Articles | Volume 23, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3347-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3347-2023
Research article
 | 
17 Mar 2023
Research article |  | 17 Mar 2023

The role of tropical upwelling in explaining discrepancies between recent modeled and observed lower-stratospheric ozone trends

Sean M. Davis, Nicholas Davis, Robert W. Portmann, Eric Ray, and Karen Rosenlof

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Cited articles

Abalos, M., Randel, W. J., and Serrano, E.: Variability in upwelling across the tropical tropopause and correlations with tracers in the lower stratosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 11505–11517, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11505-2012, 2012. 
Abalos, M., Randel, W. J., Kinnison, D. E., and Serrano, E.: Quantifying tracer transport in the tropical lower stratosphere using WACCM, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10591–10607, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10591-2013, 2013. 
Abalos, M., Legras, B., Ploeger, F., and Randel, W. J.: Evaluating the advective Brewer-Dobson circulation in three reanalyses for the period 1979–2012, 120, 7554, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023182, 2015. 
Alsing, J.: dlmmc: Dynamical linear model regression for atmospheric time-series analysis, J. Open Source Softw., 4, 1157, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.01157, 2019. 
Andrews, D. G., Holton, J. R., and Leovy, C. B.: Middle atmosphere dynamics, International geophysics series, Academic Press, Orlando, 489 pp., Academic Press, ISBN: 0120585766, 1987. 
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Short summary
Ozone in the lower part of the stratosphere has not increased and has perhaps even continued to decline in recent decades. This study demonstrates that the amount of ozone in this region is highly sensitive to the amount of air upwelling into the stratosphere in the tropics and that simulations from a climate model nudged to historical meteorological fields often fail to accurately capture the variations in tropical upwelling that control short-term trends in lower-stratospheric ozone.
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