Articles | Volume 18, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4019-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4019-2018
Research article
 | 
22 Mar 2018
Research article |  | 22 Mar 2018

Volcanic ash modeling with the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model: quantification of offline modeling errors

Alejandro Marti and Arnau Folch

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Latest update: 20 Nov 2024
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Short summary
We use the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model to quantify the systematic errors associated with traditional offline modeling systems used for operational volcanic ash forecast. Evaluation scores indicate that uncertainties credited to offline modeling are of the same order of magnitude as those associated with the source term, failing to reproduce up to 45–70 % of the ash cloud of an online forecast. This work encourages operational groups to consider online dispersal models for real-time aviation advisory.
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