Using historical temperature to constrain the climate sensitivity, the transient climate response, and aerosol-induced cooling

Morgenstern, Olaf

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024

Articles | Volume 24, issue 14

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 24, issue 14

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

18 Jul 2024

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 18 Jul 2024

Using historical temperature to constrain the climate sensitivity, the transient climate response, and aerosol-induced cooling

Olaf Morgenstern

Data sets

Scripts and data for "Using historical temperature to constrain the climate sensitivity, the transient climate response, and aerosol-induced cooling", to appear in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Olaf Morgenstern https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11366923

Model code and software

Scripts and data for "Using historical temperature to constrain the climate sensitivity, the transient climate response, and aerosol-induced cooling", to appear in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Olaf Morgenstern https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11366923

Short summary

I use errors in climate model simulations to derive correction factors for the impacts of greenhouse gases and particles that bring these simulated temperature fields into agreement with an observational reconstruction of the Earth's temperature. On average across eight models, a reduction by about one-half of the particle-induced cooling would be required, causing only 0.24 K of cooling since 1850–1899. The greenhouse gas warming simulated by several highly sensitive models would also reduce.