Articles | Volume 22, issue 11
Research article
10 Jun 2022
Research article |  | 10 Jun 2022

Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble

Shipra Jain, Ruth M. Doherty, David Sexton, Steven Turnock, Chaofan Li, Zixuan Jia, Zongbo Shi, and Lin Pei

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Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
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Cited articles

An, Z., Huang, R. J., Zhang, R., Tie, X., Li, G., Cao, J., Zhou, W., Shi, Z., Han, Y., Gu, Z., and Ji, Y.: Severe haze in northern China: A synergy of anthropogenic emissions and atmospheric processes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 8657–8666,, 2019. 
Bai, N., Khazaei, M., van Eeden, S. F., and Laher, I.: The pharmacology of particulate matter air pollution-induced cardiovascular dysfunction, Pharmacol. Therapeut., 113, 16–29, 2007. 
Cai, W., Li, K., Liao, H., Wang, H., and Wu, L.: Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 257–262,, 2017. 
Callahan, C. W. and Mankin, J. S.: The Influence of Internal Climate Variability on Projections of Synoptically Driven Beijing Haze, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL088548,, 2020. 
Callahan, C. W., Schnell, J. L., and Horton, D. E.: Multi-index attribution of extreme winter air quality in Beijing, China, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 4567–4583, 2019. 
Short summary
We provide a range of future projections of winter haze and clear conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) using multiple simulations from a climate model for the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). The frequency of haze conducive weather is likely to increase whereas the frequency of clear weather is likely to decrease in future. The total number of hazy days for a given winter can be as much as ˜3.5 times higher than the number of clear days over the NCP.
Final-revised paper