Articles | Volume 22, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7699-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7699-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Jun 2022
Research article |
| 15 Jun 2022
| 15 Jun 2022
The effect of ice supersaturation and thin cirrus on lapse rates in the upper troposphere
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt,
Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Lena Wilhelm
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt,
Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
now at: Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Sina Hofer
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt,
Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Susanne Rohs
IEK-8, Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich, Germany
Related authors
Sina Maria Hofer and Klaus Martin Gierens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9235–9247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9235-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9235-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The climate effect of contrails depends on the contrail lifetime. Thus, it is important to know what constrains the lifetime. In this paper, we characterise the two most important contrail dissolution processes via their respective timescales. Both timescales are in the order of a couple of hours, depending on the synoptic situation and the size of the contrail ice crystals. The combined timescale, which combines both processes, is the harmonic mean of the two single timescales.
Sina Maria Hofer and Klaus Martin Gierens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6843–6856, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ice supersaturation is an immaterial feature that does not generally move with the wind that carries contrails and cirrus clouds. Here we analyse the different motions and show that ice supersaturated regions (ISSRs) on average move slower than the wind, the direction of movement is usually quite similar, and the distributions of both velocities follow Weibull distributions. The almost identical direction of the movements is beneficial for contrail lifetimes.
Ziming Wang, Luca Bugliaro, Klaus Gierens, Michaela I. Hegglin, Susanne Rohs, Andreas Petzold, Stefan Kaufmann, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2845–2861, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2845-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2845-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Upper-tropospheric relative humidity bias in the ERA5 weather model is corrected by 10 % by an artificial neural network using aircraft in-service humidity data and thermodynamic and dynamical variables. The improved skills of the weather model will advance cirrus research, weather forecasts, and measures for contrail reduction.
Sina Hofer, Klaus Gierens, and Susanne Rohs
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7911–7925, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7911-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We try to improve the forecast of ice supersaturation (ISS) and potential persistent contrails using data on dynamical quantities in addition to temperature and relative humidity in a modern kind of regression model. Although the results are improved, they are not good enough for flight routing. The origin of the problem is the strong overlap of probability densities conditioned on cases with and without ice-supersaturated regions (ISSRs) in the important range of 70–100 %.
Dario Sperber and Klaus Gierens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15609–15627, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15609-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A significant share of aviation's climate impact is due to persistent contrails. Avoiding their creation is a step toward sustainable air transportation. For this purpose, a reliable forecast of so-called ice-supersaturated regions is needed, which then allows one to plan aircraft routes without persistent contrails. Here, we propose a method that leads to the better prediction of ice-supersaturated regions.
Sina Maria Hofer and Klaus Martin Gierens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9235–9247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9235-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9235-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The climate effect of contrails depends on the contrail lifetime. Thus, it is important to know what constrains the lifetime. In this paper, we characterise the two most important contrail dissolution processes via their respective timescales. Both timescales are in the order of a couple of hours, depending on the synoptic situation and the size of the contrail ice crystals. The combined timescale, which combines both processes, is the harmonic mean of the two single timescales.
Rodrigo J. Seguel, Charlie Opazo, Yann Cohen, Owen R. Cooper, Laura Gallardo, Björn-Martin Sinnhuber, Florian Obersteiner, Andreas Zahn, Peter Hoor, Susanne Rohs, and Andreas Marsing
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8553–8573, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8553-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8553-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We explored ozone differences between the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemispheres in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere. We found lower ozone (with stratospheric origin) in the Southern Hemisphere, especially during years of severe ozone depletion. Sudden stratospheric warming events increased the ozone in each hemisphere, highlighting the relationship between stratospheric processes and ozone in the upper troposphere, where ozone is an important greenhouse gas.
Sina Maria Hofer and Klaus Martin Gierens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6843–6856, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ice supersaturation is an immaterial feature that does not generally move with the wind that carries contrails and cirrus clouds. Here we analyse the different motions and show that ice supersaturated regions (ISSRs) on average move slower than the wind, the direction of movement is usually quite similar, and the distributions of both velocities follow Weibull distributions. The almost identical direction of the movements is beneficial for contrail lifetimes.
Yann Cohen, Didier Hauglustaine, Nicolas Bellouin, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Sigrun Matthes, Agnieszka Skowron, Robin Thor, Ulrich Bundke, Andreas Petzold, Susanne Rohs, Valérie Thouret, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5793–5836, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5793-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5793-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The chemical composition of the atmosphere near the tropopause is a key parameter for evaluating the climate impact of subsonic aviation pollutants. This study uses in situ data collected aboard passenger aircraft to assess the ability of four chemistry–climate models to reproduce (bi-)decadal climatologies of ozone, carbon monoxide, water vapour, and reactive nitrogen in this region. The models reproduce the very distinct ozone seasonality in the upper troposphere and in the lower stratosphere well.
Patrick Konjari, Christian Rolf, Michaela I. Hegglin, Susanne Rohs, Yun Li, Andreas Zahn, Harald Bönisch, Philippe Nedelec, Martina Krämer, and Andreas Petzold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4269–4289, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4269-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4269-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a new method to derive adjusted water vapor (H2O) climatologies for the upper tropopshere and lower statosphere (UT/LS) using data from 60 000 flights under the IAGOS program. Biases in the IAGOS water vapour dataset are adjusted, based on the more accurate IAGOS-CARIBIC data. The resulting highly resolved H2O climatologies will contribute to a better understanding of the H2O variability in the UT/LS and its connection to various transport and mixing processes.
Ziming Wang, Luca Bugliaro, Klaus Gierens, Michaela I. Hegglin, Susanne Rohs, Andreas Petzold, Stefan Kaufmann, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2845–2861, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2845-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2845-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Upper-tropospheric relative humidity bias in the ERA5 weather model is corrected by 10 % by an artificial neural network using aircraft in-service humidity data and thermodynamic and dynamical variables. The improved skills of the weather model will advance cirrus research, weather forecasts, and measures for contrail reduction.
Kevin Wolf, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Susanne Rohs, and Yun Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 157–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-157-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-157-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis and airborne in situ observations from IAGOS are compared in terms of the representation of the contrail formation potential and the presence of supersaturation. Differences are traced back to biases in ERA5 relative humidity fields. Those biases are addressed by applying a quantile mapping technique that significantly improved contrail estimation based on post-processed ERA5 data.
Sina Hofer, Klaus Gierens, and Susanne Rohs
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7911–7925, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7911-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We try to improve the forecast of ice supersaturation (ISS) and potential persistent contrails using data on dynamical quantities in addition to temperature and relative humidity in a modern kind of regression model. Although the results are improved, they are not good enough for flight routing. The origin of the problem is the strong overlap of probability densities conditioned on cases with and without ice-supersaturated regions (ISSRs) in the important range of 70–100 %.
Roger Teoh, Zebediah Engberg, Ulrich Schumann, Christiane Voigt, Marc Shapiro, Susanne Rohs, and Marc E. J. Stettler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6071–6093, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6071-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The radiative forcing (RF) due to aviation contrails is comparable to that caused by CO2. We estimate that global contrail net RF in 2019 was 62.1 mW m−2. This is ~1/2 the previous best estimate for 2018. Contrail RF varies regionally due to differences in conditions required for persistent contrails. COVID-19 reduced contrail RF by 54% in 2020 relative to 2019. Globally, 2 % of all flights account for 80 % of the annual contrail energy forcing, suggesting a opportunity to mitigate contrail RF.
Sidiki Sanogo, Olivier Boucher, Nicolas Bellouin, Audran Borella, Kevin Wolf, and Susanne Rohs
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5495–5511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Relative humidity relative to ice (RHi) is a key variable in the formation of cirrus clouds and contrails. This study shows that the properties of the probability density function of RHi differ between the tropics and higher latitudes. In line with RHi and temperature variability, aircraft are likely to produce more contrails with bioethanol and liquid hydrogen as fuel. The impact of this fuel change decreases with decreasing pressure levels but increases from high latitudes to the tropics.
Dario Sperber and Klaus Gierens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15609–15627, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15609-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A significant share of aviation's climate impact is due to persistent contrails. Avoiding their creation is a step toward sustainable air transportation. For this purpose, a reliable forecast of so-called ice-supersaturated regions is needed, which then allows one to plan aircraft routes without persistent contrails. Here, we propose a method that leads to the better prediction of ice-supersaturated regions.
Yann Cohen, Didier Hauglustaine, Bastien Sauvage, Susanne Rohs, Patrick Konjari, Ulrich Bundke, Andreas Petzold, Valérie Thouret, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14973–15009, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS) is a key region regarding the lower atmospheric composition. This study consists of a comprehensive evaluation of an up-to-date chemistry–climate model in this layer, using regular in situ measurements based on passenger aircraft. For this purpose, a specific software (Interpol-IAGOS) has been updated and made publicly available. The model reproduces the carbon monoxide peaks due to biomass burning over the continental tropics particularly well.
Yun Li, Christoph Mahnke, Susanne Rohs, Ulrich Bundke, Nicole Spelten, Georgios Dekoutsidis, Silke Groß, Christiane Voigt, Ulrich Schumann, Andreas Petzold, and Martina Krämer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2251–2271, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The radiative effect of aviation-induced cirrus is closely related to ambient conditions and its microphysical properties. Our study investigated the occurrence of contrail and natural cirrus measured above central Europe in spring 2014. It finds that contrail cirrus appears frequently in the pressure range 200 to 245 hPa and occurs more often in slightly ice-subsaturated environments than expected. Avoiding slightly ice-subsaturated regions by aviation might help mitigate contrail cirrus.
Victor Lannuque, Bastien Sauvage, Brice Barret, Hannah Clark, Gilles Athier, Damien Boulanger, Jean-Pierre Cammas, Jean-Marc Cousin, Alain Fontaine, Eric Le Flochmoën, Philippe Nédélec, Hervé Petetin, Isabelle Pfaffenzeller, Susanne Rohs, Herman G. J. Smit, Pawel Wolff, and Valérie Thouret
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14535–14555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14535-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14535-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The African intertropical troposphere is one of the world areas where the increase in ozone mixing ratio has been most pronounced since 1980 and where high carbon monoxide mixing ratios are found in altitude. In this article, IAGOS aircraft measurements, IASI satellite instrument observations, and SOFT-IO model products are used to explore the seasonal distribution variations and the origin of ozone and carbon monoxide over the African upper troposphere.
Cited articles
Birner, T.: Fine-scale structure of the extratropical tropopause region, J.
Geophys. Res., 111, D04104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006301, 2006. a
Birner, T., Dörnbrack, A., and Schumann, U.: How sharp is the tropopause at
midlatitudes?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1700, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015142,
2002. a
Bland, J., Gray, S., Methven, J., and Forbes, R.: Characterising extratropical
near-tropopause analysis humidity biases and their radiative effects on
temperature forecasts, Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 147, 3878–3898,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4150, 2021. a
Dee, D., Uppala, S., Simmons, A., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S.,
Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars,
A., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R.,
Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E.,
Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A.,
Monge-Sanz, B., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P.,
Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis:
configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
Diao, M., Zondlo, M. A., Heymsfield, A. J., Beaton, S. P., and Rogers, D. C.:
Evolution of ice crystal regions on the microscale based on in situ
observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3473–3478, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50665, 2013. a
Diao, M., Jensen, J., Pan, L., Homeyer, C., Honomichl, S., Bresch, J., and
Bansemer, A.: Distributions of ice supersaturation and ice crystals from
airborne observations in relation to upper tropospheric dynamical boundaries,
J. Geophys. Res., 120, 5101–5121, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023139, 2015. a
Doms, G., Förstner, J., Heise, E., Herzog, H., Mironov, D., Raschendorfer,
M., Reinhardt, T., Ritter, B., Schrodin, R., Schulz, J., and Vogel, G.: A
Description of the Nonhydrostatic Regional COSMO-Model, Part II: Physical
Parameterizations, Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling, COSMO 6.00,
https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD_pub/nwv/cosmo-doc_6.00_II, 2021. a
DWD (Deutscher Wetterdienst): PArallel MOdel data REtrieve from Oracle databases, Pamore [data set], https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/pamore/pamore.html?nn=342666, last access: 5 January 2022. a
Fusina, F., Spichtinger, P., and Lohmann, U.: Impact of ice supersaturated
regions and thin cirrus on radiation in the midlatitudes, J. Geophys. Res.,
112, D24S14, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008449, 2007. a
Gierens, K. and Brinkop, S.: Dynamical characteristics of ice supersaturated regions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 11933–11942, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11933-2012, 2012. a, b, c
Gierens, K. and Spichtinger, P.: On the size distribution of
ice-supersaturated regions in the upper troposphere and lowermost
stratosphere, Ann. Geophys., 18, 499–504, 2000. a
Gierens, K., Spichtinger, P., and Schumann, U.: Ice supersaturation, in:
Atmospheric Physics. Background – Methods – Trends, edited by: Schumann,
U., 9, 135–150, Springer, Heidelberg, Germany, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-30183-4, 2012. a, b, c
Gierens, K., Matthes, S., and Rohs, S.: How well can persistent contrails be
predicted?, Aerospace, 7, 169, https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace7120169, 2020. a
Gnuplot: gnuplot software, gnuplot [code], http://www.gnuplot.info/, last access: 13 June 2022. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I.,
Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5
hourly data on single levels from 1979 to present, Tech. rep., Copernicus
Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS),
https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, 2018a. a, b
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I.,
Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5
hourly data on pressure levels from 1979 to present, Tech. rep., Copernicus
Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS),
https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6, 2018b. a, b
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D.,
Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P.,
Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D.,
Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer,
A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M.,
Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P.,
Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global
reanalysis, Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a, b
IAGOS: IAGOS-CORE, IAGOS-MOZAIC, IAGOS-CARIBIC [data set], https://iagos.aeris-data.fr/download/#/, last access: 10 June 2022. a
Immler, F., Treffeisen, R., Engelbart, D., Krüger, K., and Schrems, O.: Cirrus, contrails, and ice supersaturated regions in high pressure systems at northern mid latitudes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 1689–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-1689-2008, 2008. a, b
Khvorostyanov, V. and Sassen, K.: Cirrus cloud simulation using explicit
microphysics and radiation. Part II: Microphysics, vapor and ice mass
budgets, and optical and radiative properties, J. Atmos. Sci., 55,
1822–1845, 1998. a
Malberg, H.: Meteorologie und Klimatologie: Eine Einführung, Springer,
Berlin, 4th edn., 395 p., ISBN 9783540372196, 2002. a
Marenco, A., Thouret, V., Nedelec, P., Smit, H., Helten, M., Kley, D., Karcher,
F., Simon, P., Law, K., Pyle, J., Poschmann, G., Wrede, R. V., Hume, C., and
Cook, T.: Measurement of ozone and water vapor by Airbus in-service aircraft:
The MOZAIC airborne program, An overview, J. Geophys. Res., 103,
25631–25642, 1998. a, b
NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science): IDL for Meteorology, NCAS [code], https://cms.ncas.ac.uk/ (last access: 1 August 2013), 2010. a
Neis, P., Smit, H., Rohs, S., Bundke, U., Krämer, M., Spelten, N., Ebert, V.,
Buchholz, B., Thomas, K., and Petzold, A.: Quality assessment of MOZAIC and
IAGOS capacitive hygrometers: insights from airborne field studies, Tellus B, 67, 1, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v67.28320, 2015. a, b
Ovarlez, J., Gayet, J.-F., Gierens, K., Ström, J., Ovarlez, H., Auriol, F.,
Busen, R., and Schumann, U.: Water vapour measurements inside cirrus clouds
in northern and southern hemispheres during INCA, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29,
1813, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014440, 2002. a
Petzold, A., Thouret, V., Gerbig, C., Zahn, A., Brenninkmeijer, C., Gallagher,
M., Hermann, M., Pontaud, M., Ziereis, H., Boulanger, D., Marshall, J.,
Nedelec, P., Smit, H., Friess, U., Flaud, J.-M., Wahner, A., Cammas, J.-P.,
and Volz-Thomas, A.: Global-scale atmosphere monitoring by in-service
aircraft – current achievements and future prospects of the European Research
Infrastructure IAGOS, Tellus B, 67, 28452, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v67.28452, 2015. a
Petzold, A., Neis, P., Rütimann, M., Rohs, S., Berkes, F., Smit, H. G. J., Krämer, M., Spelten, N., Spichtinger, P., Nédélec, P., and Wahner, A.: Ice-supersaturated air masses in the northern mid-latitudes from regular in situ observations by passenger aircraft: vertical distribution, seasonality and tropospheric fingerprint, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8157–8179, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8157-2020, 2020. a
Schumann, U., Mayer, B., Graf, K., and Mannstein, H.: A parametric radiative
forcing model for contrail cirrus, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 51,
1391–1406, 2012. a
Silverman, B. W.: Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis, no. 26
in Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability, Chapman and Hall/CRC,
Boca Raton, 176 p., ISBN 9780412246203, 1998. a
Spichtinger, P. and Gierens, K. M.: Modelling of cirrus clouds – Part 2: Competition of different nucleation mechanisms, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 2319–2334, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-2319-2009, 2009. a
Spichtinger, P., Gierens, K., Smit, H. G. J., Ovarlez, J., and Gayet, J.-F.: On the distribution of relative humidity in cirrus clouds, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 4, 639–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-4-639-2004, 2004. a
Sun, W., Videen, G., Kato, S., Lin, B., Lukashin, C., and Hu, Y.: A study of
subvisual clouds and their radiation effect with a synergy of CERES,
MODIS, CALIPSO, and AIRS data, J. Geophys. Res., 116, 1–10,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016422, 2011.
a, b, c
Tompkins, A., Gierens, K., and Rädel, G.: Ice supersaturation in the ECMWF
Integrated Forecast System, Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 133, 53–63, 2007. a
Wegener, A.: Meteorologische Terminbeobachtungen am Danmarks-Havn, in:
Meddelelser om Grønland, Vol. XLII: Danmark-Ekspeditionen til Grønlands
Nordøstkyst 1906–1908, Kommissionen for ledelsen
af de geologiske og geografiske undersøgelser i Grønland, 2, 125–356, 1914. a
Wilhelm, L., Gierens, K., and Rohs, S.: Weather variability induced uncertainty
of contrail radiative forcing, Aerospace, 8, 332, https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace8110332, 2021. a
Zängl, G., Reinert, D., Ripodas, P., and Baldauf, M.: The ICON (ICOsahedral
Non-hydrostatic) modelling framework of DWD and MPI-M: Description of the
non-hydrostatic dynamical core, Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 141, 563–579, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2378, 2015. a
Short summary
We are interested in the prediction of condensation trails, in particular strong ones. For this we need a good forecast of temperature and humidity in the levels where aircraft cruise. Unfortunately, the humidity forecast is quite difficult for these levels, in particular the ice supersaturation, which is needed for long-lasting contrails. We are thus seeking proxy variables that help distinguish situations where strong contrails can form, for instance the lapse rate.
We are interested in the prediction of condensation trails, in particular strong ones. For this...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint