Articles | Volume 24, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-509-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-509-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Jan 2024
Research article |
| 15 Jan 2024
| 15 Jan 2024
Exploring the ENSO modulation of the QBO periods with GISS E2.2 models
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA
Kevin J. DallaSanta
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA
Clara Orbe
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA
David H. Rind
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
Jeffrey A. Jonas
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA
Larissa Nazarenko
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA
Gavin A. Schmidt
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
Gary Russell
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
Related authors
Tiehan Zhou, Kevin DallaSanta, Larissa Nazarenko, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Zhonghai Jin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7395–7407, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7395-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7395-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric radiative damping increases with rising CO2. Sensitivity experiments using the one-dimensional mechanistic models of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) indicate a shortening of the simulated QBO period due to the enhancing of the radiative damping. This result suggests that increasing radiative damping may play a role in determining the QBO period in a warming climate along with wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and tropical vertical residual velocity.
Yoshio Kawatani, Kevin Hamilton, Shingo Watanabe, James A. Anstey, Jadwiga H. Richter, Neal Butchart, Clara Orbe, Scott M. Osprey, Hiroaki Naoe, Dillon Elsbury, Chih-Chieh Chen, Javier García-Serrano, Anne Glanville, Tobias Kerzenmacher, François Lott, Froila M. Palmerio, Mijeong Park, Federico Serva, Masakazu Taguchi, Stefan Versick, and Kohei Yoshioda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3270, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the tropical stratospheric mean winds has been relatively steady over the 7 decades it has been observed, but there are always cycle-to-cycle variations. This study used several global atmospheric models to investigate systematic modulation of the QBO by the El Niño/La Niña cycle. All models simulated shorter periods during El Niño, in agreement with observations. By contrast, the models disagreed even on the sign of the El Niño effect on QBO amplitude.
Cheng Zheng, Yutian Wu, Mingfang Ting, and Clara Orbe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6965–6985, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6965-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6965-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Trace gases and aerosols in the Arctic, which typically originate from midlatitude and tropical emission regions, modulate the Arctic climate via their radiative and chemistry impacts. Thus, long-range transport of these substances is important for understanding the current and the future change of Arctic climate. By employing chemistry–climate models, we explore how year-to-year variations in the atmospheric circulation modulate atmospheric long-range transport into the Arctic.
Lee T. Murray, Eric M. Leibensperger, Clara Orbe, Loretta J. Mickley, and Melissa Sulprizio
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5789–5823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5789-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5789-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical-transport models are tools used to study air pollution and inform public policy. However, they are limited by the availability of archived meteorology. Here, we describe how the GEOS-Chem chemical-transport model may now be driven by meteorology archived from a state-of-the-art general circulation model for past and future climates, allowing it to be used to explore the impact of climate change on air pollution and atmospheric composition.
Marta Abalos, Natalia Calvo, Samuel Benito-Barca, Hella Garny, Steven C. Hardiman, Pu Lin, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Rolando Garcia, Clara Orbe, David Saint-Martin, Shingo Watanabe, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13571–13591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), responsible for transporting mass, tracers and heat globally in the stratosphere, is evaluated in a set of state-of-the-art climate models. The acceleration of the BDC in response to increasing greenhouse gases is most robust in the lower stratosphere. At higher levels, the well-known inconsistency between model and observational BDC trends can be partly reconciled by accounting for limited sampling and large uncertainties in the observations.
Daniel J. Lunt, Deepak Chandan, Alan M. Haywood, George M. Lunt, Jonathan C. Rougier, Ulrich Salzmann, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Paul J. Valdes
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4307–4317, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4307-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Often in science we carry out experiments with computers in which several factors are explored, for example, in the field of climate science, how the factors of greenhouse gases, ice, and vegetation affect temperature. We can explore the relative importance of these factors by
swapping in and outdifferent values of these factors, and can also carry out experiments with many different combinations of these factors. This paper discusses how best to analyse the results from such experiments.
Tiehan Zhou, Kevin DallaSanta, Larissa Nazarenko, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Zhonghai Jin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7395–7407, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7395-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7395-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric radiative damping increases with rising CO2. Sensitivity experiments using the one-dimensional mechanistic models of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) indicate a shortening of the simulated QBO period due to the enhancing of the radiative damping. This result suggests that increasing radiative damping may play a role in determining the QBO period in a warming climate along with wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and tropical vertical residual velocity.
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO2 and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO2 it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.
Marta Abalos, Clara Orbe, Douglas E. Kinnison, David Plummer, Luke D. Oman, Patrick Jöckel, Olaf Morgenstern, Rolando R. Garcia, Guang Zeng, Kane A. Stone, and Martin Dameris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6883–6901, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A set of state-of-the art chemistry–climate models is used to examine future changes in downward transport from the stratosphere, a key contributor to tropospheric ozone. The acceleration of the stratospheric circulation results in increased stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. In the subtropics, downward advection into the troposphere is enhanced due to climate change. At higher latitudes, the ozone reservoir above the tropopause is enlarged due to the stronger circulation and ozone recovery.
Clara Orbe, David A. Plummer, Darryn W. Waugh, Huang Yang, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas E. Kinnison, Beatrice Josse, Virginie Marecal, Makoto Deushi, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Wuhu Feng, and Slimane Bekki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3809–3840, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3809-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3809-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric composition is strongly influenced by global-scale winds that are not always properly simulated in computer models. A common approach to correct for this bias is to relax or
nudgeto the observed winds. Here we systematically evaluate how well this technique performs across a large suite of chemistry–climate models in terms of its ability to reproduce key aspects of both the tropospheric and stratospheric circulations.
Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Clara Orbe, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Susan E. Strahan, Kane A. Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5511–5528, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5511-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5511-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the performance of a suite of models in simulating the large-scale transport from the northern midlatitudes to the Arctic using a CO-like idealized tracer. We find a large multi-model spread of the Arctic concentration of this CO-like tracer that is well correlated with the differences in the location of the midlatitude jet as well as the northern Hadley Cell edge. Our results suggest the Hadley Cell is key and zonal-mean transport by surface meridional flow needs better constraint.
Gab Abramowitz, Nadja Herger, Ethan Gutmann, Dorit Hammerling, Reto Knutti, Martin Leduc, Ruth Lorenz, Robert Pincus, and Gavin A. Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 91–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Best estimates of future climate projections typically rely on a range of climate models from different international research institutions. However, it is unclear how independent these different estimates are, and, for example, the degree to which their agreement implies robustness. This work presents a review of the varied and disparate attempts to quantify and address model dependence within multi-model climate projection ensembles.
Gary L. Russell, David H. Rind, and Jeffrey Jonas
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4637–4656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4637-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4637-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the Fortran 90 source code for one-layer model GISS:IB on an icosahedral grid. The model solves the shallow water equations on the sphere using three symmetric horizontal components of angular momentum instead of velocity. One-layer shallow water models are a basic building block used in complex global weather and climate models.
Xiaokang Wu, Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Clara Orbe, Simone Tilmes, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7439–7452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7439-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7439-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The seasonal and interannual variability of transport times from northern mid-latitudes into the southern hemisphere is examined using simulations of
agetracers. The largest variability occurs near the surface close to the tropical convergence zones, but the peak is further south and there is a smaller tropical–extratropical contrast for tracers with more rapid loss. Hence the variability of trace gases in the southern extratropics will vary with their chemical lifetime.
Clara Orbe, Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, John F. Scinocca, Beatrice Josse, Virginie Marecal, Patrick Jöckel, Luke D. Oman, Susan E. Strahan, Makoto Deushi, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Kohei Yoshida, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Andreas Stenke, Laura Revell, Timofei Sukhodolov, Eugene Rozanov, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7217–7235, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we compare a few atmospheric transport properties among several numerical models that are used to study the influence of atmospheric chemistry on climate. We show that there are large differences among models in terms of the timescales that connect the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, where greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances are emitted, to the Southern Hemisphere. Our results may have important implications for how models represent atmospheric composition.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Ruth M. Doherty, Clara Orbe, Guang Zeng, David A. Plummer, Michael J. Prather, Oliver Wild, Meiyun Lin, Drew T. Shindell, and Ian A. Mackenzie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14219–14237, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how climate change impacts global air pollution transport. To study transport changes, we use a carbon monoxide (CO) tracer species emitted from global sources. We find robust and consistent changes in CO-tracer distributions in climate change simulations performed by four chemistry–climate models in different seasons. We highlight the importance of the co-location of emission source regions and controlling transport processes in determining future pollution transport.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Gavin A. Schmidt, David Bader, Leo J. Donner, Gregory S. Elsaesser, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Cecile Hannay, Andrea Molod, Richard B. Neale, and Suranjana Saha
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3207–3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3207-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3207-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The development of coupled ocean atmosphere climate models is a complex process that inevitably includes multiple calibration steps (sometimes called
tuning). Tuning uses degrees of freedom allowed by uncertainties in model approximations to modify parameters to make the simulation better align with some selected observed target(s). We describe how these tuning targets, parameters, and philosophy vary across six US modeling centers in order to increase the transparency of the practice.
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, Karina von Schuckmann, David J. Beerling, Junji Cao, Shaun Marcott, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Michael J. Prather, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeremy Shakun, Pete Smith, Andrew Lacis, Gary Russell, and Reto Ruedy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 577–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global temperature now exceeds +1.25 °C relative to 1880–1920, similar to warmth of the Eemian period. Keeping warming less than 1.5 °C or CO2 below 350 ppm now requires extraction of CO2 from the air. If rapid phaseout of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, most extraction can be via improved agricultural and forestry practices. In contrast, continued high emissions places a burden on young people of massive technological CO2 extraction with large risks, high costs and uncertain feasibility.
Nir Y. Krakauer, Michael J. Puma, Benjamin I. Cook, Pierre Gentine, and Larissa Nazarenko
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 863–876, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-863-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-863-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated effects of irrigation on climate with the NASA GISS global climate model. Present-day irrigation levels affected air pressures and temperatures even in non-irrigated land and ocean areas. The simulated effect was bigger and more widespread when ocean temperatures in the climate model could change, rather than being fixed. We suggest that expanding irrigation may affect global climate more than previously believed.
E. Fischer, S. Nowicki, M. Kelley, and G. A. Schmidt
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 883–907, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-883-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-883-2014, 2014
G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 10, 221–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014
D. T. Shindell, O. Pechony, A. Voulgarakis, G. Faluvegi, L. Nazarenko, J.-F. Lamarque, K. Bowman, G. Milly, B. Kovari, R. Ruedy, and G. A. Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2653–2689, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2653-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2653-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
The impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the total column ozone over the Tibetan Plateau
Exploring ozone variability in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using dynamical coordinates
Climatology of the terms and variables of transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) equations from multiple reanalyses: MERRA-2, JRA-55, ERA-Interim, and CFSR
Age of air from in situ trace gas measurements: Insights from a new technique
Tropospheric Links to Uncertainty in Stratospheric Subseasonal Predictions
Quasi-biennial oscillation modulation of stratospheric water vapour in the Asian monsoon
Crucial role of obliquely propagating gravity waves in the quasi-biennial oscillation dynamics
Technical note: Multi-year changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation from Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) methane
The impact of ENSO and NAO initial conditions and anomalies on the modeled response to Pinatubo-sized volcanic forcing
Stratospherically induced circulation changes under the extreme conditions of the no-Montreal-Protocol scenario
Vortex preconditioning of the 2021 sudden stratospheric warming: barotropic–baroclinic instability associated with the double westerly jets
On the pattern of interannual polar vortex–ozone co-variability during northern hemispheric winter
A mountain ridge model for quantifying oblique mountain wave propagation and distribution
Weakening of the tropical tropopause layer cold trap with global warming
On the magnitude and sensitivity of the quasi-biennial oscillation response to a tropical volcanic eruption
The response of the North Pacific jet and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of ozone over western North America to RCP8.5 climate forcing
The Holton–Tan mechanism under stratospheric aerosol intervention
Very-long-period oscillations in the atmosphere (0–110 km) – Part 2: Latitude– longitude comparisons and trends
Driving mechanisms for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation impact on stratospheric ozone
Exploring the link between austral stratospheric polar vortex anomalies and surface climate in chemistry-climate models
The impact of improved spatial and temporal resolution of reanalysis data on Lagrangian studies of the tropical tropopause layer
Dynamics of ENSO-driven stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of ozone over North America
Ozone–gravity wave interaction in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere
How can Brewer–Dobson circulation trends be estimated from changes in stratospheric water vapour and methane?
The semi-annual oscillation (SAO) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS)
Interactions between the stratospheric polar vortex and Atlantic circulation on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales
Impacts of three types of solar geoengineering on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Enhanced upward motion through the troposphere over the tropical western Pacific and its implications for the transport of trace gases from the troposphere to the stratosphere
Evolution of the intensity and duration of the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex edge for the period 1979–2020
Characterization of transport from the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone into the UTLS via shedding of low potential vorticity cutoffs
Long-range prediction and the stratosphere
Weakening of Antarctic stratospheric planetary wave activities in early austral spring since the early 2000s: a response to sea surface temperature trends
The impact of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) sinks on age of air climatologies and trends
Specified dynamics scheme impacts on wave-mean flow dynamics, convection, and tracer transport in CESM2 (WACCM6)
Propagation paths and source distributions of resolved gravity waves in ECMWF-IFS analysis fields around the southern polar night jet
Observation and modeling of high-7Be concentration events at the surface in northern Europe associated with the instability of the Arctic polar vortex in early 2003
Eastward-propagating planetary waves in the polar middle atmosphere
The Brewer–Dobson circulation in CMIP6
Climate impact of volcanic eruptions: the sensitivity to eruption season and latitude in MPI-ESM ensemble experiments
Contributions of equatorial waves and small-scale convective gravity waves to the 2019/20 quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) disruption
Differences in the quasi-biennial oscillation response to stratospheric aerosol modification depending on injection strategy and species
The advective Brewer–Dobson circulation in the ERA5 reanalysis: climatology, variability, and trends
Is our dynamical understanding of the circulation changes associated with the Antarctic ozone hole sensitive to the choice of reanalysis dataset?
The impact of increasing stratospheric radiative damping on the quasi-biennial oscillation period
Analysis of recent lower-stratospheric ozone trends in chemistry climate models
Asymmetry and pathways of inter-hemispheric transport in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere
Effects of prescribed CMIP6 ozone on simulating the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation response to ozone depletion
Reanalysis intercomparison of potential vorticity and potential-vorticity-based diagnostics
Influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on entry stratospheric water vapor in coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models
Reappraising the appropriate calculation of a common meteorological quantity: potential temperature
Yang Li, Wuhu Feng, Xin Zhou, Yajuan Li, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8277–8293, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8277-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Tibetan Plateau (TP), the highest and largest plateau, experiences strong surface solar UV radiation, whose excess can cause harmful influences on local biota. Hence, it is critical to study TP ozone. We find ENSO, the strongest interannual phenomenon, tends to induce tropospheric temperature change and thus modulate tropopause variability, which in turn favours ozone change over the TP. Our results have implications for a better understanding of the interannual variability of TP ozone.
Luis F. Millán, Peter Hoor, Michaela I. Hegglin, Gloria L. Manney, Harald Boenisch, Paul Jeffery, Daniel Kunkel, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Hao Ye, Thierry Leblanc, and Kaley Walker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7927–7959, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7927-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In the Observed Composition Trends And Variability in the UTLS (OCTAV-UTLS) Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) activity, we have mapped multiplatform ozone datasets into coordinate systems to systematically evaluate the influence of these coordinates on binned climatological variability. This effort unifies the work of studies that focused on individual coordinate system variability. Our goal was to create the most comprehensive assessment of this topic.
