Articles | Volume 19, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9469-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9469-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
On the representation of major stratospheric warmings in reanalyses
Departamento Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad
Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain
Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas – Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain
Froila M. Palmeiro
Departamento Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad
Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain
now at: Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS), Barcelona, Spain
David Barriopedro
Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas – Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain
Natalia Calvo
Departamento Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad
Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain
Ulrike Langematz
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin,
Berlin, 12165, Germany
Kiyotaka Shibata
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Kochi University of Technology, Kami, 7828502, Japan
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Forecast models that are used to predict weather often struggle to represent the Earth’s stratosphere. This may impact their ability to predict surface weather weeks in advance, on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. We use data from many S2S forecast systems to characterize and compare the stratospheric biases present in such forecast models. These models have many similar stratospheric biases, but they tend to be worse in systems with low model tops located within the stratosphere.
Marta Abalos, Natalia Calvo, Samuel Benito-Barca, Hella Garny, Steven C. Hardiman, Pu Lin, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Rolando Garcia, Clara Orbe, David Saint-Martin, Shingo Watanabe, and Kohei Yoshida
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The stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), responsible for transporting mass, tracers and heat globally in the stratosphere, is evaluated in a set of state-of-the-art climate models. The acceleration of the BDC in response to increasing greenhouse gases is most robust in the lower stratosphere. At higher levels, the well-known inconsistency between model and observational BDC trends can be partly reconciled by accounting for limited sampling and large uncertainties in the observations.
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
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In this review we describe the factors leading to the extreme water heights producing the floods of Venice. We discuss the different contributions, their relative importance, and the resulting compound events. We highlight the role of relative sea level rise and the observed past and very likely future increase in extreme water heights, showing that they might be up to 160 % higher at the end of the 21st century than presently.
Jacob W. Maddison, Marta Abalos, David Barriopedro, Ricardo García-Herrera, Jose M. Garrido-Perez, and Carlos Ordóñez
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 675–694, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-675-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-675-2021, 2021
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Air stagnation occurs when an air mass becomes settled over a region and precipitation is suppressed. Pollutant levels can rise during stagnation. The synoptic- to large-scale influence on European air stagnation and pollution is explored here. We show that around 60 % of the monthly variability in air stagnation and pollutants can be explained by dynamical indices describing the atmospheric circulation. The weather systems most related to stagnation are different for regions across Europe.
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Short summary
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are abrupt rises in the wintertime polar stratosphere that also affect the troposphere. Their study is hampered by the limited observations in the stratosphere and mostly relies on reanalyses, i.e., models that include observations. Here we compare the representation of SSWs by the most used reanalyses. SSW results are consistent across reanalyses but some differences are found, in particular before the satellite era.
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are abrupt rises in the wintertime polar stratosphere that...
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