Articles | Volume 23, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3347-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3347-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Mar 2023
Research article |
| 17 Mar 2023
| 17 Mar 2023
The role of tropical upwelling in explaining discrepancies between recent modeled and observed lower-stratospheric ozone trends
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Nicholas Davis
Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National
Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Robert W. Portmann
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,
University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Karen Rosenlof
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Related authors
Mona Zolghadrshojaee, Susann Tegtmeier, Sean M. Davis, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, and Leopold Haimberger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 12213–12232, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12213-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12213-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is a crucial region where the troposphere transitions into the stratosphere, influencing air mass transport. This study examines temperature trends in the TTL and lower stratosphere using data from weather balloons, satellites and reanalysis datasets. We found cooling trends in the TTL from 1980 to 2001, followed by warming from 2002 to 2023. These shifts are linked to changes in atmospheric circulation and impact water vapour transport into the stratosphere.
Michael D. Himes, Natalya A. Kramarova, Krzysztof Wargan, Sean M. Davis, and Glen Jaross
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4845, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4845, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (AMT).
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric water vapor (SWV) influences various atmospheric processes. While the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS LP) was not designed to measure SWV, we utilized near-coincident measurements by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and OMPS LP to develop a machine learning method to measure SWV between 11.5–40.5 km. The LP-derived SWV closely agrees with MLS. Our results suggest OMPS LP can continue the global water vapor record after MLS measurements cease in 2026.
Meghan Brehon, Susann Tegtmeier, Adam Bourassa, Sean M. Davis, Udo Grabowski, Tobias Kerzenmacher, and Gabriele Stiller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4457, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
We used satellite-based water vapour data to estimate vertical transport rates in the tropical stratosphere for 1995 to 2020. These estimates were compared with other upwelling datasets and used to analyze stratospheric variability. Our results find good agreement between the datasets and reveal that variability in upwelling is mainly driven by known climate patterns like the QBO and ENSO with a clear signal in the upwelling time series coinciding with the QBO disruptions of 2015/16 and 2019/20.
Shenglong Zhang, Jiao Chen, Jonathon S. Wright, Sean M. Davis, Jie Gao, Paul Konopka, Ninghui Li, Mengqian Lu, Susann Tegtmeier, Xiaolu Yan, Guang J. Zhang, and Nuanliang Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 10109–10139, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10109-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Swirling above summer storms, the Asian monsoon anticyclone functions as both gateway and gatekeeper to moisture entering the stratosphere. Although well monitored from space since 2005, many details of the anticyclone and the air that flows through it remain mysterious. Reanalyses, which combine model output and observations, may help to address how and why but only if they reliably capture the what and where of water vapor variations. Current reanalyses are beginning to meet these criteria.
Jonathon S. Wright, Shenglong Zhang, Jiao Chen, Sean M. Davis, Paul Konopka, Mengqian Lu, Xiaolu Yan, and Guang J. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9617–9643, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9617-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9617-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric reanalysis products reconstruct past states of the atmosphere. These products are often used to study winds and temperatures in the upper-level monsoon circulation, but their ability to reproduce composition fields like water vapor and ozone has been questionable at best. Here we report clear signs of improvement in both consistency across reanalyses and agreement with satellite observations, outline limitations, and suggest steps to further enhance the usefulness of these fields.
Nigel A. D. Richards, Natalya A. Kramarova, Stacey M. Frith, Sean M. Davis, and Yue Jia
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4117, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Montreal Protocol has led to a slow recovery in the Earth's ozone layer. To detect such changes, and to monitor the health of the ozone layer, long term global observations are needed. The OMPS Limb Profiler (LP) series of satellite sensors are designed to meet this need. We validate the latest version OMPS LP ozone profiles against other satellite and ground based measurements. We find that OMPS LP ozone is consistent with other data sources and is suitable for use in ozone trend studies.
Kimberlee Dubé, Susann Tegtmeier, Adam Bourassa, Daniel Zawada, Douglas Degenstein, William Randel, Sean Davis, Michael Schwartz, Nathaniel Livesey, and Anne Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12925–12941, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12925-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12925-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Greenhouse gas emissions that warm the troposphere also result in stratospheric cooling. The cooling rate is difficult to quantify above 35 km due to a deficit of long-term observational data with high vertical resolution in this region. We use satellite observations from several instruments, including a new temperature product from OSIRIS, to show that the upper stratosphere, from 35–60 km, cooled by 0.5 to 1 K per decade over 2005–2021 and by 0.6 K per decade over 1979–2021.
Masatomo Fujiwara, Patrick Martineau, Jonathon S. Wright, Marta Abalos, Petr Šácha, Yoshio Kawatani, Sean M. Davis, Thomas Birner, and Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7873–7898, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A climatology of the major variables and terms of the transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) momentum and thermodynamic equations from four global atmospheric reanalyses is evaluated. The spread among reanalysis TEM momentum balance terms is around 10 % in Northern Hemisphere winter and up to 50 % in Southern Hemisphere winter. The largest uncertainties in the thermodynamic equation (about 50 %) are in the vertical advection, which does not show a structure consistent with the differences in heating.
Mona Zolghadrshojaee, Susann Tegtmeier, Sean M. Davis, and Robin Pilch Kedzierski
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7405–7419, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7405-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7405-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite data challenge the idea of an overall cooling trend in the tropical tropopause layer. From 2002 to 2022, a warming trend was observed, diverging from earlier findings. Tropopause height changes indicate dynamic processes alongside radiative effects. Upper-tropospheric warming contrasts with lower-stratosphere temperatures. The study highlights the complex interplay of factors shaping temperature trends.
J. Douglas Goetz, Lars E. Kalnajs, Terry Deshler, Sean M. Davis, Martina Bramberger, and M. Joan Alexander
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 791–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-791-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-791-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
An instrument for in situ continuous 2 km vertical profiles of temperature below high-altitude balloons was developed for high-temporal-resolution measurements within the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing. The mechanical, electrical, and temperature calibration systems were validated from a short mid-latitude constant-altitude balloon flight within the lower stratosphere. The instrument observed small-scale and inertial gravity waves.
Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Niramson Azouz, Viktoria F. Sofieva, Daan Hubert, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Peter Effertz, Gérard Ancellet, Doug A. Degenstein, Daniel Zawada, Lucien Froidevaux, Stacey Frith, Jeannette Wild, Sean Davis, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Thierry Leblanc, Richard Querel, Kleareti Tourpali, Robert Damadeo, Eliane Maillard Barras, René Stübi, Corinne Vigouroux, Carlo Arosio, Gerald Nedoluha, Ian Boyd, Roeland Van Malderen, Emmanuel Mahieu, Dan Smale, and Ralf Sussmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11657–11673, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11657-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
An updated evaluation up to 2020 of stratospheric ozone profile long-term trends at extrapolar latitudes based on satellite and ground-based records is presented. Ozone increase in the upper stratosphere is confirmed, with significant trends at most latitudes. In this altitude region, a very good agreement is found with trends derived from chemistry–climate model simulations. Observed and modelled trends diverge in the lower stratosphere, but the differences are non-significant.
Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Sean Davis, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7523–7538, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7523-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric water vapor is important for Earth's overall greenhouse effect and for ozone chemistry; however the factors governing its variability on interannual timescales are not fully known, and previous modeling studies have indicated that models struggle to capture this interannual variability. We demonstrate that nonlinear interactions are important for determining overall water vapor concentrations and also that models have improved in their ability to capture these connections.
Lars E. Kalnajs, Sean M. Davis, J. Douglas Goetz, Terry Deshler, Sergey Khaykin, Alex St. Clair, Albert Hertzog, Jerome Bordereau, and Alexey Lykov
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 2635–2648, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-2635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-2635-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This work introduces a novel instrument system for high-resolution atmospheric profiling, which lowers and retracts a suspended instrument package beneath drifting long-duration balloons. During a 100 d circumtropical flight, the instrument collected over a hundred 2 km profiles of temperature, water vapor, clouds, and aerosol at 1 m resolution, yielding unprecedented geographic sampling and vertical resolution measurements of the tropical tropopause layer.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ohad Harari, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Jian Rao, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Fiona M. O'Connor, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3725–3740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and El Niño is the dominant mode of variability in the ocean–atmosphere system. The connection between El Niño and water vapor above ~ 17 km is unclear, with single-model studies reaching a range of conclusions. This study examines this connection in 12 different models. While there are substantial differences among the models, all models appear to capture the fundamental physical processes correctly.
Mona Zolghadrshojaee, Susann Tegtmeier, Sean M. Davis, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, and Leopold Haimberger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 12213–12232, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12213-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12213-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is a crucial region where the troposphere transitions into the stratosphere, influencing air mass transport. This study examines temperature trends in the TTL and lower stratosphere using data from weather balloons, satellites and reanalysis datasets. We found cooling trends in the TTL from 1980 to 2001, followed by warming from 2002 to 2023. These shifts are linked to changes in atmospheric circulation and impact water vapour transport into the stratosphere.
Michael D. Himes, Natalya A. Kramarova, Krzysztof Wargan, Sean M. Davis, and Glen Jaross
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4845, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4845, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (AMT).
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric water vapor (SWV) influences various atmospheric processes. While the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS LP) was not designed to measure SWV, we utilized near-coincident measurements by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and OMPS LP to develop a machine learning method to measure SWV between 11.5–40.5 km. The LP-derived SWV closely agrees with MLS. Our results suggest OMPS LP can continue the global water vapor record after MLS measurements cease in 2026.
Meghan Brehon, Susann Tegtmeier, Adam Bourassa, Sean M. Davis, Udo Grabowski, Tobias Kerzenmacher, and Gabriele Stiller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4457, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
We used satellite-based water vapour data to estimate vertical transport rates in the tropical stratosphere for 1995 to 2020. These estimates were compared with other upwelling datasets and used to analyze stratospheric variability. Our results find good agreement between the datasets and reveal that variability in upwelling is mainly driven by known climate patterns like the QBO and ENSO with a clear signal in the upwelling time series coinciding with the QBO disruptions of 2015/16 and 2019/20.
Shenglong Zhang, Jiao Chen, Jonathon S. Wright, Sean M. Davis, Jie Gao, Paul Konopka, Ninghui Li, Mengqian Lu, Susann Tegtmeier, Xiaolu Yan, Guang J. Zhang, and Nuanliang Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 10109–10139, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10109-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Swirling above summer storms, the Asian monsoon anticyclone functions as both gateway and gatekeeper to moisture entering the stratosphere. Although well monitored from space since 2005, many details of the anticyclone and the air that flows through it remain mysterious. Reanalyses, which combine model output and observations, may help to address how and why but only if they reliably capture the what and where of water vapor variations. Current reanalyses are beginning to meet these criteria.
Jonathon S. Wright, Shenglong Zhang, Jiao Chen, Sean M. Davis, Paul Konopka, Mengqian Lu, Xiaolu Yan, and Guang J. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9617–9643, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9617-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9617-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric reanalysis products reconstruct past states of the atmosphere. These products are often used to study winds and temperatures in the upper-level monsoon circulation, but their ability to reproduce composition fields like water vapor and ozone has been questionable at best. Here we report clear signs of improvement in both consistency across reanalyses and agreement with satellite observations, outline limitations, and suggest steps to further enhance the usefulness of these fields.
Nigel A. D. Richards, Natalya A. Kramarova, Stacey M. Frith, Sean M. Davis, and Yue Jia
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4117, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Montreal Protocol has led to a slow recovery in the Earth's ozone layer. To detect such changes, and to monitor the health of the ozone layer, long term global observations are needed. The OMPS Limb Profiler (LP) series of satellite sensors are designed to meet this need. We validate the latest version OMPS LP ozone profiles against other satellite and ground based measurements. We find that OMPS LP ozone is consistent with other data sources and is suitable for use in ozone trend studies.
Pengfei Yu, Yifeng Peng, Karen H. Rosenlof, Ru-Shan Gao, Robert W. Portmann, Martin Ross, Eric Ray, Jianchun Bian, Simone Tilmes, and Owen B. Toon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2312, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) at 50 km improves climate intervention by reducing global cooling by 22 % and polar cooling by 40 %, preserving Arctic sea ice 20 % more effectively than traditional 25-km SAI. It also reduces Antarctic ozone depletion, shortening recovery delay from 25–55 years to about 5 years. Additionally, SAI at 50 km halves tropical lower stratospheric warming, minimizing disruptions to stratospheric water vapor and jet streams compared to the 25-km method.
Simone Brunamonti, Harald Saathoff, Albert Hertzog, Glenn Diskin, Masatomo Fujiwara, Karen Rosenlof, Ottmar Möhler, Béla Tuzson, Lukas Emmenegger, Nadir Amarouche, Georges Durry, Fabien Frérot, Jean-Christophe Samake, Claire Cenac, Julio Lopez, Paul Monnier, and Mélanie Ghysels
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1029, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1029, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas and accurate measurements of its concentration in the upper atmosphere (~8–25 km altitude) are crucial for reliable climate predictions. We investigated the performance of four airborne hygrometers, deployed on aircraft or stratospheric balloon platforms and based on different techniques, in a climate simulation chamber. The results demonstrate the high accuracy and reliability of the involved sensors for atmospheric monitoring and research applications.
Laura N. Saunders, Kaley A. Walker, Gabriele P. Stiller, Thomas von Clarmann, Florian Haenel, Hella Garny, Harald Bönisch, Chris D. Boone, Ariana E. Castillo, Andreas Engel, Johannes C. Laube, Marianna Linz, Felix Ploeger, David A. Plummer, Eric A. Ray, and Patrick E. Sheese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4185–4209, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4185-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4185-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a 17-year stratospheric age-of-air dataset derived from ACE-FTS satellite measurements of sulfur hexafluoride. This is the longest continuous, global, and vertically resolved age of air time series available to date. In this paper, we show that this dataset agrees well with age-of-air datasets based on measurements from other instruments. We also present trends in the midlatitude lower stratosphere that indicate changes in the global circulation that are predicted by climate models.
Florian Voet, Felix Ploeger, Johannes Laube, Peter Preusse, Paul Konopka, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Jörn Ungermann, Björn-Martin Sinnhuber, Michael Höpfner, Bernd Funke, Gerald Wetzel, Sören Johansson, Gabriele Stiller, Eric Ray, and Michaela I. Hegglin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3541–3565, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study refines estimates of the stratospheric “age of air”, a measure of how long air circulates in the stratosphere. By analyzing correlations between trace gases measurable by satellites, the research introduces a method that reduces uncertainties and detects small-scale atmospheric features. This improved understanding of stratospheric circulation is crucial for better climate models and predictions, enhancing our ability to assess the impacts of climate change on the atmosphere.
Gregory P. Schill, Karl D. Froyd, Daniel M. Murphy, Christina J. Williamson, Charles A. Brock, Tomás Sherwen, Mat J. Evans, Eric A. Ray, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, Alan J. Hills, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea R. Thompson, Ilann Bourgeois, Donald R. Blake, Joshua P. DiGangi, and Glenn S. Diskin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 45–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-45-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-45-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using single-particle mass spectrometry, we show that trace concentrations of bromine and iodine are ubiquitous in remote tropospheric aerosol and suggest that aerosols are an important part of the global reactive iodine budget. Comparisons to a global climate model with detailed iodine chemistry are favorable in the background atmosphere; however, the model cannot replicate our measurements near the ocean surface, in biomass burning plumes, and in the stratosphere.
Kimberlee Dubé, Susann Tegtmeier, Adam Bourassa, Daniel Zawada, Douglas Degenstein, William Randel, Sean Davis, Michael Schwartz, Nathaniel Livesey, and Anne Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12925–12941, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12925-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12925-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Greenhouse gas emissions that warm the troposphere also result in stratospheric cooling. The cooling rate is difficult to quantify above 35 km due to a deficit of long-term observational data with high vertical resolution in this region. We use satellite observations from several instruments, including a new temperature product from OSIRIS, to show that the upper stratosphere, from 35–60 km, cooled by 0.5 to 1 K per decade over 2005–2021 and by 0.6 K per decade over 1979–2021.
Eric A. Ray, Fred L. Moore, Hella Garny, Eric J. Hintsa, Bradley D. Hall, Geoff S. Dutton, David Nance, James W. Elkins, Steven C. Wofsy, Jasna Pittman, Bruce Daube, Bianca C. Baier, Jianghanyang Li, and Colm Sweeney
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12425–12445, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we describe new techniques to derive age of air from multiple simultaneous measurements of long-lived trace gases in order to improve the fidelity of the age-of-air estimates and to be able to compare age of air from measurements taken from different instruments, platforms and decades. This technique also allows new transport information to be obtained from the measurements such as the primary source latitude that can also be compared to models.
Masatomo Fujiwara, Patrick Martineau, Jonathon S. Wright, Marta Abalos, Petr Šácha, Yoshio Kawatani, Sean M. Davis, Thomas Birner, and Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7873–7898, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A climatology of the major variables and terms of the transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) momentum and thermodynamic equations from four global atmospheric reanalyses is evaluated. The spread among reanalysis TEM momentum balance terms is around 10 % in Northern Hemisphere winter and up to 50 % in Southern Hemisphere winter. The largest uncertainties in the thermodynamic equation (about 50 %) are in the vertical advection, which does not show a structure consistent with the differences in heating.
Mona Zolghadrshojaee, Susann Tegtmeier, Sean M. Davis, and Robin Pilch Kedzierski
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7405–7419, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7405-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7405-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite data challenge the idea of an overall cooling trend in the tropical tropopause layer. From 2002 to 2022, a warming trend was observed, diverging from earlier findings. Tropopause height changes indicate dynamic processes alongside radiative effects. Upper-tropospheric warming contrasts with lower-stratosphere temperatures. The study highlights the complex interplay of factors shaping temperature trends.
Hella Garny, Roland Eichinger, Johannes C. Laube, Eric A. Ray, Gabriele P. Stiller, Harald Bönisch, Laura Saunders, and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4193–4215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4193-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4193-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transport circulation in the stratosphere is important for the distribution of tracers, but its strength is hard to measure. Mean transport times can be inferred from observations of trace gases with certain properties, such as sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). However, this gas has a chemical sink in the high atmosphere, which can lead to substantial biases in inferred transport times. In this paper we present a method to correct mean transport times derived from SF6 for the effects of chemical sinks.
Yunqian Zhu, Robert W. Portmann, Douglas Kinnison, Owen Brian Toon, Luis Millán, Jun Zhang, Holger Vömel, Simone Tilmes, Charles G. Bardeen, Xinyue Wang, Stephanie Evan, William J. Randel, and Karen H. Rosenlof
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13355–13367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption injected a large amount of water into the stratosphere. Ozone depletion was observed inside the volcanic plume. Chlorine and water vapor injected by this eruption exceeded the normal range, which made the ozone chemistry during this event occur at a higher temperature than polar ozone depletion. Unlike polar ozone chemistry where chlorine nitrate is more important, hypochlorous acid plays a large role in the in-plume chlorine balance and heterogeneous processes.
Michael Kiefer, Dale F. Hurst, Gabriele P. Stiller, Stefan Lossow, Holger Vömel, John Anderson, Faiza Azam, Jean-Loup Bertaux, Laurent Blanot, Klaus Bramstedt, John P. Burrows, Robert Damadeo, Bianca Maria Dinelli, Patrick Eriksson, Maya García-Comas, John C. Gille, Mark Hervig, Yasuko Kasai, Farahnaz Khosrawi, Donal Murtagh, Gerald E. Nedoluha, Stefan Noël, Piera Raspollini, William G. Read, Karen H. Rosenlof, Alexei Rozanov, Christopher E. Sioris, Takafumi Sugita, Thomas von Clarmann, Kaley A. Walker, and Katja Weigel
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 4589–4642, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4589-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4589-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify biases and drifts (and their uncertainties) between the stratospheric water vapor measurement records of 15 satellite-based instruments (SATs, with 31 different retrievals) and balloon-borne frost point hygrometers (FPs) launched at 27 globally distributed stations. These comparisons of measurements during the period 2000–2016 are made using robust, consistent statistical methods. With some exceptions, the biases and drifts determined for most SAT–FP pairs are < 10 % and < 1 % yr−1.
J. Douglas Goetz, Lars E. Kalnajs, Terry Deshler, Sean M. Davis, Martina Bramberger, and M. Joan Alexander
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 791–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-791-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-791-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
An instrument for in situ continuous 2 km vertical profiles of temperature below high-altitude balloons was developed for high-temporal-resolution measurements within the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing. The mechanical, electrical, and temperature calibration systems were validated from a short mid-latitude constant-altitude balloon flight within the lower stratosphere. The instrument observed small-scale and inertial gravity waves.
Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Niramson Azouz, Viktoria F. Sofieva, Daan Hubert, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Peter Effertz, Gérard Ancellet, Doug A. Degenstein, Daniel Zawada, Lucien Froidevaux, Stacey Frith, Jeannette Wild, Sean Davis, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Thierry Leblanc, Richard Querel, Kleareti Tourpali, Robert Damadeo, Eliane Maillard Barras, René Stübi, Corinne Vigouroux, Carlo Arosio, Gerald Nedoluha, Ian Boyd, Roeland Van Malderen, Emmanuel Mahieu, Dan Smale, and Ralf Sussmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11657–11673, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11657-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
An updated evaluation up to 2020 of stratospheric ozone profile long-term trends at extrapolar latitudes based on satellite and ground-based records is presented. Ozone increase in the upper stratosphere is confirmed, with significant trends at most latitudes. In this altitude region, a very good agreement is found with trends derived from chemistry–climate model simulations. Observed and modelled trends diverge in the lower stratosphere, but the differences are non-significant.
Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Sean Davis, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7523–7538, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7523-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric water vapor is important for Earth's overall greenhouse effect and for ozone chemistry; however the factors governing its variability on interannual timescales are not fully known, and previous modeling studies have indicated that models struggle to capture this interannual variability. We demonstrate that nonlinear interactions are important for determining overall water vapor concentrations and also that models have improved in their ability to capture these connections.
William G. Read, Gabriele Stiller, Stefan Lossow, Michael Kiefer, Farahnaz Khosrawi, Dale Hurst, Holger Vömel, Karen Rosenlof, Bianca M. Dinelli, Piera Raspollini, Gerald E. Nedoluha, John C. Gille, Yasuko Kasai, Patrick Eriksson, Christopher E. Sioris, Kaley A. Walker, Katja Weigel, John P. Burrows, and Alexei Rozanov
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3377–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3377-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper attempts to provide an assessment of the accuracy of 21 satellite-based instruments that remotely measure atmospheric humidity in the upper troposphere of the Earth's atmosphere. The instruments made their measurements from 1984 to the present time; however, most of these instruments began operations after 2000, and only a few are still operational. The objective of this study is to quantify the accuracy of each satellite humidity data set.
Eric A. Ray, Elliot L. Atlas, Sue Schauffler, Sofia Chelpon, Laura Pan, Harald Bönisch, and Karen H. Rosenlof
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6539–6558, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6539-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6539-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The movement of air masses and the trace gases they contain from the Earth’s surface into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) can have important implications for the radiative and chemical balance of the atmosphere. In this study we build on recent techniques and use new ones to estimate a range of transport diagnostics based on simultaneously measured trace gases in the UTLS during the monsoon season in North America.
Lei Hu, Stephen A. Montzka, Fred Moore, Eric Hintsa, Geoff Dutton, M. Carolina Siso, Kirk Thoning, Robert W. Portmann, Kathryn McKain, Colm Sweeney, Isaac Vimont, David Nance, Bradley Hall, and Steven Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2891–2907, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2891-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The unexpected increase in CFC-11 emissions between 2012 and 2017 resulted in concerns about delaying the stratospheric ozone recovery. Although the subsequent decline of CFC-11 emissions indicated a mitigation in part to this problem, the regions fully responsible for these large emission changes were unclear. Here, our new estimate, based on atmospheric measurements from two global campaigns and from NOAA, suggests Asia primarily contributed to the global CFC-11 emission rise during 2012–2017.
Nicholas A. Davis, Patrick Callaghan, Isla R. Simpson, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 197–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-197-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Specified dynamics schemes attempt to constrain the atmospheric circulation in a climate model to isolate the role of transport in chemical variability, evaluate model physics, and interpret field campaign observations. We show that the specified dynamics scheme in CESM2 erroneously suppresses convection and induces circulation errors that project onto errors in tracers, even using the most optimal settings. Development of a more sophisticated scheme is necessary for future progress.
Yenny Gonzalez, Róisín Commane, Ethan Manninen, Bruce C. Daube, Luke D. Schiferl, J. Barry McManus, Kathryn McKain, Eric J. Hintsa, James W. Elkins, Stephen A. Montzka, Colm Sweeney, Fred Moore, Jose L. Jimenez, Pedro Campuzano Jost, Thomas B. Ryerson, Ilann Bourgeois, Jeff Peischl, Chelsea R. Thompson, Eric Ray, Paul O. Wennberg, John Crounse, Michelle Kim, Hannah M. Allen, Paul A. Newman, Britton B. Stephens, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, Benjamin A. Nault, Eric Morgan, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11113–11132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11113-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11113-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Vertical profiles of N2O and a variety of chemical species and aerosols were collected nearly from pole to pole over the oceans during the NASA Atmospheric Tomography mission. We observed that tropospheric N2O variability is strongly driven by the influence of stratospheric air depleted in N2O, especially at middle and high latitudes. We also traced the origins of biomass burning and industrial emissions and investigated their impact on the variability of tropospheric N2O.
Christina J. Williamson, Agnieszka Kupc, Andrew Rollins, Jan Kazil, Karl D. Froyd, Eric A. Ray, Daniel M. Murphy, Gregory P. Schill, Jeff Peischl, Chelsea Thompson, Ilann Bourgeois, Thomas B. Ryerson, Glenn S. Diskin, Joshua P. DiGangi, Donald R. Blake, Thao Paul V. Bui, Maximilian Dollner, Bernadett Weinzierl, and Charles A. Brock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9065–9088, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols in the stratosphere influence climate by scattering and absorbing sunlight and through chemical reactions occurring on the particles’ surfaces. We observed more nucleation mode aerosols (small aerosols, with diameters below 12 nm) in the mid- and high-latitude lowermost stratosphere (8–13 km) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than in the Southern Hemisphere. The most likely cause of this is aircraft emissions, which are concentrated in the NH at similar altitudes to our observations.
Lars E. Kalnajs, Sean M. Davis, J. Douglas Goetz, Terry Deshler, Sergey Khaykin, Alex St. Clair, Albert Hertzog, Jerome Bordereau, and Alexey Lykov
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 2635–2648, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-2635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-2635-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This work introduces a novel instrument system for high-resolution atmospheric profiling, which lowers and retracts a suspended instrument package beneath drifting long-duration balloons. During a 100 d circumtropical flight, the instrument collected over a hundred 2 km profiles of temperature, water vapor, clouds, and aerosol at 1 m resolution, yielding unprecedented geographic sampling and vertical resolution measurements of the tropical tropopause layer.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ohad Harari, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Jian Rao, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Fiona M. O'Connor, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3725–3740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and El Niño is the dominant mode of variability in the ocean–atmosphere system. The connection between El Niño and water vapor above ~ 17 km is unclear, with single-model studies reaching a range of conclusions. This study examines this connection in 12 different models. While there are substantial differences among the models, all models appear to capture the fundamental physical processes correctly.
Yuming Jin, Ralph F. Keeling, Eric J. Morgan, Eric Ray, Nicholas C. Parazoo, and Britton B. Stephens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 217–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-217-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-217-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a new atmospheric coordinate (Mθe) based on equivalent potential temperature (θe) but with mass as the unit. This coordinate is useful in studying the spatial and temporal distribution of long-lived chemical tracers (CO2, CH4, O2 / N2, etc.) from sparse data, like airborne observation. Using this coordinate and sparse airborne observation (HIPPO and ATom), we resolve the Northern Hemisphere mass-weighted average CO2 seasonal cycle with high accuracy.
Agnieszka Kupc, Christina J. Williamson, Anna L. Hodshire, Jan Kazil, Eric Ray, T. Paul Bui, Maximilian Dollner, Karl D. Froyd, Kathryn McKain, Andrew Rollins, Gregory P. Schill, Alexander Thames, Bernadett B. Weinzierl, Jeffrey R. Pierce, and Charles A. Brock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15037–15060, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15037-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15037-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical upper troposphere over the Atlantic and Pacific oceans is a major source region of new particles. These particles are associated with the outflow from deep convection. We investigate the processes that govern the formation of these particles and their initial growth and show that none of the formation schemes commonly used in global models are consistent with observations. Using newer schemes indicates that organic compounds are likely important as nucleating and initial growth agents.
Damien Héron, Stephanie Evan, Joris Pianezze, Thibaut Dauhut, Jerome Brioude, Karen Rosenlof, Vincent Noel, Soline Bielli, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Cammas
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-870, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-870, 2020
Publication in ACP not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Upward transport within tropical cyclones of water vapor from the low troposphere into the colder upper troposphere/lower stratosphere can result in the moistening of this region. Balloon observations and model simulations of tropical cyclone Enawo in the less-observed Southwest Indian Ocean (the third most tropical cyclone active region on Earth) are used to show how convective overshoots within Enawo penetrate the tropopause directly, injecting water/ice into the stratosphere.
Cited articles
Abalos, M., Randel, W. J., and Serrano, E.: Variability in upwelling across
the tropical tropopause and correlations with tracers in the lower
stratosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 11505–11517, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11505-2012, 2012.
Abalos, M., Randel, W. J., Kinnison, D. E., and Serrano, E.: Quantifying
tracer transport in the tropical lower stratosphere using WACCM, Atmos. Chem.
Phys., 13, 10591–10607, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10591-2013, 2013.
Abalos, M., Legras, B., Ploeger, F., and Randel, W. J.: Evaluating the
advective Brewer-Dobson circulation in three reanalyses for the period
1979–2012, 120, 7554,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023182, 2015.
Alsing, J.: dlmmc: Dynamical linear model regression for atmospheric
time-series analysis, J. Open Source Softw., 4, 1157,
https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.01157, 2019.
Andrews, D. G., Holton, J. R., and Leovy, C. B.: Middle atmosphere dynamics,
International geophysics series, Academic Press, Orlando, 489
pp., Academic Press, ISBN: 0120585766, 1987.
Ball, W. T., Alsing, J., Mortlock, D. J., Staehelin, J., Haigh, J. D.,
Peter, T., Tummon, F., Stubi, R., Stenke, A., Anderson, J., Bourassa, A.,
Davis, S. M., Degenstein, D., Frith, S., Froidevaux, L., Roth, C., Sofieva,
V., Wang, R., Wild, J., Yu, P. F., Ziemke, J. R., and Rozanov, E. V.:
Evidence for a continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsetting
ozone layer recovery, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1379–1394,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1379-2018, 2018.
Ball, W. T., Alsing, J., Staehelin, J., Davis, S. M., Froidevaux, L., and
Peter, T.: Stratospheric ozone trends for 1985–2018: sensitivity to recent
large variability, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12731–12748,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12731-2019, 2019.
Ball, W. T., Chiodo, G., Abalos, M., Alsing, J., and Stenke, A.:
Inconsistencies between chemistry-climate models and observed lower
stratospheric ozone trends since 1998, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9737–9752,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9737-2020, 2020.
Bognar, K., Tegtmeier, S., Bourassa, A., Roth, C., Warnock, T., Zawada, D.,
and Degenstein, D.: Stratospheric ozone trends for 1984–2021 in the SAGE
II-OSIRIS-SAGE III/ISS composite dataset, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9553–9569,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9553-2022, 2022.
Chipperfield, M. P., Dhomse, S., Hossaini, R., Feng, W. H., Santee, M. L.,
Weber, M., Burrows, J. P., Wild, J. D., Loyola, D., and Coldewey-Egbers, M.:
On the Cause of Recent Variations in Lower Stratospheric Ozone, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 45, 5718–5726, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl078071, 2018.
Chrysanthou, A., Maycock, A. C., Chipperfield, M. P., Dhomse, S., Garny, H.,
Kinnison, D., Akiyoshi, H., Deushi, M., Garcia, R. R., Jockel, P., Kirner,
O., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Revell, L., Rozanov, E., Stenke, A., Tanaka,
T. Y., Visioni, D., and Yamashita, Y.: The effect of atmospheric nudging on
the stratospheric residual circulation in chemistry-climate models, Atmos.
Chem. Phys., 19, 11559–11586, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, 2019.
Davis, S.: The Stratospheric Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized
(SWOOSH) database, NOAA [data set], https://csl.noaa.gov/swoosh, last access: 30 January 2023.
Davis, N. A., Davis, S. M., Portmann, R. W., Ray, E., Rosenlof, K. H., and
Yu, P. F.: A comprehensive assessment of tropical stratospheric upwelling in
the specified dynamics Community Earth System Model 1.2.2-Whole Atmosphere
Community Climate Model (CESM (WACCM)), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 717–734,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-717-2020, 2020.
Davis, N. A., Callaghan, P., Simpson, I. R., and Tilmes, S.: Specified
dynamics scheme impacts on wave-mean flow dynamics, convection, and tracer
transport in CESM2 (WACCM6), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 197–214,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-197-2022, 2022.
Davis, S. M., Rosenlof, K. H., Hassler, B., Hurst, D. F., Read, W. G.,
Vomel, H., Selkirk, H., Fujiwara, M., and Damadeo, R.: The Stratospheric
Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) database: a long-term
database for climate studies, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 461–490,
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-461-2016, 2016.
Davis, S. M., Hegglin, M. I., Fujiwara, M., Dragani, R., Harada, Y.,
Kobayashi, C., Long, C., Manney, G. L., Nash, E. R., Potter, G. L.,
Tegtmeier, S., Wang, T., Wargan, K., and Wright, J. S.: Assessment of upper
tropospheric and stratospheric water vapor and ozone in reanalyses as part
of S-RIP, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12743–12778, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12743-2017, 2017.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P.,
Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P.,
Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N.,
Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S.
B., Hersbach, H., Holm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kallberg, P., Kohler, M.,
Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J. J., Park,
B. K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thepaut, J. N., and Vitart,
F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data
assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Diallo, M., Ern, M., and Ploeger, F.: The advective Brewer-Dobson
circulation in the ERA5 reanalysis: climatology, variability, and trends,
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7515–7544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7515-2021, 2021.
Dietmuller, S., Garny, H., Eichinger, R., and Ball, W. T.: Analysis of
recent lower-stratospheric ozone trends in chemistry climate models, Atmos.
Chem. Phys., 21, 6811–6837, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6811-2021, 2021.
European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF): ERA-Interim Reanalysis, ECMWF [data set], https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim-full-moda/, last access: 10 December 2019.
European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF): ERA-Interim Reanalysis, ECMWF [data set], https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/#!/search?text=ERA5&type=dataset, last access: 10 December 2022.
Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suarez, M. J., Todling, R., Molod, A., Takacs, L.,
Randles, C. A., Darmenov, A., Bosilovich, M. G., Reichle, R., Wargan, K.,
Coy, L., Cullather, R., Draper, C., Akella, S., Buchard, V., Conaty, A., da
Silva, A. M., Gu, W., Kim, G. K., Koster, R., Lucchesi, R., Merkova, D.,
Nielsen, J. E., Partyka, G., Pawson, S., Putman, W., Rienecker, M.,
Schubert, S. D., Sienkiewicz, M., and Zhao, B.: The Modern-Era Retrospective
Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), J. Clim., 30,
5419–5454, https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-16-0758.1, 2017.
GMAO: Inst3_3d_asm_Nv: MERRA-2
3D IAU State, Meteorology Instantaneous 3-hourly (Global Modeling and
Assimilation Office): Goddard Space Flight Center Distributed Active Archive
Center (GSFC DAAC), Greenbelt, MD, USA, NASA Global Monitoring and Assimilation Office, https://doi.org/10.5067/WWQSXQ8IVFW, 2015.
Godin-Beekmann, S., Azouz, N., Sofieva, V. F., Hubert, D., Petropavlovskikh, I., Effertz, P., Ancellet, G., Degenstein, D. A., Zawada, D., Froidevaux, L., Frith, S., Wild, J., Davis, S., Steinbrecht, W., Leblanc, T., Querel, R., Tourpali, K., Damadeo, R., Maillard Barras, E., Stübi, R., Vigouroux, C., Arosio, C., Nedoluha, G., Boyd, I., Van Malderen, R., Mahieu, E., Smale, D., and Sussmann, R.: Updated trends of the stratospheric ozone vertical distribution in the 60∘ S–60∘ N latitude range based on the LOTUS regression model , Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11657–11673, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11657-2022, 2022.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horanyi, A.,
Munoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons,
A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati,
G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D.,
Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer,
A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Holm, E., Janiskova, M.,
Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P.,
Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thepaut, J. N.: The ERA5 global
reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hurrell, J. W., Hack, J. J., Shea, D., Caron, J. M., and Rosinski, J.: A new
sea surface temperature and sea ice boundary dataset for the Community
Atmosphere Model, J. Clim., 21, 5145–5153, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2292.1,
2008.
Hurrell, J. W., Holland, M. M., Gent, P. R., Ghan, S., Kay, J. E., Kushner,
P. J., Lamarque, J. F., Large, W. G., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb,
W. H., Long, M. C., Mahowald, N., Marsh, D. R., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P.,
Vavrus, S., Vertenstein, M., Bader, D., Collins, W. D., Hack, J. J., Kiehl,
J., and Marshall, S.: The Community Earth System Model A Framework for
Collaborative Research, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1339–1360,
https://doi.org/10.1175/Bams-D-12-00121.1, 2013.
Laine, M., Latva-Pukkila, N., and Kyrola, E.: Analysing time-varying trends
in stratospheric ozone time series using the state space approach, Atmos.
Chem. Phys., 14, 9707–9725, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9707-2014, 2014.
Lamarque, J. F., Emmons, L. K., Hess, P. G., Kinnison, D. E., Tilmes, S.,
Vitt, F., Heald, C. L., Holland, E. A., Lauritzen, P. H., Neu, J., Orlando,
J. J., Rasch, P. J., and Tyndall, G. K.: CAM-chem: description and
evaluation of interactive atmospheric chemistry in the Community Earth
System Model, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 369–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-369-2012,
2012.
Marsh, D. R., Mills, M. J., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque, J. F., Calvo, N., and
Polvani, L. M.: Climate Change from 1850 to 2005 Simulated in CESM1(WACCM),
J. Clim., 26, 7372–7391, https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-12-00558.1, 2013.
Martineau, P., Wright, J. S., Zhu, N. L., and Fujiwara, M.: Zonal-mean data
set of global atmospheric reanalyses on pressure levels, Earth Syst. Sci.
Data, 10, 1925–1941, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1925-2018, 2018.
NASA Global Monitoring and Assimilation Office: MERRA2 Reanalysis [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/WWQSXQ8IVFW8, 2023.
Orbe, C., Oman, L. D., Strahan, S. E., Waugh, D. W., Pawson, S., Takacs, L.
L., and Molod, A. M.: Large-Scale Atmospheric Transport in GEOS Replay
Simulations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 9, 2545–2560, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017ms001053, 2017.
Orbe, C., Wargan, K., Pawson, S., and Oman, L. D.: Mechanisms Linked to
Recent Ozone Decreases in the Northern Hemisphere Lower Stratosphere, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD031631,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031631, 2020.
Ploeger, F., Konopka, P., Muller, R., Fueglistaler, S., Schmidt, T.,
Manners, J. C., Grooss, J. U., Gunther, G., Forster, P. M., and Riese, M.:
Horizontal transport affecting trace gas seasonality in the Tropical
Tropopause Layer (TTL), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D09303,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jd017267, 2012.
Ploeger, F., Diallo, M., Charlesworth, E., Konopka, P., Legras, B., Laube,
J. C., Grooss, J. U., Gunther, G., Engel, A., and Riese, M.: The
stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation inferred from age of air in the ERA5
reanalysis, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8393–8412, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8393-2021,
2021.
Randel, W. J., and Jensen, E. J.: Physical processes in the tropical
tropopause layer and their roles in a changing climate, Nat. Geosci., 6,
169–176, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1733, 2013.
Rosenlof, K. H.: Seasonal Cycle of the Residual Mean Meridional Circulation
in the Stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 100, 5173–5191, https://doi.org/10.1029/94jd03122,
1995.
Seviour, W. J. M., Butchart, N., and Hardiman, S. C.: The Brewer-Dobson
circulation inferred from ERA-Interim, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 878–888,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.966,
2012.
Thompson, A. M., Stauffer, R. M., Wargan, K., Witte, J. C., Kollonige, D.
E., and Ziemke, J. R.: Regional and Seasonal Trends in Tropical Ozone From
SHADOZ Profiles: Reference for Models and Satellite Products, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 126, e2021JD034691,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034691, 2021.
Wargan, K., Orbe, C., Pawson, S., Ziemke, J. R., Oman, L. D., Olsen, M. A.,
Coy, L., and Knowland, K. E.: Recent Decline in Extratropical Lower
Stratospheric Ozone Attributed to Circulation Changes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45,
5166–5176, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl077406, 2018.
WMO: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2022, GAW Report No. 278,
Geneva, World Meteorological Organization, ISBN: 978-9914-733-97-6, 2022.
Wright, J. S., Sun, X. Y., Konopka, P., Kruger, K., Legras, B., Molod, A.
M., Tegtmeier, S., Zhang, G. J., and Zhao, X.: Differences in tropical high
clouds among reanalyses: origins and radiative impacts, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20,
8989–9030, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8989-2020, 2020.
Short summary
Ozone in the lower part of the stratosphere has not increased and has perhaps even continued to decline in recent decades. This study demonstrates that the amount of ozone in this region is highly sensitive to the amount of air upwelling into the stratosphere in the tropics and that simulations from a climate model nudged to historical meteorological fields often fail to accurately capture the variations in tropical upwelling that control short-term trends in lower-stratospheric ozone.
Ozone in the lower part of the stratosphere has not increased and has perhaps even continued to...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint