Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2201-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2201-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Feb 2020
Research article |
| 26 Feb 2020
| 26 Feb 2020
Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail
Constanze Wellmann
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Andrew I. Barrett
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Jill S. Johnson
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Michael Kunz
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Bernhard Vogel
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Ken S. Carslaw
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
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Cited
28 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Spatio-temporal consistency of cloud-microphysical parameter sensitivity in a warm-conveyor belt M. Hieronymus et al.
- Impacts of combined microphysical and land-surface uncertainties on convective clouds and precipitation in different weather regimes C. Barthlott et al.
- Effect of cloud microphysical processes on surface wind of a squall line in South China Z. Chen et al.
- Notable Contributions of Aerosols to the Predictability of Hail Precipitation X. Li et al.
- Quantifying uncertainty in simulations of the West African monsoon with the use of surrogate models M. Fischer et al.
- Strong control of the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition time by aerosol: analysis of the joint roles of several cloud-controlling factors using Gaussian process emulation R. Sansom et al.
- Wind-driven hail threats to heliostats: Dynamic modeling and stow strategy optimization for CSP plants B. Ji et al.
- Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe A. Giordani et al.
- Mitigating hail overforecasting in the two-moment Milbrandt–Yau microphysics scheme (v2.25.2_beta_04) in WRF (v4.5.1) by incorporating the graupel spongy wet growth process (MY2_GSWG v1.0) S. Hua et al.
- The impact of microphysical uncertainty conditional on initial and boundary condition uncertainty under varying synoptic control T. Matsunobu et al.
- A ten-year statistical radar analysis of an operational hail suppression program in Alberta F. Pirani et al.
- A machine learning model for the prediction of hail-affected area in Germany S. Li et al.
- The effects of climate change on hailstorms T. Raupach et al.
- Importance of aerosols and shape of the cloud droplet size distribution for convective clouds and precipitation C. Barthlott et al.
- Influence of the terminal velocity of graupel on the simulation of a convective system over Beijing Y. Li et al.
- Model emulation to understand the joint effects of ice-nucleating particles and secondary ice production on deep convective anvil cirrus R. Hawker et al.
- Sensitivities of warm conveyor belt ascent, associated precipitation characteristics and large‐scale flow pattern: Insights from a perturbed parameter ensemble A. Oertel et al.
- A Comparison of the Practical Predictability of Hail with Initial Perturbations of Climatological and Flow-Dependent Uncertainty in Ensembles X. Li
- Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms H. Punge et al.
- Assessing the performance of WRF model in simulating severe hailstorm events over Assam and Bihar, India . Bhavyasree et al.
- Swabian MOSES 2021: An interdisciplinary field campaign for investigating convective storms and their event chains M. Kunz et al.
- Spatiotemporal variability and trends of hailstorms over India A. Subba Rao et al.
- Representation of the autoconversion from cloud to rain using a weighted ensemble approach: a case study using WRF v4.1.3 J. Yin et al.
- Assessing the potential for simplification in global climate model cloud microphysics U. Proske et al.
- Sensitivity of mixed-phase moderately deep convective clouds to parameterizations of ice formation – an ensemble perspective A. Miltenberger & P. Field
- Weakening of tropical sea breeze convective systems through interactions of aerosol, radiation, and soil moisture J. Park & S. van den Heever
- Opinion: The importance and future development of perturbed parameter ensembles in climate and atmospheric science K. Carslaw et al.
- Influence of the Terminal Velocity of Graupel on the Simulation of a Convective System Over Beijing Y. Li et al.
28 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Spatio-temporal consistency of cloud-microphysical parameter sensitivity in a warm-conveyor belt M. Hieronymus et al.
- Impacts of combined microphysical and land-surface uncertainties on convective clouds and precipitation in different weather regimes C. Barthlott et al.
- Effect of cloud microphysical processes on surface wind of a squall line in South China Z. Chen et al.
- Notable Contributions of Aerosols to the Predictability of Hail Precipitation X. Li et al.
- Quantifying uncertainty in simulations of the West African monsoon with the use of surrogate models M. Fischer et al.
- Strong control of the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition time by aerosol: analysis of the joint roles of several cloud-controlling factors using Gaussian process emulation R. Sansom et al.
- Wind-driven hail threats to heliostats: Dynamic modeling and stow strategy optimization for CSP plants B. Ji et al.
- Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe A. Giordani et al.
- Mitigating hail overforecasting in the two-moment Milbrandt–Yau microphysics scheme (v2.25.2_beta_04) in WRF (v4.5.1) by incorporating the graupel spongy wet growth process (MY2_GSWG v1.0) S. Hua et al.
- The impact of microphysical uncertainty conditional on initial and boundary condition uncertainty under varying synoptic control T. Matsunobu et al.
- A ten-year statistical radar analysis of an operational hail suppression program in Alberta F. Pirani et al.
- A machine learning model for the prediction of hail-affected area in Germany S. Li et al.
- The effects of climate change on hailstorms T. Raupach et al.
- Importance of aerosols and shape of the cloud droplet size distribution for convective clouds and precipitation C. Barthlott et al.
- Influence of the terminal velocity of graupel on the simulation of a convective system over Beijing Y. Li et al.
- Model emulation to understand the joint effects of ice-nucleating particles and secondary ice production on deep convective anvil cirrus R. Hawker et al.
- Sensitivities of warm conveyor belt ascent, associated precipitation characteristics and large‐scale flow pattern: Insights from a perturbed parameter ensemble A. Oertel et al.
- A Comparison of the Practical Predictability of Hail with Initial Perturbations of Climatological and Flow-Dependent Uncertainty in Ensembles X. Li
- Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms H. Punge et al.
- Assessing the performance of WRF model in simulating severe hailstorm events over Assam and Bihar, India . Bhavyasree et al.
- Swabian MOSES 2021: An interdisciplinary field campaign for investigating convective storms and their event chains M. Kunz et al.
- Spatiotemporal variability and trends of hailstorms over India A. Subba Rao et al.
- Representation of the autoconversion from cloud to rain using a weighted ensemble approach: a case study using WRF v4.1.3 J. Yin et al.
- Assessing the potential for simplification in global climate model cloud microphysics U. Proske et al.
- Sensitivity of mixed-phase moderately deep convective clouds to parameterizations of ice formation – an ensemble perspective A. Miltenberger & P. Field
- Weakening of tropical sea breeze convective systems through interactions of aerosol, radiation, and soil moisture J. Park & S. van den Heever
- Opinion: The importance and future development of perturbed parameter ensembles in climate and atmospheric science K. Carslaw et al.
- Influence of the Terminal Velocity of Graupel on the Simulation of a Convective System Over Beijing Y. Li et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 29 Apr 2026
Short summary
Severe hailstorms may cause damage to buildings and crops. Thus, the forecast of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models should be as reliable as possible.
Using statistical emulation, we identify those model input parameters describing environmental conditions and cloud microphysics which lead to large uncertainties in the prediction of deep convection. We find that the impact of the input parameters on the uncertainty depends on the considered output variable.
Severe hailstorms may cause damage to buildings and crops. Thus, the forecast of numerical...
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