Articles | Volume 20, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020
Research article
 | 
20 Jul 2020
Research article |  | 20 Jul 2020

Adding value to extended-range forecasts in northern Europe by statistical post-processing using stratospheric observations

Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Matti Kämäräinen, David S. Richardson, Heikki Järvinen, and Hilppa Gregow

Related authors

The usefulness of Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts for Heat wave forecasts in Europe
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Winter Subseasonal Wind Speed Forecasts for Finland from ECMWF
Otto Hyvärinen, Terhi K. Laurila, Olle Räty, Natalia Korhonen, Andrea Vajda, and Hilppa Gregow
Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 127–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-127-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-127-2021, 2021
Short summary
Statistical downscaling of a climate simulation of the last glacial cycle: temperature and precipitation over Northern Europe
N. Korhonen, A. Venäläinen, H. Seppä, and H. Järvinen
Clim. Past, 10, 1489–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014, 2014
Temporal variations and change in forest fire danger in Europe for 1960–2012
A. Venäläinen, N. Korhonen, O. Hyvärinen, N. Koutsias, F. Xystrakis, I. R. Urbieta, and J. M. Moreno
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1477–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1477-2014,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1477-2014, 2014

Related subject area

Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Quasi-biennial oscillation modulation of stratospheric water vapour in the Asian monsoon
Cristina Peña-Ortiz, Nuria Pilar Plaza, David Gallego, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5457–5478, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5457-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Crucial role of obliquely propagating gravity waves in the quasi-biennial oscillation dynamics
Young-Ha Kim, Georg Sebastian Voelker, Gergely Bölöni, Günther Zängl, and Ulrich Achatz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3297–3308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3297-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3297-2024, 2024
Short summary
Technical note: Multi-year changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation from Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) methane
Ellis Remsberg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1691–1697, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1691-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1691-2024, 2024
Short summary
Exploring the ENSO modulation of the QBO periods with GISS E2.2 models
Tiehan Zhou, Kevin J. DallaSanta, Clara Orbe, David H. Rind, Jeffrey A. Jonas, Larissa Nazarenko, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Gary Russell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 509–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-509-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-509-2024, 2024
Short summary
The impact of ENSO and NAO initial conditions and anomalies on the modeled response to Pinatubo-sized volcanic forcing
Helen Weierbach, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Kostas Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15491–15505, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15491-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15491-2023, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

ACDL: Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Annual Meteorological Statistics, available at: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html, last access: 11 July 2020. 
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere, J. Geophys. Res, 104, 30937–30946, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900445, 1999. 
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes, Science, 294, 581–584, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1063315, 2001. 
Buizza, R. and Leutbecher, M.: The forecast skill horizon, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 3366–3382, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2619, 2015. 
Butler, A. H., Seidel, D. J., Hardiman, S. C., Butchart, N., Birner, T., and Match, A.: Defining sudden stratospheric warmings, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1913–1928, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00173.1, 2015. 
Download
Short summary
Reanalysis data of the strength of the polar vortex is applied in the post-processing of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) winter surface temperature forecasts for weeks 3–4 and 5–6 over northern Europe. In this way, the skill scores of these forecasts are slightly improved. It is also found that, in cases where the polar vortex was weak at the start of the forecast, the mean skill scores of these forecasts were higher than average.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint