporated them into a chemistry model and recorded notable improvement in reproducing observations.
Longlei Li, Natalie M. Mahowald, Ron L. Miller, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Martina Klose, Douglas S. Hamilton, Maria Gonçalves Ageitos, Paul Ginoux, Yves Balkanski, Robert O. Green, Olga Kalashnikova, Jasper F. Kok, Vincenzo Obiso, David Paynter, and David R. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3973–4005, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3973-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3973-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, this study quantifies the range of the dust direct radiative effect due to uncertainty in the soil mineral abundance using all currently available information. We show that the majority of the estimated direct radiative effect range is due to uncertainty in the simulated mass fractions of iron oxides and thus their soil abundance, which is independent of the model employed. We therefore prove the necessity of considering mineralogy for understanding dust–climate interactions.
Jonas Gliß, Augustin Mortier, Michael Schulz, Elisabeth Andrews, Yves Balkanski, Susanne E. Bauer, Anna M. K. Benedictow, Huisheng Bian, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Mian Chin, Paul Ginoux, Jan J. Griesfeller, Andreas Heckel, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Paolo Laj, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Gunnar Myhre, David Neubauer, Twan van Noije, Peter North, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Rémy, Larisa Sogacheva, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Svetlana G. Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 87–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-87-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-87-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Simulated aerosol optical properties as well as the aerosol life cycle are investigated for 14 global models participating in the AeroCom initiative. Considerable diversity is found in the simulated aerosol species emissions and lifetimes, also resulting in a large diversity in the simulated aerosol mass, composition, and optical properties. A comparison with observations suggests that, on average, current models underestimate the direct effect of aerosol on the atmosphere radiation budget.
Isobel M. Parry, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Olivier Boucher, Peter M. Cox, James M. Haywood, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4889, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) aims to counteract global warming by injecting aerosols into the stratosphere, thereby increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. Despite concerns that SAI could reduce vegetation productivity by reducing the amount of sunlight at the Earth's surface and shifting rainfall patterns, SAI simulations project an increase in land carbon storage globally and in the Amazon compared to a moderate warming scenario, primarily due to increased CO2 fertilisation.
John P. Dunne, Helene T. Hewitt, Julie M. Arblaster, Frédéric Bonou, Olivier Boucher, Tereza Cavazos, Beth Dingley, Paul J. Durack, Birgit Hassler, Martin Juckes, Tomoki Miyakawa, Matt Mizielinski, Vaishali Naik, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Robert Pincus, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Isla R. Simpson, and Karl E. Taylor
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 6671–6700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6671-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6671-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The seventh phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) coordinates efforts to answer key and timely climate science questions and facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations for prediction and projection; characterization, attribution, and process understanding; and vulnerability, impact, and adaptation analysis. Key to the CMIP7 design are the mandatory Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima and optional Assessment Fast Track experiments.
Siqing Xu, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Yves Balkanski, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Liang Wan, and Jean Sciare
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3382, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Prescribing a fixed maximum grass density in the ORCHIDEE model limits its ability to capture grassland dynamics, leading to unrealistic mortality, especially in semi-arid grasslands. We proposed a dynamic density approach where a positive density-precipitation relationship emerges. This method significantly reduces mortality, sustains productivity, and raises the aridity threshold above which frequent mortality events occur in grasslands.
Sauvik Santra, Shubha Verma, Shubham Patel, Olivier Boucher, and Mathew Koll Roxy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2302, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Uneven spatial changes in Indian monsoon rainfall are linked to tiny airborne particles called aerosols, both human-made and natural (like dust). Using a high-resolution climate model, we show how persistent weakening and strengthening patterns in rainfall are driven by spatially varying aerosols. Reducing human-made aerosols may ease rainfall shortages in some areas but worsen excesses in others. These insights are key for better water management and policy planning.
Nikolaos Evangeliou, Ondřej Tichý, Marit Svendby Otervik, Sabine Eckhardt, Yves Balkanski, and Didier A. Hauglustaine
Aerosol Research, 3, 155–174, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-3-155-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-3-155-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The COVID-19 lockdown measures in 2020 reduced emissions of various substances, improving air quality. However, PM2.5 stayed unchanged due to NH3 and related chemical transformations. Higher humidity favoured more SO42- production, as did the accumulated NH3. Excess NH3 reacted with HNO3 to make NO3-. In high-NH3 conditions such as those in 2020, a small reduction in NOx levels drove faster oxidation of NO3- and slower deposition of total inorganic NO3-, causing high secondary PM2.5.
Irina Melnikova, Philippe Ciais, Katsumasa Tanaka, Hideo Shiogama, Kaoru Tachiiri, Tokuta Yokohata, and Olivier Boucher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 257–273, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-257-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-257-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gases is important alongside CO2 for climate mitigation. Here, we look at how reducing their emissions compares to reducing CO2 using an Earth system model. While both types of gases contribute to warming, their regional climate impacts differ. Besides, the carbon cycle responds differently depending on whether climate change is driven by CO2 or non-CO2 gases. Considering both types of gases is important for carbon cycle analysis and climate mitigation strategies.
