Articles | Volume 22, issue 13
Research article
08 Jul 2022
Research article |  | 08 Jul 2022

Volcanic stratospheric injections up to 160 Tg(S) yield a Eurasian winter warming indistinguishable from internal variability

Kevin DallaSanta and Lorenzo M. Polvani

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Subject: Aerosols | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
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Cited articles

Azoulay, A., Schmidt, H., and Timmreck, C.: The Arctic Polar Vortex Response to Volcanic Forcing of Different Strengths, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD034450​​​​​​​,, 2021. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q, r, s, t, u, v, w
Baldwin, M.: The Arctic Oscillation and its role in stratosphere-troposphere coupling, SPARC Newsletter, 14, 10–14​​​​​​​, 2000. a
Baldwin, M. P. and Thompson, D. W.: A critical comparison of stratosphere–troposphere coupling indices, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 1661–1672,, 2009. a
Banerjee, A., Butler, A. H., Polvani, L. M., Robock, A., Simpson, I. R., and Sun, L.: Robust winter warming over Eurasia under stratospheric sulfate geoengineering – the role of stratospheric dynamics, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6985–6997,, 2021. a
Bittner, M.: On the discrepancy between observed and simulated dynamical responses of Northern Hemisphere winter climate to large tropical volcanic eruptions, PhD thesis, Univerisity of Hamburg, Reports on Earth System Science, no. 173, 2015. a, b
Short summary
Volcanic eruptions cool the earth by reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the surface. Paradoxically, it has been suggested that they may also warm the surface, but the evidence for this is scant. Here, we show that a small warming can be seen in a climate model for large-enough eruptions. However, even for eruptions much larger than those that have occurred in the past two millennia, post-eruption winters over Eurasia are indistinguishable from those occurring without a prior eruption.
Final-revised paper