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Volume 16, issue 23
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14843–14852, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14843-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14843–14852, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14843-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 30 Nov 2016

Research article | 30 Nov 2016

Seasonal prediction of winter haze days in the north central North China Plain

Zhicong Yin and Huijun Wang

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Cited articles

Barnston, A. G. and Livezey, R. E.: Classification, seasonality and persistence of low frequency atmospheric circulation patterns, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1083–1126, 1987.
Chen, H. P. and Wang, H, J.: Haze days in North China and the associated atmospheric circulations based on daily visibility data from 1960 to 2012, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 5895–5909, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023225, 2015.
CMA: China ground observation data sets, available at: http://data.cma.cn/, last access: 29 November 2016 (in Chinese).
CPC: CPC Soil Moisture data sets, available at: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.cpcsoil.html, last access: 29 November 2016a.
CPC: CPC Daily Antarctic Oscillation Index, available at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index.html, last access: 29 November 2016b.
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Recently, the winter haze pollution over the north central North China Plain has become severe. By treating the year-to-year increment as the predictand, two new statistical schemes were established using the multiple linear regression and the generalized additive model approaches. After cross validation, both of these models could capture the interannual and interdecadal trends and the extremums successfully. Independent tests for 2014 and 2015 also confirmed the good predictive skill.
Recently, the winter haze pollution over the north central North China Plain has become severe....
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