Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
Research article
14 Feb 2019
Research article |  | 14 Feb 2019

Evaluating solar radiation forecast uncertainty

Minttu Tuononen, Ewan J. O'Connor, and Victoria A. Sinclair

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Subject: Clouds and Precipitation | Research Activity: Remote Sensing | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
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Cited articles

Ahlgrimm, M. and Forbes, R.: The impact of low clouds on surface shortwave radiation in the ECMWF model, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 3783–3794,, 2012. a, b, c, d
Barrett, A. I., Hogan, R. J., and Forbes, R. M.: Why are mixed-phase altocumulus clouds poorly predicted by large-scale models? Part 1. Physical processes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 9903–9926,, 2017. a
Boilley, A. and Wald, L.: Comparison between meteorological re-analyses from ERA-Interim and MERRA and measurements of daily solar irradiation at surface, Renew. Energ., 75, 135–143,, 2015. a
Bozzo, A., Remy, S., Benedetti, A., Flemming, J., Bechtold, P., Rodwell, M., and Morcrette, J.-J.: Implementation of a CAMS-based aerosol climatology in the IFS, ECMWF, Technical Memorandum, 801,, 2017. a
Forbes, R. M. and Ahlgrimm, M.: On the representation of high-latitude boundary layer mixed-phase cloud in the ECMWF global model, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 3425–3445,, 2014. a, b
Short summary
Many applications require accurate forecasts of the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface, such as solar energy and UV radiation forecasts. This also means that cloud must be correctly forecast. We investigated the skill of these forecasts over Helsinki, Finland, using cloud and solar radiation observations. We found that there were errors in the model radiation forecast even when the clouds were correctly forecast, which we attribute to incorrect representation of the cloud properties.
Final-revised paper