Volcanic ash modeling with the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model: quantification of offline modeling errors

Marti, Alejandro; Folch, Arnau

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4019-2018

Articles | Volume 18, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4019-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4019-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 18, issue 6

Research article

|

22 Mar 2018

Research article |

| 22 Mar 2018

Volcanic ash modeling with the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model: quantification of offline modeling errors

Alejandro Marti and Arnau Folch

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Final revised paper (published on 22 Mar 2018)
Preprint (discussion started on 23 May 2017)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Reviewer 2', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Jun 2017
RC2: 'A highly significant study on the errors associated with offline modeling of tephra dispersion', Larry Mastin, 20 Jun 2017
AC1: 'Response to Referees', Alejandro Marti, 19 Oct 2017

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by Alejandro Marti on behalf of the Authors (19 Oct 2017) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (21 Nov 2017) by Stefano Galmarini

AR by Alejandro Marti on behalf of the Authors (21 Nov 2017) Manuscript

Short summary

We use the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model to quantify the systematic errors associated with traditional offline modeling systems used for operational volcanic ash forecast. Evaluation scores indicate that uncertainties credited to offline modeling are of the same order of magnitude as those associated with the source term, failing to reproduce up to 45–70 % of the ash cloud of an online forecast. This work encourages operational groups to consider online dispersal models for real-time aviation advisory.