Articles | Volume 20, issue 14
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8441–8451, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8441–8451, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020
Research article
20 Jul 2020
Research article | 20 Jul 2020

Adding value to extended-range forecasts in northern Europe by statistical post-processing using stratospheric observations

Natalia Korhonen et al.

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Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
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Reanalysis data of the strength of the polar vortex is applied in the post-processing of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) winter surface temperature forecasts for weeks 3–4 and 5–6 over northern Europe. In this way, the skill scores of these forecasts are slightly improved. It is also found that, in cases where the polar vortex was weak at the start of the forecast, the mean skill scores of these forecasts were higher than average.
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