Articles | Volume 16, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5481-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5481-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 May 2016
Research article |
| 03 May 2016
Detecting long-term changes in point-source fossil CO2 emissions with tree ring archives
National Isotope Centre, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Jocelyn C. Turnbull
National Isotope Centre, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
Margaret W. Norris
National Isotope Centre, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Related authors
Beata Bukosa, Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher, Gordon Brailsford, Dan Smale, Elizabeth D. Keller, W. Troy Baisden, Miko U. F. Kirschbaum, Donna L. Giltrap, Lìyı̌n Liáng, Stuart Moore, Rowena Moss, Sylvia Nichol, Jocelyn Turnbull, Alex Geddes, Daemon Kennett, Dora Hidy, Zoltán Barcza, Louis A. Schipper, Aaron M. Wall, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Hitoshi Mukai, and Andrea Brandon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3866, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used atmospheric measurements and inverse modeling to estimate New Zealand's carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and removals from 2011 to 2020. Our study reveals that New Zealand's land absorbs more CO₂ than previously estimated, particularly in areas dominated by indigenous forests. Our results highlight gaps in current national CO₂ estimates and methods, suggesting a need for further research to improve emissions reporting and refine approaches to track progress toward climate mitigation goals.
Vincent Charnay, Daniel P. Lowry, Elizabeth D. Keller, and Abha Sood
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3638, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3638, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
Our study evaluates models' ability to simulate Antarctic regional climate features by comparing available PMIP past1000 and the CESM-LME models to sets of Last Millennium Antarctic proxy-based reconstructions most relevant to the surface mass balance. We later look at their implications for 21st-century sea level rise. We show that no model performs equally well for all sets of variables, and the best-scoring model predicts a higher surface mass balance by 2100.
James E. Lee, Edward J. Brook, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Christo Buizert, Troy Baisden, Thomas Blunier, V. Gabriela Ciobanu, Howard Conway, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Tyler J. Fudge, Richard Hindmarsh, Elizabeth D. Keller, Frédéric Parrenin, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Paul Vallelonga, Edwin D. Waddington, and Mai Winstrup
Clim. Past, 16, 1691–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1691-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1691-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Roosevelt Island ice core was drilled to investigate climate from the eastern Ross Sea, West Antarctica. We describe the ice age-scale and gas age-scale of the ice core for 0–763 m (83 000 years BP). Old ice near the bottom of the core implies the ice dome existed throughout the last glacial period and that ice streaming was active in the region. Variations in methane, similar to those used as evidence of early human influence on climate, were observed prior to significant human populations.
Mai Winstrup, Paul Vallelonga, Helle A. Kjær, Tyler J. Fudge, James E. Lee, Marie H. Riis, Ross Edwards, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Thomas Blunier, Ed J. Brook, Christo Buizert, Gabriela Ciobanu, Howard Conway, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Aja Ellis, B. Daniel Emanuelsson, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Elizabeth D. Keller, Andrei V. Kurbatov, Paul A. Mayewski, Peter D. Neff, Rebecca L. Pyne, Marius F. Simonsen, Anders Svensson, Andrea Tuohy, Edwin D. Waddington, and Sarah Wheatley
Clim. Past, 15, 751–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-751-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-751-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present a 2700-year timescale and snow accumulation history for an ice core from Roosevelt Island, Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica. We observe a long-term slightly decreasing trend in accumulation during most of the period but a rapid decline since the mid-1960s. The latter is linked to a recent strengthening of the Amundsen Sea Low and the expansion of regional sea ice. The year 1965 CE may thus mark the onset of significant increases in sea-ice extent in the eastern Ross Sea.
Elizabeth D. Keller, W. Troy Baisden, Nancy A. N. Bertler, B. Daniel Emanuelsson, Silvia Canessa, and Andy Phillips
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 4725–4736, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4725-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4725-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a systematic approach to the calibration and uncertainty estimation of a high-resolution continuous flow analysis (CFA) water isotope (δ2H, δ18O) record from the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) Antarctic ice core. Our method establishes robust uncertainty estimates for CFA δ2H and δ18O measurements, comparable to those reported for discrete sample δ2H and δ18O analysis. The resulting mean total errors for the record are 0.74 ‰ and 0.21 ‰ for δ2H and δ18O, respectively.
Nancy A. N. Bertler, Howard Conway, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Daniel B. Emanuelsson, Mai Winstrup, Paul T. Vallelonga, James E. Lee, Ed J. Brook, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Taylor J. Fudge, Elizabeth D. Keller, W. Troy Baisden, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Peter D. Neff, Thomas Blunier, Ross Edwards, Paul A. Mayewski, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Christo Buizert, Silvia Canessa, Ruzica Dadic, Helle A. Kjær, Andrei Kurbatov, Dongqi Zhang, Edwin D. Waddington, Giovanni Baccolo, Thomas Beers, Hannah J. Brightley, Lionel Carter, David Clemens-Sewall, Viorela G. Ciobanu, Barbara Delmonte, Lukas Eling, Aja Ellis, Shruthi Ganesh, Nicholas R. Golledge, Skylar Haines, Michael Handley, Robert L. Hawley, Chad M. Hogan, Katelyn M. Johnson, Elena Korotkikh, Daniel P. Lowry, Darcy Mandeno, Robert M. McKay, James A. Menking, Timothy R. Naish, Caroline Noerling, Agathe Ollive, Anaïs Orsi, Bernadette C. Proemse, Alexander R. Pyne, Rebecca L. Pyne, James Renwick, Reed P. Scherer, Stefanie Semper, Marius Simonsen, Sharon B. Sneed, Eric J. Steig, Andrea Tuohy, Abhijith Ulayottil Venugopal, Fernando Valero-Delgado, Janani Venkatesh, Feitang Wang, Shimeng Wang, Dominic A. Winski, V. Holly L. Winton, Arran Whiteford, Cunde Xiao, Jiao Yang, and Xin Zhang
Clim. Past, 14, 193–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-193-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-193-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Temperature and snow accumulation records from the annually dated Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core show that for the past 2 700 years, the eastern Ross Sea warmed, while the western Ross Sea showed no trend and West Antarctica cooled. From the 17th century onwards, this dipole relationship changed. Now all three regions show concurrent warming, with snow accumulation declining in West Antarctica and the eastern Ross Sea.
Kay Steinkamp, Sara E. Mikaloff Fletcher, Gordon Brailsford, Dan Smale, Stuart Moore, Elizabeth D. Keller, W. Troy Baisden, Hitoshi Mukai, and Britton B. Stephens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 47–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-47-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-47-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The exchange of carbon dioxide between the land biosphere in New Zealand and the atmosphere is estimated by combining measurements of the concentration of the gas in the air with model simulations of atmospheric circulation. The results indicate that over the study period of 2011–2013, New Zealand is a larger net sink for CO2 than estimated in the National Inventory Report. Regions in the western South Island, especially those covered predominantly by forests, contribute the most to this signal.
B. D. Emanuelsson, W. T. Baisden, N. A. N. Bertler, E. D. Keller, and V. Gkinis
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 2869–2883, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2869-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2869-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present an experimental setup for water stable isotopes continuous flow measurements. It is the first continuous flow laser spectroscopy system that is using off-axis integrated cavity output spectroscopy (analyzer manufactured by LGR) in combination with an evaporation unit to continuously analyze sample from an ice core. The isotopic water analyzer setup used during the 2013 RICE ice core processing campaign achieved measurements with high precision and high temporal resolution.
E. D. Keller, W. T. Baisden, L. Timar, B. Mullan, and A. Clark
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2359–2391, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2359-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2359-2014, 2014
J. C. Turnbull, E. D. Keller, T. Baisden, G. Brailsford, T. Bromley, M. Norris, and A. Zondervan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5001–5014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5001-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5001-2014, 2014
Marjolaine Verret, Sebastian Naeher, Denis Lacelle, Catherine Ginnane, Warren Dickinson, Kevin Norton, Jocelyn Turnbull, and Richard Levy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-786, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
15 million years ago, the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica were dominated by a tundra environment. In contrast, the modern environment is amongst the coldest and driest on Earth. Using a permafrost core, this paper investigates the shift from a tundra- to a bacteria-dominated landscape. By differentiating between ancient and modern organic material, we further our understanding of preservation of ancient organic material and its response and contribution to future climate change.
Christian Blair Lewis, Rachel Corran, Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher, Erik Behrens, Rowena Moss, Gordon Brailsford, Andrew Lorrey, Margaret Norris, and Jocelyn Turnbull
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4107, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Ocean carbon sink is a balance between two opposing forces: CO2 absorption at mid-latitudes and CO2 outgassing at high-latitudes. Radiocarbon analysis can be used to constrain the latter, as upwelling waters outgas old CO2, diluting atmospheric radiocarbon content. We present tree-ring radiocarbon measurements from New Zealand and Chile. We show that low radiocarbon in New Zealand’s Campbell Island is linked to outgassing in the critical Antarctic Southern Zone.
Beata Bukosa, Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher, Gordon Brailsford, Dan Smale, Elizabeth D. Keller, W. Troy Baisden, Miko U. F. Kirschbaum, Donna L. Giltrap, Lìyı̌n Liáng, Stuart Moore, Rowena Moss, Sylvia Nichol, Jocelyn Turnbull, Alex Geddes, Daemon Kennett, Dora Hidy, Zoltán Barcza, Louis A. Schipper, Aaron M. Wall, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Hitoshi Mukai, and Andrea Brandon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3866, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used atmospheric measurements and inverse modeling to estimate New Zealand's carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and removals from 2011 to 2020. Our study reveals that New Zealand's land absorbs more CO₂ than previously estimated, particularly in areas dominated by indigenous forests. Our results highlight gaps in current national CO₂ estimates and methods, suggesting a need for further research to improve emissions reporting and refine approaches to track progress toward climate mitigation goals.
Vincent Charnay, Daniel P. Lowry, Elizabeth D. Keller, and Abha Sood
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3638, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3638, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
Our study evaluates models' ability to simulate Antarctic regional climate features by comparing available PMIP past1000 and the CESM-LME models to sets of Last Millennium Antarctic proxy-based reconstructions most relevant to the surface mass balance. We later look at their implications for 21st-century sea level rise. We show that no model performs equally well for all sets of variables, and the best-scoring model predicts a higher surface mass balance by 2100.
Regina Gonzalez Moguel, Felix Vogel, Sébastien Ars, Hinrich Schaefer, Jocelyn C. Turnbull, and Peter M. J. Douglas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2121–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2121-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Evaluating methane (CH4) sources in the Athabasca oil sands region (AOSR) is crucial to effectively mitigate CH4 emissions. We tested the use of carbon isotopes to estimate source contributions from key CH4 sources in the AOSR and found that 56 ± 18 % of CH4 emissions originated from surface mining and processing facilities, 34 ± 18 % from tailings ponds, and 10 ± < 1 % from wetlands, confirming previous findings and showing that this method can be successfully used to partition CH4 sources.
Haeyoung Lee, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Jocelyn C. Turnbull, Sepyo Lee, Scott J. Lehman, John B. Miller, Gabrielle Pétron, Jeong-Sik Lim, Gang-Woong Lee, Sang-Sam Lee, and Young-San Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12033–12045, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To understand South Korea's CO2 emissions and sinks as well as those of the surrounding region, we used flask-air samples collected for 2 years at Anmyeondo (36.53° N, 126.32° E; 46 m a.s.l.), South Korea, for analysis of observed 14C in atmospheric CO2 as a tracer of fossil fuel CO2 contribution (Cff). Here, we showed our observation result of 14C and Cff. SF6 and CO can be good proxies of Cff in this study, and the ratio of CO to Cff was compared to a bottom-up inventory.
James E. Lee, Edward J. Brook, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Christo Buizert, Troy Baisden, Thomas Blunier, V. Gabriela Ciobanu, Howard Conway, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Tyler J. Fudge, Richard Hindmarsh, Elizabeth D. Keller, Frédéric Parrenin, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Paul Vallelonga, Edwin D. Waddington, and Mai Winstrup
Clim. Past, 16, 1691–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1691-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1691-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Roosevelt Island ice core was drilled to investigate climate from the eastern Ross Sea, West Antarctica. We describe the ice age-scale and gas age-scale of the ice core for 0–763 m (83 000 years BP). Old ice near the bottom of the core implies the ice dome existed throughout the last glacial period and that ice streaming was active in the region. Variations in methane, similar to those used as evidence of early human influence on climate, were observed prior to significant human populations.
Isaac J. Vimont, Jocelyn C. Turnbull, Vasilii V. Petrenko, Philip F. Place, Colm Sweeney, Natasha Miles, Scott Richardson, Bruce H. Vaughn, and James W. C. White
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8547–8562, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8547-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8547-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Stable isotopes of Carbon Monoxide (CO) and radiocarbon carbon dioxide were measured over three summers at Indianapolis, Indiana, US, and for 1 year at a site thought to be strongly influenced by CO from oxidized volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in South Carolina, US. The Indianapolis results were used to provide an estimate of the carbon and oxygen isotopic signatures of CO produced from oxidized VOCs. This updated estimate agrees well with the data from South Carolina during the summer.
Mai Winstrup, Paul Vallelonga, Helle A. Kjær, Tyler J. Fudge, James E. Lee, Marie H. Riis, Ross Edwards, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Thomas Blunier, Ed J. Brook, Christo Buizert, Gabriela Ciobanu, Howard Conway, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Aja Ellis, B. Daniel Emanuelsson, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Elizabeth D. Keller, Andrei V. Kurbatov, Paul A. Mayewski, Peter D. Neff, Rebecca L. Pyne, Marius F. Simonsen, Anders Svensson, Andrea Tuohy, Edwin D. Waddington, and Sarah Wheatley
Clim. Past, 15, 751–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-751-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-751-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present a 2700-year timescale and snow accumulation history for an ice core from Roosevelt Island, Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica. We observe a long-term slightly decreasing trend in accumulation during most of the period but a rapid decline since the mid-1960s. The latter is linked to a recent strengthening of the Amundsen Sea Low and the expansion of regional sea ice. The year 1965 CE may thus mark the onset of significant increases in sea-ice extent in the eastern Ross Sea.
Elizabeth D. Keller, W. Troy Baisden, Nancy A. N. Bertler, B. Daniel Emanuelsson, Silvia Canessa, and Andy Phillips
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 4725–4736, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4725-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4725-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a systematic approach to the calibration and uncertainty estimation of a high-resolution continuous flow analysis (CFA) water isotope (δ2H, δ18O) record from the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) Antarctic ice core. Our method establishes robust uncertainty estimates for CFA δ2H and δ18O measurements, comparable to those reported for discrete sample δ2H and δ18O analysis. The resulting mean total errors for the record are 0.74 ‰ and 0.21 ‰ for δ2H and δ18O, respectively.
Nancy A. N. Bertler, Howard Conway, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Daniel B. Emanuelsson, Mai Winstrup, Paul T. Vallelonga, James E. Lee, Ed J. Brook, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Taylor J. Fudge, Elizabeth D. Keller, W. Troy Baisden, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Peter D. Neff, Thomas Blunier, Ross Edwards, Paul A. Mayewski, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Christo Buizert, Silvia Canessa, Ruzica Dadic, Helle A. Kjær, Andrei Kurbatov, Dongqi Zhang, Edwin D. Waddington, Giovanni Baccolo, Thomas Beers, Hannah J. Brightley, Lionel Carter, David Clemens-Sewall, Viorela G. Ciobanu, Barbara Delmonte, Lukas Eling, Aja Ellis, Shruthi Ganesh, Nicholas R. Golledge, Skylar Haines, Michael Handley, Robert L. Hawley, Chad M. Hogan, Katelyn M. Johnson, Elena Korotkikh, Daniel P. Lowry, Darcy Mandeno, Robert M. McKay, James A. Menking, Timothy R. Naish, Caroline Noerling, Agathe Ollive, Anaïs Orsi, Bernadette C. Proemse, Alexander R. Pyne, Rebecca L. Pyne, James Renwick, Reed P. Scherer, Stefanie Semper, Marius Simonsen, Sharon B. Sneed, Eric J. Steig, Andrea Tuohy, Abhijith Ulayottil Venugopal, Fernando Valero-Delgado, Janani Venkatesh, Feitang Wang, Shimeng Wang, Dominic A. Winski, V. Holly L. Winton, Arran Whiteford, Cunde Xiao, Jiao Yang, and Xin Zhang
Clim. Past, 14, 193–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-193-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-193-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Temperature and snow accumulation records from the annually dated Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core show that for the past 2 700 years, the eastern Ross Sea warmed, while the western Ross Sea showed no trend and West Antarctica cooled. From the 17th century onwards, this dipole relationship changed. Now all three regions show concurrent warming, with snow accumulation declining in West Antarctica and the eastern Ross Sea.
Jocelyn C. Turnbull, Sara E. Mikaloff Fletcher, India Ansell, Gordon W. Brailsford, Rowena C. Moss, Margaret W. Norris, and Kay Steinkamp
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14771–14784, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14771-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14771-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a 60-year record of radiocarbon in carbon dioxide (14CO2) from Wellington New Zealand. It records the atmospheric 14C “bomb spike” and decline as bomb 14C moved through the carbon cycle and fossil fuel emissions increased. The bomb peak is lower and 1.4 years later than in the Northern Hemisphere. Since the early 2000s, Wellington 14CO2 has been elevated above the Northern Hemisphere, possibly due to a reinvigorated Southern Ocean carbon sink.
Kay Steinkamp, Sara E. Mikaloff Fletcher, Gordon Brailsford, Dan Smale, Stuart Moore, Elizabeth D. Keller, W. Troy Baisden, Hitoshi Mukai, and Britton B. Stephens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 47–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-47-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-47-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The exchange of carbon dioxide between the land biosphere in New Zealand and the atmosphere is estimated by combining measurements of the concentration of the gas in the air with model simulations of atmospheric circulation. The results indicate that over the study period of 2011–2013, New Zealand is a larger net sink for CO2 than estimated in the National Inventory Report. Regions in the western South Island, especially those covered predominantly by forests, contribute the most to this signal.
B. D. Emanuelsson, W. T. Baisden, N. A. N. Bertler, E. D. Keller, and V. Gkinis
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 2869–2883, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2869-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2869-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present an experimental setup for water stable isotopes continuous flow measurements. It is the first continuous flow laser spectroscopy system that is using off-axis integrated cavity output spectroscopy (analyzer manufactured by LGR) in combination with an evaporation unit to continuously analyze sample from an ice core. The isotopic water analyzer setup used during the 2013 RICE ice core processing campaign achieved measurements with high precision and high temporal resolution.
E. D. Keller, W. T. Baisden, L. Timar, B. Mullan, and A. Clark
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2359–2391, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2359-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2359-2014, 2014
J. C. Turnbull, E. D. Keller, T. Baisden, G. Brailsford, T. Bromley, M. Norris, and A. Zondervan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5001–5014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5001-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5001-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
The importance of moist thermodynamics on neutral buoyancy height for plumes from anthropogenic sources
Partitioning anthropogenic and natural methane emissions in Finland during 2000–2021 by combining bottom-up and top-down estimates
The role of OCO-3 XCO2 retrievals in estimating global terrestrial net ecosystem exchanges
Inverse modelling of New Zealand's carbon dioxide balance estimates a larger than expected carbon sink
The improved Trajectory-mapped Ozonesonde dataset for the Stratosphere and Troposphere (TOST): update, validation and applications
Quantifying transboundary transport flux of CO over the Tibetan Plateau: variabilities and drivers
Tracing the origins of stratospheric ozone intrusions: direct vs. indirect pathways and their impacts on Central and Eastern China in spring–summer 2019
Flow-dependent observation errors for greenhouse gas inversions in an ensemble Kalman smoother
Observational and model evidence for a prominent stratospheric influence on variability in tropospheric nitrous oxide
Estimation of Canada's methane emissions: inverse modelling analysis using the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) measurement network
Spatiotemporal source apportionment of ozone pollution over the Greater Bay Area
Potential of 14C-based vs. ΔCO-based ΔffCO2 observations to estimate urban fossil fuel CO2 (ffCO2) emissions
Combined CO2 measurement record indicates decreased Amazon forest carbon uptake, offset by Savannah carbon release
On the uncertainty of anthropogenic aromatic volatile organic compound emissions: model evaluation and sensitivity analysis
A mechanism of stratospheric O3 intrusion into the atmospheric environment: a case study of the North China Plain
Influence of atmospheric circulation on the interannual variability of transport from global and regional emissions into the Arctic
Surface networks in the Arctic may miss a future methane bomb
Potential of using CO2 observations over India in a regional carbon budget estimation by improving the modelling system
A bottom-up emission estimate for the 2022 Nord Stream gas leak: derivation, simulations, and evaluation
Can we gain knowledge on COS anthropogenic and biogenic emissions from a single atmospheric mixing ratios measurement site?
European CH4 inversions with ICON-ART coupled to the CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell
Extreme weather exacerbates ozone pollution in the Pearl River Delta, China: role of natural processes
Multidecadal ozone trends in China and implications for human health and crop yields: a hybrid approach combining a chemical transport model and machine learning
On the influence of vertical mixing, boundary layer schemes, and temporal emission profiles on tropospheric NO2 in WRF-Chem – comparisons to in situ, satellite, and MAX-DOAS observations
Decreasing trends of ammonia emissions over Europe seen from remote sensing and inverse modelling
The sensitivity of Southern Ocean atmospheric dimethyl sulfide (DMS) to modeled oceanic DMS concentrations and emissions
Impacts of maritime shipping on air pollution along the US East Coast
Understanding greenhouse gas (GHG) column concentrations in Munich using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Impact of transport model resolution and a priori assumptions on inverse modeling of Swiss F-gas emissions
Estimation of power plant SO2 emissions using the HYSPLIT dispersion model and airborne observations with plume rise ensemble runs
Can we use atmospheric CO2 measurements to verify emission trends reported by cities? Lessons from a 6-year atmospheric inversion over Paris
A new steady-state gas–particle partitioning model of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: implication for the influence of the particulate proportion in emissions
An analysis of CMAQ gas-phase dry deposition over North America through grid-scale and land-use-specific diagnostics in the context of AQMEII4
Rethinking the role of transport and photochemistry in regional ozone pollution: insights from ozone concentration and mass budgets
Decreasing seasonal cycle amplitude of methane in the northern high latitudes being driven by lower-latitude changes in emissions and transport
The effect of anthropogenic emission, meteorological factors, and carbon dioxide on the surface ozone increase in China from 2008 to 2018 during the East Asia summer monsoon season
Development of a CMAQ–PMF-based composite index for prescribing an effective ozone abatement strategy: a case study of sensitivity of surface ozone to precursor volatile organic compound species in southern Taiwan
Comment on “Climate consequences of hydrogen emissions” by Ocko and Hamburg (2022)
Constraining emissions of volatile organic compounds from western US wildfires with WE-CAN and FIREX-AQ airborne observations
Satellite quantification of methane emissions and oil–gas methane intensities from individual countries in the Middle East and North Africa: implications for climate action
Coupled mesoscale–microscale modeling of air quality in a polluted city using WRF-LES-Chem
Impact of aerosol optics on vertical distribution of ozone in autumn over Yangtze River Delta
A view of the European carbon flux landscape through the lens of the ICOS atmospheric observation network
Technical note: The CAMS greenhouse gas reanalysis from 2003 to 2020
Evaluation of simulated CO2 power plant plumes from six high-resolution atmospheric transport models
Impacts of urbanization on air quality and the related health risks in a city with complex terrain
Optimizing 4 years of CO2 biospheric fluxes from OCO-2 and in situ data in TM5: fire emissions from GFED and inferred from MOPITT CO data
Development and application of a multi-scale modeling framework for urban high-resolution NO2 pollution mapping
Towards monitoring the CO2 source–sink distribution over India via inverse modelling: quantifying the fine-scale spatiotemporal variability in the atmospheric CO2 mole fraction
Methane emissions from China: a high-resolution inversion of TROPOMI satellite observations
Sepehr Fathi, Paul Makar, Wanmin Gong, Junhua Zhang, Katherine Hayden, and Mark Gordon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2385–2405, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2385-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2385-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores the influence of water phase changes in plumes from industrial sources on atmospheric dispersion of emitted pollutants and air quality. Employing PRISM (Plume-Rise-Iterative-Stratified-Moist), a new method, we found that considering these effects significantly improves predictions of pollutant dispersion. This insight enhances our understanding of environmental impacts, enabling more accurate air quality modelling and fostering more effective pollution management strategies.
Maria K. Tenkanen, Aki Tsuruta, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Maarit Raivonen, Hermanni Aaltonen, and Tuula Aalto
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2181–2206, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2181-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate national methane (CH4) emission estimates are essential for tracking progress towards climate goals. This study compares estimates from Finland, which use different methods and scales, and shows how well a global model estimates emissions within a country. The bottom-up estimates vary a lot, but constraining them with atmospheric CH4 measurements brought the estimates closer together. We also highlight the importance of quantifying natural emissions alongside anthropogenic emissions.
Xingyu Wang, Fei Jiang, Hengmao Wang, Zhengqi Zhang, Mousong Wu, Jun Wang, Wei He, Weimin Ju, and Jing M. Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 867–880, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-867-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-867-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The role of OCO-3 XCO2 retrievals in estimating global terrestrial carbon fluxes is unclear. We investigate this by assimilating OCO-3 XCO2 retrievals alone and in combination with OCO-2 XCO2. The assimilation of OCO-3 XCO2 alone underestimates global land sinks, mainly at high latitudes, due to the lack of observations beyond 52° S and 52° N, large variations in the number of data, and varying observation times, while the joint assimilation of OCO-2 and OCO-3 XCO2 has the best performance.
Beata Bukosa, Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher, Gordon Brailsford, Dan Smale, Elizabeth D. Keller, W. Troy Baisden, Miko U. F. Kirschbaum, Donna L. Giltrap, Lìyı̌n Liáng, Stuart Moore, Rowena Moss, Sylvia Nichol, Jocelyn Turnbull, Alex Geddes, Daemon Kennett, Dora Hidy, Zoltán Barcza, Louis A. Schipper, Aaron M. Wall, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Hitoshi Mukai, and Andrea Brandon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3866, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used atmospheric measurements and inverse modeling to estimate New Zealand's carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and removals from 2011 to 2020. Our study reveals that New Zealand's land absorbs more CO₂ than previously estimated, particularly in areas dominated by indigenous forests. Our results highlight gaps in current national CO₂ estimates and methods, suggesting a need for further research to improve emissions reporting and refine approaches to track progress toward climate mitigation goals.
