Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2201-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2201-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Feb 2020
Research article |
| 26 Feb 2020
| 26 Feb 2020
Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail
Constanze Wellmann
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Andrew I. Barrett
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Jill S. Johnson
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Michael Kunz
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Bernhard Vogel
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Ken S. Carslaw
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Xinyue Shao, Yaman Liu, Xinyi Dong, Minghuai Wang, Ruochong Xu, Joel A. Thornton, Duseong S. Jo, Man Yue, Wenxiang Shen, Manish Shrivastava, Stephen R. Arnold, and Ken S. Carslaw
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1526, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Highly Oxygenated Organic Molecules (HOMs) are key precursors of secondary organic aerosols (SOA). Incorporating the HOMs chemical mechanism into a global climate model allows for a reasonable reproduction of observed HOM characteristics. HOM-SOA constitutes a significant fraction of global SOA, and its distribution and formation pathways exhibit strong sensitivity to uncertainties in autoxidation processes and peroxy radical branching ratios.
Xuemei Wang, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Daniel P. Grosvenor, and Hamish Gordon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-132, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic emissions can influence aerosol particle number concentrations via new particle formation. Our model simulations predict around 10 % increase of the particle and cloud droplet number concentrations when doubling the emissions in the Manaus region in the Amazonian wet season. However, the corresponding changes in cloud water and rain mass are around 4 %. Such weak response implied that this convective environment is not sensitive to the localised anthropogenic emission changes here.
Barbara Ervens, Ken S. Carslaw, Thomas Koop, and Ulrich Pöschl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-419, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-419, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Over the past two decades, the European Geosciences Union (EGU) has demonstrated the success, viability and benefits of interactive open access (OA) publishing with public peer review in its journals, its publishing platform EGUsphere and virtual compilations. The article summarizes the evolution of the EGU/Copernicus publications and of OA publishing with interactive public peer review at large by placing the EGU/Copernicus publications in the context of current and future global open science.
Lisa Janina Muth, Sascha Bierbauer, Corinna Hoose, Bernhard Vogel, Heike Vogel, and Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-402, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how intense wildfires created thunderstorm-like clouds that can affect weather and climate globally. Using simulations with high resolution, we found that fire heat and moisture help form these clouds, lifting particles high into the atmosphere. This process is crucial for understanding how fires impact the environment. Despite some differences with observational data, our findings align well over time, showing the importance of fire-induced heat in cloud formation.
Xinyue Shao, Minghuai Wang, Xinyi Dong, Yaman Liu, Stephen R. Arnold, Leighton A. Regayre, Duseong S. Jo, Wenxiang Shen, Hao Wang, Man Yue, Jingyi Wang, Wenxin Zhang, and Ken S. Carslaw
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4135, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4135, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a global chemistry-climate model to investigate how new particle formation (NPF) from highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) contributes to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in both preindustrial (PI) and present-day (PD) environments, and its impact on aerosol indirect radiative forcing. The findings highlight the crucial role of biogenic emissions in climate change, providing new insights for carbon-neutral scenarios and enhancing understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions.
Xinyi Huang, Paul R. Field, Benjamin J. Murray, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Floortje van den Heuvel, and Kenneth S. Carslaw
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4070, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4070, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Cold-air outbreak (CAO) clouds play a vital role in climate prediction. This study explores the responses of CAO clouds to aerosols and ice production under different environmental conditions. We found that CAO cloud responses vary with cloud temperature and are strongly controlled by the liquid-ice partitioning in these clouds, suggesting the importance of good representations of cloud microphysics properties to predict the behaviours of CAO clouds in a warming climate.
Ross J. Herbert, Alberto Sanchez-Marroquin, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Kirsty J. Pringle, Stephen R. Arnold, Benjamin J. Murray, and Kenneth S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 291–325, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-291-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-291-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol particles that help form ice in clouds vary in number and type around the world and with time. However, in many weather and climate models cloud ice is not linked to aerosols that are known to nucleate ice. Here we report the first steps towards representing ice-nucleating particles within the UK Earth System Model. We conclude that in addition to ice nucleation by sea spray and mineral components of soil dust, we also need to represent ice nucleation by the organic components of soils.
Erin N. Raif, Sarah L. Barr, Mark D. Tarn, James B. McQuaid, Martin I. Daily, Steven J. Abel, Paul A. Barrett, Keith N. Bower, Paul R. Field, Kenneth S. Carslaw, and Benjamin J. Murray
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 14045–14072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) allow ice to form in clouds at temperatures warmer than −35°C. We measured INP concentrations over the Norwegian and Barents seas in weather events where cold air is ejected from the Arctic. These concentrations were among the highest measured in the Arctic. It is likely that the INPs were transported to the Arctic from distant regions. These results show it is important to consider hemispheric-scale INP processes to understand INP concentrations in the Arctic.
Masaru Yoshioka, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Ben B. B. Booth, Colin P. Morice, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13681–13692, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A 2020 regulation has reduced sulfur emissions from shipping by about 80 %, leading to a decrease in atmospheric aerosols that have a cooling effect primarily by affecting cloud properties and amounts. Our climate model simulations predict a global temperature increase of 0.04 K over the next 3 decades as a result, which could contribute to surpassing the Paris Agreement's 1.5 °C target. Reduced aerosols may have also contributed to the recent temperature spikes.
Markus Augenstein, Susanna Mohr, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2804, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
A grid-based analysis of lightning in Europe shows a reduction in thunderstorm activity in many regions. Moving away from a grid-based analysis, a spatio-temporal clustering algorithm was used. The results show a slight trend towards the occurrence of smaller, more separated convective clustered events, suggesting changes in the organization of convective systems. One reason for this could be the increased occurrence of the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the last decade.
Xinyue Shao, Minghuai Wang, Xinyi Dong, Yaman Liu, Wenxiang Shen, Stephen R. Arnold, Leighton A. Regayre, Meinrat O. Andreae, Mira L. Pöhlker, Duseong S. Jo, Man Yue, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11365–11389, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11365-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) play an important role in atmospheric new particle formation (NPF). By semi-explicitly coupling the chemical mechanism of HOMs and a comprehensive nucleation scheme in a global climate model, the updated model shows better agreement with measurements of nucleation rate, growth rate, and NPF event frequency. Our results reveal that HOM-driven NPF leads to a considerable increase in particle and cloud condensation nuclei burden globally.
Gabriella Wallentin, Annika Oertel, Luisa Ickes, Peggy Achtert, Matthias Tesche, and Corinna Hoose
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2988, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2988, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multilayer clouds are common in the Arctic but remain understudied. We use an atmospheric model to simulate multilayer cloud cases from the Arctic expedition MOSAiC 2019/2020. We find that it is complex to accurately model these cloud layers due to the lack of correct temperature and humidity profiles. The model also struggles to capture the observed cloud phase, the relative concentration of cloud droplets and cloud ice. We constrain our model to measured aerosols to mitigate this issue.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Barbara Dietel, Odran Sourdeval, and Corinna Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7359–7383, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7359-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainty with respect to cloud phases over the Southern Ocean and Arctic marine regions leads to large uncertainties in the radiation budget of weather and climate models. This study investigates the phases of low-base and mid-base clouds using satellite-based remote sensing data. A comprehensive analysis of the correlation of cloud phase with various parameters, such as temperature, aerosols, sea ice, vertical and horizontal cloud extent, and cloud radiative effect, is presented.
Behrooz Keshtgar, Aiko Voigt, Bernhard Mayer, and Corinna Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4751–4769, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4751-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cloud-radiative heating (CRH) affects extratropical cyclones but is uncertain in weather and climate models. We provide a framework to quantify uncertainties in CRH within an extratropical cyclone due to four factors and show that the parameterization of ice optical properties contributes significantly to uncertainty in CRH. We also argue that ice optical properties, by affecting CRH on spatial scales of 100 km, are relevant for the large-scale dynamics of extratropical cyclones.
Rolf Müller, Ulrich Pöschl, Thomas Koop, Thomas Peter, and Ken Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15445–15453, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Paul J. Crutzen was a pioneer in atmospheric sciences and a kind-hearted, humorous person with empathy for the private lives of his colleagues and students. He made fundamental scientific contributions to a wide range of scientific topics in all parts of the atmosphere. Paul was among the founders of the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. His work will continue to be a guide for generations of scientists and environmental policymakers to come.
Hyunju Jung, Peter Knippertz, Yvonne Ruckstuhl, Robert Redl, Tijana Janjic, and Corinna Hoose
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1111–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A narrow rainfall belt in the tropics is an important feature for large-scale circulations and the global water cycle. The accurate simulation of this rainfall feature has been a long-standing problem, with the reasons behind that unclear. We present a novel diagnostic tool that allows us to disentangle processes important for rainfall, which changes due to modifications in model. Using our diagnostic tool, one can potentially identify sources of uncertainty in weather and climate models.
Hamza Ahsan, Hailong Wang, Jingbo Wu, Mingxuan Wu, Steven J. Smith, Susanne Bauer, Harrison Suchyta, Dirk Olivié, Gunnar Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Huisheng Bian, Jean-François Lamarque, Ken Carslaw, Larry Horowitz, Leighton Regayre, Mian Chin, Michael Schulz, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Vaishali Naik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14779–14799, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the impact of the assumed effective height of SO2 injection, SO2 and BC emission seasonality, and the assumed fraction of SO2 emissions injected as SO4 on climate and chemistry model results. We find that the SO2 injection height has a large impact on surface SO2 concentrations and, in some models, radiative flux. These assumptions are a
hiddensource of inter-model variability and may be leading to bias in some climate model results.
Cunbo Han, Corinna Hoose, Martin Stengel, Quentin Coopman, and Andrew Barrett
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14077–14095, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14077-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14077-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cloud phase has been found to significantly impact cloud thermodynamics and Earth’s radiation budget, and various factors influence it. This study investigates the sensitivity of the cloud-phase distribution to the ice-nucleating particle concentration and thermodynamics. Multiple simulation experiments were performed using the ICON model at the convection-permitting resolution of 1.2 km. Simulation results were compared to two different retrieval products based on SEVIRI measurements.
Leighton A. Regayre, Lucia Deaconu, Daniel P. Grosvenor, David M. H. Sexton, Christopher Symonds, Tom Langton, Duncan Watson-Paris, Jane P. Mulcahy, Kirsty J. Pringle, Mark Richardson, Jill S. Johnson, John W. Rostron, Hamish Gordon, Grenville Lister, Philip Stier, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8749–8768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol forcing of Earth’s energy balance has persisted as a major cause of uncertainty in climate simulations over generations of climate model development. We show that structural deficiencies in a climate model are exposed by comprehensively exploring parametric uncertainty and that these deficiencies limit how much the model uncertainty can be reduced through observational constraint. This provides a future pathway towards building models with greater physical realism and lower uncertainty.
Annika Oertel, Annette K. Miltenberger, Christian M. Grams, and Corinna Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8553–8581, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8553-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are cloud- and precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones that are important for the large-scale flow and cloud radiative forcing. We analyze cloud formation processes during WCB ascent in a two-moment microphysics scheme. Quantification of individual diabatic heating rates shows the importance of condensation, vapor deposition, rain evaporation, melting, and cloud-top radiative cooling for total heating and WCB-related potential vorticity structure.
Daniel P. Grosvenor and Kenneth S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6743–6773, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6743-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We determine what causes long-term trends in short-wave (SW) radiative fluxes in two climate models. A positive trend occurs between 1850 and 1970 (increasing SW reflection) and a negative trend between 1970 and 2014; the pre-1970 positive trend is mainly driven by an increase in cloud droplet number concentrations due to increases in aerosol, and the 1970–2014 trend is driven by a decrease in cloud fraction, which we attribute to changes in clouds caused by greenhouse gas-induced warming.
Axel Seifert, Vanessa Bachmann, Florian Filipitsch, Jochen Förstner, Christian M. Grams, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Julian Quinting, Anika Rohde, Heike Vogel, Annette Wagner, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6409–6430, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how mineral dust can lead to the formation of cirrus clouds. Dusty cirrus clouds lead to a reduction in solar radiation at the surface and, hence, a reduced photovoltaic power generation. Current weather prediction systems are not able to predict this interaction between mineral dust and cirrus clouds. We have developed a new physical description of the formation of dusty cirrus clouds. Overall we can show a considerable improvement in the forecast quality of clouds and radiation.
Ernesto Reyes-Villegas, Douglas Lowe, Jill S. Johnson, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Eoghan Darbyshire, Michael Flynn, James D. Allan, Hugh Coe, Ying Chen, Oliver Wild, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Alex Archibald, Siddhartha Singh, Manish Shrivastava, Rahul A. Zaveri, Vikas Singh, Gufran Beig, Ranjeet Sokhi, and Gordon McFiggans
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5763–5782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5763-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5763-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Organic aerosols (OAs), their sources and their processes remain poorly understood. The volatility basis set (VBS) approach, implemented in air quality models such as WRF-Chem, can be a useful tool to describe primary OA (POA) production and aging. However, the main disadvantage is its complexity. We used a Gaussian process simulator to reproduce model results and to estimate the sources of model uncertainty. We do this by comparing the outputs with OA observations made at Delhi, India, in 2018.
Heinz Jürgen Punge, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael Kunz, Sarah D. Bang, and Kyle F. Itterly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1549–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance claims data. It is found that hail is mainly concentrated in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event characteristics, such as multiple events per day or track dimensions, provides an event catalogue for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, as required by insurance companies.
Xuemei Wang, Hamish Gordon, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Meinrat O. Andreae, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4431–4461, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4431-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4431-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
New particle formation in the upper troposphere is important for the global boundary layer aerosol population, and they can be transported downward in Amazonia. We use a global and a regional model to quantify the number of aerosols that are formed at high altitude and transported downward in a 1000 km region. We find that the majority of the aerosols are from outside the region. This suggests that the 1000 km region is unlikely to be a
closed loopfor aerosol formation, transport and growth.
Ruth Price, Andrea Baccarini, Julia Schmale, Paul Zieger, Ian M. Brooks, Paul Field, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2927–2961, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2927-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic clouds can control how much energy is absorbed by the surface or reflected back to space. Using a computer model of the atmosphere we investigated the formation of atmospheric particles that allow cloud droplets to form. We found that particles formed aloft are transported to the lowest part of the Arctic atmosphere and that this is a key source of particles. Our results have implications for the way Arctic clouds will behave in the future as climate change continues to impact the region.
Julia Thomas, Andrew Barrett, and Corinna Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1987–2002, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1987-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the sensitivity of rain formation processes during a heavy-rainfall event over mountains to changes in temperature and pollution. Total rainfall increases by 2 % K−1, and a 6 % K−1 increase is found at the highest altitudes, caused by a mixed-phase seeder–feeder mechanism (frozen cloud particles melt and grow further as they fall through a liquid cloud layer). In a cleaner atmosphere this process is enhanced. Thus the risk of severe rainfall in mountains may increase in the future.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Behrooz Keshtgar, Aiko Voigt, Corinna Hoose, Michael Riemer, and Bernhard Mayer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 115–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-115-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-115-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting extratropical cyclones is challenging due to many physical factors influencing their behavior. One such factor is the impact of heating and cooling of the atmosphere by the interaction between clouds and radiation. In this study, we show that cloud-radiative heating (CRH) increases the intensity of an idealized cyclone and affects its predictability. We find that CRH affects the cyclone mostly via increasing latent heat release and subsequent changes in the synoptic circulation.
