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ACP | Articles | Volume 20, issue 14
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8441–8451, 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8441–8451, 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 20 Jul 2020

Research article | 20 Jul 2020

Adding value to extended-range forecasts in northern Europe by statistical post-processing using stratospheric observations

Natalia Korhonen et al.

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Cited articles

ACDL: Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Annual Meteorological Statistics, available at:, last access: 11 July 2020. 
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere, J. Geophys. Res, 104, 30937–30946,, 1999. 
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes, Science, 294, 581–584,, 2001. 
Buizza, R. and Leutbecher, M.: The forecast skill horizon, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 3366–3382,, 2015. 
Butler, A. H., Seidel, D. J., Hardiman, S. C., Butchart, N., Birner, T., and Match, A.: Defining sudden stratospheric warmings, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1913–1928,, 2015. 
Publications Copernicus
Short summary
Reanalysis data of the strength of the polar vortex is applied in the post-processing of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) winter surface temperature forecasts for weeks 3–4 and 5–6 over northern Europe. In this way, the skill scores of these forecasts are slightly improved. It is also found that, in cases where the polar vortex was weak at the start of the forecast, the mean skill scores of these forecasts were higher than average.
Reanalysis data of the strength of the polar vortex is applied in the post-processing of the...
Final-revised paper