Zhou Zang, Jane Liu, David Tarasick, Omid Moeini, Jianchun Bian, Jinqiang Zhang, Anne M. Thompson, Roeland Van Malderen, Herman G. J. Smit, Ryan M. Stauffer, Bryan J. Johnson, and Debra E. Kollonige
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13889–13912, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13889-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13889-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Trajectory-mapped Ozonesonde dataset for the Stratosphere and Troposphere (TOST) provides a global-scale, long-term ozone climatology that is horizontally and vertically resolved. In this study, we improved, updated and validated TOST from 1970 to 2021. Based on this TOST dataset, we characterized global ozone variations spatially in both the troposphere and stratosphere and temporally by season and decade. We also showed a stagnant lower stratospheric ozone variation since the late 1990s.
Zhenda Sun, Hao Yin, Zhongfeng Pan, Chongyang Li, Xiao Lu, Youwen Sun, and Cheng Liu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3252, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the variability and driving force of transboundary transport flux of carbon monoxide (CO) over the Tibetan Plateau from May 2018 to April 2024. We discovered that CO levels peak in late autumn and winter, driven mainly by external influx from South Asia, while internal emissions have decreased slightly. The findings reveal a growing trend in CO concentrations in the region, emphasizing the Tibetan Plateau's role as a significant receptor for transboundary pollutants.
Kai Meng, Tianliang Zhao, Yongqing Bai, Ming Wu, Le Cao, Xuewei Hou, Yuehan Luo, and Yongcheng Jiang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12623–12642, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12623-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12623-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the impact of stratospheric intrusions (SIs) on tropospheric and near-surface ozone in Central and Eastern China from a stratospheric source tracing perspective. SIs contribute the most in the eastern plains, with a contribution exceeding 15 %, and have a small contribution to the west and south. Western Siberia and Mongolia are the most critical source areas for indirect and direct SIs, with the Rossby wave and northeast cold vortex being important driving circulation systems.
Michael Steiner, Luca Cantarello, Stephan Henne, and Dominik Brunner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12447–12463, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12447-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12447-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric greenhouse gas inversions have great potential to independently check reported bottom-up emissions; however they are subject to large uncertainties. It is paramount to address and reduce the largest source of uncertainty, which stems from the representation of atmospheric transport in the models. In this study, we show that the use of a temporally varying flow-dependent atmospheric transport uncertainty can enhance the accuracy of emission estimation in an idealized experiment.
Cynthia D. Nevison, Qing Liang, Paul A. Newman, Britton B. Stephens, Geoff Dutton, Xin Lan, Roisin Commane, Yenny Gonzalez, and Eric Kort
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10513–10529, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the drivers of interannual variability in tropospheric N2O. New insights are obtained from aircraft data and a chemistry–climate model that explicitly simulates stratospheric N2O. The stratosphere is found to be the dominant driver of N2O variability in the Northern Hemisphere, while both the stratosphere and El Niño cycles are important in the Southern Hemisphere. These results are consistent with known atmospheric dynamics and differences between the hemispheres.
Misa Ishizawa, Douglas Chan, Doug Worthy, Elton Chan, Felix Vogel, Joe R. Melton, and Vivek K. Arora
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10013–10038, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10013-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10013-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) emissions in Canada for 2007–2017 were estimated using Canada’s surface greenhouse gas measurements. The estimated emissions show no significant trend, but emission uncertainty was reduced as more measurement sites became available. Notably for climate change, we find the wetland CH4 emissions show a positive correlation with surface air temperature in summer. Canada’s measurement network could monitor future CH4 emission changes and compliance with climate change mitigation goals.
Yiang Chen, Xingcheng Lu, and Jimmy C. H. Fung
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8847–8864, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8847-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the contribution of pollutants from different emitting periods to ozone episodes over the Greater Bay Area. The analysis reveals the variation in major spatiotemporal contributors to the O3 pollution under the influence of typhoons and subtropical high pressure. Through temporal contribution analysis, our work offers a new perspective on the evolution of O3 pollution and can aid in developing effective and timely control policies under unfavorable weather conditions.
Fabian Maier, Christian Rödenbeck, Ingeborg Levin, Christoph Gerbig, Maksym Gachkivskyi, and Samuel Hammer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8183–8203, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8183-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8183-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the usage of discrete radiocarbon (14C)-based fossil fuel carbon dioxide (ffCO2) concentration estimates vs. continuous carbon monoxide (CO)-based ffCO2 estimates to evaluate the seasonal cycle of ffCO2 emissions in an urban region with an inverse modeling framework. We find that the CO-based ffCO2 estimates allow us to reconstruct robust seasonal cycles, which show the distinct COVID-19 drawdown in 2020 and can be used to validate emission inventories.
Santiago Botía, Saqr Munassar, Thomas Koch, Danilo Custodio, Luana S. Basso, Shujiro Komiya, Jost V. Lavric, David Walter, Manuel Gloor, Giordane Martins, Stijn Naus, Gerbrand Koren, Ingrid Luijkx, Stijn Hantson, John B. Miller, Wouter Peters, Christian Rödenbeck, and Christoph Gerbig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1735, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses CO2 data from the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory and airborne profiles to estimate net carbon exchange. We found that the biogeographic Amazon is a net carbon sink, while the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes are net carbon sources, resulting in an overall neutral balance. To further reduce the uncertainty in our estimates we call for an expansion of the monitoring capacity, especially in the Amazon-Andes foothills.
Kevin Oliveira, Marc Guevara, Oriol Jorba, Hervé Petetin, Dene Bowdalo, Carles Tena, Gilbert Montané Pinto, Franco López, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7137–7177, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7137-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7137-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we assess and evaluate benzene, toluene, and xylene primary emissions and air quality levels in Spain by combining observations, emission inventories, and air quality modelling techniques. The comparison between modelled and observed levels allows identifying uncertainty sources within the emission input. This contributes to improving air quality models' performance when simulating these compounds, leading to better support for the design of effective pollution control strategies.
Yuehan Luo, Tianliang Zhao, Kai Meng, Jun Hu, Qingjian Yang, Yongqing Bai, Kai Yang, Weikang Fu, Chenghao Tan, Yifan Zhang, Yanzhe Zhang, and Zhikuan Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7013–7026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7013-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7013-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We reveal a significant mechanism of stratospheric O3 intrusion (SI) into the atmospheric environment induced by an extratropical cyclone system. This system facilitates the downward transport of stratospheric O3 to the near-surface layer by vertical coupling, involving the upper westerly trough, the middle northeast cold vortex, and the lower extratropical cyclone in the troposphere. On average, stratospheric O3 contributed 26.77 % to near-surface O3 levels over the North China Plain.
Cheng Zheng, Yutian Wu, Mingfang Ting, and Clara Orbe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6965–6985, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6965-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6965-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Trace gases and aerosols in the Arctic, which typically originate from midlatitude and tropical emission regions, modulate the Arctic climate via their radiative and chemistry impacts. Thus, long-range transport of these substances is important for understanding the current and the future change of Arctic climate. By employing chemistry–climate models, we explore how year-to-year variations in the atmospheric circulation modulate atmospheric long-range transport into the Arctic.
Sophie Wittig, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Marielle Saunois, and Jean-Daniel Paris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6359–6373, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6359-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this work is to analyse how accurately a methane bomb event could be detected with the current and a hypothetically extended stationary observation network in the Arctic. For this, we incorporate synthetically modelled possible future CH4 concentrations based on plausible emission scenarios into an inverse modelling framework. We analyse how well the increase is detected in different Arctic regions and evaluate the impact of additional observation sites in this respect.
Vishnu Thilakan, Dhanyalekshmi Pillai, Jithin Sukumaran, Christoph Gerbig, Haseeb Hakkim, Vinayak Sinha, Yukio Terao, Manish Naja, and Monish Vijay Deshpande
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5315–5335, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the usability of CO2 mixing ratio observations over India to infer regional carbon sources and sinks. We demonstrate that a high-resolution modelling system can represent the observed CO2 variations reasonably well by improving the transport and flux variations at a fine scale. Future carbon data assimilation systems can thus benefit from these recently available CO2 observations when fine-scale variations are adequately represented in the models.
