Articles | Volume 18, issue 17
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13031–13053, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13031-2018
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13031–13053, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13031-2018

Research article 11 Sep 2018

Research article | 11 Sep 2018

The importance of comprehensive parameter sampling and multiple observations for robust constraint of aerosol radiative forcing

Jill S. Johnson et al.

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AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by Jill Johnson on behalf of the Authors (06 Aug 2018)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (07 Aug 2018) by Patrick Chuang
AR by Jill Johnson on behalf of the Authors (17 Aug 2018)  Author's response    Manuscript
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Short summary
We estimate the uncertainty in an aerosol–climate model that has been tuned to match several common types of observations. We used a large set of model simulations and built emulators so that we could generate 4 million “variants” of our climate model. Even after using nine aerosol and cloud observations to constrain the model, the uncertainty remains large. We conclude that estimates of aerosol forcing from multi-model studies are likely to be more uncertain than currently estimated.
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