Articles | Volume 22, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9349-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9349-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Jul 2022
Research article |
| 20 Jul 2022
| 20 Jul 2022
Climate consequences of hydrogen emissions
Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY, USA
Steven P. Hamburg
Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY, USA
Related authors
Catherine C. Ivanovich, Ilissa B. Ocko, Pedro Piris-Cabezas, and Annie Petsonk
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14949–14965, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14949-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14949-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Paris Agreement set the goal of remaining well below a 2 °C global temperature rise, but it is unclear how future emissions from international shipping and aviation will contribute to this threshold. Here we estimate that the sectors' future emissions of carbon dioxide will contribute a combined 0.12 °C by the end of the century should no action be taken, but proposed mitigation policies have the potential to reduce this warming by almost 90 %.
Ilissa B. Ocko, Vaishali Naik, and David Paynter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15555–15568, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15555-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15555-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
As communities worldwide analyse options to reduce methane emissions from energy use, agriculture, and waste management, there is an immediate need to build confidence in rapid assessment tools other than standard climate metrics – which misrepresent impacts over all timescales. In this paper, we show that a simplified climate model can easily and rapidly provide scientifically robust climate responses to changes in methane emissions, thereby improving mitigation analysis and decision-making.
Ilissa B. Ocko and Paul A. Ginoux
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4451–4475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4451-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4451-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Human-made liquid and solid particles (aerosols) are abundant in the atmosphere and play a central role in climate change. Computer models are essential tools for understanding how aerosols impact the climate, but it is critical to evaluate a model's performance by comparing with observations. Here we analyze aerosol properties in two world-renowned models by comparing with ground-based and satellite instrument data. We find that comparisons with all available data is valuable and essential.
James P. Williams, Mark Omara, Anthony Himmelberger, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Katlyn MacKay, Joshua Benmergui, Maryann Sargent, Steven C. Wofsy, Steven P. Hamburg, and Ritesh Gautam
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1402, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We utilize peer-reviewed facility-level oil and gas methane emission rate data gathered in prior work to estimate the relative contributions of methane sources emitting at different emission rates in the United States. We find that the majority of total methane emissions in the US oil and gas sector stem from a large number of small sources emitting in aggregate, corroborating findings from several other studies.
Mark Omara, Ritesh Gautam, Madeleine A. O'Brien, Anthony Himmelberger, Alex Franco, Kelsey Meisenhelder, Grace Hauser, David R. Lyon, Apisada Chulakadabba, Christopher Chan Miller, Jonathan Franklin, Steven C. Wofsy, and Steven P. Hamburg
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3761–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We acquire, integrate, and analyze ~ 6 million geospatial oil and gas infrastructure data records based on information available in the public domain and develop an open-access global database including all the major oil and gas facility types that are important sources of methane emissions. This work helps fulfill a crucial geospatial data need, in support of the assessment, attribution, and mitigation of global oil and gas methane emissions at high resolution.
Lu Shen, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Tia R. Scarpelli, Alba Lorente, David Lyon, Jianxiong Sheng, Daniel J. Varon, Hannah Nesser, Zhen Qu, Xiao Lu, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Steven P. Hamburg, and Daniel J. Jacob
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11203–11215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11203-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11203-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use 22 months of TROPOMI satellite observations to quantity methane emissions from the oil (O) and natural gas (G) sector in the US and Canada at the scale of both individual basins as well as country-wide aggregates. We find that O/G-related methane emissions are underestimated in these inventories by 80 % for the US and 40 % for Canada, and 70 % of the underestimate in the US is from five O/G basins, including Permian, Haynesville, Anadarko, Eagle Ford, and Barnett.
David R. Lyon, Benjamin Hmiel, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Katherine A. Roberts, Zachary R. Barkley, Kenneth J. Davis, Natasha L. Miles, Vanessa C. Monteiro, Scott J. Richardson, Stephen Conley, Mackenzie L. Smith, Daniel J. Jacob, Lu Shen, Daniel J. Varon, Aijun Deng, Xander Rudelis, Nikhil Sharma, Kyle T. Story, Adam R. Brandt, Mary Kang, Eric A. Kort, Anthony J. Marchese, and Steven P. Hamburg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6605–6626, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6605-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6605-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Permian Basin (USA) is the world’s largest oil field. We use tower- and aircraft-based approaches to measure how methane emissions in the Permian Basin changed throughout 2020. In early 2020, 3.3 % of the region’s gas was emitted; then in spring 2020, the loss rate temporarily dropped to 1.9 % as oil price crashed. We find this short-term reduction to be a result of reduced well development, less gas flaring, and fewer abnormal events despite minimal reductions in oil and gas production.
Catherine C. Ivanovich, Ilissa B. Ocko, Pedro Piris-Cabezas, and Annie Petsonk
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14949–14965, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14949-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14949-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Paris Agreement set the goal of remaining well below a 2 °C global temperature rise, but it is unclear how future emissions from international shipping and aviation will contribute to this threshold. Here we estimate that the sectors' future emissions of carbon dioxide will contribute a combined 0.12 °C by the end of the century should no action be taken, but proposed mitigation policies have the potential to reduce this warming by almost 90 %.
Ilissa B. Ocko, Vaishali Naik, and David Paynter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15555–15568, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15555-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15555-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
As communities worldwide analyse options to reduce methane emissions from energy use, agriculture, and waste management, there is an immediate need to build confidence in rapid assessment tools other than standard climate metrics – which misrepresent impacts over all timescales. In this paper, we show that a simplified climate model can easily and rapidly provide scientifically robust climate responses to changes in methane emissions, thereby improving mitigation analysis and decision-making.
Ilissa B. Ocko and Paul A. Ginoux
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4451–4475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4451-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4451-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Human-made liquid and solid particles (aerosols) are abundant in the atmosphere and play a central role in climate change. Computer models are essential tools for understanding how aerosols impact the climate, but it is critical to evaluate a model's performance by comparing with observations. Here we analyze aerosol properties in two world-renowned models by comparing with ground-based and satellite instrument data. We find that comparisons with all available data is valuable and essential.
Related subject area
Subject: Radiation | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Improved calculation of single-scattering properties of frozen droplets and frozen-droplet aggregates observed in deep convective clouds
Influence of cloudy and clear-sky partitions, aerosols, and geometry on the recent variability in surface solar irradiance components in northern France
Saharan dust impact on radiative heating rate errors inherent in reanalysis data in the African easterly wave development region
Combining observations and simulations to investigate the small-scale variability of surface solar irradiance under continental cumulus clouds
The impact of coupled 3D shortwave radiative transfer on surface radiation and cumulus clouds over land
Atmospheric cloud-radiative heating in CMIP6 and observations and its response to surface warming
Trends in observed surface solar radiation and their causes in Brazil in the first 2 decades of the 21st century
Modeling study of the snow darkening effect by black carbon deposition over the Arctic during the melting period
Spatial variability and future evolution of surface solar radiation over Northern France and Benelux: a regional climate model approach
A sensitivity study on radiative effects due to the parameterization of dust optical properties in models
Uncertainties in cloud-radiative heating within an idealized extratropical cyclone
Evaluation of downward and upward solar irradiances simulated by the Integrated Forecasting System of ECMWF using airborne observations above Arctic low-level clouds
A colorful look at climate sensitivity
Sensitivity of cirrus and contrail radiative effect on cloud microphysical and environmental parameters
Evaluation of liquid cloud albedo susceptibility in E3SM using coupled eastern North Atlantic surface and satellite retrievals
Constraints on simulated past Arctic amplification and lapse rate feedback from observations
Comparison of methods to estimate aerosol effective radiative forcings in climate models
Montreal Protocol's impact on the ozone layer and climate
Opinion: The scientific and community-building roles of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) – past, present, and future
Impacts of reductions in non-methane short-lived climate forcers on future climate extremes and the resulting population exposure risks in eastern and southern Asia
Investigating the radiative effect of Arctic cirrus measured in situ during the winter 2015–2016
Dependence of strategic solar climate intervention on background scenario and model physics
Combining short-range dispersion simulations with fine-scale meteorological ensembles: probabilistic indicators and evaluation during a 85Kr field campaign
Investigating the impact of Saharan dust aerosols on analyses and forecasts of African easterly waves by constraining aerosol effects in radiance data assimilation
Distinct surface response to black carbon aerosols
Estimating the potential cooling effect of cirrus thinning achieved via the seeding approach
Impacts of multi-layer overlap on contrail radiative forcing
Bias in CMIP6 models as compared to observed regional dimming and brightening
A test of the ability of current bulk optical models to represent the radiative properties of cirrus cloud across the mid- and far-infrared
The incorporation of the Tripleclouds concept into the δ-Eddington two-stream radiation scheme: solver characterization and its application to shallow cumulus clouds
Radiative heating rate profiles over the southeast Atlantic Ocean during the 2016 and 2017 biomass burning seasons
Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models
Response of surface shortwave cloud radiative effect to greenhouse gases and aerosols and its impact on summer maximum temperature
Combining atmospheric and snow radiative transfer models to assess the solar radiative effects of black carbon in the Arctic
Accurate 3-D radiative transfer simulation of spectral solar irradiance during the total solar eclipse of 21 August 2017
Quantifying the bias of radiative heating rates in numerical weather prediction models for shallow cumulus clouds
The climate effects of increasing ocean albedo: an idealized representation of solar geoengineering
Changes in clouds and thermodynamics under solar geoengineering and implications for required solar reduction
Radiative impact of an extreme Arctic biomass-burning event
Contrails and their impact on shortwave radiation and photovoltaic power production – a regional model study
The influence of internal variability on Earth's energy balance framework and implications for estimating climate sensitivity
Insights into the diurnal cycle of global Earth outgoing radiation using a numerical weather prediction model
Determining the infrared radiative effects of Saharan dust: a radiative transfer modelling study based on vertically resolved measurements at Lampedusa
The early summertime Saharan heat low: sensitivity of the radiation budget and atmospheric heating to water vapour and dust aerosol
The role of 1-D and 3-D radiative heating in the organization of shallow cumulus convection and the formation of cloud streets
Modeling the erythemal surface diffuse irradiance fraction for Badajoz, Spain
Disk and circumsolar radiances in the presence of ice clouds
Effects of 3-D thermal radiation on the development of a shallow cumulus cloud field
Regional and seasonal radiative forcing by perturbations to aerosol and ozone precursor emissions
The spectral signature of cloud spatial structure in shortwave irradiance
Jeonggyu Kim, Sungmin Park, Greg M. McFarquhar, Anthony J. Baran, Joo Wan Cha, Kyoungmi Lee, Seoung Soo Lee, Chang Hoon Jung, Kyo-Sun Sunny Lim, and Junshik Um
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12707–12726, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed idealized models to represent the shapes of ice particles found in deep convective clouds and calculated their single-scattering properties. By comparing these results with in situ measurements, we discovered that a mixture of shape models matches in situ measurements more closely than single-form models or aggregate models. This finding has important implications for enhancing the simulation of single-scattering properties of ice crystals in deep convective clouds.
Gabriel Chesnoiu, Nicolas Ferlay, Isabelle Chiapello, Frédérique Auriol, Diane Catalfamo, Mathieu Compiègne, Thierry Elias, and Isabelle Jankowiak
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12375–12407, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The measured ground-based surface solar irradiance variability and its sensitivity to scene parameters are analysed with a filtering of sky conditions at a given site. Its multivariate analysis is applied to observed trends over 2010–2022. The recorded values show, in addition to the dominant effects of cloud occurrence, the variable effects of aerosol and geometry. Clear-sun-with-cloud situations are highlighted by SSI levels close to those of aerosol- and cloud-free situations.
Ruby W. Burgess and Mayra I. Oyola-Merced
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12183–12201, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12183-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12183-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how aerosols affect atmospheric heating over African easterly waves (AEWs). Using data from NASA's aircraft and outputs of reanalysis models, the research focuses on days with both Saharan dust and AEWs. Using a radiative transfer model, the study reveals significant differences in heating rates, emphasizing challenges in accurately representing aerosol effects in the atmosphere and underscoring the need for improved aerosol representation in weather models.
Zili He, Quentin Libois, Najda Villefranque, Hartwig Deneke, Jonas Witthuhn, and Fleur Couvreux
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11391–11408, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11391-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses observations and simulations to analyze how cumulus clouds affect spacial solar radiation variability on the ground. Results show that the simulations reproduce the observations well and improve understanding of cloud impacts on radiation. The research also indicates that a few strategically placed sensors, capitalizing on measurement timing, can effectively measure these variations, aiding in the development of detailed weather prediction models.
Mirjam Tijhuis, Bart J. H. van Stratum, and Chiel C. van Heerwaarden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10567–10582, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Radiative transfer in the atmosphere is a 3D processes, which is often modelled in 1D for computational efficiency. We studied the differences between using 1D and 3D radiative transfer. With 3D radiation, larger clouds that contain more liquid water develop. However, they cover roughly the same part of the sky, and the average total radiation at the surface is nearly unchanged. The increase in cloud size might be important for weather models, as it can impact the formation of rain, for example.
Aiko Voigt, Stefanie North, Blaž Gasparini, and Seung-Hee Ham
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9749–9775, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9749-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9749-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds shape weather and climate by interacting with photons, which changes temperatures within the atmosphere. We assess how well CMIP6 climate models capture this radiative heating by clouds within the atmosphere. While we find large differences among models, especially in cold regions of the atmosphere with abundant ice clouds, we also demonstrate that physical understanding allows us to predict the response of clouds and their radiative heating near the tropopause to climate change.
Lucas Ferreira Correa, Doris Folini, Boriana Chtirkova, and Martin Wild
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8797–8819, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8797-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8797-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the causes of the decadal trends of solar radiation measured at 34 stations in Brazil in the first 2 decades of the 21st century. We observed strong negative trends in north and northeast Brazil associated with changes in both atmospheric absorption (anthropogenic) and cloud cover (natural). In other parts of the country no strong trends were observed as a result of competing effects. This provides a better understanding of the energy balance in the region.
Zilu Zhang, Libo Zhou, and Meigen Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1717, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By integrating the SNICAR model with Polar-WRF we find that 50 ng g-1 black carbon (BC) deposition decreases snow albedo, increasing radiative forcing (RF) by 1–4 W m-2, especially in Greenland, Baffin Island, and East Siberia. The impact is strongly linked to BC mass, with deep snowpacks showing greater sensitivity. Snow melt and land‒atmosphere interactions are crucial. High-resolution modeling is necessary to better understand these effects on Arctic climate change.
Gabriel Chesnoiu, Isabelle Chiapello, Nicolas Ferlay, Pierre Nabat, Marc Mallet, and Véronique Riffault
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1174, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
ALADIN regional climate model at 12.5 km resolution allows to evaluate the evolution of surface solar radiation (SSR) and key associated atmospheric parameters. Over the Northern France/Benelux region, influenced by anthropogenic aerosols and cloudy conditions, regional evaluation of recent hindcast simulations shows satisfying results, and high spatial variability. Future SSR evolution by the end of the century for two contrasting CMIP6 scenarios highlight large decreases of SSR for SSP3-7.0.
Ilias Fountoulakis, Alexandra Tsekeri, Stelios Kazadzis, Vassilis Amiridis, Angelos Nersesian, Maria Tsichla, Emmanouil Proestakis, Antonis Gkikas, Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou, Vasileios Barlakas, Claudia Emde, and Bernhard Mayer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4915–4948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4915-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4915-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we provide an assessment, through a sensitivity study, of the limitations of models to calculate the dust direct radiative effect (DRE) due to the underrepresentation of its size, refractive index (RI), and shape. Our results indicate the necessity of including more realistic sizes and RIs for dust particles in dust models, in order to derive better estimations of the dust direct radiative effects.
Behrooz Keshtgar, Aiko Voigt, Bernhard Mayer, and Corinna Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4751–4769, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4751-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cloud-radiative heating (CRH) affects extratropical cyclones but is uncertain in weather and climate models. We provide a framework to quantify uncertainties in CRH within an extratropical cyclone due to four factors and show that the parameterization of ice optical properties contributes significantly to uncertainty in CRH. We also argue that ice optical properties, by affecting CRH on spatial scales of 100 km, are relevant for the large-scale dynamics of extratropical cyclones.
Hanno Müller, André Ehrlich, Evelyn Jäkel, Johannes Röttenbacher, Benjamin Kirbus, Michael Schäfer, Robin J. Hogan, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4157–4175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A weather model is used to compare solar radiation with measurements from an aircraft campaign in the Arctic. Model and observations agree on the downward radiation but show differences in the radiation reflected by the surface and the clouds, which in the model is too low above sea ice and too high above open ocean. The model–observation bias is reduced above open ocean by a realistic fraction of clouds and less cloud liquid water and above sea ice by less dark sea ice and more cloud droplets.
Bjorn Stevens and Lukas Kluft
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14673–14689, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14673-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14673-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A simple model is introduced to account for the spectral diversity of radiant energy transfer. It provides an improved basis for assessing the different ways in which clouds influence Earth’s climate sensitivity, demonstrating how many cloud effects depend on the existing cloud climatology. Given existing assessments of changes in cloud albedo with warming, it is determined that clouds reduce Earth's climate sensitivity as compared to what it would be in a counterfactual world without clouds.
Kevin Wolf, Nicolas Bellouin, and Olivier Boucher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14003–14037, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14003-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14003-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cirrus and contrails considerably impact Earth's energy budget. Such ice clouds can have a positive (warming) or negative (cooling) net radiative effect (RE), which depends on cloud and ambient properties. The effect of eight parameters on the cloud RE is estimated. In total, 283 500 radiative transfer simulations have been performed, spanning the typical parameter ranges associated with cirrus and contrails. Specific cases are selected and discussed. The data set is publicly available.
Adam C. Varble, Po-Lun Ma, Matthew W. Christensen, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Shuaiqi Tang, and Jerome Fast
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13523–13553, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13523-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate how clouds change in response to changing atmospheric particle (aerosol) concentrations in a climate model and find that the model-predicted cloud brightness increases too much as aerosols increase because the cloud drop number increases too much. Excessive drizzle in the model mutes this difference. Many differences between observational and model estimates are explained by varying assumptions of how much liquid has been lost in clouds, which impacts the estimated cloud drop number.
Olivia Linke, Johannes Quaas, Finja Baumer, Sebastian Becker, Jan Chylik, Sandro Dahlke, André Ehrlich, Dörthe Handorf, Christoph Jacobi, Heike Kalesse-Los, Luca Lelli, Sina Mehrdad, Roel A. J. Neggers, Johannes Riebold, Pablo Saavedra Garfias, Niklas Schnierstein, Matthew D. Shupe, Chris Smith, Gunnar Spreen, Baptiste Verneuil, Kameswara S. Vinjamuri, Marco Vountas, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9963–9992, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lapse rate feedback (LRF) is a major driver of the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. It arises because the warming is stronger at the surface than aloft. Several processes can affect the LRF in the Arctic, such as the omnipresent temperature inversion. Here, we compare multimodel climate simulations to Arctic-based observations from a large research consortium to broaden our understanding of these processes, find synergy among them, and constrain the Arctic LRF and AA.
Mark D. Zelinka, Christopher J. Smith, Yi Qin, and Karl E. Taylor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8879–8898, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8879-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8879-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The primary uncertainty in how strongly Earth's climate has been perturbed by human activities comes from the unknown radiative impact of aerosol changes. Accurately quantifying these forcings – and their sub-components – in climate models is crucial for understanding the past and future simulated climate. In this study we describe biases in previously published estimates of aerosol radiative forcing in climate models and provide corrected estimates along with code for users to compute them.
Tatiana Egorova, Jan Sedlacek, Timofei Sukhodolov, Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Franziska Zilker, and Eugene Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5135–5147, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5135-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5135-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the climate and atmosphere benefits of the Montreal Protocol, simulated with the state-of-the-art Earth system model SOCOLv4.0. We have added to and confirmed the previous studies by showing that without the Montreal Protocol by the end of the 21st century there would be a dramatic reduction in the ozone layer as well as substantial perturbation of the essential climate variables in the troposphere caused by the warming from increasing ozone-depleting substances.
Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, Simone Tilmes, Jim Haywood, Olivier Boucher, Mark Lawrence, Peter Irvine, Ulrike Niemeier, Lili Xia, Gabriel Chiodo, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, John C. Moore, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5149–5176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Geoengineering indicates methods aiming to reduce the temperature of the planet by means of reflecting back a part of the incoming radiation before it reaches the surface or allowing more of the planetary radiation to escape into space. It aims to produce modelling experiments that are easy to reproduce and compare with different climate models, in order to understand the potential impacts of these techniques. Here we assess its past successes and failures and talk about its future.
Yingfang Li, Zhili Wang, Yadong Lei, Huizheng Che, and Xiaoye Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2499–2523, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2499-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2499-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Since few studies have assessed the impacts of future combined reductions in aerosols, ozone, and their precursors on future climate change, we use models with an interactive representation of tropospheric aerosols and atmospheric chemistry schemes to quantify the impact of their reductions on the Asian climate. Our results suggest that their reductions will exacerbate the warming effect caused by greenhouse gases, increasing future climate extremes and associated population exposure risk.
Andreas Marsing, Ralf Meerkötter, Romy Heller, Stefan Kaufmann, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, Martina Krämer, Christian Rolf, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 587–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-587-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-587-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We employ highly resolved aircraft measurements of profiles of the ice water content (IWC) in Arctic cirrus clouds in winter and spring, when solar irradiation is low. Using radiation transfer calculations, we assess the cloud radiative effect over different surfaces like snow or ocean. The variability in the IWC of the clouds affects their overall radiative effect and drives internal processes. This helps understand the role of cirrus in a rapidly changing Arctic environment.
John T. Fasullo and Jadwiga H. Richter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 163–182, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-163-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-163-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The continued high levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increase the likelihood that key climate warming thresholds will be exceeded in the coming decades. Here we examine a recently proposed geoengineering approach using two recently produced climate model experiments. We find the associated latitudinal distribution of aerosol mass to exhibit substantial uncertainty, suggesting the need for significant flexibility in the location and amount of aerosol delivery, if implemented.
Youness El-Ouartassy, Irène Korsakissok, Matthieu Plu, Olivier Connan, Laurent Descamps, and Laure Raynaud
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15793–15816, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15793-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work investigates the potential value of using fine-scale meteorological ensembles to represent the inherent meteorological uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion model outputs. Probabilistic scores were used to evaluate the probabilistic performance of dispersion ensembles, using an original dataset of new continuous 85Kr air concentration measurements and a well-known source term. The results show that the ensemble dispersion simulations perform better than deterministic ones.
Dustin Francis Phillip Grogan, Cheng-Hsuan Lu, Shih-Wei Wei, and Sheng-Po Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2385–2398, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2385-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that incorporating aerosols into satellite radiance calculations affects the representation of African easterly waves (AEWs), and their environment, over North Africa and the eastern Atlantic in a numerical weather model. These changes are driven by radiative effects of Saharan dust captured by the aerosol-affected radiances, which modify the initial fields and can improve the forecasting of AEWs.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Yuqiang Zhang, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gunnar Myhre, Gregory Faluvegi, Bjørn H. Samset, Timothy Andrews, Dirk Olivié, Toshihiko Takemura, and Xuhui Lee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13797–13809, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13797-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13797-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies showed that black carbon (BC) could warm the surface with decreased incoming radiation. With climate models, we found that the surface energy redistribution plays a more crucial role in surface temperature compared with other forcing agents. Though BC could reduce the surface heating, the energy dissipates less efficiently, which is manifested by reduced convective and evaporative cooling, thereby warming the surface.
Jiaojiao Liu and Xiangjun Shi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10609–10624, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10609-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10609-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Cirrus thinning, which reduces the warming effect of cirrus clouds, has been investigated as a new geoengineering approach. In this study, a flexible seeding method is used to exploit the potential cooling effect of cirrus thinning. Simulation results show that the seeding method is essential for estimating the cooling effect. Cirrus thinning with the flexible seeding method could produce a considerable cooling effect, which is much stronger than the fixed seeding method.
Inés Sanz-Morère, Sebastian D. Eastham, Florian Allroggen, Raymond L. Speth, and Steven R. H. Barrett
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1649–1681, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1649-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1649-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Contrails cause ~50 % of aviation climate impacts, but this is highly uncertain. This is partly due to the effect of overlap between contrails and other cloud layers. We developed a model to quantify this effect, finding that overlap with natural clouds increased contrails' radiative forcing in 2015. This suggests that cloud avoidance may help in reducing aviation's climate impacts. We also find that contrail–contrail overlap reduces impacts by ~3 %, increasing non-linearly with optical depth.
Kine Onsum Moseid, Michael Schulz, Trude Storelvmo, Ingeborg Rian Julsrud, Dirk Olivié, Pierre Nabat, Martin Wild, Jason N. S. Cole, Toshihiko Takemura, Naga Oshima, Susanne E. Bauer, and Guillaume Gastineau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 16023–16040, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-16023-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-16023-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we compare solar radiation at the surface from observations and Earth system models from 1961 to 2014. We find that the models do not reproduce the so-called
global dimmingas found in observations. Only model experiments with anthropogenic aerosol emissions display any dimming at all. The discrepancies between observations and models are largest in China, which we suggest is in part due to erroneous aerosol precursor emission inventories in the emission dataset used for CMIP6.
Richard J. Bantges, Helen E. Brindley, Jonathan E. Murray, Alan E. Last, Jacqueline E. Russell, Cathryn Fox, Stuart Fox, Chawn Harlow, Sebastian J. O'Shea, Keith N. Bower, Bryan A. Baum, Ping Yang, Hilke Oetjen, and Juliet C. Pickering
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12889–12903, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12889-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12889-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how ice clouds influence the Earth's energy balance remains a key challenge for predicting the future climate. These clouds are ubiquitous and are composed of ice crystals that have complex shapes that are incredibly difficult to model. This work exploits new measurements of the Earth's emitted thermal energy made from instruments flown on board an aircraft to test how well the latest ice cloud models can represent these clouds. Results indicate further developments are required.
Nina Črnivec and Bernhard Mayer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10733–10755, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10733-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10733-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Unresolved interaction between clouds and atmospheric radiation is a source of uncertainty in weather and climate models. The present study highlights the potential of the state-of-the-art Tripleclouds radiative solver for shallow cumulus clouds, exposing the significance of properly representing subgrid cloud horizontal heterogeneity. The Tripleclouds concept was thereby incorporated in the widely employed δ-Eddington two-stream radiation scheme within the comprehensive libRadtran library.
Allison B. Marquardt Collow, Mark A. Miller, Lynne C. Trabachino, Michael P. Jensen, and Meng Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10073–10090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10073-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10073-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainties in marine boundary layer clouds arise in the presence of biomass burning aerosol, as is the case over the southeast Atlantic Ocean. Heating due to this aerosol has the potential to alter the thermodynamic profile as the aerosol is transported across the Atlantic Ocean. Radiation transfer experiments indicate local shortwave aerosol heating is ~2–8 K d−1; however uncertainties in this quantity exist due to the single-scattering albedo and back trajectories of the aerosol plume.
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO2 and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO2 it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Yuqiang Zhang, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gunnar Myhre, Camilla W. Stjern, Gregory Faluvegi, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8251–8266, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8251-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
By using climate simulations, we found that both CO2 and black carbon aerosols could reduce low-level cloud cover, which is mainly due to changes in relative humidity, cloud water, dynamics, and stability. Because the impact of cloud on solar radiation is in effect only during daytime, such cloud reduction could enhance solar heating, thereby raising the daily maximum temperature by 10–50 %, varying by region, which has great implications for extreme climate events and socioeconomic activity.
Tobias Donth, Evelyn Jäkel, André Ehrlich, Bernd Heinold, Jacob Schacht, Andreas Herber, Marco Zanatta, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8139–8156, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8139-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8139-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Solar radiative effects of Arctic black carbon (BC) particles (suspended in the atmosphere and in the surface snowpack) were quantified under cloudless and cloudy conditions. An atmospheric and a snow radiative transfer model were coupled to account for radiative interactions between both compartments. It was found that (i) the warming effect of BC in the snowpack overcompensates for the atmospheric BC cooling effect, and (ii) clouds tend to reduce the atmospheric BC cooling and snow BC warming.
Paul Ockenfuß, Claudia Emde, Bernhard Mayer, and Germar Bernhard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1961–1976, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1961-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We model solar radiation as it would be measured on the Earth's surface in the core shadow of a total solar eclipse. Subsequently, we compare our results to observations during the total eclipse 2017 for ultraviolet, visible and near-infrared wavelengths. Moreover, we analyze the effect of the surface reflectance, the ozone profile, aerosol and the topography and give a visualization of the prevailing photons paths in the atmosphere during the eclipse.
Nina Črnivec and Bernhard Mayer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8083–8100, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8083-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8083-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The interaction between radiation and clouds represents a source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction (NWP), due to both intrinsic problems of one-dimensional radiation schemes and poor representation of clouds. The underlying question addressed in this study is how large the bias is of radiative heating rates in NWP models for shallow cumulus clouds and how it scales with various parameters, such as solar zenith angle, surface albedo, cloud cover and liquid water path.
Ben Kravitz, Philip J. Rasch, Hailong Wang, Alan Robock, Corey Gabriel, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Andrew Lenton, John C. Moore, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven Phipps, Hauke Schmidt, Shingo Watanabe, Shuting Yang, and Jin-Ho Yoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13097–13113, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13097-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Marine cloud brightening has been proposed as a means of geoengineering/climate intervention, or deliberately altering the climate system to offset anthropogenic climate change. In idealized simulations that highlight contrasts between land and ocean, we find that the globe warms, including the ocean due to transport of heat from land. This study reinforces that no net energy input into the Earth system does not mean that temperature will necessarily remain unchanged.
Rick D. Russotto and Thomas P. Ackerman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11905–11925, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11905-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11905-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In simulations with different climate models in which the strength of the Sun is reduced to cancel the surface warming from a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, low cloud cover decreases, high cloud cover increases, the upper troposphere and stratosphere cool, and water vapor concentration decreases. The stratospheric cooling and low cloud reduction result in more sunlight reduction being needed than originally thought.
Justyna Lisok, Anna Rozwadowska, Jesper G. Pedersen, Krzysztof M. Markowicz, Christoph Ritter, Jacek W. Kaminski, Joanna Struzewska, Mauro Mazzola, Roberto Udisti, Silvia Becagli, and Izabela Gorecka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8829–8848, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8829-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8829-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of the presented study was to investigate the impact on the radiation budget and atmospheric dynamics of a biomass-burning plume, transported from Alaska to the High Arctic region of Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, in early July 2015. We found that the smoke plume may significantly alter radiative properties of the atmosphere. Furthermore, the simulations of atmospheric dynamics indicated a vertical positive displacement and broadening of the plume with time.
Simon Gruber, Simon Unterstrasser, Jan Bechtold, Heike Vogel, Martin Jung, Henry Pak, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6393–6411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6393-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6393-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A numerical model also used for operational weather forecast was applied to investigate the impact of contrails and contrail cirrus on the radiative fluxes at the earth's surface. Accounting for contrails produced by aircraft enables the model to simulate high clouds that are otherwise missing. In a case study, we find that the effect of these extra clouds is to reduce the incoming shortwave radiation at the surface as well as the production of photovoltaic power by up to 10 %.
Andrew E. Dessler, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Bjorn Stevens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5147–5155, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5147-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5147-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most important parameters in climate science is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Estimates of this quantity based on 20th-century observations suggest low values of ECS (below 2 °C). We show that these calculations may be significantly in error. Together with other recent work on this problem, it seems probable that the ECS is larger than suggested by the 20th-century observations.
Jake J. Gristey, J. Christine Chiu, Robert J. Gurney, Cyril J. Morcrette, Peter G. Hill, Jacqueline E. Russell, and Helen E. Brindley
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5129–5145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5129-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5129-2018, 2018
Daniela Meloni, Alcide di Sarra, Gérard Brogniez, Cyrielle Denjean, Lorenzo De Silvestri, Tatiana Di Iorio, Paola Formenti, José L. Gómez-Amo, Julian Gröbner, Natalia Kouremeti, Giuliano Liuzzi, Marc Mallet, Giandomenico Pace, and Damiano M. Sferlazzo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4377–4401, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4377-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4377-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how different aerosol optical properties determine the dust longwave radiative effects at the surface, in the atmosphere and at the top of the atmosphere, based on the combination of remote sensing and in situ observations from the ground, from airborne sensors, and from space, by means of radiative transfer modelling. The closure experiment is based on longwave irradiances and spectral brightness temperatures measured during the 2013 ChArMEx–ADRIMED campaign at Lampedusa.
Netsanet K. Alamirew, Martin C. Todd, Claire L. Ryder, John H. Marsham, and Yi Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1241–1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1241-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1241-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper quantifies the radiative effects of dust and water vapour in the Saharan heat low. Dust has a warming effect at the top of the atmosphere while cooling the surface. Water vapour has a warming effect both at the top of atmosphere and the surface. We find dust and water vapour have similar effects in driving the variability in the top-of-atmosphere radiative budget, while dust has a stronger effect than water vapour in controlling day-to-day variability of the surface radiative budget.
Fabian Jakub and Bernhard Mayer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13317–13327, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13317-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13317-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The formation of shallow cumulus cloud streets was historically attributed primarily to dynamics. Here, we focus on the interaction between radiatively induced surface heterogeneities and the resulting patterns in the flow. Our results suggest that solar radiative heating has the potential to organize clouds perpendicular to the sun's incidence angle.
Guadalupe Sanchez, Antonio Serrano, and María Luisa Cancillo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12697–12708, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12697-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12697-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes models to estimate the UVER diffuse irradiance, which means, at least, 40 % of the ultraviolet solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface at mid-latitudes. These models are inspired by expressions originally used to estimate total diffuse fraction and rely on variables commonly available to favor their applicability. The best model in this paper performs better than previous approaches and no additional information about the cloud or aerosol layer is needed.
Päivi Haapanala, Petri Räisänen, Greg M. McFarquhar, Jussi Tiira, Andreas Macke, Michael Kahnert, John DeVore, and Timo Nousiainen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6865–6882, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6865-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6865-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The dependence of solar-disk and circumsolar radiances on ice cloud
properties is studied with a Monte Carlo radiative transfer model. Ice
crystal roughness (or more generally, non-ideality) is found to be the
most important parameter influencing the circumsolar radiance, and ice
crystal sizes and shapes also play significant roles. When comparing
with radiances measured with the SAM instrument, rough ice crystals
reproduce the measurements better than idealized smooth ice crystals do.
Carolin Klinger, Bernhard Mayer, Fabian Jakub, Tobias Zinner, Seung-Bu Park, and Pierre Gentine
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5477–5500, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5477-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5477-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Radiation is driving weather and climate. Yet, the effect of radiation on clouds is not fully understood and often only poorly represented in models. Better understanding and better parameterizations of the radiation–cloud interaction are therefore essential. Using our newly developed fast
neighboring column approximationfor 3-D thermal heating and cooling rates, we show that thermal radiation changes cloud circulation and causes organization and a deepening of the clouds.
Nicolas Bellouin, Laura Baker, Øivind Hodnebrog, Dirk Olivié, Ribu Cherian, Claire Macintosh, Bjørn Samset, Anna Esteve, Borgar Aamaas, Johannes Quaas, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13885–13910, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13885-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13885-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses global climate models to quantify how strongly man-made emissions of selected pollutants modify the energy budget of the Earth. The pollutants studied interact directly and indirectly with sunlight and terrestrial radiation and remain a relatively short time in the atmosphere, leading to regional and seasonal variations in their impacts. This new data set is useful to compare the potential climate impacts of different pollutants in support of policies to reduce climate change.
Shi Song, K. Sebastian Schmidt, Peter Pilewskie, Michael D. King, Andrew K. Heidinger, Andi Walther, Hironobu Iwabuchi, Gala Wind, and Odele M. Coddington
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13791–13806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13791-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13791-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The radiative effects of spatially complex cloud fields are notoriously difficult to estimate and are afflicted with errors up to ±50 % of the incident solar radiation. We find that horizontal photon transport, the leading cause for these three-dimensional effects, manifests itself through a spectral fingerprint – a new observable that holds promise for reducing the errors associated with spatial complexity by moving the problem to the spectral dimension.
Cited articles
Allen, M. R., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Shine, K. P., Reisinger, A., Pierrehumbert,
R. T., and Forster, P. M.: New use of global warming potentials to compare
cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants, Nat. Clim. Change, 6,
773–776, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2998, 2016.
Alvarez, R. A., Pacala, S. W., Winebrake, J. J., Chameides, W. L., and
Hamburg, S. P.: Greater focus needed on methane leakage from natural gas
infrastructure, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 6435–6440,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1202407109, 2012.
Alvarez, R. A., Zavala-Araiza, D., Lyon, D. R., Allen, D. T., Barkley, Z.
R., Brandt, A. R., Davis, K. J., Herndon, S. C., Jacob, D. J., Karion, A.,
Kort, E. A., Lamb, B. K., Lauvaux, T., Maasakkers, J. D., Marchese, A. J.,
Omara, M., Pacala, S. W., Peischl, J., Robinson, A. L., Shepson, P. B.,
Sweeney, C., Townsend-Small, A., Wofsy, S. C., and Hamburg, S. P.:
Assessment of methane emissions from the U.S. oil and gas supply chain,
Science, 361, 186–188, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aar7204, 2018.
Balcombe, P., Speirs, J., Brandon, N. P., and Hawkes, A. D.: Methane emissions:
choosing the right climate metric and time, Environ. Sci.-Proc.
Imp., 20, 1323, https://doi.org/10.1039/c8em00414e, 2018.
Bartlett, J. and Krupnick, A.: Decarbonized Hydrogen in the US Power and
Industrial Sectors: Identifying and Incentivizing Opportunities to Lower
Emissions, Resources for the Future, 2020.
Beswick, R. R., Oliveira, A. M., and Yan, Y.: Does the Green Hydrogen
Economy Have a Water Problem?, Am. Chem. S., 6, 3167–3169,
https://doi.org/10.1021/acsenergylett.1c01375, 2021.
BloombergNEF: Hydrogen Economy Outlook Key messages, Bloomberg Finance L. P., 14 pp., https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/BNEF-Hydrogen-Economy-Outlook-Key-Messages-30-Mar-2020.pdf (last access: 26 April 2022) 2020a.
BloombergNEF: New Energy Outlook 2020 Executive Summary, Bloomberg Finance L. P., 30 pp., https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/928908_NEO2020-Executive-Summary.pdf (last access: 26 April 2022), 2020b.
BloombergNEF: New Energy Outlook 2021 Executive Summary, Bloomberg Finance L. P., 16 pp., https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/NEO-Executive-Summary-2021.pdf (last access: 26 April 2022), 2021.
Bond, S. W., Gül, T., Reimann, S., Buchmann, B., and Wokaun, A.:
Emissions of anthropogenic hydrogen to the atmosphere during the potential
transition to an increasingly H2-intensive economy, Int. J. Hydrogen,
Energ., 36, 1122–1135, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2010.10.016,
2011.
Budsberg, E., Crawford, J., Gustafson, R., Bura, R., and Puettmann, M.:
Ethanologens vs. acetogens: Environmental impacts of two ethanol
fermentation pathways, Biomass Bioenerg., 83, 23–31,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2015.08.019, 2015.
Cain, M., Lynch, J., Allen, M. R., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Frame, D. J., and Macey, A.
H.: Improved calculation of warming-equivalent emissions for short-lived
pollutants, NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci., 2, 29, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0086-4, 2019.
Camuzeaux, J. R., Alvarez, R. A., Brooks, S. A., Browne, J. B., and Sterner,
T.: Influence of methane emissions and vehicle efficiency on the climate
implications of heavy-duty natural gas trucks, Am. Chem. S., 49, 6402–6410,
https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b00412, 2015.
Cherubini, F. and Tanaka, K.: Amending the Inadequacy of a Single Indicator for Climate Impact Analyses, Environ. Sci. Technol., 50, 12530–12531, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6b05343, 2016.
Colella, W. G., Jacobson, M. Z., and Golden, D. M.: Switching to a U.S.
hydrogen fuel cell vehicle fleet: The resultant change in emissions, energy
use, and greenhouse gases, J. Power Sources, 150, 150–181,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JPOWSOUR.2005.05.092, 2005.
Collins, W., Frame, D., Fuglesvedt, J. S., and Shine, K. P.: Stable climate
metrics for emissions of short and long-lived species – combining steps and
pulses, Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 024018,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6039, 2020.
Cooper, J., Dubey, L., Bakkaloglu, S., and Hawkes, A.: Hydrogen emissions from
the hydrogen value chain-emissions profile and impact to global warming,
Sci. Total Environ., 830, 15624, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154624,
2022.
Derwent, R. G.: Hydrogen for Heating: Atmospheric Impacts, Department for
Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/760538/Hydrogen_atmospheric_impact_report.pdf (last access: 12 May 2012), 2018.
Derwent, R. G., Collins, W. J., Johnson, C. E., and Stevenson, D. S.:
Transient behaviour of tropospheric ozone precursors in a global 3-D CTM and
their indirect greenhouse effects, Climatic Change, 49, 463–487,
https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010648913655, 2001.
Derwent, R. G., Stevenson, D. S., Utembe, S. R., Jenkin, M. E., Khan, A. H.,
and Shallcross, D. E.: Global modelling studies of hydrogen and its
isotopomers using STOCHEM-CRI: Likely radiative forcing consequences of a
future hydrogen economy, Int. J. Hydrogen Energ., 45, 9211–9221,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2020.01.125, 2020.
Derwent, R., Simmonds, P., O'Doherty, S., Manning, A., Collins, W., and
Stevenson, D.: Global environmental impacts of the hydrogen economy, Int. J.
Nuclear Hydrogen Production and Application, 1, 57–67,
https://doi.org/10.1504/IJNHPA.2006.009869, 2006.
Ehhalt, D., Prather, M., Dentener, F., Derwent, R., Dlugokencky, E.,
Holland, E., Isaksen, I., Katima, J., Kirchhoff, V., Matson, O., Midgley,
P., and Wang, M.: Atmospheric Chemistry and Greenhouse Gases, in: Climate
Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the
Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
edited by: Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der
Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. A., Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 239–287, ISBN: 0521014956, 2001.
Energy Transitions Commission: Making the Hydrogen Economy Possible:
Accelerating Clean Hydrogen in an Electrified Economy,
https://www.energy-transitions.org/publications/making-clean-hydrogen-possible/ (last access: 18 May 2022),
2021.
Fesenfeld, L. P., Schmidt, T. S., and Schrode, A.: Climate policy for short- and
long-lived pollutants, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 924–936,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0321-8, 2018.
Field, R. A. and Derwent, R. G.: Global warming consequences of replacing
natural gas with hydrogen in the domestic energy sectors of future
low-carbon economies in the United Kingdom and the United States of America,
Int. J. Hydrogen Energ., 46, 30190–30203,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2021.06.120, 2021.
Fischer, E. M., Sippel, S., and Knutti, R.: Increasing probability of
record-shattering climate extremes, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 689–695,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01092-9, 2021.
Forster, P., Storelvmo, T., Armour, K., Collins, W., Dufresne, J. L., Frame, D., Lunt, D. J., Mauritsen, T., Palmer, M. D., Watanabe, M.,Wild, M., and Zhang, H.: The Earth's energy budget, climate feedbacks, and climate sensitivity, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirant, A., Connors, S. L., Pean, C., Berger, S., Caud, C., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, L. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekci, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, 923–1054, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (last access: 11 July 2022), 2021.
Frazer-Nash Consultancy: Fugitive Hydrogen Emissions in a Future Hydrogen
Economy, Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy,
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fugitive-hydrogen-emissions-in-a-future-hydrogen-economy (last access: 14 April 2022),
2022.
Howarth, A. and Jacobson, M. Z.: How green is blue hydrogen?, Energy Sci.
Eng., 9, 1676–1687, https://doi.org/10.1002/ese3.956, 2021.
Hydrogen Council: Hydrogen scaling up A sustainable pathway for the global energy transition, 78 pp., https://hydrogencouncil.com/en/study-hydrogen-scaling-up/ (last access: 7 April 2022), 2017.
Hydrogen Council: Hydrogen Insights Report 2021, A perspective on hydrogen investment, market development and cost competitiveness, 58 pp., https://hydrogencouncil.com/en/hydrogen-insights-2021/ (last access: 14 April 2022), 2021a.
Hydrogen Council: Hydrogen decarbonization pathways: A life-cycle assessmentfor Net-Zero: A critical cost-competitive energy vector, 55 pp., https://hydrogencouncil.com/en/hydrogen-for-net-zero/ (last access: 16 May 2022), 2021b.
International Energy Agency: The Future of Hydrogen Seizing today’s opportunities, 203 pp., https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen (last access: 14 April 2022), 2019.
International Energy Agency: Global Hydrogen Review 2021, 224 pp., https://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2021 (last access: 14 April 2022), 2021.
International Energy Agency: Hydrogen, https://www.iea.org/fuels-and-technologies/hydrogen, last access: 17 May 2022.
International Renewable Energy Agency: Global Renewables Outlook: Energy transformation 2050, https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Apr/Global-Renewables-Outlook-2020 (last access: 16 May 2022), 2020.
International Renewable Energy Agency: Global Hydrogen Trade to Meet the 1.5 ∘C Climate Goal Part II Technology Review of Hydrogen Carriers, https://www.irena.org/publications/2022/Apr/Global-hydrogen-trade-Part-II (last access: 13 May 2022), 2022.
Ivanovich, C. C., Ocko, I. B., Piris-Cabezas, P., and Petsonk, A.: Climate benefits of proposed carbon dioxide mitigation strategies for international shipping and aviation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14949–14965, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14949-2019, 2019.
Jacobson, M. Z.: Effects of wind-powered hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on
stratospheric ozone and global climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L19803, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035102, 2008.
Kobayashi, H., Naruo, Y., Maru, Y., Takesaki, Y., and Miyanabe, K.:
Experiment of cryo-compressed (90-MPa) hydrogen leakage diffusion, Int. J.
Hydrogen Energ., 43, 17928–17937,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.IJHYDENE.2018.07.145, 2018.
Lewis, A. C.: Optimising air quality co-benefits in a hydrogen economy: a
case for hydrogen-specific standards for NOx emissions, Environ. Sci:
Atmos., 1, 201–207, https://doi.org/10.1039/d1ea00037c, 2021.
Lynch, J., Cain, M., Pierrehumbert, R., and Allen, M.: Demonstrating GWP*: a
means of reporting warming-equivalent emissions that captures the
contrasting impacts of short-and long-lived climate pollutants, Environ.
Res. Lett., 15, 044023, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7e, 2020.
Mejia, A. H., Brouwer, J., and Mac Kinnon, M.: Hydrogen leaks at the same
rate as natural gas in typical low-pressure gas infrastructure, Int. J.
Hydrogen Energ., 45, 8810–8826,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2019.12.159, 2020.
Melaina, M. W., Antonia, O., and Penev, M.: Blending Hydrogen into Natural
Gas Pipeline Networks: A Review of Key Issues, PhD, National Renewable
Energy Laboratory, https://doi.org/10.2172/1068610, 2013.
Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Bréon, F.-M., Collins, W., Fuglestvedt, J., Huang, J., Koch, D., Lamarque, J.-F., Lee, D., Mendoza, B., Nakajima, T., Robock, A., Stephens, G., Takemura, T., and Zhang, H.: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing Supplementary Material, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Basis, Contribution of Working Group I of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M. Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, 8SM-1–8SM-44, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.018, 2013.
Najjar, Y. S.: Hydrogen Leakage Sensing and Control: (Review), Biomed. J.
Sci. Tech. Res., 21, 16228–16240, https://doi.org/10.26717/bjstr.2019.21.003670, 2019.
Ocko, I. B. and Hamburg, S. P.: Climate Impacts of Hydropower: Enormous
Differences among Facilities and over Time, Environ. Sci. Technol., 53,
14070–14082, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b05083, 2019.
Ocko, I. B., Hamburg, S. P., Jacob, D. J., Keith, D. W., Keohane, N. O.,
Oppenheimer, M., Roy-Mayhew, J. D., Schrag, D. P., and Pacala, S. W.: Unmask
temporal trade-offs in climate policy debates, Science, 356, 492–493, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaj2350, 2017.
Ocko, I. B., Sun, T., Shindell, D., Oppenheimer, M., Hristov, A. N., Pacala,
S. W., Mauzerall, D. L., Xu, Y., and Hamburg, S. P.: Acting rapidly to
deploy readily available methane mitigation measures by sector can
immediately slow global warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 054042, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf9c8, 2021.
Paulot, F., Paynter, D., Naik, V., Malyshev, S., Menzel, R., and Horowitz,
L. W.: Global modeling of hydrogen using GFDL-AM4.1: Sensitivity of soil
removal and radiative forcing, Int. J. Hydrogen Energ., 46, 13446–13460,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2021.01.088, 2021.
Prather, M. J.: An Environmental Experiment with H2?, Science, 302, 581–582, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1091060, 2003.
Rahn, T., Eiler, J. M., Boering, K. A., Wennberg, P. O., McCarthy, M. C.,
Tyler, S., Schauffler, S., Donnelly, S., and Atlas, E.: Extreme deuterium
enrichment in stratospheric hydrogen and the global atmospheric budget of
H2, Nature, 424, 915–918, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01917, 2003.
Saadat, S. and Gersen, S.: Reclaiming Hydrogen for a Renewable Future, Earthjustice, 41 pp., https://earthjustice.org/features/green-hydrogen-renewable-zero-emission (last access: 11 July 2022), 2021.
Schultz, M. G., Diehl, T., Brasseur, G. P., and Zittel, W.: Air Pollution
and Climate-Forcing Impacts of a Global Hydrogen Economy, 302, 622–624,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1089527, 2003.
Secretary of State
for Business: Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, UK hydrogen strategy, United Kingdom, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-hydrogen-strategy (last access: 20 April 2022), 2021.
Severinsky, A. J. and Sessoms, A. L.: Methane versus Carbon Dioxide: Mitigation
Prospects, Int. J. Environ. Ecol. Eng., 15, 214–220,
https://publications.waset.org/vol/176, 2021.
Shen, L., Zavala-Araiza, D., Gautam, R., Omara, M., Scarpelli, T., Sheng,
J., Sulprizio, M. P., Zhuang, J., Zhang, Y., Qu, Z., Lu, X., Hamburg, S. P.,
and Jacob, D. J.: Unravelling a large methane emission discrepancy in Mexico
using satellite observations, Remote Sens. Enviornment, 260, 112461, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2021.112461, 2021.
Sherif, S. A., Zeytinoglu, N., and Veziroglug, T. N.: Liquid Hydrogen:
Potential, Problems, and a Proposed Research Program, Int. J. Hydrogen
Energy, 22, 683–688, 1997.
Shine, K. P., Berntsen, T. K., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Skeie, R. B., and Stuber,
N.: Comparing the Climate Effect of Emissions of Short-and Long0Lived
Climate Agents, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A., 365, 1903–1914,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2050, 2007.
Simoes, S. G., Catarino, J., Picado, A., Lopes, T. F., di Berardino, S.,
Amorim, F., Gírio, F., Rangel, C. M., and Ponce de Leão, T.: Water
availability and water usage solutions for electrolysis in hydrogen
production, J. Clean. Produc., 315, 128124, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128124, 2021.
Swain, M. R. and Swain, M. N.: A comparison of H2, CH4 and C3H8 fuel leakage
in residential settings, Int. J. Hydrogen Energ., 17, 807–815,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0360-3199(92)90025-R, 1992.
Thibault, L., Gahlot, P. and Debarre, R.: Hydrogen applications and business
models, Kearney Energy Transition Institute,
https://www.energy-transition-institute.com/insights/hydrogen (last access: 14 April 2022), 2020.
Tromp, T. K., Shia, R.-L., Allen, M., Eiler, J. M., and Yung, Y. L.:
Potential Environmental Impact of a Hydrogen Economy on the Stratosphere,
Science, 300, 1740–1742, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1085169, 2003.
Ueckerdt, F., Bauer, C., Dirnaichner, A., Everall, J., Sacchi, R., and
Luderer, G.: Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change
mitigation, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 384–393, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01032-7, 2021.
van Renssen, S.: The hydrogen solution?, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 799–201, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0891-0, 2020.
van Ruijven, B., Lamarque, J. F., van Vuuren, D. P., Kram, T., and Eerens,
H.: Emission scenarios for a global hydrogen economy and the consequences
for global air pollution, Glo. Env. Change, 21, 983–994,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.03.013, 2011.
Vogel, B., Feck, T., and Groobß, J. U.: Impact of stratospheric water
vapor enhancements caused by CH4 and H2O increase on polar ozone loss, J.
Geophys. Res-Atmos., 116, D05301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014234, 2011.
Vogel, B., Feck, T., Grooß, J. U., and Riese, M.: Impact of a possible
future global hydrogen economy on Arctic stratospheric ozone loss, Energy
Environ. Sci., 5, 6445–6452, https://doi.org/10.1039/c2ee03181g, 2012.
Wang, D., Jia, W., Olsen, S. C., Wuebbles, D. J., Dubey, M. K., and Rockett, A. A.: Impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere – Part 2: Stratospheric ozone, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6139–6150, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6139-2013, 2013.
Warwick, N., Bekki, S., Nisbet, E. G., and Pyle, J. A.: Impact of a hydrogen economy on the stratosphere and troposphere studied in a 2-D model, Geophys. Res. Letters, 31, L05107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gl019224, 2004.
Warwick, N., Griffiths, P., Keeble, J., Archibald, A., Pyle, J., and Shine, K.: Atmospheric implications of increased Hydrogen use, Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, 75 pp., https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/atmospheric-implications-of-increased-hydrogen-use (last access: 15 April 2022), 2022.
World Energy Council: Working Paper National Hydrogen Strategies, 20 pp., publications/entry/working-paper-hydrogen-on-the-horizon-national-hydrogen-strategies (last access: 25 January 2022), 2021.
Wuebbles, D. J., Dubey, M. K., Edmonds, J., Layzell, D., Olsen, S., Rahn,
T., Rocket, A., Wang, D., and Jia, W.: Evaluation of the Potential
Environmental Impacts from Large-Scale Use and Production of Hydrogen in
Energy and Transportation Applications, University of Illinois at
Urbana-Champaign, United States, https://doi.org/10.2172/1044180, 2010.
Xu, Y., Zaelke, D., Velders, G. J. M., and Ramanathan, V.: The role of HFCs in mitigating 21st century climate change, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6083–6089, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6083-2013, 2013.
Yusaf, T., Laimon, M., Alrefae, W., Kadirgama, K., Dhahad, H., Ramasamy, D., Kamarulzaman, M. K., and Yousif, B.: Hydrogen Energy Demand Growth Prediction and Assessment (2021–2050) Using a System Thinking and System Dynamics Approach, Appl. Sci., 12, 781, https://doi.org/10.3390/app12020781, 2022.
Short summary
Hydrogen is considered a key strategy to decarbonize the global economy. However, hydrogen is also a short-lived indirect greenhouse gas that can easily leak into the atmosphere. Given that the climate impacts from hydrogen emissions are not well understood, especially in the near term, we assess impacts over all timescales for plausible emissions rates. We find that hydrogen leakage can cause more warming than widely perceived; thus, attention is needed to minimize emissions.
Hydrogen is considered a key strategy to decarbonize the global economy. However, hydrogen is...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint