Articles | Volume 18, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4019-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4019-2018
Research article
 | 
22 Mar 2018
Research article |  | 22 Mar 2018

Volcanic ash modeling with the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model: quantification of offline modeling errors

Alejandro Marti and Arnau Folch

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Subject: Aerosols | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
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Cited articles

Badia, A., Jorba, O., Voulgarakis, A., Dabdub, D., Pérez García-Pando, C., Hilboll, A., Gonçalves, M., and Janjic, Z.: Description and evaluation of the Multiscale Online Nonhydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry model (NMMB-MONARCH) version 1.0: gas-phase chemistry at global scale, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 609–638, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-609-2017, 2017. 
Bonadonna, C., Folch, A., Loughlin, S., and Puempel, H.: Report on the IAVCEI-WMO workshop on Ash Dispersal Forecast and Civil Aviation, IUGG Newsletter, 11, 6–7, 2010. 
Bonadonna, C., Genco, R., Gouhier, M., Pistolesi, M., Cioni, R., Alfano, F., Hoskuldsson, A., and Ripepe, M.: Tephra sedimentation during the 2010 Eyjafjallajkull eruption (Iceland) from deposit, radar, and satellite observations, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 116, B12202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB008462, 2011. 
Bonadonna, C., Folch, A., Loughlin, S., and Puempel, H.: Future developments in modelling and monitoring of volcanic ash clouds: Outcomes from the first IAVCEI-WMO workshop on Ash Dispersal Forecast and Civil Aviation, B. Volcanol., 74, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0508-6, 2012. 
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We use the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model to quantify the systematic errors associated with traditional offline modeling systems used for operational volcanic ash forecast. Evaluation scores indicate that uncertainties credited to offline modeling are of the same order of magnitude as those associated with the source term, failing to reproduce up to 45–70 % of the ash cloud of an online forecast. This work encourages operational groups to consider online dispersal models for real-time aviation advisory.
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