Articles | Volume 18, issue 23
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17099–17117, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17099-2018

Special issue: The SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) (ACP/ESSD...

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17099–17117, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17099-2018

Research article 04 Dec 2018

Research article | 04 Dec 2018

Quantifying the variability of the annular modes: reanalysis uncertainty vs. sampling uncertainty

Edwin P. Gerber and Patrick Martineau

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Cited articles

Ambaum, M. H. P., Hoskins, B. J., and Stephenson, D. B.: Arctic Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation?, J. Climate, 14, 3495–3507, 2001. a
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes, Science, 294, 581–584, 2001. a, b, c, d, e
Baldwin, M. P. and Thompson, D. W. J.: A critical comparison of stratosphere-troposphere coupling indices, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 1661–1672, 2009. a
Baldwin, M. P., Stephenson, D. B., Thompson, D. W. J., Dunkerton, T. J., Charlton, A. J., and O'Neill, A.: Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts, Science, 301, 636–640, 2003. a, b, c, d
Barnes, E. A. and Hartmann, D. L.: Testing a theory for the effect of latitude on the persistence of eddy-driven jets using CMIP3 simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L15801, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044144, 2010. a, b
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The annular modes characterize the variability of the extratropical circulation. We show that they are extremely consistent across all reanalyses during the satellite era (1979 onward). Consequently, uncertainty in the annual cycle of variability of the tropospheric jet streams and their coupling with the stratospheric polar vortices is dominated by sampling uncertainty. Pre-satellite reanalysis of the Northern Hemisphere appears to be of high quality and can help reduce this uncertainty.
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