Articles | Volume 18, issue 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13031-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13031-2018
Research article
 | 
11 Sep 2018
Research article |  | 11 Sep 2018

The importance of comprehensive parameter sampling and multiple observations for robust constraint of aerosol radiative forcing

Jill S. Johnson, Leighton A. Regayre, Masaru Yoshioka, Kirsty J. Pringle, Lindsay A. Lee, David M. H. Sexton, John W. Rostron, Ben B. B. Booth, and Kenneth S. Carslaw

Related authors

Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing
Leighton A. Regayre, Lucia Deaconu, Daniel P. Grosvenor, David M. H. Sexton, Christopher Symonds, Tom Langton, Duncan Watson-Paris, Jane P. Mulcahy, Kirsty J. Pringle, Mark Richardson, Jill S. Johnson, John W. Rostron, Hamish Gordon, Grenville Lister, Philip Stier, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8749–8768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8749-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Simulating organic aerosol in Delhi with WRF-Chem using the volatility-basis-set approach: exploring model uncertainty with a Gaussian process emulator
Ernesto Reyes-Villegas, Douglas Lowe, Jill S. Johnson, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Eoghan Darbyshire, Michael Flynn, James D. Allan, Hugh Coe, Ying Chen, Oliver Wild, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Alex Archibald, Siddhartha Singh, Manish Shrivastava, Rahul A. Zaveri, Vikas Singh, Gufran Beig, Ranjeet Sokhi, and Gordon McFiggans
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5763–5782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5763-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5763-2023, 2023
Short summary
Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing
Leighton A. Regayre, Lucia Deaconu, Daniel P. Grosvenor, David Sexton, Christopher C. Symonds, Tom Langton, Duncan Watson-Paris, Jane P. Mulcahy, Kirsty J. Pringle, Mark Richardson, Jill S. Johnson, John Rostron, Hamish Gordon, Grenville Lister, Philip Stier, and Ken S. Carslaw
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1330,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1330, 2022
Preprint archived
Short summary
Model emulation to understand the joint effects of ice-nucleating particles and secondary ice production on deep convective anvil cirrus
Rachel E. Hawker, Annette K. Miltenberger, Jill S. Johnson, Jonathan M. Wilkinson, Adrian A. Hill, Ben J. Shipway, Paul R. Field, Benjamin J. Murray, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17315–17343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17315-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17315-2021, 2021
Short summary
A global model perturbed parameter ensemble study of secondary organic aerosol formation
Kamalika Sengupta, Kirsty Pringle, Jill S. Johnson, Carly Reddington, Jo Browse, Catherine E. Scott, and Ken Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2693–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2693-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2693-2021, 2021
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Aerosols | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Regional to global distributions, trends, and drivers of biogenic volatile organic compound emission from 2001 to 2020
Hao Wang, Xiaohong Liu, Chenglai Wu, and Guangxing Lin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3309–3328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3309-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Impacts of ice-nucleating particles on cirrus clouds and radiation derived from global model simulations with MADE3 in EMAC
Christof G. Beer, Johannes Hendricks, and Mattia Righi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3217–3240, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3217-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Seasonal characteristics of emission, distribution, and radiative effect of marine organic aerosols over the western Pacific Ocean: an investigation with a coupled regional climate aerosol model
Jiawei Li, Zhiwei Han, Pingqing Fu, Xiaohong Yao, and Mingjie Liang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3129–3161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3129-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3129-2024, 2024
Short summary
Fire–precipitation interactions amplify the quasi-biennial variability in fires over southern Mexico and Central America
Yawen Liu, Yun Qian, Philip J. Rasch, Kai Zhang, Lai-yung Ruby Leung, Yuhang Wang, Minghuai Wang, Hailong Wang, Xin Huang, and Xiu-Qun Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3115–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3115-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Improved estimates of smoke exposure during Australia fire seasons: importance of quantifying plume injection heights
Xu Feng, Loretta J. Mickley, Michelle L. Bell, Tianjia Liu, Jenny A. Fisher, and Maria Val Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2985–3007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2985-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2985-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Allen, R. J., Norris, J. R., and Wild, M.: Evaluation of multidecadal variability in CMIP5 surface solar radiation and inferred underestimation of aerosol direct effects over Europe, China, Japan, and India, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 6311–6336, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50426, 2013. 
Andreae, M. O., Jones, C. D., and Cox, P. M.: Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future, Nature, 435, 1187–1190, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03671, 2005. 
Andres, R. J. and Kasgnoc, A. D.: A time-averaged inventory of subaerial volcanic sulfur emissions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 103, 25251–25261, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JD02091, 1998. 
Andrianakis, I., Vernon, I., McCreesh, N., McKinley, T. J., Oakley, J. E., Nsubuga, R. N., Goldstein, M., and White, R. G.: History matching of a complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus transmission by using variance emulation, J. R. Stat. Soc. C-Appl., 66, 717–740, https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12198, 2017. 
Ban-weiss, G. A., Jin, L., Bauer, S. E., Bennartz, R., Liu, X., Zhang, K., Ming, Y., Guo, H., and Jiang, J. H.: Evaluating clouds, aerosols, and their interactions in three global climate models using satellite simulators and observations, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 10876–10901, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021722, 2014. 
Download
Short summary
We estimate the uncertainty in an aerosol–climate model that has been tuned to match several common types of observations. We used a large set of model simulations and built emulators so that we could generate 4 million “variants” of our climate model. Even after using nine aerosol and cloud observations to constrain the model, the uncertainty remains large. We conclude that estimates of aerosol forcing from multi-model studies are likely to be more uncertain than currently estimated.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint