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ACP | Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3589–3607, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3589-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3589–3607, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3589-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 25 Mar 2020

Research article | 25 Mar 2020

Application of linear minimum variance estimation to the multi-model ensemble of atmospheric radioactive Cs-137 with observations

Daisuke Goto et al.

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Cited articles

Amante, C. and Eakins, B. W.: ETOPO1 Global relief model converted to panmap layer format. NOAA-National geophysical Data Center, PANGAEA, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.769615, 2009. 
Byun, D. and Schere, K. L.: Review of the governing equations, computational algorithms, and other components of the Model-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, App. Mech. Rev., 59, 51–77, 2006. 
Casanova, S. and Ahrens, B.: On the weighting of multimodel ensembles in seasonal and short-range weather forecasting, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 3811–3822, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2893.1, 2009. 
Chang, J. C., and Hanna, S. R.: Air quality model performance evaluation, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 87, 167–196, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-003-0070-7, 2004. 
Chino, M., Nakayama, H., Nagai, H., Terada, H., Katata, G., and Yamazawa, H.: Preliminary estimation of release amounts of 131I and 137Cs accidentally discharged from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant into the atmosphere, J. Nucl. Sci. Technol., 48, 1129–1134, 2011. 
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To obtain reliable distribution of atmospheric Cs-137 emitted from the Fukushima accident, we proposed a multi-model ensemble (MME) method using observations. We found the MME-estimated Cs-137 concentrations using all available observations had lower bias, lower uncertainty, higher correlation and higher precision against the observations compared to single-model results. It can be applied not only to the Cs-137 distribution but also any atmospheric materials such as PM2.5 distribution.
To obtain reliable distribution of atmospheric Cs-137 emitted from the Fukushima accident, we...
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