Articles | Volume 18, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17099-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17099-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Dec 2018
Research article |
| 04 Dec 2018
| 04 Dec 2018
Quantifying the variability of the annular modes: reanalysis uncertainty vs. sampling uncertainty
Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, 251 Mercer Street, New York, NY 10012, USA
Patrick Martineau
Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
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- Parallel Comparison of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in CESM1-WACCM and CESM2-WACCM S. Liu et al. 10.3390/atmos10110679
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27 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The effect of interactive ozone chemistry on weak and strong stratospheric polar vortex events J. Oehrlein et al. 10.5194/acp-20-10531-2020
- The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere D. Domeisen et al. 10.1029/2019JD030920
- Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts P. Hitchcock et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022
- Are Sudden Stratospheric Warmings Preceded by Anomalous Tropospheric Wave Activity? A. Cámara et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0269.1
- Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems Z. Lawrence et al. 10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022
- Contrasting stratospheric–tropospheric multi-fractal behaviors in NAM variability D. Nian & Z. Fu 10.1007/s00382-019-04981-0
- Differences between the 2018 and 2019 stratospheric polar vortex split events A. Butler et al. 10.1002/qj.3858
- On the Increased Precipitation Recycling by Large-Scale Irrigation over the Haihe Plain Y. Gui et al. 10.1007/s13351-022-1220-5
- Seasonally dependent increases in subweekly temperature variability over Southern Hemisphere landmasses detected in multiple reanalyses P. Martineau et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024
- Impact of Strong and Weak Stratospheric Polar Vortices on the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere N. Pedatella & V. Harvey 10.1029/2022GL098877
- Impact of Satellite Observations on Forecasting Sudden Stratospheric Warmings S. Noguchi et al. 10.1029/2019GL086233
- Impact of strong and weak stratospheric polar vortices on geomagnetic semidiurnal solar and lunar tides S. Kumar et al. 10.1186/s40623-023-01810-x
- Parallel Comparison of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in CESM1-WACCM and CESM2-WACCM S. Liu et al. 10.3390/atmos10110679
- Interannual variability of summer surface mass balance and surface melting in the Amundsen sector, West Antarctica M. Donat-Magnin et al. 10.5194/tc-14-229-2020
- Modulations of North American and European Weather Variability and Extremes by Interdecadal Variability of the Atmospheric Circulation over the North Atlantic Sector P. Martineau et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0977.1
- Influence of Stratosphere Polar Vortex Variability on the Mesosphere, Thermosphere, and Ionosphere N. Pedatella 10.1029/2023JA031495
- Subseasonal predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation J. Albers & M. Newman 10.1088/1748-9326/abe781
- Is our dynamical understanding of the circulation changes associated with the Antarctic ozone hole sensitive to the choice of reanalysis dataset? A. Orr et al. 10.5194/acp-21-7451-2021
- The stratosphere: a review of the dynamics and variability N. Butchart 10.5194/wcd-3-1237-2022
- Statistical Learning Methods as a Basis for Skillful Seasonal Temperature Forecasts in Europe M. Kämäräinen et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0765.1
- The wave geometry of final stratospheric warming events A. Butler & D. Domeisen 10.5194/wcd-2-453-2021
- Statistical Characteristics of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in CESM1-WACCM: A Comparison with the JRA55 and NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses C. Cao et al. 10.3390/atmos10090519
- The Influence of the Stratosphere on the Tropical Troposphere P. HAYNES et al. 10.2151/jmsj.2021-040
- Tropopause-level planetary wave source and its role in two-way troposphere–stratosphere coupling L. Boljka & T. Birner 10.5194/wcd-1-555-2020
- Tropical Pacific Influence on Summertime South African High‐Frequency Temperature Variability and Heat Waves P. Martineau et al. 10.1029/2022GL101983
- On the value of reanalyses prior to 1979 for dynamical studies of stratosphere–troposphere coupling P. Hitchcock 10.5194/acp-19-2749-2019
- Observed Relationships Between Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and European Climate Extremes A. King et al. 10.1029/2019JD030480
Latest update: 14 Dec 2024
Short summary
The annular modes characterize the variability of the extratropical circulation. We show that they are extremely consistent across all reanalyses during the satellite era (1979 onward). Consequently, uncertainty in the annual cycle of variability of the tropospheric jet streams and their coupling with the stratospheric polar vortices is dominated by sampling uncertainty. Pre-satellite reanalysis of the Northern Hemisphere appears to be of high quality and can help reduce this uncertainty.
The annular modes characterize the variability of the extratropical circulation. We show that...
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