Articles | Volume 22, issue 24
Research article
16 Dec 2022
Research article |  | 16 Dec 2022

Combining short-range dispersion simulations with fine-scale meteorological ensembles: probabilistic indicators and evaluation during a 85Kr field campaign

Youness El-Ouartassy, Irène Korsakissok, Matthieu Plu, Olivier Connan, Laurent Descamps, and Laure Raynaud

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Cited articles

Aliyu, A. S., Evangeliou, N., Mousseau, T. A., Wu, J., and Ramli, A. T.: An overview of current knowledge concerning the health and environmental consequences of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident, Environ. Int., 85, 213–228,, 2015. a
Bollhöfer, A., Schlosser, C., Schmid, S., Konrad, M., Purtschert, R., and Krais, R.: Half a century of Krypton-85 activity concentration measured in air over Central Europe: Trends and relevance for dating young groundwater, J. Environ. Radioactiv., 205, 7–16,, 2019. a
Bouttier, F. and Raynaud, L.: Clustering and selection of boundary conditions for limited-area ensemble prediction, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 2381–2391,, 2018. a
Bouttier, F., Vié, B., Nuissier, O., and Raynaud, L.: Impact of stochastic physics in a convection-permitting ensemble, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 3706–3721,, 2012. a, b, c
Bouttier, F., Raynaud, L., Nuissier, O., and Ménétrier, B.: Sensitivity of the AROME ensemble to initial and surface perturbations during HyMeX, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 390–403,, 2016. a
Short summary
This work investigates the potential value of using fine-scale meteorological ensembles to represent the inherent meteorological uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion model outputs. Probabilistic scores were used to evaluate the probabilistic performance of dispersion ensembles, using an original dataset of new continuous 85Kr air concentration measurements and a well-known source term. The results show that the ensemble dispersion simulations perform better than deterministic ones.
Final-revised paper