Leighton A. Regayre, Lucia Deaconu, Daniel P. Grosvenor, David Sexton, Christopher C. Symonds, Tom Langton, Duncan Watson-Paris, Jane P. Mulcahy, Kirsty J. Pringle, Mark Richardson, Jill S. Johnson, John Rostron, Hamish Gordon, Grenville Lister, Philip Stier, and Ken S. Carslaw
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1330, 2022
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We show that potential structural deficiencies in a climate model can be exposed by comprehensively exploring its parametric uncertainty, and that these deficiencies limit how much the model uncertainty can be reduced through observational constraint. Combined consideration of parametric and structural uncertainties provides a future pathway towards building models that have greater physical realism and lower uncertainty.
Ville Leinonen, Harri Kokkola, Taina Yli-Juuti, Tero Mielonen, Thomas Kühn, Tuomo Nieminen, Simo Heikkinen, Tuuli Miinalainen, Tommi Bergman, Ken Carslaw, Stefano Decesari, Markus Fiebig, Tareq Hussein, Niku Kivekäs, Radovan Krejci, Markku Kulmala, Ari Leskinen, Andreas Massling, Nikos Mihalopoulos, Jane P. Mulcahy, Steffen M. Noe, Twan van Noije, Fiona M. O'Connor, Colin O'Dowd, Dirk Olivie, Jakob B. Pernov, Tuukka Petäjä, Øyvind Seland, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Henrik Skov, Erik Swietlicki, Thomas Tuch, Alfred Wiedensohler, Annele Virtanen, and Santtu Mikkonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12873–12905, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12873-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12873-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We provide the first extensive comparison of detailed aerosol size distribution trends between in situ observations from Europe and five different earth system models. We investigated aerosol modes (nucleation, Aitken, and accumulation) separately and were able to show the differences between measured and modeled trends and especially their seasonal patterns. The differences in model results are likely due to complex effects of several processes instead of certain specific model features.
Amy H. Peace, Ben B. B. Booth, Leighton A. Regayre, Ken S. Carslaw, David M. H. Sexton, Céline J. W. Bonfils, and John W. Rostron
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1215–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have been linked to driving climate responses such as shifts in the location of tropical rainfall. However, the interaction of aerosols with climate remains one of the most uncertain aspects of climate modelling and limits our ability to predict future climate change. We use an ensemble of climate model simulations to investigate what impact the large uncertainty in how aerosols interact with climate has on predicting future tropical rainfall shifts.
Natalia E. Chubarova, Heike Vogel, Elizaveta E. Androsova, Alexander A. Kirsanov, Olga B. Popovicheva, Bernhard Vogel, and Gdaliy S. Rivin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10443–10466, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10443-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10443-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Effects of urban aerosol pollution in Moscow were analyzed using the COSMO-ART chemical transport model and intensive measurement campaigns. We show that urban aerosol comprises about 15–20% of columnar aerosol content, consisting mainly of fine aerosol mode. The black carbon (BC) fraction is about 5 %, depending on particle dispersion intensity (IPD). The BC fraction low value explains weak absorbing properties of the Moscow atmosphere. IPD also defines the daily cycle of urban aerosol species.
Alexander D. Harrison, Daniel O'Sullivan, Michael P. Adams, Grace C. E. Porter, Edmund Blades, Cherise Brathwaite, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas, Cassandra Gaston, Rachel Hawker, Ovid O. Krüger, Leslie Neve, Mira L. Pöhlker, Christopher Pöhlker, Ulrich Pöschl, Alberto Sanchez-Marroquin, Andrea Sealy, Peter Sealy, Mark D. Tarn, Shanice Whitehall, James B. McQuaid, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Joseph M. Prospero, and Benjamin J. Murray
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9663–9680, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9663-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9663-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The formation of ice in clouds fundamentally alters cloud properties; hence it is important we understand the special aerosol particles that can nucleate ice when immersed in supercooled cloud droplets. In this paper we show that African desert dust that has travelled across the Atlantic to the Caribbean nucleates ice much less well than we might have expected.
Julia Bruckert, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Ákos Horváth, Lukas O. Muser, Fred J. Prata, Corinna Hoose, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3535–3552, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3535-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic emissions endanger aviation and public health and also influence weather and climate. Forecasting the volcanic-plume dispersion is therefore a critical yet sophisticated task. Here, we show that explicit treatment of volcanic-plume dynamics and eruption source parameters significantly improves volcanic-plume dispersion forecasts. We further demonstrate the lofting of the SO2 due to a heating of volcanic particles by sunlight with major implications for volcanic aerosol research.
Rachel E. Hawker, Annette K. Miltenberger, Jill S. Johnson, Jonathan M. Wilkinson, Adrian A. Hill, Ben J. Shipway, Paul R. Field, Benjamin J. Murray, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17315–17343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17315-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17315-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We find that ice-nucleating particles (INPs), aerosols that can initiate the freezing of cloud droplets, cause substantial changes to the properties of radiatively important convectively generated anvil cirrus. The number concentration of INPs had a large effect on ice crystal number concentration while the INP temperature dependence controlled ice crystal size and cloud fraction. The results indicate information on INP number and source is necessary for the representation of cloud glaciation.
Heather Guy, Ian M. Brooks, Ken S. Carslaw, Benjamin J. Murray, Von P. Walden, Matthew D. Shupe, Claire Pettersen, David D. Turner, Christopher J. Cox, William D. Neff, Ralf Bennartz, and Ryan R. Neely III
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15351–15374, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15351-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15351-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first full year of surface aerosol number concentration measurements from the central Greenland Ice Sheet. Aerosol concentrations here have a distinct seasonal cycle from those at lower-altitude Arctic sites, which is driven by large-scale atmospheric circulation. Our results can be used to help understand the role aerosols might play in Greenland surface melt through the modification of cloud properties. This is crucial in a rapidly changing region where observations are sparse.
Mao Xiao, Christopher R. Hoyle, Lubna Dada, Dominik Stolzenburg, Andreas Kürten, Mingyi Wang, Houssni Lamkaddam, Olga Garmash, Bernhard Mentler, Ugo Molteni, Andrea Baccarini, Mario Simon, Xu-Cheng He, Katrianne Lehtipalo, Lauri R. Ahonen, Rima Baalbaki, Paulus S. Bauer, Lisa Beck, David Bell, Federico Bianchi, Sophia Brilke, Dexian Chen, Randall Chiu, António Dias, Jonathan Duplissy, Henning Finkenzeller, Hamish Gordon, Victoria Hofbauer, Changhyuk Kim, Theodore K. Koenig, Janne Lampilahti, Chuan Ping Lee, Zijun Li, Huajun Mai, Vladimir Makhmutov, Hanna E. Manninen, Ruby Marten, Serge Mathot, Roy L. Mauldin, Wei Nie, Antti Onnela, Eva Partoll, Tuukka Petäjä, Joschka Pfeifer, Veronika Pospisilova, Lauriane L. J. Quéléver, Matti Rissanen, Siegfried Schobesberger, Simone Schuchmann, Yuri Stozhkov, Christian Tauber, Yee Jun Tham, António Tomé, Miguel Vazquez-Pufleau, Andrea C. Wagner, Robert Wagner, Yonghong Wang, Lena Weitz, Daniela Wimmer, Yusheng Wu, Chao Yan, Penglin Ye, Qing Ye, Qiaozhi Zha, Xueqin Zhou, Antonio Amorim, Ken Carslaw, Joachim Curtius, Armin Hansel, Rainer Volkamer, Paul M. Winkler, Richard C. Flagan, Markku Kulmala, Douglas R. Worsnop, Jasper Kirkby, Neil M. Donahue, Urs Baltensperger, Imad El Haddad, and Josef Dommen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14275–14291, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14275-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Experiments at CLOUD show that in polluted environments new particle formation (NPF) is largely driven by the formation of sulfuric acid–base clusters, stabilized by amines, high ammonia concentrations or lower temperatures. While oxidation products of aromatics can nucleate, they play a minor role in urban NPF. Our experiments span 4 orders of magnitude variation of observed NPF rates in ambient conditions. We provide a framework based on NPF and growth rates to interpret ambient observations.
Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Yves Balkanski, Samuel Albani, Tommi Bergman, Ken Carslaw, Anne Cozic, Chris Dearden, Beatrice Marticorena, Martine Michou, Twan van Noije, Pierre Nabat, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Joseph M. Prospero, Philippe Le Sager, Michael Schulz, and Catherine Scott
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10295–10335, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Thousands of tons of dust are emitted into the atmosphere every year, producing important impacts on the Earth system. However, current global climate models are not yet able to reproduce dust emissions, transport and depositions with the desirable accuracy. Our study analyses five different Earth system models to report aspects to be improved to reproduce better available observations, increase the consistency between models and therefore decrease the current uncertainties.
Rachel E. Hawker, Annette K. Miltenberger, Jonathan M. Wilkinson, Adrian A. Hill, Ben J. Shipway, Zhiqiang Cui, Richard J. Cotton, Ken S. Carslaw, Paul R. Field, and Benjamin J. Murray
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5439–5461, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5439-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5439-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of aerosols on clouds is a large source of uncertainty for future climate projections. Our results show that the radiative properties of a complex convective cloud field in the Saharan outflow region are sensitive to the temperature dependence of ice-nucleating particle concentrations. This means that differences in the aerosol source or composition, for the same aerosol size distribution, can cause differences in the outgoing radiation from regions dominated by tropical convection.
Ananth Ranjithkumar, Hamish Gordon, Christina Williamson, Andrew Rollins, Kirsty Pringle, Agnieszka Kupc, Nathan Luke Abraham, Charles Brock, and Ken Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4979–5014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4979-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4979-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The effect aerosols have on climate can be better understood by studying their vertical and spatial distribution throughout the atmosphere. We use observation data from the ATom campaign and evaluate the vertical profile of aerosol number concentration, sulfur dioxide and condensation sink using the UKESM (UK Earth System Model). We identify uncertainties in key atmospheric processes that help improve their theoretical representation in global climate models.
Kamalika Sengupta, Kirsty Pringle, Jill S. Johnson, Carly Reddington, Jo Browse, Catherine E. Scott, and Ken Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2693–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2693-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2693-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Global models consistently underestimate atmospheric secondary organic aerosol (SOA), which has significant climatic implications. We use a perturbed parameter model ensemble and ground-based observations to reduce the uncertainty in modelling SOA formation from oxidation of volatile organic compounds. We identify plausible parameter spaces for the yields of extremely low-volatility, low-volatility, and semi-volatile organic compounds based on model–observation match for three key model outputs.
Elody Fluck, Michael Kunz, Peter Geissbuehler, and Stefan P. Ritz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 683–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-683-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Severe convective storms (SCSs) and the related hail events constitute major atmospheric hazards in parts of Europe. In our study, we identified the regions of France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg that were most affected by hail over a 10 year period (2005 to 2014). A cell-tracking algorithm was computed on remote-sensing data to enable the reconstruction of several thousand SCS tracks. The location of hail hotspots will help us understand hail formation and improve hail forecasting.
Jim M. Haywood, Steven J. Abel, Paul A. Barrett, Nicolas Bellouin, Alan Blyth, Keith N. Bower, Melissa Brooks, Ken Carslaw, Haochi Che, Hugh Coe, Michael I. Cotterell, Ian Crawford, Zhiqiang Cui, Nicholas Davies, Beth Dingley, Paul Field, Paola Formenti, Hamish Gordon, Martin de Graaf, Ross Herbert, Ben Johnson, Anthony C. Jones, Justin M. Langridge, Florent Malavelle, Daniel G. Partridge, Fanny Peers, Jens Redemann, Philip Stier, Kate Szpek, Jonathan W. Taylor, Duncan Watson-Parris, Robert Wood, Huihui Wu, and Paquita Zuidema
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1049–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1049-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1049-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Every year, the seasonal cycle of biomass burning from agricultural practices in Africa creates a huge plume of smoke that travels many thousands of kilometres over the Atlantic Ocean. This study provides an overview of a measurement campaign called the cloud–aerosol–radiation interaction and forcing for year 2017 (CLARIFY-2017) and documents the rationale, deployment strategy, observations, and key results from the campaign which utilized the heavily equipped FAAM atmospheric research aircraft.
Benjamin J. Murray, Kenneth S. Carslaw, and Paul R. Field
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 665–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-665-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-665-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The balance between the amounts of ice and supercooled water in clouds over the world's oceans strongly influences how much these clouds can dampen or amplify global warming. Aerosol particles which catalyse ice formation can dramatically reduce the amount of supercooled water in clouds; hence we argue that we need a concerted effort to improve our understanding of these ice-nucleating particles if we are to improve our predictions of climate change.
Jane P. Mulcahy, Colin Johnson, Colin G. Jones, Adam C. Povey, Catherine E. Scott, Alistair Sellar, Steven T. Turnock, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Nathan Luke Abraham, Martin B. Andrews, Nicolas Bellouin, Jo Browse, Ken S. Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Matthew Glover, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Catherine Hardacre, Richard Hill, Ben Johnson, Andy Jones, Zak Kipling, Graham Mann, James Mollard, Fiona M. O'Connor, Julien Palmiéri, Carly Reddington, Steven T. Rumbold, Mark Richardson, Nick A. J. Schutgens, Philip Stier, Marc Stringer, Yongming Tang, Jeremy Walton, Stephanie Woodward, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6383–6423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are an important component of the Earth system. Here, we comprehensively document and evaluate the aerosol schemes as implemented in the physical and Earth system models, HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1. This study provides a useful characterisation of the aerosol climatology in both models, facilitating the understanding of the numerous aerosol–climate interaction studies that will be conducted for CMIP6 and beyond.
Daniel P. Grosvenor and Kenneth S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15681–15724, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15681-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15681-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Particles arising from human activity interact with clouds and affect how much of the Sun's energy is reflected away. Lack of understanding about how to represent this in models leads to large uncertainties in climate predictions. We quantify cloud responses to particles in the latest UK Met Office climate model over the North Atlantic Ocean, showing that, in contrast to suggestions elsewhere, increases in cloud coverage and thickness are important over large areas.
Lukas O. Muser, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Julia Bruckert, Ákos Horváth, Elizaveta Malinina, Sandra Wallis, Fred J. Prata, Alexei Rozanov, Christian von Savigny, Heike Vogel, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15015–15036, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15015-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15015-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic aerosols endanger aircraft and thus disrupt air travel globally. For aviation safety, it is vital to know the location and lifetime of such aerosols in the atmosphere. Here we show that the interaction of volcanic particles with each other eventually reduces their atmospheric lifetime. Moreover, we demonstrate that sunlight heats these particles, which lifts them several kilometers in the atmosphere. These findings support a more reliable forecast of volcanic aerosol dispersion.
Sandip S. Dhomse, Graham W. Mann, Juan Carlos Antuña Marrero, Sarah E. Shallcross, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Lauren Marshall, N. Luke Abraham, and Colin E. Johnson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13627–13654, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13627-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We confirm downward adjustment of SO2 emission to simulate the Pinatubo aerosol cloud with aerosol microphysics models. Similar adjustment is also needed to simulate the El Chichón and Agung volcanic cloud, indicating potential missing removal or vertical redistribution process in models. Important inhomogeneities in the CMIP6 forcing datasets after Agung and El Chichón eruptions are difficult to reconcile. Quasi-biennial oscillation plays an important role in modifying stratospheric warming.
Hamish Gordon, Paul R. Field, Steven J. Abel, Paul Barrett, Keith Bower, Ian Crawford, Zhiqiang Cui, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Adrian A. Hill, Jonathan Taylor, Jonathan Wilkinson, Huihui Wu, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10997–11024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10997-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10997-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Met Office's Unified Model is widely used both for weather forecasting and climate prediction. We present the first version of the model in which both aerosol and cloud particle mass and number concentrations are allowed to evolve separately and independently, which is important for studying how aerosols affect weather and climate. We test the model against aircraft observations near Ascension Island in the Atlantic, focusing on how aerosols can "activate" to become cloud droplets.
Leighton A. Regayre, Julia Schmale, Jill S. Johnson, Christian Tatzelt, Andrea Baccarini, Silvia Henning, Masaru Yoshioka, Frank Stratmann, Martin Gysel-Beer, Daniel P. Grosvenor, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10063–10072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10063-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10063-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The amount of energy reflected back into space because of man-made particles is highly uncertain. Processes related to naturally occurring particles cause most of the uncertainty, but these processes are poorly constrained by present-day measurements. We show that measurements over the Southern Ocean, far from pollution sources, efficiently reduce climate model uncertainties. Our results pave the way to designing experiments and measurement campaigns that reduce this uncertainty even further.
Jill S. Johnson, Leighton A. Regayre, Masaru Yoshioka, Kirsty J. Pringle, Steven T. Turnock, Jo Browse, David M. H. Sexton, John W. Rostron, Nick A. J. Schutgens, Daniel G. Partridge, Dantong Liu, James D. Allan, Hugh Coe, Aijun Ding, David D. Cohen, Armand Atanacio, Ville Vakkari, Eija Asmi, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9491–9524, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9491-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9491-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use over 9000 monthly aggregated grid-box measurements of aerosol to constrain the uncertainty in the HadGEM3-UKCA climate model. Measurements of AOD, PM2.5, particle number concentrations, sulfate and organic mass concentrations are compared to 1 million
variantsof the model using an implausibility metric. Despite many compensating effects in the model, the procedure constrains the probability distributions of many parameters, and direct radiative forcing uncertainty is reduced by 34 %.
Susanna Mohr, Jannik Wilhelm, Jan Wandel, Michael Kunz, Raphael Portmann, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Manuel Schmidberger, Julian F. Quinting, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 325–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated an exceptional thunderstorm episode in 2018, in which atmospheric blocking provided large-scale environmental conditions favouring convection. Furthermore, blocking was accompanied by a high cut-off frequency on its upstream side, which together with filaments of high PV provided the mesoscale setting for deep moist convection. The exceptional persistence of low stability combined with weak wind speed in the mid-troposphere over more than 3 weeks has never been observed before.
Barbara Altstädter, Konrad Deetz, Bernhard Vogel, Karmen Babić, Cheikh Dione, Federica Pacifico, Corinne Jambert, Friederike Ebus, Konrad Bärfuss, Falk Pätzold, Astrid Lampert, Bianca Adler, Norbert Kalthoff, and Fabienne Lohou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7911–7928, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7911-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7911-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present the high vertical variability of the black carbon (BC) mass concentration measured with the unmanned aerial system ALADINA during the field experiment of DACCIWA. The COSMO-ART model output was applied for the campaign period and is compared with the observational BC data during a case study on 14–15 July 2016. Enhanced BC concentrations were related to transport processes to the measurement site by maritime inflow and not to local emissions as initially expected.
Michael Kunz, Jan Wandel, Elody Fluck, Sven Baumstark, Susanna Mohr, and Sebastian Schemm
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1867–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Severe convective storms are major loss drivers across Europe. We reconstructed several thousand storm tracks from radar reflectivity over a 10-year period for parts of Europe. The tracks were additionally combined with hail reports, reanalysis data, and front detections based on ERA-Interim (ECMWF Reanalysis). It is found that frontal hailstorms on average produce larger hailstones and have longer tracks and that wind shear is important not only for the hail diameter but also for track length.
Dominik Stolzenburg, Mario Simon, Ananth Ranjithkumar, Andreas Kürten, Katrianne Lehtipalo, Hamish Gordon, Sebastian Ehrhart, Henning Finkenzeller, Lukas Pichelstorfer, Tuomo Nieminen, Xu-Cheng He, Sophia Brilke, Mao Xiao, António Amorim, Rima Baalbaki, Andrea Baccarini, Lisa Beck, Steffen Bräkling, Lucía Caudillo Murillo, Dexian Chen, Biwu Chu, Lubna Dada, António Dias, Josef Dommen, Jonathan Duplissy, Imad El Haddad, Lukas Fischer, Loic Gonzalez Carracedo, Martin Heinritzi, Changhyuk Kim, Theodore K. Koenig, Weimeng Kong, Houssni Lamkaddam, Chuan Ping Lee, Markus Leiminger, Zijun Li, Vladimir Makhmutov, Hanna E. Manninen, Guillaume Marie, Ruby Marten, Tatjana Müller, Wei Nie, Eva Partoll, Tuukka Petäjä, Joschka Pfeifer, Maxim Philippov, Matti P. Rissanen, Birte Rörup, Siegfried Schobesberger, Simone Schuchmann, Jiali Shen, Mikko Sipilä, Gerhard Steiner, Yuri Stozhkov, Christian Tauber, Yee Jun Tham, António Tomé, Miguel Vazquez-Pufleau, Andrea C. Wagner, Mingyi Wang, Yonghong Wang, Stefan K. Weber, Daniela Wimmer, Peter J. Wlasits, Yusheng Wu, Qing Ye, Marcel Zauner-Wieczorek, Urs Baltensperger, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Joachim Curtius, Neil M. Donahue, Richard C. Flagan, Armin Hansel, Markku Kulmala, Jos Lelieveld, Rainer Volkamer, Jasper Kirkby, and Paul M. Winkler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7359–7372, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7359-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7359-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Sulfuric acid is a major atmospheric vapour for aerosol formation. If new particles grow fast enough, they can act as cloud droplet seeds or affect air quality. In a controlled laboratory set-up, we demonstrate that van der Waals forces enhance growth from sulfuric acid. We disentangle the effects of ammonia, ions and particle hydration, presenting a complete picture of sulfuric acid growth from molecular clusters onwards. In a climate model, we show its influence on the global aerosol budget.
Montserrat Costa-Surós, Odran Sourdeval, Claudia Acquistapace, Holger Baars, Cintia Carbajal Henken, Christa Genz, Jonas Hesemann, Cristofer Jimenez, Marcel König, Jan Kretzschmar, Nils Madenach, Catrin I. Meyer, Roland Schrödner, Patric Seifert, Fabian Senf, Matthias Brueck, Guido Cioni, Jan Frederik Engels, Kerstin Fieg, Ksenia Gorges, Rieke Heinze, Pavan Kumar Siligam, Ulrike Burkhardt, Susanne Crewell, Corinna Hoose, Axel Seifert, Ina Tegen, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5657–5678, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5657-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5657-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of anthropogenic aerosols on clouds is a key uncertainty in climate change. This study analyses large-domain simulations with a new high-resolution model to investigate the differences in clouds between 1985 and 2013 comparing multiple observational datasets. The differences in aerosol and in cloud droplet concentrations are clearly detectable. For other quantities, the detection and attribution proved difficult, despite a substantial impact on the Earth's energy budget.
Alima Dajuma, Kehinde O. Ogunjobi, Heike Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Siélé Silué, Evelyne Touré N'Datchoh, Véronique Yoboué, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5373–5390, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5373-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A modeling study through COSMO-ART was used to investigate the implication of downward mixing induced by clouds in transporting biomass burning aerosols from central and southern Africa located between 2 and 4 km into the PBL over southern West Africa. Results showed that individual mixing events south of the coast of Côte d’Ivoire due to mid-level convective clouds injects part of the biomass burning plume into the PBL. 15 % of CO mass from the 2–4 km layer is mixed below 1 km.
Christian Barthlott and Andrew I. Barrett
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 207–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-207-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-207-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The mesoscale convective system (MCS) that affected Germany at Pentecost 2014 was one of the most severe for decades. However, the predictability of this system was very low. By moving the model domain by just one grid point changed whether the MCS was successfully simulated or not. The decisive factor seems to be small differences in the initial track of the convection: cooler air near the coast inhibited development there, but tracks slightly more inland found more favorable conditions.
Philip J. Ward, Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, Susanna F. Jenkins, Dalia Kirschbaum, Michael Kunz, Susanna Mohr, Sanne Muis, Graeme A. Riddell, Andreas Schäfer, Thomas Stanley, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards and identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales.
Sophie L. Haslett, Jonathan W. Taylor, Mathew Evans, Eleanor Morris, Bernhard Vogel, Alima Dajuma, Joel Brito, Anneke M. Batenburg, Stephan Borrmann, Johannes Schneider, Christiane Schulz, Cyrielle Denjean, Thierry Bourrianne, Peter Knippertz, Régis Dupuy, Alfons Schwarzenböck, Daniel Sauer, Cyrille Flamant, James Dorsey, Ian Crawford, and Hugh Coe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15217–15234, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15217-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15217-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Three aircraft datasets from the DACCIWA campaign in summer 2016 are used here to show there is a background mass of pollution present in the lower atmosphere in southern West Africa. We suggest that this likely comes from biomass burning in central and southern Africa, which has been carried into the region over the Atlantic Ocean. This would have a negative health impact on populations living near the coast and may alter the impact of growing city emissions on cloud formation and the monsoon.
Xiaoli Shen, Heike Vogel, Bernhard Vogel, Wei Huang, Claudia Mohr, Ramakrishna Ramisetty, Thomas Leisner, André S. H. Prévôt, and Harald Saathoff
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13189–13208, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13189-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides good insight into the chemical nature and complex origin of aerosols by combining comprehensive field observations and transport modelling. We suggest that factors related to topography, metrological conditions, local emissions, in situ formation and growth, regional transport, and the interaction of biogenic and anthropogenic compounds need to be considered for a comprehensive understanding of aerosol processes.
Linda Schneider, Christian Barthlott, Corinna Hoose, and Andrew I. Barrett
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12343–12359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12343-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12343-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study addresses the relative impact of orography, soil moisture, and aerosols on precipitation over Germany in different weather regimes. We find that the impact of these perturbations is higher for weak than for strong large-scale forcing. Furthermore, aerosols and soil moisture are both of similar importance for precipitation forecasting, which indicates that their inclusion in operational ensemble forecasting should be assessed in the future.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Nick Schutgens, Carly Reddington, Kirsty J. Pringle, Dantong Liu, James D. Allan, Hugh Coe, Ken S. Carslaw, and Philip Stier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11765–11790, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11765-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11765-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The vertical distribution of aerosol in the atmosphere affects its ability to act as cloud condensation nuclei and changes the amount of sunlight it absorbs or reflects. Common global measurements of aerosol provide no information about this vertical distribution. Using a global collection of in situ aircraft measurements to compare with an aerosol–climate model (ECHAM-HAM), we explore the key processes controlling this distribution and find that wet removal plays a key role.
Franziska Glassmeier, Fabian Hoffmann, Jill S. Johnson, Takanobu Yamaguchi, Ken S. Carslaw, and Graham Feingold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10191–10203, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10191-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10191-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The climatic relevance of aerosol–cloud interactions depends on the sensitivity of the radiative effect of clouds to certain cloud properties. We derive the dependence of cloud fraction, cloud albedo, and the relative cloud radiative effect on the number of cloud droplets and on liquid water path from a large set of detailed simulations of stratocumulus clouds.
George S. Fanourgakis, Maria Kanakidou, Athanasios Nenes, Susanne E. Bauer, Tommi Bergman, Ken S. Carslaw, Alf Grini, Douglas S. Hamilton, Jill S. Johnson, Vlassis A. Karydis, Alf Kirkevåg, John K. Kodros, Ulrike Lohmann, Gan Luo, Risto Makkonen, Hitoshi Matsui, David Neubauer, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Julia Schmale, Philip Stier, Kostas Tsigaridis, Twan van Noije, Hailong Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Yang Yang, Masaru Yoshioka, Nikos Daskalakis, Stefano Decesari, Martin Gysel-Beer, Nikos Kalivitis, Xiaohong Liu, Natalie M. Mahowald, Stelios Myriokefalitakis, Roland Schrödner, Maria Sfakianaki, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Mingxuan Wu, and Fangqun Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8591–8617, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8591-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8591-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Effects of aerosols on clouds are important for climate studies but are among the largest uncertainties in climate projections. This study evaluates the skill of global models to simulate aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNCs). Model results show reduced spread in CDNC compared to CCN due to the negative correlation between the sensitivities of CDNC to aerosol number concentration (air pollution) and updraft velocity (atmospheric dynamics).
Stephanie Fiedler, Stefan Kinne, Wan Ting Katty Huang, Petri Räisänen, Declan O'Donnell, Nicolas Bellouin, Philip Stier, Joonas Merikanto, Twan van Noije, Risto Makkonen, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6821–6841, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6821-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6821-2019, 2019
David Walters, Anthony J. Baran, Ian Boutle, Malcolm Brooks, Paul Earnshaw, John Edwards, Kalli Furtado, Peter Hill, Adrian Lock, James Manners, Cyril Morcrette, Jane Mulcahy, Claudio Sanchez, Chris Smith, Rachel Stratton, Warren Tennant, Lorenzo Tomassini, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Simon Vosper, Martin Willett, Jo Browse, Andrew Bushell, Kenneth Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Richard Essery, Nicola Gedney, Steven Hardiman, Ben Johnson, Colin Johnson, Andy Jones, Colin Jones, Graham Mann, Sean Milton, Heather Rumbold, Alistair Sellar, Masashi Ujiie, Michael Whitall, Keith Williams, and Mohamed Zerroukat
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1909–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Global Atmosphere (GA) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and Global Land (GL) configurations of JULES are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application. We describe a recent iteration of these configurations, GA7/GL7, which includes new aerosol and snow schemes and addresses the four critical errors identified in GA6. GA7/GL7 will underpin the UK's contributions to CMIP6, and hence their documentation is important.
Andrew I. Barrett, Christopher D. Westbrook, John C. Nicol, and Thorwald H. M. Stein
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5753–5769, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5753-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5753-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We use radars at three wavelengths to study cloud properties. The full Doppler spectra (rather than calculated averages of the spectra) are compared for the radars. This allows us to estimate the size and number of ice particles within the cloud. By following the evolution of the ice particles, we observe a region where particles rapidly and consistently increase in size. The observations suggest that these large particles form through interlocking of branched arms of smaller ice particles.
Maiken Vassel, Luisa Ickes, Marion Maturilli, and Corinna Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5111–5126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5111-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5111-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Multilayer clouds are coexisting clouds at different heights. We evaluate measurements and find that Arctic multilayer clouds occur in 29 % of the investigated days at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. Multilayer clouds can interact by ice crystals falling from the upper cloud into the lower cloud. This is possible in 23 % of the investigated days, and in 9 % it is not possible. Weather models are still error-prone in the Arctic and we suggest that multilayer clouds should be included more in future work.
Florian Ehmele and Michael Kunz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1083–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1083-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1083-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The risk estimation of precipitation events with high recurrence periods is difficult due to the limited timescale with meteorological observations and an inhomogeneous distribution of rain gauges, especially in mountainous terrains. In this study a spatially high resolved analytical model, designed for stochastic simulations of flood-related precipitation, is developed and applied to an investigation area in Germany but is transferable to other areas. High conformity with observations is found.
Sophie L. Haslett, Jonathan W. Taylor, Konrad Deetz, Bernhard Vogel, Karmen Babić, Norbert Kalthoff, Andreas Wieser, Cheikh Dione, Fabienne Lohou, Joel Brito, Régis Dupuy, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Paul Zieger, and Hugh Coe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1505–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1505-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1505-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
As the population in West Africa grows and air pollution increases, it is becoming ever more important to understand the effects of this pollution on the climate and on health. Aerosol particles can grow by absorbing water from the air around them. This paper shows that during the monsoon season, aerosol particles in the region are likely to grow significantly because of the high moisture in the air. This means that climate effects from increasing pollution will be enhanced.
Michael Weger, Bernd Heinold, Christa Engler, Ulrich Schumann, Axel Seifert, Romy Fößig, Christiane Voigt, Holger Baars, Ulrich Blahak, Stephan Borrmann, Corinna Hoose, Stefan Kaufmann, Martina Krämer, Patric Seifert, Fabian Senf, Johannes Schneider, and Ina Tegen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17545–17572, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17545-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17545-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of desert dust on cloud formation is investigated for a major Saharan dust event over Europe by interactive regional dust modeling. Dust particles are very efficient ice-nucleating particles promoting the formation of ice crystals in clouds. The simulations show that the observed extensive cirrus development was likely related to the above-average dust load. The interactive dust–cloud feedback in the model significantly improves the agreement with aircraft and satellite observations.
Sylvia C. Sullivan, Christian Barthlott, Jonathan Crosier, Ilya Zhukov, Athanasios Nenes, and Corinna Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16461–16480, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16461-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16461-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Ice crystal formation in clouds can occur via thermodynamic nucleation, but also via mechanical collisions between pre-existing crystals or co-existing droplets. When descriptions of this mechanical ice generation are implemented into the COSMO weather model, we find that the contributions to crystal number from thermodynamic and mechanical processes are of the same order. Mechanical ice generation also intensifies differences in precipitation intensity between dynamic and quiescent regions.
Meng Si, Victoria E. Irish, Ryan H. Mason, Jesús Vergara-Temprado, Sarah J. Hanna, Luis A. Ladino, Jacqueline D. Yakobi-Hancock, Corinne L. Schiller, Jeremy J. B. Wentzell, Jonathan P. D. Abbatt, Ken S. Carslaw, Benjamin J. Murray, and Allan K. Bertram
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15669–15685, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15669-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15669-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Using the concentrations of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) and total aerosol particles measured at three coastal marine sites, the ice-nucleating ability of aerosol particles on a per number basis and a per surface-area basis were determined as a function of size. The ice-nucleating ability was strongly dependent on size, with larger particles being more efficient. This type of information can help determine the sources of INPs and constrain the future modelling of INPs and mixed-phase clouds.
Matthias Hummel, Corinna Hoose, Bernhard Pummer, Caroline Schaupp, Janine Fröhlich-Nowoisky, and Ottmar Möhler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15437–15450, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15437-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15437-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
How important for clouds is the ability of biological particles to glaciate droplets at little supercooling? In a case study, the regional atmospheric model COSMO–ART is used. Perturbed and control runs are compared.
The number of ice particles that are nucleated by biological particles is highest at around −10 °C. No significant influence on the average state of the cloud ice phase was found. However, the number of ice crystals is slightly enhanced in the absence of other ice nucleators.
Hamish Gordon, Paul R. Field, Steven J. Abel, Mohit Dalvi, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Adrian A. Hill, Ben T. Johnson, Annette K. Miltenberger, Masaru Yoshioka, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15261–15289, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15261-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15261-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Smoke from African fires is frequently transported across the Atlantic Ocean, where it interacts with clouds. We simulate the interaction of the smoke with the clouds, and the consequences of this for the solar radiation the clouds reflect. The simulations use a new regional configuration of the UK Met Office climate model. Our simulations indicate that the properties of the clouds, in particular their height and reflectivity, and the fractional cloud cover, are strongly affected by the smoke.
Konrad Deetz, Heike Vogel, Sophie Haslett, Peter Knippertz, Hugh Coe, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14271–14295, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14271-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14271-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Water uptake can significantly increase the size and therefore alters the optical properties of aerosols. Our model study reveals that the high moisture and aerosol burden in the southern West African monsoon
layer makes it favorable to quantify properties that determine the aerosol liquid water content and its impact on the aerosol optical depth and radiative transfer. Especially in moist tropical environments the relative humidity impact on AOD has to be considered in atmospheric models.
Jennifer Schröter, Daniel Rieger, Christian Stassen, Heike Vogel, Michael Weimer, Sven Werchner, Jochen Förstner, Florian Prill, Daniel Reinert, Günther Zängl, Marco Giorgetta, Roland Ruhnke, Bernhard Vogel, and Peter Braesicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4043–4068, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4043-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4043-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we introduce the most up-to-date version of the flexible tracer framework for the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model with
Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases (ICON-ART).
We performed multiple simulations using different ICON physics configurations for weather and climate with ART.
The flexible tracer framework within ICON-ART 2.1 suits the demands of a large variety of different applications ranging from numerical weather prediction to climate integrations.
Michael Schäfer, Katharina Loewe, André Ehrlich, Corinna Hoose, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13115–13133, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13115-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13115-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Airborne observed horizontal fields of cloud optical thickness are compared with semi-idealized large eddy simulations of Arctic stratus. The comparison focuses on horizontal cloud inhomogeneities and directional features of the small-scale cloud structures. Using inhomogeneity parameters and autocorrelation analysis it is investigated, if the observed small-scale cloud inhomogeneities can be represented by the model. Forcings for cloud inhomogeneities are investigated in a sensitivity study.
Jill S. Johnson, Leighton A. Regayre, Masaru Yoshioka, Kirsty J. Pringle, Lindsay A. Lee, David M. H. Sexton, John W. Rostron, Ben B. B. Booth, and Kenneth S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13031–13053, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13031-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13031-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate the uncertainty in an aerosol–climate model that has been tuned to match several common types of observations. We used a large set of model simulations and built emulators so that we could generate 4 million “variants” of our climate model. Even after using nine aerosol and cloud observations to constrain the model, the uncertainty remains large. We conclude that estimates of aerosol forcing from multi-model studies are likely to be more uncertain than currently estimated.
Robin G. Stevens, Katharina Loewe, Christopher Dearden, Antonios Dimitrelos, Anna Possner, Gesa K. Eirund, Tomi Raatikainen, Adrian A. Hill, Benjamin J. Shipway, Jonathan Wilkinson, Sami Romakkaniemi, Juha Tonttila, Ari Laaksonen, Hannele Korhonen, Paul Connolly, Ulrike Lohmann, Corinna Hoose, Annica M. L. Ekman, Ken S. Carslaw, and Paul R. Field
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11041–11071, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11041-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11041-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We perform a model intercomparison of summertime high Arctic clouds. Observed concentrations of aerosol particles necessary for cloud formation fell to extremely low values, coincident with a transition from cloudy to nearly cloud-free conditions. Previous analyses have suggested that at these low concentrations, the radiative properties of the clouds are determined primarily by these particle concentrations. The model results strongly support this hypothesis.
Leighton A. Regayre, Jill S. Johnson, Masaru Yoshioka, Kirsty J. Pringle, David M. H. Sexton, Ben B. B. Booth, Lindsay A. Lee, Nicolas Bellouin, and Kenneth S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9975–10006, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9975-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9975-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We sample uncertainty in one climate model by perturbing aerosol and physical atmosphere parameters. Our uncertainty is comparable to multi-model studies. Atmospheric parameters cause most of the top-of-atmosphere flux uncertainty; uncertainty in aerosol forcing is mostly caused by aerosols: both are important. The strongest aerosol forcings are inconsistent with top-of-atmosphere flux observations. Better constraint requires observations that share causes of uncertainty with aerosol forcing.
Konrad Deetz, Heike Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Bianca Adler, Jonathan Taylor, Hugh Coe, Keith Bower, Sophie Haslett, Michael Flynn, James Dorsey, Ian Crawford, Christoph Kottmeier, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9767–9788, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9767-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9767-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Highly resolved process study simulations for 2–3 July are conducted with COSMO-ART to assess the aerosol direct and indirect effect on meteorological conditions over southern West Africa. The meteorological phenomena of Atlantic inflow and stratus-to-cumulus transition are identified as highly susceptible to the aerosol direct effect, leading to a spatial shift of the Atlantic inflow front and a temporal shift of the stratus-to-cumulus transition with changes in the aerosol amount.
Simon Gruber, Simon Unterstrasser, Jan Bechtold, Heike Vogel, Martin Jung, Henry Pak, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6393–6411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6393-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6393-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A numerical model also used for operational weather forecast was applied to investigate the impact of contrails and contrail cirrus on the radiative fluxes at the earth's surface. Accounting for contrails produced by aircraft enables the model to simulate high clouds that are otherwise missing. In a case study, we find that the effect of these extra clouds is to reduce the incoming shortwave radiation at the surface as well as the production of photovoltaic power by up to 10 %.
Kai Schröter, Daniela Molinari, Michael Kunz, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 963–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-963-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-963-2018, 2018
Lauren Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Ken S. Carslaw, Graham W. Mann, Michael Sigl, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Davide Zanchettin, William T. Ball, Slimane Bekki, James S. A. Brooke, Sandip Dhomse, Colin Johnson, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, James O. Pope, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use four global aerosol models to compare the simulated sulfate deposition from the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption to ice core records. Inter-model volcanic sulfate deposition differs considerably. Volcanic sulfate deposited on polar ice sheets is used to estimate the atmospheric sulfate burden and subsequently radiative forcing of historic eruptions. Our results suggest that deriving such relationships from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.
Sylvia C. Sullivan, Corinna Hoose, Alexei Kiselev, Thomas Leisner, and Athanasios Nenes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1593–1610, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1593-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1593-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Ice multiplication (IM) processes can have a profound impact on cloud and precipitation development but are poorly understood. Here we study whether a lower limit of ice nuclei exists to initiate IM. The lower limit is found to be extremely low (0.01 per liter or less). A counterintuitive but profound conclusion thus emerges: IM requires cloud formation around a thermodynamic
sweet spotand is sensitive to fluctuations in cloud condensation nuclei concentration alone.
Luke B. Hande and Corinna Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14105–14118, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14105-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14105-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, the relative contributions of different primary ice nucleation modes (i.e. processes leading to the formation of ice crystals with or without the help of certain aerosol particles, in this case mineral dust) are quantified in model simulations for different cloud types.
Philipp Gasch, Daniel Rieger, Carolin Walter, Pavel Khain, Yoav Levi, Peter Knippertz, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13573–13604, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13573-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents simulations of a severe dust event in the Eastern Mediterranean with a weather prediction model using very high spatial resolution. Due to the high resolution, the small-scale features of the event are captured in great detail. Consequently, the previously erroneous forecast of the event is improved drastically. In addition, the interaction of mineral dust with radiation inside the model has been included as a part of this work and is presented here.
Daniel Rieger, Andrea Steiner, Vanessa Bachmann, Philipp Gasch, Jochen Förstner, Konrad Deetz, Bernhard Vogel, and Heike Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13391–13415, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13391-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13391-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The importance for reliable forecasts of incoming solar radiation is growing rapidly, especially for those countries with an increasing share in photovoltaic (PV) power production. We investigate the impact of mineral dust on the PV power generation during a Saharan dust outbreak over Germany on 4 April 2014. We find an overall improvement of the PV power forecast for 65 % of the pyranometer stations in Germany.
Eleni Athanasopoulou, Orestis Speyer, Dominik Brunner, Heike Vogel, Bernhard Vogel, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, and Evangelos Gerasopoulos
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10597–10618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10597-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10597-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This work focuses on the impact of residential wood burning on aerosol levels, composition and radiation under the ongoing economic crisis in Greece. The atmospheric model COSMO-ART performed a series of runs during the winter of 2013–2014. Emission inputs were revised according to the detailed aerosol characterization by local measurements. Aerosol levels were found to be elevated and mostly composed of organics, yet the timing of the plume justifies the minor radiative cooling and feedbacks.
David Piper and Michael Kunz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1319–1336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1319-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1319-2017, 2017
Franziska Glassmeier, Anna Possner, Bernhard Vogel, Heike Vogel, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8651–8680, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8651-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8651-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We compare two chemistry and aerosol schemes – one designed for air-quality, the other for climate applications. For distribution, composition and radiative properties, the choice of aerosol types and processes turns out to be more important than their implementation. For aerosol–cloud interactions, we find cloud processes, in particular ice formation, to be the main obstacle to our understanding.
Michael Weimer, Jennifer Schröter, Johannes Eckstein, Konrad Deetz, Marco Neumaier, Garlich Fischbeck, Lu Hu, Dylan B. Millet, Daniel Rieger, Heike Vogel, Bernhard Vogel, Thomas Reddmann, Oliver Kirner, Roland Ruhnke, and Peter Braesicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2471–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2471-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2471-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, the recently developed module for trace gas emissions in the online coupled modelling framework ICON-ART for atmospheric chemistry is presented. Algorithms for offline and online calculation of the emissions are described. The module is validated with ground-based as well as airborne measurements of acetone. It is shown that the module performs well and allows the simulation of annual cycles of emission-driven trace gases.
Katharina Loewe, Annica M. L. Ekman, Marco Paukert, Joseph Sedlar, Michael Tjernström, and Corinna Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6693–6704, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6693-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6693-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Processes that affect Arctic mixed-phase cloud life cycle are extremely important for the surface energy budget. Three different sensitivity experiments mimic changes in the advection of air masses with different thermodynamic profiles and aerosol properties to find the potential mechanisms leading to the dissipation of the cloud. We found that the reduction of the cloud droplet number concentration was likely the primary contributor to the dissipation of the observed Arctic mixed-phase cloud.
Konrad Deetz and Bernhard Vogel
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1607–1620, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1607-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1607-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A new gas flaring emission data set for CO, CO2, NO, NO2 and SO2 has been developed, which combines remote sensing observations with combustion equations. The physically based parameterization can easily be applied to different research domains, e.g., to provide flaring emission datasets for chemistry models. Within the project DACCIWA, we have derived a flaring data set for southern West Africa and compared the results to pre-existing emission inventories.
Jesús Vergara-Temprado, Benjamin J. Murray, Theodore W. Wilson, Daniel O'Sullivan, Jo Browse, Kirsty J. Pringle, Karin Ardon-Dryer, Allan K. Bertram, Susannah M. Burrows, Darius Ceburnis, Paul J. DeMott, Ryan H. Mason, Colin D. O'Dowd, Matteo Rinaldi, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3637–3658, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3637-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3637-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the importance in the atmosphere of different aerosol components to contribute to global ice-nucleating particles concentrations (INPs). The aim is to improve the way atmospheric cloud-ice processes are represented in climate models so they will be able to make better predictions in the future. We found that a kind of dust (K-feldspar), together with marine organic aerosols, can help to improve the representation of INPs and explain most of their observations.
Céline Planche, Graham W. Mann, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, John H. Marsham, and Paul R. Field
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3371–3384, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3371-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3371-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A convection-permitting limited area model with prognostic aerosol microphysics is applied to investigate how concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the marine boundary layer are affected by high-resolution dynamical and thermodynamic fields at sub-climate model scale. We gain new insight into the way primary sea-salt and secondary sulfate particles contribute to the overall CCN variance, and find a marked difference in the variability of super- and sub-micron CCN.
David Piper, Michael Kunz, Florian Ehmele, Susanna Mohr, Bernhard Mühr, Andreas Kron, and James Daniell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2835–2850, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2835-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2835-2016, 2016
François Benduhn, Graham W. Mann, Kirsty J. Pringle, David O. Topping, Gordon McFiggans, and Kenneth S. Carslaw
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3875–3906, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3875-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3875-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new mathematical formalism that serves to represent exchanges of inorganic matter between the atmosphere gas phase and the aerosol aqueous phase. In a global modelling framework, taking into account these processes may help represent many important features more accurately, such as the formation of cloud droplets or the radiative properties of the atmosphere. The formalism strives to keep an appropriate balance between accuracy and computation efficiency requirements.
Leo J. Donner, Travis A. O'Brien, Daniel Rieger, Bernhard Vogel, and William F. Cooke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12983–12992, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12983-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12983-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainties in both climate forcing and sensitivity limit the extent to which climate projections can meet society's needs for actionable climate science. Advances in observing and modeling atmospheric vertical velocities provide a potential breakthrough in understanding climate forcing and sensitivity, with concurrent reductions in uncertainty.
Luke B. Hande, Christa Engler, Corinna Hoose, and Ina Tegen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12059–12079, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12059-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12059-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An aerosol model was used to simulate the concentration of natural and anthropogenic aerosols over Germany. Using a detailed parameterization of CCN activation, which includes information of aerosol chemical and physical properties, CCN concentrations were calculated. Using these results, a series of best fit functions were used to define a new parameterization, which is a simple function of vertical velocity and pressure. The new parameterization is easy to implement in models.
Carolin Walter, Saulo R. Freitas, Christoph Kottmeier, Isabel Kraut, Daniel Rieger, Heike Vogel, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9201–9219, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9201-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9201-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Buoyancy produced by vegetation fires can lead to substantial plume rise with consequences for the dispersion of aerosol emitted by the fires. To study this effect a 1-D plume rise model was included into the regional online integrated model system COSMO-ART. Comparing model results and satellite data for a case study of 2010 Canadian wildfires shows, that the plume rise model outperforms prescribed emission height. The radiative impact of the aerosol leads to a pronounced temperature change.
C. E. Scott, D. V. Spracklen, J. R. Pierce, I. Riipinen, S. D. D'Andrea, A. Rap, K. S. Carslaw, P. M. Forster, P. Artaxo, M. Kulmala, L. V. Rizzo, E. Swietlicki, G. W. Mann, and K. J. Pringle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12989–13001, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12989-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12989-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the radiative effects of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) it is necessary to consider the manner in which it is distributed across the existing aerosol size distribution. We explore the importance of the approach taken by global-scale models to do this, when calculating the direct radiative effect (DRE) & first aerosol indirect effect (AIE) due to biogenic SOA. This choice has little effect on the DRE, but a substantial impact on the magnitude and even sign of the first AIE
C. Barthlott and C. Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12361–12384, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12361-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12361-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the resolution dependance of clouds and precipitation over Germany by numerical simulations with the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling model for 7 cases of 2013. By means of a series of grid-refinement resolution tests, the variability of clouds and precipitation and how this variability changes with model resolution are investigated. The performance of the model at these resolutions is of general relevance to the research community as well as to operational forecasters
S. T. Turnock, D. V. Spracklen, K. S. Carslaw, G. W. Mann, M. T. Woodhouse, P. M. Forster, J. Haywood, C. E. Johnson, M. Dalvi, N. Bellouin, and A. Sanchez-Lorenzo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9477–9500, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9477-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9477-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate HadGEM3-UKCA over Europe for the period 1960-2009 against observations of aerosol mass and number, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface solar radiation (SSR). The model underestimates aerosol mass and number but is less biased if compared to AOD and SSR. Observed trends in aerosols are well simulated by the model and necessary for reproducing the observed increase in SSR since 1990. European all-sky top of atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing increased by > 3 Wm-2 from 1970 to 2009.
Y. Brugnara, R. Auchmann, S. Brönnimann, R. J. Allan, I. Auer, M. Barriendos, H. Bergström, J. Bhend, R. Brázdil, G. P. Compo, R. C. Cornes, F. Dominguez-Castro, A. F. V. van Engelen, J. Filipiak, J. Holopainen, S. Jourdain, M. Kunz, J. Luterbacher, M. Maugeri, L. Mercalli, A. Moberg, C. J. Mock, G. Pichard, L. Řezníčková, G. van der Schrier, V. Slonosky, Z. Ustrnul, M. A. Valente, A. Wypych, and X. Yin
Clim. Past, 11, 1027–1047, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A data set of instrumental pressure and temperature observations for the early instrumental period (before ca. 1850) is described. This is the result of a digitisation effort involving the period immediately after the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815, combined with the collection of already available sub-daily time series. The highest data availability is therefore for the years 1815 to 1817. An analysis of pressure variability and of case studies in Europe is performed for that period.
S. Fuzzi, U. Baltensperger, K. Carslaw, S. Decesari, H. Denier van der Gon, M. C. Facchini, D. Fowler, I. Koren, B. Langford, U. Lohmann, E. Nemitz, S. Pandis, I. Riipinen, Y. Rudich, M. Schaap, J. G. Slowik, D. V. Spracklen, E. Vignati, M. Wild, M. Williams, and S. Gilardoni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8217–8299, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8217-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8217-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Particulate matter (PM) constitutes one of the most challenging problems both for air quality and climate change policies. This paper reviews the most recent scientific results on the issue and the policy needs that have driven much of the increase in monitoring and mechanistic research over the last 2 decades. The synthesis reveals many new processes and developments in the science underpinning climate-PM interactions and the effects of PM on human health and the environment.
A. Franchin, S. Ehrhart, J. Leppä, T. Nieminen, S. Gagné, S. Schobesberger, D. Wimmer, J. Duplissy, F. Riccobono, E. M. Dunne, L. Rondo, A. Downard, F. Bianchi, A. Kupc, G. Tsagkogeorgas, K. Lehtipalo, H. E. Manninen, J. Almeida, A. Amorim, P. E. Wagner, A. Hansel, J. Kirkby, A. Kürten, N. M. Donahue, V. Makhmutov, S. Mathot, A. Metzger, T. Petäjä, R. Schnitzhofer, M. Sipilä, Y. Stozhkov, A. Tomé, V.-M. Kerminen, K. Carslaw, J. Curtius, U. Baltensperger, and M. Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7203–7216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7203-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7203-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The ion-ion recombination coefficient was measured at different temperatures, relative humidities and concentrations of ozone and sulfur dioxide. The experiments were carried out using the CLOUD chamber at CERN.
We observed a strong dependency on temperature and on relative humidity, which has not been reported previously. No dependency of the ion-ion recombination coefficient on ozone concentration was observed and a weak variation with sulfur dioxide concentration was also observed.
M. Hummel, C. Hoose, M. Gallagher, D. A. Healy, J. A. Huffman, D. O'Connor, U. Pöschl, C. Pöhlker, N. H. Robinson, M. Schnaiter, J. R. Sodeau, M. Stengel, E. Toprak, and H. Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6127–6146, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6127-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6127-2015, 2015
D. Rieger, M. Bangert, I. Bischoff-Gauss, J. Förstner, K. Lundgren, D. Reinert, J. Schröter, H. Vogel, G. Zängl, R. Ruhnke, and B. Vogel
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1659–1676, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1659-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1659-2015, 2015
L. B. Hande, C. Engler, C. Hoose, and I. Tegen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 4389–4397, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-4389-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-4389-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Dust is a significant aerosol on seasonal timescales. There are large differences in dust and INP concentrations between seasons. The INP concentrations have a different vertical distribution than other common parameterisations suggest. We provide a new formulation to estimate the INP particles formed on dust aerosols, for use in process studies and regional simulations over Europe. The new formulation captures a much more realistic seasonal variability and vertical profile.
I. Steinke, C. Hoose, O. Möhler, P. Connolly, and T. Leisner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3703–3717, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3703-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3703-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Ice nucleation in clouds has a significant influence on the global radiative budget and the hydrological cycle. Several studies have investigated the ice formation in droplets and parameterizations have been developed in order to include immersion freezing in climate models. In contrast, there are fewer studies regarding the conversion of water vapor into ice (so-called deposition nucleation) which is the topic of this paper which investigates deposition nucleation by Arizona Test dust in detail
K. Schröter, M. Kunz, F. Elmer, B. Mühr, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 309–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme antecedent precipitation, increased initial hydraulic load in the river network and strong but not extraordinary event precipitation were key drivers for the flood in June 2013 in Germany. Our results are based on extreme value statistics and aggregated severity indices which we evaluated for a set of 74 historic large-scale floods. This flood database and the methodological framework enable the rapid assessment of future floods using precipitation and discharge observations.
N. Hiranuma, M. Paukert, I. Steinke, K. Zhang, G. Kulkarni, C. Hoose, M. Schnaiter, H. Saathoff, and O. Möhler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13145–13158, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13145-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
A new heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization is developed and implemented in cloud models. The results of our simulations suggest stronger influence of dust particles lifted to the upper troposphere on heterogeneous nucleation and more ice nucleation at temperature and humidity conditions relevant to both mixed-phase and cirrus clouds when compared to the existing parametrical frameworks.
D. Neubauer, U. Lohmann, C. Hoose, and M. G. Frontoso
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11997–12022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11997-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11997-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Several biases in the representation of clouds in the stratocumulus regime in the ECHAM6-HAM2 global climate model were found by evaluating the model in the stratocumulus cloud regime. Simulations with changes in model resolution and physics to better represent clouds and aerosol in the stratocumulus regime show that the human influence on clouds and thus climate by emission of aerosol particles is sensitive to the representation of (stratocumulus) clouds.
S. S. Dhomse, K. M. Emmerson, G. W. Mann, N. Bellouin, K. S. Carslaw, M. P. Chipperfield, R. Hommel, N. L. Abraham, P. Telford, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, C. E. Johnson, F. O'Connor, O. Morgenstern, J. A. Pyle, T. Deshler, J. M. Zawodny, and L. W. Thomason
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11221–11246, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11221-2014, 2014
K. Tsigaridis, N. Daskalakis, M. Kanakidou, P. J. Adams, P. Artaxo, R. Bahadur, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, A. Benedetti, T. Bergman, T. K. Berntsen, J. P. Beukes, H. Bian, K. S. Carslaw, M. Chin, G. Curci, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, S. L. Gong, A. Hodzic, C. R. Hoyle, T. Iversen, S. Jathar, J. L. Jimenez, J. W. Kaiser, A. Kirkevåg, D. Koch, H. Kokkola, Y. H Lee, G. Lin, X. Liu, G. Luo, X. Ma, G. W. Mann, N. Mihalopoulos, J.-J. Morcrette, J.-F. Müller, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, N. L. Ng, D. O'Donnell, J. E. Penner, L. Pozzoli, K. J. Pringle, L. M. Russell, M. Schulz, J. Sciare, Ø. Seland, D. T. Shindell, S. Sillman, R. B. Skeie, D. Spracklen, T. Stavrakou, S. D. Steenrod, T. Takemura, P. Tiitta, S. Tilmes, H. Tost, T. van Noije, P. G. van Zyl, K. von Salzen, F. Yu, Z. Wang, Z. Wang, R. A. Zaveri, H. Zhang, K. Zhang, Q. Zhang, and X. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10845–10895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10845-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10845-2014, 2014
Y. Wang, X. Liu, C. Hoose, and B. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10411–10430, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10411-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10411-2014, 2014
M. Joly, P. Amato, L. Deguillaume, M. Monier, C. Hoose, and A.-M. Delort
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8185–8195, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8185-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8185-2014, 2014
H. Vogel, J. Förstner, B. Vogel, T. Hanisch, B. Mühr, U. Schättler, and T. Schad
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7837–7845, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7837-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7837-2014, 2014
J. Browse, K. S. Carslaw, G. W. Mann, C. E. Birch, S. R. Arnold, and C. Leck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7543–7557, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7543-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7543-2014, 2014
G. W. Mann, K. S. Carslaw, C. L. Reddington, K. J. Pringle, M. Schulz, A. Asmi, D. V. Spracklen, D. A. Ridley, M. T. Woodhouse, L. A. Lee, K. Zhang, S. J. Ghan, R. C. Easter, X. Liu, P. Stier, Y. H. Lee, P. J. Adams, H. Tost, J. Lelieveld, S. E. Bauer, K. Tsigaridis, T. P. C. van Noije, A. Strunk, E. Vignati, N. Bellouin, M. Dalvi, C. E. Johnson, T. Bergman, H. Kokkola, K. von Salzen, F. Yu, G. Luo, A. Petzold, J. Heintzenberg, A. Clarke, J. A. Ogren, J. Gras, U. Baltensperger, U. Kaminski, S. G. Jennings, C. D. O'Dowd, R. M. Harrison, D. C. S. Beddows, M. Kulmala, Y. Viisanen, V. Ulevicius, N. Mihalopoulos, V. Zdimal, M. Fiebig, H.-C. Hansson, E. Swietlicki, and J. S. Henzing
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4679–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4679-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4679-2014, 2014
C. Jiao, M. G. Flanner, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, K. S. Carslaw, M. Chin, N. De Luca, T. Diehl, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, A. Kirkevåg, D. Koch, X. Liu, G. W. Mann, J. E. Penner, G. Pitari, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, S. D. Steenrod, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, T. van Noije, Y. Yun, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2399–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2399-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2399-2014, 2014
C. E. Scott, A. Rap, D. V. Spracklen, P. M. Forster, K. S. Carslaw, G. W. Mann, K. J. Pringle, N. Kivekäs, M. Kulmala, H. Lihavainen, and P. Tunved
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 447–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-447-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-447-2014, 2014
A. Baklanov, K. Schlünzen, P. Suppan, J. Baldasano, D. Brunner, S. Aksoyoglu, G. Carmichael, J. Douros, J. Flemming, R. Forkel, S. Galmarini, M. Gauss, G. Grell, M. Hirtl, S. Joffre, O. Jorba, E. Kaas, M. Kaasik, G. Kallos, X. Kong, U. Korsholm, A. Kurganskiy, J. Kushta, U. Lohmann, A. Mahura, A. Manders-Groot, A. Maurizi, N. Moussiopoulos, S. T. Rao, N. Savage, C. Seigneur, R. S. Sokhi, E. Solazzo, S. Solomos, B. Sørensen, G. Tsegas, E. Vignati, B. Vogel, and Y. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 317–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-317-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-317-2014, 2014
M. Kunz, B. Mühr, T. Kunz-Plapp, J. E. Daniell, B. Khazai, F. Wenzel, M. Vannieuwenhuyse, T. Comes, F. Elmer, K. Schröter, J. Fohringer, T. Münzberg, C. Lucas, and J. Zschau
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2579–2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2579-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2579-2013, 2013
L. A. Lee, K. J. Pringle, C. L. Reddington, G. W. Mann, P. Stier, D. V. Spracklen, J. R. Pierce, and K. S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 8879–8914, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8879-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8879-2013, 2013
M. Bentsen, I. Bethke, J. B. Debernard, T. Iversen, A. Kirkevåg, Ø. Seland, H. Drange, C. Roelandt, I. A. Seierstad, C. Hoose, and J. E. Kristjánsson
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 687–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013, 2013
C. L. Reddington, G. McMeeking, G. W. Mann, H. Coe, M. G. Frontoso, D. Liu, M. Flynn, D. V. Spracklen, and K. S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4917–4939, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4917-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4917-2013, 2013
N. Bellouin, G. W. Mann, M. T. Woodhouse, C. Johnson, K. S. Carslaw, and M. Dalvi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3027–3044, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3027-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3027-2013, 2013
M. T. Woodhouse, G. W. Mann, K. S. Carslaw, and O. Boucher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2723–2733, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2723-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2723-2013, 2013
A. Kirkevåg, T. Iversen, Ø. Seland, C. Hoose, J. E. Kristjánsson, H. Struthers, A. M. L. Ekman, S. Ghan, J. Griesfeller, E. D. Nilsson, and M. Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 207–244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-207-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-207-2013, 2013
E. Athanasopoulou, H. Vogel, B. Vogel, A. P. Tsimpidi, S. N. Pandis, C. Knote, and C. Fountoukis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 625–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-625-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-625-2013, 2013
E. M. Dunne, L. A. Lee, C. L. Reddington, and K. S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 11573–11587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11573-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11573-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Subject: Clouds and Precipitation | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Counteracting influences of gravitational settling modulate aerosol impacts on cloud-base-lowering fog characteristics
The critical number and size of precipitation embryos to accelerate warm rain initiation
Impact on the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition of the interaction of cloud microphysics and macrophysics with large-scale circulation
Technical note: Phase space depiction of cloud condensation nuclei activation and cloud droplet diffusional growth
Impact of wildfire smoke on Arctic cirrus formation – Part 2: Simulation of MOSAiC 2019–2020 cases
Constraining aerosol–cloud adjustments by uniting surface observations with a perturbed parameter ensemble
Investigating ice formation pathways using a novel two-moment multi-class cloud microphysics scheme
Microphysics regimes due to haze–cloud interactions: cloud oscillation and cloud collapse
The influence of Amazonian anthropogenic emissions on new particle formation, aerosol, cloud and surface rain
Impact of secondary ice production on thunderstorm electrification under different aerosol conditions
Accelerated impact of airborne glaciogenic seeding of stratiform clouds by turbulence
Model analysis of biases in the satellite-diagnosed aerosol effect on the cloud liquid water path
Evaluation of biases in mid-to-high-latitude surface snowfall and cloud phase in ERA5 and CMIP6 using satellite observations
Failed cyclogenesis of a mesoscale convective system near Cape Verde: The role of the Saharan trade wind layer among other inhibiting factors observed during the CADDIWA field campaign
Dynamical imprints on precipitation cluster statistics across a hierarchy of high-resolution simulations
Ice formation processes key in determining WCB outflow cirrus properties
Role of a key microphysical factor in mixed-phase stratocumulus clouds and their interactions with aerosols
High-resolution modelling of early contrail evolution from hydrogen-powered aircraft
Investigating the impact of subgrid-scale aerosol-cloud interaction on mesoscale meteorology prediction
Correction of ERA5 temperature and relative humidity biases by bivariate quantile mapping for contrail formation analysis
Can pollen affect precipitation?
Potential impacts of marine fuel regulations on an Arctic stratocumulus case and its radiative response
The impact of the mesh size and microphysics scheme on the representation of mid-level clouds in the ICON model in hilly and complex terrain
The role of ascent timescales for warm conveyor belt (WCB) moisture transport into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS)
Magnitude and timescale of liquid water path adjustments to cloud droplet number concentration perturbations for nocturnal non-precipitating marine stratocumulus
On the Processes Determining the Slope of Cloud-Water Adjustments in Non-Precipitating Stratocumulus
Estimating the concentration of silver iodide needed to detect unambiguous signatures of glaciogenic cloud seeding
On the impact of thunder on cloud ice crystals and droplets
Ice-nucleating particle concentration impacts cloud properties over Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, in COSMO-CLM2
Numerical simulation of aerosol concentration effects on cloud droplet size spectrum evolutions of warm stratiform clouds in Jiangxi, China
The impact of aerosol on cloud water: a heuristic perspective
Cold pools mediate mesoscale adjustments of trade-cumulus fields to changes in cloud-droplet number concentration
The presence of clouds lowers climate sensitivity in the MPI-ESM1.2 climate model
Diurnal variation in an amplified canopy urban heat island during heat wave periods in the megacity of Beijing: roles of mountain–valley breeze and urban morphology
Diurnal evolution of non-precipitating marine stratocumuli in a large-eddy simulation ensemble
Ambient and Intrinsic Dependencies of Evolving Ice-Phase Particles within a Decaying Winter Storm During IMPACTS
Building a comprehensive library of observed Lagrangian trajectories for testing modeled cloud evolution, aerosol-cloud interactions, and marine cloud brightening
Numerical Case Study of the Aerosol-Cloud-Interactions in Warm Boundary Layer Clouds over the Eastern North Atlantic with an Interactive Chemistry Module
High ice water content in tropical mesoscale convective systems (a conceptual model)
Evolution of cloud droplet temperature and lifetime in spatiotemporally varying subsaturated environments with implications for ice nucleation at cloud edges
Effect of secondary ice production processes on the simulation of ice pellets using the Predicted Particle Properties microphysics scheme
Simulated particle evolution within a winter storm: contributions of riming to radar moments and precipitation fallout
Arctic Multilayer Clouds Require Accurate Thermodynamic Profiles and Efficient Primary and Secondary Ice Processes for a Realistic Structure and Composition
A thermal-driven graupel generation process to explain dry-season convective vigor over the Amazon
Modeling homogeneous ice nucleation from drop-freezing experiments: impact of droplet volume dispersion and cooling rates
Cloud water adjustments to aerosol perturbations are buffered by solar heating in non-precipitating marine stratocumuli
Glaciation of mixed-phase clouds: insights from bulk model and bin-microphysics large-eddy simulation informed by laboratory experiment
Influence of Temperature and Humidity on Contrail Formation Regions in EMAC: A Spring Case Study
Microphysical processes involving the vapour phase dominate in simulated low-level Arctic clouds
Understanding aerosol–cloud interactions using a single-column model for a cold-air outbreak case during the ACTIVATE campaign
Nathan H. Pope and Adele L. Igel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5433–5444, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5433-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5433-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used an atmospheric model that simulates a single column to study the sensitivity of marine fog formed through the lowering of the base of a stratus cloud to meteorology and aerosols. We found that higher aerosol concentration reduces the likelihood and duration of fog but leads to denser fog. This overall trend was caused by multiple physical mechanisms depending on conditions.
Jung-Sub Lim, Yign Noh, Hyunho Lee, and Fabian Hoffmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5313–5329, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5313-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5313-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Rain formation in warm clouds begins when small droplets collide, but this process can be slow without larger droplets. We used simulations to explore the role of bigger droplets, known as precipitation embryos, in triggering rain. We found that they speed up rain only when their size and number exceed a critical threshold. This threshold becomes larger when collisions are naturally efficient, such as in clouds with broad droplet size distributions or strong turbulence.
Je-Yun Chun, Robert Wood, Peter N. Blossey, and Sarah J. Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5251–5271, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5251-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5251-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how aerosols affect clouds transitioning from stratocumulus to cumulus along trade winds under varying atmospheric conditions. We found that aerosols typically reduce precipitation and raise cloud height, but their impact changes when subsidence changes by aerosol enhancement are considered. Our findings indicate that the cooling effect of aerosols might be overestimated if these atmospheric changes are not accounted for.
Wojciech W. Grabowski and Hanna Pawlowska
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5273–5285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5273-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5273-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A simple diagram to depict cloud droplets' formation via the activation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) as well as their subsequent growth and evaporation is presented.
Albert Ansmann, Cristofer Jimenez, Daniel A. Knopf, Johanna Roschke, Johannes Bühl, Kevin Ohneiser, and Ronny Engelmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4867–4884, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4867-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4867-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we focus on the potential impact of wildfire smoke on cirrus formation. Aerosol and cirrus observations with lidar and radar during the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition, presented in the companion paper (Ansmann et al., 2025), are closely linked to comprehensive modeling of ice nucleation in cirrus evolution processes, presented in this article. A clear impact of wildfire smoke on cirrus formation was found.
August Mikkelsen, Daniel T. McCoy, Trude Eidhammer, Andrew Gettelman, Ci Song, Hamish Gordon, and Isabel L. McCoy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4547–4570, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4547-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4547-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Whether increased aerosol increases or decreases liquid cloud mass has been a longstanding question. Observed correlations suggest that aerosols thin liquid cloud, but we are able to show that observations were consistent with an increase in liquid cloud in response to aerosols by leveraging a model where causality could be traced.
Tim Lüttmer, Peter Spichtinger, and Axel Seifert
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4505–4529, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4505-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate ice formation pathways in idealized convective clouds using a novel microphysics scheme that distinguishes between five ice classes each with their own unique formation mechanism. Ice crystals from rime splintering form the lowermost layer of ice crystals around the updraft core. The majority of ice crystals in the anvil of the convective cloud stems from frozen droplets. Ice stemming from homogeneous and deposition nucleation was only relevant in the overshoot.
Fan Yang, Hamed Fahandezh Sadi, Raymond A. Shaw, Fabian Hoffmann, Pei Hou, Aaron Wang, and Mikhail Ovchinnikov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3785–3806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3785-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Large-eddy simulations of a convection cloud chamber show two new microphysics regimes, cloud oscillation and cloud collapse, due to haze–cloud interactions. Our results suggest that haze particles and their interactions with cloud droplets should be considered especially in polluted conditions. To properly simulate haze–cloud interactions, we need to resolve droplet activation and deactivation processes, instead of using Twomey-type activation parameterization.
Xuemei Wang, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Daniel P. Grosvenor, and Hamish Gordon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-132, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic emissions can influence aerosol particle number concentrations via new particle formation. Our model simulations predict around 10 % increase of the particle and cloud droplet number concentrations when doubling the emissions in the Manaus region in the Amazonian wet season. However, the corresponding changes in cloud water and rain mass are around 4 %. Such weak response implied that this convective environment is not sensitive to the localised anthropogenic emission changes here.
Shiye Huang, Jing Yang, Jiaojiao Li, Qian Chen, Qilin Zhang, and Fengxia Guo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1831–1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1831-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1831-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol and secondary ice production are both vital to charge separation in thunderstorms, but the relative importance of different SIP processes to cloud electrification under different aerosol conditions is not well understood. In this study, we show in a clean environment, the shattering of freezing drops has the greatest effect on the charging rate, while in a polluted environment, both rime splintering and the shattering of freezing drops have a significant effect on cloud electrification.
Meilian Chen, Xiaoqin Jing, Jiaojiao Li, Jing Yang, Xiaobo Dong, Bart Geerts, Yan Yin, Baojun Chen, Lulin Xue, Mengyu Huang, Ping Tian, and Shaofeng Hua
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-47, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Several recent studies have reported complete cloud glaciation induced by airborne-based glaciogenic cloud seeding over plains. Since turbulence is an important factor to maintain clouds in mixed-phase, it is hypothesized that turbulence may have an impact on the seeding effect. This hypothesis is evident in the present study, which shows turbulence can accelerate the impact of airborne glaciogenic seeding of stratiform clouds.
Harri Kokkola, Juha Tonttila, Silvia M. Calderón, Sami Romakkaniemi, Antti Lipponen, Aapo Peräkorpi, Tero Mielonen, Edward Gryspeerdt, Timo Henrik Virtanen, Pekka Kolmonen, and Antti Arola
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1533–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1533-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1533-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how atmospheric aerosols affect clouds is a scientific challenge. One question is how aerosols affects the amount of cloud water. We used a cloud-scale model to study these effects on marine clouds. The study showed that variations in cloud properties and instrument noise can cause bias in satellite-derived cloud water content. However, our results suggest that for similar weather conditions with well-defined aerosol concentrations, satellite data can reliably track these effects.
Franziska Hellmuth, Tim Carlsen, Anne Sophie Daloz, Robert Oscar David, Haochi Che, and Trude Storelvmo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1353–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1353-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This article compares the occurrence of supercooled liquid-containing clouds (sLCCs) and their link to surface snowfall in CloudSat–CALIPSO, ERA5, and the CMIP6 models. Significant discrepancies were found, with ERA5 and CMIP6 consistently overestimating sLCC and snowfall frequency. This bias is likely due to cloud microphysics parameterization. This conclusion has implications for accurately representing cloud phase and snowfall in future climate projections.
Guillaume Feger, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Thibaut Dauhut, Julien Delanoë, and Pierre Coutris
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-105, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Saharan air at trade wind layer, cold pools, and upper tropospheric dry air are identified as the three main factors inhibiting the cyclogenesis of the Pierre Henri mesoscale convective system. The findings were obtained trough observations made during two flights of the CADDIWA campaign and a convection-permitting simulation run with the Meso-NH model. They provide new insights into the complex dynamics of cyclogenesis in the Cape Verde region and challenge the existing model of the SAL.
Claudia Christine Stephan and Bjorn Stevens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1209–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1209-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1209-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical precipitation cluster area and intensity distributions follow power laws, but the physical processes responsible for this behavior remain unknown. We analyze global simulations that realistically represent precipitation processes. We consider Earth-like planets as well as virtual planets to realize different types of large-scale dynamics. Our finding is that power laws in Earth’s precipitation cluster statistics stem from the robust power laws in Earth’s atmospheric wind field.
Tim Lüttmer, Annette Miltenberger, and Peter Spichtinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-185, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate ice formation pathways in a warm conveyor belt case study. We employ a multi-phase microphysics scheme that distinguishes between ice from different nucleation processes. Ice crystals in the cirrus outflow mostly stem from in-situ formation. Hence they were formed directly from the vapor phase. Sedimentational redistribution modulates cirrus properties and leads to a disagreement between cirrus origin classifications based on thermodynamic history and nucleation processes.
Seoung Soo Lee, Chang Hoon Jung, Jinho Choi, Young Jun Yoon, Junshik Um, Youtong Zheng, Jianping Guo, Manguttathil G. Manoj, Sang-Keun Song, and Kyung-Ja Ha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 705–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-705-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-705-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study attempts to test a general factor that explains differences in the properties of different mixed-phase clouds using a modeling tool. Although this attempt is not to identify a factor that can perfectly explain and represent the properties of different mixed-phase clouds, we believe that this attempt acts as a valuable stepping stone towards a more complete, general way of using climate models to better predict climate change.
Annemarie Lottermoser and Simon Unterstraßer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3859, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3859, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Contrail-cirrus significantly contributes to aviation's overall climate impact. As hydrogen combustion and fuel cell use are emerging technologies for aircraft propulsion, we simulated individual contrails from hydrogen propulsion during the first six minutes after exhaust emission, termed the vortex phase. The ice crystal loss during that stage is crucial as the number of ice crystals has a large impact on the further evolution of contrails into contrail-cirrus and their radiative forcing.
Wenjie Zhang, Hong Wang, Xiaoye Zhang, Yue Peng, Zhaodong Liu, Deying Wang, Da Zhang, Chen Han, Yang Zhao, Junting Zhong, Wenxing Jia, Huiqiong Ning, and Huizheng Che
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3677, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We implement a real-time subgrid-scale aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI) mechanism in a mesoscale atmospheric chemistry system and find that subgrid-scale ACI can improve meteorological factors predictions. This study demonstrates the importance of real-time subgrid-scale ACI to weather forecast and the necessity of multiscale ACI studies.
Kevin Wolf, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Susanne Rohs, and Yun Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 157–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-157-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-157-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis and airborne in situ observations from IAGOS are compared in terms of the representation of the contrail formation potential and the presence of supersaturation. Differences are traced back to biases in ERA5 relative humidity fields. Those biases are addressed by applying a quantile mapping technique that significantly improved contrail estimation based on post-processed ERA5 data.
Marje Prank, Juha Tonttila, Xiaoxia Shang, Sami Romakkaniemi, and Tomi Raatikainen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 183–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-183-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-183-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Large primary bioparticles such as pollen can be abundant in the atmosphere. In humid conditions pollen can rupture and release a large number of fine sub-pollen particles (SPPs). The paper investigates what kind of birch pollen concentrations are needed for the pollen and SPPs to start playing a noticeable role in cloud processes and alter precipitation formation. In the studied cases only the largest observed pollen concentrations were able to noticeably alter the precipitation formation.
Luís Filipe Escusa dos Santos, Hannah C. Frostenberg, Alejandro Baró Pérez, Annica M. L. Ekman, Luisa Ickes, and Erik S. Thomson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 119–142, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-119-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic is experiencing enhanced surface warming. The observed decline in Arctic sea-ice extent is projected to lead to an increase in Arctic shipping activity, which may lead to further climatic feedbacks. Using an atmospheric model and results from marine engine experiments that focused on fuel sulfur content reduction and exhaust wet scrubbing, we investigate how ship exhaust particles influence the properties of Arctic clouds. Implications for radiative surface processes are discussed.
Nadja Omanovic, Brigitta Goger, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 14145–14175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the numerical weather model ICON in two horizontal resolutions with two bulk microphysics schemes over hilly and complex terrain in Switzerland and Austria, respectively. We focused on the model's ability to simulate mid-level clouds in summer and winter. By combining observational data from two different field campaigns, we show that an increase in the horizontal resolution and a more advanced cloud microphysics scheme is strongly beneficial for cloud representation.
Cornelis Schwenk and Annette Miltenberger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 14073–14099, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14073-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14073-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) transport moisture into the upper atmosphere, where it acts as a greenhouse gas. This transport is not well understood, and the role of rapidly rising air is unclear. We simulate a WCB and look at fast- and slow-rising air to see how moisture is (differently) transported. We find that for fast-ascending air more ice particles reach higher into the atmosphere and that frozen cloud particles are removed differently than during slow ascent, which has more water vapour.
Yao-Sheng Chen, Prasanth Prabhakaran, Fabian Hoffmann, Jan Kazil, Takanobu Yamaguchi, and Graham Feingold
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3891, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Injecting sea salt aerosols into marine stratiform clouds can distribute the cloud water over more droplets in smaller sizes. This process is expected to make the clouds brighter, allowing them to reflect more sunlight back to space. However, it may also cause the clouds to lose water over time, reducing their ability to reflect sunlight. We use a computer model to show that the loss of cloud water occurs relatively quickly and does not completely offset the initial brightening.
Fabian Hoffmann, Yao-Sheng Chen, and Graham Feingold
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3893, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds reflect a substantial portion of the incoming solar radiation back into space. This capacity is determined by the number of cloud droplets, which in turn is influenced by the number of aerosol particles, forming the basis for aerosol-cloud-climate interactions. In this study, we use a simple mixed-layer approach to understand the effect of aerosol on cloud water in non-precipitating stratocumulus.
Jing Yang, Jiaojiao Li, Meilian Chen, Xiaoqin Jing, Yan Yin, Bart Geerts, Zhien Wang, Yubao Liu, Baojun Chen, Shaofeng Hua, Hao Hu, Xiaobo Dong, Ping Tian, Qian Chen, and Yang Gao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13833–13848, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13833-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13833-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Detecting unambiguous signatures is vital for examining cloud-seeding impacts, but often, seeding signatures are immersed in natural variability. In this study, reflectivity changes induced by glaciogenic seeding using different AgI concentrations are investigated under various conditions, and a method is developed to estimate the AgI concentration needed to detect unambiguous seeding signatures. The results aid in operational seeding-based decision-making regarding the amount of AgI dispersed.
Konstantinos Kourtidis, Stavros Stathopoulos, and Vassilis Amiridis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3314, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The loud sound of thunder will induce mechanical effects on cloud droplets and ice particles, causing changes in their size distribution.
Florian Sauerland, Niels Souverijns, Anna Possner, Heike Wex, Preben Van Overmeiren, Alexander Mangold, Kwinten Van Weverberg, and Nicole van Lipzig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13751–13768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13751-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use a regional climate model, COSMO-CLM², enhanced with a module resolving aerosol processes, to study Antarctic clouds. We prescribe different concentrations of ice-nucleating particles to our model to assess how these clouds respond to concentration changes, validating results with cloud and aerosol observations from the Princess Elisabeth Antarctica station. Our results show that aerosol–cloud interactions vary with temperature, providing valuable insights into Antarctic cloud dynamics.
Yi Li, Xiaoli Liu, and Hengjia Cai
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13525–13540, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13525-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of different aerosol modes on cloud processes remains controversial. We modified the aerosol spectra and concentrations to simulate a warm stratiform cloud process in Jiangxi, China, using the WRF-SBM scheme. Research shows that different aerosol spectra have diverse effects on cloud droplet spectra, cloud development, and the correlation between dispersion (ε) and cloud physics quantities. Compared to cloud droplet concentration, ε is more sensitive to the volume radius.
Fabian Hoffmann, Franziska Glassmeier, and Graham Feingold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13403–13412, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds constitute a major cooling influence on Earth's climate system by reflecting a large fraction of the incident solar radiation back to space. This ability is controlled by the number of cloud droplets, which is governed by the number of aerosol particles in the atmosphere, laying the foundation for so-called aerosol–cloud–climate interactions. In this study, a simple model to understand the effect of aerosol on cloud water is developed and applied.
Pouriya Alinaghi, Fredrik Jansson, Daniel A. Blázquez, and Franziska Glassmeier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3501, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3501, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Shallow clouds in the trades are a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. These clouds organize into striking mesoscale patterns that are exactly what climate models lack. This study explores the origin of such patterns and investigates how variations in microscale properties control them. The importance of microscale effects is compared to that of large-scale forcing on the mesoscale organization of trade-cumulus fields.
Andrea Mosso, Thomas Hocking, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12793–12806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds play a crucial role in the Earth's energy balance, as they can either warm up or cool down the area they cover depending on their height and depth. They are expected to alter their behaviour under climate change, affecting the warming generated by greenhouse gases. This paper proposes a new method to estimate their overall effect on this warming by simulating a climate where clouds are transparent. Results show that with the model used, clouds have a stabilising effect on climate.
Tao Shi, Yuanjian Yang, Ping Qi, and Simone Lolli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12807–12822, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12807-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12807-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explored the formation mechanisms of the amplified canopy urban heat island intensity (ΔCUHII) during heat wave (HW) periods in the megacity of Beijing from the perspectives of mountain–valley breeze and urban morphology. During the mountain breeze phase, high-rise buildings with lower sky view factors (SVFs) had a pronounced effect on the ΔCUHII. During the valley breeze phase, high-rise buildings exerted a dual influence on the ΔCUHII.
Yao-Sheng Chen, Jianhao Zhang, Fabian Hoffmann, Takanobu Yamaguchi, Franziska Glassmeier, Xiaoli Zhou, and Graham Feingold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12661–12685, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12661-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Marine stratocumulus cloud is a type of shallow cloud that covers the vast areas of Earth's surface. It plays an important role in Earth's energy balance by reflecting solar radiation back to space. We used numerical models to simulate a large number of marine stratocumuli with different characteristics. We found that how the clouds develop throughout the day is affected by the level of humidity in the air above the clouds and how closely the clouds connect to the ocean surface.
Andrew DeLaFrance, Lynn McMurdie, Angela Rowe, and Andrew Heymsfield
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3423, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical modeling simulations are used to investigate ice crystal growth and decay processes within a banded region of enhanced precipitation rates during a prominent winter storm. We identify robust primary ice growth in the upper portion of the cloud but decay exceeding 70 % during fallout through a subsaturated layer. The ice fall characteristics and decay rate are sensitive to the ambient cloud properties which has implications for radar-based measurements and precipitation accumulations.
Ehsan Erfani, Robert Wood, Peter Blossey, Sarah J. Doherty, and Ryan Eastman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3232, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3232, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we explore how marine clouds interact with aerosols. We introduce a novel approach to identify a reduced number of representative cases from a wide array of observed environmental conditions prevalent in the Northeast Pacific. We created over 2200 trajectories from observations and used cloud-resolving simulations to investigate how marine low clouds evolve in two different cases. It is shown that aerosols can delay cloud breakup, but their impact depends on precipitation.
Hsiang-He Lee, Xue Zheng, Shaoyue Qiu, and Yuan Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3199, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3199, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how aerosol-cloud interactions affect warm boundary layer stratiform clouds over the Eastern North Atlantic. High-resolution WRF-Chem simulations reveal that non-rain clouds at the edges of cloud systems are prone to evaporation, leading to an aerosol drying effect and a transition of aerosols back to accumulation mode for future activation. The study emphasizes that this dynamic behavior is often not adequately represented in most previous prescribed-aerosol simulations.
Alexei Korolev, Zhipeng Qu, Jason Milbrandt, Ivan Heckman, Mélissa Cholette, Mengistu Wolde, Cuong Nguyen, Greg M. McFarquhar, Paul Lawson, and Ann M. Fridlind
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11849–11881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11849-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11849-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The phenomenon of high ice water content (HIWC) occurs in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) when a large number of small ice particles with typical sizes of a few hundred micrometers is found at high altitudes. It was found that secondary ice production in the vicinity of the melting layer plays a key role in the formation and maintenance of HIWC. This study presents a conceptual model of the formation of HIWC in tropical MCSs based on in situ observations and numerical simulation.
Puja Roy, Robert M. Rauber, and Larry Di Girolamo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11653–11678, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cloud droplet temperature and lifetime impact cloud microphysical processes such as the activation of ice-nucleating particles. We investigate the thermal and radial evolution of supercooled cloud droplets and their surrounding environments with an aim to better understand observed enhanced ice formation at supercooled cloud edges. This analysis shows that the magnitude of droplet cooling during evaporation is greater than estimated from past studies, especially for drier environments.
Mathieu Lachapelle, Mélissa Cholette, and Julie M. Thériault
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11285–11304, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11285-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hazardous precipitation types such as ice pellets and freezing rain are difficult to predict because they are associated with complex microphysical processes. Using Predicted Particle Properties (P3), this work shows that secondary ice production processes increase the amount of ice pellets simulated while decreasing the amount of freezing rain. Moreover, the properties of the simulated precipitation compare well with those that were measured.
Andrew DeLaFrance, Lynn A. McMurdie, Angela K. Rowe, and Andrew J. Heymsfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11191–11206, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a numerical model, the process whereby falling ice crystals accumulate supercooled liquid water droplets is investigated to elucidate its effects on radar-based measurements and surface precipitation. We demonstrate that this process accounted for 55% of the precipitation during a wintertime storm and is uniquely discernable from other ice crystal growth processes in Doppler velocity measurements. These results have implications for measurements from airborne and spaceborne platforms.
Gabriella Wallentin, Annika Oertel, Luisa Ickes, Peggy Achtert, Matthias Tesche, and Corinna Hoose
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2988, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2988, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multilayer clouds are common in the Arctic but remain understudied. We use an atmospheric model to simulate multilayer cloud cases from the Arctic expedition MOSAiC 2019/2020. We find that it is complex to accurately model these cloud layers due to the lack of correct temperature and humidity profiles. The model also struggles to capture the observed cloud phase, the relative concentration of cloud droplets and cloud ice. We constrain our model to measured aerosols to mitigate this issue.
Toshi Matsui, Daniel Hernandez-Deckers, Scott E. Giangrande, Thiago S. Biscaro, Ann Fridlind, and Scott Braun
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10793–10814, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using computer simulations and real measurements, we discovered that storms over the Amazon were narrower but more intense during the dry periods, producing heavier rain and more ice particles in the clouds. Our research showed that cumulus bubbles played a key role in creating these intense storms. This study can improve the representation of the effect of continental and ocean environments on tropical regions' rainfall patterns in simulations.
Ravi Kumar Reddy Addula, Ingrid de Almeida Ribeiro, Valeria Molinero, and Baron Peters
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10833–10848, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10833-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10833-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice nucleation from supercooled droplets is important in many weather and climate modeling efforts. For experiments where droplets are steadily supercooled from the freezing point, our work combines nucleation theory and survival probability analysis to predict the nucleation spectrum, i.e., droplet freezing probabilities vs. temperature. We use the new framework to extract approximately consistent rate parameters from experiments with different cooling rates and droplet sizes.
Jianhao Zhang, Yao-Sheng Chen, Takanobu Yamaguchi, and Graham Feingold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10425–10440, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Quantifying cloud response to aerosol perturbations presents a major challenge in understanding the human impact on climate. Using a large number of process-resolving simulations of marine stratocumulus, we show that solar heating drives a negative feedback mechanism that buffers the persistent negative trend in cloud water adjustment after sunrise. This finding has implications for the dependence of the cloud cooling effect on the timing of deliberate aerosol perturbations.
Aaron Wang, Steve Krueger, Sisi Chen, Mikhail Ovchinnikov, Will Cantrell, and Raymond A. Shaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10245–10260, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We employ two methods to examine a laboratory experiment on clouds with both ice and liquid phases. The first assumes well-mixed properties; the second resolves the spatial distribution of turbulence and cloud particles. Results show that while the trends in mean properties generally align, when turbulence is resolved, liquid droplets are not fully depleted by ice due to incomplete mixing. This underscores the threshold of ice mass fraction in distinguishing mixed-phase clouds from ice clouds.
Patrick Peter, Sigrun Matthes, Christine Frömming, Patrick Jöckel, Luca Bugliaro, Andreas Giez, Martina Krämer, and Volker Grewe
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2142, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study examines how temperature and humidity representations influence contrail (-cirrus) formation criteria. Using various model setups, we identified biases that lead to overestimation of contrail formation areas. By comparing simulations with in-flight and satellite observations, we confirmed that humidity threshold choices greatly affect contrail predictions. These findings can help develop strategies for climate-optimized flight routes, potentially reducing aviation's climate effect.
Theresa Kiszler, Davide Ori, and Vera Schemann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10039–10053, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10039-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10039-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Microphysical processes impact the phase-partitioning of clouds. In this study we evaluate these processes while focusing on low-level Arctic clouds. To achieve this we used an extensive simulation set in combination with a new diagnostic tool. This study presents our findings on the relevance of these processes and their behaviour under different thermodynamic regimes.
Shuaiqi Tang, Hailong Wang, Xiang-Yu Li, Jingyi Chen, Armin Sorooshian, Xubin Zeng, Ewan Crosbie, Kenneth L. Thornhill, Luke D. Ziemba, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10073–10092, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10073-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10073-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We examined marine boundary layer clouds and their interactions with aerosols in the E3SM single-column model (SCM) for a case study. The SCM shows good agreement when simulating the clouds with high-resolution models. It reproduces the relationship between cloud droplet and aerosol particle number concentrations as produced in global models. However, the relationship between cloud liquid water and droplet number concentration is different, warranting further investigation.
Cited articles
Adams-Selin, R. D., van den Heever, S. C., and Johnson, R. H.: Impact of Graupel Parameterization Schemes on Idealized Bow Echo Simulations, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 1241–1262, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00064.1, 2013. a
Baldauf, M., Seifert, A., Förstner, J., Majewski, D., Raschendorfer, M., and Reinhardt, T.: Operational Convective-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction with the COSMO Model: Description and Sensitivities, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 3887–3905, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05013.1, 2011. a
Barrett, A. I., Wellmann, C., Seifert, A., Hoose, C., Vogel, B., and Kunz, M.: One Step at a Time: How Model Time Step Significantly Affects Convection-Permitting Simulations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 641–658, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001418, 2019. a, b
Bastos, L. S. and O'Hagan, A.: Diagnostics for Gaussian Process Emulators, Technometrics, 51, 425–438, https://doi.org/10.1198/TECH.2009.08019, 2009. a
Bigg, E. K.: The formation of atmospheric ice crystals by the freezing of droplets, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 79, 510–519, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49707934207, 1953. a
Brooks, H.: Operational implications of the sensitivity of modeled
thunderstorms to thermal perturbations, Fourth AES/CMOS Workshop on
Operational Meteorology, Whistler, B.C., Canada, 15–18 September 1992, 110, 398–407, 1992. a
Chen, Q., Fan, J., Hagos, S., Gustafson Jr., W. I., and Berg, L. K.: Roles of wind shear at different vertical levels: Cloud system organization and properties, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 6551–6574, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023253, 2015. a
Connolly, P. J., Choularton, T. W., Gallagher, M. W., Bower, K. N., Flynn, M. J., and Whiteway, J. A.: Cloud-resolving simulations of intense tropical Hector thunderstorms: Implications for aerosol–cloud interactions, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 3079–3106, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.86, 2006. a
Davies-Jones, R.: A review of supercell and tornado dynamics, Atmos. Res., 158–159, 274–291, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.04.007, 2015. a
DeMott, P. J., Prenni, A. J., Liu, X., Kreidenweis, S. M., Petters, M. D., Twohy, C. H., Richardson, M. S., Eidhammer, T., and Rogers, D. C.: Predicting global atmospheric ice nuclei distributions and their impacts on climate, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 11217–11222, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0910818107, 2010. a
Fan, J., Tianle, Y., M., C. J., Steven, G., Alexander, K., Ruby, L. L., Zhanqing, L., J., M. V., and Mikhail, O.: Dominant role by vertical wind shear in regulating aerosol effects on deep convective clouds, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D22206, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012352, 2009. a
Fan, J., Leung, L. R., Rosenfeld, D., Chen, Q., Li, Z., Zhang, J., and Yan, H.: Microphysical effects determine macrophysical response for aerosol impacts on deep convective clouds, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, E4581–E4590, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1316830110, 2013. a, b, c, d
Gal-Chen, T. and Somerville, R. C.: On the use of a coordinate transformation for the solution of the Navier-Stokes equations, J. Comput. Phys., 17, 209–228, https://doi.org/10.1016/0021-9991(75)90037-6, 1975. a
Gilmore, M. S., Straka, J. M., and Rasmussen, E. N.: Precipitation Uncertainty Due to Variations in Precipitation Particle Parameters within a Simple Microphysics Scheme, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 2610–2627, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR2810.1, 2004. a
Glassmeier, F., Hoffmann, F., Johnson, J. S., Yamaguchi, T., Carslaw, K. S., and Feingold, G.: An emulator approach to stratocumulus susceptibility, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10191–10203, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10191-2019, 2019. a
Hallett, J. and Mossop, S. C.: Production of secondary ice particles during the riming process, Nature, 249, 26–28, https://doi.org/10.1038/249026a0, 1974. a, b, c
Heymsfield, A., Szakáll, M., Jost, A., Giammanco, I., and Wright, R.: A Comprehensive Observational Study of Graupel and Hail Terminal Velocity, Mass Flux, and Kinetic Energy, J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 3861–3885, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0035.1, 2018. a
Huang, W., Bao, J.-W., Zhang, X., and Chen, B.: Comparison of the Vertical Distributions of Cloud Properties from Idealized Extratropical Deep Convection Simulations Using Various Horizontal Resolutions, Mon. Weather Rev., 146, 833–851, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0162.1, 2018. a
Huffman, P. J. and Vali, G.: The Effect of Vapor Depletion on Ice Nucleus Measurements with Membrane Filters, J. Appl. Meteorol., 12, 1018–1024, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1973)012<1018:TEOVDO>2.0.CO;2, 1973. a
Igel, A. L. and van den Heever, S. C.: The Importance of the Shape of Cloud Droplet Size Distributions in Shallow Cumulus Clouds. Part I: Bin Microphysics Simulations, J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 249–258, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0382.1, 2017a. a
Igel, A. L. and van den Heever, S. C.: The Importance of the Shape of Cloud Droplet Size Distributions in Shallow Cumulus Clouds. Part II: Bulk Microphysics Simulations, J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 259–273, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0383.1, 2017b. a, b, c
Igel, A. L., van den Heever, S. C., and Johnson, J. S.: Meteorological and Land Surface Properties Impacting Sea Breeze Extent and Aerosol Distribution in a Dry Environment, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 22–37, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027339, 2018. a
Joos, H. and Wernli, H.: Influence of microphysical processes on the potential vorticity development in a warm conveyor belt: a case-study with the limited-area model COSMO, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 407–418, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.934, 2011. a, b
Khain, A., Rosenfeld, D., Pokrovsky, A., Blahak, U., and Ryzhkov, A.: The role of CCN in precipitation and hail in a mid-latitude storm as seen in simulations using a spectral (bin) microphysics model in a 2D dynamic frame, Atmos. Res., 99, 129–146, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.09.015, 2011. a
Knight, N. C. and Heymsfield, A. J.: Measurement and Interpretation of Hailstone Density and Terminal Velocity, J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 1510–1516, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1983)040<1510:MAIOHD>2.0.CO;2, 1983. a, b, c
Lebo, Z. J., Morrison, H., and Seinfeld, J. H.: Are simulated aerosol-induced effects on deep convective clouds strongly dependent on saturation adjustment?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 9941–9964, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-9941-2012, 2012. a
Lee, L. A., Carslaw, K. S., Pringle, K. J., Mann, G. W., and Spracklen, D. V.: Emulation of a complex global aerosol model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 12253–12273, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-12253-2011, 2011. a
Lee, L. A., Pringle, K. J., Reddington, C. L., Mann, G. W., Stier, P., Spracklen, D. V., Pierce, J. R., and Carslaw, K. S.: The magnitude and causes of uncertainty in global model simulations of cloud condensation nuclei, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 8879–8914, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8879-2013, 2013. a
Lee, S. S., Donner, L. J., Phillips, V. T. J., and Ming, Y.: The dependence of aerosol effects on clouds and precipitation on cloud-system organization, shear and stability, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D16202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009224, 2008. a, b, c, d
Locatelli, J. D. and Hobbs, P. V.: Fall speeds and masses of solid precipitation particles, J. Geophys. Res., 79, 2185–2197, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC079i015p02185, 1974. a
Loftus, A. and Cotton, W.: Examination of CCN impacts on hail in a simulated supercell storm with triple-moment hail bulk microphysics, Atmos. Res., 147–148, 183–204, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.04.017, 2014. a, b, c, d
Morris, M. D. and Mitchell, T. J.: Exploratory designs for computational experiments, J. Stat. Plan. Infer., 43, 381–402, https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-3758(94)00035-T, 1995. a
Morrison, H. and Milbrandt, J.: Comparison of Two-Moment Bulk Microphysics Schemes in Idealized Supercell Thunderstorm Simulations, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 1103–1130, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3433.1, 2011. a
Morrison, H., Curry, J. A., Shupe, M. D., and Zuidema, P.: A New Double-Moment Microphysics Parameterization for Application in Cloud and Climate Models. Part II: Single-Column Modeling of Arctic Clouds, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1678–1693, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3447.1, 2005. a
Morrison, H., Thompson, G., and Tatarskii, V.: Impact of Cloud Microphysics on the Development of Trailing Stratiform Precipitation in a Simulated Squall Line: Comparison of One- and Two-Moment Schemes, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 991–1007, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2556.1, 2009. a
Oakley, J. E. and O'Hagan, A.: Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of complex models: a Bayesian approach, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B, 66, 751–769, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2004.05304.x, 2004. a, b
O'Hagan, A.: Bayesian analysis of computer code outputs: A tutorial, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 91, 1290–1300, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2005.11.025, 2006. a, b, c
Posselt, D. J. and Vukicevic, T.: Robust Characterization of Model Physics Uncertainty for Simulations of Deep Moist Convection, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 1513–1535, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR3094.1, 2010. a
Potvin, C. K. and Flora, M. L.: Sensitivity of Idealized Supercell Simulations to Horizontal Grid Spacing: Implications for Warn-on-Forecast, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 2998–3024, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00416.1, 2015. a
Rasmussen, C. E.: Gaussian Processes in Machine Learning, in: Advanced Lectures on Machine Learning: ML Summer Schools 2003, Canberra, Australia, 2–14 February 2003, Tübingen, Germany, 4–16 August 2003, Revised Lectures, edited by: Bousquet, O., von Luxburg, U., and Rätsch, G., Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 63–71, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-28650-9_4, 2004. a
Rasmussen, C. E. and Williams, C. K. I.: Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning, MIT Press, London, 2006. a
Rosenfeld, D., Lohmann, U., Raga, G. B., O'Dowd, C. D., Kulmala, M., Fuzzi, S., Reissell, A., and Andreae, M. O.: Flood or Drought: How Do Aerosols Affect Precipitation?, Science, 321, 1309–1313, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1160606, 2008. a, b
Saltelli, A., Tarantola, S., and Chan, K. P.-S.: A Quantitative Model-Independent Method for Global Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output, Technometrics, 41, 39–56, https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1999.10485594, 1999. a, b
Schättler, U., Doms, G., and Schraff, C.: A description of the nonhydrostatic regional COSMO-model, Part VII: User's Guide, available at: http://www.cosmo-model.org/content/model/documentation/core/default.htm (last access: 9 February 2020), 2016. a
Schneider, L., Barthlott, C., Hoose, C., and Barrett, A. I.: Relative impact of aerosol, soil moisture, and orography perturbations on deep convection, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12343–12359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12343-2019, 2019. a
Segal, Y. and Khain, A.: Dependence of droplet concentration on aerosol conditions in different cloud types: Application to droplet concentration parameterization of aerosol conditions, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D15204, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006561, 2006. a
Seifert, A. and Beheng, K. D.: A two-moment cloud microphysics parameterization for mixed-phase clouds. Part 1: Model description, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 92, 45–66, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0112-4, 2006. a, b, c, d
Storer, R. L., van den Heever, S. C., and Stephens, G. L.: Modeling Aerosol Impacts on Convective Storms in Different Environments, J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 3904–3915, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3363.1, 2010. a, b, c
Tao, W., Chen, J., Li, Z., Wang, C., and Zhang, C.: Impact of aerosols on convective clouds and precipitation, Rev. Geophys., 50, RG2001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011RG000369, 2012. a
Thompson, G., Rasmussen, R. M., and Manning, K.: Explicit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk Microphysics Scheme. Part I: Description and Sensitivity Analysis, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 519–542, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<0519:EFOWPU>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Thompson, G., Field, P. R., Rasmussen, R. M., and Hall, W. D.: Explicit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk Microphysics Scheme. Part II: Implementation of a New Snow Parameterization, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 5095–5115, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2387.1, 2008. a
Wang, Y., Fan, J., Zhang, R., Leung, L. R., and Franklin, C.: Improving bulk microphysics parameterizations in simulations of aerosol effects, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 5361–5379, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50432, 2013.
a
Weisman, M. L. and Klemp, J. B.: The Structure and Classification of Numerically Simulated Convective Storms in Directionally Varying Wind Shears, Mon. Weather Rev., 112, 2479–2498, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<2479:TSACON>2.0.CO;2, 1984. a
Weisman, M. L. and Rotunno, R.: The Use of Vertical Wind Shear versus Helicity in Interpreting Supercell Dynamics, J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 1452–1472, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2000)057<1452:TUOVWS>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a, b
Wellmann, C., Barrett, A. I., Johnson, J. S., Kunz, M., Vogel, B., Carslaw, K. S., and Hoose, C.: Using Emulators to Understand the Sensitivity of Deep Convective Clouds and Hail to Environmental Conditions, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10, 3103–3122, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001465, 2018. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l
Wellmann, M.-C. M.: Using statistical emulation for sensitivity studies of deep convective clouds, PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, https://doi.org/10.5445/IR/1000091102, 2019a. a
Wellmann, M.-C.: Training data and emulators for the analysis of sensitivity of deep convective clouds and hail to environmental conditions and microphysics, KITopen, https://doi.org/10.5445/IR/1000099232, 2019b. a
White, B., Gryspeerdt, E., Stier, P., Morrison, H., Thompson, G., and Kipling, Z.: Uncertainty from the choice of microphysics scheme in convection-permitting models significantly exceeds aerosol effects, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12145–12175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12145-2017, 2017. a
Yang, H., Xiao, H., Guo, C., Wen, G., Tang, Q., and Sun, Y.: Comparison of aerosol effects on simulated spring and summer hailstorm clouds, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 34, 877–893, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-6138-y, 2017. a, b
Yuter, S. E., Kingsmill, D. E., Nance, L. B., and Löffler-Mang, M.: Observations of Precipitation Size and Fall Speed Characteristics within Coexisting Rain and Wet Snow, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climat., 45, 1450–1464, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2406.1, 2006. a, b
Short summary
Severe hailstorms may cause damage to buildings and crops. Thus, the forecast of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models should be as reliable as possible.
Using statistical emulation, we identify those model input parameters describing environmental conditions and cloud microphysics which lead to large uncertainties in the prediction of deep convection. We find that the impact of the input parameters on the uncertainty depends on the considered output variable.
Severe hailstorms may cause damage to buildings and crops. Thus, the forecast of numerical...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint