Articles | Volume 23, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13701-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13701-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Nov 2023
Research article |
| 03 Nov 2023
| 03 Nov 2023
Atmospheric impacts of chlorinated very short-lived substances over the recent past – Part 2: Impacts on ozone
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (NOAA CSL), Boulder, CO, USA
Ryan Hossaini
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Centre of Excellence in Environmental Data Science (CEEDS), Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Martyn P. Chipperfield
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO), University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
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We study a future scenario where artificial stratospheric aerosol injections counter medium climate change, to understand possible negative side effects like ozone depletion. The injected aerosol layer is implemented uniformly in five climate models, which eliminates some uncertainty from model-specific aerosol evolution. The models agree well on where and how key thermodynamical (heating, circulation) and chemical processes change, however, the strength of the change varies considerably.
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Stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method to slow global warming by adding tiny reflective particles high up in the atmosphere to cool the planet. We study how this proposed method might affect air quality and human health using climate models. We find that the health impacts would likely be small and are mainly driven by changes in climate, not by the particles themselves.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, James M. Haywood, Matthew Henry, Andy Jones, Ben Kravitz, Walker R. Lee, Douglas G. MacMartin, Amanda C. Maycock, Takashi Sekiya, Shingo Watanabe, and Daniele Visioni
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An assessment of the potential impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, a proposed method to offset global warming, on stratospheric ozone projections over the 21st century using the new multi-model GeoMIP G6-1.5K-SAI experiment. We discuss drivers of the responses, identify areas of model agreement and disagreement and sources of uncertainty. Our results highlight the need to assess any projected SAI impacts in wider strategy and scenario dimension using a multi-model framework.
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The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the main source of wind fluctuations in the tropical stratosphere, which can couple to surface climate. However, models do a poor job of simulating the QBO in the lower stratosphere, for reasons that remain unclear. One possibility is that models do not completely represent how ozone influences the QBO-associated wind variations. Here we propose a multi-model framework for assessing how ozone influences the QBO in recent past and future climates.
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 197–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-197-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-197-2026, 2026
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We investigate whether the 2022 Hunga eruption could affect surface climate via indirect pathways using large ensembles of Earth System Model simulations. These suggest that the eruption could have a non-negligible influence on regional surface climate, and we discuss the mechanisms via which such an influence could occur but also highlight that the forcing is relatively weak compared to natural climate variability which significantly hinders the detection of such impacts in the real world.
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is a proposed method of cooling the planet by introducing reflective particles called aerosols into the middle atmosphere to reflect sunlight back into space. We consider recent simulations of SAI from four different climate models. SAI cools the planet effectively in all four models; we examine the impacts on temperature and precipitation in each model and compare to previous experiments. Our simulations will help inform future research and policy.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Valentina Aquila, Amy H. Butler, Peter Colarco, Eric Fleming, Freja F. Østerstrøm, David Plummer, Ilaria Quaglia, William Randel, Michelle L. Santee, Takashi Sekiya, Simone Tilmes, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, Yunqian Zhu, and Zhihong Zhuo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4609, 2025
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The 2022 Hunga eruption injected unprecedented quantities of water vapor into the stratosphere, alongside modest amounts of aerosol precursors. We assess its impacts on stratospheric ozone layer using a multi-model ensemble of chemistry-climate simulations. The results confirm the eruption's role in modulating SH mid and high latitudes ozone abundances in the short term, and discuss the different chemical and dynamical processes driving those changes as well as the role of natural variability.
Zhihong Zhuo, Xinyue Wang, Yunqian Zhu, Wandi Yu, Ewa M. Bednarz, Eric Fleming, Peter R. Colarco, Shingo Watanabe, David Plummer, Georgiy Stenchikov, William Randel, Adam Bourassa, Valentina Aquila, Takashi Sekiya, Mark R. Schoeberl, Simone Tilmes, Jun Zhang, Paul J. Kushner, and Francesco S. R. Pausata
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 13161–13176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13161-2025, 2025
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The 2022 Hunga eruption caused unprecedented stratospheric water injection, triggering unique atmospheric impacts. This study combines observations and model simulations, projecting a stratospheric water vapor anomaly lasting 4–7 years, with significant temperature variations and ozone depletion in the upper atmosphere lasting 7–10 years. These findings offer critical insights into the role of stratospheric water vapor in shaping climate and atmospheric chemistry.
Ilaria Quaglia, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Yunqian Zhu, Georgiy Stenchikov, Valentina Aquila, Cheng-Cheng Liu, Graham W. Mann, Yifeng Peng, Takashi Sekiya, Simone Tilmes, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Pengfei Yu, Jun Zhang, and Wandi Yu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3769, 2025
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On January 15, 2022, the Hunga volcano eruption released unprecedented amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere alongside a modest amount of SO2. In this work we analyse results from multiple Earth system models. The models agree that the eruption led to small negative radiative forcing from sulfate aerosols and that the contribution from water vapor was minimal. Therefore, the Hunga eruption cannot explain the exceptional surface warming observed in 2023.
Yunqian Zhu, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Valentina Aquila, Elizabeth Asher, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Christoph Brühl, Amy H. Butler, Parker Case, Simon Chabrillat, Gabriel Chiodo, Margot Clyne, Peter R. Colarco, Sandip Dhomse, Lola Falletti, Eric Fleming, Ben Johnson, Andrin Jörimann, Mahesh Kovilakam, Gerbrand Koren, Ales Kuchar, Nicolas Lebas, Qing Liang, Cheng-Cheng Liu, Graham Mann, Michael Manyin, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, Paul Newman, Luke D. Oman, Freja F. Østerstrøm, Yifeng Peng, David Plummer, Ilaria Quaglia, William Randel, Samuel Rémy, Takashi Sekiya, Stephen Steenrod, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Rei Ueyama, Daniele Visioni, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Yousuke Yamashita, Pengfei Yu, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, and Zhihong Zhuo
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5487–5512, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5487-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5487-2025, 2025
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To understand the climate impact of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption, we developed a climate model–observation comparison project. The paper describes the protocols and models that participate in the experiments. We designed several experiments to achieve our goals of this activity: (1) to evaluate the climate model performance and (2) to understand the Earth system responses to this eruption.
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Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is being studied as a possible supplement to emission reduction to temporarily mitigate some of the risks associated with climate change. The latitudes at which SAI is done determine the effect on the climate. We try to find if there are combinations of latitudes that do a better job of counteracting climate change than existing strategies. We found that there are, but just how significant these improvements are depends on the amount of cooling.
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In this paper, we describe the details of a new multi-model intercomparison experiment to assess the effects of Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention (SAI) on stratospheric chemistry and dynamics and, therefore, ozone. Second, we discuss the advantages and differences of the more constrained experiment compared to fully interactive model experiments. This way, we advance the process-level understanding of the drivers of SAI-induced atmospheric responses.
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1830, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1830, 2025
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As the climate changes, many are studying sunlight reflection as a potential method of cooling. Such climate intervention could be deployed in many possible ways, including in scenarios where not every actor agrees on the strategy of cooling. These scenarios are so diverse that to explore all of them using earth system models proves to be too costly. In this paper, we develop a simplified climate model that allows users to easily explore climate intervention scenarios of their choice.
Matthew Henry, Ewa M. Bednarz, and Jim Haywood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13253–13268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13253-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13253-2024, 2024
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Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) refers to a climate intervention by which aerosols are intentionally added to the high atmosphere to increase the amount of reflected sunlight and reduce Earth's temperature. The climate outcomes of SAI depend on the latitude of injection. While injecting aerosols at the Equator has undesirable side effects, injecting away from the Equator has different effects on temperature, rainfall, ozone, and atmospheric circulation, which are analysed in this work.
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 191–213, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, 2024
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Injecting SO2 into the lower stratosphere can temporarily reduce global mean temperature and mitigate some risks associated with climate change, but injecting it at different latitudes and seasons would have different impacts. This study introduces new stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies and explores the importance of the choice of SAI strategy, demonstrating that it notably affects the distribution of aerosol cloud, injection efficiency, and various surface climate impacts.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, Daniele Visioni, Yan Zhang, Ben Kravitz, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13665–13684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, 2023
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We use a state-of-the-art Earth system model and a set of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies to achieve the same level of global mean surface cooling through different combinations of location and/or timing of the injection. We demonstrate that the choice of SAI strategy can lead to contrasting impacts on stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures, circulation, and chemistry (including stratospheric ozone), thereby leading to different impacts on regional surface climate.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Ryan Hossaini, N. Luke Abraham, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6187–6209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6187-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6187-2023, 2023
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Development and performance of the new DEST chemistry scheme of UM–UKCA is described. The scheme extends the standard StratTrop scheme by including important updates to the halogen chemistry, thus allowing process-oriented studies of stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery, including impacts from both controlled long-lived ozone-depleting substances and emerging issues around uncontrolled, very short-lived substances. It will thus aid studies in support of future ozone assessment reports.
Matthew Henry, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Mohit Dalvi, Alice Wells, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Walker Lee, and Mari R. Tye
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13369–13385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, 2023
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Solar climate interventions, such as injecting sulfur in the stratosphere, may be used to offset some of the adverse impacts of global warming. We use two independently developed Earth system models to assess the uncertainties around stratospheric sulfur injections. The injection locations and amounts are optimized to maintain the same pattern of surface temperature. While both models show reduced warming, the change in rainfall patterns (even without sulfur injections) is uncertain.
Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Walker R. Lee, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 663–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, 2023
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The paper constitutes Part 1 of a study performing a first systematic inter-model comparison of the atmospheric responses to stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (SAIs) at various latitudes as simulated by three state-of-the-art Earth system models. We identify similarities and differences in the modeled aerosol burden, investigate the differences in the aerosol approaches between the models, and ultimately show the differences produced in surface climate, temperature and precipitation.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, James M. Haywood, Jadwiga Richter, Douglas G. MacMartin, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 687–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, 2023
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Building on Part 1 of this two-part study, we demonstrate the role of biases in climatological circulation and specific aspects of model microphysics in driving the differences in simulated sulfate distributions amongst three Earth system models. We then characterize the simulated changes in stratospheric and free-tropospheric temperatures, ozone, water vapor, and large-scale circulation, elucidating the role of the above aspects in the surface responses discussed in Part 1.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Ryan Hossaini, Martyn P. Chipperfield, N. Luke Abraham, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10657–10676, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10657-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric impacts of chlorinated very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLS) over the first two decades of the 21st century are assessed using the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model. Stratospheric input of Cl from Cl-VSLS is estimated at ~130 ppt in 2019. The use of model set-up with constrained meteorology significantly increases the abundance of Cl-VSLS in the lower stratosphere relative to the free-running set-up. The growth in Cl-VSLS emissions significantly impacted recent HCl and COCl2 trends.
Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Andy Jones, James Haywood, Roland Séférian, Pierre Nabat, Olivier Boucher, Ewa Monica Bednarz, and Ulrike Niemeier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4557–4579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, 2022
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This study assesses the impacts of climate interventions, using stratospheric sulfate aerosol and solar dimming on stratospheric ozone, based on three Earth system models with interactive stratospheric chemistry. The climate interventions have been applied to a high emission (baseline) scenario in order to reach global surface temperatures of a medium emission scenario. We find significant increases and decreases in total column ozone, depending on regions and seasons.
Andrin Jörimann, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, David Plummer, Shingo Watanabe, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Gabriel Chiodo, Daniele Visioni, Sandro Vattioni, Eugene Rozanov, Ewa M. Bednarz, Béatrice Jossé, Yousuke Yamashita, and Thomas Peter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-444, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
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We study a future scenario where artificial stratospheric aerosol injections counter medium climate change, to understand possible negative side effects like ozone depletion. The injected aerosol layer is implemented uniformly in five climate models, which eliminates some uncertainty from model-specific aerosol evolution. The models agree well on where and how key thermodynamical (heating, circulation) and chemical processes change, however, the strength of the change varies considerably.
Laura Gomez-Martin, Cristina Prados-Roman, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Michel Van Roozendael, Olga Puentedura, Monica Navarro-Comas, Hector Ochoa, and Margarita Yela
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-17, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (AMT).
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The Antarctic ozone hole remains a critical global challenge. Accurately measuring the gases that cause it during twilights is difficult due to rapid chemical changes. We used advanced computer simulations to reproduce observations at 2 Antarctic stations to account for these fluctuations and the Earth's curvature. Our results improve the accuracy of atmospheric monitoring, helping scientists better track the recovery of the ozone layer and understand the complex chemistry driving its depletion.
Cindy Wang, Daniele Visioni, Glen Chua, and Ewa M. Bednarz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 1339–1357, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-1339-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-1339-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method to slow global warming by adding tiny reflective particles high up in the atmosphere to cool the planet. We study how this proposed method might affect air quality and human health using climate models. We find that the health impacts would likely be small and are mainly driven by changes in climate, not by the particles themselves.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, James M. Haywood, Matthew Henry, Andy Jones, Ben Kravitz, Walker R. Lee, Douglas G. MacMartin, Amanda C. Maycock, Takashi Sekiya, Shingo Watanabe, and Daniele Visioni
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-310, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
An assessment of the potential impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, a proposed method to offset global warming, on stratospheric ozone projections over the 21st century using the new multi-model GeoMIP G6-1.5K-SAI experiment. We discuss drivers of the responses, identify areas of model agreement and disagreement and sources of uncertainty. Our results highlight the need to assess any projected SAI impacts in wider strategy and scenario dimension using a multi-model framework.
Clara Orbe, Alison Ming, Gabriel Chiodo, Michael Prather, Mohamadou Diallo, Qi Tang, Andreas Chrysanthou, Hiroaki Naoe, Xin Zhou, Irina Thaler, Dillon Elsbury, Ewa Bednarz, Jonathon S. Wright, Aaron Match, Shingo Watanabe, James Anstey, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Stefan Versick, Marion Marchand, Feng Li, and James Keeble
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 773–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-773-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-773-2026, 2026
Short summary
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The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the main source of wind fluctuations in the tropical stratosphere, which can couple to surface climate. However, models do a poor job of simulating the QBO in the lower stratosphere, for reasons that remain unclear. One possibility is that models do not completely represent how ozone influences the QBO-associated wind variations. Here we propose a multi-model framework for assessing how ozone influences the QBO in recent past and future climates.
William J. Collins, John S. Daniel, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Martin Cussac, Makoto Deushi, Gregory Faluvegi, Paul Griffiths, Øivind Hodnebrog, Larry W. Horowitz, James Keeble, Douglas Kinnison, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Drew Shindell, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Zihao Wang, and James Weber
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6033, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6033, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are also greenhouse gases that cause global warming. However, their destruction of ozone contributes a global cooling. We have used results from climate models that include atmospheric chemistry and found that the cooling effect of the ozone depletion diagnosed in the models was larger than that calculated using a standard method. We find that some ODSs have a net cooling effect whereas for others the warming effect is significantly reduced.
Marta Abalos, Thomas Birner, Andreas Chrysanthou, Sean Davis, Alvaro de la Cámara, Sandip Dhomse, Hella Garny, Michaela I. Hegglin, Daan Hubert, Oksana Ivaniha, James Keeble, Marianna Linz, Daniele Minganti, Jessica Neu, David Plummer, Laura Saunders, Kasturi Shah, Gabriele Stiller, Kleareti Tourpali, Darryn Waugh, Nathan Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Olaf Morgenstern, Timofei Sukhodolov, Shingo Watanabe, and Yousuke Yamashita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6549, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6549, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Chemistry-climate models are widely used to understand stratospheric ozone and its interactions with climate. We evaluate the most recent generations of models against modern observations. We find that important long-standing errors remain, and some have increased in recent models. Transported too fast in the stratosphere, and the strong winter circulation around the polar region lasts too long. These results highlight where models must improve to better assess past and future changes.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, Xinyue Wang, Zhihong Zhuo, Wandi Yu, Georgiy Stenchikov, Matthew Toohey, and Yunqian Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 197–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-197-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-197-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate whether the 2022 Hunga eruption could affect surface climate via indirect pathways using large ensembles of Earth System Model simulations. These suggest that the eruption could have a non-negligible influence on regional surface climate, and we discuss the mechanisms via which such an influence could occur but also highlight that the forcing is relatively weak compared to natural climate variability which significantly hinders the detection of such impacts in the real world.
Douwang Li, Zhe Wang, Siyi Zhao, Jiankai Zhang, Wuhu Feng, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 77–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-77-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-77-2026, 2026
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We find that wind variations at the equator (QBO) modulate the occurrence of Arctic polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which are key contributors to ozone depletion. During westerly QBO, the PSC occurrence is significantly greater than during easterly QBO. The QBO affects PSC mainly through temperature, while H2O and HNO3 have less effect. This suggests that future climate change may affect ozone recovery if it alters the QBO pattern. This study provides a new perspective on ozone prediction.
Walker Raymond Lee, Daniele Visioni, Benjamin Moore Wagman, Christopher Robert Wentland, Ben Kravitz, Shingo Watanabe, Takashi Sekiya, Andy Jones, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, and Ewa Monika Bednarz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5742, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is a proposed method of cooling the planet by introducing reflective particles called aerosols into the middle atmosphere to reflect sunlight back into space. We consider recent simulations of SAI from four different climate models. SAI cools the planet effectively in all four models; we examine the impacts on temperature and precipitation in each model and compare to previous experiments. Our simulations will help inform future research and policy.
Yuwen Li, Wuhu Feng, John M. C. Plane, Tijian Wang, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5346, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5346, 2025
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The space industry is growing rapidly, but its environmental effects remain uncertain. We used a global chemistry-climate model to study how chlorine released by rocket launches could affect the ozone layer and its recovery from past depletion. Even with large growth in launches, global ozone loss remains small but could locally slow the healing of the ozone layer. These findings highlight the need to consider rocket emissions in future environmental policies.
Matilda A. Pimlott, Richard J. Pope, Brian J. Kerridge, Richard Siddans, Barry G. Latter, Wuhu Feng, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 15991–16007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-15991-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-15991-2025, 2025
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Tropospheric ozone (O3) is a harmful secondary atmospheric pollutant and an important greenhouse gas. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of lower-tropospheric sub-column O3 (LTCO3, surface – 6 km) records from three satellite products produced by the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL) over Europe between 1996 and 2017. Overall, we detect moderate negative trends in the satellite records, but corresponding model simulations and ozonesonde measurements show negligible trends.
Michael P. Cartwright, Jeremy J. Harrison, David P. Moore, Richard J. Pope, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Chris Wilson, and Wuhu Feng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 15913–15934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-15913-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-15913-2025, 2025
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We use satellite measurements to estimate quantities of a gas called carbonyl sulfide (OCS) in the atmosphere. OCS is consumed during photosynthesis, much like carbon dioxide (CO2). Our data is focused mostly over the global oceans for the year 2018, and we find it compares well with past satellite observations, ground-based measurements and modelled OCS. We hope to extend this measurement record and use it in data-driven tools in the future to better understand the carbon cycle globally.
Antonio G. Bruno, David P. Moore, Jeremy J. Harrison, Ailish Graham, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5109, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Indonesian peatlands store vast carbon reserves, but can release large quantities of greenhouse gases and other species with significant environmental impacts, including HCN, when fires occur. Analyzing three major El Niño years with satellites and models, we found that emissions depend on local hydrological conditions, not just El Niño strength. Including soil moisture and burn depth can improve emission estimates and climate strategies.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Valentina Aquila, Amy H. Butler, Peter Colarco, Eric Fleming, Freja F. Østerstrøm, David Plummer, Ilaria Quaglia, William Randel, Michelle L. Santee, Takashi Sekiya, Simone Tilmes, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, Yunqian Zhu, and Zhihong Zhuo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4609, 2025
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The 2022 Hunga eruption injected unprecedented quantities of water vapor into the stratosphere, alongside modest amounts of aerosol precursors. We assess its impacts on stratospheric ozone layer using a multi-model ensemble of chemistry-climate simulations. The results confirm the eruption's role in modulating SH mid and high latitudes ozone abundances in the short term, and discuss the different chemical and dynamical processes driving those changes as well as the role of natural variability.
Zhihong Zhuo, Xinyue Wang, Yunqian Zhu, Wandi Yu, Ewa M. Bednarz, Eric Fleming, Peter R. Colarco, Shingo Watanabe, David Plummer, Georgiy Stenchikov, William Randel, Adam Bourassa, Valentina Aquila, Takashi Sekiya, Mark R. Schoeberl, Simone Tilmes, Jun Zhang, Paul J. Kushner, and Francesco S. R. Pausata
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 13161–13176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13161-2025, 2025
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The 2022 Hunga eruption caused unprecedented stratospheric water injection, triggering unique atmospheric impacts. This study combines observations and model simulations, projecting a stratospheric water vapor anomaly lasting 4–7 years, with significant temperature variations and ozone depletion in the upper atmosphere lasting 7–10 years. These findings offer critical insights into the role of stratospheric water vapor in shaping climate and atmospheric chemistry.
Evgenia Galytska, Birgit Hassler, Carlo Arosio, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip S. Dhomse, Kimberlee Dubé, Wuhu Feng, Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, and Jakob Runge
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6426983/v2, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6426983/v2, 2025
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We explored how chemical and dynamical processes shape ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere. Using a method that identifies cause and effect with satellite data and a chemistry-transport model, we found that from 2004–2011 nitrous oxide quickly affected nitrogen dioxide and ozone, while from 2012–2018 this effect was delayed, weakening ozone loss. Large-scale winds also influenced this link, clarifying how different mechanisms control ozone.
Ilaria Quaglia, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Yunqian Zhu, Georgiy Stenchikov, Valentina Aquila, Cheng-Cheng Liu, Graham W. Mann, Yifeng Peng, Takashi Sekiya, Simone Tilmes, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Pengfei Yu, Jun Zhang, and Wandi Yu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3769, 2025
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On January 15, 2022, the Hunga volcano eruption released unprecedented amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere alongside a modest amount of SO2. In this work we analyse results from multiple Earth system models. The models agree that the eruption led to small negative radiative forcing from sulfate aerosols and that the contribution from water vapor was minimal. Therefore, the Hunga eruption cannot explain the exceptional surface warming observed in 2023.
Yunqian Zhu, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Valentina Aquila, Elizabeth Asher, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Christoph Brühl, Amy H. Butler, Parker Case, Simon Chabrillat, Gabriel Chiodo, Margot Clyne, Peter R. Colarco, Sandip Dhomse, Lola Falletti, Eric Fleming, Ben Johnson, Andrin Jörimann, Mahesh Kovilakam, Gerbrand Koren, Ales Kuchar, Nicolas Lebas, Qing Liang, Cheng-Cheng Liu, Graham Mann, Michael Manyin, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, Paul Newman, Luke D. Oman, Freja F. Østerstrøm, Yifeng Peng, David Plummer, Ilaria Quaglia, William Randel, Samuel Rémy, Takashi Sekiya, Stephen Steenrod, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Rei Ueyama, Daniele Visioni, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Yousuke Yamashita, Pengfei Yu, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, and Zhihong Zhuo
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5487–5512, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5487-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5487-2025, 2025
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To understand the climate impact of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption, we developed a climate model–observation comparison project. The paper describes the protocols and models that participate in the experiments. We designed several experiments to achieve our goals of this activity: (1) to evaluate the climate model performance and (2) to understand the Earth system responses to this eruption.
Maria P. Veláquez-García, Richard J. Pope, Steven T. Turnock, Chetan Deva, David P. Moore, Guilherme Mataveli, Steve R. Arnold, Ruth M. Doherty, and Martyn P. Chiperffield
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3579, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3579, 2025
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Incorporating fire simulation into climate models is crucial for accurately representing the interactions between fires, ecosystems, and climate, thereby enhancing climate projections. In South America, the INFERNO fire model captures active fire zones, e.g. the Amazon Arc of Deforestation, but it overestimates emissions in other areas (mainly in tree-rich ecosystems). The model errors capturing seasonal emission cycles relate to the effects of soil moisture on plant flammability and growth.
Ezra Brody, Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Ewa M. Bednarz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1325–1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1325-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1325-2025, 2025
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Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is being studied as a possible supplement to emission reduction to temporarily mitigate some of the risks associated with climate change. The latitudes at which SAI is done determine the effect on the climate. We try to find if there are combinations of latitudes that do a better job of counteracting climate change than existing strategies. We found that there are, but just how significant these improvements are depends on the amount of cooling.
Simone Tilmes, Ewa M. Bednarz, Andrin Jörimann, Daniele Visioni, Douglas E. Kinnison, Gabriel Chiodo, and David Plummer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6001–6023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6001-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6001-2025, 2025
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In this paper, we describe the details of a new multi-model intercomparison experiment to assess the effects of Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention (SAI) on stratospheric chemistry and dynamics and, therefore, ozone. Second, we discuss the advantages and differences of the more constrained experiment compared to fully interactive model experiments. This way, we advance the process-level understanding of the drivers of SAI-induced atmospheric responses.
Jared Farley, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Ewa Bednarz, Alistair Duffey, and Matthew Henry
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1830, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1830, 2025
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As the climate changes, many are studying sunlight reflection as a potential method of cooling. Such climate intervention could be deployed in many possible ways, including in scenarios where not every actor agrees on the strategy of cooling. These scenarios are so diverse that to explore all of them using earth system models proves to be too costly. In this paper, we develop a simplified climate model that allows users to easily explore climate intervention scenarios of their choice.
Alok K. Pandey, David S. Stevenson, Alcide Zhao, Richard J. Pope, Ryan Hossaini, Krishan Kumar, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4785–4802, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4785-2025, 2025
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Nitrogen dioxide is an air pollutant largely controlled by human activity that affects ozone, methane, and aerosols. Satellite instruments can quantify column NO2 and, by carefully matching the time and location of measurements, enable evaluation of model simulations. NO2 over south and east Asia is assessed, showing that the model captures not only many features of the measurements, but also important differences that suggest model deficiencies in representing several aspects of the atmospheric chemistry of NO2.
Matilda A. Pimlott, Richard J. Pope, Brian J. Kerridge, Richard Siddans, Barry G. Latter, Lucy J. Ventress, Wuhu Feng, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4391–4401, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4391-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4391-2025, 2025
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Globally, lockdowns were implemented to limit the spread of COVID-19, leading to a decrease in emissions of key air pollutants. Here, we use novel satellite data and a chemistry model to investigate the impact of the pandemic on tropospheric ozone (O3), a key pollutant, in 2020. Overall, we found substantial decreases of up to 20 %, two-thirds of which came from emission reductions, while one-third was due to a decrease in the stratospheric O3 flux into the troposphere.
Jamal Makkor, Mathias Palm, Matthias Buschmann, Emmanuel Mahieu, Martyn P. Chipperfield, and Justus Notholt
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 1105–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-1105-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-1105-2025, 2025
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During the years 1950 and 1951, Marcel Migeotte took regular solar measurements in the form of paper rolls at the Jungfraujoch site. These historical spectra proved to be valuable for atmospheric research and needed to be saved for posterity. Therefore, a digitization method which used image-processing techniques was developed to extract them from the historical paper rolls. This allowed them to be saved in a machine-readable format that is easily accessible to the scientific community.
Ryan Hossaini, David Sherry, Zihao Wang, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, David E. Oram, Karina E. Adcock, Stephen A. Montzka, Isobel J. Simpson, Andrea Mazzeo, Amber A. Leeson, Elliot Atlas, and Charles C.-K. Chou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13457–13475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13457-2024, 2024
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DCE (1,2-dichloroethane) is an industrial chemical used to produce PVC (polyvinyl chloride). We analysed DCE production data to estimate global DCE emissions (2002–2020). The emissions were included in an atmospheric model and evaluated by comparing simulated DCE to DCE measurements in the troposphere. We show that DCE contributes ozone-depleting Cl to the stratosphere and that this has increased with increasing DCE emissions. DCE’s impact on stratospheric O3 is currently small but non-zero.
Matthew Henry, Ewa M. Bednarz, and Jim Haywood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13253–13268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13253-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13253-2024, 2024
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Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) refers to a climate intervention by which aerosols are intentionally added to the high atmosphere to increase the amount of reflected sunlight and reduce Earth's temperature. The climate outcomes of SAI depend on the latitude of injection. While injecting aerosols at the Equator has undesirable side effects, injecting away from the Equator has different effects on temperature, rainfall, ozone, and atmospheric circulation, which are analysed in this work.
Chris Wilson, Brian J. Kerridge, Richard Siddans, David P. Moore, Lucy J. Ventress, Emily Dowd, Wuhu Feng, Martyn P. Chipperfield, and John J. Remedios
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10639–10653, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10639-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10639-2024, 2024
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The leaks from the Nord Stream gas pipelines in September 2022 released a large amount of methane (CH4) into the atmosphere. We provide observational data from a satellite instrument that shows a large CH4 plume over the North Sea off the coast of Scandinavia. We use this together with atmospheric models to quantify the CH4 leaked into the atmosphere from the pipelines. We find that 219–427 Gg CH4 was emitted, making this the largest individual fossil-fuel-related CH4 leak on record.
Richard J. Pope, Fiona M. O'Connor, Mohit Dalvi, Brian J. Kerridge, Richard Siddans, Barry G. Latter, Brice Barret, Eric Le Flochmoen, Anne Boynard, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, Matilda A. Pimlott, Sandip S. Dhomse, Christian Retscher, Catherine Wespes, and Richard Rigby
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9177–9195, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9177-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9177-2024, 2024
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Ozone is a potent air pollutant in the lower troposphere, with adverse impacts on human health. Satellite records of tropospheric ozone currently show large-scale inconsistencies in long-term trends. Our detailed study of the potential factors (e.g. satellite errors, where the satellite can observe ozone) potentially driving these inconsistencies found that, in North America, Europe, and East Asia, the underlying trends are typically small with large uncertainties.
Yang Li, Wuhu Feng, Xin Zhou, Yajuan Li, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8277–8293, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8277-2024, 2024
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The Tibetan Plateau (TP), the highest and largest plateau, experiences strong surface solar UV radiation, whose excess can cause harmful influences on local biota. Hence, it is critical to study TP ozone. We find ENSO, the strongest interannual phenomenon, tends to induce tropospheric temperature change and thus modulate tropopause variability, which in turn favours ozone change over the TP. Our results have implications for a better understanding of the interannual variability of TP ozone.
Richard J. Pope, Alexandru Rap, Matilda A. Pimlott, Brice Barret, Eric Le Flochmoen, Brian J. Kerridge, Richard Siddans, Barry G. Latter, Lucy J. Ventress, Anne Boynard, Christian Retscher, Wuhu Feng, Richard Rigby, Sandip S. Dhomse, Catherine Wespes, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3613–3626, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3613-2024, 2024
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Tropospheric ozone is an important short-lived climate forcer which influences the incoming solar short-wave radiation and the outgoing long-wave radiation in the atmosphere (8–15 km) where the balance between the two yields a net positive (i.e. warming) effect at the surface. Overall, we find that the tropospheric ozone radiative effect ranges between 1.21 and 1.26 W m−2 with a negligible trend (2008–2017), suggesting that tropospheric ozone influences on climate have remained stable with time.
Emily Dowd, Alistair J. Manning, Bryn Orth-Lashley, Marianne Girard, James France, Rebecca E. Fisher, Dave Lowry, Mathias Lanoisellé, Joseph R. Pitt, Kieran M. Stanley, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Glen Thistlethwaite, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Emanuel Gloor, and Chris Wilson
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1599–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1599-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1599-2024, 2024
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We provide the first validation of the satellite-derived emission estimates using surface-based mobile greenhouse gas surveys of an active gas leak detected near Cheltenham, UK. GHGSat’s emission estimates broadly agree with the surface-based mobile survey and steps were taken to fix the leak, highlighting the importance of satellite data in identifying emissions and helping to reduce our human impact on climate change.
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 191–213, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, 2024
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Injecting SO2 into the lower stratosphere can temporarily reduce global mean temperature and mitigate some risks associated with climate change, but injecting it at different latitudes and seasons would have different impacts. This study introduces new stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies and explores the importance of the choice of SAI strategy, demonstrating that it notably affects the distribution of aerosol cloud, injection efficiency, and various surface climate impacts.
Lily Gouldsbrough, Ryan Hossaini, Emma Eastoe, Paul J. Young, and Massimo Vieno
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3163–3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3163-2024, 2024
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High-resolution spatial fields of surface ozone are used to understand spikes in ozone concentration and predict their impact on public health. Such fields are routinely output from complex mathematical models for atmospheric conditions. These outputs are on a coarse spatial resolution and the highest concentrations tend to be biased. Using a novel data-driven machine learning methodology, we show how such output can be corrected to produce fields with both lower bias and higher resolution.
Martyn P. Chipperfield and Slimane Bekki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2783–2802, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2783-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2783-2024, 2024
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We give a personal perspective on recent issues related to the depletion of stratospheric ozone and some newly emerging challenges. We first provide a brief review of historic work on understanding the ozone layer and review ozone recovery from the effects of halogenated source gases and the Montreal Protocol. We then discuss the recent observations of ozone depletion from Australian fires in early 2020 and the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022.
Ailish M. Graham, Richard J. Pope, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip S. Dhomse, Matilda Pimlott, Wuhu Feng, Vikas Singh, Ying Chen, Oliver Wild, Ranjeet Sokhi, and Gufran Beig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 789–806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-789-2024, 2024
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Our paper uses novel satellite datasets and high-resolution emissions datasets alongside a back-trajectory model to investigate the balance of local and external sources influencing NOx air pollution changes in Delhi. We find in the post-monsoon season that NOx from local and non-local transport emissions contributes most to poor air quality in Delhi. Therefore, air quality mitigation strategies in Delhi and surrounding regions are used to control this issue.
Andrea Pazmiño, Florence Goutail, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Alain Hauchecorne, Jean-Pierre Pommereau, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, Franck Lefèvre, Audrey Lecouffe, Michel Van Roozendael, Nis Jepsen, Georg Hansen, Rigel Kivi, Kimberly Strong, and Kaley A. Walker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15655–15670, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15655-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15655-2023, 2023
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The vortex-averaged ozone loss over the last 3 decades is evaluated for both polar regions using the passive ozone tracer of the chemical transport model TOMCAT/SLIMCAT and total ozone observations from the SAOZ network and MSR2 reanalysis. Three metrics were developed to compute ozone trends since 2000. The study confirms the ozone recovery in the Antarctic and shows a potential sign of quantitative detection of ozone recovery in the Arctic that needs to be robustly confirmed in the future.
Richard J. Pope, Brian J. Kerridge, Richard Siddans, Barry G. Latter, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, Matilda A. Pimlott, Sandip S. Dhomse, Christian Retscher, and Richard Rigby
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14933–14947, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14933-2023, 2023
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Ozone is a potent air pollutant, and we present the first study to investigate long-term changes in lower tropospheric column ozone (LTCO3) from space. We have constructed a merged LTCO3 dataset from GOME-1, SCIAMACHY and OMI between 1996 and 2017. Comparing LTCO3 between the 1996–2000 and 2013–2017 5-year averages, we find significant positive increases in the tropics/sub-tropics, while in the northern mid-latitudes, we find small-scale differences.
Sandip S. Dhomse and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5105–5120, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5105-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5105-2023, 2023
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There are no long-term stratospheric profile data sets for two very important greenhouse gases: methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Along with radiative feedback, these species play an important role in controlling ozone loss in the stratosphere. Here, we use machine learning to fuse satellite measurements with a chemical model to construct long-term gap-free profile data sets for CH4 and N2O. We aim to construct similar data sets for other important trace gases (e.g. O3, Cly, NOy species).
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, Daniele Visioni, Yan Zhang, Ben Kravitz, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13665–13684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, 2023
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We use a state-of-the-art Earth system model and a set of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies to achieve the same level of global mean surface cooling through different combinations of location and/or timing of the injection. We demonstrate that the choice of SAI strategy can lead to contrasting impacts on stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures, circulation, and chemistry (including stratospheric ozone), thereby leading to different impacts on regional surface climate.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Ryan Hossaini, N. Luke Abraham, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6187–6209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6187-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6187-2023, 2023
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Development and performance of the new DEST chemistry scheme of UM–UKCA is described. The scheme extends the standard StratTrop scheme by including important updates to the halogen chemistry, thus allowing process-oriented studies of stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery, including impacts from both controlled long-lived ozone-depleting substances and emerging issues around uncontrolled, very short-lived substances. It will thus aid studies in support of future ozone assessment reports.
Matthew Henry, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Mohit Dalvi, Alice Wells, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Walker Lee, and Mari R. Tye
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13369–13385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, 2023
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Solar climate interventions, such as injecting sulfur in the stratosphere, may be used to offset some of the adverse impacts of global warming. We use two independently developed Earth system models to assess the uncertainties around stratospheric sulfur injections. The injection locations and amounts are optimized to maintain the same pattern of surface temperature. While both models show reduced warming, the change in rainfall patterns (even without sulfur injections) is uncertain.
Richard J. Pope, Brian J. Kerridge, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Richard Siddans, Barry G. Latter, Lucy J. Ventress, Matilda A. Pimlott, Wuhu Feng, Edward Comyn-Platt, Garry D. Hayman, Stephen R. Arnold, and Ailish M. Graham
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13235–13253, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13235-2023, 2023
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In the summer of 2018, Europe experienced several persistent large-scale ozone (O3) pollution episodes. Satellite tropospheric O3 and surface O3 data recorded substantial enhancements in 2018 relative to other years. Targeted model simulations showed that meteorological processes and emissions controlled the elevated surface O3, while mid-tropospheric O3 enhancements were dominated by stratospheric O3 intrusion and advection of North Atlantic O3-rich air masses into Europe.
Yajuan Li, Sandip S. Dhomse, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, Jianchun Bian, Yuan Xia, and Dong Guo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13029–13047, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13029-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13029-2023, 2023
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For the first time a regularized multivariate regression model is used to estimate stratospheric ozone trends. Regularized regression avoids the over-fitting issue due to correlation among explanatory variables. We demonstrate that there are considerable differences in satellite-based and chemical-model-based ozone trends, highlighting large uncertainties in our understanding about ozone variability. We argue that caution is needed when interpreting results with different methods and datasets.
Michael P. Cartwright, Richard J. Pope, Jeremy J. Harrison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Chris Wilson, Wuhu Feng, David P. Moore, and Parvadha Suntharalingam
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10035–10056, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10035-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10035-2023, 2023
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A 3-D chemical transport model, TOMCAT, is used to simulate global atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (OCS) distribution. Modelled OCS compares well with satellite observations of OCS from limb-sounding satellite observations. Model simulations also compare adequately with surface and atmospheric observations and suitably capture the seasonality of OCS and background concentrations.
Luana S. Basso, Chris Wilson, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Graciela Tejada, Henrique L. G. Cassol, Egídio Arai, Mathew Williams, T. Luke Smallman, Wouter Peters, Stijn Naus, John B. Miller, and Manuel Gloor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9685–9723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9685-2023, 2023
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The Amazon’s carbon balance may have changed due to forest degradation, deforestation and warmer climate. We used an atmospheric model and atmospheric CO2 observations to quantify Amazonian carbon emissions (2010–2018). The region was a small carbon source to the atmosphere, mostly due to fire emissions. Forest uptake compensated for ~ 50 % of the fire emissions, meaning that the remaining forest is still a small carbon sink. We found no clear evidence of weakening carbon uptake over the period.
Emily Dowd, Chris Wilson, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Emanuel Gloor, Alistair Manning, and Ruth Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7363–7382, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7363-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7363-2023, 2023
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Surface observations of methane show that the seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) of methane is decreasing in the northern high latitudes (NHLs) but increased globally (1995–2020). The NHL decrease is counterintuitive, as we expect the SCA to increase with increasing concentrations. We use a chemical transport model to investigate changes in SCA in the NHLs. We find well-mixed methane and changes in emissions from Canada, the Middle East, and Europe are the largest contributors to the SCA in NHLs.
Peter Joyce, Cristina Ruiz Villena, Yahui Huang, Alex Webb, Manuel Gloor, Fabien H. Wagner, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Rocío Barrio Guilló, Chris Wilson, and Hartmut Boesch
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2627–2640, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2627-2023, 2023
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Methane emissions are responsible for a lot of the warming caused by the greenhouse effect, much of which comes from a small number of point sources. We can identify methane point sources by analysing satellite data, but it requires a lot of time invested by experts and is prone to very high errors. Here, we produce a neural network that can automatically identify methane point sources and estimate the mass of methane that is being released per hour and are able to do so with far smaller errors.
Antonio G. Bruno, Jeremy J. Harrison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, David P. Moore, Richard J. Pope, Christopher Wilson, Emmanuel Mahieu, and Justus Notholt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4849–4861, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4849-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4849-2023, 2023
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A 3-D chemical transport model, TOMCAT; satellite data; and ground-based observations have been used to investigate hydrogen cyanide (HCN) variability. We found that the oxidation by O(1D) drives the HCN loss in the middle stratosphere and the currently JPL-recommended OH reaction rate overestimates HCN atmospheric loss. We also evaluated two different ocean uptake schemes. We found them to be unrealistic, and we need to scale these schemes to obtain good agreement with HCN observations.
Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Walker R. Lee, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 663–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, 2023
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The paper constitutes Part 1 of a study performing a first systematic inter-model comparison of the atmospheric responses to stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (SAIs) at various latitudes as simulated by three state-of-the-art Earth system models. We identify similarities and differences in the modeled aerosol burden, investigate the differences in the aerosol approaches between the models, and ultimately show the differences produced in surface climate, temperature and precipitation.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, James M. Haywood, Jadwiga Richter, Douglas G. MacMartin, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 687–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, 2023
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Building on Part 1 of this two-part study, we demonstrate the role of biases in climatological circulation and specific aspects of model microphysics in driving the differences in simulated sulfate distributions amongst three Earth system models. We then characterize the simulated changes in stratospheric and free-tropospheric temperatures, ozone, water vapor, and large-scale circulation, elucidating the role of the above aspects in the surface responses discussed in Part 1.
Robert J. Parker, Chris Wilson, Edward Comyn-Platt, Garry Hayman, Toby R. Marthews, A. Anthony Bloom, Mark F. Lunt, Nicola Gedney, Simon J. Dadson, Joe McNorton, Neil Humpage, Hartmut Boesch, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Paul I. Palmer, and Dai Yamazaki
Biogeosciences, 19, 5779–5805, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5779-2022, 2022
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Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane, one of the most important climate gases. The JULES land surface model simulates these emissions. We use satellite data to evaluate how well JULES reproduces the methane seasonal cycle over different tropical wetlands. It performs well for most regions; however, it struggles for some African wetlands influenced heavily by river flooding. We explain the reasons for these deficiencies and highlight how future development will improve these areas.
Markus Jesswein, Rafael P. Fernandez, Lucas Berná, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Ryan Hossaini, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, Elliot L. Atlas, Donald R. Blake, Stephen Montzka, Timo Keber, Tanja Schuck, Thomas Wagenhäuser, and Andreas Engel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15049–15070, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15049-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15049-2022, 2022
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This study presents the global and seasonal distribution of the two major brominated short-lived substances CH2Br2 and CHBr3 in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere based on observations from several aircraft campaigns. They show similar seasonality for both hemispheres, except in the respective hemispheric autumn lower stratosphere. A comparison with the TOMCAT and CAM-Chem models shows good agreement in the annual mean but larger differences in the seasonal consideration.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Ryan Hossaini, Martyn P. Chipperfield, N. Luke Abraham, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10657–10676, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10657-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric impacts of chlorinated very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLS) over the first two decades of the 21st century are assessed using the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model. Stratospheric input of Cl from Cl-VSLS is estimated at ~130 ppt in 2019. The use of model set-up with constrained meteorology significantly increases the abundance of Cl-VSLS in the lower stratosphere relative to the free-running set-up. The growth in Cl-VSLS emissions significantly impacted recent HCl and COCl2 trends.
Yajuan Li, Sandip S. Dhomse, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, Andreas Chrysanthou, Yuan Xia, and Dong Guo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10635–10656, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10635-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10635-2022, 2022
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Chemical transport models forced with (re)analysis meteorological fields are ideally suited for interpreting the influence of important physical processes on the ozone variability. We use TOMCAT forced by ECMWF ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis data sets to investigate the effects of reanalysis forcing fields on ozone changes. Our results show that models forced by ERA5 reanalyses may not yet be capable of reproducing observed changes in stratospheric ozone, particularly in the lower stratosphere.
Matilda A. Pimlott, Richard J. Pope, Brian J. Kerridge, Barry G. Latter, Diane S. Knappett, Dwayne E. Heard, Lucy J. Ventress, Richard Siddans, Wuhu Feng, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10467–10488, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10467-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10467-2022, 2022
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We present a new method to derive global information of the hydroxyl radical (OH), an important atmospheric oxidant. OH controls the lifetime of trace gases important to air quality and climate. We use satellite observations of ozone, carbon monoxide, methane and water vapour in a simple expression to derive OH around 3–4 km altitude. The derived OH compares well to model and aircraft OH data. We then apply the method to 10 years of satellite data to study the inter-annual variability of OH.
Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Andy Jones, James Haywood, Roland Séférian, Pierre Nabat, Olivier Boucher, Ewa Monica Bednarz, and Ulrike Niemeier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4557–4579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, 2022
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This study assesses the impacts of climate interventions, using stratospheric sulfate aerosol and solar dimming on stratospheric ozone, based on three Earth system models with interactive stratospheric chemistry. The climate interventions have been applied to a high emission (baseline) scenario in order to reach global surface temperatures of a medium emission scenario. We find significant increases and decreases in total column ozone, depending on regions and seasons.
Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz, Alessio Bozzo, Nicholas Byrne, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Michail Diamantakis, Johannes Flemming, Lesley J. Gray, Robin J. Hogan, Luke Jones, Linus Magnusson, Inna Polichtchouk, Theodore G. Shepherd, Nils Wedi, and Antje Weisheimer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4277–4302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, 2022
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The stratosphere is emerging as one of the keys to improve tropospheric weather and climate predictions. This study provides evidence of the role the stratospheric ozone layer plays in improving weather predictions at different timescales. Using a new ozone modelling approach suitable for high-resolution global models that provide operational forecasts from days to seasons, we find significant improvements in stratospheric meteorological fields and stratosphere–troposphere coupling.
Richard J. Pope, Rebecca Kelly, Eloise A. Marais, Ailish M. Graham, Chris Wilson, Jeremy J. Harrison, Savio J. A. Moniz, Mohamed Ghalaieny, Steve R. Arnold, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4323–4338, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4323-2022, 2022
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Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are potent air pollutants which directly impact on human health. In this study, we use satellite nitrogen dioxide (NO2) data to evaluate the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the UK official NOx emissions inventory, with reasonable agreement. We also derived satellite-based NOx emissions for several UK cities. In the case of London and Birmingham, the NAEI NOx emissions are potentially too low by >50%.
Piera Raspollini, Enrico Arnone, Flavio Barbara, Massimo Bianchini, Bruno Carli, Simone Ceccherini, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Angelika Dehn, Stefano Della Fera, Bianca Maria Dinelli, Anu Dudhia, Jean-Marie Flaud, Marco Gai, Michael Kiefer, Manuel López-Puertas, David P. Moore, Alessandro Piro, John J. Remedios, Marco Ridolfi, Harjinder Sembhi, Luca Sgheri, and Nicola Zoppetti
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 1871–1901, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1871-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1871-2022, 2022
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The MIPAS instrument onboard the ENVISAT satellite provided 10 years of measurements of the atmospheric emission al limb that allow for the retrieval of latitude- and altitude-resolved atmospheric composition. We describe the improvements implemented in the retrieval algorithm used for the full mission reanalysis, which allows for the generation of the global distributions of 21 atmospheric constituents plus temperature with increased accuracy with respect to previously generated data.
Sandip S. Dhomse, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, Ryan Hossaini, Graham W. Mann, Michelle L. Santee, and Mark Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 903–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-903-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-903-2022, 2022
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Solar flux variations associated with 11-year sunspot cycle is believed to exert important external climate forcing. As largest variations occur at shorter wavelengths such as ultra-violet part of the solar spectrum, associated changes in stratospheric ozone are thought to provide direct evidence for solar climate interaction. Until now, most of the studies reported double-peak structured solar cycle signal (SCS), but relatively new satellite data suggest only single-peak-structured SCS.
Sandip S. Dhomse, Carlo Arosio, Wuhu Feng, Alexei Rozanov, Mark Weber, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5711–5729, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5711-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5711-2021, 2021
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High-quality long-term ozone profile data sets are key to estimating short- and long-term ozone variability. Almost all the satellite (and chemical model) data sets show some kind of bias with respect to each other. This is because of differences in measurement methodologies as well as simplified processes in the models. We use satellite data sets and chemical model output to generate 42 years of ozone profile data sets using a random-forest machine-learning algorithm that is named ML-TOMCAT.
Paul D. Hamer, Virginie Marécal, Ryan Hossaini, Michel Pirre, Gisèle Krysztofiak, Franziska Ziska, Andreas Engel, Stephan Sala, Timo Keber, Harald Bönisch, Elliot Atlas, Kirstin Krüger, Martyn Chipperfield, Valery Catoire, Azizan A. Samah, Marcel Dorf, Phang Siew Moi, Hans Schlager, and Klaus Pfeilsticker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16955–16984, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16955-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16955-2021, 2021
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Bromoform is a stratospheric ozone-depleting gas released by seaweed and plankton transported to the stratosphere via convection in the tropics. We study the chemical interactions of bromoform and its derivatives within convective clouds using a cloud-scale model and observations. Our findings are that soluble bromine gases are efficiently washed out and removed within the convective clouds and that most bromine is transported vertically to the upper troposphere in the form of bromoform.
Meike K. Rotermund, Vera Bense, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Andreas Engel, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Peter Hoor, Tilman Hüneke, Timo Keber, Flora Kluge, Benjamin Schreiner, Tanja Schuck, Bärbel Vogel, Andreas Zahn, and Klaus Pfeilsticker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15375–15407, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15375-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15375-2021, 2021
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Airborne total bromine (Brtot) and tracer measurements suggest Brtot-rich air masses persistently protruded into the lower stratosphere (LS), creating a high Brtot region over the North Atlantic in fall 2017. The main source is via isentropic transport by the Asian monsoon and to a lesser extent transport across the extratropical tropopause as quantified by a Lagrange model. The transport of Brtot via Central American hurricanes is also observed. Lastly, the impact of Brtot on LS O3 is assessed.
Chris Wilson, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Manuel Gloor, Robert J. Parker, Hartmut Boesch, Joey McNorton, Luciana V. Gatti, John B. Miller, Luana S. Basso, and Sarah A. Monks
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10643–10669, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10643-2021, 2021
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Methane (CH4) is an important greenhouse gas emitted from wetlands like those found in the basin of the Amazon River. Using an atmospheric model and observations from GOSAT, we quantified CH4 emissions from Amazonia during the previous decade. We found that the largest emissions came from a region in the eastern basin and that emissions there were rising faster than in other areas of South America. This finding was supported by CH4 observations made on aircraft within the basin.
Akash Biswal, Vikas Singh, Shweta Singh, Amit P. Kesarkar, Khaiwal Ravindra, Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip S. Dhomse, Richard J. Pope, Tanbir Singh, and Suman Mor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5235–5251, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5235-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5235-2021, 2021
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Satellite and surface observations show a reduction in NO2 levels over India during the lockdown compared to business-as-usual years. A substantial reduction, proportional to the population, was observed over the urban areas. The changes in NO2 levels at the surface during the lockdown appear to be present in the satellite observations. However, TROPOMI showed a better correlation with surface NO2 and was more sensitive to the changes than OMI because of the finer resolution.
Cited articles
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Ball, W. T., Alsing, J., Mortlock, D. J., Staehelin, J., Haigh, J. D., Peter, T., Tummon, F., Stübi, R., Stenke, A., Anderson, J., Bourassa, A., Davis, S. M., Degenstein, D., Frith, S., Froidevaux, L., Roth, C., Sofieva, V., Wang, R., Wild, J., Yu, P., Ziemke, J. R., and Rozanov, E. V.: Evidence for a continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsetting ozone layer recovery, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1379–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1379-2018, 2018.
Ball, W. T., Alsing, J., Staehelin, J., Davis, S. M., Froidevaux, L., and Peter, T.: Stratospheric ozone trends for 1985–2018: sensitivity to recent large variability, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12731–12748, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12731-2019, 2019.
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Bednarz, E. M., Hossaini, R., Chipperfield, M. P., Abraham, N. L., and Braesicke, P.: Atmospheric impacts of chlorinated very short-lived substances over the recent past – Part 1: Stratospheric chlorine budget and the role of transport, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10657–10676, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10657-2022, 2022.
Bednarz, E. M., Hossaini, R., Abraham, N. L., and Chipperfield, M. P.: Description and evaluation of the new UM–UKCA (vn11.0) Double Extended Stratospheric–Tropospheric (DEST vn1.0) scheme for comprehensive modelling of halogen chemistry in the stratosphere, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6187–6209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6187-2023, 2023.
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Feng, Y., Bie, P., Wang, Z., Wang, L., and Zhang, J.: Bottom-up anthropogenic dichloromethane emission estimates from China for the period 2005–2016 and predictions of future emissions, Atmos. Environ., 186, 241–247, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.05.039, 2018.
Feng, W., Dhomse, S. S., Arosio, C., Weber, M., Burrows, J. P., Santee, M. L., and Chipperfield, M. P.: Arctic ozone depletion in 2019/20: Roles of chemistry, dynamics and the Montreal Protocol, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL091911, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091911, 2021.
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Hossaini, R., Atlas, E., Dhomse, S. S., Chipperfield, M. P., Bernath, P. F., Fernando, A. M., Mühle, J., Leeson, A. A., Montzka, S. A., Feng, W., Harrison, J. J., Krummel, P., Vollmer, M. K., Reimann, S., O'Doherty, S., Young, D., Maione, M., Arduini, J., and Lunder, C. R.: Recent trends in stratospheric chlorine from very short-lived substances, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 2318–2335, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029400, 2019.
Hossaini, R., Chipperfield, M. P., Montzka, S. A., Leeson, A. A., Dhomse, S., and Pyle, J. A.: The increasing threat to stratospheric ozone from dichloromethane, Nat. Commun., 8, 15962, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15962, 2017.
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Short summary
We quantify, for the first time, the time-varying impact of uncontrolled emissions of chlorinated very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLSs) on stratospheric ozone using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model. We demonstrate that Cl-VSLSs already have a non-negligible impact on stratospheric ozone, including a local reduction of up to ~7 DU in Arctic ozone in the cold winter of 2019/20, and any so future growth in emissions will continue to offset some of the benefits of the Montreal Protocol.
We quantify, for the first time, the time-varying impact of uncontrolled emissions of...
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