the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail
Constanze Wellmann
Andrew I. Barrett
Jill S. Johnson
Michael Kunz
Bernhard Vogel
Ken S. Carslaw
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Uncertainty with respect to cloud phases over the Southern Ocean and Arctic marine regions leads to large uncertainties in the radiation budget of weather and climate models. This study investigates the phases of low-base and mid-base clouds using satellite-based remote sensing data. A comprehensive analysis of the correlation of cloud phase with various parameters, such as temperature, aerosols, sea ice, vertical and horizontal cloud extent, and cloud radiative effect, is presented.
hiddensource of inter-model variability and may be leading to bias in some climate model results.
closed loopfor aerosol formation, transport and growth.
variantsof the model using an implausibility metric. Despite many compensating effects in the model, the procedure constrains the probability distributions of many parameters, and direct radiative forcing uncertainty is reduced by 34 %.
sweet spotand is sensitive to fluctuations in cloud condensation nuclei concentration alone.
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Whether increased aerosol increases or decreases liquid cloud mass has been a longstanding question. Observed correlations suggest that aerosols thin liquid cloud, but we are able to show that observations were consistent with an increase in liquid cloud in response to aerosols by leveraging a model where causality could be traced.