Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2559-2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2559-2016
Research article
 | 
02 Mar 2016
Research article |  | 02 Mar 2016

Using statistical models to explore ensemble uncertainty in climate impact studies: the example of air pollution in Europe

Vincent E. P. Lemaire, Augustin Colette, and Laurent Menut

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Subject: Aerosols | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
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Cited articles

Bessagnet, B., Seigneur, C., and Menut, L.: Impact of dry deposition of semi-volatile organic compounds on secondary organic aerosols, Atmos. Environ., 44, 1781–1787, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.01.027, 2010.
Cattiaux, J., Douville, H., and Peings, Y.: European temperatures in CMIP5: origins of present-day biases and future uncertainties, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2889–2907, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1731-y, 2013.
Christensen, J. and Christensen, O.: A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century, Climatic Change, 81, 7–30, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9210-7, 2007.
Colette, A., Granier, C., Hodnebrog, Ø., Jakobs, H., Maurizi, A., Nyiri, A., Bessagnet, B., D'Angiola, A., D'Isidoro, M., Gauss, M., Meleux, F., Memmesheimer, M., Mieville, A., Rouïl, L., Russo, F., Solberg, S., Stordal, F., and Tampieri, F.: Air quality trends in Europe over the past decade: a first multi-model assessment, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 11657–11678, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-11657-2011, 2011.
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Short summary
Because of its sensitivity to unfavorable weather patterns, air pollution is sensitive to climate change. Its impact is typically assessed using deterministic chemistry-transport models forced by an ensemble of climate projection. Because of the high computational cost of such initiative, elaborated techniques are required to optimize the exploration of ensemble of future projections. We develop such a technique, which also allows quantifying uncertainties in climate and air quality projections.
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