Masatomo Fujiwara, Patrick Martineau, Jonathon S. Wright, Marta Abalos, Petr Šácha, Yoshio Kawatani, Sean M. Davis, Thomas Birner, and Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7873–7898, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A climatology of the major variables and terms of the transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) momentum and thermodynamic equations from four global atmospheric reanalyses is evaluated. The spread among reanalysis TEM momentum balance terms is around 10 % in Northern Hemisphere winter and up to 50 % in Southern Hemisphere winter. The largest uncertainties in the thermodynamic equation (about 50 %) are in the vertical advection, which does not show a structure consistent with the differences in heating.
Eric A. Ray, Fred L. Moore, Hella Garny, Eric J. Hintsa, Bradley D. Hall, Geoff S. Dutton, David Nance, James W. Elkins, Steven C. Wofsy, Jasna Pittman, Bruce Daube, Bianca C. Baier, Jianghanyang Li, and Colm Sweeney
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1887, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we describe new techniques to derive age of air from multiple simultaneous measurements of long-lived trace gases in order to improve the fidelity of the age of air estimates and to be able to compare age of air from measurements taken from different instruments, platforms and decades. This technique also allows new transport information to be obtained from the measurements such as the primary source latitude that can also be compared to models.
Rachel W.-Y. Wu, Gabriel Chiodo, Inna Polichtchouk, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1652, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1652, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Strong variations in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex can profoundly affect surface weather extremes, therefore, accurately predicting the stratosphere can improve surface weather forecasts. The research reveals how uncertainty in the stratosphere is linked to the troposphere. The findings suggest that refining models to better represent the identified sources and impact regions in the troposphere is likely to improve the prediction of the stratosphere and its surface impacts.
Cristina Peña-Ortiz, Nuria Pilar Plaza, David Gallego, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5457–5478, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Although water vapour (H2O) in the lower stratosphere is only a few molecules among 1 million air molecules, atmospheric radiative forcing and surface temperature are sensitive to changes in its concentration. Monsoon regions play a key role in H2O transport and its concentration in the lower stratosphere. We show how the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) has a major impact on H2O over the Asian monsoon during August through changes in temperature caused by QBO modulation of tropical clouds.
Young-Ha Kim, Georg Sebastian Voelker, Gergely Bölöni, Günther Zängl, and Ulrich Achatz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3297–3308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3297-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3297-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The quasi-biennial oscillation, which governs the tropical stratospheric circulation, is driven primarily by small-scale wave processes. We employ a novel method to realistically represent these wave processes in a global model, thereby revealing an aspect of the oscillation that has not been identified before. We find that the oblique propagation of waves, a process neglected by existing climate models, plays a pivotal role in the stratospheric circulation and its oscillation.
Ellis Remsberg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1691–1697, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1691-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CH4 data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment show clear changes in the deep and shallow branches of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) from 1992 to 2005. CH4 decreased in the upper stratosphere in the early 1990s following the Pinatubo eruption. There was also meridional transport of CH4 from the tropics to mid-latitudes in both hemispheres in the late 1990s. CH4 trends in the shallow branch agree with the tropospheric CH4 trends from 1996 to 2005.
Helen Weierbach, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Kostas Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15491–15505, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15491-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15491-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic aerosols impact global and regional climate conditions but can vary depending on pre-existing initial climate conditions. We ran an ensemble of volcanic aerosol simulations under varying ENSO and NAO initial conditions to understand how initial climate states impact the modeled response to volcanic forcing. Overall we found that initial NAO conditions can impact the strength of the first winter post-eruptive response but are also affected by the choice of anomaly and sampling routine.
Franziska Zilker, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Marina Friedel, Tatiana Egorova, Eugene Rozanov, Jan Sedlacek, Svenja Seeber, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13387–13411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13387-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Montreal Protocol (MP) has successfully reduced the Antarctic ozone hole by banning chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that destroy the ozone layer. Moreover, CFCs are strong greenhouse gases (GHGs) that would have strengthened global warming. In this study, we investigate the surface weather and climate in a world without the MP at the end of the 21st century, disentangling ozone-mediated and GHG impacts of CFCs. Overall, we avoided 1.7 K global surface warming and a poleward shift in storm tracks.
Ji-Hee Yoo, Hye-Yeong Chun, and Min-Jee Kang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10869–10881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10869-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10869-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming was preceded by unusual double westerly jets with polar stratospheric and subtropical mesospheric cores. This wind structure promotes anomalous dissipation of tropospheric planetary waves between the two maxima, leading to unusually strong shear instability. Shear instability generates the westward-propagating planetary waves with zonal wavenumber 2 in situ, thereby splitting the polar vortex just before the onset.
Frederik Harzer, Hella Garny, Felix Ploeger, Harald Bönisch, Peter Hoor, and Thomas Birner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10661–10675, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10661-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the statistical relation between year-by-year fluctuations in winter-mean ozone and the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. In the latitude–pressure plane, regression analysis shows that anomalously weak polar vortex years are associated with three pronounced local ozone maxima over the polar cap relative to the winter climatology. These response maxima primarily reflect the non-trivial combination of different ozone transport processes with varying relative contributions.
Sebastian Rhode, Peter Preusse, Manfred Ern, Jörn Ungermann, Lukas Krasauskas, Julio Bacmeister, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7901–7934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7901-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7901-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Gravity waves (GWs) transport energy vertically and horizontally within the atmosphere and thereby affect wind speeds far from their sources. Here, we present a model that identifies orographic GW sources and predicts the pathways of the excited GWs through the atmosphere for a better understanding of horizontal GW propagation. We use this model to explain physical patterns in satellite observations (e.g., low GW activity above the Himalaya) and predict seasonal patterns of GW propagation.
Stephen Bourguet and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7447–7460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7447-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7447-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we show how projected changes to tropical circulation will impact the water vapor concentration in the lower stratosphere, which has implications for surface climate and stratospheric chemistry. In our transport scenarios with slower east–west winds, air parcels ascending into the stratosphere do not experience the same cold temperatures that they would today. This effect could act in concert with previously modeled changes to stratospheric water vapor to amplify surface warming.
Flossie Brown, Lauren Marshall, Peter H. Haynes, Rolando R. Garcia, Thomas Birner, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5335–5353, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Large-magnitude volcanic eruptions have the potential to alter large-scale circulation patterns, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO is an oscillation of the tropical stratospheric zonal winds between easterly and westerly directions. Using a climate model, we show that large-magnitude eruptions can delay the progression of the QBO, with a much longer delay when the shear is easterly than when it is westerly. Such delays may affect weather and transport of atmospheric gases.
Dillon Elsbury, Amy H. Butler, John R. Albers, Melissa L. Breeden, and Andrew O'Neil Langford
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5101–5117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5101-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
One of the global hotspots where stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) of ozone takes place is over Pacific North America (PNA). However, we do not know how or if STT over PNA will change in response to climate change. Using climate model experiments forced with
worst-casescenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change, we find that changes in net chemical production and transport of ozone in the lower stratosphere increase STT of ozone over PNA in the future.
Khalil Karami, Rolando Garcia, Christoph Jacobi, Jadwiga H. Richter, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3799–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Alongside mitigation and adaptation efforts, stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) is increasingly considered a third pillar to combat dangerous climate change. We investigate the teleconnection between the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere and the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex under a warmer climate and an SAI scenario. We show that the Holton–Tan relationship weakens under both scenarios and discuss the physical mechanisms responsible for such changes.
Dirk Offermann, Christoph Kalicinsky, Ralf Koppmann, and Johannes Wintel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3267–3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric oscillations with periods between 5 and more than 200 years are believed to be self-excited (internal) in the atmosphere, i.e. non-anthropogenic. They are found at all altitudes up to 110 km and at four very different geographical locations (75° N, 70° E; 75° N, 280° E; 50° N, 7° E; 50° S, 7° E). Therefore, they hint at a global-oscillation mode. Their amplitudes are on the order of present-day climate trends, and it is therefore difficult to disentangle them.
Samuel Benito-Barca, Natalia Calvo, and Marta Abalos
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15729–15745, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15729-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of different El Niño flavors (eastern (EP) and central (CP) Pacific El Niño) and La Niña on the stratospheric ozone is studied in a state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model. Ozone reduces in the tropics and increases in the extratropics when an EP El Niño event occurs, the opposite of La Niña. However, CP El Niño has no impact on extratropical ozone. These ozone variations are driven by changes in the stratospheric transport circulation, with an important contribution of mixing.
Nora Bergner, Marina Friedel, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Darryn Waugh, and Gabriel Chiodo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13915–13934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13915-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Polar vortex extremes, particularly situations with an unusually weak cyclonic circulation in the stratosphere, can influence the surface climate in the spring–summer time in the Southern Hemisphere. Using chemistry-climate models and observations, we evaluate the robustness of the surface impacts. While models capture the general surface response, they do not show the observed climate patterns in midlatitude regions, which we trace back to biases in the models' circulations.
Stephen Bourguet and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13325–13339, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13325-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we tested the impact of spatial and temporal resolution on Lagrangian trajectory studies in a key region of interest for climate feedbacks and stratospheric chemistry. Our analysis shows that new higher-resolution input data provide an opportunity for a better understanding of physical processes that control how air moves from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Future studies of how these processes will change in a warming climate will benefit from these results.
John R. Albers, Amy H. Butler, Andrew O. Langford, Dillon Elsbury, and Melissa L. Breeden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13035–13048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone transported from the stratosphere contributes to background ozone concentrations in the free troposphere and to surface ozone exceedance events that affect human health. The physical processes whereby the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates North American stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone transport during spring are documented, and the usefulness of ENSO for predicting ozone events that may cause exceedances in surface air quality standards are assessed.
Axel Gabriel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10425–10441, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10425-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10425-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent measurements show some evidence that the amplitudes of atmospheric gravity waves (horizontal wavelengths of 100–2000 km), which propagate from the troposphere (0–10 km) to the stratosphere and mesosphere (10–100 km), increase more strongly with height during daytime than during nighttime. This study shows that ozone–temperature coupling in the upper stratosphere can principally produce such an amplification. The results will help to improve atmospheric circulation models.
Liubov Poshyvailo-Strube, Rolf Müller, Stephan Fueglistaler, Michaela I. Hegglin, Johannes C. Laube, C. Michael Volk, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9895–9914, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9895-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) controls the composition of the stratosphere, which in turn affects radiation and climate. As the BDC cannot be measured directly, it is necessary to infer its strength and trends indirectly. In this study, we test in the
model worlddifferent methods for estimating the mean age of air trends based on a combination of stratospheric water vapour and methane data. We also provide simple practical advice of a more reliable estimation of the mean age of air trends.
Ming Shangguan and Wuke Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9499–9511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9499-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Skilful predictions of weather and climate on subseasonal to seasonal scales are valuable for decision makers. Here we show the global spatiotemporal variation of the temperature SAO in the UTLS with GNSS RO and reanalysis data. The formation of the SAO is explained by an energy budget analysis. The results show that the SAO in the UTLS is partly modified by the SSTs according to model simulations. The results may provide an important source for seasonal predictions of the surface weather.
Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, Scott Osprey, Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton, and Bablu Sinha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4867–4893, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines interactions between variations in the strength of polar stratospheric winds and circulation in the North Atlantic in a climate model simulation. It finds that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) responds with oscillations to sets of consecutive Northern Hemisphere winters, which show all strong or all weak polar vortex conditions. The study also shows that a set of strong vortex winters in the 1990s contributed to the recent slowdown in the observed AMOC.
Mengdie Xie, John C. Moore, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4581–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4581-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use data from six Earth system models to estimate Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) changes and its drivers under four different solar geoengineering methods. Solar dimming seems relatively more effective than marine cloud brightening or stratospheric aerosol injection at reversing greenhouse-gas-driven declines in AMOC. Geoengineering-induced AMOC amelioration is due to better maintenance of air–sea temperature differences and reduced loss of Arctic summer sea ice.
Kai Qie, Wuke Wang, Wenshou Tian, Rui Huang, Mian Xu, Tao Wang, and Yifeng Peng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4393–4411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4393-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We identify a significantly intensified upward motion over the tropical western Pacific (TWP) and an enhanced tropical upwelling in boreal winter during 1958–2017 due to the warming of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Our results suggest that more tropospheric trace gases over the TWP could be elevated to the lower stratosphere, which implies that the emission from the maritime continent plays a more important role in the stratospheric processes and the global climate.
Audrey Lecouffe, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Andrea Pazmiño, and Alain Hauchecorne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4187–4200, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4187-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4187-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a model developped at LATMOS (France) to analyze the behavior of the Antarctic polar vortex from 1979 to 2020 at 675 K, 550 K, and 475 K isentropic levels. We found that the vortex edge intensity is stronger during the September–October–November period, while its edge position is less extended during this period. The polar vortex is stronger and lasts longer during solar minimum years. Breakup dates of the polar vortex are linked to the ozone hole and maximum wind speed.
Jan Clemens, Felix Ploeger, Paul Konopka, Raphael Portmann, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3841–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3841-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Highly polluted air flows from the surface to higher levels of the atmosphere during the Asian summer monsoon. At high levels, the air is trapped within eddies. Here, we study how air masses can leave the eddy within its cutoff, how they distribute, and how their chemical composition changes. We found evidence for transport from the eddy to higher latitudes over the North Pacific and even Alaska. During transport, trace gas concentrations within cutoffs changed gradually, showing steady mixing.
Adam A. Scaife, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun-Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok-Woo Son, and David W. J. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2601–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate, and here we review its role in long-range predictions and projections from weeks to decades ahead.
Yihang Hu, Wenshou Tian, Jiankai Zhang, Tao Wang, and Mian Xu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1575–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1575-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic stratospheric wave activities in September have been weakening significantly since the 2000s. Further analysis supports the finding that sea surface temperature (SST) trends over 20° N–70° S lead to the weakening of stratospheric wave activities, while the response of stratospheric wave activities to ozone recovery is weak. Thus, the SST trend should be taken into consideration when exploring the mechanism for the climate transition in the southern hemispheric stratosphere around 2000.
Sheena Loeffel, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Reddmann, Frauke Fritsch, Stefan Versick, Gabriele Stiller, and Florian Haenel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1175–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1175-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1175-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
SF6-derived trends of stratospheric AoA from observations and model simulations disagree in sign. SF6 experiences chemical degradation, which we explicitly integrate in a global climate model. In our simulations, the AoA trend changes sign when SF6 sinks are considered; thus, the process has the potential to reconcile simulated with observed AoA trends. We show that the positive AoA trend is due to the SF6 sinks themselves and provide a first approach for a correction to account for SF6 loss.
Nicholas A. Davis, Patrick Callaghan, Isla R. Simpson, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 197–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-197-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Specified dynamics schemes attempt to constrain the atmospheric circulation in a climate model to isolate the role of transport in chemical variability, evaluate model physics, and interpret field campaign observations. We show that the specified dynamics scheme in CESM2 erroneously suppresses convection and induces circulation errors that project onto errors in tracers, even using the most optimal settings. Development of a more sophisticated scheme is necessary for future progress.
Cornelia Strube, Peter Preusse, Manfred Ern, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18641–18668, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18641-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18641-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
High gravity wave (GW) momentum fluxes in the lower stratospheric southern polar vortex around 60° S are still poorly understood. Few GW sources are found at these latitudes. We present a ray tracing case study on waves resolved in high-resolution global model temperatures southeast of New Zealand. We show that lateral propagation of more than 1000 km takes place below 20 km altitude, and a variety of orographic and non-orographic sources located north of 50° S generate the wave field.
Erika Brattich, Hongyu Liu, Bo Zhang, Miguel Ángel Hernández-Ceballos, Jussi Paatero, Darko Sarvan, Vladimir Djurdjevic, Laura Tositti, and Jelena Ajtić
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17927–17951, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17927-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17927-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyse the output of a chemistry and transport model together with observations of different meteorological and compositional variables to demonstrate the link between sudden stratospheric warming and transport of stratospheric air to the surface in the subpolar regions of Europe during the cold season. Our findings have particular implications for atmospheric composition since climate projections indicate more frequent sudden stratospheric warming under a warmer climate.
Liang Tang, Sheng-Yang Gu, and Xian-Kang Dou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17495–17512, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17495-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores the variation in the occurrence date, peak amplitude and wave period for eastward waves and the role of instability, background wind structure and the critical layer in eastward wave propagation and amplification.
Marta Abalos, Natalia Calvo, Samuel Benito-Barca, Hella Garny, Steven C. Hardiman, Pu Lin, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Rolando Garcia, Clara Orbe, David Saint-Martin, Shingo Watanabe, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13571–13591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), responsible for transporting mass, tracers and heat globally in the stratosphere, is evaluated in a set of state-of-the-art climate models. The acceleration of the BDC in response to increasing greenhouse gases is most robust in the lower stratosphere. At higher levels, the well-known inconsistency between model and observational BDC trends can be partly reconciled by accounting for limited sampling and large uncertainties in the observations.
Zhihong Zhuo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13425–13442, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of volcanic eruptions varies with eruption season and latitude. This study simulated eruptions at different latitudes and in different seasons with a fully coupled climate model. The climate impacts of northern and southern hemispheric eruptions are reversed but are insensitive to eruption season. Results suggest that the regional climate impacts are due to the dynamical response of the climate system to radiative effects of volcanic aerosols and the subsequent regional feedbacks.
Min-Jee Kang and Hye-Yeong Chun
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9839–9857, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9839-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9839-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In winter 2019/20, the westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase was disrupted again by easterly winds. It is found that strong Rossby waves from the Southern Hemisphere weaken the jet core in early stages, and strong mixed Rossby–gravity waves reverse the wind in later stages. Inertia–gravity waves and small-scale convective gravity waves also provide negative forcing. These strong waves are attributed to an anomalous wind profile, barotropic instability, and slightly strong convection.
Henning Franke, Ulrike Niemeier, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8615–8635, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol modification (SAM) can alter the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Our simulations with two different models show that the characteristics of the QBO response are primarily determined by the meridional structure of the aerosol-induced heating. Therefore, the QBO response to SAM depends primarily on the location of injection, while injection type and rate act to scale the specific response. Our results have important implications for evaluating adverse side effects of SAM.
Mohamadou Diallo, Manfred Ern, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7515–7544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7515-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7515-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Despite good agreement in the spatial structure, there are substantial differences in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) and its modulations in the UTLS and upper stratosphere. The tropical upwelling is generally weaker in ERA5 than in ERAI due to weaker planetary and gravity wave breaking in the UTLS. Analysis of the BDC trend shows an acceleration of the BDC of about 1.5 % decade-1 due to the long-term intensification in wave breaking, consistent with climate predictions.
Andrew Orr, Hua Lu, Patrick Martineau, Edwin P. Gerber, Gareth J. Marshall, and Thomas J. Bracegirdle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7451–7472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7451-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Reanalysis datasets combine observations and weather forecast simulations to create our best estimate of the state of the atmosphere and are important for climate monitoring. Differences in the technical details of these products mean that they may give different results. This study therefore examined how changes associated with the so-called Antarctic ozone hole are represented, which is one of the most important climate changes in recent decades, and showed that they were broadly consistent.
Tiehan Zhou, Kevin DallaSanta, Larissa Nazarenko, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Zhonghai Jin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7395–7407, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7395-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7395-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric radiative damping increases with rising CO2. Sensitivity experiments using the one-dimensional mechanistic models of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) indicate a shortening of the simulated QBO period due to the enhancing of the radiative damping. This result suggests that increasing radiative damping may play a role in determining the QBO period in a warming climate along with wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and tropical vertical residual velocity.
Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Roland Eichinger, and William T. Ball
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6811–6837, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6811-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6811-2021, 2021
Xiaolu Yan, Paul Konopka, Marius Hauck, Aurélien Podglajen, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6627–6645, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6627-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Inter-hemispheric transport is important for understanding atmospheric tracers because of the asymmetry in emissions between the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH). This study finds that the air masses from the NH extratropics to the atmosphere are about 5 times larger than those from the SH extratropics. The interplay between the Asian summer monsoon and westerly ducts triggers the cross-Equator transport from the NH to the SH in boreal summer and fall.
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Sebastian Wahl, Jan Harlaß, and Arne Biastoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5777–5806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ozone hole has driven substantial dynamical changes in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere over the past decades. This study separates the historical impacts of ozone depletion from those of rising levels of greenhouse gases and investigates how these impacts are captured in two types of climate models: one using interactive atmospheric chemistry and one prescribing the CMIP6 ozone field. The effects of ozone depletion are more pronounced in the model with interactive chemistry.
Luis F. Millán, Gloria L. Manney, and Zachary D. Lawrence
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5355–5376, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5355-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We assess how consistently reanalyses represent potential vorticity (PV) among each other. PV helps describe dynamical processes in the stratosphere because it acts approximately as a tracer of the movement of air parcels; it is extensively used to identify the location of the tropopause and to identify and characterize the stratospheric polar vortex. Overall, PV from all reanalyses agrees well with the reanalysis ensemble mean.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ohad Harari, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Jian Rao, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Fiona M. O'Connor, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3725–3740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and El Niño is the dominant mode of variability in the ocean–atmosphere system. The connection between El Niño and water vapor above ~ 17 km is unclear, with single-model studies reaching a range of conclusions. This study examines this connection in 12 different models. While there are substantial differences among the models, all models appear to capture the fundamental physical processes correctly.
Manuel Baumgartner, Ralf Weigel, Allan H. Harvey, Felix Plöger, Ulrich Achatz, and Peter Spichtinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15585–15616, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15585-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15585-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The potential temperature is routinely used in atmospheric science. We review its derivation and suggest a new potential temperature, based on a temperature-dependent parameterization of the dry air's specific heat capacity. Moreover, we compare the new potential temperature to the common one and discuss the differences which become more important at higher altitudes. Finally, we indicate some consequences of using the new potential temperature in typical applications.
Cited articles
Alexander, M. J., Ortland, D. A., Grimsdell, A. W., and Kim, J.-E.: Sensitivity of Gravity Wave Fluxes to Interannual Variations in Tropical Convection and Zonal Wind, J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 2701–2716, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0044.1, 2017.
Andrews, D. G., Mahlman, J. D., and Sinclair, R. W.: Eliassen–Palm diagnostics of wave-mean flow interaction in the GFDL” SKYHI” general circulation model, J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 2768–2784, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1983)040<2768:ETWATM>2.0.CO;2, 1983.
Andrews, D. G., Holton, J. R., and Leovy, C. B.: Middle Atmosphere Dynamics, Academic Press, 489 pp., ISBN 0-12-058576-6, 1987.
Angell, J. K.: On the variation in period and amplitude of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere, 1951–85, Mon. Weather Rev., 114, 2272–2278, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<2272:OTVIPA>2.0.CO;2, 1986.
Anstey, J. A., Banyard, T. P., Butchart, N., Coy, L., Newman, P. A., Osprey, S., and Wright, C. J.: Prospect of Increased Disruption to the QBO in a Changing Climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL093058, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093058, 2021.
Baldwin, M. P., Gray, L. J., Dunkerton, T. J., Hamilton, K., Haynes, P. H., Randel, W. J., Holton, J. R., Alexander, M. J., Hirota, I., Horinouchi, T., Jones, D. B. A., Kinnersley, J. S., Marquardt, C., Sato, K., and Takahashi, M.: The Quasi-biennial oscillation, Rev. Geophys., 39, 179–229, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999RG000073, 2001.
Bauer, S. E., Tsigaridis, K., Faluvegi, G., Kelley, M., Lo, K. K., Miller, R. L., Nazarenko, L., Schmidt, G. A., and Wu, J.: Historical (1850–2014) Aerosol Evolution and Role on Climate Forcing Using the GISS ModelE2.1 Contribution to CMIP6, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001978, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ms001978, 2020.
Bergman, J. W. and Salby, M. L.: Equatorial wave activity derived from fluctuations in observed convection, J. Atmos. Sci. 51, 3791–3806, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<3791:EWADFF>2.0.CO;2, 1994.
Bjerknes, J.: Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific, Mon. Weather Rev., 97, 163–172, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1969)097<0163:ATFTEP>2.3.CO;2, 1969.
Bushell, A. C., Anstey, J. A., Butchart, N., Kawatani, Y., Osprey, S. M., Richter, J. H., Serva, F., Braesicke, P., Cagnazzo, C., Chen, C.-C., Chun, H.-Y., Garcia, R. R., Gray, L. J., Hamilton, K., Kerzenmacher, T., Kim, Y.-H., Lott, F., McLandress, C., Naoe, H., Scinocca, J., Smith, A. K., Stockdale, T. N., Versick, S., Watanabe, S., Yoshida, K., and Yukimoto, S.: Evaluation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in global climate models for the SPARC QBO-initiative, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 148, 1459–1489, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3765, 2022.
Butchart, N., Anstey, J. A., Hamilton, K., Osprey, S., McLandress, C., Bushell, A. C., Kawatani, Y., Kim, Y.-H., Lott, F., Scinocca, J., Stockdale, T. N., Andrews, M., Bellprat, O., Braesicke, P., Cagnazzo, C., Chen, C.-C., Chun, H.-Y., Dobrynin, M., Garcia, R. R., Garcia-Serrano, J., Gray, L. J., Holt, L., Kerzenmacher, T., Naoe, H., Pohlmann, H., Richter, J. H., Scaife, A. A., Schenzinger, V., Serva, F., Versick, S., Watanabe, S., Yoshida, K., and Yukimoto, S.: Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1009–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018, 2018.
Calvo, N., Garcia, R. R., Randel, W. J., and Marsh, D. R.: Dynamical mechanism for the increase in tropical upwelling in the lowermost tropical stratosphere during warm ENSO events, J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 2331–2340, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3433.1, 2010.
Cane, M. and Zebiak, S. E.: Prediction of El Niño events using a physical model, in Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability, edited by: Cattle, H., Royal Meteorological Society Press, London, 153–182, ISBN 0948090030, 1987.
Chernick, M. R.: Bootstrap methods: A guide for practitioners and researchers, Wiley-Interscience, 369 pp., ISBN 978-0-471-75621-7, 2007.
Christiansen, B., Yang, S., and Madsen, M. S.: Do strong warm ENSO events control the phase of the stratospheric QBO?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 10489–10495, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070751, 2016.
Collimore, C. C., Martin, D. W., Hitchman, M. H., Huesmann, A., and Waliser, D. E.: On the relationship between the QBO and tropical deep convection, J. Climate, 16, 2552–2568, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2552:OTRBTQ>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Coy, L., Newman, P. A., Strahan, S., and Pawson, S.: Seasonal variation of the quasi-biennial oscillation descent, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2020JD033077, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033077, 2020.
DallaSanta, K., Orbe, C., Rind, D., Nazarenko, L., and Jonas, J.: Dynamical and trace gas responses of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to increased CO2, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD034151. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034151, 2021.
Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., and Butler, A. H.: The Teleconnection of El Niño Southern Oscillation to the Stratosphere, Rev. Geophys., 57, 5–47, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000596, 2019.
Garfinkel, C. I. and Hartmann, D. L.: Effects of El Nino – Southern Oscillation and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on polar tem- peratures in the stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D19112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008481, 2007.
Garfinkel, C. I. and Hartmann, D. L.: The influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the troposphere in winter in a hierarchy of models. Part I: Simplified dry GCMs, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 1273–1289, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JAS3665.1, 2011a.
Garfinkel, C. I. and Hartmann, D. L.: The influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the troposphere in winter in a hierarchy of models. Part II: Perpetual winter WACCM runs, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2026–2041, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JAS3702.1, 2011b.
Geller, M. A., Shen, W., Zhang, M., and Tan, W.-W.: Calculations of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation for time-varying wave forcing, J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 883–894, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054<0883:COTSQB>2.0.CO;2, 1997.
Geller, M. A., Zhou, T., Shindell, D., Ruedy, R., Aleinov, I., Nazarenko, L., Tausnev, N. L., Kelley, M., Sun, S., Cheng, Y., Field, R. D., and Faluvegi, G.: Modeling the QBO-improvements resulting from higher-model vertical resolution, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 8, 1092–1105, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000699, 2016a.
Geller, M. A., Zhou, T., and Yuan, W.: The QBO, gravity waves forced by tropical convection, and ENSO, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 8886–8895, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024125, 2016b.
Giorgetta, M. A., Bengtson, L., and Arpe, K.: An investigation of QBO signals in the east Asian and Indian monsoon in GCM experiments, Clim. Dynam., 15, 435–450, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050292, 1999.
Giorgetta, M. A., Manzini, E., and Roeckner, E., Esch, M., and Bengtsson, L.: Climatology and forcing of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the MAECHEM5 model, J. Climate, 19, 3882–3901, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3830.1, 2006.
Graham, N. E. and Barnett, T. P.: Sea surface temperature, surface wind divergence, and convection over tropical oceans, Science, 238, 657–659, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.238.4827.657, 1987.
Gray, W. M.: Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El Niño and 30-mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences, Mon. Weather Rev., 112, 1649–1688, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1649:ASHFPI>2.0.CO;2, 1984.
Gray, W. M., Sheaffer, J. D., and Knaff, J.: Influence of the stratospheric QBO on ENSO variability, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 70, 975–995, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.70.5_975, 1992.
Grothe, P. R., Cobb, K. M., Liguori, G., Di Lorenzo, E., Capotondi, A., Lu, Y., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Southon, J. R., Santos, G. M., Deocampo, D. M., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Chen, T., Sayani, H. R., Thompson, D. M., Conroy, J. L., Moore, A. L., Townsend, K., Hagos, M., O'Connor, G., and Toth, L. T.: Enhanced El Niño–Southern oscillation variability in recent decades, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL083906, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083906, 2019.
Hamilton, K., Hertzog, A., Vial, F., and Stenchikov, G.: Longitudinal variation of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 383–402, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0383:LVOTSQ>2.0.CO;2, 2004.
Hamilton, K., Osprey, S., and Butchart, N.: Modeling the stratosphere's “heartbeat”, Eos, 96, p. 8, https://doi.org/10.1029/2015EO032301, 2015.
Hansen, F., Matthes, K., and Wahl, S.: Tropospheric QBO–ENSO interactions and differences between the Atlantic and Pacific, J. Climate, 29, 1353–1368, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0164.1, 2016.
Hasebe, F.: Quasi-biennial oscillations of ozone and diabatic circulation in the equatorial stratosphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 729–745, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<0729:QBOOOA>2.0.CO;2, 1994.
Haynes, P. H., McIntyre, M. E., Shepherd, T. G., Marks, C. J., and Shine, K. P.: On the “Downward Control” of Extratropical Diabatic Circulations by Eddy-Induced Mean Zonal Forces, J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 651–678, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048<0651:OTCOED>2.0.CO;2, 1991.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 monthly averaged data on pressure levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.6860a573, 2023.
Hitchman, M. H. and Huesmann, A. S.: Seasonal influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on stratospheric jets and Rossby wave breaking, J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 935–946, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAS2631.1, 2009.
Ho, C.-H., Kim, H.-S., Jeong, J.-H., and Son, S.-W.: Influence of stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation on tropical cyclone tracks in the western North Pacific, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L06702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037163, 2009.
Holton, J.: Waves in the equatorial stratospheric generated by tropospheric heat resources, J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 368–375, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1972)029<0368:WITESG>2.0.CO;2, 1972.
Holton, J. R. and Lindzen, R. S.: An updated theory for the quasi-biennial cycle of the tropical stratosphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 1076–1080, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1972)029<1076:AUTFTQ>2.0.CO;2, 1972.
Holton, J. R. and Tan, H.: The Influence of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation on the global circulation at 50 mb, J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 2200–2208, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1980)037<2200:TIOTEQ>2.0.CO;2, 1980.
Horinouchi, T., Pawson, S., Shibata, K., Manzini, E., Giorgetta, M., and Sassi, F.: Tropical cumulus convection and upward propagating waves in middle-atmospheric GCMs, J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 2765–2782, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<2765:TCCAUW>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Hu, Z.-Z., Huang, B., Kinter, J. L., Wu, Z., and Kumar, A.: Connection of the stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part II: Interdecadal variations, Clim. Dynam., 38, 25–43, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1073-6, 2012.
Huang, B., Hu, Z. Z., Kinter, J. L., Wu, Z., and Kumar, A.: Connection of stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part I: Methodology and composite life cycle, Clim. Dynam., 38, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1250-7, 2012.
Huang, B., Thorne, P. W., Banzon, V. F., Boyer, T., Chepurin, G., Lawrimore, J. H., Menne M. J., Smith, T. M., Vose R. S., and Zhang, H. M.: Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature, version 5 (ERSSTv5): upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons, J. Climate, 30, 8179–8205, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1, 2017a.
Huang, B., Thorne, P. W., Banzon, V. F., Boyer, T., Chepurin, G., Lawrimore, J. H., Menne M. J., Smith, T. M., Vose R. S., and Zhang, H. M.: NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), Version 5, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information [data set], https://doi.org/10.7289/V5T72FNM, 2017b.
Kang, M.-J., Chun, H.-Y., Kim, Y.-H., Preusse, P., and Ern, M.: Momentum flux of convective gravity waves derived from an offline gravity wave parameterization. Part II: Impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 3753–3775, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0094.1, 2018.
Kawatani, Y., Lee, J. N., and Hamilton, K.: Interannual variations of stratospheric water vapor in MLS observations and climate model simulations, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 4072–4085, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0164.1, 2014.
Kawatani, Y., Hamilton, K., Sato, K., Dunkerton, T. J., Watanabe, S., and Kikuchi, K.: ENSO Modulation of the QBO: Results from MIROC Models with and without Nonorographic Gravity Wave Parameterization, J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 3893–3917, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-19-0163.1, 2019.
Kelley, M., Schmidt, G. A., Nazarenko, L. S., Bauer, S. E., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L., Ackerman, A. S., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Cesana, G., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Cook, B. I., Cruz, C. A., Del Genio, A. D., Elsaesser, G. S., Faluvegi, G., Kiang, N. Y., Kim, D., Lacis, A. A., Leboissetier, A., LeGrande, A. N., Lo, K. K., Marshall, J., Matthews, E. E., McDermid, S., Mezuman, K., Miller, R. L., Murray, L. T., Oinas, V., Orbe, C., Pérez, C., García-Pando, C., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M. J., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Tausnev, N., Tsigaridis, K., Tselioudis, G., Weng, E., Wu, J., and Yao, M.-S.: GISS-E2.1: Configurations and climatology, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002025, 2020.
Kumar V., Yoden, S., and Hitchman, M. H.: QBO and ENSO effects on the mean meridional circulation, polar vortex, subtropical westerly jets, and wave patterns during boreal winter, J. Geophys. Res., 127, e2022JD036691, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036691, 2022.
Labitzke, K.: On the interannual variability of the middle stratosphere during the northern winters, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 80, 963–971, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.60.1_124, 1982.
Lee, H.-T. and NOAA CDR Program: NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of Monthly Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), Version 2.7, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information [data set], https://doi.org/10.7289/V5W37TKD, 2018.
Liebmann, B. and Smith, C. A.: Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 1275–1277, 1996 (data available at: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/climate-data-records/outgoing-longwave-radiation-monthly, last access: 6 November 2023).
Liess, S. and Geller, M. A.: On the relationship between QBO and distribution of tropical deep convection, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D03108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016317, 2012.
Lindzen, R. S. and Holton, J. R.: A theory of the quasi-biennial oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 25, 1095–1107, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1968)025<1095:ATOTQB>2.0.CO;2, 1968.
Lott, F., Denvil, S., Butchart, N., Cagnazzo, C., Giorgetta, M. A., Hardiman, S. C., Manzini, E., Krismer, T., Duvel, J.-P., Maury, P., Scinocca, J. F., Watanabe, S., and Yukimoto, S.: Kelvin and Rossby-gravity wave packets in the lower stratosphere of some high-top CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 2156–2173, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020797, 2014.
Maruyama, T. and Tsuneoka, Y.: Anomalously short duration of the QBO at 50 hPa of the easterly wind phase in 1987 and its relationship to an El Niño event, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 66, 629–634, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.66.4_629, 1988.
Miller, R. L., Schmidt, G. A., Nazarenko, L. S., Bauer, S. E., Kelley, M., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L., Ackerman, A. S., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Cesana, G., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Cook, B. I., Cruz, C. A., Del Genio, A. D., Elsaesser, G. S., Faluvegi, G., Kiang, N. Y., Kim, D., Lacis, A. A., Leboissetier, A., LeGrande, A. N., Lo, K. K., Marshall, J., Matthews, E. E., McDermid, S., Mezuman, K., Murray, L. T., Oinas, V., Orbe, C., Pérez García-Pando, C., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M. J., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Tausnev, N., Tsigaridis, K., Tselioudis, G., Weng, E., Wu, J., and Yao, M. S.: CMIP6 Historical Simulations (1850–2014) With GISS-E2.1, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 13, e2019MS002034, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002034, 2021.
Moser, B. K. and Stevens, G. R.: Homogeneity of variance in the two-sample means test, Am. Stat., 46, 19–21, https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.1992.10475839, 1992.
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA/GISS): NASA-GISS GISS-E2-2-G model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2081, 2019.
Naujokat, B.: An update of the observed quasi–biennial oscillation of the stratospheric winds over the tropics, J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 1873–1877, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<1873:AUOTOQ>2.0.CO;2, 1986 (data available at: https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/index.html, last access: 6 November 2023).
Nazarenko, L. S., Tausnev, N., Russell, G. L., Rind, D., Miller, R. L., Schmidt, G. A., Bauer, S. E., Kelley, M., Ruedy, R., Ackerman, A. S., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Cesana, G., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Cook, B. I., Cruz, C. A., Del Genio, A. D., Elsaesser, G. S., Faluvegi, G., Kiang, N. Y., Kim, D., Lacis, A. A., Leboissetier, A., LeGrande, A. N., Lo, K. K., Marshall, J., Matthews, E. E., McDermid, S., Mezuman, K., Murray, L. T., Oinas, V., Orbe, C., Pérez García-Pando, C., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M. J., Romanou, A., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Tsigaridis, K., Tselioudis, G., Weng, E., Wu, J., and Yao, M.-S.: Future Climate Change Under SSP Emission Scenarios With GISS-E2.1, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 14, e2021MS002871, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002871, 2022.
Oort, A. H. and Yienger, J. J.: Observed interannual variability in the Hadley circulation and its connection to ENSO, J. Climate, 9, 2751–2767, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2751:Oivith>2.0.Co;2, 1996.
Orbe, C., Rind, D., Jonas, J., Nazarenko, L., Faluvegi, G., Murray, L.T., Shindell, D.T., Tsigaridis, K., Zhou, T., Kelley, M., and Schmidt, G.: GISS Model E2.2: A climate model optimized for the middle atmosphere. Part 2: Validation of large-scale transport and evaluation of climate response, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2020JD033151, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033151, 2020.
Philander, S. G. H.: El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, Academic Press, San Diego, 293 pp., ISBN 0-12-553235-0, 1990.
Plumb, R. A.: The interaction of two internal waves with the mean flow: Implications for the theory of the quasi-biennial oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 34, 1847–1858, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1977)034<1847:TIOTIW>2.0.CO;2, 1977.
Rao, J., Garfinkel, C. I., and White, I. P.: Impact of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Northern Winter Stratospheric Polar Vortex in CMIP5/6 Models, J. Climate, 33, 4787–4813, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0663.1, 2020a.
Rao, J., Garfinkel, C. I., and White, I. P.: Projected strengthening of the extratropical surface impacts of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL089149, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089149, 2020b.
Rao, J., Garfinkel, C. I., White, I. P., and Schwartz, C.: How does the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation affect the boreal winter tropospheric circulation in CMIP5/6 models?, J. Climate, 33, 8975–8996, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0024.1, 2020c.
Rao, J., Garfinkel, C. I., and White, I. P.: Development of the Extratropical Response to the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, J. Climate, 34, 7239–7255, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0960.1 2021.
Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003.
Richter, J. H., Solomon, A., and Bacmeister, J. T.: On the simulation of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 3045–3062, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021122, 2014.
Richter, J. H., Anstey, J. A., Butchart, N., Kawatani, Y., Meehl, G. A., Osprey, S., and Simpson, I. R.: Progress in simulating the quasi-biennial oscillation in CMIP models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD032362, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032362, 2020.
Rind, D., Suozzo, R., Balachandran, N. K., Lacis, A., and Russell, G.: The GISS global climate-middle atmosphere model. Part I: Model structure and climatology, J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 329–370, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<0329:TGGCMA>2.0.CO;2, 1988.
Rind, D., Lerner, J., Jonas, J., and McLinden, C.: Effects of resolution and model physics on tracer transports in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation models, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D09315, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007476, 2007.
Rind, D., Jonas, J., Balachandran, N., Schmidt, G., and Lean, J.: The QBO in two GISS global climate models: 1. Generation of the QBO, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 8798–8824, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021678, 2014.
Rind, D., Orbe, C., Jonas, J., Nazarenko, L., Zhou, T., Kelley, M., Lacis, A., Shindell, D., Faluvegi, Russell, G., Bauer, M., Schmidt, G., Romanou, A., and Tausnev, N.: GISS Model E2.2: A climate model optimized for the middle atmosphere – Model structure, climatology, variability and climate sensitivity, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD032204, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032204, 2020.
Salby, M. L.: Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate, Cambridge University Press, New York, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139005265, 2012.
Salby, M. L. and Garcia, R. R.: Transient response to localized episodic heating in the tropics, Part 1: excitation and short-time near-field behavior, J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 458–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<0458:TRTLEH>2.0.CO;2, 1987.
Sarachik, E. S. and Cane, M. A.: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phenomenon, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 364 pp., ISBN 978-0-521-84786-5, 2010.
Scaife, A. A., Butchart, N., Warner, C. D., Stainforth, D., Norton, W., and Austin, J.: Realistic quasi-biennial oscillations in a simulation of the global climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 3481–3484, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL011625, 2000.
Schirber, S.: Influence of ENSO on the QBO: Results from an ensemble of idealized simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 1109–1122, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022460, 2015.
Schmidt, G. A., Kelley, M., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S. E., Bhat, M. K., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Chen, Y.-H., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Del Genio, A., de Fainchtein, R., Faluvegi, G., Hansen, J. E., Healy, R. J., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Lacis, A. A., LeGrande, A. N., Lerner, J., Lo, K. K., Matthews, E. E., Menon, S., Miller, R. L., Oinas, V., Oloso, A. O., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M. J., Putman, W. M., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Sato, M., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Syed, R. A., Tausnev, N., Tsigaridis, K., Unger, N., Voulgarakis, A., Yao, M.-S., and Zhang, J.: Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, 141–184, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013MS000265, 2014.
Scott, R. K. and Haynes, P. H.: Internal interannual variability of the extratropical stratospheric circulation: The low-latitude flywheel, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124, 2149–2173, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712455016, 1998.
Serva, F., Cagnazzo, C., Christiansen, B., and Yang, S.: The influence of ENSO events on the stratospheric QBO in a multi-model ensemble, Clim. Dynam., 54, 2561–2575, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05131-7, 2020.
Simpson, I. R., Shepherd, T. G., and Sigmond, M.: Dynamics of the lower stratospheric circulation response to ENSO, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2537–2556, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-05.1, 2011.
Sullivan, S. C., Schiro, K. A., Stubenrauch, C., and Gentine, P.: The response of tropical organized convection to El Niño warming, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 8481–8500, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031026, 2019.
Taguchi, M.: Observed connection of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation with El Niño–Southern Oscillation in radiosonde data, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D18120, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014325, 2010.
Trepte, C. R. and Hitchman, M. H.: Tropical stratospheric circulation deduced from satellite aerosol data, Nature, 355, 626–628, https://doi.org/10.1038/355626a0, 1992.
Tsuda, T., Ratnam, M. V., Alexander, S. P., Kozu, T., and Takayabu, Y.: Temporal and spatial distributions of atmospheric wave energy in the equatorial stratosphere revealed by GPS radio occultation temperature data obtained with the CHAMP Satellite during 2001–2006, Earth Planets Space, 61, 525–533, https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03353169, 2009.
Wallace, J., Panetta, R., and Estberg, J.: Representation of the equatorial stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation in EOF phase space, J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 1751–1762, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<1751:ROTESQ>2.0.CO;2, 1993.
Watanabe, S., Kawatani, Y., Tomikawa, Y., Miyazaki, K., Takahashi, M., and Sato, K.: General aspects of a T213L256 middle atmosphere general circulation model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D12110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010026, 2008.
Wang, C., Deser, C., Yu, J.-Y., DiNezio, P., and Clement, A.: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO): A review, in: Coral Reefs of the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Coral Reefs of the World, edited by: Glynn, P., Manzello, D., and Enochs, I., Springer, Dordrecht, 8, 85–106, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-7499-4_4, 2017.
Xu, J.-S.: On the relationship between the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation and the tropospheric southern oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 725–734, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1992)049<0725:OTRBTS>2.0.CO;2, 1992.
Yoden, S., Kumar, V., Dhaka, S., and Hitchman, M.: Global monsoon systems and their modulation by the equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, MAUSAM, 74, 239–252, https://doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v74i2.5948, 2023.
Yoo, C. and Son, S.-W.: Modulation of the boreal wintertime Madden-Julian oscillation by the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 1392–1398, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067762, 2016.
Yu, J.-Y. and Mechoso, C. R.: A coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM study of the ENSO, J. Climate, 14, 2329–2350, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2329:ACAOGS>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Yuan, W., Geller, M. A., and Love, P. T.: ENSO influence on QBO modulations of the tropical tropopause, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 140, 1670–1676, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2247, 2014.
Zawodny, J. M. and McCormick, M. P.: Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II measurements of the quasi-biennial oscillations in ozone and nitrogen dioxide, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 9371–9377, https://doi.org/10.1029/91JD00517, 1991.
Zhao, Y. and Sun, D.-Z.: ENSO asymmetry in CMIP6 models, J. Climate, 35, 5555–5572, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0835.1, 2022.
Zhang, C.: Large-scale variability of atmospheric deep convection in relation to sea surface temperature in the tropics, J. Climate, 6, 1898–1913, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1898:LSVOAD>2.0.CO;2, 1993.
Zhou, T.: Exploring the ENSO Modulation of the QBO Periods with GISS E2.2 Models, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8360291, 2023.
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tends to speed up and slow down the phase speed of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) during El Niño and La Niña, respectively. The ENSO modulation of the QBO does not show up in the climate models with parameterized but temporally constant gravity wave sources. We show that the GISS E2.2 models can capture the observed ENSO modulation of the QBO period with a horizontal resolution of 2° by 2.5° and its gravity wave sources parameterized interactively.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tends to speed up and slow down the phase speed of the...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint