Articles | Volume 24, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Oct 2024
Research article |
| 09 Oct 2024
| 09 Oct 2024
Present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes surface warming relative to preindustrial conditions
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA, USA
Xueying Zhao
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA, USA
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Department of Earth and Planetary Science, the University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
Cynthia A. Randles
ExxonMobil Technology and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ, USA
now at: UNEP International Methane Emission Observatory, Paris, France
Ryan J. Kramer
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Bjørn H. Samset
CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Christopher J. Smith
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
Related authors
Duncan Watson-Parris, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Geeta Persad, Massimo A. Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Carley E. Iles, Manoj Joshi, Marianne T. Lund, Daniel McCoy, Daniel M. Westervelt, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4443–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In 2020, regulations by the International Maritime Organization aimed to reduce aerosol emissions from ships. These aerosols previously had a cooling effect, which the regulations might reduce, revealing more greenhouse gas warming. Here we find that, while there is regional warming, the global 2020–2040 temperature rise is only +0.03 °C. This small change is difficult to distinguish from natural climate variability, indicating the regulations have had a limited effect on observed warming to date.
Robert James Allen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-32, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
CMIP6 models are analyzed to quantify the biogeophysical (non-carbon cycle) and biogeochemical (enhanced carbon storage) effects of carbon fertilization at the time of CO2 quadrupling. The biogeophysical effects lead to relatively weak warming (0.16 ± 0.09 K ) largely due to decreases in surface latent heat flux associated with reduced canopy transpiration. Biogeochemical cooling associated with enhanced land carbon storage dominates at -1.38 K (-1.92 to -0.84 K).
Feifei Luo, Bjørn Samset, Camilla Stjern, Manoj Joshi, Laura Wilcox, Robert Allen, Wei Hua, and Shuanglin Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3867, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3867, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Black carbon (BC) aerosol is emitted from the incomplete combustion of biomass and fossil fuels. We found that Asian BC lead to a strong local cooling and drying. Reductions in precipitation primarily depend on the thermodynamic effects due to solar radiation absorption by BC. The combined thermodynamic and Dynamic effects shape the spatial pattern of precipitation responses to Asian BC. These results help further understand the impact of emissions of anthropogenic aerosols on Asian climate.
Paul T. Griffiths, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Michael J. Prather, Alexander T. Archibald, Florence Brown, Makoto Deushi, William Collins, Stephanie Fiedler, Naga Oshima, Lee T. Murray, Christopher J. Smith, Steven T. Turnock, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Paul J. Young
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2528, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) aimed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. In this paper, we review its contribution to AR6, and the wider understanding of the role of these species in climate and climate change. We identify remaining challenges concluding with recommendations aimed to improve the utility and uptake of climate model data to address the role of short-lived climate forcers in the Earth system.
Alkiviadis Kalisoras, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Dimitris Akritidis, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Chaincy Kuo, Sophie Szopa, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, David Neubauer, Naga Oshima, Jane Mulcahy, Larry W. Horowitz, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7837–7872, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a metric for estimating how human activities and natural agents change the energy flow into and out of the Earth’s climate system. We investigate the anthropogenic aerosol ERF, and we estimate the contribution of individual processes to the total ERF using simulations from Earth system models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our findings highlight that aerosol–cloud interactions drive ERF variability during the last 150 years.
James L. Gomez, Robert J. Allen, and King-Fai Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6937–6963, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires in California (CA) have grown very large during the past 20 years. These fires emit sunlight-absorbing aerosols. Analyzing observational data, our study finds that aerosols emitted from large fires in northern CA spread throughout CA and Nevada and heat the atmosphere. This heating is consistent with larger-than-normal temperatures and dry conditions. Further study is needed to determine how much the aerosols heat the atmosphere and whether they are drying the atmosphere as well.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Massimo A. Bollasina, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Marianne T. Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O'Donnell, David J. Paynter, Geeta G. Persad, Steven T. Rumbold, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sabine Undorf, and Daniel M. Westervelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4451–4479, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional climate change. However, the size of these regional impacts and the way they arise are still uncertain. With large changes in aerosol emissions a possibility over the next few decades, it is important to better quantify the potential role of aerosol in future regional climate change. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project will deliver experiments designed to facilitate this.
Taufiq Hassan, Robert J. Allen, Wei Liu, and Cynthia A. Randles
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5821–5846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5821-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5821-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
State-of-the-art climate models yield robust, externally forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the bulk of which are due to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations to net surface shortwave radiation and sea surface temperature. AMOC-related feedbacks act to reinforce this aerosol-forced response, largely due to changes in sea surface salinity (and hence sea surface density), with temperature- and cloud-related feedbacks acting to mute the initial response.
Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A first assessment is made of the historical and future changes in air pollutants from models participating in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Substantial benefits to future air quality can be achieved in future scenarios that implement measures to mitigate climate and involve reductions in air pollutant emissions, particularly methane. However, important differences are shown between models in the future regional projection of air pollutants under the same scenario.
Robert J. Allen, Steven Turnock, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Ulrike Lohmann, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Martine Michou, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Toshihiko Takemura, Michael Schulz, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Louisa Emmons, Larry Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Prodromos Zanis, Ina Tegen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Philippe Le Sager, Peter Good, Sungbo Shim, Fiona O'Connor, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Makoto Deushi, Lori T. Sentman, Jasmin G. John, Shinichiro Fujimori, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9641–9663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, 2020
Prodromos Zanis, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Robert J. Allen, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Jason Cole, Ben Johnson, Makoto Deushi, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Adriana Sima, Michael Schulz, Toshihiko Takemura, and Konstantinos Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8381–8404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014.
Anahita Amiri-Farahani, Robert J. Allen, David Neubauer, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6305–6322, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6305-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6305-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We use observations from 2004 to 2012 to obtain estimates of the aerosol–cloud radiative effect, including its uncertainty, for dust aerosol influencing Atlantic marine stratocumulus clouds (MSc) off the coast of north Africa. Saharan dust modifies MSc in a way that acts to cool the planet. There is a strong seasonal variation, with the aerosol–cloud radiative effect switching from significantly negative during the boreal summer to weakly positive during boreal winter.
Masatomo Fujiwara, Bomin Sun, Anthony Reale, Domenico Cimini, Salvatore Larosa, Lori Borg, Christoph von Rohden, Michael Sommer, Ruud Dirksen, Marion Maturilli, Holger Vömel, Rigel Kivi, Bruce Ingleby, Ryan J. Kramer, Belay Demoz, Fabio Madonna, Fabien Carminati, Owen Lewis, Brett Candy, Christopher Thomas, David Edwards, Noersomadi, Kensaku Shimizu, and Peter Thorne
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 2919–2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-2919-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-2919-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assess and illustrate the benefits of high-altitude attainment of balloon-borne radiosonde soundings up to and beyond 10 hPa level from various aspects. We show that the extra costs and technical challenges involved in consistent attainment of high ascents are more than outweighed by the benefits for a broad variety of real-time and delayed-mode applications. Consistent attainment of high ascents should therefore be pursued across the balloon observational network.
Hannah Nesser, Kevin W. Bowman, Matthew D. Thill, Daniel J. Varon, Cynthia A. Randles, Ashutosh Tewari, Felipe J. Cardoso-Saldaña, Emily Reidy, Joannes D. Maasakkers, and Daniel J. Jacob
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2850, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Regional analyses of atmospheric trace gases can improve knowledge of fluxes and their trends at high resolution but rely on the specification of boundary conditions at the domain edges. Biases in the often-uncertain boundary conditions propagate to the inferred fluxes. We develop a framework to explain how errors in the boundary conditions influence the optimized fluxes, derive two metrics to estimate this influence, and compare two methods to correct for the biases.
Lennart Ramme, Benjamin Blanz, Christopher Wells, Tony E. Wong, William Schoenberg, Chris Smith, and Chao Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1875, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We present FRISIA version 1.0, a model to represent the impacts of future sea level rise (SLR) in integrated assessment models (IAMs). FRISIA can reproduce the impacts calculated by a more detailed spatially resolved model. Furthermore, the inclusion of previously uncaptured coastal feedback in FRISIA leads to emerging new behaviour. Our model improves the represenation of SLR impacts in IAMs, contributing to better projections of the world's socio-economic evolution under climate change.
William Schoenberg, Benjamin Blanz, Jefferson K. Rajah, Beniamino Callegari, Christopher Wells, Jannes Breier, Martin B. Grimeland, Andreas Nicolaidis Lindqvist, Lennart Ramme, Chris Smith, Chao Li, Sarah Mashhadi, Adakudlu Muralidhar, and Cecilie Mauritzen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2599, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2599, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
The current crop of models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to produce their assessment reports lack endogenous process-based representations of climate-driven changes to human activities, limiting understanding of the feedback between climate and humans. FRIDA v2.1 integrates these systems and generate results that suggest standard scenarios may overestimate economic growth, highlighting the importance of feedbacks for realistic projections and informed policymaking.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Lara Aleluia Reis, Robbie M. Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Jiddu A. Broersma, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Catia M. Domingues, Marco Gambarini, Thomas Gasser, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Aurélien Liné, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Jan C. Minx, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2641–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets to track real-world changes over time. To make our work relevant to policymakers, we follow methods from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the IPCC assessment.
Tyler P. Janoski, Ivan Mitevski, Ryan J. Kramer, Michael Previdi, and Lorenzo M. Polvani
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3065–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed ClimKern, a Python package and radiative kernel repository, to simplify calculating radiative feedbacks and make climate sensitivity studies more reproducible. Testing of ClimKern with sample climate model data reveals that radiative kernel choice may be more important than previously thought, especially in polar regions. Our work highlights the need for kernel sensitivity analyses to be included in future studies.
William Lamb, Robbie Andrew, Matthew Jones, Zebedee Nicholls, Glen Peters, Chris Smith, Marielle Saunois, Giacomo Grassi, Julia Pongratz, Steven Smith, Francesco Tubiello, Monica Crippa, Matthew Gidden, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jan Minx, and Piers Forster
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-188, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores why global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates vary. Key reasons include different coverage of gases and sectors, varying definitions of anthropogenic land use change emissions, and the Paris Agreement not covering all emission sources. The study highlights three main ways emissions data is reported, each with different objectives and resulting in varying global emission totals. It emphasizes the need for transparency in choosing datasets and setting assessment scopes.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Geeta Persad, Massimo A. Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Carley E. Iles, Manoj Joshi, Marianne T. Lund, Daniel McCoy, Daniel M. Westervelt, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4443–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In 2020, regulations by the International Maritime Organization aimed to reduce aerosol emissions from ships. These aerosols previously had a cooling effect, which the regulations might reduce, revealing more greenhouse gas warming. Here we find that, while there is regional warming, the global 2020–2040 temperature rise is only +0.03 °C. This small change is difficult to distinguish from natural climate variability, indicating the regulations have had a limited effect on observed warming to date.
Robert James Allen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-32, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
CMIP6 models are analyzed to quantify the biogeophysical (non-carbon cycle) and biogeochemical (enhanced carbon storage) effects of carbon fertilization at the time of CO2 quadrupling. The biogeophysical effects lead to relatively weak warming (0.16 ± 0.09 K ) largely due to decreases in surface latent heat flux associated with reduced canopy transpiration. Biogeochemical cooling associated with enhanced land carbon storage dominates at -1.38 K (-1.92 to -0.84 K).
Joe Adabouk Amooli, Marianne T. Lund, Sourangsu Chowdhury, Gunnar Myhre, Ane N. Johansen, Bjørn H. Samset, and Daniel M. Westervelt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-948, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze various projections of African aerosol emissions and their potential impacts on climate and public health. We find that future emissions vary widely across emission projections, with differences in sectoral emission distributions. Using the Oslo chemical transport model, we show that air pollution exposure in some regions of Africa could increase significantly by 2050, increasing pollution-related deaths, with most scenarios projecting aerosol-induced warming over sub-Saharan Africa.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Feifei Luo, Bjørn Samset, Camilla Stjern, Manoj Joshi, Laura Wilcox, Robert Allen, Wei Hua, and Shuanglin Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3867, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3867, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Black carbon (BC) aerosol is emitted from the incomplete combustion of biomass and fossil fuels. We found that Asian BC lead to a strong local cooling and drying. Reductions in precipitation primarily depend on the thermodynamic effects due to solar radiation absorption by BC. The combined thermodynamic and Dynamic effects shape the spatial pattern of precipitation responses to Asian BC. These results help further understand the impact of emissions of anthropogenic aerosols on Asian climate.
Kalle Nordling, Nora L. S. Fahrenbach, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1659–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
People experience daily weather, not changes in monthly averages. We investigate the likelihood of events, which occurred once every 10 years in the pre-industrial era. We analyze how summertime precipitation and daily maximum temperature events evolve. Our focus is on understanding the role of day-to-day variability in the change in the number of extreme weather days. We find that in most regions, a change in variability is the primary driver for change in summertime extreme precipitation.
Detlef van Vuuren, Brian O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin Sanderson, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew Jones, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camila Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Luciana Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven Rose, Alexander Ruane, Carl-Friederich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a set of six plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
Magali Verkerk, Thomas J. Aubry, Christopher Smith, Peter O. Hopcroft, Michael Sigl, Jessica E. Tierney, Kevin Anchukaitis, Matthew Osman, Anja Schmidt, and Matthew Toohey
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3635, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3635, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions can trigger global cooling, affecting human societies. Using ice-core records and simple climate model to simulate volcanic effect over the last 8500 years, we show that volcanic eruptions cool climate by 0.12 °C on average. By comparing model results with temperature recorded by tree rings over the last 1000 years, we demonstrate that our models can predict the large-scale cooling caused by volcanic eruptions, and can be used in case of large eruption in the future.
Chris Smith, Donald P. Cummins, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Zebedee Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Myles Allen, Stuart Jenkins, Nicholas Leach, Camilla Mathison, and Antti-Ilari Partanen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8569–8592, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate projections are only useful if the underlying models that produce them are well calibrated and can reproduce observed climate change. We formalise a software package that calibrates the open-source FaIR simple climate model to full-complexity Earth system models. Observations, including historical warming, and assessments of key climate variables such as that of climate sensitivity are used to constrain the model output.
Tuomas Naakka, Daniel Köhler, Kalle Nordling, Petri Räisänen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Bjørn H. Samset, Victoria A. Sinclair, Jennie L. Thomas, and Annica L. M. Ekman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3458, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The effects on polar climates of warmer sea surface temperatures and decreasing sea ice cover have been studied using four climate models with identical prescribed changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover. The models predict similar changes in air temperature and precipitation in the polar regions in a warmer climate with less sea ice. However, the models disagree on how the atmospheric circulation, i.e. the large-scale winds, will change with warmer temperatures and less sea ice.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Benjamin Mark Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew Macdougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Seferian, Lori Sentman, Isla Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman Steinert, Abigail Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated zero emissions commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
Catherine Anne Toolan, Joe Adabouk Amooli, Laura J. Wilcox, Bjørn H. Samset, Andrew G. Turner, and Daniel M. Westervelt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3057, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explores how well air pollution and rainfall patterns in Africa are represented in current climate models, by comparing model data to observations from 1981 to 2023. While most models capture seasonal air quality changes well, they struggle to replicate the distribution of non-dust pollutants and certain rainfall patterns, especially over east Africa. Improving these models is crucial for better climate predictions and preparing for future risks.
Marit Sandstad, Borgar Aamaas, Ane Nordlie Johansen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Glen Philip Peters, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Benjamin Mark Sanderson, and Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6589–6625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The CICERO-SCM has existed as a Fortran model since 1999 that calculates the radiative forcing and concentrations from emissions and is an upwelling diffusion energy balance model of the ocean that calculates temperature change. In this paper, we describe an updated version ported to Python and publicly available at https://github.com/ciceroOslo/ciceroscm (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10548720). This version contains functionality for parallel runs and automatic calibration.
Paul T. Griffiths, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Michael J. Prather, Alexander T. Archibald, Florence Brown, Makoto Deushi, William Collins, Stephanie Fiedler, Naga Oshima, Lee T. Murray, Christopher J. Smith, Steven T. Turnock, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Paul J. Young
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2528, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) aimed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. In this paper, we review its contribution to AR6, and the wider understanding of the role of these species in climate and climate change. We identify remaining challenges concluding with recommendations aimed to improve the utility and uptake of climate model data to address the role of short-lived climate forcers in the Earth system.
Chanyoung Park, Brian J. Soden, Ryan J. Kramer, Tristan S. L’Ecuyer, and Haozhe He
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2547, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2547, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study addresses the challenge of quantifying the impact of aerosol-cloud interactions. By analyzing satellite data and reanalysis, we examine cloud responses to aerosols by incorporating aerosol-to-cloud droplet activation rates. Our "perfect-model" validation reveals a smaller, less uncertain impact of aerosol-cloud interactions than previously estimated. This breakthrough suggests a reduced role of aerosol-cloud interactions in determining climate sensitivity.
Alkiviadis Kalisoras, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Dimitris Akritidis, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Chaincy Kuo, Sophie Szopa, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, David Neubauer, Naga Oshima, Jane Mulcahy, Larry W. Horowitz, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7837–7872, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a metric for estimating how human activities and natural agents change the energy flow into and out of the Earth’s climate system. We investigate the anthropogenic aerosol ERF, and we estimate the contribution of individual processes to the total ERF using simulations from Earth system models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our findings highlight that aerosol–cloud interactions drive ERF variability during the last 150 years.
James L. Gomez, Robert J. Allen, and King-Fai Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6937–6963, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires in California (CA) have grown very large during the past 20 years. These fires emit sunlight-absorbing aerosols. Analyzing observational data, our study finds that aerosols emitted from large fires in northern CA spread throughout CA and Nevada and heat the atmosphere. This heating is consistent with larger-than-normal temperatures and dry conditions. Further study is needed to determine how much the aerosols heat the atmosphere and whether they are drying the atmosphere as well.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Alexander Reedy, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7461–7489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future sea-level rise projections exhibit multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be considered by scientific assessments intended to inform decision-making. The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) is a new software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. An early version of FACTS supported the development of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report sea-level projections.
Saroj Kumar Sahu, Poonam Mangaraj, Gufran Beig, Marianne T. Lund, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Pallavi Sahoo, and Ashirbad Mishra
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-310, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-310, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Elevated emission of particulate matter is not limited to urban areas, led to poor air quality across the country. Emission Inventory is the first line of defensive tools for air quality management and understanding and identification of the source of pollutants. The present work is an attempt to develop a high-resolution (~10 km) national inventory of particulate pollutants in India for 2020 using IPCC methodology. The developed dataset is vital piece of information for mitigation strategies.
Olivia Linke, Johannes Quaas, Finja Baumer, Sebastian Becker, Jan Chylik, Sandro Dahlke, André Ehrlich, Dörthe Handorf, Christoph Jacobi, Heike Kalesse-Los, Luca Lelli, Sina Mehrdad, Roel A. J. Neggers, Johannes Riebold, Pablo Saavedra Garfias, Niklas Schnierstein, Matthew D. Shupe, Chris Smith, Gunnar Spreen, Baptiste Verneuil, Kameswara S. Vinjamuri, Marco Vountas, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9963–9992, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lapse rate feedback (LRF) is a major driver of the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. It arises because the warming is stronger at the surface than aloft. Several processes can affect the LRF in the Arctic, such as the omnipresent temperature inversion. Here, we compare multimodel climate simulations to Arctic-based observations from a large research consortium to broaden our understanding of these processes, find synergy among them, and constrain the Arctic LRF and AA.
Mark D. Zelinka, Christopher J. Smith, Yi Qin, and Karl E. Taylor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8879–8898, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8879-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8879-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The primary uncertainty in how strongly Earth's climate has been perturbed by human activities comes from the unknown radiative impact of aerosol changes. Accurately quantifying these forcings – and their sub-components – in climate models is crucial for understanding the past and future simulated climate. In this study we describe biases in previously published estimates of aerosol radiative forcing in climate models and provide corrected estimates along with code for users to compute them.
Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Massimo A. Bollasina, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Marianne T. Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O'Donnell, David J. Paynter, Geeta G. Persad, Steven T. Rumbold, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sabine Undorf, and Daniel M. Westervelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4451–4479, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional climate change. However, the size of these regional impacts and the way they arise are still uncertain. With large changes in aerosol emissions a possibility over the next few decades, it is important to better quantify the potential role of aerosol in future regional climate change. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project will deliver experiments designed to facilitate this.
Marianne Tronstad Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, and Zbigniew Klimont
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6647–6662, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6647-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show that differences, in magnitude and trend, between recent global anthropogenic emission inventories have a notable influence on simulated regional abundances of anthropogenic aerosol over the 1990–2019 period. This, in turn, affects estimates of radiative forcing. Our findings form a basis for comparing existing and upcoming studies on anthropogenic aerosols using different emission inventories.
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Jarmo S. Kikstra, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Christopher J. Smith, Jared Lewis, Robin D. Lamboll, Edward Byers, Marit Sandstad, Malte Meinshausen, Matthew J. Gidden, Joeri Rogelj, Elmar Kriegler, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura Wienpahl, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Piers M. Forster, Andy Reisinger, Roberto Schaeffer, and Keywan Riahi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9075–9109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing hundreds or thousands of emission scenarios in terms of their global mean temperature implications requires standardised procedures of infilling, harmonisation, and probabilistic temperature assessments. We here present the open-source
climate-assessmentworkflow that was used in the IPCC AR6 Working Group III report. The paper provides key insight for anyone wishing to understand the assessment of climate outcomes of mitigation pathways in the context of the Paris Agreement.
Johannes Quaas, Hailing Jia, Chris Smith, Anna Lea Albright, Wenche Aas, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Daniel Grosvenor, Stuart Jenkins, Zbigniew Klimont, Norman G. Loeb, Xiaoyan Ma, Vaishali Naik, Fabien Paulot, Philip Stier, Martin Wild, Gunnar Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12221–12239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Pollution particles cool climate and offset part of the global warming. However, they are washed out by rain and thus their effect responds quickly to changes in emissions. We show multiple datasets to demonstrate that aerosol emissions and their concentrations declined in many regions influenced by human emissions, as did the effects on clouds. Consequently, the cooling impact on the Earth energy budget became smaller. This change in trend implies a relative warming.
Daniel J. Varon, Daniel J. Jacob, Melissa Sulprizio, Lucas A. Estrada, William B. Downs, Lu Shen, Sarah E. Hancock, Hannah Nesser, Zhen Qu, Elise Penn, Zichong Chen, Xiao Lu, Alba Lorente, Ashutosh Tewari, and Cynthia A. Randles
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5787–5805, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5787-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5787-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Reducing atmospheric methane emissions is critical to slow near-term climate change. Globally surveying satellite instruments like the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) have unique capabilities for monitoring atmospheric methane around the world. Here we present a user-friendly cloud-computing tool that enables researchers and stakeholders to quantify methane emissions across user-selected regions of interest using TROPOMI satellite observations.
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Jonas Gliß, Susanne E. Bauer, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Paul Ginoux, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Philippe Le Sager, Marianne T. Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Twan van Noije, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Samuel Remy, Michael Schulz, Philip Stier, Camilla W. Stjern, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana G. Tsyro, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15929–15947, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15929-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Absorption of shortwave radiation by aerosols can modify precipitation and clouds but is poorly constrained in models. A total of 15 different aerosol models from AeroCom phase III have reported total aerosol absorption, and for the first time, 11 of these models have reported in a consistent experiment the contributions to absorption from black carbon, dust, and organic aerosol. Here, we document the model diversity in aerosol absorption.
Kalle Nordling, Hannele Korhonen, Jouni Räisänen, Antti-Ilari Partanen, Bjørn H. Samset, and Joonas Merikanto
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14941–14958, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14941-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14941-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the temperature responses to different climate forcing agents, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, is crucial for understanding future regional climate changes. In climate models, the regional temperature responses vary for all forcing agents, but the causes of this variability are poorly understood. For all forcing agents, the main component contributing to variance in regional surface temperature responses between the climate models is the clear-sky longwave emissivity.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Yuqiang Zhang, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gunnar Myhre, Gregory Faluvegi, Bjørn H. Samset, Timothy Andrews, Dirk Olivié, Toshihiko Takemura, and Xuhui Lee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13797–13809, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13797-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13797-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies showed that black carbon (BC) could warm the surface with decreased incoming radiation. With climate models, we found that the surface energy redistribution plays a more crucial role in surface temperature compared with other forcing agents. Though BC could reduce the surface heating, the energy dissipates less efficiently, which is manifested by reduced convective and evaporative cooling, thereby warming the surface.
Robin D. Lamboll, Chris D. Jones, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Stephanie Fiedler, Bjørn H. Samset, Nathan P. Gillett, Joeri Rogelj, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3683–3695, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Lockdowns to avoid the spread of COVID-19 have created an unprecedented reduction in human emissions. We can estimate the changes in emissions at a country level, but to make predictions about how this will affect our climate, we need more precise information about where the emissions happen. Here we combine older estimates of where emissions normally occur with very recent estimates of sector activity levels to enable different groups to make simulations of the climatic effects of lockdown.
Nicholas J. Leach, Stuart Jenkins, Zebedee Nicholls, Christopher J. Smith, John Lynch, Michelle Cain, Tristram Walsh, Bill Wu, Junichi Tsutsui, and Myles R. Allen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3007–3036, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3007-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3007-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents an update of the FaIR simple climate model, which can estimate the impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions on the global climate. This update aims to significantly increase the structural simplicity of the model, making it more understandable and transparent. This simplicity allows it to be implemented in a wide range of environments, including Excel. We suggest that it could be used widely in academia, corporate research, and education.
Taufiq Hassan, Robert J. Allen, Wei Liu, and Cynthia A. Randles
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5821–5846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5821-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5821-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
State-of-the-art climate models yield robust, externally forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the bulk of which are due to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations to net surface shortwave radiation and sea surface temperature. AMOC-related feedbacks act to reinforce this aerosol-forced response, largely due to changes in sea surface salinity (and hence sea surface density), with temperature- and cloud-related feedbacks acting to mute the initial response.
Gillian Thornhill, William Collins, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alex Archibald, Susanne Bauer, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Stephanie Fiedler, Gerd Folberth, Ada Gjermundsen, Larry Horowitz, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Fabien Paulot, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Roland Séférian, Chris Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and James Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1105–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We find that increased temperatures affect aerosols and reactive gases by changing natural emissions and their rates of removal from the atmosphere. Changing the composition of these species in the atmosphere affects the radiative budget of the climate system and therefore amplifies or dampens the climate response of climate models of the Earth system. This study found that the largest effect is a dampening of climate change as warmer temperatures increase the emissions of cooling aerosols.
Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Piers M. Forster, Larry W. Horowitz, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Jane P. Mulcahy, Gunnar Myhre, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Christopher J. Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Tongwen Wu, Guang Zeng, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a study of how different constituents in the atmosphere, such as aerosols and gases like methane and ozone, affect the energy balance in the atmosphere. Different climate models were run using the same inputs to allow an easy comparison of the results and to understand where the models differ. We found the effect of aerosols is to reduce warming in the atmosphere, but this effect varies between models. Reactions between gases are also important in affecting climate.
Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A first assessment is made of the historical and future changes in air pollutants from models participating in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Substantial benefits to future air quality can be achieved in future scenarios that implement measures to mitigate climate and involve reductions in air pollutant emissions, particularly methane. However, important differences are shown between models in the future regional projection of air pollutants under the same scenario.
Camilla W. Stjern, Bjørn H. Samset, Olivier Boucher, Trond Iversen, Jean-François Lamarque, Gunnar Myhre, Drew Shindell, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13467–13480, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13467-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13467-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The span between the warmest and coldest temperatures over a day is a climate parameter that influences both agriculture and human health. Using data from 10 models, we show how individual climate drivers such as greenhouse gases and aerosols produce distinctly different responses in this parameter in high-emission regions. Given the high uncertainty in future aerosol emissions, this improved understanding of the temperature responses may ultimately help these regions prepare for future changes.
Marianne T. Lund, Borgar Aamaas, Camilla W. Stjern, Zbigniew Klimont, Terje K. Berntsen, and Bjørn H. Samset
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals requires both near-zero levels of long-lived greenhouse gases and deep cuts in emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs). Here we quantify the near- and long-term global temperature impacts of emissions of individual SLCFs and CO2 from 7 economic sectors in 13 regions in order to provide the detailed knowledge needed to design efficient mitigation strategies at the sectoral and regional levels.
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Jared Lewis, Robert Gieseke, Dietmar Dommenget, Kalyn Dorheim, Chen-Shuo Fan, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Thomas Gasser, Ulrich Golüke, Philip Goodwin, Corinne Hartin, Austin P. Hope, Elmar Kriegler, Nicholas J. Leach, Davide Marchegiani, Laura A. McBride, Yann Quilcaille, Joeri Rogelj, Ross J. Salawitch, Bjørn H. Samset, Marit Sandstad, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Christopher J. Smith, Steve Smith, Katsumasa Tanaka, Junichi Tsutsui, and Zhiang Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5175–5190, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Computational limits mean that we cannot run our most comprehensive climate models for all applications of interest. In such cases, reduced complexity models (RCMs) are used. Here, researchers working on 15 different models present the first systematic community effort to evaluate and compare RCMs: the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). Our research ensures that users of RCMs can more easily evaluate the strengths, weaknesses and limitations of their tools.
Laura J. Wilcox, Zhen Liu, Bjørn H. Samset, Ed Hawkins, Marianne T. Lund, Kalle Nordling, Sabine Undorf, Massimo Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Srinath Krishnan, Joonas Merikanto, and Andrew G. Turner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11955–11977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Projected changes in man-made aerosol range from large reductions to moderate increases in emissions until 2050. Rapid reductions between the present and the 2050s lead to enhanced increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation relative to scenarios with continued increases in aerosol. Relative magnitude and spatial distribution of aerosol changes are particularly important for South Asian summer monsoon precipitation changes, affecting the sign of the trend in the coming decades.
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, and Adriana Sima
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2157–2168, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2157-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2157-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Radiative kernels allow efficient diagnosis of climate feedbacks and radiative adjustments to an external forcing using standard climate model output. We present a radiative kernel derived from the UK Met Office's HadGEM3-GA7.1 climate model. We show that a highly resolved stratosphere is important for correctly diagnosing the stratospheric temperature adjustment to greenhouse gas forcings and, by extension, the instantaneous radiative forcing.
María A. Burgos, Elisabeth Andrews, Gloria Titos, Angela Benedetti, Huisheng Bian, Virginie Buchard, Gabriele Curci, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Anton Laakso, Julie Letertre-Danczak, Marianne T. Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Gunnar Myhre, Cynthia Randles, Michael Schulz, Twan van Noije, Kai Zhang, Lucas Alados-Arboledas, Urs Baltensperger, Anne Jefferson, James Sherman, Junying Sun, Ernest Weingartner, and Paul Zieger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10231–10258, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10231-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10231-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how well models represent the enhancement in scattering coefficients due to particle water uptake, and perform an evaluation of several implementation schemes used in ten Earth system models. Our results show the importance of the parameterization of hygroscopicity and model chemistry as drivers of some of the observed diversity amongst model estimates. The definition of dry conditions and the phenomena taking place in this relative humidity range also impact the model evaluation.
Robert J. Allen, Steven Turnock, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Ulrike Lohmann, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Martine Michou, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Toshihiko Takemura, Michael Schulz, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Louisa Emmons, Larry Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Prodromos Zanis, Ina Tegen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Philippe Le Sager, Peter Good, Sungbo Shim, Fiona O'Connor, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Makoto Deushi, Lori T. Sentman, Jasmin G. John, Shinichiro Fujimori, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9641–9663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, 2020
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO2 and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO2 it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.
Gunnar Myhre, Bjørn H. Samset, Christian W. Mohr, Kari Alterskjær, Yves Balkanski, Nicolas Bellouin, Mian Chin, James Haywood, Øivind Hodnebrog, Stefan Kinne, Guangxing Lin, Marianne T. Lund, Joyce E. Penner, Michael Schulz, Nick Schutgens, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, and Kai Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8855–8865, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8855-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8855-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The radiative forcing of the direct aerosol effects can be decomposed into clear-sky and cloudy-sky portions. In this study we use observational methods and two sets of multi-model global aerosol simulations over the industrial era to show that the contribution from cloudy-sky regions is likely weak.
Prodromos Zanis, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Robert J. Allen, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Jason Cole, Ben Johnson, Makoto Deushi, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Adriana Sima, Michael Schulz, Toshihiko Takemura, and Konstantinos Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8381–8404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Yuqiang Zhang, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gunnar Myhre, Camilla W. Stjern, Gregory Faluvegi, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8251–8266, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8251-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
By using climate simulations, we found that both CO2 and black carbon aerosols could reduce low-level cloud cover, which is mainly due to changes in relative humidity, cloud water, dynamics, and stability. Because the impact of cloud on solar radiation is in effect only during daytime, such cloud reduction could enhance solar heating, thereby raising the daily maximum temperature by 10–50 %, varying by region, which has great implications for extreme climate events and socioeconomic activity.
Nicolas Bellouin, Will Davies, Keith P. Shine, Johannes Quaas, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Lindsay Lee, Leighton Regayre, Guy Brasseur, Natalia Sudarchikova, Idir Bouarar, Olivier Boucher, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1649–1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Quantifying the imbalance in the Earth's energy budget caused by human activities is important to understand and predict climate changes. This study presents new estimates of the imbalance caused by changes in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, and particles of pollution. Over the period 2003–2017, the overall imbalance has been positive, indicating that the climate system has gained energy and will warm further.
Nicholas James Leach, Zebedee Nicholls, Stuart Jenkins, Christopher J. Smith, John Lynch, Michelle Cain, Bill Wu, Junichi Tsutsui, and Myles R. Allen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-379, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-379, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
GIR is a simple climate model designed to make exploration of the impact of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions on the climate easy and understandable for its users. It uses an intuitive input and output structure, and the model is itself a set of only six equations. This lends the model to applications such as teaching, or as a lowest common denominator model between groups in large-scale climate assessments. It could also be used to investigate more complex models through emulation.
Borgar Aamaas, Terje Koren Berntsen, and Bjørn Hallvard Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15235–15245, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Cutting short-lived pollutants can help keep cool the climate – but only if we are clever. We investigate how regional temperatures may change in response to different packages of air quality measures. One package consists of mitigation measures that mainly target emissions that are known to result in a cooler climate, while in the other, emissions are cut as much as technically possible in response to air quality concerns. We estimate the different contributions from various sectors and region.
Marianne T. Lund, Gunnar Myhre, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13827–13839, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13827-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13827-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric aerosols play an integral role in shaping local and global climate by modifying the energy balance, clouds and precipitation. They are also a leading cause of premature mortality in many areas. New scenarios provide projections of emissions until 2100 given strong, medium or weak air pollution control stringency. We quantify the consequent regional and global aerosol loading and radiative forcing, showing a large spread at the end of the century and regional differences in trends.
Daniel H. Cusworth, Daniel J. Jacob, Daniel J. Varon, Christopher Chan Miller, Xiong Liu, Kelly Chance, Andrew K. Thorpe, Riley M. Duren, Charles E. Miller, David R. Thompson, Christian Frankenberg, Luis Guanter, and Cynthia A. Randles
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 5655–5668, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5655-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5655-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the potential for global detection of methane plumes from individual point sources with the new generation of spaceborne imaging spectrometers scheduled for launch in 2019–2025. We perform methane retrievals on simulated scenes with varying surfaces and atmospheric methane concentrations. Our results suggest that imaging spectrometers in space could play a transformative role in the future for quantifying methane emissions from point sources on a global scale.
Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Bjørn H. Samset, Kari Alterskjær, Timothy Andrews, Olivier Boucher, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Piers M. Forster, Matthew Kasoar, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas B. Richardson, Dilshad Shawki, Drew Shindell, Keith P. Shine, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12887–12899, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Different greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2) and aerosols (e.g. black carbon) impact the Earth’s water cycle differently. Here we investigate how various gases and particles impact atmospheric water vapour and its lifetime, i.e., the average number of days that water vapour stays in the atmosphere after evaporation and before precipitation. We find that this lifetime could increase substantially by the end of this century, indicating that important changes in precipitation patterns are excepted.
Daniel H. Cusworth, Daniel J. Jacob, Jian-Xiong Sheng, Joshua Benmergui, Alexander J. Turner, Jeremy Brandman, Laurent White, and Cynthia A. Randles
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16885–16896, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16885-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16885-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Methane emissions from oil/gas fields originate from a large number of small and densely clustered point sources. We examine the potential of recently launched or planned satellites to locate these high-mode emitters through measurements of atmospheric methane. We find that the recently launched TROPOMI and the planned GeoCARB instruments are successful at locating high-emitting sources for fields of 20-50 emitters within the 50 × 50 km2 geographic domain but are unsuccessful for denser fields.
Christopher J. Smith, Piers M. Forster, Myles Allen, Nicholas Leach, Richard J. Millar, Giovanni A. Passerello, and Leighton A. Regayre
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2273–2297, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2273-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2273-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
FAIR v1.3 is a simple Python-based climate model emulator. It takes emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosol and ozone precursors to calculate radiative forcing and temperature change. It includes a simple representation of carbon cycle feedbacks due to temperature and accumulated carbon uptake. Large ensembles can be run with minimal computational expense for any user-specified emissions pathway. We produce such an ensemble using the RCP emissions datasets.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Bjørn H. Samset, Oliviér Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Jana Sillmann, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Timothy Andrews, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Trond Iversen, Matthew Kasoar, Viatcheslav Kharin, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Richardson, Camilla W. Stjern, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8439–8452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018, 2018
Alexander J. Turner, Daniel J. Jacob, Joshua Benmergui, Jeremy Brandman, Laurent White, and Cynthia A. Randles
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8265–8278, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8265-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We conduct a 1-week WRF-STILT simulation to generate methane column footprints at 1.3 km spatial resolution and hourly temporal resolution over the Barnett Shale. We find that a week of TROPOMI observations should provide regional (~30 km) information on temporally invariant sources and GeoCARB should provide information on temporally invariant sources at 2–7 km spatial resolution. An instrument precision better than 6 ppb is an important threshold for achieving fine resolution of emissions.
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Yves Balkanski, Susanne Bauer, Nicolas Bellouin, Terje K. Berntsen, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Thomas Diehl, Richard Easter, Steven J. Ghan, Trond Iversen, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-François Lamarque, Guangxing Lin, Xiaohong Liu, Gan Luo, Gunnar Myhre, Twan van Noije, Joyce E. Penner, Michael Schulz, Øyvind Seland, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Fangqun Yu, Kai Zhang, and Hua Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12197–12218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12197-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12197-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The role of aerosols in the changing polar climate is not well understood and the aerosols are poorly constrained in the models. In this study we have compared output from 16 different aerosol models with available observations at both poles. We show that the model median is representative of the observations, but the model spread is large. The Arctic direct aerosol radiative effect over the industrial area is positive during spring due to black carbon and negative during summer due to sulfate.
Anahita Amiri-Farahani, Robert J. Allen, David Neubauer, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6305–6322, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6305-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6305-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We use observations from 2004 to 2012 to obtain estimates of the aerosol–cloud radiative effect, including its uncertainty, for dust aerosol influencing Atlantic marine stratocumulus clouds (MSc) off the coast of north Africa. Saharan dust modifies MSc in a way that acts to cool the planet. There is a strong seasonal variation, with the aerosol–cloud radiative effect switching from significantly negative during the boreal summer to weakly positive during boreal winter.
Marianne T. Lund, Terje K. Berntsen, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6003–6022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6003-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6003-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates possibilities for improving the representation of black carbon (BC) distribution in a global atmospheric chemistry-transport model by exploring uncertainties in key processes controlling the removal of aerosols from the atmosphere. Our results provide an increased understanding of the processes contributing to uncertainties in the BC abundance and climate impact and underline the importance of more observations and experimental data further constrain models.
Elisabeth Andrews, John A. Ogren, Stefan Kinne, and Bjorn Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6041–6072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6041-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6041-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We compare absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA) from AERONET retrievals with AAOD and SSA obtained from in situ vertical profiling flights over two rural sites in North America. The direct comparisons of in situ derived to AERONET-retrieved AAOD (or SSA) reveal that AERONET retrievals yield higher aerosol absorption than obtained from the in situ profiles. This has implications for models using AERONET to evaluate or scale their simulated absorption values.
Gunnar Myhre, Wenche Aas, Ribu Cherian, William Collins, Greg Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Piers Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Zbigniew Klimont, Marianne T. Lund, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Dirk Olivié, Michael Prather, Johannes Quaas, Bjørn H. Samset, Jordan L. Schnell, Michael Schulz, Drew Shindell, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Svetlana Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2709–2720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Over the past decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The global mean radiative forcing is more strongly positive than reported in IPCC AR5.
Tamás Kovács, Wuhu Feng, Anna Totterdill, John M. C. Plane, Sandip Dhomse, Juan Carlos Gómez-Martín, Gabriele P. Stiller, Florian J. Haenel, Christopher Smith, Piers M. Forster, Rolando R. García, Daniel R. Marsh, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 883–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-883-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-883-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) is a very potent greenhouse gas, which is present in the atmosphere only through its industrial use, for example as an electrical insulator. To estimate accurately the impact of SF6 emissions on climate we need to know how long it persists in the atmosphere before being removed. Previous estimates of the SF6 lifetime indicate a large degree of uncertainty. Here we use a detailed atmospheric model to calculate a current best estimate of the SF6 lifetime.
Nicolas Bellouin, Laura Baker, Øivind Hodnebrog, Dirk Olivié, Ribu Cherian, Claire Macintosh, Bjørn Samset, Anna Esteve, Borgar Aamaas, Johannes Quaas, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13885–13910, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13885-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13885-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses global climate models to quantify how strongly man-made emissions of selected pollutants modify the energy budget of the Earth. The pollutants studied interact directly and indirectly with sunlight and terrestrial radiation and remain a relatively short time in the atmosphere, leading to regional and seasonal variations in their impacts. This new data set is useful to compare the potential climate impacts of different pollutants in support of policies to reduce climate change.
Camilla Weum Stjern, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Yanko Davila, Frank Dentener, Louisa Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Amund Søvde Haslerud, Daven Henze, Jan Eiof Jonson, Tom Kucsera, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Michael Schulz, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13579–13599, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13579-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13579-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Air pollution can reach distant regions through intercontinental transport. Here we first present results from the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 exercise, where many models performed the same set of coordinated emission-reduction experiments. We find that mitigations have considerable extra-regional effects, and show that this is particularly true for black carbon emissions, as long-range transport elevates aerosols to higher levels where their radiative influence is stronger.
A. Stohl, B. Aamaas, M. Amann, L. H. Baker, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, O. Boucher, R. Cherian, W. Collins, N. Daskalakis, M. Dusinska, S. Eckhardt, J. S. Fuglestvedt, M. Harju, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, J. Hao, U. Im, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Maas, C. R. MacIntosh, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, D. Olivié, J. Quaas, B. Quennehen, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, B. H. Samset, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, K. P. Shine, R. B. Skeie, S. Wang, K. E. Yttri, and T. Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10529–10566, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a summary of the findings of the ECLIPSE EU project. The project has investigated the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived climate pollutants (especially methane, ozone, aerosols) and has designed a global mitigation strategy that maximizes co-benefits between air quality and climate policy. Transient climate model simulations allowed quantifying the impacts on temperature (e.g., reduction in global warming by 0.22K for the decade 2041-2050) and precipitation.
L. H. Baker, W. J. Collins, D. J. L. Olivié, R. Cherian, Ø. Hodnebrog, G. Myhre, and J. Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8201–8216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of removing land-based anthropogenic emissions of three aerosol species, using four fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Removing SO2 emissions leads to warming globally, strongest in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and an increase in NH precipitation. Organic and black carbon (OC, BC) have a weaker impact, and less certainty on the response; OC (BC) removal shows a weak overall warming (cooling), and both show small increases in precipitation globally.
V. Buchard, A. M. da Silva, P. R. Colarco, A. Darmenov, C. A. Randles, R. Govindaraju, O. Torres, J. Campbell, and R. Spurr
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5743–5760, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5743-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5743-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
MERRAero is an aerosol reanalysis based on the GEOS-5 earth system model that incorporates an online aerosol module and assimilation of AOD from MODIS sensors. This study assesses the quality of MERRAero absorption using independent OMI observations. In addition to comparisons to OMI absorption AOD, we have developed a radiative transfer interface to simulate the UV aerosol index from assimilated aerosol fields at OMI footprint. Also, we fully diagnose the model using MISR, AERONET and CALIPSO.
G. Myhre and B. H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2883–2888, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2883-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2883-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Radiative forcing (RF) of black carbon (BC) in the atmosphere is estimated using radiative transfer codes of various complexities. Here we show that the two-stream radiative transfer codes used most in climate models give overly strong forward scattering, leading to enhanced absorption at the surface and overly weak absorption by BC. Such calculations are found to underestimate RF in all sky conditions by 10% for global mean, relative to the more sophisticated multi-stream model.
B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, A. Herber, Y. Kondo, S.-M. Li, N. Moteki, M. Koike, N. Oshima, J. P. Schwarz, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, M. Chin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, J. E. Penner, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12465–12477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12465-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12465-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Far from black carbon (BC) emission sources, present climate models are unable to reproduce flight measurements. By comparing recent models with data, we find that the atmospheric lifetime of BC may be overestimated in models. By adjusting modeled BC concentrations to measurements in remote regions - over oceans and at high altitudes - we arrive at a reduced estimate for BC radiative forcing over the industrial era.
M. S. Eide, S. B. Dalsøren, Ø. Endresen, B. Samset, G. Myhre, J. Fuglestvedt, and T. Berntsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4183–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4183-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4183-2013, 2013
P. Stier, N. A. J. Schutgens, N. Bellouin, H. Bian, O. Boucher, M. Chin, S. Ghan, N. Huneeus, S. Kinne, G. Lin, X. Ma, G. Myhre, J. E. Penner, C. A. Randles, B. Samset, M. Schulz, T. Takemura, F. Yu, H. Yu, and C. Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3245–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3245-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3245-2013, 2013
C. A. Randles, S. Kinne, G. Myhre, M. Schulz, P. Stier, J. Fischer, L. Doppler, E. Highwood, C. Ryder, B. Harris, J. Huttunen, Y. Ma, R. T. Pinker, B. Mayer, D. Neubauer, R. Hitzenberger, L. Oreopoulos, D. Lee, G. Pitari, G. Di Genova, J. Quaas, F. G. Rose, S. Kato, S. T. Rumbold, I. Vardavas, N. Hatzianastassiou, C. Matsoukas, H. Yu, F. Zhang, H. Zhang, and P. Lu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2347–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2347-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2347-2013, 2013
B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, M. Schulz, Y. Balkanski, S. Bauer, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, N. Bellouin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, S. Kinne, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, J. E. Penner, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2423–2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2423-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2423-2013, 2013
S. B. Dalsøren, B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, J. J. Corbett, R. Minjares, D. Lack, and J. S. Fuglestvedt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1941–1955, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1941-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1941-2013, 2013
G. Myhre, B. H. Samset, M. Schulz, Y. Balkanski, S. Bauer, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, N. Bellouin, M. Chin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, J. Feichter, S. J. Ghan, D. Hauglustaine, T. Iversen, S. Kinne, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, M. T. Lund, G. Luo, X. Ma, T. van Noije, J. E. Penner, P. J. Rasch, A. Ruiz, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, P. Wang, Z. Wang, L. Xu, H. Yu, F. Yu, J.-H. Yoon, K. Zhang, H. Zhang, and C. Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1853–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1853-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1853-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate and Earth System | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Emission inventory development for spatiotemporal release of vanadium from anthropogenic sources in China
Surface temperature effects of recent reductions in shipping SO2 emissions are within internal variability
Highly resolved satellite-remote-sensing-based land-use-change inventory yields weaker surface-albedo-induced global cooling
Investigating the limiting aircraft-design-dependent and environmental factors of persistent contrail formation
Measurement report: Can zenith wet delay from GNSS “see” atmospheric turbulence? Insights from case studies across diverse climate zones
Effects of 2010–2045 climate change on ozone levels in China under a carbon neutrality scenario: key meteorological parameters and processes
Comment on "Can uncertainty in climate sensitivity be narrowed further?" by Sherwood and Forest (2024)
The Biogeophysical Effects of Carbon Fertilization of the Terrestrial Biosphere
Too cold, too saturated? Evaluating climate models at the gateway to the Arctic
Modelled surface climate response to effusive Icelandic volcanic eruptions: sensitivity to season and size
Contrasting the roles of regional anthropogenic aerosols from the western and eastern hemispheres in driving the 1980–2020 Pacific multi-decadal variations
A new method for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions in climate models
Climate variability can outweigh the influence of climate mean changes for extreme precipitation under global warming
Using a region-specific ice-nucleating particle parameterization improves the representation of Arctic clouds in a global climate model
Small emission sources in aggregate disproportionately account for a large majority of total methane emissions from the US oil and gas sector
Technical note: Recommendations for diagnosing cloud feedbacks and rapid cloud adjustments using cloud radiative kernels
Satellite quantification of methane emissions from South American countries: a high-resolution inversion of TROPOMI and GOSAT observations
To what extent does the CO2 diurnal cycle impact flux estimates derived from global and regional inversions?
Volcanic emission estimates from the inversion of ACTRIS lidar observations and their use for quantitative dispersion modelling
Can general circulation models (GCMs) represent cloud liquid water path adjustments to aerosol–cloud interactions?
Quantifying cloud masking in a single column
Constraining net long-term climate feedback from satellite-observed internal variability possible by the mid-2030s
Polar winter climate change: strong local effects from sea ice loss, widespread consequences from warming seas
Investigation of the characteristics of low-level jets over North America in a convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting simulation
Impacts of tropical cyclone–heat wave compound events on surface ozone in eastern China: comparison between the Yangtze River and Pearl River deltas
The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
A novel method for detecting tropopause structures based on the bi-Gaussian function
Unraveling the discrepancies between Eulerian and Lagrangian moisture tracking models in monsoon- and westerly-dominated basins of the Tibetan Plateau
Increasing aerosol direct effect despite declining global emissions in MPI-ESM1.2
Multi-scale variability of southeastern Australian wind resources
Parameterizations for global thundercloud corona discharge distributions
The importance of an informed choice of CO2-equivalence metrics for contrail avoidance
Relative humidity over ice as a key variable for Northern Hemisphere midlatitude tropopause inversion layers
Technical note: Posterior uncertainty estimation via a Monte Carlo procedure specialized for 4D-Var data assimilation
Understanding the role of contrails and contrail cirrus in climate change: a global perspective
Interannual variations in Siberian carbon uptake and carbon release period
Using historical temperature to constrain the climate sensitivity, the transient climate response, and aerosol-induced cooling
How atmospheric CO2 can inform us on annual and decadal shifts in the biospheric carbon uptake period
Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming
General circulation models simulate negative liquid water path–droplet number correlations, but anthropogenic aerosols still increase simulated liquid water path
Global scenarios of anthropogenic mercury emissions
Impact of Asian aerosols on the summer monsoon strongly modulated by regional precipitation biases
Opinion: Optimizing climate models with process knowledge, resolution, and artificial intelligence
Assessing methane emissions from collapsing Venezuelan oil production using TROPOMI
Simulation of ozone–vegetation coupling and feedback in China using multiple ozone damage schemes
Opinion: Can uncertainty in climate sensitivity be narrowed further?
Significant human health co-benefits of mitigating African emissions
Water vapour exchange between the atmospheric boundary layer and free troposphere over eastern China: seasonal characteristics and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation anomaly
Strong aerosol cooling alone does not explain cold-biased mid-century temperatures in CMIP6 models
Air pollution reductions caused by the COVID-19 lockdown open up a way to preserve the Himalayan glaciers
Han Zhang, Baogang Zhang, Bo Jiang, Qimin Li, Xuewen Hu, and Yi Xing
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5577–5589, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5577-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5577-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed vanadium emission inventories of anthropogenic sources in China for 2015–2019. We identified five major emission sources: coal combustion, oil burning, transportation, industrial manufacture, and waste handling. Emission outputs were calculated by integrating the emission factors and activity levels of vanadium-related processes. Our results identified the key emitters and highlighted the spatial and temporal patterns of vanadium release.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Geeta Persad, Massimo A. Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Carley E. Iles, Manoj Joshi, Marianne T. Lund, Daniel McCoy, Daniel M. Westervelt, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4443–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In 2020, regulations by the International Maritime Organization aimed to reduce aerosol emissions from ships. These aerosols previously had a cooling effect, which the regulations might reduce, revealing more greenhouse gas warming. Here we find that, while there is regional warming, the global 2020–2040 temperature rise is only +0.03 °C. This small change is difficult to distinguish from natural climate variability, indicating the regulations have had a limited effect on observed warming to date.
Xiaohu Jian, Xiaodong Zhang, Xinrui Liu, Kaijie Chen, Tao Huang, Shu Tao, Junfeng Liu, Hong Gao, Yuan Zhao, Ruiyu Zhugu, and Jianmin Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4251–4268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4251-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4251-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We implemented a new global land-use-change (LUC) dataset from 1982 to 2010 into a compact earth system model and carried out extensive multiple model scenario simulations. Our result reveals that the global radiative forcing (RF) induced by LUC driving surface albedo change is −0.12 W m−2, 20 % lower than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and vegetation changes play a key role in RF evolution, which provides an important reference for the assessment of earth energy balance.
Liam Megill and Volker Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4131–4149, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4131-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4131-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses ERA5 data to better understand the relative importance of the factors limiting persistent contrail formation. We develop climatological relationships to estimate potential persistent contrail formation for existing as well as future aircraft and propulsion system designs. We identify latitudes and pressure levels where the introduction of novel aircraft designs would result in significant changes in potential persistent contrail formation compared to existing conventional aircraft.
Gaël Kermarrec, Xavier Calbet, Zhiguo Deng, and Cintia Carbajal Henken
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3567–3581, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3567-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3567-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric delays affect global navigation satellite system (GNSS) signals. This study analyses the wet delay, a variable component caused by atmospheric water vapor, using a novel filtering method to examine small-scale turbulent variations. Case studies at five global stations revealed daily and seasonal turbulence patterns. This research will improve water vapour and cloud models, enhance nowcasting, and refine stochastic modelling for GNSS and very long baseline interferometry.
Ling Kang, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Xu Yue, Yang Yang, and Ye Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3603–3621, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3603-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3603-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using the model of Global Change and Air Pollution version 2.0, climate change over 2010–2045 under a carbon neutrality scenario is simulated to increase summertime maximum daily 8 h average ozone (O3) levels in eastern China, the North China Plain, and the Yangtze River Delta by 2.3, 4.7, and 3.0 ppbv, respectively. Temperature, radiation, and relative humidity are the key meteorological parameters and net chemical production is the key process in climate-driven O3 increases in eastern China.
Nicholas Lewis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1179, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Opinion article that this Comment concerns challenged a 2022 study by this Comment's author that found a narrower and lower ECS level than a very influential 2020 study that had the same lead author as the Opinion article. This Comment shows that claims made in the Opinion article about that 2022 study are not true, explains why the Subjective Bayesian statistical methods favoured in the Opinion article are unreliable, and discusses structural uncertainties in climate models.
Robert James Allen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-32, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
CMIP6 models are analyzed to quantify the biogeophysical (non-carbon cycle) and biogeochemical (enhanced carbon storage) effects of carbon fertilization at the time of CO2 quadrupling. The biogeophysical effects lead to relatively weak warming (0.16 ± 0.09 K ) largely due to decreases in surface latent heat flux associated with reduced canopy transpiration. Biogeochemical cooling associated with enhanced land carbon storage dominates at -1.38 K (-1.92 to -0.84 K).
Felix Pithan, Ann Kristin Naumann, and Marion Maturilli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3269–3285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3269-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3269-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Representing the exchange of air masses between the Arctic and mid-latitudes and the associated cloud formation is difficult for climate models. We compare climate model output to temperature and humidity measurements from weather balloons to provide suggestions for model improvements. Cold biases mostly occur in air that is exported from the Arctic. Models that compute the number of ice particles in a cloud better represent humidity than models that assume a fixed number of ice particles.
Tómas Zoëga, Trude Storelvmo, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2989–3010, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2989-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use an Earth system model to systematically investigate the climate response to high-latitude effusive volcanic eruptions as a function of eruption season and size, with a focus on the Arctic. We find that different seasons strongly modulate the climate response, with Arctic surface warming observed in winter and cooling in summer. Additionally, as eruptions increase in terms of sulfur dioxide emissions, the climate response becomes increasingly insensitive to variations in emission strength.
Chenrui Diao, Yangyang Xu, Aixue Hu, and Zhili Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2167–2180, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2167-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2167-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Industrial aerosol increases in Asia and reductions in North America and Europe in 1980–2020 influenced climate changes over the Pacific Ocean differently. Asian aerosols caused El Niño-like temperature patterns and slightly weakened the natural variation in the North Pacific, while reduced emissions of western countries led to extensive warming in middle–high latitudes of the North Pacific. Human impacts on the Pacific climate may change when emission reduction occurs over Asia in the future.
Brandon M. Duran, Casey J. Wall, Nicholas J. Lutsko, Takuro Michibata, Po-Lun Ma, Yi Qin, Margaret L. Duffy, Brian Medeiros, and Matvey Debolskiy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2123–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2123-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2123-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use satellite simulator data generated by global climate models to investigate how aerosol particles impact the radiative properties of liquid clouds. Specifically, we quantify the radiative perturbations arising from aerosol-driven changes in the number density of cloud droplets, the vertically integrated cloud water mass, and the cloud amount. Our results show that, in models, aerosol effects on the number density of cloud droplets contribute the most to anthropogenic climate forcing.
Kalle Nordling, Nora L. S. Fahrenbach, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1659–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
People experience daily weather, not changes in monthly averages. We investigate the likelihood of events, which occurred once every 10 years in the pre-industrial era. We analyze how summertime precipitation and daily maximum temperature events evolve. Our focus is on understanding the role of day-to-day variability in the change in the number of extreme weather days. We find that in most regions, a change in variability is the primary driver for change in summertime extreme precipitation.
Astrid B. Gjelsvik, Robert O. David, Tim Carlsen, Franziska Hellmuth, Stefan Hofer, Zachary McGraw, Harald Sodemann, and Trude Storelvmo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1617–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1617-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1617-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ice formation in clouds has a substantial impact on radiation and precipitation and must be realistically simulated in order to understand present and future Arctic climate. Rare aerosols known as ice-nucleating particles can play an important role in cloud ice formation, but their representation in global climate models is not well suited for the Arctic. In this study, the simulation of cloud phase is improved when the representation of these particles is constrained by Arctic observations.
James P. Williams, Mark Omara, Anthony Himmelberger, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Katlyn MacKay, Joshua Benmergui, Maryann Sargent, Steven C. Wofsy, Steven P. Hamburg, and Ritesh Gautam
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1513–1532, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1513-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1513-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We utilize peer-reviewed facility-level oil and gas methane emission rate data gathered in prior work to estimate the relative contributions of methane sources emitting at different emission rates in the United States. We find that the majority of total methane emissions in the US oil and gas sector stem from a large number of small sources emitting in aggregate, corroborating findings from several other studies.
Mark D. Zelinka, Li-Wei Chao, Timothy A. Myers, Yi Qin, and Stephen A. Klein
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1477–1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1477-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1477-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds lie at the heart of uncertainty in both climate sensitivity and radiative forcing, making it imperative to properly diagnose their radiative effects. Here we provide a recommended methodology and code base for the community to use in performing such diagnoses using cloud radiative kernels. We show that properly accounting for changes in obscuration of lower-level clouds by upper-level clouds is important for accurate diagnosis and attribution of cloud feedbacks and adjustments.
Sarah E. Hancock, Daniel J. Jacob, Zichong Chen, Hannah Nesser, Aaron Davitt, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Nicholas Balasus, Lucas A. Estrada, María Cazorla, Laura Dawidowski, Sebastián Diez, James D. East, Elise Penn, Cynthia A. Randles, John Worden, Ilse Aben, Robert J. Parker, and Joannes D. Maasakkers
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 797–817, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-797-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-797-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify 2021 methane emissions in South America at up to 25 km × 25 km resolution using satellite methane observations. We find a 55 % upward adjustment to anthropogenic emission inventories, including those reported to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change under the Paris Agreement. Our estimates match inventories for Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay but are much higher for other countries. Livestock emissions (65 % of anthropogenic emissions) show the largest discrepancies.
Saqr Munassar, Christian Rödenbeck, Michał Gałkowski, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, Santiago Botía, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 639–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
CO2 mole fractions simulated over a global set of stations showed an overestimation of CO2 if the diurnal cycle is missing in biogenic fluxes. This leads to biases in the estimated fluxes derived from the regional-scale inversions. Interannual variability of estimated biogenic fluxes is also affected by the exclusion of the CO2 diurnal cycle. The findings point to the importance of including the diurnal variations of CO2 in the biogenic fluxes used as priors in global and regional inversions.
Anna Kampouri, Vassilis Amiridis, Thanasis Georgiou, Stavros Solomos, Anna Gialitaki, Maria Tsichla, Michael Rennie, Simona Scollo, and Prodromos Zanis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3181, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a novel inverse modeling framework coupled with remote sensing data for improving volcanic ash dispersion forecasts, essential for aviation safety. By integrating FLEXPART dispersion model outputs with ground-based ACTRIS lidar observations, the approach estimates Etna's volcanic particle emissions and highlights significant enhancement of the forecast accuracy.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Meng Huang, Po-Lun Ma, Naser Mahfouz, Susanne E. Bauer, Susannah M. Burrows, Matthew W. Christensen, Sudhakar Dipu, Andrew Gettelman, L. Ruby Leung, Florian Tornow, Johannes Quaas, Adam C. Varble, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, and Youtong Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13633–13652, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stratocumulus clouds play a large role in Earth's climate by reflecting incoming solar energy back to space. Turbulence at stratocumulus cloud top mixes in dry, warm air, which can lead to cloud dissipation. This process is challenging for coarse-resolution global models to represent. We show that global models nevertheless agree well with our process understanding. Global models also think the process is less important for the climate than other lines of evidence have led us to conclude.
Lukas Kluft, Bjorn Stevens, Manfred Brath, and Stefan A. Buehler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3829, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a single column model, we investigate the effect of the vertical distribution of clouds on climate sensitivity. We show that, depending on their height, clouds can mask or unmask the radiative response of the clear-sky atmosphere. Our single column model yields an all-sky climate sensitivity of 2.2 K, slightly less than the clear-sky value. This value can be interpreted as a baseline to which changes in surface albedo and an assumed reduction in cloud albedo would add.
Alejandro Uribe, Frida A.-M. Bender, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13371–13384, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores climate feedbacks, vital for understanding global warming. It links them to shifts in Earth's energy balance at the atmosphere's top due to natural temperature variations. It takes roughly 50 years to establish this connection. Combined satellite observations and reanalysis suggest that Earth cools more than expected under carbon dioxide influence. However, continuous satellite data until at least the mid-2030s are crucial for refining our understanding of climate feedbacks.
Tuomas Naakka, Daniel Köhler, Kalle Nordling, Petri Räisänen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Bjørn H. Samset, Victoria A. Sinclair, Jennie L. Thomas, and Annica L. M. Ekman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3458, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The effects on polar climates of warmer sea surface temperatures and decreasing sea ice cover have been studied using four climate models with identical prescribed changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover. The models predict similar changes in air temperature and precipitation in the polar regions in a warmer climate with less sea ice. However, the models disagree on how the atmospheric circulation, i.e. the large-scale winds, will change with warmer temperatures and less sea ice.
Xiao Ma, Yanping Li, Zhenhua Li, and Fei Huo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12013–12030, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12013-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12013-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses 4 km Weather Research and Forecasting simulations to investigate the features of low-level jets (LLJs) in North America. It identifies significant LLJ systems, such as the Great Plains LLJ. It also provides insight into LLJs poorly captured in coarser models, such as the northerly Quebec LLJ and the small-scale, low-level wind maxima around the Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, the study examines different physical mechanisms of forming three distinct types of LLJs.
Cuini Qi, Pinya Wang, Yang Yang, Huimin Li, Hui Zhang, Lili Ren, Xipeng Jin, Chenchao Zhan, Jianping Tang, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11775–11789, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11775-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11775-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate extremely hot weather impacts on surface ozone over the southeastern coast of China with and without tropical cyclones. Compared to hot days alone, ozone concentration decreased notably in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) but increased in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) during tropical cyclones and hot days. The YRD benefited from strong and clean sea winds aiding ozone elimination. In contrast, the PRD experienced strong northeasterly winds that potentially transport ozone pollution.
Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, Brian Soden, Amy Clement, Gabriel Vecchi, Sofia Menemenlis, and Wenchang Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11275–11283, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The rapid global warming of 2023 has led to concerns that it could be externally driven. Here we show that climate models subject only to internal variability predict such warming spikes but rarely (p~1.6 %). However, when a prolonged La Niña immediately precedes an El Niño, as occurred leading up to 2023, such spikes are not uncommon (p~10.3 %). Virtually all of the spikes occur during an El Niño, strongly suggesting that internal variability drove the 2023 warming.
Kun Zhang, Tao Luo, Xuebin Li, Shengcheng Cui, Ningquan Weng, Yinbo Huang, and Yingjian Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11157–11173, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In order to deeply understand the formation mechanisms and evolution processes associated with vertical tropopause structures, this study proposes a new method for identifying the multiple characteristic parameters of vertical tropopause structures by fitting temperature profiles using the bi-Gaussian function. The identification results from the bi-Gaussian method are more reasonable and more consistent with the evolution process of atmospheric thermal stratifications.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Qiuhong Tang, Shibo Yao, Bo Sun, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10741–10758, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10741-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For moisture tracking over the Tibetan Plateau, we recommend using high-resolution forcing datasets, prioritizing temporal resolution over spatial resolution for WAM2layers, while for FLEXPART coupled with WaterSip, we suggest applying bias corrections to optimize the filtering of precipitation particles and adjust evaporation estimates.
Antoine Hermant, Linnea Huusko, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10707–10715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol particles, from natural and human sources, have a cooling effect on the climate, partially offsetting global warming. They do this through direct (sunlight reflection) and indirect (cloud property alteration) mechanisms. Using a global climate model, we found that, despite declining emissions, the direct effect of human aerosols has increased while the indirect effect has decreased, which is attributed to the shift in emissions from North America and Europe to Southeast Asia.
Claire L. Vincent and Andrew J. Dowdy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10209–10223, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10209-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10209-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how wind speed at the height of a wind turbine changes during El Niño and La Niña years and with season and time of day in southeastern Australia. We found that El Niño and La Niña can cause average wind speed differences of around 1 m s-1 in some regions. The highest wind speeds occur in the afternoon or evening around mountains or the coast and during the night for inland areas. The results help show how placement of wind turbines can help balance electricity generation.
Sergio Soler, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Patrick Jöckel, Torsten Neubert, Olivier Chanrion, Victor Reglero, and Nikolai Østgaard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10225–10243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden local ozone (O3) enhancements have been reported in different regions of the world since the 1970s. While the hot channel of lightning strokes directly produce significant amounts of nitrogen oxide, no direct emission of O3 is expected. Corona discharges in convective active regions could explain local O3 increases, which remains unexplained. We present the first mathematical functions that relate the global annual frequency of in-cloud coronas with four sets of meteorological variables.
Audran Borella, Olivier Boucher, Keith P. Shine, Marc Stettler, Katsumasa Tanaka, Roger Teoh, and Nicolas Bellouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9401–9417, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work studies how to compare the climate impact of the CO2 emitted and contrails formed by a flight. This is applied to contrail avoidance strategies that would decrease climate impact of flights by changing the trajectory of aircraft to avoid persistent contrail formation, at the risk of increasing CO2 emissions. We find that different comparison methods lead to different quantification of the total climate impact of a flight but lead to similar decisions of whether to reroute an aircraft.
Daniel Köhler, Philipp Reutter, and Peter Spichtinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10055–10072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10055-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10055-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, the influence of humidity on the properties of the tropopause is studied. The tropopause is the interface between the troposphere and the stratosphere and represents a barrier for the transport of air masses between the troposphere and the stratosphere. We consider not only the tropopause itself, but also a layer around it called the tropopause inversion layer (TIL). It is shown that the moister the underlying atmosphere is, the more this layer acts as a barrier.
Michael Stanley, Mikael Kuusela, Brendan Byrne, and Junjie Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9419–9433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To serve the uncertainty quantification (UQ) needs of 4D-Var data assimilation (DA) practitioners, we describe and justify a UQ algorithm from carbon flux inversion and incorporate its sampling uncertainty into the final reported UQ. The algorithm is mathematically proved, and its performance is shown for a carbon flux observing system simulation experiment. These results legitimize and generalize this algorithm's current use and make available this effective algorithm to new DA domains.
Dharmendra Kumar Singh, Swarnali Sanyal, and Donald J. Wuebbles
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9219–9262, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Radiative forcing of contrails could triple by 2050 due to increased air traffic and potential changes in flight altitudes. Factors like air traffic patterns, fuel efficiency, alternative fuels, and climate change further influence this impact. By highlighting gaps in knowledge and uncertainties, this research helps set priorities for future studies and assess strategies to mitigate the environmental impact of aviation emissions.
Dieu Anh Tran, Christoph Gerbig, Christian Rödenbeck, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8413–8440, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The analysis of the atmospheric CO2 record from the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO) in central Siberia shows significant increases in the length and amplitude of the CO2 uptake and release in the 2010–2021 period. The trend shows a stronger increase in carbon release amplitude compared to the uptake, suggesting that, despite enhanced growing season uptake, during this period climate warming did not elevate the annual net CO2 uptake as cold-season respirations also responded to the warming.
Olaf Morgenstern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8105–8123, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
I use errors in climate model simulations to derive correction factors for the impacts of greenhouse gases and particles that bring these simulated temperature fields into agreement with an observational reconstruction of the Earth's temperature. On average across eight models, a reduction by about one-half of the particle-induced cooling would be required, causing only 0.24 K of cooling since 1850–1899. The greenhouse gas warming simulated by several highly sensitive models would also reduce.
Theertha Kariyathan, Ana Bastos, Markus Reichstein, Wouter Peters, and Julia Marshall
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1382, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The carbon uptake period (CUP) refers to the time of the year when there is net absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere to the land. Several studies have assessed changes in CUP based on seasonal metrics from CO2 mole fraction measurements to understand the response of terrestrial biosphere to climate variations. However, we find that the CUP derived from CO2 mole fraction measurements are not likely to provide an accurate magnitude of the actual changes occurring over the surface.
Donghuan Li, Tianjun Zhou, Youcun Qi, Liwei Zou, Chao Li, Wenxia Zhang, and Xiaolong Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7347–7358, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two sets of climate model simulations are used to investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic factors of future change in cold extremes in East Asia. Dynamic factor accounted for over 80 % of cold-month temperature anomalies in past 50 years. The intensity of cold extreme is expected to decrease by 5 ℃, with thermodynamic factor contributing ~ 75 % by the end of the 21st century. Changes in dynamic factor are driven by an upward trend of positive Arctic Oscillation-like sea level pressure pattern.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Edward Gryspeerdt, Sudhakar Dipu, Johannes Quaas, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Florian Tornow, Susanne E. Bauer, Andrew Gettelman, Yi Ming, Youtong Zheng, Po-Lun Ma, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Matthew W. Christensen, Adam C. Varble, L. Ruby Leung, Xiaohong Liu, David Neubauer, Daniel G. Partridge, Philip Stier, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7331–7345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Human activities release copious amounts of small particles called aerosols into the atmosphere. These particles change how much sunlight clouds reflect to space, an important human perturbation of the climate, whose magnitude is highly uncertain. We found that the latest climate models show a negative correlation but a positive causal relationship between aerosols and cloud water. This means we need to be very careful when we interpret observational studies that can only see correlation.
Flora Maria Brocza, Peter Rafaj, Robert Sander, Fabian Wagner, and Jenny Marie Jones
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7385–7404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To understand how atmospheric mercury levels will change in the future, we model how anthropogenic Hg releases will change following developments in human energy use and mercury use and efforts to reduce pollution and battle climate change. Overall, the findings emphasize that it will be necessary to implement targeted Hg control measures in addition to stringent climate and clean air policies to achieve significant reductions in Hg emissions.
Zhen Liu, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Laura J. Wilcox
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7227–7252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model-simulated spatio-temporal variability in the climatological monsoon precipitation across Asia, which critically modulates the efficacy of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, the predominant driver of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South Asia and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response.
Tapio Schneider, L. Ruby Leung, and Robert C. J. Wills
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7041–7062, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7041-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are crucial for predicting climate change in detail. This paper proposes a balanced approach to improving their accuracy by combining traditional process-based methods with modern artificial intelligence (AI) techniques while maximizing the resolution to allow for ensemble simulations. The authors propose using AI to learn from both observational and simulated data while incorporating existing physical knowledge to reduce data demands and improve climate prediction reliability.
Brian Nathan, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Stijn Naus, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Lucas A. Estrada, Alba Lorente, Tobias Borsdorff, Robert J. Parker, and Ilse Aben
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6845–6863, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6845-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6845-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Venezuela's Lake Maracaibo region is notoriously hard to observe from space and features intensive oil exploitation, although production has strongly decreased in recent years. We estimate methane emissions using 2018–2020 TROPOMI satellite observations with national and regional transport models. Despite the production decrease, we find relatively constant emissions from Lake Maracaibo between 2018 and 2020, indicating that there could be large emissions from abandoned infrastructure.
Jiachen Cao, Xu Yue, and Mingrui Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3973–3987, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We implemented two widely used ozone damage schemes into a same regional model. Although the two schemes yielded distinct ozone vegetation damages, they predicted similar feedbacks to surface air temperature and ozone air quality in China. Our results highlighted the significance of ozone pollution control given its detrimental impacts on ecosystem functions, contributions to global warming, and amplifications of ozone pollution through ozone–vegetation coupling.
Steven C. Sherwood and Chris E. Forest
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2679–2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2679-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2679-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most fundamental parameter used to gauge the severity of future climate change is the so-called equilibrium climate sensitivity, which measures the warming that would ultimately occur due to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Due to recent advances it is now thought to probably lie in the range 2.5–4 °C. We discuss this and the issues involved in evaluating and using the number, pointing to some pitfalls in current efforts but also possibilities for further progress.
Christopher D. Wells, Matthew Kasoar, Majid Ezzati, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1025–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Human-driven emissions of air pollutants, mostly caused by burning fossil fuels, impact both the climate and human health. Millions of deaths each year are caused by air pollution globally, and the future trends are uncertain. Here, we use a global climate model to study the effect of African pollutant emissions on surface level air pollution, and resultant impacts on human health, in several future emission scenarios. We find much lower health impacts under cleaner, lower-emission futures.
Xipeng Jin, Xuhui Cai, Xuesong Wang, Qianqian Huang, Yu Song, Ling Kang, Hongsheng Zhang, and Tong Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 259–274, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-259-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a climatology of water vapour exchange flux between the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and free troposphere (FT) over eastern China. The water vapour exchange maintains ABL humidity in cold months and moistens the FT in warm seasons, and its distribution has terrain-dependent features. The exchange flux is correlated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and precipitation pattern. The study provides new insight into moisture transport and extreme weather.
Clare Marie Flynn, Linnea Huusko, Angshuman Modak, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15121–15133, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15121-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15121-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The latest-generation climate models show surprisingly cold mid-20th century global-mean temperatures, often despite exhibiting more realistic late 20th/early 21st century temperatures. A too-strong aerosol forcing in many models was thought to the be primary cause of these too-cold mid-century temperatures, but this was found to only be a partial explanation. This also partly undermines the hope to construct a strong relationship between the mid-century temperatures and aerosol forcing.
Suvarna Fadnavis, Bernd Heinold, T. P. Sabin, Anne Kubin, Katty Huang, Alexandru Rap, and Rolf Müller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10439–10449, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10439-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10439-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of the COVID-19 lockdown on the Himalayas caused increases in snow cover and a decrease in runoff, ultimately leading to an enhanced snow water equivalent. Our findings highlight that, out of the two processes causing a retreat of Himalayan glaciers – (1) slow response to global climate change and (2) fast response to local air pollution – a policy action on the latter is more likely to be within the reach of possible policy action to help billions of people in southern Asia.
Cited articles
Allen, R.: CESM2/CAM6 Idealized Methane Simulations, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10357888, 2023.
Allen, R. J., Zhao, X., Randles, C. A., Kramer, R. J., Samset, B. H., and Smith, C. J.: Surface warming and wetting due to methane's long-wave radiative effects muted by short-wave absorption, Nat. Geosci., 16, 314–320, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01144-z, 2023.
Allen, R. J., Amiri-Farahani, A., Lamarque, J.-F., Smith, C., Shindell, D., Hassan, T., and Chung, C. E.: Observationally-constrained aerosol–cloud semi-direct effects, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 2, 16, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0073-9, 2019.
Amiri-Farahani, A., Allen, R. J., Li, K.-F., and Chu, J.-E.: The semidirect effect of combined dust and sea salt aerosols in a multimodel analysis, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 10512–10521, 2019.
Byrom, R. E. and Shine, K. P.: Methane's solar radiative forcing,Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL098270, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098270, 2022.
Clement, A., Burgman, R., and Norris, J. R.: Observational and model evidence for positive low-level cloud feedback, Science, 325, 460–464, 2009.
Collins, W. D., Feldman, D. R., Kuo, C., and Nguyen, N. H.: Large regional shortwave forcing by anthropogenic methane informed by Jovian observations, Sci. Adv. 4, eaas9593, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aas9593, 2018.
Conley, A. J., Lamarque, J.-F., Vitt, F., Collins, W. D., and Kiehl, J.: PORT, a CESM tool for the diagnosis of radiative forcing, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 469–476, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-469-2013, 2013.
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D. A., DuVivier, A. K., Edwards, J., Emmons, L. K., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Holland, M. M., Large, W. G., Lauritzen, P. H., Lawrence, D. M., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Mills, M. J., Neale, R., Oleson, K. W., Otto-Bliesner, B., Phillips, A. S., Sacks, W., Tilmes, S., van Kampenhout, L., Vertenstein, M., Bertini, A., Dennis, J., Deser, C., Fischer, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Kay, J. E., Kinnison, D., Kushner, P. J., Larson, V. E., Long, M. C., Mickelson, S., Moore, J. K., Nienhouse, E., Polvani, L., Rasch, P. J., and Strand, W. G.: The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS001916, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916, 2020 (data available at: http://www.cesm.ucar.edu:/models/cesm2/, last access: May 2023).
Etminan, M., Myhre, G., Highwood, E. J., and Shine, K. P.: Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: a significant revision of the methane radiative forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 12614–12623, 2016.
Fläschner, D., Mauritsen, T., and Stevens, B.: Understanding the Intermodel Spread in Global-Mean Hydrological Sensitivity, J. Climate, 29, 801–817, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0351.1, 2016.
Forster, P., Storelvmo, T., Armour, K., Collins, W., Dufresne, J.-L., Frame, D., Lunt, D. J., Mauritsen, T., Palmer, M. D., Watanabe, M., Wild, M., and Zhang, H.: The Earth's Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 923–1054, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.009, 2021.
Forster, P. M., Richardson, T., Maycock, A. C., Smith, C. J., Samset, B. H., Myhre, G., Andrews, T., Pincus, R., and Schulz, M.: Recommendations for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from climate models for CMIP6, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 12460–12475, 2016.
Gregory, J. M., Ingram, W. J., Palmer, M. A., Jones, G. S., Stott, P. A., Thorpe, R. B., Lowe, J. A., Johns, T. C., and Williams, K. D: A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L03205, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018747, 2004.
Hogan, R. J. and Matricardi, M.: Evaluating and improving the treatment of gases in radiation schemes: the Correlated K-Distribution Model Intercomparison Project (CKDMIP), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6501–6521, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6501-2020, 2020.
Iacono, M. J., Delamere, J. S., Mlawer, E. J., Shephard, M. W., Clough, S. A., and Collins, W. D.: Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: calculations with the AER radiative transfer models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 113, D13103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944, 2008.
Kramer, R. J., Matus, A. V., Soden, B. J., and L'Ecuyer, T. S.: Observation-based radiative kernels from CloudSat/CALIPSO, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 5431–5444, 2019.
Li, J., Curry, C. L., Sun, Z., and Zhang, F.: Overlap of solar and infared spectra and the shortwave radiative effect of methane, J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 2372–2389, 2010.
Liu, L., Shawki, D., Voulgarakis, A., Kasoar, M., Samset, B. H., Myhre, G., Forster, P. M., Hodnebrog, Ø., Sillmann, J., Aalbergsjø, S. G., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Iversen, T., Kirkevåg, A., Lamarque, J. F., Olivié, D., Richardson, T., Shindell, D., and Takemura, T.: A PDRMIP multimodel study on the impacts of regional aerosol forcings on global and regional precipitation, J. Climate, 31, 4429-4447, 2018.
Muller, C. and O'Gorman, P.: An energetic perspective on the regional response of precipitation to climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 1, 266–271, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1169, 2011.
Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Bréon, F.-M., Collins, W., Fuglestvedt, J., Huang, J., Koch, D., Lamarque, J.-F., Lee, D., Mendoza, B., Nakajima, T., Robock, A., Stephens, G., Takemura, T., and Zhang, H.: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 659–740, https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9781107415324.018, 2013.
Myhre, G., Forster, P. M., Samset, B. H., Hodnebrog, Ø, Sillmann, J., Aalbergsjø, S. G., Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., Iversen, T., Kasoar, M., Kharin, V., Kirkevåg, A., Lamarque, J.-F., Olivié, D., Richardson, T. B., Shindell, D., Shine, K. P., Stjern, C. W., Takemura, T., Voulgarakis, A., and Zwiers, F.: PDRMIP: a Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project – protocol and preliminary results, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 1185–1198, 2017.
Myhre, G., Highwood, E., Shine, K., and Stordal, F.: New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 2715–2718, https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL01908, 1998.
O'Connor, F. M., Johnson, B. T., Jamil, O., Andrews, T., Mulcahy, J. P., and Manners, J.: Apportionment of the pre-industrial to present-day climate forcing by methane using UKESM1: The role of the cloud radiative effect, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 14, e2022MS002991, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS002991, 2022.
Pincus, R., Forster, P. M., and Stevens, B.: The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): experimental protocol for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3447–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3447-2016, 2016.
Richardson, T. B., Forster, P. M., Andrews, T., and Parker, D. J.: Understanding the rapid precipitation response to CO2 and aerosol forcing on a regional scale, J. Climate, 29, 583–594, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0174.1, 2016.
Samset, B. H., Myhre, G., Forster, P. M., Hodnebrog, Ø., Andrews, T., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., Kasoar, M., Kharin, V., Kirkevåg, A., Lamarque, J.-F., Olivié, D., Richardson, T., Shindell, D., Shine, K. P., Takemura, T., and Voulgarakis, A.: Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: A PDRMIP multimodel study, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2782–2791, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068064, 2016.
Shindell, D. T., Faluvegi, G., Bell, N., and Schmidt, G. A.: An emissions-based view of climate forcing by methane and tropospheric ozone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L04803, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021900, 2005.
Shine, K. P., Byrom, R. E., and Checa-Garcia, R.: Separating the shortwave and longwave components of greenhouse gas radiative forcing, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 23, e1116, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1116, 2022.
Smith, C. J., Kramer, R. J., Myhre, G., Forster, P. M., Soden, B. J., Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., Hodnebrog, Ø., Kasoar, M., Kharin, V., Kirkevåg, A., Lamarque, J.-F., Mülmenstädt, J., Olivié, D., Richardson, T., Samset, B. H., Shindell, D., Stier, P., Takemura, T., Voulgarakis, A., and Watson-Parris, D.: Understanding rapid adjustments to diverse forcing agents, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12023–12031, 2018.
Smith, C. J., Kramer, R. J., Myhre, G., Alterskjær, K., Collins, W., Sima, A., Boucher, O., Dufresne, J.-L., Nabat, P., Michou, M., Yukimoto, S., Cole, J., Paynter, D., Shiogama, H., O'Connor, F. M., Robertson, E., Wiltshire, A., Andrews, T., Hannay, C., Miller, R., Nazarenko, L., Kirkevåg, A., Olivié, D., Fiedler, S., Lewinschal, A., Mackallah, C., Dix, M., Pincus, R., and Forster, P. M.: Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020.
Soden, B. J., Held, I. M., Colman, R., K. M. Shell, K. M., Kiehl, J. T., and Shields, C. A.: Quantifying climate feedbacks using radiative kernels, J. Climate, 21, 3504–3520, 2008 (data available at: https://climate.rsmas.miami.edu/data/radiative-kernels/, last access: May 2023).
Stevenson, D. S., Zhao, A., Naik, V., O'Connor, F. M., Tilmes, S., Zeng, G., Murray, L. T., Collins, W. J., Griffiths, P. T., Shim, S., Horowitz, L. W., Sentman, L. T., and Emmons, L.: Trends in global tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime since 1850 from AerChemMIP, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12905–12920, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, 2020.
Stjern, C. W., Samset, B. H., Myhre, G., Forster, P. M., Hodnebrog, Ø, Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Iversen, T., Kasoar, M., Kharin, V., Kirkevåg, A., Lamarque, J.-F., Olivié, D., Richardson, T., Shawki, D., Shindell, D., Smith, C. J., Takemura, T., and Voulgarakis, A.: Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 11462–11481, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027326, 2017.
Szopa, S., Naik, V., Adhikary, B., Artaxo, P., Berntsen, T., Collins, W. D., Fuzzi, S., Gallardo, L., Kiendler-Scharr, A., Klimont, Z., Liao, H., Unger, N., and Zanis, P.: Short-Lived Climate Forcers. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 817–922, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.008, 2021.
Winterstein, F., Tanalski, F., Jöckel, P., Dameris, M., and Ponater, M.: Implication of strongly increased atmospheric methane concentrations for chemistry–climate connections, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7151–7163, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7151-2019, 2019.
Wood, R. and Bretherton, C. S.: On the Relationship between Stratiform Low Cloud Cover and Lower-Tropospheric Stability, J. Climate, 19, 6425–6432, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3988.1, 2006.
Zelinka, M. D., Myers, T. A., McCoy, D. T., Po-Chedley, S., Caldwell, P. M., Ceppi, P., Klein, S. A., and Taylor, K. E.: Causes of higher climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085782, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085782, 2020.
Short summary
Present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes 28% (7–55%) of the surface warming associated with its longwave absorption. The precipitation increase associated with the longwave radiative effects of the present-day methane perturbation is also muted by shortwave absorption but not significantly so. Methane shortwave absorption also impacts the magnitude of its climate feedback parameter, largely through the cloud feedback.
Present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes 28% (7–55%) of the surface warming associated...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint