Articles | Volume 20, issue 14
Research article
20 Jul 2020
Research article |  | 20 Jul 2020

Adding value to extended-range forecasts in northern Europe by statistical post-processing using stratospheric observations

Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Matti Kämäräinen, David S. Richardson, Heikki Järvinen, and Hilppa Gregow

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Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
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Cited articles

ACDL: Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Annual Meteorological Statistics, available at:, last access: 11 July 2020. 
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere, J. Geophys. Res, 104, 30937–30946,, 1999. 
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes, Science, 294, 581–584,, 2001. 
Buizza, R. and Leutbecher, M.: The forecast skill horizon, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 3366–3382,, 2015. 
Butler, A. H., Seidel, D. J., Hardiman, S. C., Butchart, N., Birner, T., and Match, A.: Defining sudden stratospheric warmings, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1913–1928,, 2015. 
Short summary
Reanalysis data of the strength of the polar vortex is applied in the post-processing of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) winter surface temperature forecasts for weeks 3–4 and 5–6 over northern Europe. In this way, the skill scores of these forecasts are slightly improved. It is also found that, in cases where the polar vortex was weak at the start of the forecast, the mean skill scores of these forecasts were higher than average.
Final-revised paper