Rostislav Kouznetsov, Risto Hänninen, Andreas Uppstu, Evgeny Kadantsev, Yalda Fatahi, Marje Prank, Dmitrii Kouznetsov, Steffen Manfred Noe, Heikki Junninen, and Mikhail Sofiev
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4675–4691, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4675-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4675-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By relying solely on publicly available media reports, we were able to infer the temporal evolution and the injection height for the Nord Stream gas leaks in September 2022. The inventory specifies locations, vertical distributions, and temporal evolution of the methane sources. The inventory can be used to simulate the event with atmospheric transport models. The inventory is supplemented with a set of observational data tailored to evaluate the results of the simulated atmospheric dispersion.
Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Camille Huselstein, Clément Narbaud, Marine Remaud, Sauveur Belviso, Camille Abadie, and Fabienne Maignan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-549, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-549, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use the measurements of atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (COS) concentrations at the monitoring site of Gif-sur-Yvette (in the Paris area) from August 2014 to December 2019, combined with existing knowledge on COS fluxes in the atmosphere and and transport model to gain insight on COS fluxes, either natural such as the oceanic emissions or the vegetation and soil fluxes, or anthropogenic, from industrial activities and power generation.
Michael Steiner, Wouter Peters, Ingrid Luijkx, Stephan Henne, Huilin Chen, Samuel Hammer, and Dominik Brunner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2759–2782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2759-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Paris Agreement increased interest in estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of individual countries, but top-down emission estimation is not yet considered policy-relevant. It is therefore paramount to reduce large errors and to build systems that are based on the newest atmospheric transport models. In this study, we present the first application of ICON-ART in the inverse modeling of GHG fluxes with an ensemble Kalman filter and present our results for European CH4 emissions.
Nan Wang, Hongyue Wang, Xin Huang, Xi Chen, Yu Zou, Tao Deng, Tingyuan Li, Xiaopu Lyu, and Fumo Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1559–1570, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the influence of extreme-weather-induced natural processes on ozone pollution, which is often overlooked. By analyzing meteorological factors, natural emissions, chemistry pathways and atmospheric transport, we discovered that these natural processes could substantially exacerbate ozone pollution. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of ozone pollution and offer valuable insights for controlling ozone pollution in the context of global warming.
Jia Mao, Amos P. K. Tai, David H. Y. Yung, Tiangang Yuan, Kong T. Chau, and Zhaozhong Feng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 345–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-345-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-345-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Surface ozone (O3) is well-known for posing great threats to both human health and agriculture worldwide. However, a multidecadal assessment of the impacts of O3 on public health and agriculture in China is lacking without sufficient O3 observations. We used a hybrid approach combining a chemical transport model and machine learning to provide a robust dataset of O3 concentrations over the past 4 decades in China, thereby filling the gap in the long-term O3 trend and impact assessment in China.
Leon Kuhn, Steffen Beirle, Vinod Kumar, Sergey Osipov, Andrea Pozzer, Tim Bösch, Rajesh Kumar, and Thomas Wagner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 185–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-185-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
NO₂ is an important air pollutant. It was observed that the WRF-Chem model shows significant deviations in NO₂ abundance when compared to measurements. We use a 1-month simulation over central Europe to show that these deviations can be mostly resolved by reparameterization of the vertical mixing routine. In order to validate our results, they are compared to in situ, satellite, and MAX-DOAS measurements.
Ondřej Tichý, Sabine Eckhardt, Yves Balkanski, Didier Hauglustaine, and Nikolaos Evangeliou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15235–15252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We show declining trends in NH3 emissions over Europe for 2013–2020 using advanced dispersion and inverse modelling and satellite measurements from CrIS. Emissions decreased by −26% since 2013, showing that the abatement strategies adopted by the European Union have been very efficient. Ammonia emissions are low in winter and peak in summer due to temperature-dependent soil volatilization. The largest decreases were observed in central and western Europe in countries with high emissions.
Yusuf A. Bhatti, Laura E. Revell, Alex J. Schuddeboom, Adrian J. McDonald, Alex T. Archibald, Jonny Williams, Abhijith U. Venugopal, Catherine Hardacre, and Erik Behrens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15181–15196, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15181-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15181-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are a large source of uncertainty over the Southern Ocean. A dominant source of sulfate aerosol in this region is dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which is poorly simulated by climate models. We show the sensitivity of simulated atmospheric DMS to the choice of oceanic DMS data set and emission scheme. We show that oceanic DMS has twice the influence on atmospheric DMS than the emission scheme. Simulating DMS more accurately in climate models will help to constrain aerosol uncertainty.
Maryam Golbazi and Cristina Archer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15057–15075, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15057-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15057-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use scientific models to study the impact of ship emissions on air quality along the US East Coast. We find an increase in three major pollutants (PM2.5, NO2, and SO2) in coastal regions. However, we detect a reduction in ozone (O3) levels in major coastal cities. This reduction is linked to the significant emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from ships, which scavenged O3, especially in highly polluted urban areas experiencing an NOx-limited regime.
Xinxu Zhao, Jia Chen, Julia Marshall, Michal Gałkowski, Stephan Hachinger, Florian Dietrich, Ankit Shekhar, Johannes Gensheimer, Adrian Wenzel, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14325–14347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14325-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14325-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a modeling framework using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a high spatial resolution (up to 400 m) to simulate atmospheric transport of greenhouse gases and interpret column observations. Output is validated against weather stations and column measurements in August 2018. The differential column method is applied, aided by air-mass transport tracing with the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model, also for an exploratory measurement interpretation.
Ioannis Katharopoulos, Dominique Rust, Martin K. Vollmer, Dominik Brunner, Stefan Reimann, Simon J. O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Kieran M. Stanley, Tanja Schuck, Jgor Arduini, Lukas Emmenegger, and Stephan Henne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14159–14186, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14159-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14159-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effectiveness of climate change mitigation needs to be scrutinized by monitoring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Countries report their emissions to the UN in a bottom-up manner. By combining atmospheric observations and transport models someone can independently validate emission estimates in a top-down fashion. We report Swiss emissions of synthetic GHGs based on kilometer-scale transport and inverse modeling, highlighting the role of appropriate resolution in complex terrain.
Tianfeng Chai, Xinrong Ren, Fong Ngan, Mark Cohen, and Alice Crawford
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12907–12933, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12907-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12907-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The SO2 emissions of three power plants are estimated using aircraft observations and an ensemble of HYSPLIT dispersion simulations with different plume rise parameters. The emission estimates using the runs with the lowest root mean square errors (RMSEs) and the runs with the best correlation coefficients between the predicted and observed mixing ratios both agree well with the Continuous Emissions Monitoring Systems (CEMS) data. The RMSE-based plume rise appears to be more reasonable.
Jinghui Lian, Thomas Lauvaux, Hervé Utard, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Michel Ramonet, Olivier Laurent, Ivonne Albarus, Mali Chariot, Simone Kotthaus, Martial Haeffelin, Olivier Sanchez, Olivier Perrussel, Hugo Anne Denier van der Gon, Stijn Nicolaas Camiel Dellaert, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8823–8835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study quantifies urban CO2 emissions via an atmospheric inversion for the Paris metropolitan area over a 6-year period from 2016 to 2021. Results show a long-term decreasing trend of about 2 % ± 0.6 % per year in the annual CO2 emissions over Paris. We conclude that our current capacity can deliver near-real-time CO2 emission estimates at the city scale in under a month, and the results agree within 10 % with independent estimates from multiple city-scale inventories.
Fu-Jie Zhu, Peng-Tuan Hu, and Wan-Li Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8583–8590, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8583-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8583-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new steady-state gas–particle partitioning model of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons was established based on the level-III multimedia fugacity model, which proved that the particulate proportion of PAHs in emissions was a crucial factor for G–P partitioning of PAHs. In addition, gaseous and particulate interference was also derived in the new steady-state model determined by the particulate proportion in emission that could derivate the G–P partitioning quotients from the equilibrium state.
Christian Hogrefe, Jesse O. Bash, Jonathan E. Pleim, Donna B. Schwede, Robert C. Gilliam, Kristen M. Foley, K. Wyat Appel, and Rohit Mathur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8119–8147, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8119-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8119-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Under the umbrella of the fourth phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4), this study applies AQMEII4 diagnostic tools to better characterize how dry deposition removes pollutants from the atmosphere in the widely used CMAQ model. The results illustrate how these tools can provide insights into similarities and differences between the two CMAQ dry deposition options that affect simulated pollutant budgets and ecosystem impacts from atmospheric pollution.
Kun Qu, Xuesong Wang, Xuhui Cai, Yu Yan, Xipeng Jin, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Maria Kanakidou, Guy P. Brasseur, Jin Shen, Teng Xiao, Limin Zeng, and Yuanhang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7653–7671, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7653-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Basic understandings of ozone processes, especially transport and chemistry, are essential to support ozone pollution control, but studies often have different views on their relative importance. We developed a method to quantify their contributions in the ozone mass and concentration budgets based on the WRF-CMAQ model. Results in a polluted region highlight the differences between two budgets. For future studies, two budgets are both needed to fully understand the effects of ozone processes.
Emily Dowd, Chris Wilson, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Emanuel Gloor, Alistair Manning, and Ruth Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7363–7382, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7363-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7363-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Surface observations of methane show that the seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) of methane is decreasing in the northern high latitudes (NHLs) but increased globally (1995–2020). The NHL decrease is counterintuitive, as we expect the SCA to increase with increasing concentrations. We use a chemical transport model to investigate changes in SCA in the NHLs. We find well-mixed methane and changes in emissions from Canada, the Middle East, and Europe are the largest contributors to the SCA in NHLs.
Danyang Ma, Tijian Wang, Hao Wu, Yawei Qu, Jian Liu, Jane Liu, Shu Li, Bingliang Zhuang, Mengmeng Li, and Min Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6525–6544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing surface ozone (O3) concentrations have long been a significant environmental issue in China, despite the Clean Air Action Plan launched in 2013. Most previous research ignores the contributions of CO2 variations. Our study comprehensively analyzed O3 variation across China from various perspectives and highlighted the importance of considering CO2 variations when designing long-term O3 control policies, especially in high-vegetation-coverage areas.
Jackson Hian-Wui Chang, Stephen M. Griffith, Steven Soon-Kai Kong, Ming-Tung Chuang, and Neng-Huei Lin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6357–6382, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6357-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A novel CMAQ–PMF-based composite index is developed to identify the key VOC source species for an effective ozone abatement strategy. The index provides information as to which VOC species are key to ozone formation and where to reduce sources of these VOC species. Using the composite index, we recommended the VOC control measures in southern Taiwan should prioritize solvent usage, vehicle emissions, and the petrochemical industry.
Lei Duan and Ken Caldeira
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6011–6020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6011-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6011-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocko and Hamburg (2022) emphasize the short-term climate impact of hydrogen, and we present an analysis that places greater focus on long-term outcomes. We have derived equations that describe the time-evolving impact of hydrogen and show that higher methane leakage is primarily responsible for the warming potential of blue hydrogen, while hydrogen leakage plays a less critical role. Fossil fuels show more prominent longer-term climate impacts than clean hydrogen under all emission scenarios.
Lixu Jin, Wade Permar, Vanessa Selimovic, Damien Ketcherside, Robert J. Yokelson, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, Eric C. Apel, I-Ting Ku, Jeffrey L. Collett Jr., Amy P. Sullivan, Daniel A. Jaffe, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Alan Fried, Matthew M. Coggon, Georgios I. Gkatzelis, Carsten Warneke, Emily V. Fischer, and Lu Hu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5969–5991, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5969-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5969-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Air quality in the USA has been improving since 1970 due to anthropogenic emission reduction. Those gains have been partly offset by increased wildfire pollution in the western USA in the past 20 years. Still, we do not understand wildfire emissions well due to limited measurements. Here, we used a global transport model to evaluate and constrain current knowledge of wildfire emissions with recent observational constraints, showing the underestimation of wildfire emissions in the western USA.
Zichong Chen, Daniel J. Jacob, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Robert N. Stavins, Robert C. Stowe, Hannah Nesser, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Alba Lorente, Daniel J. Varon, Xiao Lu, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Drew C. Pendergrass, and Sarah Hancock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5945–5967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5945-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify methane emissions from individual countries in the Middle East and North Africa by inverse analysis of 2019 TROPOMI satellite observations of atmospheric methane. We show that the ability to simply relate oil/gas emissions to activity metrics is compromised by stochastic nature of local infrastructure and management practices. We find that the industry target for oil/gas methane intensity is achievable through associated gas capture, modern infrastructure, and centralized operations.
Yuting Wang, Yong-Feng Ma, Domingo Muñoz-Esparza, Jianing Dai, Cathy Wing Yi Li, Pablo Lichtig, Roy Chun-Wang Tsang, Chun-Ho Liu, Tao Wang, and Guy Pierre Brasseur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5905–5927, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5905-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5905-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Air quality in urban areas is difficult to simulate in coarse-resolution models. This work exploits the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model coupled with a large-eddy simulation (LES) component and online chemistry to perform high-resolution (33.3 m) simulations of air quality in a large city. The evaluation of the simulations with observations shows that increased model resolution improves the representation of the chemical species near the pollution sources.
Shuqi Yan, Bin Zhu, Shuangshuang Shi, Wen Lu, Jinhui Gao, Hanqing Kang, and Duanyang Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5177–5190, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5177-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze ozone response to aerosol mixing states in the vertical direction by WRF-Chem simulations. Aerosols generally lead to turbulent suppression, precursor accumulation, low-level photolysis reduction, and upper-level photolysis enhancement under different underlying surface and pollution conditions. Thus, ozone decreases within the entire boundary layer during the daytime, and the decrease is the least in aerosol external mixing states compared to internal and core shell mixing states.
Ida Storm, Ute Karstens, Claudio D'Onofrio, Alex Vermeulen, and Wouter Peters
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4993–5008, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4993-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4993-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we evaluate what is in the influence regions of the ICOS atmospheric measurement stations to gain insight into what land cover types and land-cover-associated fluxes the network represents. Subsequently, insights about strengths, weaknesses, and potential gaps can assist in future network expansion decisions. The network is concentrated in central Europe, which leads to a general overrepresentation of coniferous forest and cropland and underrepresentation of grass and shrubland.
Anna Agustí-Panareda, Jérôme Barré, Sébastien Massart, Antje Inness, Ilse Aben, Melanie Ades, Bianca C. Baier, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Tobias Borsdorff, Nicolas Bousserez, Souhail Boussetta, Michael Buchwitz, Luca Cantarello, Cyril Crevoisier, Richard Engelen, Henk Eskes, Johannes Flemming, Sébastien Garrigues, Otto Hasekamp, Vincent Huijnen, Luke Jones, Zak Kipling, Bavo Langerock, Joe McNorton, Nicolas Meilhac, Stefan Noël, Mark Parrington, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Michel Ramonet, Miha Razinger, Maximilian Reuter, Roberto Ribas, Martin Suttie, Colm Sweeney, Jérôme Tarniewicz, and Lianghai Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3829–3859, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3829-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3829-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global dataset of atmospheric CO2 and CH4, the two most important human-made greenhouse gases, which covers almost 2 decades (2003–2020). It is produced by combining satellite data of CO2 and CH4 with a weather and air composition prediction model, and it has been carefully evaluated against independent observations to ensure validity and point out deficiencies to the user. This dataset can be used for scientific studies in the field of climate change and the global carbon cycle.
Dominik Brunner, Gerrit Kuhlmann, Stephan Henne, Erik Koene, Bastian Kern, Sebastian Wolff, Christiane Voigt, Patrick Jöckel, Christoph Kiemle, Anke Roiger, Alina Fiehn, Sven Krautwurst, Konstantin Gerilowski, Heinrich Bovensmann, Jakob Borchardt, Michal Galkowski, Christoph Gerbig, Julia Marshall, Andrzej Klonecki, Pascal Prunet, Robert Hanfland, Margit Pattantyús-Ábrahám, Andrzej Wyszogrodzki, and Andreas Fix
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2699–2728, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated six atmospheric transport models for their capability to simulate the CO2 plumes from two of the largest power plants in Europe by comparing the models against aircraft observations collected during the CoMet (Carbon Dioxide and Methane Mission) campaign in 2018. The study analyzed how realistically such plumes can be simulated at different model resolutions and how well the planned European satellite mission CO2M will be able to quantify emissions from power plants.
Chenchao Zhan, Min Xie, Hua Lu, Bojun Liu, Zheng Wu, Tijian Wang, Bingliang Zhuang, Mengmeng Li, and Shu Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 771–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
With the development of urbanization, urban land use and anthropogenic
emissions increase, affecting urban air quality and, in turn, the health risks associated with air pollutants. In this study, we systematically evaluate the impacts of urbanization on air quality and the corresponding health risks in a highly urbanized city with severe air pollution and complex terrain. This work focuses on the health risks caused by urbanization and can provide valuable insight for air pollution strategies.
Hélène Peiro, Sean Crowell, and Berrien Moore III
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15817–15849, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15817-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15817-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
CO data can provide a powerful constraint on fire fluxes, supporting more accurate estimation of biospheric CO2 fluxes. We converted CO fire flux into CO2 fire prior, which is then used to adjust CO2 respiration. We applied this to two other fire flux products. CO2 inversions constrained by satellites or in situ data are then performed. Results show larger variations among the data assimilated than across the priors, but tropical flux from in situ inversions is sensitive to priors.
Zhaofeng Lv, Zhenyu Luo, Fanyuan Deng, Xiaotong Wang, Junchao Zhao, Lucheng Xu, Tingkun He, Yingzhi Zhang, Huan Liu, and Kebin He
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15685–15702, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15685-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a hybrid model, CMAQ-RLINE_URBAN, to predict the urban NO2 concentrations at a high spatial resolution. To estimate the influence of various street canyons on the dispersion of air pollutants, a new parameterization scheme was established based on computational fluid dynamics and machine learning methods. This work created a new method to identify the characteristics of vehicle-related air pollution at both city and street scales simultaneously and accurately.
Vishnu Thilakan, Dhanyalekshmi Pillai, Christoph Gerbig, Michal Galkowski, Aparnna Ravi, and Thara Anna Mathew
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15287–15312, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15287-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper demonstrates how we can use atmospheric observations to improve the CO2 flux estimates in India. This is achieved by improving the representation of terrain, mesoscale transport, and flux variations. We quantify the impact of the unresolved variations in the current models on optimally estimated fluxes via inverse modelling and quantify the associated flux uncertainty. We illustrate how a parameterization scheme captures this variability in the coarse models.
Zichong Chen, Daniel J. Jacob, Hannah Nesser, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Alba Lorente, Daniel J. Varon, Xiao Lu, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Elise Penn, and Xueying Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10809–10826, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10809-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10809-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify methane emissions in China and contributions from different sectors by inverse analysis of 2019 TROPOMI satellite observations of atmospheric methane. We find that anthropogenic methane emissions for China are underestimated in the national inventory. Our estimate of emissions indicates a small life-cycle loss rate, implying net climate benefits from the current
coal-to-gasenergy transition in China. However, this small loss rate can be misleading given China's high gas imports.
Cited articles
Ackerman, K. V. and Sundquist, E. T.: Comparison of two US power-plant carbon dioxide emissions data sets, Environ. Sci. Technol., 42, 5688–5693, 2008.
Baisden,,W. T., Prior, C. A., Chambers, D., Canessa, S., Phillips, A., Bertrand, C., Zondervan, A., and Turnbull, J. C.: Radiocarbon sample preparation and data flow at Rafter: accommodating enhanced throughput and precision, Nucl. Instrum. Meth. B, 294, 194–198, 2013.
Boden, T. A., Marland, G., and Andres, R. J.: Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., USA, https://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2015, 2015.
Bonifacio, H. F., Maghirang, R. G., Razote, E. B., Trabue, S. L., and Prueger, J. H.: Comparison of AERMOD and WindTrax dispersion models in determining PM10 emission rates from a beef cattle feedlot, J. Air Waste Manage., 63, 545–556, 2013.
Bozhinova, D., Combe, M., Palstra, S. W. L., Meijer, H. A. J., Krol, M. C., and Peters, W.: The importance of crop growth modeling to interpret the Δ14CO2 signature of annual plants, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 27, 792–803, 2013.
Brioude, J., Angevine, W. M., Ahmadov, R., Kim, S.-W., Evan, S., McKeen, S. A., Hsie, E.-Y., Frost, G. J., Neuman, J. A., Pollack, I. B., Peischl, J., Ryerson, T. B., Holloway, J., Brown, S. S., Nowak, J. B., Roberts, J. M., Wofsy, S. C., Santoni, G. W., Oda, T., and Trainer, M.: Top-down estimate of surface flux in the Los Angeles Basin using a mesoscale inverse modeling technique: assessing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NOx and CO2 and their impacts, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3661–3677, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3661-2013, 2013.
CARMA: Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA) Database, available at: http://www.carma.org (last access: 28 April 2016), 2009.
Cimorelli, A. J., Perry, S. G., Venkatram, A., Weil, J. C., Paine, R. J., Wilson, R. B., Lee, R. F., Peters, W. D., and Brode, R. W.: AERMOD: A Dispersion Model for Industrial Source Applications. Part I: General Model Formulation and Boundary Layer Characterization, J. Appl. Meteor., 44, 682–693, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2227.1, 2005.
CliFlo: NIWA's National Climate Database on the Web, available at: http://cliflo.niwa.co.nz/, last access: 4 November 2014.
Currie, K. I., Brailsford, G., Nichol, S., Gomez, A., Sparks, R., Lassey, K. R., and Riedel, K.: Tropospheric 14CO2 at Wellington, New Zealand: the world's longest record, Biogeochemistry, 104, 5–22, 2011.
Djuricin, S., Xu. X., and Pataki, D.E.: The radiocarbon composition of tree rings as a tracer of local fossil fuel emissions in the Los Angeles basin: 1980–2008, J. Geophys. Res-Atmos., 117, D12303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017284, 2012.
Donders, T. H., Decuyper, M., Beaubien, S. E., van Hoof, T. B., Cherubini, P., and Sass-Klaassen, U.: Tree rings as biosensor to detect leakage of subsurface fossil CO2, Int. J. Greenh. Gas Con., 19, 387–395, 2013.
eGRID: Technical Support Document for the 9th Edition of eGRID with Year 2010 Data (Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database), Washington, D.C., USA, 2014.
Flesch, T. K., Wilson, J. D., Harper, L., Crenna, B., and Sharpe, R.: Deducing ground-to-air emissions from observed trace gas concentrations: a field trial, J. Appl. Meteorol., 43, 487–502, 2004.
Flesch, T. K., Wilson, J. D., Harper, L., and Crenna, B: Estimating gas emissions from a farm with an inverse-dispersion technique, Atmos. Environ., 39, 4863–4874, 2005.
Gao, Z., Mauder, M., Desjardins, R. L., Flesch, T. K., and van Haarlem, R. P.: Assessment of the backward Lagrangian stochastic dispersion technique for continuous measurements of CH4 emissions, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 149, 1516–1523, 2009.
Geels, C., Gloor, M., Ciais, P., Bousquet, P., Peylin, P., Vermeulen, A. T., Dargaville, R., Aalto, T., Brandt, J., Christensen, J. H., Frohn, L. M., Haszpra, L., Karstens, U., Rödenbeck, C., Ramonet, M., Carboni, G., and Santaguida, R.: Comparing atmospheric transport models for future regional inversions over Europe – Part 1: mapping the atmospheric CO2 signals, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 3461–3479, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-3461-2007, 2007.
Gerbig, C., Körner, S., and Lin, J. C.: Vertical mixing in atmospheric tracer transport models: error characterization and propagation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 591–602, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-591-2008, 2008.
Grell, G. A., Peckham, S. E., Schmitz, R., McKeen, S. A., Frost, G., Skamarock, W. C., and Eder, B.: Fully coupled “online” chemistry within the WRF model, Atmos. Environ., 39, 6957–6975, 2005.
Gurney, K. R.: Beyond Hammers and Nails: Mitigating and Verifying Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Eos Trans. AGU, 94, 199, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013EO220003, 2013.
Gurney, K. R., Mendoza, D. L., Zhou, Y., Fischer, M. L., Miller, C. C., Geethakumar, S., and de la Rue du Can, S.: High resolution fossil fuel combustion CO2 emission fluxes for the United States, Environ. Sci. Technol., 43, 5535–5541, 2009.
Gurney, K. R., Razlivanov, I., Song, Y., Zhou, Y., Benes, B., and Abdul-Massih, M.: Quantification of fossil fuel CO2 emissions on the building/street scale for a large US City, Environ. Sci. Technol., 46, 12194–12202, 2012.
Hua, Q., Barbetti, M., Jacobsen, G. E., Zoppi, U., and Lawson, E. M.: Bomb radiocarbon in annual tree rings from Thailand and Australia, Nucl. Instrum. Meth. B, 172, 359–365, 2000.
Karlen, I., Olsson, I. U., Kllburg, P., and Kilici, S.: Absolute determination of the activity of two 14C dating standards, Arkiv Geofysik, 4, 465–471, 1968.
Koehn, A. C., Leytem, A. B., and Bjorneberg, D. L.: Comparison of atmospheric stability methods for calculating ammonia and methane emission rates with WindTrax, Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, 56, 763–768, 2013.
Kretschmer, R., Gerbig, C., Karstens, U., and Koch, F.-T.: Error characterization of CO2 vertical mixing in the atmospheric transport model WRF-VPRM, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 2441–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-2441-2012, 2012.
Laubach, J.: Testing of a Lagrangian model of dispersion in the surface layer with cattle methane emissions, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 150, 1428–1442, 2010.
Laubach, J. and Kelliher, F. M.: Methane emissions from dairy cows: Comparing open-path laser measurements to profile-based techniques, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 135, 340–345, 2005.
Legendre, P.: lmodel2: Model II Regression, R package version 1.7-2, available at: http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=lmodel2 (last access: 28 April 2016), 2014.
Leuning, R., Etheridge, D., Luhar, A., and Dunse, B.: Atmospheric monitoring and verification technologies for CO2 geosequestration, Int. J. Greenh. Gas Con., 2, 401–414, 2008.
Levin, I. and Rödenbeck, C.: Can the envisaged reductions of fossil fuel CO2 emissions be detected by atmospheric observations?, Naturwissenschaften, 95, 203–208, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00114-007-0313-4, 2007.
Levin, I., Kromer, B., Schmidt, M., and Sartorius, H.: A novel approach for independent budgeting of fossil fuel CO2 over Europe by 14CO2 observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2194, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018477, 2003.
Lin, J. C. and Gerbig, C.: Accounting for the effect of transport errors on tracer inversions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L01802, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021127, 2005.
Lindenmaier, R., Dubey, M. K., Henderson, B. G., Butterfield, Z. T., Herman, J. R., Rahn, T., and Lee, S. H.: Multiscale observations of CO2, 13CO2, and pollutants at Four Corners for emission verification and attribution, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 8386–8391, 2014.
Liu, J., Fung, I., Kalnay, E., and Kang, J.-S.: CO2 transport uncertainties from the uncertainties in meteorological fields, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L12808, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047213, 2011.
Loh, Z., Leuning, R., Zegelin, S., Etheridge, D., Bai, M., Naylor, T., and Griffith, D.: Testing Lagrangian atmospheric dispersion modelling to monitor CO2 and CH4 leakage from geosequestration, Atmos. Environ., 43, 2602–2611, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.01.053, 2009.
Lund, U. and Agostinelli, C.: circular: Circular Statistics, R package version 0.4-7, available at: http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/circular/index.html (last access: 29 January 2015), 2013.
McBain, M. C. and Desjardins, R. L.: The evaluation of a backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS) model to estimate greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural sources using a synthetic tracer source, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 135, 61–72, 2005.
McKain, K., Wofsy, S. C., Nehrkorn, T., Eluszkiewicz, J., Ehleringer, J. R., and Stephens, B. B.: Assessment of ground-based atmospheric observations for verification of greenhouse gas emissions from an urban region, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 8423–8428, 2012.
Meijer, H. A. J., Smid, H. M., Perez, E., and Keizer, M. G.: Isotopic characterisation of anthropogenic CO2 emissions using isotopic and radiocarbon analysis, Phys. Chem. Earth, 21, 483–487, 1996.
Miles, N. L., Richardson, S. J., Davis, K. J., Lauvaux, T., Andrews, A. E., West, T., Bandaru, V., and Crosson, E. R.: Large amplitude spatial and temporal gradients in atmospheric boundary layer CO2 mole fractions detected with a tower-based network in the US Upper Midwest, J. Geophys. Res., 117, G01019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JG001781, 2012.
National Research Council: Verifying Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Methods to Support International Climate Agreements, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., USA, 124 pp., 2010.
Nisbet, E. and Weiss, R.: Top-down versus bottom-up, Science, 328, 1241–1243, 2010.
Norris, M. W.: Reconstruction of historic fossil CO2 emissions using radiocarbon measurements from tree rings, MS thesis, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand, 155 pp., 2015.
NZMED: New Zealand's Energy Outlook 2010, New Zealand Ministry of Economic Development, Wellington, New Zealand, 12 pp., 2010.
Pachauri, R. K., Allen, M. R., Barros, V. R., Broome, J., Cramer, W., Christ, R., Church, J. A., Clarke, L., Dahe, Q., Dasgupta, P., and Dubash, N. K.: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp., 2014.
Prather, M. J., Zhu, X., Strahan, S. E., Steenrod, S. D., and Rodriguez, J. M.: Quantifying errors in trace species transport modeling, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 19617–19621, 2008.
Rakowski, A. Z., Nadeau, M. J., Nakamura, T., Pazdur, A., Pawełczyk, S., and Piotrowska, N.: Radiocarbon method in environmental monitoring of CO2 emission, Nucl. Instrum. Meth. B, 294, 503–507, 2013.
R Core Team: R: A language and environment for statistical computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, available at: http://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 21 August 2014), 2013.
re3data.org: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, re3data.org – Registry of Research Data Repositories, https://doi.org/10.17616/R3G598 (last access: 28 April 2016), 2015.
Rhoades, M. B., Parker, D. B., Cole, N. A., Todd, R. W., Caraway, E. A., Auvermann, B. W., Topliff, D. R., and Schuster, G. L.: Continuous ammonia emission measurements from a commercial beef feedyard in Texas, Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, 53, 1823–1831, 2010.
Scire, J. S., Strimaitis, D. G., and Yamartino, R. J.: A user's guide for the CALPUFF dispersion model, Earth Tech, Inc, Concord, Massachusetts, USA, 2000.
Serre, C., Santikarn, M., Stelmakh, K., Eden, A., Frerk, M., Kachi, A., Unger, C., Wilkening, K., and Haug, C. (Eds): Emissions Trading Worldwide: International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP) Status Report 2015, International Carbon Action Partnership, Berlin, Germany, 71 pp., 2015.
Stephens, B. B., Gurney, K. R., Tans, P. P., Sweeney, C., Peters, W., Bruhwiler, L., Ciais, P., Ramonet, M., Bousquet, P., Nakazawa, T., Aoki, S., Machida, T., Inoue, G., Vinnichenko, N., Lloyd, J., Jordan, A., Heimann, M., Shibistova, O., Langenfelds, R. L., Steele, L. P., Francey, R. J., and Denning, A. S.: Weak Northern and Strong Tropical Land Carbon Uptake from Vertical Profiles of Atmospheric CO2, Science, 316, 1732–1735, 2007.
Suess, H. E.: Radiocarbon concentration in modern wood, Science, 122, 415–417, 1955.
Tait, A., Henderson, R., Turner, R., and Zheng, X. G.: Thin plate smoothing spline interpolation of daily rainfall for New Zealand using a climatological rainfall surface, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 2097–2115, 2006.
Tans, P. P. and Wallace, D. W.: Carbon cycle research after Kyoto, Tellus B, 51, 562–571, 1999.
Tans, P. P., De Jong, A. F. M., and Mook, W. G.: Natural atmospheric 14C variation and the Suess effect, Nature, 280, 826–828, 1979.
Taranaki Regional Council: Ballance Agri-Nutrients (Kapuni) Ltd Monitoring Programme Biennial Report 2010–2012: Technical Report 2012-91, Taranaki Regional Council, Stratford, New Zealand, 63 pp., 2013.
Turnbull, J. C., Miller, J. B., Lehman, S. J., Tans, P. P., Sparks, R. J., and Southon, J. R.: Comparison of 14CO2, CO and SF6 as tracers for determination of recently added fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere and implications for biological CO2 exchange, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L01817, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024213, 2006.
Turnbull, J. C., Keller, E. D., Baisden, T., Brailsford, G., Bromley, T., Norris, M., and Zondervan, A.: Atmospheric measurement of point source fossil CO2 emissions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5001–5014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5001-2014, 2014.
Turnbull, J. C., Zondervan, A., Kaiser, J., Norris, M., Dahl, J., Baisden, T., and Lehman, S.: High-Precision Atmospheric 14CO2 Measurement at the Rafter Radiocarbon Laboratory, Radiocarbon, 57, 377–388, 2015.
Ummel, K.: CARMA revisited: an updated database of carbon dioxide emissions from power plants worldwide, Center for Global Development Working Paper 304, Center for Global Development, Washington, D.C., USA, 2012.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): Kyoto Protocol, available at: http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php (last access: 29 May 2015), 2015a.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, available at: http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php (last access: 29 May 2015), 2015b.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Plain English Guide to the Part 75 Rule, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., USA, 118 pp., 2005.
Wheeler, D. and Ummel, K.: Calculating CARMA: global estimation of CO2 emissions from the power sector, Center for Global Development Working Paper 145, Center for Global Development, Washington, D.C., USA, 2008.
Wilson, J. D. and Sawford, B. L.: Review of Lagrangian stochastic models for trajectories in the turbulent atmosphere, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 78, 191–210, 1996.
Wilson, J. D., Flesch, T. K., and Crenna, B. P.: Estimating Surface-Air Gas Fluxes by Inverse Dispersion Using a Backward Lagrangian Stochastic Trajectory Model, in: Lagrangian Modeling of the Atmosphere, edited by: Lin, J., Brunner, D., Gerbig, C., Stohl, A., Luhar, A., and Webley, P., American Geophysical Union, Washington, D. C., USA, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GM001269, 2012.
Zondervan, A., Hauser, T. M., Kaiser, J., Kitchen, R. L., Turnbull, J. C., and West, J. G.: XCAMS: The compact 14C accelerator mass spectrometer extended for 10Be and 26Al at GNS Science, New Zealand, Nucl. Instrum. Meth. B, 361, 25–33, 2015.
Short summary
We examine the utility of tree ring 14C archives for detecting long-term changes in fossil CO2 emissions from a point source using six years of observations from two trees near the Kapuni Gas Treatment Plant in New Zealand. Pairing these observations with an atmospheric transport model, we quantify the minimum amount of change in annual emissions that it would be possible to detect in new samples representing averages over one, two, and four years.
We examine the utility of tree ring 14C archives for detecting long-term changes in fossil CO2...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint