Articles | Volume 23, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7447-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7447-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Jul 2023
Research article |
| 06 Jul 2023
| 06 Jul 2023
Weakening of the tropical tropopause layer cold trap with global warming
Stephen Bourguet
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, 20 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
Marianna Linz
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, 20 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, 29 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
Related authors
Luke M. Western, Stephen Bourguet, Molly Crotwell, Lei Hu, Paul B. Krummel, Hélène De Longueville, Alistair J. Mainning, Jens Mühle, Dominique Rust, Isaac Vimont, Martin K. Vollmer, Minde An, Jgor Arduini, Andreas Engel, Paul J. Fraser, Anita L. Ganesan, Christina M. Harth, Chris Lunder, Michela Maione, Stephen A. Montzka, David Nance, Simon O’Doherty, Sunyoung Park, Stefan Reimann, Peter K. Salameh, Roland Schmidt, Kieran M. Stanley, Thomas Wagenhäuser, Dickon Young, Matt Rigby, Ronald G. Prinn, and Ray F. Weiss
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3000, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
We used atmospheric measurements to estimate emissions of two gases, called HCFC-123 and HCFC-124, that harm the ozone layer. Despite international regulation to stop their production, we found that their emissions have not fallen. This may be linked to how they are used to make other chemicals. Our findings show that some banned substances are still reaching the atmosphere, likely through leaks during chemical production, which could slow the recovery of the ozone layer.
Stephen Bourguet and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13325–13339, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13325-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we tested the impact of spatial and temporal resolution on Lagrangian trajectory studies in a key region of interest for climate feedbacks and stratospheric chemistry. Our analysis shows that new higher-resolution input data provide an opportunity for a better understanding of physical processes that control how air moves from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Future studies of how these processes will change in a warming climate will benefit from these results.
Jezabel Curbelo and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7941–7957, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7941-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7941-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Studying stratospheric mixing is crucial for understanding atmospheric dynamics and chemical transport. We propose a new Lagrangian metric based on the density of transport barriers, attracting/repelling coherent structures, to analyze mixing in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. Our metric is a promising tool for stratospheric analysis, consistent with commonly used metrics to quantify mixing while also providing the advantage of reflecting Lagrangian transport in physical latitude.
Luke M. Western, Stephen Bourguet, Molly Crotwell, Lei Hu, Paul B. Krummel, Hélène De Longueville, Alistair J. Mainning, Jens Mühle, Dominique Rust, Isaac Vimont, Martin K. Vollmer, Minde An, Jgor Arduini, Andreas Engel, Paul J. Fraser, Anita L. Ganesan, Christina M. Harth, Chris Lunder, Michela Maione, Stephen A. Montzka, David Nance, Simon O’Doherty, Sunyoung Park, Stefan Reimann, Peter K. Salameh, Roland Schmidt, Kieran M. Stanley, Thomas Wagenhäuser, Dickon Young, Matt Rigby, Ronald G. Prinn, and Ray F. Weiss
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3000, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
We used atmospheric measurements to estimate emissions of two gases, called HCFC-123 and HCFC-124, that harm the ozone layer. Despite international regulation to stop their production, we found that their emissions have not fallen. This may be linked to how they are used to make other chemicals. Our findings show that some banned substances are still reaching the atmosphere, likely through leaks during chemical production, which could slow the recovery of the ozone layer.
Laura N. Saunders, Kaley A. Walker, Gabriele P. Stiller, Thomas von Clarmann, Florian Haenel, Hella Garny, Harald Bönisch, Chris D. Boone, Ariana E. Castillo, Andreas Engel, Johannes C. Laube, Marianna Linz, Felix Ploeger, David A. Plummer, Eric A. Ray, and Patrick E. Sheese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4185–4209, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4185-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4185-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a 17-year stratospheric age-of-air dataset derived from ACE-FTS satellite measurements of sulfur hexafluoride. This is the longest continuous, global, and vertically resolved age of air time series available to date. In this paper, we show that this dataset agrees well with age-of-air datasets based on measurements from other instruments. We also present trends in the midlatitude lower stratosphere that indicate changes in the global circulation that are predicted by climate models.
Louis Rivoire, Marianna Linz, Jessica L. Neu, Pu Lin, and Michelle L. Santee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2269–2289, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2269-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2269-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The recovery of the ozone hole since the 1987 Montreal Protocol has been observed in some regions but has yet to be seen globally. We ask how long it will take to witness a global recovery. Using a technique akin to flying a virtual satellite in a climate model, we find that the degree of confidence we place in the answer to this question is dramatically affected by errors in satellite observations.
Hella Garny, Roland Eichinger, Johannes C. Laube, Eric A. Ray, Gabriele P. Stiller, Harald Bönisch, Laura Saunders, and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4193–4215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4193-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4193-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transport circulation in the stratosphere is important for the distribution of tracers, but its strength is hard to measure. Mean transport times can be inferred from observations of trace gases with certain properties, such as sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). However, this gas has a chemical sink in the high atmosphere, which can lead to substantial biases in inferred transport times. In this paper we present a method to correct mean transport times derived from SF6 for the effects of chemical sinks.
Stephen Bourguet and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13325–13339, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13325-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we tested the impact of spatial and temporal resolution on Lagrangian trajectory studies in a key region of interest for climate feedbacks and stratospheric chemistry. Our analysis shows that new higher-resolution input data provide an opportunity for a better understanding of physical processes that control how air moves from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Future studies of how these processes will change in a warming climate will benefit from these results.
Benjamin Birner, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Eric J. Morgan, Britton B. Stephens, Marianna Linz, Wuhu Feng, Chris Wilson, Jonathan D. Bent, Steven C. Wofsy, Jeffrey Severinghaus, and Ralph F. Keeling
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12391–12408, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12391-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12391-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
With new high-precision observations from nine aircraft campaigns and 3-D chemical transport modeling, we show that the argon-to-nitrogen ratio (Ar / N2) in the lowermost stratosphere provides a useful constraint on the “age of air” (the time elapsed since entry of an air parcel into the stratosphere). Therefore, Ar / N2 in combination with traditional age-of-air indicators, such as CO2 and N2O, could provide new insights into atmospheric mixing and transport.
Cited articles
Abalos, M., Calvo, N., Benito-Barca, S., Garny, H., Hardiman, S. C., Lin, P., Andrews, M. B., Butchart, N., Garcia, R., Orbe, C., Saint-Martin, D., Watanabe, S., and Yoshida, K.: The Brewer–Dobson circulation in CMIP6, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13571–13591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, 2021. a, b
Brewer, A. W.: Evidence for a world circulation provided by the measurements of helium and water vapour distribution in the stratosphere, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 75, 351–363, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49707532603, 1949. a
Butchart, N.: The Brewer-Dobson circulation, Rev. Geophys., 52, 157–184, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013RG000448, 2014. a
Butchart, N., Cionni, I., Eyring, V., Shepherd, T., Waugh, D., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Brühl, C., Chipperfield, M., Cordero, E., Dameris, M., Deckert, R., Dhomse, S., Frith, S. M., Garcia, R. R., Gettelman, A., Giorgetta, M. A.,
Kinnison, D. E., Li, F., Mancini, E., McLandress, C., Pawson, S., Pitari, G.,
Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Sassi, F., Scinocca, J. F., Shibata, K.,
Steil, B., and Tian, W.: Chemistry–climate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate and circulation changes, J. Climate, 23, 5349–5374, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3404.1, 2010. a
Chrysanthou, A., Maycock, A. C., and Chipperfield, M. P.: Decomposing the response of the stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation to an abrupt quadrupling in CO2, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 155–174, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-155-2020, 2020. a
Chung, E.-S., Timmermann, A., Soden, B. J., Ha, K.-J., Shi, L., and John, V. O.: Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 405–412, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0446-4, 2019. a
Corti, T., Luo, B. P., de Reus, M., Brunner, D., Cairo, F., Mahoney, M. J., Martucci, G., Matthey, R., Mitev, V., dos Santos, F. H., Schiller, C., Shur, G., Sitnikov, N. M., Spelten, N., Vössing, H. J., Borrmann, S., and Peter, T.: Unprecedented evidence for deep convection hydrating the tropical stratosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L10810, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033641, 2008. a
Dessler, A. E., Hanisco, T. F., and Fueglistaler, S.: Effects of convective ice lofting on H2O and HDO in the tropical tropopause layer, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D18309, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008609, 2007. a
Dessler, A. E., Schoeberl, M. R., Wang, T., Davis, S. M., and Rosenlof, K. H.: Stratospheric water vapor feedback, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 18087–18091, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1310344110, 2013. a
Dessler, A. E., Schoeberl, M. R., Wang, T., Davis, S. M., Rosenlof, K. H., and Vernier, J. P.: Variations of stratospheric water vapor over the past three decades, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 12588–12598, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021712, 2014. a
Dinh, T., Fueglistaler, S., Durran, D., and Ackerman, T.: Cirrus and water vapour transport in the tropical tropopause layer – Part 2: Roles of ice nucleation and sedimentation, cloud dynamics, and moisture conditions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12225–12236, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12225-2014, 2014. a
Donner, L. J., Wyman, B. L., Hemler, R. S., Horowitz, L. W., Ming, Y., Zhao, M., Golaz, J.-C., Ginoux, P., Lin, S.-J., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Austin, J., Alaka, G., Cooke, W. F., Delworth, T. L., Freidenreich, S. M., Gordon, C. T.,
Griffies, S. M., Held, I. M., Hurlin, W. J., Klein, S. A., Knutson, T. R., Langenhorst, A. R., Lee, H.-C, Lin, Y., Magi, B. I., Malyshev, S. L., Milly, P. C. D., Naik, V., Nath, M. J., Pincus, R., Ploshay, J. J., Ramaswamy, V., Seman, C. J., Shevliakova, E., Sirutis, J. J., Stern, W. F., Stouffer, R. J., Wilson, R. J., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., and Zeng, F.: The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL global coupled model CM3, J. Climate, 24, 3484–3519, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3955.1, 2011. a
de F. Forster, P. M. and Shine, K. P.: Stratospheric water vapour changes as a possible contributor to observed stratospheric cooling, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 3309–3312, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL010487, 1999. a
Fritts, D. C. and Alexander, M. J.: Gravity wave dynamics and effects in the middle atmosphere, Rev. Geophys., 41, 1003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001RG000106, 2003. a
Fueglistaler, S., Bonazzola, M., Haynes, P. H., and Peter, T.: Stratospheric water vapor predicted from the Lagrangian temperature history of air entering the stratosphere in the tropics, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D08107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005516, 2005. a, b
Fueglistaler, S., Dessler, A. E., Dunkerton, T. J., Folkins, I., Fu, Q., and Mote, P. W.: Tropical tropopause layer, Rev. Geophys., 47, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008RG000267, 2009. a
Fueglistaler, S., Liu, Y., Flannaghan, T., Haynes, P., Dee, D., Read, W., Remsberg, E., Thomason, L., Hurst, D., Lanzante, J., and Bernath, P.: The relation between atmospheric humidity and temperature trends for stratospheric water, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1052–1074, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50157, 2013. a
Fueglistaler, S., Liu, Y. S., Flannaghan, T. J., Ploeger, F., and Haynes, P. H.: Departure from Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of water entering the stratosphere in response to changes in tropical upwelling, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 1962–1972, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020772, 2014. a, b, c, d, e
Gettelman, A., Hegglin, M. I., Son, S.-W., Kim, J., Fujiwara, M., Birner, T., Kremser, S., Rex, M., Añel, J., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Bekki, S., Braesike, P., Brühl, C., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Garny, H., Hardiman, S. C., Jöckel, P., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque, J. F.,
Mancini, E., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D., Pyle, J. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J., Shepherd, T. G., Shibata, K., Smale, D., Teyssèdre, H., and Tian, W.: Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Tropics and global trends, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00M08, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013638, 2010. a
Hardiman, S. C., Butchart, N., and Calvo, N.: The morphology of the Brewer–Dobson circulation and its response to climate change in CMIP5 simulations, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 1958–1965, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2258, 2014. a
Heede, U. K., Fedorov, A. V., and Burls, N. J.: A stronger versus weaker Walker: understanding model differences in fast and slow tropical Pacific responses to global warming, Clim. Dynam., 57, 2505–2522, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05818-5, 2021. a
Held, I. M. and Soden, B. J.: Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming, J. Climate, 19, 5686–5699, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3990.1, 2006. a, b
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020 (data available at: https://apps.ecmwf.int/data-catalogues/era5/?class=ea, last access: 1 February 2023). a, b
Heymsfield, A. J. and Westbrook, C.: Advances in the estimation of ice particle fall speeds using laboratory and field measurements, J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 2469–2482, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3379.1, 2010. a
Holton, J. R. and Gettelman, A.: Horizontal transport and the dehydration of the stratosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2799–2802, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013148, 2001. a, b
Hu, D., Tian, W., Guan, Z., Guo, Y., and Dhomse, S.: Longitudinal asymmetric trends of tropical cold-point tropopause temperature and their link to strengthened Walker circulation, J. Climate, 29, 7755–7771, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0851.1, 2016. a
Jensen, E. and Pfister, L.: Transport and freeze-drying in the tropical tropopause layer, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D02207, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004022, 2004. a
Jensen, E., Pfister, L., and Toon, O.: Impact of radiative heating, wind shear, temperature variability, and microphysical processes on the structure and evolution of thin cirrus in the tropical tropopause layer, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D12209, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015417, 2011. a
Jöckel, P., Tost, H., Pozzer, A., Kunze, M., Kirner, O., Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M., Brinkop, S., Cai, D. S., Dyroff, C., Eckstein, J., Frank, F., Garny, H., Gottschaldt, K.-D., Graf, P., Grewe, V., Kerkweg, A., Kern, B., Matthes, S., Mertens, M., Meul, S., Neumaier, M., Nützel, M., Oberländer-Hayn, S., Ruhnke, R., Runde, T., Sander, R., Scharffe, D., and Zahn, A.: Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) version 2.51, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1153–1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1153-2016, 2016. a
Keeble, J., Hassler, B., Banerjee, A., Checa-Garcia, R., Chiodo, G., Davis, S., Eyring, V., Griffiths, P. T., Morgenstern, O., Nowack, P., Zeng, G., Zhang, J., Bodeker, G., Burrows, S., Cameron-Smith, P., Cugnet, D., Danek, C., Deushi, M., Horowitz, L. W., Kubin, A., Li, L., Lohmann, G., Michou, M., Mills, M. J., Nabat, P., Olivié, D., Park, S., Seland, Ø., Stoll, J., Wieners, K.-H., and Wu, T.: Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021. a
Kim, J.-E. and Alexander, M. J.: Direct impacts of waves on tropical cold point tropopause temperature, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 1584–1592, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062737, 2015. a
Konopka, P., Tao, M., Ploeger, F., Hurst, D. F., Santee, M. L., Wright, J. S., and Riese, M.: Stratospheric Moistening After 2000, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL097609, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097609, 2022. a
Koop, T., Luo, B., Tsias, A., and Peter, T.: Water activity as the determinant for homogeneous ice nucleation in aqueous solutions, Nature, 406, 611–614, https://doi.org/10.1038/35020537, 2000. a
Lamarque, J.-F., Shindell, D. T., Josse, B., Young, P. J., Cionni, I., Eyring, V., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Collins, W. J., Doherty, R., Dalsoren, S., Faluvegi, G., Folberth, G., Ghan, S. J., Horowitz, L. W., Lee, Y. H., MacKenzie, I. A., Nagashima, T., Naik, V., Plummer, D., Righi, M., Rumbold, S. T., Schulz, M., Skeie, R. B., Stevenson, D. S., Strode, S., Sudo, K., Szopa, S., Voulgarakis, A., and Zeng, G.: The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): overview and description of models, simulations and climate diagnostics, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 179–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, 2013. a, b
Lee, S., L'Heureux, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Seager, R., O'Gorman, P. A., and Johnson, N. C.: On the future zonal contrasts of equatorial Pacific climate: Perspectives from Observations, Simulations, and Theories, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5, 82, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00301-2, 2022. a
Legras, B. and Bucci, S.: Confinement of air in the Asian monsoon anticyclone and pathways of convective air to the stratosphere during the summer season, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11045–11064, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11045-2020, 2020. a
Lin, P., Paynter, D., Ming, Y., and Ramaswamy, V.: Changes of the tropical tropopause layer under global warming, J. Climate, 30, 1245–1258, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0457.1, 2017. a
Liu, Y. S., Fueglistaler, S., and Haynes, P. H.: Advection-condensation paradigm for stratospheric water vapor, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D24307, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014352, 2010. a, b, c, d
Mote, P. W., Rosenlof, K. H., McIntyre, M. E., Carr, E. S., Gille, J. C., Holton, J. R., Kinnersley, J. S., Pumphrey, H. C., Russell III, J. M., and Waters, J. W.: An atmospheric tape recorder: The imprint of tropical tropopause temperatures on stratospheric water vapor, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 101, 3989–4006, https://doi.org/10.1029/95JD03422, 1996. a
Newell, R. E. and Gould-Stewart, S.: A Stratospheric Fountain?, J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 2789–2796, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1981)038<2789:ASF>2.0.CO;2, 1981. a
Oberländer-Hayn, S., Gerber, E. P., Abalichin, J., Akiyoshi, H., Kerschbaumer, A., Kubin, A., Kunze, M., Langematz, U., Meul, S., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., and Oman, L. D.: Is the Brewer-Dobson circulation increasing or moving upward?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 1772–1779, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067545, 2016. a
Pan, L. L., Honomichl, S. B., Thornberry, T., Rollins, A., Bui, T. P., Pfister, L., and Jensen, E. E.: Observational Evidence of Horizontal Transport-Driven Dehydration in the TTL, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 7848–7856, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083647, 2019. a
Randel, W. J. and Park, M.: Diagnosing observed stratospheric water vapor relationships to the cold point tropical tropopause, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 7018–7033, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030648, 2019. a
Riese, M., Ploeger, F., Rap, A., Vogel, B., Konopka, P., Dameris, M., and Forster, P.: Impact of uncertainties in atmospheric mixing on simulated UTLS composition and related radiative effects, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D16305, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017751, 2012. a
Rosenlof, K. H.: Seasonal cycle of the residual mean meridional circulation in the stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 100, 5173–5191, https://doi.org/10.1029/94JD03122, 1995. a
Schoeberl, M. R. and Dessler, A. E.: Dehydration of the stratosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 8433–8446, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-8433-2011, 2011. a
Schoeberl, M. R., Dessler, A. E., Wang, T., Avery, M. A., and Jensen, E. J.: Cloud formation, convection, and stratospheric dehydration, Earth Space Sci., 1, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EA000014, 2014. a
Scinocca, J. F., McFarlane, N. A., Lazare, M., Li, J., and Plummer, D.: Technical Note: The CCCma third generation AGCM and its extension into the middle atmosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 7055–7074, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-7055-2008, 2008. a
Sherwood, S. C.: A stratospheric “drain” over the maritime continent, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 677–680, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL010868, 2000. a
Shindell, D., Lamarque, J. F., Collins, W., Eyring, V., Nagashima, T., Naik, V., Szopa, S., and Zeng, G.: The model data outputs from the Atmospheric Chemistry & Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis [data set], http://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/ded523bf23d59910e5d73f1703a2d540 (last access: 1 February 2023), 2011. a
Smith, J. W., Haynes, P. H., Maycock, A. C., Butchart, N., and Bushell, A. C.: Sensitivity of stratospheric water vapour to variability in tropical tropopause temperatures and large-scale transport, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2469–2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2469-2021, 2021. a
Sohn, B. and Park, S.-C.: Strengthened tropical circulations in past three decades inferred from water vapor transport, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D15112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013713, 2010.
a
Solomon, S., Rosenlof, K. H., Portmann, R. W., Daniel, J. S., Davis, S. M., Sanford, T. J., and Plattner, G.-K.: Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming, Science, 327, 1219–1223, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1182488, 2010. a
Sprenger, M. and Wernli, H.: The LAGRANTO Lagrangian analysis tool – version 2.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2569-2015, 2015. a
Teyssèdre, H., Michou, M., Clark, H. L., Josse, B., Karcher, F., Olivié, D., Peuch, V.-H., Saint-Martin, D., Cariolle, D., Attié, J.-L., Nédélec, P., Ricaud, P., Thouret, V., van der A, R. J., Volz-Thomas, A., and Chéroux, F.: A new tropospheric and stratospheric Chemistry and Transport Model MOCAGE-Climat for multi-year studies: evaluation of the present-day climatology and sensitivity to surface processes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 5815–5860, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-5815-2007, 2007. a
Ueyama, R., Jensen, E. J., Pfister, L., and Kim, J.-E.: Dynamical, convective, and microphysical control on wintertime distributions of water vapor and clouds in the tropical tropopause layer, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 10483–10500, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023318, 2015. a, b
Ueyama, R., Jensen, E. J., Pfister, L., Krämer, M., Afchine, A., and Schoeberl, M.: Impact of Convectively Detrained Ice Crystals on the Humidity of the Tropical Tropopause Layer in Boreal Winter, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2020JD032894, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032894, 2020. a
Vecchi, G. A. and Soden, B. J.: Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation, J. Climate, 20, 4316–4340, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4258.1, 2007. a
Wang, T., Dessler, A. E., Schoeberl, M. R., Randel, W. J., and Kim, J.-E.: The impact of temperature vertical structure on trajectory modeling of stratospheric water vapor, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3517–3526, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3517-2015, 2015. a
Watanabe, S., Hajima, T., Sudo, K., Nagashima, T., Takemura, T., Okajima, H., Nozawa, T., Kawase, H., Abe, M., Yokohata, T., Ise, T., Sato, H., Kato, E., Takata, K., Emori, S., and Kawamiya, M.: MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 845–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-845-2011, 2011. a
Woods, S., Lawson, R. P., Jensen, E., Bui, T., Thornberry, T., Rollins, A., Pfister, L., and Avery, M.: Microphysical properties of tropical tropopause layer cirrus, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 6053–6069, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028068, 2018. a, b, c
Short summary
Here, we show how projected changes to tropical circulation will impact the water vapor concentration in the lower stratosphere, which has implications for surface climate and stratospheric chemistry. In our transport scenarios with slower east–west winds, air parcels ascending into the stratosphere do not experience the same cold temperatures that they would today. This effect could act in concert with previously modeled changes to stratospheric water vapor to amplify surface warming.
Here, we show how projected changes to tropical circulation will impact the water vapor...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint