Articles | Volume 20, issue 14
Research article
20 Jul 2020
Research article |  | 20 Jul 2020

Adding value to extended-range forecasts in northern Europe by statistical post-processing using stratospheric observations

Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Matti Kämäräinen, David S. Richardson, Heikki Järvinen, and Hilppa Gregow

Data sets

Climate Prediction Center of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction CPC

Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration ACDL

ERA-Interim reanalysis data MARS

Files containing data in Figures 1-5 in the manuscript Korhonen N. et al. ``Adding value to Extended-range Forecasts in Northern Europe by Statistical Post-processing Using Stratospheric Observations'' N. Korhonen

Short summary
Reanalysis data of the strength of the polar vortex is applied in the post-processing of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) winter surface temperature forecasts for weeks 3–4 and 5–6 over northern Europe. In this way, the skill scores of these forecasts are slightly improved. It is also found that, in cases where the polar vortex was weak at the start of the forecast, the mean skill scores of these forecasts were higher than average.
Final-revised paper