Articles | Volume 20, issue 14
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8441–8451, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8441–8451, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020

Research article 20 Jul 2020

Research article | 20 Jul 2020

Adding value to extended-range forecasts in northern Europe by statistical post-processing using stratospheric observations

Natalia Korhonen et al.

Data sets

Climate Prediction Center of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction CPC https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration ACDL https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html

ERA-Interim reanalysis data MARS https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim-full-daily/levtype=sfc/

Files containing data in Figures 1-5 in the manuscript Korhonen N. et al. ``Adding value to Extended-range Forecasts in Northern Europe by Statistical Post-processing Using Stratospheric Observations'' N. Korhonen https://etsin.fairdata.fi/dataset/34d0f8b3-a593-46aa-8fcf-358d72f6cac1

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Short summary
Reanalysis data of the strength of the polar vortex is applied in the post-processing of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) winter surface temperature forecasts for weeks 3–4 and 5–6 over northern Europe. In this way, the skill scores of these forecasts are slightly improved. It is also found that, in cases where the polar vortex was weak at the start of the forecast, the mean skill scores of these forecasts were higher than average.
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