Articles | Volume 18, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4019-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4019-2018
Research article
 | 
22 Mar 2018
Research article |  | 22 Mar 2018

Volcanic ash modeling with the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model: quantification of offline modeling errors

Alejandro Marti and Arnau Folch

Download

Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by Alejandro Marti on behalf of the Authors (19 Oct 2017)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (21 Nov 2017) by Stefano Galmarini
Download
Short summary
We use the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model to quantify the systematic errors associated with traditional offline modeling systems used for operational volcanic ash forecast. Evaluation scores indicate that uncertainties credited to offline modeling are of the same order of magnitude as those associated with the source term, failing to reproduce up to 45–70 % of the ash cloud of an online forecast. This work encourages operational groups to consider online dispersal models for real-time aviation advisory.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint