Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
ACP
Articles | Volume 20, issue 14
Articles | Volume 20, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 14
Research article
 | 
20 Jul 2020
Research article |  | 20 Jul 2020

Adding value to extended-range forecasts in northern Europe by statistical post-processing using stratospheric observations

Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Matti Kämäräinen, David S. Richardson, Heikki Järvinen, and Hilppa Gregow

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Short summary
Reanalysis data of the strength of the polar vortex is applied in the post-processing of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) winter surface temperature forecasts for weeks 3–4 and 5–6 over northern Europe. In this way, the skill scores of these forecasts are slightly improved. It is also found that, in cases where the polar vortex was weak at the start of the forecast, the mean skill scores of these forecasts were higher than average.
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