Articles | Volume 17, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13521-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13521-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Nov 2017
Research article |
| 15 Nov 2017
Bayesian inverse modeling of the atmospheric transport and emissions of a controlled tracer release from a nuclear power plant
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA
Matthew Simpson
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA
Philip Cameron-Smith
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA
Ronald L. Baskett
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA
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D. D. Lucas, C. Yver Kwok, P. Cameron-Smith, H. Graven, D. Bergmann, T. P. Guilderson, R. Weiss, and R. Keeling
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 4, 121–137, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-4-121-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-4-121-2015, 2015
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Multiobjective optimization is used to design Pareto optimal greenhouse gas (GHG) observing networks. A prototype GHG network is designed to optimize scientific performance and measurement costs. The Pareto frontier is convex, showing the trade-offs between performance and cost and the diminishing returns in trading one for the other. Other objectives and constraints that are important in the design of practical GHG monitoring networks can be incorporated into our method.
D. D. Lucas, R. Klein, J. Tannahill, D. Ivanova, S. Brandon, D. Domyancic, and Y. Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1157–1171, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1157-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1157-2013, 2013
C. E. Yver, H. D. Graven, D. D. Lucas, P. J. Cameron-Smith, R. F. Keeling, and R. F. Weiss
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1837–1852, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1837-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1837-2013, 2013
Jishi Zhang, Peter Bogenschutz, Qi Tang, Philip Cameron-smith, and Chengzhu Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1989, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1989, 2023
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We developed a regionally refined climate model that allows for resolved convection and performed a 20-year projection to the end of the century. The model has a resolution of 3 km in California which allows us to predict climate with unprecedented accuracy and a resolution of 100 km for the rest of the globe to achieve efficient, self-consistent simulations. The model produces superior results in reproducing climate patterns over California that typical modern climate models cannot resolve.
Dana L. McGuffin, Philip J. Cameron-Smith, Matthew A. Horsley, Brian J. Bauman, Wim De Vries, Denis Healy, Alex Pertica, Chris Shaffer, and Lance M. Simms
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2129–2144, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2129-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2129-2023, 2023
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Xue Zheng, Qing Li, Tian Zhou, Qi Tang, Luke P. Van Roekel, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Hailong Wang, and Philip Cameron-Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3941–3967, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3941-2022, 2022
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We document the model experiments for the future climate projection by E3SMv1.0. At the highest future emission scenario, E3SMv1.0 projects a strong surface warming with rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land runoff. Specifically, we detect a significant polar amplification and accelerated warming linked to the unmasking of the aerosol effects. The impact of greenhouse gas forcing is examined in different climate components.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
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Qi Tang, Michael J. Prather, Juno Hsu, Daniel J. Ruiz, Philip J. Cameron-Smith, Shaocheng Xie, and Jean-Christophe Golaz
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Juno Hsu, Michael J. Prather, Philip Cameron-Smith, Alex Veidenbaum, and Alex Nicolau
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2525–2545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2525-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2525-2017, 2017
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Using ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models for the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, we quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution in 2030, 2050 and 2100, relative to 2000 concentrations. We also estimate the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period.
J. L. Schnell, M. J. Prather, B. Josse, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, P. Cameron-Smith, D. Bergmann, G. Zeng, D. A. Plummer, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, D. T. Shindell, G. Faluvegi, and S. A. Strode
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We test global chemistry--climate models in their ability to simulate present-day surface ozone. Models are tested against observed hourly ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1°x1° grid cells. Using novel metrics, we find most models match the shape but not the amplitude of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles and match the pattern but not the magnitude of summer ozone enhancement. Most also match the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes
D. D. Lucas, C. Yver Kwok, P. Cameron-Smith, H. Graven, D. Bergmann, T. P. Guilderson, R. Weiss, and R. Keeling
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 4, 121–137, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-4-121-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-4-121-2015, 2015
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Multiobjective optimization is used to design Pareto optimal greenhouse gas (GHG) observing networks. A prototype GHG network is designed to optimize scientific performance and measurement costs. The Pareto frontier is convex, showing the trade-offs between performance and cost and the diminishing returns in trading one for the other. Other objectives and constraints that are important in the design of practical GHG monitoring networks can be incorporated into our method.
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9917–9937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9917-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9917-2013, 2013
J.-F. Lamarque, F. Dentener, J. McConnell, C.-U. Ro, M. Shaw, R. Vet, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, S. Dalsoren, R. Doherty, G. Faluvegi, S. J. Ghan, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, D. Plummer, D. T. Shindell, R. B. Skeie, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, G. Zeng, M. Curran, D. Dahl-Jensen, S. Das, D. Fritzsche, and M. Nolan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7997–8018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7997-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7997-2013, 2013
D. D. Lucas, R. Klein, J. Tannahill, D. Ivanova, S. Brandon, D. Domyancic, and Y. Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1157–1171, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1157-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1157-2013, 2013
C. E. Yver, H. D. Graven, D. D. Lucas, P. J. Cameron-Smith, R. F. Keeling, and R. F. Weiss
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1837–1852, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1837-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1837-2013, 2013
J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, B. Josse, P. J. Young, I. Cionni, V. Eyring, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. Dalsoren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, S. J. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, R. B. Skeie, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, and G. Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 179–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, 2013
D. A. Belikov, S. Maksyutov, M. Krol, A. Fraser, M. Rigby, H. Bian, A. Agusti-Panareda, D. Bergmann, P. Bousquet, P. Cameron-Smith, M. P. Chipperfield, A. Fortems-Cheiney, E. Gloor, K. Haynes, P. Hess, S. Houweling, S. R. Kawa, R. M. Law, Z. Loh, L. Meng, P. I. Palmer, P. K. Patra, R. G. Prinn, R. Saito, and C. Wilson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1093–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1093-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1093-2013, 2013
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Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
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Multidecadal ozone trends in China and implications for human health and crop yields: a hybrid approach combining a chemical transport model and machine learning
On the influence of vertical mixing, boundary layer schemes, and temporal emission profiles on tropospheric NO2 in WRF-Chem – comparisons to in situ, satellite, and MAX-DOAS observations
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Optimizing 4 years of CO2 biospheric fluxes from OCO-2 and in situ data in TM5: fire emissions from GFED and inferred from MOPITT CO data
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Estimated regional CO2 flux and uncertainty based on an ensemble of atmospheric CO2 inversions
Assessing the representativity of NH3 measurements influenced by boundary-layer dynamics and the turbulent dispersion of a nearby emission source
Analysis of CO2, CH4, and CO surface and column concentrations observed at Réunion Island by assessing WRF-Chem simulations
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Quantifying fossil fuel methane emissions using observations of atmospheric ethane and an uncertain emission ratio
The impact of peripheral circulation characteristics of typhoon on sustained ozone episodes over the Pearl River Delta region, China
Updated Global Fuel Exploitation Inventory (GFEI) for methane emissions from the oil, gas, and coal sectors: evaluation with inversions of atmospheric methane observations
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Michael Steiner, Wouter Peters, Ingrid Luijkx, Stephan Henne, Huilin Chen, Samuel Hammer, and Dominik Brunner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2759–2782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2759-2024, 2024
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The Paris Agreement increased interest in estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of individual countries, but top-down emission estimation is not yet considered policy-relevant. It is therefore paramount to reduce large errors and to build systems that are based on the newest atmospheric transport models. In this study, we present the first application of ICON-ART in the inverse modeling of GHG fluxes with an ensemble Kalman filter and present our results for European CH4 emissions.
Nan Wang, Hongyue Wang, Xin Huang, Xi Chen, Yu Zou, Tao Deng, Tingyuan Li, Xiaopu Lyu, and Fumo Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1559–1570, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1559-2024, 2024
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This study explores the influence of extreme-weather-induced natural processes on ozone pollution, which is often overlooked. By analyzing meteorological factors, natural emissions, chemistry pathways and atmospheric transport, we discovered that these natural processes could substantially exacerbate ozone pollution. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of ozone pollution and offer valuable insights for controlling ozone pollution in the context of global warming.
Jia Mao, Amos P. K. Tai, David H. Y. Yung, Tiangang Yuan, Kong T. Chau, and Zhaozhong Feng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 345–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-345-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-345-2024, 2024
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Surface ozone (O3) is well-known for posing great threats to both human health and agriculture worldwide. However, a multidecadal assessment of the impacts of O3 on public health and agriculture in China is lacking without sufficient O3 observations. We used a hybrid approach combining a chemical transport model and machine learning to provide a robust dataset of O3 concentrations over the past 4 decades in China, thereby filling the gap in the long-term O3 trend and impact assessment in China.
Leon Kuhn, Steffen Beirle, Vinod Kumar, Sergey Osipov, Andrea Pozzer, Tim Bösch, Rajesh Kumar, and Thomas Wagner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 185–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-185-2024, 2024
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NO₂ is an important air pollutant. It was observed that the WRF-Chem model shows significant deviations in NO₂ abundance when compared to measurements. We use a 1-month simulation over central Europe to show that these deviations can be mostly resolved by reparameterization of the vertical mixing routine. In order to validate our results, they are compared to in situ, satellite, and MAX-DOAS measurements.
Ondřej Tichý, Sabine Eckhardt, Yves Balkanski, Didier Hauglustaine, and Nikolaos Evangeliou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15235–15252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15235-2023, 2023
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We show declining trends in NH3 emissions over Europe for 2013–2020 using advanced dispersion and inverse modelling and satellite measurements from CrIS. Emissions decreased by −26% since 2013, showing that the abatement strategies adopted by the European Union have been very efficient. Ammonia emissions are low in winter and peak in summer due to temperature-dependent soil volatilization. The largest decreases were observed in central and western Europe in countries with high emissions.