Kevin Wolf, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Susanne Rohs, and Yun Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 157–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-157-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-157-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis and airborne in situ observations from IAGOS are compared in terms of the representation of the contrail formation potential and the presence of supersaturation. Differences are traced back to biases in ERA5 relative humidity fields. Those biases are addressed by applying a quantile mapping technique that significantly improved contrail estimation based on post-processed ERA5 data.
Audran Borella, Olivier Boucher, Keith P. Shine, Marc Stettler, Katsumasa Tanaka, Roger Teoh, and Nicolas Bellouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9401–9417, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work studies how to compare the climate impact of the CO2 emitted and contrails formed by a flight. This is applied to contrail avoidance strategies that would decrease climate impact of flights by changing the trajectory of aircraft to avoid persistent contrail formation, at the risk of increasing CO2 emissions. We find that different comparison methods lead to different quantification of the total climate impact of a flight but lead to similar decisions of whether to reroute an aircraft.
Rémy Bonnet, Christine M. McKenna, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 913–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-913-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models underestimate multidecadal winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability. Understanding the origin of this weak variability is important for making reliable climate projections. We use multi-model climate simulations to explore statistical relationships with drivers that may contribute to NAO variability. We find a relationship between modelled stratosphere–troposphere coupling and multidecadal NAO variability, offering an avenue to improve the simulation of NAO variability.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Sidiki Sanogo, Olivier Boucher, Nicolas Bellouin, Audran Borella, Kevin Wolf, and Susanne Rohs
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5495–5511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Relative humidity relative to ice (RHi) is a key variable in the formation of cirrus clouds and contrails. This study shows that the properties of the probability density function of RHi differ between the tropics and higher latitudes. In line with RHi and temperature variability, aircraft are likely to produce more contrails with bioethanol and liquid hydrogen as fuel. The impact of this fuel change decreases with decreasing pressure levels but increases from high latitudes to the tropics.
Kevin Wolf, Nicolas Bellouin, and Olivier Boucher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5009–5024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5009-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5009-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The contrail formation potential and its tempo-spatial distribution are estimated for the North Atlantic flight corridor. Meteorological conditions of temperature and relative humidity are taken from the ERA5 re-analysis and IAGOS. Based on IAGOS flight tracks, crossing length, size, orientation, frequency of occurrence, and overlap of persistent contrail formation areas are determined. The presented conclusions might provide a guide for statistical flight track optimization to reduce contrails.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Ondřej Tichý, Sabine Eckhardt, Yves Balkanski, Didier Hauglustaine, and Nikolaos Evangeliou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15235–15252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We show declining trends in NH3 emissions over Europe for 2013–2020 using advanced dispersion and inverse modelling and satellite measurements from CrIS. Emissions decreased by −26% since 2013, showing that the abatement strategies adopted by the European Union have been very efficient. Ammonia emissions are low in winter and peak in summer due to temperature-dependent soil volatilization. The largest decreases were observed in central and western Europe in countries with high emissions.
Kevin Wolf, Nicolas Bellouin, and Olivier Boucher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14003–14037, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14003-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14003-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cirrus and contrails considerably impact Earth's energy budget. Such ice clouds can have a positive (warming) or negative (cooling) net radiative effect (RE), which depends on cloud and ambient properties. The effect of eight parameters on the cloud RE is estimated. In total, 283 500 radiative transfer simulations have been performed, spanning the typical parameter ranges associated with cirrus and contrails. Specific cases are selected and discussed. The data set is publicly available.
María Gonçalves Ageitos, Vincenzo Obiso, Ron L. Miller, Oriol Jorba, Martina Klose, Matt Dawson, Yves Balkanski, Jan Perlwitz, Sara Basart, Enza Di Tomaso, Jerónimo Escribano, Francesca Macchia, Gilbert Montané, Natalie M. Mahowald, Robert O. Green, David R. Thompson, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8623–8657, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8623-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Dust aerosols affect our climate differently depending on their mineral composition. We include dust mineralogy in an atmospheric model considering two existing soil maps, which still have large associated uncertainties. The soil data and the distribution of the minerals in different aerosol sizes are key to our model performance. We find significant regional variations in climate-relevant variables, which supports including mineralogy in our current models and the need for improved soil maps.
Jan Polcher, Anthony Schrapffer, Eliott Dupont, Lucia Rinchiuso, Xudong Zhou, Olivier Boucher, Emmanuel Mouche, Catherine Ottlé, and Jérôme Servonnat
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2583–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2583-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2583-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The proposed graphs of hydrological sub-grid elements for atmospheric models allow us to integrate the topographical elements needed in land surface models for a realistic representation of horizontal water and energy transport. The study demonstrates the numerical properties of the automatically built graphs and the simulated water flows.
Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, Simone Tilmes, Jim Haywood, Olivier Boucher, Mark Lawrence, Peter Irvine, Ulrike Niemeier, Lili Xia, Gabriel Chiodo, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, John C. Moore, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5149–5176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Geoengineering indicates methods aiming to reduce the temperature of the planet by means of reflecting back a part of the incoming radiation before it reaches the surface or allowing more of the planetary radiation to escape into space. It aims to produce modelling experiments that are easy to reproduce and compare with different climate models, in order to understand the potential impacts of these techniques. Here we assess its past successes and failures and talk about its future.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Yann Quilcaille, Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, and Olivier Boucher
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1129–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1129-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1129-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The model OSCAR is a simple climate model, meaning its representation of the Earth system is simplified but calibrated on models of higher complexity. Here, we diagnose its latest version using a total of 99 experiments in a probabilistic framework and under observational constraints. OSCAR v3.1 shows good agreement with observations, complex Earth system models and emerging properties. Some points for improvements are identified, such as the ocean carbon cycle.
Yangxin Chen, Duoying Ji, Qian Zhang, John C. Moore, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 55–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-55-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-55-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a way of counteracting the warming effects of increasing greenhouse gases by reflecting solar radiation. This work shows that solar geoengineering can slow down the northern-high-latitude permafrost degradation but cannot preserve the permafrost ecosystem as that under a climate of the same warming level without solar geoengineering.
Manuel Schlund, Birgit Hassler, Axel Lauer, Bouwe Andela, Patrick Jöckel, Rémi Kazeroni, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Brian Medeiros, Valeriu Predoi, Stéphane Sénési, Jérôme Servonnat, Tobias Stacke, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Klaus Zimmermann, and Veronika Eyring
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 315–333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-315-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-315-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models. Originally, ESMValTool was designed to process reformatted output provided by large model intercomparison projects like the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Here, we describe a new extension of ESMValTool that allows for reading and processing native climate model output, i.e., data that have not been reformatted before.
Kevin Wolf, Nicolas Bellouin, and Olivier Boucher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 287–309, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies estimate the radiative impact of contrails to be similar to or larger than that of emitted CO2; thus, contrail mitigation might be an opportunity to reduce the climate effects of aviation. A radiosonde data set is analyzed in terms of the vertical distribution of potential contrails, contrail mitigation by flight altitude changes, and linkages with the tropopause and jet stream. The effect of prospective jet engine developments and alternative fuels are estimated.
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest of the US and Canada saw record temperatures far exceeding those previously observed. This attribution study found such a severe heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Assuming no nonlinear interactions, such events have become at least 150 times more common, are about 2 °C hotter and will become even more common as warming continues. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare society.
Johannes Quaas, Hailing Jia, Chris Smith, Anna Lea Albright, Wenche Aas, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Daniel Grosvenor, Stuart Jenkins, Zbigniew Klimont, Norman G. Loeb, Xiaoyan Ma, Vaishali Naik, Fabien Paulot, Philip Stier, Martin Wild, Gunnar Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12221–12239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Pollution particles cool climate and offset part of the global warming. However, they are washed out by rain and thus their effect responds quickly to changes in emissions. We show multiple datasets to demonstrate that aerosol emissions and their concentrations declined in many regions influenced by human emissions, as did the effects on clouds. Consequently, the cooling impact on the Earth energy budget became smaller. This change in trend implies a relative warming.
Sébastien Gardoll and Olivier Boucher
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7051–7073, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7051-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7051-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating natural disasters, which justifies monitoring and prediction in the context of a changing climate. In this study, we have adapted and tested a convolutional neural network (CNN) for the classification of reanalysis outputs (ERA5 and MERRA-2 labeled by HURDAT2) according to the presence or absence of TCs. We tested the impact of interpolation and of "mixing and matching" the training and test sets on the performance of the CNN.
Irina Melnikova, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Katsumasa Tanaka, Thomas Gasser, Tomohiro Hajima, Yann Quilcaille, Hideo Shiogama, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Nicolas Vuichard, Tokuta Yokohata, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 779–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The deployment of bioenergy crops for capturing carbon from the atmosphere facilitates global warming mitigation via generating negative CO2 emissions. Here, we explored the consequences of large-scale energy crops deployment on the land carbon cycle. The land-use change for energy crops leads to carbon emissions and loss of future potential increase in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems. This impact should be taken into account by the modeling teams and accounted for in mitigation policies.
Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Andy Jones, James Haywood, Roland Séférian, Pierre Nabat, Olivier Boucher, Ewa Monica Bednarz, and Ulrike Niemeier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4557–4579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the impacts of climate interventions, using stratospheric sulfate aerosol and solar dimming on stratospheric ozone, based on three Earth system models with interactive stratospheric chemistry. The climate interventions have been applied to a high emission (baseline) scenario in order to reach global surface temperatures of a medium emission scenario. We find significant increases and decreases in total column ozone, depending on regions and seasons.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase.
Adrian Chappell, Nicholas Webb, Mark Hennen, Charles Zender, Philippe Ciais, Kerstin Schepanski, Brandon Edwards, Nancy Ziegler, Sandra Jones, Yves Balkanski, Daniel Tong, John Leys, Stephan Heidenreich, Robert Hynes, David Fuchs, Zhenzhong Zeng, Marie Ekström, Matthew Baddock, Jeffrey Lee, and Tarek Kandakji
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-337, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-337, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Dust emissions influence global climate while simultaneously reducing the productive potential and resilience of landscapes to climate stressors, together impacting food security and human health. Our results indicate that tuning dust emission models to dust in the atmosphere has hidden dust emission modelling weaknesses and its poor performance. Our new approach will reduce uncertainty and driven by prognostic albedo improve Earth System Models of aerosol effects on future environmental change.
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Jonas Gliß, Susanne E. Bauer, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Paul Ginoux, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne T. Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Twan van Noije, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Remy, Michael Schulz, Philip Stier, Camilla W. Stjern, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15929–15947, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Absorption of shortwave radiation by aerosols can modify precipitation and clouds but is poorly constrained in models. A total of 15 different aerosol models from AeroCom phase III have reported total aerosol absorption, and for the first time, 11 of these models have reported in a consistent experiment the contributions to absorption from black carbon, dust, and organic aerosol. Here, we document the model diversity in aerosol absorption.
Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Yves Balkanski, Samuel Albani, Tommi Bergman, Ken Carslaw, Anne Cozic, Chris Dearden, Beatrice Marticorena, Martine Michou, Twan van Noije, Pierre Nabat, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Joseph M. Prospero, Philippe Le Sager, Michael Schulz, and Catherine Scott
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10295–10335, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Thousands of tons of dust are emitted into the atmosphere every year, producing important impacts on the Earth system. However, current global climate models are not yet able to reproduce dust emissions, transport and depositions with the desirable accuracy. Our study analyses five different Earth system models to report aspects to be improved to reproduce better available observations, increase the consistency between models and therefore decrease the current uncertainties.
Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michou Martine, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10039–10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A new set of simulations is used to investigate commonalities, differences and sources of uncertainty when simulating the injection of SO2 in the stratosphere in order to mitigate the effects of climate change (solar geoengineering). The models differ in how they simulate the aerosols and how they spread around the stratosphere, resulting in differences in projected regional impacts. Overall, however, the models agree that aerosols have the potential to mitigate the warming produced by GHGs.
Jasper F. Kok, Adeyemi A. Adebiyi, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Mian Chin, Peter R. Colarco, Douglas S. Hamilton, Yue Huang, Akinori Ito, Martina Klose, Danny M. Leung, Longlei Li, Natalie M. Mahowald, Ron L. Miller, Vincenzo Obiso, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Adriana Rocha-Lima, Jessica S. Wan, and Chloe A. Whicker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8127–8167, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8127-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8127-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust interacts with virtually every component of the Earth system, including the climate system. We develop a new methodology to represent the global dust cycle that integrates observational constraints on the properties and abundance of desert dust with global atmospheric model simulations. We show that the resulting representation of the global dust cycle is more accurate than what can be obtained from a large number of current climate global atmospheric models.
Jasper F. Kok, Adeyemi A. Adebiyi, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Mian Chin, Peter R. Colarco, Douglas S. Hamilton, Yue Huang, Akinori Ito, Martina Klose, Longlei Li, Natalie M. Mahowald, Ron L. Miller, Vincenzo Obiso, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Adriana Rocha-Lima, and Jessica S. Wan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8169–8193, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8169-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The many impacts of dust on the Earth system depend on dust mineralogy, which varies between dust source regions. We constrain the contribution of the world’s main dust source regions by integrating dust observations with global model simulations. We find that Asian dust contributes more and that North African dust contributes less than models account for. We obtain a dataset of each source region’s contribution to the dust cycle that can be used to constrain dust impacts on the Earth system.
Pascale Braconnot, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Anne Cozic, Masa Kageyama, Adriana Sima, Olivier Marti, and Jean-Yves Peterschmitt
Clim. Past, 17, 1091–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how mid-Holocene dust reduction affects the Earth’s energetics from a suite of climate simulations. Our analyses confirm the peculiar role of the dust radiative effect over bright surfaces such as African deserts. We highlight a strong dependence on the dust pattern. The relative dust forcing between West Africa and the Middle East impacts the relative response of Indian and African monsoons and between the western tropical Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional circulation.
Wei Min Hao, Matthew C. Reeves, L. Scott Baggett, Yves Balkanski, Philippe Ciais, Bryce L. Nordgren, Alexander Petkov, Rachel E. Corley, Florent Mouillot, Shawn P. Urbanski, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 18, 2559–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2559-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the trends in the spatial and temporal distribution of the area burned in northern Eurasia from 2002 to 2016. The annual area burned in this region declined by 53 % during the 15-year period under analysis. Grassland fires in Kazakhstan dominated the fire activity, comprising 47 % of the area burned but accounting for 84 % of the decline. A wetter climate and the increase in grazing livestock in Kazakhstan are the major factors contributing to the decline in the area burned.
Yuan Zhang, Olivier Boucher, Philippe Ciais, Laurent Li, and Nicolas Bellouin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2029–2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2029-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2029-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated different methods to reconstruct spatiotemporal distribution of the fraction of diffuse radiation (Fdf) to qualify the aerosol impacts on GPP using the ORCHIDEE_DF land surface model. We find that climatological-averaging methods which dampen the variability of Fdf can cause significant bias in the modeled diffuse radiation impacts on GPP. Better methods to reconstruct Fdf are recommended.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Nikolaos Evangeliou, Yves Balkanski, Sabine Eckhardt, Anne Cozic, Martin Van Damme, Pierre-François Coheur, Lieven Clarisse, Mark W. Shephard, Karen E. Cady-Pereira, and Didier Hauglustaine
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4431–4451, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4431-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4431-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ammonia, a substance that has played a key role in sustaining life, has been increasing in the atmosphere, affecting climate and humans. Understanding the reasons for this increase is important for the beneficial use of ammonia. The evolution of satellite products gives us the opportunity to calculate ammonia emissions easier. We calculated global ammonia emissions over the last 10 years, incorporated them into a chemistry model and recorded notable improvement in reproducing observations.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4231–4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates multi-model response to idealized geoengineering (high CO2 with solar reduction) across two different generations of climate models. We find that, with the exception of a few cases, the results are unchanged between the different generations. This gives us confidence that broad conclusions about the response to idealized geoengineering are robust.
Longlei Li, Natalie M. Mahowald, Ron L. Miller, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Martina Klose, Douglas S. Hamilton, Maria Gonçalves Ageitos, Paul Ginoux, Yves Balkanski, Robert O. Green, Olga Kalashnikova, Jasper F. Kok, Vincenzo Obiso, David Paynter, and David R. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3973–4005, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3973-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3973-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, this study quantifies the range of the dust direct radiative effect due to uncertainty in the soil mineral abundance using all currently available information. We show that the majority of the estimated direct radiative effect range is due to uncertainty in the simulated mass fractions of iron oxides and thus their soil abundance, which is independent of the model employed. We therefore prove the necessity of considering mineralogy for understanding dust–climate interactions.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Gillian Thornhill, William Collins, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alex Archibald, Susanne Bauer, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Stephanie Fiedler, Gerd Folberth, Ada Gjermundsen, Larry Horowitz, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Fabien Paulot, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Roland Séférian, Chris Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and James Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1105–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We find that increased temperatures affect aerosols and reactive gases by changing natural emissions and their rates of removal from the atmosphere. Changing the composition of these species in the atmosphere affects the radiative budget of the climate system and therefore amplifies or dampens the climate response of climate models of the Earth system. This study found that the largest effect is a dampening of climate change as warmer temperatures increase the emissions of cooling aerosols.
Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Piers M. Forster, Larry W. Horowitz, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Jane P. Mulcahy, Gunnar Myhre, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Christopher J. Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Tongwen Wu, Guang Zeng, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a study of how different constituents in the atmosphere, such as aerosols and gases like methane and ozone, affect the energy balance in the atmosphere. Different climate models were run using the same inputs to allow an easy comparison of the results and to understand where the models differ. We found the effect of aerosols is to reduce warming in the atmosphere, but this effect varies between models. Reactions between gases are also important in affecting climate.
Jonas Gliß, Augustin Mortier, Michael Schulz, Elisabeth Andrews, Yves Balkanski, Susanne E. Bauer, Anna M. K. Benedictow, Huisheng Bian, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Mian Chin, Paul Ginoux, Jan J. Griesfeller, Andreas Heckel, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Paolo Laj, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Gunnar Myhre, David Neubauer, Twan van Noije, Peter North, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Rémy, Larisa Sogacheva, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Svetlana G. Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 87–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-87-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-87-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Simulated aerosol optical properties as well as the aerosol life cycle are investigated for 14 global models participating in the AeroCom initiative. Considerable diversity is found in the simulated aerosol species emissions and lifetimes, also resulting in a large diversity in the simulated aerosol mass, composition, and optical properties. A comparison with observations suggests that, on average, current models underestimate the direct effect of aerosol on the atmosphere radiation budget.
Camilla W. Stjern, Bjørn H. Samset, Olivier Boucher, Trond Iversen, Jean-François Lamarque, Gunnar Myhre, Drew Shindell, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13467–13480, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13467-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13467-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The span between the warmest and coldest temperatures over a day is a climate parameter that influences both agriculture and human health. Using data from 10 models, we show how individual climate drivers such as greenhouse gases and aerosols produce distinctly different responses in this parameter in high-emission regions. Given the high uncertainty in future aerosol emissions, this improved understanding of the temperature responses may ultimately help these regions prepare for future changes.
Yuan Zhang, Ana Bastos, Fabienne Maignan, Daniel Goll, Olivier Boucher, Laurent Li, Alessandro Cescatti, Nicolas Vuichard, Xiuzhi Chen, Christof Ammann, M. Altaf Arain, T. Andrew Black, Bogdan Chojnicki, Tomomichi Kato, Ivan Mammarella, Leonardo Montagnani, Olivier Roupsard, Maria J. Sanz, Lukas Siebicke, Marek Urbaniak, Francesco Primo Vaccari, Georg Wohlfahrt, Will Woodgate, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5401–5423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We improved the ORCHIDEE LSM by distinguishing diffuse and direct light in canopy and evaluated the new model with observations from 159 sites. Compared with the old model, the new model has better sunny GPP and reproduced the diffuse light fertilization effect observed at flux sites. Our simulations also indicate different mechanisms causing the observed GPP enhancement under cloudy conditions at different times. The new model has the potential to study large-scale impacts of aerosol changes.
Cited articles
Atkinson, J. D., Murray, B. J., Woodhouse, M. T., Whale, T. F., Baustian, K.
J., Carslaw, K. S., Dobbie, S., O'Sullivan, D., and Malkin, T. L.: The
importance of feldspar for ice nucleation by mineral dust in mixed-phase
clouds, Nature, 498, 355–358, 2013.
Balkanski, Y., Schulz, M., Moulin, C., and Ginoux, P.: : The formulation of
dust emissions on global scale: formulation and validation using satellite
retrievals, in: Emissions of Atmospheric Trace Compounds, edited by: Granier, C.,
Artaxo, P., and Reeves, C., Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 239–267,
2004.
Balkanski, Y., Schulz, M., Claquin, T., and Guibert, S.: Reevaluation of
Mineral aerosol radiative forcings suggests a better agreement with
satellite and AERONET data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 81–95,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-81-2007, 2007.
Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y.,
Bastrikov, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P.,
Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Caubel, A., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A.,
Cugnet, D., D'Andrea, F., Davini, P., Lavergne, C., Denvil, S., Deshayes,
J., Devilliers, M., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J., Dupont, E., Éthé,
C., Fairhead, L., Falletti, L., Flavoni, S., Foujols, M., Gardoll, S.,
Gastineau, G., Ghattas, J., Grandpeix, J., Guenet, B., Guez, L., E.,
Guilyardi, E., Guimberteau, M., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A.,
Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Khodri, M., Krinner, G., Lebas, N.,
Levavasseur, G., Lévy, C., Li, L., Lott, F., Lurton, T., Luyssaert, S.,
Madec, G., Madeleine, J., Maignan, F., Marchand, M., Marti, O., Mellul, L.,
Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Ottlé, C., Peylin, P., Planton,
Y., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Rochetin, N., Rousset, C., Sepulchre, P., Sima,
A., Swingedouw, D., Thiéblemont, R., Traore, A. K., Vancoppenolle, M.,
Vial, J., Vialard, J., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Presentation and
Evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR Climate Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst.,
12, e2019MS002010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020.
Carslaw, K. S., Lee, L. A., Reddington, C. L., Pringle, K. J., Rap, A.,
Forster, P. M., Mann, G. W., Spracklen, D. V., Woodhouse, M. T., Regayre, L.
A., and Pierce, J. R.: Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty
in indirect forcing, Nature, 503, 67–71, 2013.
Checa-Garcia, R., Balkanski, Y., Albani, S., Bergman, T., Carslaw, K., Cozic, A., Dearden, C., Marticorena, B., Michou, M., van Noije, T., Nabat, P., O'Connor, F. M., Olivié, D., Prospero, J. M., Le Sager, P., Schulz, M., and Scott, C.: Evaluation of natural aerosols in CRESCENDO Earth system models (ESMs): mineral dust, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10295–10335, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, 2021.
Chylek, P., Srivastava, V., Pinnick, R. G., and Wang, T.: Scattering of
Electromagnetic waves by composites spherical particles: Experiment and
effective medium approximations, Appl. Opt., 27, 2396–2404, 1988.
Claquin, T., Schulz, M., and Balkanski, Y. J.: Modeling the mineralogy of
atmospheric dust sources, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104, 22243–22256,
https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900416, 1999.
Denjean, C., Cassola, F., and Mazzino, A., Triquet, S., Chevaillier, S.,
Grand, N., Bourrianne, T., Momboisse, G., Sellegri, K., Schwarzenbock, A.,
Freney, E., Mallet, M., and Formenti, P.: Size distribution and optical
properties of mineral dust aerosols transported in the western
Mediterranean, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1081–1104,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1081-2016, 2016.
Di Biagio, C., Formenti, P., Balkanski, Y., Caponi, L., Cazaunau, M., Pangui, E., Journet, E., Nowak, S., Andreae, M. O., Kandler, K., Saeed, T., Piketh, S., Seibert, D., Williams, E., and Doussin, J.-F.: Complex refractive indices and single-scattering albedo of global dust aerosols in the shortwave spectrum and relationship to size and iron content, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15503–15531, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15503-2019, 2019.
Di Biagio, C., Balkanski, Y., Albani, S., Boucher, O., and Formenti, P.:
Direct Radiative Effect by Mineral Dust Aerosols Constrained by New
Microphysical and Spectral Optical Data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086186,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086186, 2020.
Enfield, D. B., Mestas-Nuñez, A. M., and Trimble, P. J.: The Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the
continental U.S., Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2077–2080,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012745, 2001.
Engelbrecht, J. P., Moosmüller, H., Pincock, S., Jayanty, R. K. M., Lersch, T., and Casuccio, G.: Technical note: Mineralogical, chemical, morphological, and optical interrelationships of mineral dust re-suspensions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10809–10830, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10809-2016, 2016.
Fiedler, S., Crueger, T., D'Agostino, R., Peters, K., Becker, T., Leutwyler,
D., Paccini, L., Burdanowitz, J., Buehler, S. A., Cortes, A. U., Dauhut, T.,
Dommenget, D., Fraedrich, K., Jungandreas, L., Maher, N., Naumann, A. K.,
Rugenstein, M., Sakradzija, M., Schmidt, H., Sielmann, F., Stephan, C.,
Timmreck, C., Zhu, X., and Stevens, B.: Simulated Tropical Precipitation
Assessed across Three Major Phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project (CMIP), Mon. Weather Rev., 148, 3653–3680,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0404.1, 2020.
Formenti, P., Caquineau, S., Chevaillier, S., Klaver, A., Desboeufs, K.,
Rajot, J. L., Belin, S., and Briois, V.: Dominance of goethite over hematite
in iron oxides of mineral dust from Western Africa: Quantitative
partitioning by X-ray absorption spectroscopy, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
119, 12740–12754, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021668, 2014.
Fouquart, Y. and Bonnel, B.: Computations of solar heating
of the Earth's atmosphere: A new parameterization, Beitr. Phys. Atmos., 53, 35–62, 1980.
Haywood, J. M., Jones, A., Dunstone, N., Milton, S., Vellinga, M.,
Bodas-Salcedo, A., Hawcroft, M., Kravitz, B., Cole, J., Watanabe, S., and
Stephens, G.: The impact of equilibrating hemispheric albedos on tropical
performance in the HadGEM2-ES coupled climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
43, 395–403, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066903, 2016.
Hogan, R. J. and Bozzo, A.: A flexible and efficient radiation scheme for the ECMWF model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 10, 1990–2008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001364, 2018
Hwang, H. and Frierson, D.: Link between the double-intertropical
convergence zone problem and cloud biases over the southern ocean, P.
Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 4935–4940, 2013.
Joseph, J. H., Wiscombe, W. J., and Weinman, J. A.: The delta-Eddington
approximation for radiative flux transfer, J. Atmos. Sci., 33, 2452–2459,
1976.
Journet, E., Balkanski, Y., and Harrison, S. P.: A new data set of soil
mineralogy for dust-cycle modeling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3801–3816,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3801-2014, 2014.
Kandler, K., Benker, N., Bundke, U., Cuevas, E., Ebert, M., Knippertz, P.,
Rodríguez, S., Schütz, L., and Weinbruch, S.: Chemical composition
and complex refractive index of Saharan Mineral Dust at Izaña, Tenerife
(Spain) derived by electron microscopy, Atmos. Environ., 41, 8058–8074,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.06.047, 2007.
Kok, J. F.: Does the size distribution of mineral dust aerosols depend on
the wind speed at emission?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 10149–10156,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-10149-2011, 2011.
Kok, J. F., Ridley, D. A., Zhou, Q., Miller, R. L., Zhao, C., Heald, C. L.,
Ward, D. S., Albani, S., and Haustein, K.: Smaller desert dust cooling
effect estimated from analysis of dust size and abundance, Nat. Geosci., 10,
274–278, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2912, 2017.
Lafon, S., Sokolik, I. N., Dajot, J. L., Caquineau, S., and Gaudichet, A.:
Characterization of iron oxides in mineral dust aerosols: Implications for
light absorption, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D21207,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD007016, 2006.
Liu, D., Taylor, J. W., Crosier, J., Marsden, N., Bower, K. N., Lloyd, G.,
Ryder, C. L., Brooke, J. K., Cotton, R., Marenco, F., Blyth, A., Cui, Z.,
Estelles, V., Gallagher, M., Coe, H., and Choularton, T. W.: Aircraft and
ground measurements of dust aerosols over the west African coast in summer
2015 during ICE-D and AER-D, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3817–3838,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3817-2018, 2018.
Miller, R. L., Tegen, I., and Perlwitz, J.: Surface radiative forcing by
soil dust aerosols and the hydrologic cycle, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
109, 4085–4112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004085, 2004.
Miller, R. L., Knippertz, P., Pérez García-Pando, C., Perlwitz, J.
P., and Tegen, I.: Impact of Dust Radiative Forcing upon Climate, in:
Mineral Dust: A Key Player in the Earth System, edited by: Knippertz, P. and Stuut, J.-B. W., Springer
Netherlands, Dordrecht, 327–357,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8978-3_13, 2014.
Milton, S. F., Greed, G., Brooks, M. E., Haywood, J., Johnson, B., Allan, R.
P., Slingo, A., and Grey, W. M. F.: Modeled and observed atmospheric
radiation balance during the West African dry season: Role of mineral dust,
biomass burning aerosol, and surface albedo, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D00C02,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009741, 2008.
Moosmüller, H., Engelbrecht, J. P., Skiba, M., Frey, G.,
Chakrabarty, R. K., and Arnott, W. P.: Single scattering albedo of fine
mineral dust aerosols controlled by iron concentration, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D11210, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016909,
2012.
Morcrette, J.-J. and Fouquart, Y.: The overlapping of cloud layers in
shortwave radiation parameterizations, J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 321–328, 1986.
Nenes, A., Murray, B., and Bougiatioti, A.: Mineral Dust and its
Microphysical Interactions with Clouds, in: Mineral Dust, edited by:
Knippertz, P. and Stuut, J.-B. W., Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht,
287–325, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8978-3_12, 2014.
Nickovic, S., Vukovic, A., Vujadinovic, M., Djurdjevic, V., and Pejanovic,
G.: Technical Note: High-resolution mineralogical database of
dust-productive soils for atmospheric dust modeling, Atmos. Chem.
Phys., 12, 845–855, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-845-2012, 2012.
Pérez, C., Nickovic, S., Pejanovic, G., Baldasano, J. M., and Özsoy, E.: Interactive dust-radiation modeling: A step to improve weather forecasts, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D16206, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006717, 2006.
Perlwitz, J. P., Pérez García-Pando, C., and Miller, R. L.:
Predicting the mineral composition of dust aerosols – Part 1: Representing
key processes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11593–11627,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11593-2015, 2015.
Reid, J. S.: Comparison of size and morphological measurements of coarse
mode dust particles from Africa, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8593,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002485, 2003.
Ridley, D. A., Heald, C. L., Kok, J. F., and Zhao, C.: An observationally
constrained estimate of global dust aerosol optical depth, Atmos. Chem. Phys.,
16, 15097–15117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15097-2016, 2016.
Roehrig, R., Bouniol, D., Guichard, F., Hourdin, F., and Redelsperger,
J.-L.: The Present and Future of the West African Monsoon: A
Process-Oriented Assessment of CMIP5 Simulations along the AMMA Transect, J.
Clim., 26, 6471–6505, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00505.1, 2013.
Ryder, C. L., Highwood, E. J., Rosenberg, P. D., Trembath, J., Brooke, J. K., Bart, M., Dean, A., Crosier, J., Dorsey, J., Brindley, H., Banks, J., Marsham, J. H., McQuaid, J. B., Sodemann, H., and Washington, R.: Optical properties of Saharan dust aerosol and contribution from the coarse mode as measured during the Fennec 2011 aircraft campaign, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 303–325, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-303-2013, 2013.
Ryder, C. L., Marenco, F., Brooke, J. K., Estelles, V., Cotton, R.,
Formenti, P., McQuaid, J. B., Price, H. C., Liu, D., Ausset, P., Rosenberg,
P. D., Taylor, J. W., Choularton, T., Bower, K., Coe, H., Gallagher, M.,
Crosier, J., Lloyd, G., Highwood, E. J., and Murray, B. J.: Coarse-mode
mineral dust size distributions, composition and optical properties from
AER-D aircraft measurements over the tropical eastern Atlantic, Atmos.
Chem. Phys., 18, 17225–17257, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17225-2018,
2018.
Schulz, M., Balkanski, Y. J., Guelle, W., and Dulac, F.: Role of aerosol
size distribution and source location in a three dimensional simulation of a
Saharan dust episode tested against satellite-derived optical thicknes, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 103, 10579–10592, 1998.
Sheen, K. L., Smith, D. M., Dunstone, N. J., Eade, R., Rowell, D. P., and
Vellinga, M.: Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual
and multi-year timescales, Nat. Commun., 8, 14966,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14966, 2017.
Sokolik, I. N. and Toon, O. B.: Direct radiative forcing by anthropogenic
airborne mineral aerosols, Nature, 381, 681–683,
https://doi.org/10.1038/381681a0, 1996.
Solmon, F., Mallet, M., Elguindi, N., Giorgi, F., Zakey, A., and Konaré,
A.: Dust aerosol impact on regional precipitation over western Africa,
mechanisms and sensitivity to absorption properties, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
35, L24705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035900, 2008.
Stephens, G. L., Hakuba, M. Z., Hawcroft, M., Haywood, J. M., Behrangi, A.,
Kay, J. E., and Webster, P. J.: The Curious Nature of the Hemispheric
Symmetry of the Earth's Water and Energy Balances, Curr. Clim. Change Rep.,
2, 135–147, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0043-9, 2016.
Trenberth, K. E.: Atmospheric moisture recycling: Role of advection and
local evaporation, J. Clim., 12, 1368–13181,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1368:AMRROA, 1999.
Trenberth, K. E. and Shea, D. J.: Atlantic hurricanes and natural
variability in 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L12704,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026894, 2006.
Yoshioka, M., Mahowald, N. M., Conley, A. J., Collins, W. D., Fillmore, D.
W., Zender, C. S., and Coleman, D. B.: Impact of Desert Dust Radiative
Forcing on Sahel Precipitation: Relative Importance of Dust Compared to Sea
Surface Temperature Variations, Vegetation Changes, and Greenhouse Gas
Warming, J. Clim., 20, 1445–1467, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4056.1, 2007.
Yu, Y., Notaro, M., Wang, F., Mao, J., Shi, X., and Wei, Y.: Observed
positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks in the Sahel dominated by a moisture
recycling mechanism, Nat. Commun., 8, 1873,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02021-1, 2017.
Short summary
Earth system models have persistent biases that impinge on our ability to make robust future regional predictions of precipitation. For the last 15 years, there has been little improvement in these biases. This work presents an accurate representation of dust absorption based upon observed dust mineralogical composition and size distribution. The striking result is that this more accurate representation improves tropical precipitations for climate models with too weak an African monsoon.
Earth system models have persistent biases that impinge on our ability to make robust future...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint