Adding value to extended-range forecasts in northern Europe by statistical post-processing using stratospheric observations

Korhonen, Natalia; Hyvärinen, Otto; Kämäräinen, Matti; Richardson, David S.; Järvinen, Heikki; Gregow, Hilppa

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020

Articles | Volume 20, issue 14

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 14

Research article

|

20 Jul 2020

Research article |

| 20 Jul 2020

Adding value to extended-range forecasts in northern Europe by statistical post-processing using stratospheric observations

Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Matti Kämäräinen, David S. Richardson, Heikki Järvinen, and Hilppa Gregow

Data sets

Climate Prediction Center of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction CPC https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration ACDL https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html

ERA-Interim reanalysis data MARS https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim-full-daily/levtype=sfc/

Files containing data in Figures 1-5 in the manuscript Korhonen N. et al. ``Adding value to Extended-range Forecasts in Northern Europe by Statistical Post-processing Using Stratospheric Observations'' N. Korhonen https://etsin.fairdata.ﬁ/dataset/34d0f8b3-a593-46aa-8fcf-358d72f6cac1

Short summary

Reanalysis data of the strength of the polar vortex is applied in the post-processing of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) winter surface temperature forecasts for weeks 3–4 and 5–6 over northern Europe. In this way, the skill scores of these forecasts are slightly improved. It is also found that, in cases where the polar vortex was weak at the start of the forecast, the mean skill scores of these forecasts were higher than average.