Yusuf A. Bhatti, Laura E. Revell, Alex J. Schuddeboom, Adrian J. McDonald, Alex T. Archibald, Jonny Williams, Abhijith U. Venugopal, Catherine Hardacre, and Erik Behrens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15181–15196, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15181-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15181-2023, 2023
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Aerosols are a large source of uncertainty over the Southern Ocean. A dominant source of sulfate aerosol in this region is dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which is poorly simulated by climate models. We show the sensitivity of simulated atmospheric DMS to the choice of oceanic DMS data set and emission scheme. We show that oceanic DMS has twice the influence on atmospheric DMS than the emission scheme. Simulating DMS more accurately in climate models will help to constrain aerosol uncertainty.
Maryam Golbazi and Cristina Archer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15057–15075, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15057-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15057-2023, 2023
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We use scientific models to study the impact of ship emissions on air quality along the US East Coast. We find an increase in three major pollutants (PM2.5, NO2, and SO2) in coastal regions. However, we detect a reduction in ozone (O3) levels in major coastal cities. This reduction is linked to the significant emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from ships, which scavenged O3, especially in highly polluted urban areas experiencing an NOx-limited regime.
Xinxu Zhao, Jia Chen, Julia Marshall, Michal Gałkowski, Stephan Hachinger, Florian Dietrich, Ankit Shekhar, Johannes Gensheimer, Adrian Wenzel, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14325–14347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14325-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14325-2023, 2023
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We develop a modeling framework using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a high spatial resolution (up to 400 m) to simulate atmospheric transport of greenhouse gases and interpret column observations. Output is validated against weather stations and column measurements in August 2018. The differential column method is applied, aided by air-mass transport tracing with the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model, also for an exploratory measurement interpretation.
Ioannis Katharopoulos, Dominique Rust, Martin K. Vollmer, Dominik Brunner, Stefan Reimann, Simon J. O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Kieran M. Stanley, Tanja Schuck, Jgor Arduini, Lukas Emmenegger, and Stephan Henne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14159–14186, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14159-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14159-2023, 2023
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The effectiveness of climate change mitigation needs to be scrutinized by monitoring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Countries report their emissions to the UN in a bottom-up manner. By combining atmospheric observations and transport models someone can independently validate emission estimates in a top-down fashion. We report Swiss emissions of synthetic GHGs based on kilometer-scale transport and inverse modeling, highlighting the role of appropriate resolution in complex terrain.
Tianfeng Chai, Xinrong Ren, Fong Ngan, Mark Cohen, and Alice Crawford
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12907–12933, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12907-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12907-2023, 2023
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The SO2 emissions of three power plants are estimated using aircraft observations and an ensemble of HYSPLIT dispersion simulations with different plume rise parameters. The emission estimates using the runs with the lowest root mean square errors (RMSEs) and the runs with the best correlation coefficients between the predicted and observed mixing ratios both agree well with the Continuous Emissions Monitoring Systems (CEMS) data. The RMSE-based plume rise appears to be more reasonable.
Rostislav Kouznetsov, Risto Hänninen, Andreas Uppstu, Evgeny Kadantsev, Yalda Fatahi, Marje Prank, Dmitrii Kouznetsov, Steffen Manfred Noe, Heikki Junninen, and Mikhail Sofiev
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-732, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-732, 2023
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With only the publicly available media reports, we were able to infer the temporal evolution and the injection height for the Nord Stream gas leaks in September 2022. The inventory specifies locations, vertical distributions and temporal evolution of the methane sources. The inventory can be used to simulate the event with atmospheric transport models. The inventory is supplemented with a set of observational data tailored to evaluate the results of the simulated atmospheric dispersion.
Vishnu Thilakan, Dhanyalekshmi Pillai, Jithin Sukumaran, Christoph Gerbig, Haseeb Hakkim, Vinayak Sinha, Yukio Terao, Manish Naja, and Monish Vijay Deshpande
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1582, 2023
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This study investigates the usability of CO2 mixing ratio observations over India to infer the regional carbon sources and sinks. We demonstrate that a high-resolution modelling system can represent the observed CO2 variations reasonably well by improving the transport and flux variations at a fine scale. Future carbon data assimilation systems can thus be benefitted from these recently available CO2 observations when fine-scale variations are adequately represented in the models.
Jinghui Lian, Thomas Lauvaux, Hervé Utard, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Michel Ramonet, Olivier Laurent, Ivonne Albarus, Mali Chariot, Simone Kotthaus, Martial Haeffelin, Olivier Sanchez, Olivier Perrussel, Hugo Anne Denier van der Gon, Stijn Nicolaas Camiel Dellaert, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8823–8835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8823-2023, 2023
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This study quantifies urban CO2 emissions via an atmospheric inversion for the Paris metropolitan area over a 6-year period from 2016 to 2021. Results show a long-term decreasing trend of about 2 % ± 0.6 % per year in the annual CO2 emissions over Paris. We conclude that our current capacity can deliver near-real-time CO2 emission estimates at the city scale in under a month, and the results agree within 10 % with independent estimates from multiple city-scale inventories.
Fu-Jie Zhu, Peng-Tuan Hu, and Wan-Li Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8583–8590, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8583-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8583-2023, 2023
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A new steady-state gas–particle partitioning model of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons was established based on the level-III multimedia fugacity model, which proved that the particulate proportion of PAHs in emissions was a crucial factor for G–P partitioning of PAHs. In addition, gaseous and particulate interference was also derived in the new steady-state model determined by the particulate proportion in emission that could derivate the G–P partitioning quotients from the equilibrium state.
Christian Hogrefe, Jesse O. Bash, Jonathan E. Pleim, Donna B. Schwede, Robert C. Gilliam, Kristen M. Foley, K. Wyat Appel, and Rohit Mathur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8119–8147, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8119-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8119-2023, 2023
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Under the umbrella of the fourth phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4), this study applies AQMEII4 diagnostic tools to better characterize how dry deposition removes pollutants from the atmosphere in the widely used CMAQ model. The results illustrate how these tools can provide insights into similarities and differences between the two CMAQ dry deposition options that affect simulated pollutant budgets and ecosystem impacts from atmospheric pollution.
Kun Qu, Xuesong Wang, Xuhui Cai, Yu Yan, Xipeng Jin, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Maria Kanakidou, Guy P. Brasseur, Jin Shen, Teng Xiao, Limin Zeng, and Yuanhang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7653–7671, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7653-2023, 2023
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Basic understandings of ozone processes, especially transport and chemistry, are essential to support ozone pollution control, but studies often have different views on their relative importance. We developed a method to quantify their contributions in the ozone mass and concentration budgets based on the WRF-CMAQ model. Results in a polluted region highlight the differences between two budgets. For future studies, two budgets are both needed to fully understand the effects of ozone processes.
Emily Dowd, Chris Wilson, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Emanuel Gloor, Alistair Manning, and Ruth Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7363–7382, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7363-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7363-2023, 2023
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Surface observations of methane show that the seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) of methane is decreasing in the northern high latitudes (NHLs) but increased globally (1995–2020). The NHL decrease is counterintuitive, as we expect the SCA to increase with increasing concentrations. We use a chemical transport model to investigate changes in SCA in the NHLs. We find well-mixed methane and changes in emissions from Canada, the Middle East, and Europe are the largest contributors to the SCA in NHLs.
Fabian Manuel Maier, Christian Rödenbeck, Ingeborg Levin, Christoph Gerbig, Maksym Gachkivskyi, and Samuel Hammer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1239, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1239, 2023
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We investigate the usage of discrete radiocarbon (14C)-based fossil fuel carbon dioxide (ffCO2) concentration estimates versus continuous carbon monoxide (CO)-based ffCO2 estimates to evaluate the seasonal cycle of the ffCO2 emissions in an urban region with an inverse modelling framework. We find that the CO-based ffCO2 estimates allow to reconstruct robust seasonal cycles, which show the distinct Covid-19 drawdown in 2020 and can be used to validate emission inventories.
Danyang Ma, Tijian Wang, Hao Wu, Yawei Qu, Jian Liu, Jane Liu, Shu Li, Bingliang Zhuang, Mengmeng Li, and Min Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6525–6544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6525-2023, 2023
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Increasing surface ozone (O3) concentrations have long been a significant environmental issue in China, despite the Clean Air Action Plan launched in 2013. Most previous research ignores the contributions of CO2 variations. Our study comprehensively analyzed O3 variation across China from various perspectives and highlighted the importance of considering CO2 variations when designing long-term O3 control policies, especially in high-vegetation-coverage areas.
Jackson Hian-Wui Chang, Stephen M. Griffith, Steven Soon-Kai Kong, Ming-Tung Chuang, and Neng-Huei Lin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6357–6382, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6357-2023, 2023
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A novel CMAQ–PMF-based composite index is developed to identify the key VOC source species for an effective ozone abatement strategy. The index provides information as to which VOC species are key to ozone formation and where to reduce sources of these VOC species. Using the composite index, we recommended the VOC control measures in southern Taiwan should prioritize solvent usage, vehicle emissions, and the petrochemical industry.
Lei Duan and Ken Caldeira
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6011–6020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6011-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6011-2023, 2023
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Ocko and Hamburg (2022) emphasize the short-term climate impact of hydrogen, and we present an analysis that places greater focus on long-term outcomes. We have derived equations that describe the time-evolving impact of hydrogen and show that higher methane leakage is primarily responsible for the warming potential of blue hydrogen, while hydrogen leakage plays a less critical role. Fossil fuels show more prominent longer-term climate impacts than clean hydrogen under all emission scenarios.
Lixu Jin, Wade Permar, Vanessa Selimovic, Damien Ketcherside, Robert J. Yokelson, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, Eric C. Apel, I-Ting Ku, Jeffrey L. Collett Jr., Amy P. Sullivan, Daniel A. Jaffe, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Alan Fried, Matthew M. Coggon, Georgios I. Gkatzelis, Carsten Warneke, Emily V. Fischer, and Lu Hu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5969–5991, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5969-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5969-2023, 2023
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Air quality in the USA has been improving since 1970 due to anthropogenic emission reduction. Those gains have been partly offset by increased wildfire pollution in the western USA in the past 20 years. Still, we do not understand wildfire emissions well due to limited measurements. Here, we used a global transport model to evaluate and constrain current knowledge of wildfire emissions with recent observational constraints, showing the underestimation of wildfire emissions in the western USA.
Zichong Chen, Daniel J. Jacob, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Robert N. Stavins, Robert C. Stowe, Hannah Nesser, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Alba Lorente, Daniel J. Varon, Xiao Lu, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Drew C. Pendergrass, and Sarah Hancock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5945–5967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5945-2023, 2023
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We quantify methane emissions from individual countries in the Middle East and North Africa by inverse analysis of 2019 TROPOMI satellite observations of atmospheric methane. We show that the ability to simply relate oil/gas emissions to activity metrics is compromised by stochastic nature of local infrastructure and management practices. We find that the industry target for oil/gas methane intensity is achievable through associated gas capture, modern infrastructure, and centralized operations.
Yuting Wang, Yong-Feng Ma, Domingo Muñoz-Esparza, Jianing Dai, Cathy Wing Yi Li, Pablo Lichtig, Roy Chun-Wang Tsang, Chun-Ho Liu, Tao Wang, and Guy Pierre Brasseur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5905–5927, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5905-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5905-2023, 2023
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Air quality in urban areas is difficult to simulate in coarse-resolution models. This work exploits the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model coupled with a large-eddy simulation (LES) component and online chemistry to perform high-resolution (33.3 m) simulations of air quality in a large city. The evaluation of the simulations with observations shows that increased model resolution improves the representation of the chemical species near the pollution sources.
Shuqi Yan, Bin Zhu, Shuangshuang Shi, Wen Lu, Jinhui Gao, Hanqing Kang, and Duanyang Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5177–5190, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5177-2023, 2023
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We analyze ozone response to aerosol mixing states in the vertical direction by WRF-Chem simulations. Aerosols generally lead to turbulent suppression, precursor accumulation, low-level photolysis reduction, and upper-level photolysis enhancement under different underlying surface and pollution conditions. Thus, ozone decreases within the entire boundary layer during the daytime, and the decrease is the least in aerosol external mixing states compared to internal and core shell mixing states.
Ida Storm, Ute Karstens, Claudio D'Onofrio, Alex Vermeulen, and Wouter Peters
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4993–5008, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4993-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4993-2023, 2023
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In this study, we evaluate what is in the influence regions of the ICOS atmospheric measurement stations to gain insight into what land cover types and land-cover-associated fluxes the network represents. Subsequently, insights about strengths, weaknesses, and potential gaps can assist in future network expansion decisions. The network is concentrated in central Europe, which leads to a general overrepresentation of coniferous forest and cropland and underrepresentation of grass and shrubland.
Anna Agustí-Panareda, Jérôme Barré, Sébastien Massart, Antje Inness, Ilse Aben, Melanie Ades, Bianca C. Baier, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Tobias Borsdorff, Nicolas Bousserez, Souhail Boussetta, Michael Buchwitz, Luca Cantarello, Cyril Crevoisier, Richard Engelen, Henk Eskes, Johannes Flemming, Sébastien Garrigues, Otto Hasekamp, Vincent Huijnen, Luke Jones, Zak Kipling, Bavo Langerock, Joe McNorton, Nicolas Meilhac, Stefan Noël, Mark Parrington, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Michel Ramonet, Miha Razinger, Maximilian Reuter, Roberto Ribas, Martin Suttie, Colm Sweeney, Jérôme Tarniewicz, and Lianghai Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3829–3859, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3829-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3829-2023, 2023
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We present a global dataset of atmospheric CO2 and CH4, the two most important human-made greenhouse gases, which covers almost 2 decades (2003–2020). It is produced by combining satellite data of CO2 and CH4 with a weather and air composition prediction model, and it has been carefully evaluated against independent observations to ensure validity and point out deficiencies to the user. This dataset can be used for scientific studies in the field of climate change and the global carbon cycle.
Dominik Brunner, Gerrit Kuhlmann, Stephan Henne, Erik Koene, Bastian Kern, Sebastian Wolff, Christiane Voigt, Patrick Jöckel, Christoph Kiemle, Anke Roiger, Alina Fiehn, Sven Krautwurst, Konstantin Gerilowski, Heinrich Bovensmann, Jakob Borchardt, Michal Galkowski, Christoph Gerbig, Julia Marshall, Andrzej Klonecki, Pascal Prunet, Robert Hanfland, Margit Pattantyús-Ábrahám, Andrzej Wyszogrodzki, and Andreas Fix
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2699–2728, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2699-2023, 2023
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We evaluated six atmospheric transport models for their capability to simulate the CO2 plumes from two of the largest power plants in Europe by comparing the models against aircraft observations collected during the CoMet (Carbon Dioxide and Methane Mission) campaign in 2018. The study analyzed how realistically such plumes can be simulated at different model resolutions and how well the planned European satellite mission CO2M will be able to quantify emissions from power plants.
Chenchao Zhan, Min Xie, Hua Lu, Bojun Liu, Zheng Wu, Tijian Wang, Bingliang Zhuang, Mengmeng Li, and Shu Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 771–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-771-2023, 2023
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With the development of urbanization, urban land use and anthropogenic
emissions increase, affecting urban air quality and, in turn, the health risks associated with air pollutants. In this study, we systematically evaluate the impacts of urbanization on air quality and the corresponding health risks in a highly urbanized city with severe air pollution and complex terrain. This work focuses on the health risks caused by urbanization and can provide valuable insight for air pollution strategies.
Hélène Peiro, Sean Crowell, and Berrien Moore III
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15817–15849, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15817-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15817-2022, 2022
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CO data can provide a powerful constraint on fire fluxes, supporting more accurate estimation of biospheric CO2 fluxes. We converted CO fire flux into CO2 fire prior, which is then used to adjust CO2 respiration. We applied this to two other fire flux products. CO2 inversions constrained by satellites or in situ data are then performed. Results show larger variations among the data assimilated than across the priors, but tropical flux from in situ inversions is sensitive to priors.
Zhaofeng Lv, Zhenyu Luo, Fanyuan Deng, Xiaotong Wang, Junchao Zhao, Lucheng Xu, Tingkun He, Yingzhi Zhang, Huan Liu, and Kebin He
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15685–15702, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15685-2022, 2022
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This study developed a hybrid model, CMAQ-RLINE_URBAN, to predict the urban NO2 concentrations at a high spatial resolution. To estimate the influence of various street canyons on the dispersion of air pollutants, a new parameterization scheme was established based on computational fluid dynamics and machine learning methods. This work created a new method to identify the characteristics of vehicle-related air pollution at both city and street scales simultaneously and accurately.
Vishnu Thilakan, Dhanyalekshmi Pillai, Christoph Gerbig, Michal Galkowski, Aparnna Ravi, and Thara Anna Mathew
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15287–15312, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15287-2022, 2022
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This paper demonstrates how we can use atmospheric observations to improve the CO2 flux estimates in India. This is achieved by improving the representation of terrain, mesoscale transport, and flux variations. We quantify the impact of the unresolved variations in the current models on optimally estimated fluxes via inverse modelling and quantify the associated flux uncertainty. We illustrate how a parameterization scheme captures this variability in the coarse models.
Zichong Chen, Daniel J. Jacob, Hannah Nesser, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Alba Lorente, Daniel J. Varon, Xiao Lu, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Elise Penn, and Xueying Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10809–10826, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10809-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10809-2022, 2022
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We quantify methane emissions in China and contributions from different sectors by inverse analysis of 2019 TROPOMI satellite observations of atmospheric methane. We find that anthropogenic methane emissions for China are underestimated in the national inventory. Our estimate of emissions indicates a small life-cycle loss rate, implying net climate benefits from the current
coal-to-gasenergy transition in China. However, this small loss rate can be misleading given China's high gas imports.
Naveen Chandra, Prabir K. Patra, Yousuke Niwa, Akihiko Ito, Yosuke Iida, Daisuke Goto, Shinji Morimoto, Masayuki Kondo, Masayuki Takigawa, Tomohiro Hajima, and Michio Watanabe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9215–9243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9215-2022, 2022
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This paper is intended to accomplish two goals: (1) quantify mean and uncertainty in non-fossil-fuel CO2 fluxes estimated by inverse modeling and (2) provide in-depth analyses of regional CO2 fluxes in support of emission mitigation policymaking. CO2 flux variability and trends are discussed concerning natural climate variability and human disturbances using multiple lines of evidence.
Ruben B. Schulte, Margreet C. van Zanten, Bart J. H. van Stratum, and Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8241–8257, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8241-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8241-2022, 2022
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We present a fine-scale simulation framework, utilizing large-eddy simulations, to assess NH3 measurements influenced by boundary-layer dynamics and turbulent dispersion of a nearby emission source. The minimum required distance from an emission source differs for concentration and flux measurements, from 0.5–3.0 km and 0.75–4.5 km, respectively. The simulation framework presented here proves to be a powerful and versatile tool for future NH3 research at high spatio-temporal resolutions.
Sieglinde Callewaert, Jérôme Brioude, Bavo Langerock, Valentin Duflot, Dominique Fonteyn, Jean-François Müller, Jean-Marc Metzger, Christian Hermans, Nicolas Kumps, Michel Ramonet, Morgan Lopez, Emmanuel Mahieu, and Martine De Mazière
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7763–7792, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7763-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7763-2022, 2022
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A regional atmospheric transport model is used to analyze the factors contributing to CO2, CH4, and CO observations at Réunion Island. We show that the surface observations are dominated by local fluxes and dynamical processes, while the column data are influenced by larger-scale mechanisms such as biomass burning plumes. The model is able to capture the measured time series well; however, the results are highly dependent on accurate boundary conditions and high-resolution emission inventories.
Anja Ražnjević, Chiel van Heerwaarden, Bart van Stratum, Arjan Hensen, Ilona Velzeboer, Pim van den Bulk, and Maarten Krol
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6489–6505, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6489-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6489-2022, 2022
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Mobile measurement techniques (e.g., instruments placed in cars) are often employed to identify and quantify individual sources of greenhouse gases. Due to road restrictions, those observations are often sparse (temporally and spatially). We performed high-resolution simulations of plume dispersion, with realistic weather conditions encountered in the field, to reproduce the measurement process of a methane plume emitted from an oil well and provide additional information about the plume.
Alice E. Ramsden, Anita L. Ganesan, Luke M. Western, Matthew Rigby, Alistair J. Manning, Amy Foulds, James L. France, Patrick Barker, Peter Levy, Daniel Say, Adam Wisher, Tim Arnold, Chris Rennick, Kieran M. Stanley, Dickon Young, and Simon O'Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3911–3929, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3911-2022, 2022
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Quantifying methane emissions from different sources is a key focus of current research. We present a method for estimating sectoral methane emissions that uses ethane as a tracer for fossil fuel methane. By incorporating variable ethane : methane emission ratios into this model, we produce emissions estimates with improved uncertainty characterisation. This method will be particularly useful for studying methane emissions in areas with complex distributions of sources.
Ying Li, Xiangjun Zhao, Xuejiao Deng, and Jinhui Gao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3861–3873, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3861-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3861-2022, 2022
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This study finds a new phenomenon of weak wind deepening (WWD) associated with the peripheral circulation of typhoon and gives the influence mechanism of WWD on its contribution to daily variation during sustained ozone episodes. The WWD provides the premise for pollution accumulation in the whole PBL and continued enhancement of ground-level ozone via vertical mixing processes. These findings could benefit the daily daytime ozone forecast in the PRD region and other areas.
Tia R. Scarpelli, Daniel J. Jacob, Shayna Grossman, Xiao Lu, Zhen Qu, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Yuzhong Zhang, Frances Reuland, Deborah Gordon, and John R. Worden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3235–3249, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3235-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3235-2022, 2022
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We present a spatially explicit version of the national inventories of oil, gas, and coal methane emissions as submitted by individual countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2021. We then use atmospheric modeling to compare our inventory emissions to atmospheric methane observations with the goal of identifying potential under- and overestimates of oil–gas methane emissions in the national inventories.
Xiaomeng Wu, Daoyuan Yang, Ruoxi Wu, Jiajun Gu, Yifan Wen, Shaojun Zhang, Rui Wu, Renjie Wang, Honglei Xu, K. Max Zhang, Ye Wu, and Jiming Hao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1939–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1939-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1939-2022, 2022
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Our work pioneered land-use machine learning methods for developing link-level emission inventories, utilizing hourly traffic profiles, including volume, speed, and fleet mix, obtained from the governmental intercity highway monitoring network in the "capital circles" of China. This research provides a platform to realize the near-real-time process of establishing high-resolution vehicle emission inventories for policy makers to engage in sophisticated traffic management.
Chenchao Zhan and Min Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1351–1371, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1351-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1351-2022, 2022
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The changes of land use and anthropogenic heat (AH) derived from urbanization can affect meteorology and in turn O3 evolution. In this study, we briefly describe the general features of O3 pollution in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) based on in situ observational data. Then, the impacts of land use and anthropogenic heat on O3 via changing the meteorological factors and local circulations are investigated in this region using the WRF-Chem model.
Hélène Peiro, Sean Crowell, Andrew Schuh, David F. Baker, Chris O'Dell, Andrew R. Jacobson, Frédéric Chevallier, Junjie Liu, Annmarie Eldering, David Crisp, Feng Deng, Brad Weir, Sourish Basu, Matthew S. Johnson, Sajeev Philip, and Ian Baker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1097–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1097-2022, 2022
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Satellite CO2 observations are constantly improved. We study an ensemble of different atmospheric models (inversions) from 2015 to 2018 using separate ground-based data or two versions of the OCO-2 satellite. Our study aims to determine if different satellite data corrections can yield different estimates of carbon cycle flux. A difference in the carbon budget between the two versions is found over tropical Africa, which seems to show the impact of corrections applied in satellite data.
Shelley van der Graaf, Enrico Dammers, Arjo Segers, Richard Kranenburg, Martijn Schaap, Mark W. Shephard, and Jan Willem Erisman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 951–972, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-951-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-951-2022, 2022
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CrIS NH3 satellite observations are assimilated into the LOTOS-EUROS model using two different methods. In the first method the data are used to fit spatially varying NH3 emission time factors. In the second method a local ensemble transform Kalman filter is used. Compared to in situ observations, combining both methods led to the most significant improvements in the modeled concentrations and deposition, illustrating the usefulness of CrIS NH3 to improve the spatiotemporal distribution of NH3.
Abhinna K. Behera, Emmanuel D. Rivière, Sergey M. Khaykin, Virginie Marécal, Mélanie Ghysels, Jérémie Burgalat, and Gerhard Held
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 881–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-881-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-881-2022, 2022
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Deep convection overshooting the stratosphere's contribution to the global stratospheric water budget is still being quantified. We ran three different cloud-resolving simulations of an observed case of overshoots in Bauru during the TRO-Pico balloon campaign in the context of upscaling the impact of overshoots at a large scale. These simulations, which have been validated with balloon-borne and S-band radar measurements, shed light on the local-scale variability and composition of overshoots.
Jiachen Zhu, Amos P. K. Tai, and Steve Hung Lam Yim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 765–782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-765-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-765-2022, 2022
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This study assessed O3 damage to plant and the subsequent effects on meteorology and air quality in China, whereby O3, meteorology, and vegetation can co-evolve with each other. We provided comprehensive understanding about how O3–vegetation impacts adversely affect plant growth and crop production, and contribute to global warming and severe O3 air pollution in China. Our findings clearly pinpoint the need to consider the O3 damage effects in both air quality studies and climate change studies.
Youwen Sun, Hao Yin, Xiao Lu, Justus Notholt, Mathias Palm, Cheng Liu, Yuan Tian, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18589–18608, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18589-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18589-2021, 2021
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This study uses high-resolution nested-grid GEOS-Chem simulation, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning method, and the exposure–response relationship to determine the drivers and evaluate the health risks of the unexpected surface O3 enhancements over the Sichuan Basin in 2020. These unexpected O3 enhancements were induced by meteorological anomalies and caused dramatically high health risks.
Sabour Baray, Daniel J. Jacob, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Jian-Xiong Sheng, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Dylan B. A. Jones, A. Anthony Bloom, and Robert McLaren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18101–18121, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18101-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18101-2021, 2021
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We use 2010–2015 surface and satellite observations to disentangle methane from anthropogenic and natural sources in Canada. Using a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem), the mismatch between modelled and observed methane concentrations can be used to infer emissions according to Bayesian statistics. Compared to prior knowledge, we show higher anthropogenic emissions attributed to energy and/or agriculture in Western Canada and lower natural emissions from Boreal wetlands.
Stefano Galmarini, Paul Makar, Olivia E. Clifton, Christian Hogrefe, Jesse O. Bash, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Tim Butler, Jason Ducker, Johannes Flemming, Alma Hodzic, Christopher D. Holmes, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Richard Kranenburg, Aurelia Lupascu, Juan Luis Perez-Camanyo, Jonathan Pleim, Young-Hee Ryu, Roberto San Jose, Donna Schwede, Sam Silva, and Ralf Wolke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15663–15697, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15663-2021, 2021
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This technical note presents the research protocols for phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4). This initiative has three goals: (i) to define the state of wet and dry deposition in regional models, (ii) to evaluate how dry deposition influences air concentration and flux predictions, and (iii) to identify the causes for prediction differences. The evaluation compares LULC-specific dry deposition and effective conductances and fluxes.
Sepehr Fathi, Mark Gordon, Paul A. Makar, Ayodeji Akingunola, Andrea Darlington, John Liggio, Katherine Hayden, and Shao-Meng Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15461–15491, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15461-2021, 2021
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We have investigated the accuracy of aircraft-based mass balance methodologies through computer model simulations of the atmosphere and air quality at a regional high-resolution scale. We have defined new quantitative metrics to reduce emission retrieval uncertainty by evaluating top-down mass balance estimates against the known simulated meteorology and input emissions. We also recommend methodologies and flight strategies for improved retrievals in future aircraft-based studies.
Cited articles
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Short summary
Monte Carlo ensemble simulations, Bayesian inversion, and machine learning are used to quantify uncertainty in the atmospheric transport and emissions of a controlled tracer released from a nuclear power plant. Uncertainty of different settings in a weather model and source terms in a dispersion model are jointly estimated. The algorithm is validated using model-generated output and field observations and can benefit atmospheric researchers who need to estimate tracer transport uncertainty.
Monte Carlo ensemble simulations, Bayesian inversion, and machine learning are used to quantify...
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