Articles | Volume 24, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
18 Jul 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 18 Jul 2024
| 18 Jul 2024
Using historical temperature to constrain the climate sensitivity, the transient climate response, and aerosol-induced cooling
Olaf Morgenstern
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, Aotearoa / New Zealand
School of Physical and Chemical Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, Aotearoa / New Zealand
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Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-438, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Ben T. Johnson, Ron Kahana, James Keeble, Byeonghyeon Kim, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Mark Richardson, Eddy Robertson, Jeongbyn Seo, Sungbo Shim, João C. Teixeira, Steven T. Turnock, Jonny Williams, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Stephanie Woodward, and Guang Zeng
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Short summary
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This paper calculates how changes in emissions and/or concentrations of different atmospheric constituents since the pre-industrial era have altered the Earth's energy budget at the present day using a metric called effective radiative forcing. The impact of land use change is also assessed. We find that individual contributions do not add linearly, and different Earth system interactions can affect the magnitude of the calculated effective radiative forcing.
Peter Kuma, Adrian J. McDonald, Olaf Morgenstern, Richard Querel, Israel Silber, and Connor J. Flynn
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Executive editor
The question of the climate sensitivity of CMIP models (used for IPCC) is a central question regarding the reliability of climate projections. Aerosol aspects are central here
The question of the climate sensitivity of CMIP models (used for IPCC) is a central question...
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I use errors in climate model simulations to derive correction factors for the impacts of greenhouse gases and particles that bring these simulated temperature fields into agreement with an observational reconstruction of the Earth's temperature. On average across eight models, a reduction by about one-half of the particle-induced cooling would be required, causing only 0.24 K of cooling since 1850–1899. The greenhouse gas warming simulated by several highly sensitive models would also reduce.
I use errors in climate model simulations to derive correction factors for the impacts of...
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