Articles | Volume 20, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Jul 2020
Research article |
| 20 Jul 2020
| 20 Jul 2020
Adding value to extended-range forecasts in northern Europe by statistical post-processing using stratospheric observations
Weather and Climate Change Impact Research, Finnish Meteorological
Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Otto Hyvärinen
Weather and Climate Change Impact Research, Finnish Meteorological
Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Matti Kämäräinen
Weather and Climate Change Impact Research, Finnish Meteorological
Institute, Helsinki, Finland
David S. Richardson
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK
Heikki Järvinen
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Hilppa Gregow
Weather and Climate Change Impact Research, Finnish Meteorological
Institute, Helsinki, Finland
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Short summary
Reanalysis data of the strength of the polar vortex is applied in the post-processing of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) winter surface temperature forecasts for weeks 3–4 and 5–6 over northern Europe. In this way, the skill scores of these forecasts are slightly improved. It is also found that, in cases where the polar vortex was weak at the start of the forecast, the mean skill scores of these forecasts were higher than average.
Reanalysis data of the strength of the polar vortex is applied in the post-processing of the...
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