Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
ACP
Articles | Volume 24, issue 14
Articles | Volume 24, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 24, issue 14
Research article
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18 Jul 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 18 Jul 2024

Using historical temperature to constrain the climate sensitivity, the transient climate response, and aerosol-induced cooling

Olaf Morgenstern

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Latest update: 27 Jul 2024
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The question of the climate sensitivity of CMIP models (used for IPCC) is a central question regarding the reliability of climate projections. Aerosol aspects are central here
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Short summary
I use errors in climate model simulations to derive correction factors for the impacts of greenhouse gases and particles that bring these simulated temperature fields into agreement with an observational reconstruction of the Earth's temperature. On average across eight models, a reduction by about one-half of the particle-induced cooling would be required, causing only 0.24 K of cooling since 1850–1899. The greenhouse gas warming simulated by several highly sensitive models would also reduce.
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